Mariners Visit Rangers, Series Feels Like Precipice
| MARINERS (7-10) | ΔMs | RANGERS (9-6) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -7.8 (24th) | -4.1 | -3.3 (18th) | Rangers |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 2.2 (11th) | -0.3 | 3.5 (10th) | Rangers |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 6.5 (5th) | 4.2 | 3.3 (8th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 0.8 (13th) | 1.4 | -0.6 (17th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 1.8 (13th) | 2.3 | 2.9 (10th) | RANGERS |
Every game counts equally. Every regular season game, that is. But each game is merely 1/162th of eventual total. That’s not much, rationally. But our rational selves and our emotional selves do not communicate well. I can’t put a scientific label on it, but the difference between seeing the Mariners travel to Texas with a 7-10 record and seeing the Mariners travel to Texas with a 6-11 record seems enormous, even though it isn’t.
The Tigers came to town with a great hitting offense and entered a park that, in a stupidly small sample so far, hadn’t spelled doom like it had last year. In fact , you can’t even spell doom with Safeco Field because you don’t have an ‘m’. Anyways, the Tigers had a bunch of dangerous and hot — whatever that means (nothing) — hitters and the Mariners pitchers shut them down.
I don’t have much more to say in general. I’m going to back to trying to work and keeping tabs on Boston.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | K (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw% | Ct% | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Morales^ | 52 | 3.7 | .304/.396/.478 | 6 | 9 (6) | 8 / 5 / 0 / 1 | 44 | 78 | 135 |
| J Smoak^ | 49 | 4.0 | .227/.306/.250 | 5 | 11 (9) | 9 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 43 | 73 | 137 |
| K Seager* | 48 | 4.5 | .200/.250/.333 | 3 | 8 (7) | 3 / 6 / 0 / 0 | 39 | 80 | 92 |
| D Ackley* | 42 | 4.3 | .175/.262/.200 | 2 | 8 (7) | 6 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 41 | 84 | 100 |
| M Morse | 41 | 4.2 | .211/.293/.395 | 3 | 12 (12) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 52 | 68 | 176 |
| B Ryan | 38 | 3.8 | .143/.184/.143 | 2 | 9 (6) | 5 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 41 | 85 | 81 |
| F Gutierrez | 36 | 4.3 | .229/.250/.543 | 1 | 10 (9) | 3 / 2 / 0 / 3 | 46 | 79 | 86 |
| R Ibanez* | 36 | 4.1 | .235/.278/.471 | 2 | 11 (10) | 4 / 2 / 0 / 2 | 41 | 73 | 137 |
| J Bay | 33 | 4.1 | .207/.303/.345 | 4 | 12 (10) | 4 / 1 / 0 / 1 | 37 | 67 | 179 |
| J Montero | 32 | 3.5 | .194/.219/.226 | 1 | 5 (5) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 51 | 70 | 165 |
| R Andino | 21 | 4.3 | .200/.238/.300 | 1 | 4 (2) | 2 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 35 | 78 | 115 |
| K Shoppach | 20 | 4.4 | .333/.400/.611 | 2 | 7 (6) | 3 / 2 / 0 / 1 | 46 | 70 | 155 |
At least they’re not (yet?) the league’s worst offense. That’s an improvement!
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | SO (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw% | Ct% | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Andrus | 50 | 4.0 | .200/.280/.200 | 5 | 7 (4) | 9 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 41 | 80 | 130 |
| I Kinsler | 48 | 4.1 | .349/.438/.628 | 5 | 4 (4) | 11 / 0 / 0 / 4 | 41 | 89 | 116 |
| N Cruz | 47 | 4.1 | .244/.277/.444 | 2 | 12 (10) | 6 / 3 / 0 / 2 | 50 | 70 | 129 |
| A Beltre | 45 | 4.0 | .256/.319/.465 | 2 | 3 (2) | 6 / 3 / 0 / 2 | 46 | 87 | 151 |
| D Murphy* | 43 | 3.3 | .143/.186/.286 | 1 | 7 (2) | 3 / 1 / 1 / 1 | 49 | 89 | 83 |
| M Moreland* | 42 | 4.1 | .211/.310/.395 | 4 | 7 (6) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 42 | 77 | 143 |
| A Pierzynski* | 36 | 3.1 | .286/.333/.514 | 1 | 8 (6) | 7 / 0 / 1 / 2 | 57 | 81 | 170 |
| L Berkman^ | 31 | 4.1 | .308/.419/.577 | 5 | 5 (5) | 3 / 4 / 0 / 1 | 40 | 69 | 90 |
| L Martin* | 23 | 3.9 | .250/.348/.250 | 3 | 5 (3) | 5 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 46 | 71 | 55 |
| C Gentry | 22 | 4.3 | .167/.318/.222 | 4 | 5 (2) | 2 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 40 | 82 | 149 |
The Rangers are perhaps a tad fortunate to have a 9-6 record given that they’ve played somewhat pedestrian baseball to date, but it’s early.
| MARINERS | ΔMs | RANGERS | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | -1.9 (21st) | -0.8 | 7.3 (4th) | Rangers |
| OUTFIELD | 4.1 (10th) | 0.5 | -3.9 (25th) | Mariners |
| RBBIP | 0.300 (10th) | +.004 | 0.288 (6th) | Rangers |
| OVERALL | 2.2 (11th) | -0.3 | 3.5 (10th) | RANGERS |
It’s a tad surprising to see the defensive ranks fall a skosh after how well the Tigers were prevented from getting hits or runs. Eight runs and 24 hits over 32 innings is quite suppressive, but it turns out to have been mostly the work of the pitchers this time as Tiger hitters struck out a remarkable 42 times against only 10 walks drawn.
19 APR 17:05 – YU DARVISH vs JOE SAUNDERS*
Does Yu Darvish have the best “stuff” in baseball?
Yeah, it certainly seems that way. All the more remarkable that he ever struggles against the Mariners.
Darvish is poor at controlling it, but nobody can hit anything he throws. In fact, since the start of last season the only starter with at least 50 innings pitched and a lower contact rate than Darvish is Francisco Liriano and he makes Darvish’s control seem like Cliff Lee’s.
Meanwhile, on the other side of this tilt is Joe Saunders.
Oh.
20 APR 17:05 – NICK TEPESCH vs BRANDON MAURER
Maurer and Tepesch have samples that are too small for me to care what their scouting graphs say at this point.
21 APR 12:05 – JUSTIN GRIMM vs AARON HARANG
Ditto Justin Grimm. For a team with judicious playoff expectations, the Rangers rotation sure is kinda meh. Here’s Aaron Harang though, not matching the one-so-far excellent performance that he is sure to repeat all season.
Like the hitting rundowns, I also do ones for the bullpen. They require longer sample windows since relievers are naturally so variant and don’t pitch all that often. As you can see with Luetge’s presence, this isn’t exclusive to who is on the team currently, but who has pitched in the past four weeks with a minimum of 20 batters faced.
| Reliever | BF | Str% | nBB | Ct% | K(sw) | GB% | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Capps | 45 | 66.1 | 2 | 65.5 | 14 (12) | 24.1 | 2 | 129.7 | 1.4 |
| C Furbush* | 32 | 54.6 | 8 | 58.5 | 11 (10) | 53.8 | 1 | 81.9 | 1.1 |
| K Loe | 31 | 63.7 | 1 | 81.3 | 3 (3) | 37.0 | 6 | 156.1 | 0.7 |
| T Wilhelmsen | 30 | 64.0 | 4 | 89.6 | 5 (4) | 47.6 | 0 | 85.5 | 1.8 |
| O Perez* | 28 | 67.7 | 2 | 76.6 | 7 (6) | 05.3 | 1 | 117.0 | 1.2 |
| S Pryor | 26 | 64.7 | 1 | 86.8 | 7 (3) | 38.9 | 0 | 122.6 | 1.7 |
| L Luetge* | 20 | 65.1 | 0 | 71.9 | 3 (3) | 41.2 | 0 | 101.5 | 0.5 |
Qual here is the same qual as above, except that for pitchers you want them to be below 100. And LI is leverage index, so you have get an idea of which pitchers are being deployed in what roles.
Oliver Perez this season has had 20 batted balls and only one grounder.
| Reliever | BF | Str% | nBB | Ct% | K(sw) | GB% | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Ortiz* | 39 | 70.7 | 0 | 75.6 | 9 (6) | 40.0 | 0 | 121.4 | 0.7 |
| T Scheppers | 27 | 67.7 | 2 | 77.8 | 5 (3) | 50.0 | 0 | 121.5 | 0.9 |
| J Nathan | 26 | 65.3 | 2 | 68.2 | 7 (6) | 41.2 | 0 | 121.9 | 1.9 |
| R Ross* | 23 | 69.7 | 2 | 83.7 | 3 (2) | 38.9 | 0 | 143.3 | 1.9 |
| M Kirkman* | 23 | 63.2 | 2 | 80.0 | 5 (2) | 37.5 | 0 | 146.8 | 0.7 |
Time to dinger these guys up.
Comments
8 Responses to “Mariners Visit Rangers, Series Feels Like Precipice”
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That Darvish graph is just crazy!
You should bring back the series beer!
Morse’s stats are wrong FYI.
All the Mariner hitting stats are wrong. Haven’t checked to see if the ranger stats are right.
It’s last 2 weeks. Not season long.
In the eternal battle of Matthew vs. the commenters, I will place my bet on Matthew every time.
Not to be critical, but is there really much value in listing information about someone like Kameron Loe (not with the team) or Pryor (clearly won’t be pitching this series)?
The “value” is, I imagine, Matthew can automate the table generation and then spend more time looking at the numbers rather than waste time having to do every little thing by hand.
Loe pitched for the team in the last two weeks, so he’s included in the table. I don’t see that it matters.