The Mariners Kick off a Series in Chicago
| MARINERS (2-2) | WHITE SOX (2-1) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | 0.7 (14th) | -2.8 (20th) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 3.0 (7th) | 1.0 (9th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 2.0 (4th) | 1.8 (5th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -1.0 (24th) | 0.7 (11th) | White Sox |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 4.6 (11th) | 0.8 (15th) | MARINERS |
Hello there, you may not be familiar with my series preview breakdowns. I did these, in evolving formats, for years at Lookout Landing and I hope to continue doing them here. I’ll do so even if only for my own benefit since the above and below charts are informative for me and I like to get the periodic checks on how the composite units of the Mariners are doing.
Since this may be new to you, I’ll run through what each row means. Hitting is judged on each team’s park-adjusted wOBA to date. I’m using the wOBA from my site, StatCorner.com, so that answers any questions on why it might be slightly different than FanGraphs.com or whatever your preferred site shows.
xRA is laid out in a really long post here, but the simple take is that it’s xFIP meets tRA. That is, it’s xFIP plus batted ball types and whether or not the batted balls were pulled or hit the other way.
| MARINERS | WHITE SOX | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | 3.4 (2nd) | 5.3 (1st) | White Sox |
| OUTFIELD | -0.4 (15th) | -4.3 (26th) | Mariners |
| RBBIP | 0.245 (8th) | 0.263 (10th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL | 3.0 (7th) | 1.0 (9th) | MARINERS |
Fielding is judged by looking at how often each team allows a ball in play to result in a runner on base via either a hit or error. There’s more explanation available, but the 10,000-foot view is to take all the balls in play, adjust them for the park (yes, it has an effect), and then for each type (e.g. grounder, liner), figure out how often they should turn into outs and the cost (in run value) of not turning them into an out. Then add it all up. It can’t be used to judge individual defenders, but I’m not convinced of any metrics’ worth at doing that anyways.
Above, I split the fielding into infield and outfield units based on who I judge is responsible for fielding each batted ball type. Unremarkably, the Mariners are already showing a divergence between their infield defenders and their outfielders.
05 APR 17:10 – JOSE QUINTANA* vs BLAKE BEAVAN
I used to include what I thought were pretty cool illustrated and interactive charts here for each starting pitcher. Alas, they rely on external javascript to build and WordPress is so so lame. If anyone has experience in this manner, please get in touch with me. I’m going to continue working toward some presentation solution, but for now, here are the dates, times and starting pitchers!
06 APR 10:10 – DYLAN AXELROD vs FELIX HERNANDEZ
07 APR 11:10 – CHRIS SALE* vs HISASHI IWAKUMA
You Are Going To Like Michael Morse
The Mariners, at this writing, have played four games of the 2013 regular season, and they’ve gone more or less as expected. Felix pitched well, Iwakuma pitched well, Saunders and Maurer pitched less well, and the offense mashed some dingers. Thursday afternoon, the M’s dropped to 2-2 after starting out 2-0, but there’s little shame in splitting a road series against the defending division champs. Now then, this isn’t actually about the Mariners, but rather one particular Mariner, a new one and also an old one. I work for FanGraphs, and I love it, and FanGraphs has live-updating leaderboards. Which means their leaderboards have already taken into account Thursday’s action. I’m looking at the leaderboards, and what I’m seeing is that Michael Morse has already topped his 2010 WAR, and his 2012 WAR. Michael Morse has played four games.
Granted, the present WAR doesn’t yet include UZR, because it hasn’t even been a week, but because it hasn’t even been a week UZR isn’t going to say anything. And granted, in 2010 Morse wasn’t that valuable, and in 2012 he wasn’t that valuable either, at least by this measure. But Morse has made one hell of an impression, standing with a league-leading four dingers. The Mariners acquired Morse because they liked the idea of having his power, and it took one series for Morse to demonstrate all of which he is capable.
Because we’re Mariners fans on the more analytical part of the internet, precious few of us loved the trade that sent John Jaso away. Many of us loved John Jaso, and his position and his team control, and Morse is a one-year guy with dingers and only more dingers. But in fairness, when that deal went down, we knew only what it was like to watch a good John Jaso. We didn’t know what it was like to watch a good Michael Morse, and we’ve been given a glimpse in the season’s first week. We weren’t perfectly objective at the time and we’re not perfectly objective now, but safe to say Morse is going to win himself fans.
Morse will forever be associated with the trade, at least until or unless something else happens, but that’s not his fault, so that shouldn’t be used as a reason not to like him. If you absolutely hated the trade, that’s a mark against the front office. It’s not a mark against the guy the front office acquired, since he had nothing to do with the negotiations. Morse should be allowed to make his own impression, and he’s got a lot of the elements necessary to become a fan favorite.
It should be noted at this point that Munenori Kawasaki was something of a fan favorite, so sometimes fans don’t pick the best players. But baseball is simply entertainment and people like who they like. You know what scores points? Dingers. Morse has four. He drilled a low-outside fastball out to right field. He lined an inside fastball off the plate out to left field. He clobbered two inner-half fastballs out to straightaway center. Oakland’s is not a hitter-friendly ballpark. Morse made it look like one. He hits the ball as hard as it looks like he would hit the ball if you just glance at his body and frame. Michael Morse isn’t playing tricks on you.
But that one year, Jose Lopez hit 25 dingers. You know what really scores points? Impressive dingers, and Morse has already impressed. He’s hit the season’s third-longest dinger, he’s hit the season’s third-highest dinger, and the other two dingers were line drives on pitches most hitters wouldn’t have knocked over a fence. You remember how certain segments of the fan base fell in love with Russell Branyan, Wily Mo Pena, and Bucky Jacobsen. Morse hits what might be referred to as statement home runs, and he’s got himself a bat flip. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Mariner with a bat flip, a Mariner who was that confident about his strength. I’m not saying a bat flip makes a player, but it’s indicative of likable traits.
On top of the power — and that’s really Morse’s whole game — the guy has personality. He’s energetic, and he’s a good interview, and he seems to do everything with enthusiasm and a certain flourish. I remember, over the past few years, watching a lot of Giants games and seeing how much fun those players seemed to have in the dugout. Granted, those were good Giants teams, and we’ve been watching bad Mariners teams. Of course a dugout is going to be a little more animated when you’re destined to win the World Series. But it’s fun to have enthusiastic, personable players. As much as I love Dustin Ackley‘s hit tool, I could happily go the rest of my life without ever hearing him speak. The Mariners have some perfectly nice guys who can be stiff as a door frame. Morse adds color, in the way that Felix Hernandez adds color even independent of his actual pitching. This is going to sound stupid, but it’s fun to see players look like they care, and it’s fun to see players look like they’re having fun. Raul Ibanez is here to provide veteran experience and leadership, but Morse is going to provide observable character.
And one shouldn’t overlook the fact that Morse is apparently absolutely thrilled to be in Seattle. This is a guy who the Mariners dealt away for a backup, a guy who only found success somewhere else, and this is a guy who got traded back to Seattle from a title contender. The Nationals are probably the best team in baseball; the Mariners are probably not. Morse easily could’ve reacted the way that Cliff Lee initially reacted. But Morse didn’t just go along with things — he told everyone he could get a hold of that he was beyond ecstatic with things. Unless Morse is a hell of a convincing liar, he wants to be a Mariner, and again, we get another parallel with Felix. One of the things that sets Felix apart in our hearts is his loyalty to the city and the organization. A lot of players seem like they’d be happy anywhere, just so long as they’re playing, and free agency typically bears this out. It renders as somewhat silly the idea that we should support a specific team in a specific place, since the players don’t really care. A guy like Felix, or Morse, indicates that there’s something special about this team, and it’s satisfying when loyalty feels like it’s a two-way street. Put another way: who the hell would want to be a Mariner? Michael Morse does, and that’s an unusual characteristic.
Morse isn’t going to average a home run every game. Sustaining that sort of rate is impossible, but there are going to be stretches where Morse makes it look like it’s possible. We’re in one of those stretches now. Every time he comes to the plate, a home run is going to be a distinct possibility, and his will be plate appearances to which we can look forward. A deficit is never that much of a deficit is Michael Morse is coming up. Power really does change the feel of things, in a positive way, for the team with the power.
What I’m not saying is that we’ll all come around and agree that trading Jaso for Morse was the right thing. That’s been analyzed to death, and there’s no reason to change that analysis now. That’s not how analysis works. But prepare yourself to either love Michael Morse, or like him, if you don’t already. He’s got a lot of likable elements to him, and even if the end result is something like a 0-2 WAR, it’s probably not going to *feel* like he was that mediocre of a player. It’s going to feel like Morse makes a significant impact, and he’s going to liven up what’s been a stiff team. You have to appreciate Morse’s unusual blend of traits. If he were homegrown, he’d already be a fan favorite.
Now, it’s going to be weird when the Mariners extend Morse for a bunch of years and we’re forced to try to like him into his decline phase. That’s never an easy ride. But for the time being, Michael Morse is going to do a lot of things to make you like him. Go ahead and like him. It’s the right thing to do.
Rainiers Opening Day Gamethread
Danny Hultzen vs. Yusmeiro Petit, 7:05pm
So the M’s played an early game featuring one of their top young arms, and you missed it because you were at work. Would you like to see/listen to a game started by *another* of the M’s young phenoms, but without all of those Cespedes and Reddicks and Lowries ruining the atmosphere? The Rainiers kick of 2013 this evening at 7:15 against Giants affiliate Fresno in the lovely* San Juaquin valley tonight.
As I mentioned in the minor league preview, tonight’s opening day for all of the full-season teams, so we’ve got some early reports from the other leagues. Tai Walker got the opening day nod for Jackson at Jacksonville, and had a so-so outing – he had 8 Ks in his 5 innings pitched, but gave up a couple of homers and 4 runs as well. Tyler Burgoon pitched well in his 1 1/3IP stint, and the hitting star was Julio Morban with a pair of doubles. The Clinton Lumberkings are up on the Burlington Bees (managed by ex-Mariner Jamie Burke), behind solid pitching from Steven Landazuri, Jeremy Dobbs and Dominic Leone. No hits in the game for the youngsters Gabriel Guerrero or Timmy Lopes, but Tyler Marlette has a couple of RBIs from the C spot and Dario Pizzano has two hits.
I know the minor league season is like three hours old, but I think we’re going to be hard pressed to see a more impressive box score than this one put up by Reds prospect Tony Cingrani.
Tacoma’s line-up looks like this:
1: E. Chavez, CF
2: N. Tenbrink, 2B
3: Liddi, 3B
4: Peguero, RF
5: Zunino, C
6: Poythress, 1B
7: Thames, DH
8: D. Almonte, LF
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Hultzen
Go Rainiers! As always, you can tune in to AM850 if you’re near Tacoma, or try the minor league gameday audio here.
* your mileage may vary
Game 4: Mariners at Athletics…maybe
Brandon Maurer vs. AJ Griffin, 12:35pm
Day game on getaway day in the Bay Area, but the rain’s conspiring to either delay or scratch this contest. With the unbalanced schedule, it’s not that hard to fit in a make-up date later on against a divisional rival, so I don’t think they’ll be as desperate to get this one in as they would if Oakland was hosting, say, Minnesota.
If it does happen, the focus will rightly be on RHP Brandon Maurer, who’s set to make his major league debut today. He took control of the rotation spot with a brilliant spring, and showed advanced command of three or four pitches, and that gave him the edge not only over fellow prospects Danny Hultzen and Tai Walker, but mlb vets like Garland and Bonderman. I’ve been trying to figure out who he reminds me of, and I’ve landed on this comparison: Texas starter Matt Harrison. Both are 6’4″-6’5″ and not exactly built like Chris Sale. Both feature four-seamers, two-seamers, a very hard slider/cutter (around 86mph) and a change-up, and both get a ton of arm-side movement on their fastballs. Sure, Harrison’s a lefty and Maurer’s a righty, but I don’t think it’s against the law to point out the similarities between the two. Harrison moved slowly in the Braves and then Rangers systems, but was the #90 prospect in baseball at one point – about where Maurer was this off-season.
AJ Griffin is still the same bafflingly successful righty throwing 89mph fastballs up in the zone and watching the flyballs settle harmlessly in his OF’s gloves. He’s not just a Beavanite though – Griffin gets an above-average number of strikeouts, due in part to a good curveball. Still, his entire game seems to be based on the whole BABIP-suppressing, not-too-many-HR tightrope-walking blueprint that Jarrod Washburn and “crafty lefties” have been using for years. Doesn’t he know he’s right-handed? His strand rate figures to rise a bit this year, but he could regress and still be a league average hurler – not bad for an unheralded 13th round pick. The M’s saw him a few times in 2012, and then they faced him another couple of times this spring, so if the element of surprise was a component in his success last year, hopefully that’s not going to be a factor now.
Brendan Gawlowski has a great preview/article on Maurer’s debut over at LL here that’s worth a read.
The line-up:
1: Saunders, RF
2: Gutierrez, CF
3: Ibanez, DH
4: Morse, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Shoppach, C
9: Andino, SS
SP: Brandon Maurer
M’s Minor League Preview
The rosters are (finally) set, and the M’s affiliates in Clinton, IA, Adelanto, CA, Jackson, TN and Tacoma, WA are finally ready to begin their 2013 campaigns. Let’s take a look at who’s playing where, and what to look for this season:
1: The most interesting roster from a prospect point of view is AAA Tacoma. The two top lefty SPs, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, begin the year in Tacoma’s rotation, and IF prospects Nick Franklin and Stefen Romero add interest to the line-up. Forgotten man Alex Liddi, fresh from a very successful stint with the Italian team in the WBC, returns to play 3B. Carlos Triunfel will split the middle infield innings with Franklin, and injury-plagued IF Nate Tenbrink finally moves up to the AAA level where he may see some time in the corners in the infield as well as in LF. If that weren’t enough, 1B Rich Poythress moves up as well, after spending the last two seasons in AA Jackson. To make room for all of these infielders, Vinnie Catricala will start off in AA Jackson. And in perhaps the most aggressive promotion, top prospect Mike Zunino will start in AAA to catch Hultzen and Paxton and prepare for his ascent to the majors. Jeremy Bonderman accepted his assignment to AAA, and looks to build arm strength alongside AAA vets Andrew Carraway and DJ Mitchell. The bullpen has loads of experience, starting with Brian Sweeney, who’ll make an appearance with Tacoma in the seventh year. His first appearance with the Rainiers was in 1999, when Raul Ibanez and Mike Blowers played with the club, and he’s coming off some solid performances in the WBC. Jhonny Nunez and Danny Farquhar have AAA experience from the right side while Bobby LaFromboise and Brian Moran were dominant lefties for the Rainiers in 2012.
Team should be: really, really good. The PCL as a whole is as stacked as its been in recent memory, but this is the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the circuit. Only Memphis is a step above in raw talent, with Las Vegas close behind in 3rd.
Interesting starter: Danny Hultzen. Is that weird Steve Dalkowski impression a thing of the past? If so, he would be ready for the majors in short order.
Interesting reliever: I was somewhat surprised to see Logan Bawcom move up ahead of guys like Forrest Snow or Jonathan Arias, but the righty (whom the M’s picked up in the Brandon League trade) had a solid spring after a stop in the Arizona Fall League. It’s not crazy to think he could see some time in Seattle in September.
Interesting position player: If Mike Zunino’s pitch blocking improves, it may be hard to keep him down come July. This is as good a position-player prospect as the M’s have had in a while. People point to Jeff Clement, but Clement’s initial seasons in the minors, in winter ball (he played in the old Hawaiian league) and in AAA weren’t stellar. We remember his insane half-season in AAA, but he stumbled out of the gate. Zunino hasn’t stumbled, or come close to stumbling, at the plate in his brief career. If he keeps that up in his first taste of AAA, the M’s will look to move Kelly Shoppach.
2: AA Jackson isn’t far behind Tacoma in prospect interest. Taijuan Walker returns to AA with a new curveball grip and a new pitch (a cutter) to refine. Brad Miller also returns to AA, a victim of the IF-heavy Tacoma line-up, and the desire to get consistent playing time for Nick Franklin, Carlos Triunfel and Miller. Miller opened a lot of eyes in training camp and may have passed Franklin as the presumptive SS of the future, but Franklin’s AAA experience and ability at 2B keep him in Tacoma. The rotation behind Walker isn’t as interesting as last year’s, but does include Anthony Fernandez, the lefty who was solid in 2012 in high-A and AA, and Chance Ruffin, the reliever who suffered through a horrific 2012 in the Tacoma bullpen. The most interesting assignment was probably Hector Noesi, who will try to rebuild his career in AA after a disastrous 2012 in Seattle/Tacoma, and an even-worse spring training. He’s lost none of his velocity or movement, but he’s getting shelled regularly. For the first time in a while, Jackson will be without pitching coach Lance Painter, who’d become perhaps the most important coach in the M’s system (Painter’s down in High Desert this year), so Noesi will work with newcomer Terry Clark instead. Noesi’s problems seem predominantly mental, so we’ll see if the change in environment helps or hurts his progress. There’s something of a jam in the outfield in Jackson, as Abe Almonte (the prospect the M’s got from New York in exchange for Shawn Kelley) figures to play alongside former 3B Francisco Martinez, who starts his first year as a CF. Julio Morban can play CF too, but may see more action in the corners with Almonte/Martinez on the roster. And, just to keep things interesting, James Jones and Leon Landry move up from High Desert. The starting OF moves up from one level, but the incumbents haven’t really moved, as Martinez remains the presumptive starter and Denny Almonte’s been replaced by yet another Almonte who can play some CF.
Team should be: Not quite as good as last year, but will be a playoff team in the Southern League. Jacksonville and potentially Mobile have equivalent talent, but the Generals have very solid depth in pitching and, of course, the OF.
Interesting starter: Taijuan Walker has the highest ceiling of anyone in the system, and one of the highest in the minor leagues. He showed his talent in the spring, and the fact that he was able to throw his cutter for strikes is encouraging, but his curveball wasn’t ready, and hitters were able to time his FB when he wasn’t able to get his new curve over. That’s fine – he’s still only 20, and he’ll have another opportunity to improve his stamina and consistency in the familiar environment of the Southern League.
Interesting reliever: Carson Smith was lights out in the Arizona Fall League, and continued his dominance in the spring. The Texan possesses one of the best, if not the best, slider in the entire system, and has the best sinker – a hard 93mph pitch thrown from a low arm slot that sinks and has all kinds of arm-side run. Righties don’t stand much of a chance, and lefties tend to roll over his sinker. He could be this year’s Stephen Pryor, despite being nothing at all like Stephen Pryor.
Interesting position player: I’m tempted to go with C John Hicks, but I think it’s got to be Julio Morban. The oft-injured OF was something of a surprise addition to the 40-man just before the Rule 5 draft, but he had a great spring following a great 2012 (at least while he was healthy). He could provide some much-needed OF depth behind the Tacoma group of Denny Almonte, Carlos Peguero and Eric Thames – who will probably be as insanely productive as they are strikeout prone.
3: High Desert’s days of seeing the M’s best pitchers skip over High A may be coming to an end, as Jackson’s pitching coach Lance Painter moves down a level to the California League (it’s not really a demotion; he’s just closer to his off-season home). The team includes several pitchers who will make their High-A debuts a bit later than initially thought – Seon-Gi Kim and George Mieses suffered through poor 2011 campaigns and injury-riddled 2012 seasons. Cam Hobson, Jordan Shipers and Robert Shore all move up from Clinton; none really has the pure stuff or statistical record that would’ve made a AA start a possibility, but it’s good to see that the M’s are willing to put somewhat interesting pitchers in the…unique environment Adelanto provides. The offense has its share of boom-or-bust hitters like Jabari Blash and Dan Paolini, but it’s balanced a bit by SS Chris Taylor and IF Ji-Man Choi, who showed his back problems were behind him by playing in the Australian winter league this year.
Team should be: Middle of the pack, with some potential. There’s just a lot of risk in the pitching staff, and not just because of the whole pitching-in-a-wind-tunnel thing. Mieses, Hobson and Kim had very poor results last year. Sure, they’ve got raw talent, but the roster needs a few more players who’ve put together solid pro lines. Guys like….
Interesting starter: Trevor Miller threw 150 very good innings, with a walk rate well under 2 per 9, and decent K rates. He got hit a bit more than you’d like in Clinton, giving up 11 HRs and a hit an inning, but he’s clearly earned the promotion and had a chance to start in AA. He pitched down the stretch in High Desert, so this isn’t a completely new assignment for him. George Mieses and Jordan Shipers are also worth keeping an eye on.
Interesting reliever: Matt Brazis was a four-year player at Boston College and signed with the M’s after being selected in the 28th round. To get on the radar, he needed to post some eye-popping numbers. In his brief 27+ inning introduction to pro ball, he struck out *51* batters against only 5 walks and a paltry 11 hits. Yes, yes, sample size and age-relative-to-league and that. But the point was, Brazis needed to put up a special line, and he did exactly that.
Interesting position player: I’ll go with Chris Taylor ahead of Choi and Paolini. Taylor signed to an above-slot bonus after having the reputation as a defense-first shortstop at Virginia, but he showed a bit more control of the strike zone than I would have thought – he posted a .900 OPS at short-season Everett with more walks than K’s. That can be discounted a bit considering his pedigree and college training, but that’s a college-heavy league, and you can’t really ask for more from that line. John Hicks had a similar reputation coming out of Virginia as a defense/leadership-first catcher, but impressed a bit in his initial pro games and then took off in High Desert in 2012. Here’s hoping Taylor does the same in 2013.
4: Clinton’s a fascinating team this year, with some of the college bats from the 2012 draft moving up from Everett and then a slew of players arriving straight from the Arizona League – skipping Pulaski and Everett entirely. All told, they look like a very good offensive team, though anyone can struggle -especially early on- in the pitching-friendly Midwest League. The big name here is Gabriel Guerrero, Vlad’s cousin, and one of the most talented players in the system. Guerrero opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona League and in the Dominican, and who appears in the 10-20 range of a number of M’s prospect lists. This is an aggressive assignment, and he could struggle here just as Guillermo Pimentel did last year. That said, Pimentel’s raw power was always accompanied with some holes; Guerrero should have a much better hit-tool than Pimentel, but there’s still plenty of risk here. Catcher Tyler Marlette brings his impressive tools to A ball after a solid season at Everett. He’s going to have to learn to walk a bit more, and the power that caught the eye of Tom McNamara still hasn’t shown up consistently, but if things click for him, he could be exciting. Corner IFs Patrick Kivlehan and Taylor Ard dominated the Northwest League last year and will take their shot at the much more difficult Midwest League this year. Kivlehan’s stats were great, but he’ll have to cut down on his strikeouts this year, and Ard is going to need to put up some power numbers as a college-trained hitter in A-ball.
Team should be: Very good, unless the Midwest League swallows Guerrero the way it did Alex Liddi and Greg Halman. Even if it does, they should have enough bats with Kivlehan, Ard and Dario Pizzano. A great blend of youngsters like Timmy Lopes, Guerrero and Marlette along with older players like the aforementioned college bats and 2B Brock Hebert.
Interesting starter: With the exception of Brazilian lefty Luiz Gohara, no one’s shot up the prospect rankings this year like Tyler Pike. The 3rd round pick out of a Florida high school pitched brilliantly in the Arizon League with more polish and a touch more raw stuff than people had seen coming into the draft. That got the lefty noticed, first in the Arizona League prospect lists, and throughout instructs. He ended up cracking Baseball Prospectus’ M’s top 10, which kind of takes the phenomenon to its logical extreme. He’s a very projectable lefty who receives a lot of plaudits for his competitiveness and demeanor, and backs it up with solid stuff. Again, this is a very aggressive assignment, considering Pike was drafted in 2012, but it underscores the confidence the player development staff have in him. Matt Anderson’s worth watching too.
Interesting reliever: RHP Grady Wood was a college starter turned reliever for Everett last year. He doesn’t have elite stuff, but his mechanics hide the ball fairly well, and he’s been tough to hit in college and in his Northwest League stint. He provides the steady, college-vet balance to the upside of guys like Pike.
Interesting position player: Timmy Lopes is getting criminally overlooked here, but there’s no question that the answer is Gabriel Guerrero. One of the few legitimate five-tool players in the system, it’s not crazy to think that Guerrero could end up in the top 5 of the M’s prospect rankings next year. Of course, he could talk to his teammate Guillermo Pimentel about the downside of prospect hype and how full-season pitching staffs are not exactly equivalent of those in the Dominican League. For all the M’s have spent on Caribbean prospects, they don’t have a ton to show for it -especially after they cut guys like Jharmidy DeJesus this winter. Guerrero’s better than Pimentel, and the best they’ve had since Carlos Triunfel, and I’m a lot more nervous than I was before I started writing this sentence.
As always, milb.tv is a good way to follow the upper-levels of the minors, as all of Tacoma’s games and a few of Jackson’s are televised. You can also catch some of Clinton’s games through the broadcasts of a few of their MWL rivals, and there’s a single California League team participating as well. Given that AAA/AA are where the bulk of the M’s best prospects will be, it’s a better year than most to try it. MiLB audio is free. For local readers, the Rainiers are broadcast in the South Sound on AM 850. The radio guys for the AAA and AA teams both have very good blogs to check regularly – Mike Curto’s blog is here and Chris Harris’ is here.
Here’s to a successful, and *healthy*, 2013 for the M’s full season affiliates!
Game 3, Mariners at Athletics
Joe Saunders vs. Tommy Milone, 7:05pm
There are a few ways to succeed as a fly-ball pitcher without top-shelf stuff. Today’s pitching match-up offers two very different ways to do so. The M’s Joe Saunders isn’t terribly worried about getting right-handed hitters out, and instead focuses on doing damage to lefties. Without a real outpitch, he doesn’t rack up strikeouts, so he’s got to limit walks and do whatever it is that lefties like this do to hold BABIP down. Overall, you get a fairly durable pitcher with a so-so to bad FIP and, ideally, good results in terms of runs allowed.
Tommy Milone’s fastball is in the 87-88mph range, noticeably slower than Joe Saunders, so not worrying about righties just isn’t an option. Instead, Milone’s developed a pretty darn good change-up – so good that he actually pitched better against righties than lefties last year. You could argue that an actual outpitch removes him from the category of a soft-tosser without much ‘stuff’ but c’mon, dude’s throwing 87 out there. Still, even with a great change-up, he’s also gets a pretty big assist from his home park. We could call this approach the Jason Vargas, with the reverse-split top-notes of “poor man’s Cole Hamels.”
Saunders took a step forward in terms of his K:BB ratio last year, though it’s not quite as impressive as it looks. Saunders K rate was a career high, but this was based almost entirely on his merciless treatment of his fellow pitchers while he pitched for Arizona. Similar to Gio Gonzalez, Saunders increased his K% (in this case from a career line of around 13% to 15%. In yet another indication of just how weird NL statistics can be, this was largely due to the fact that Saunders K’d 18 of the 40 pitchers he faced. His non-pitcher K rate was 13.4%. That’s an increase over his career rate through 2011, but it’s not exactly huge. On the other hand, the walk rate really was a significant drop that, unlike the K rate, made the transition back to the AL after Saunders moved to Baltimore. Saunders should see his FIP come down if he’s able to maintain this improvement without a corresponding increase in his HR rate. Given the AL West parks (er, not the Texas ones), this seems doable.
Today’s game marks Jason Bay’s debut, and his first start in the outfield as the M’s throw out a very right-handed line-up. Someone doesn’t believe in Milone’s reverse splits.
Line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Montero, C
7: Bay, LF
8: Andino, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Joe Saunders
Dustin Ackley gets the day off against a lefty today, as the M’s say they wanted to get Robert Andino a start or two early on.
Yesterday’s game featured some decent performances from the M’s bullpen, but some possibly odd velocity readings. Carter Capps famously averaged – *averaged* – 99mph with his FB last year. It was slightly lower in the spring, which makes some sense as he stretches his arm back out, but last night his fastball averaged 93 mph, and by the end of his appearance, he was consistently at 92. Lots of caveats here – it’s a cold night in early April in Oakland, but that’s just not a level he approached at all in 2012. To be fair, we only saw him after he’d been stretched out in the minors. His arm slot looked to be very slightly lower than it was last year (which is saying something). In Capps’ defense, Oliver Perez was on the slow side too, but it’s just striking to see a guy who hit 100 with some regularity throwing 92-93.
My
Game 2, Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jarrod Parker, 7:05
Jarrod Parker was one of the most important reasons the A’s were able to beat expectation by a cool 20, 25 wins or so in 2012. The key acquisition in the Trevor Cahill trade, Parker was a top prospect who’d lost some luster following Tommy John surgery. His velocity had mostly returned, but the A’s needed him to rack up innings, and that seemed like a tall order. As it happened, the A’s top two pitchers in innings pitched were the rookie hurlers they got in two less-than-lauded trades. Parker (and Tommy Milone) steadied the rotation while Bartolo Colon went down for performance-enhancing drug use and Brandon McCarthy went down with a skull fracture. By the end of the year, they were effectively veterans alongside the mid-season call-ups like AJ Griffin and Dan Straily.
Parker uses a low-90s four-seamer and sinker, a slider and the rare curveball, but his bread and butter pitch is his change-up. When batters swung at it, they whiffed nearly half the time. Half! It’s a major reason why Parker, unlike so many young phenoms, doesn’t exhibit any real platoon splits. He throws it some against righties, particularly if he’s ahead in the count, but lefties get a steady diet of the pitch, and they struggled against it, tallying 20 hits (no HRs) and 8 walks against 58 Ks. The M’s are going to have a lefty-heavy line-up out there, since that’s the by-the-book play, but the hitters need to look for a fastball early and not have to expand the zone later in the at-bat. Helpfully, Parker throws first-pitch fastballs almost 70% of the time to lefties.
One guy who might want to look first pitch fastball and swing the bat is Dustin Ackley. I know, I know, part of the reason he’s valuable is that he’s got a discerning eye and he can make pitchers work by fouling off pitches and laying off borderline balls. But Ackley hasn’t been able to utilize those skills to regain his footing if he falls behind. If he puts the first pitch of an at-bat in play, he’s great – he’s hit .377 with a .597 slugging percentage. But he’s done so only 78 times. He’s got 13.6% of his total bases from the 7.5% of the time he’s put a first pitch in play. After falling behind 0-1, his OPS is only .580, though of course *Everyone* has a crappy OPS after falling behind. But even if he takes the first pitch for a ball, he’s hitting .235/.364/.358. With two strikes, his OPS is .473, which looks a bit like Brendan Ryan’s .490. The standard caveats apply: his career is still in the “small sample size” realm, and splitting it up by count or whatever just magnifies that. So take the preceding as something to watch, rather than as something we *know.*
Hisashi Iwakuma is going to be critical to the M’s chances this year. As the best blend of talent and experience in the rotation behind Felix, the M’s need him to pitch the way he did after taking a rotation spot last year. I know I’m a bit more sanguine about pitcher depth than Dave, but that doesn’t mean Iwakuma’s replaceable. He’s the biggest ground-ball guy on the staff, which is huge if you plan to trot out Morse or Bay in LF. The M’s combination of Hultzen and Ramirez can slot in for someone at the back of the rotation, but replacing a #2 is tough for any team in baseball. All of this to say: Iwakuma’s right shoulder needs to hold together this year. The veteran righty is now over a full year removed from shoulder soreness, but he’s also about to turn 32. Fingers crossed.
Today’s line-up:
1: Saunders, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Montero, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Iwakuma
2nd game, and the first without Gutierrez, as the M’s continue to bring along slowly following his leg tightness. Again, if you’re going to make the fateful Ibanez-for-Gutierrez move in the line-up to face a righty starter and get Guti some rest, *this* is the day you do it. Keep it on the ground, Hisashi.
The M’s had a successful open house at Safeco Field last night, using the new video board to broadcast the game to about 15,000 fans. The weather undoubtedly helped, but I’m stunned there were what sounds like long lines to get into Safeco to watch a game on TV (albeit a really, really big one) and check out the new park. The pictures and comments I saw via twitter and blogs were universally positive. With the next ‘Supreme Court’ for Felix taking place on the 11th, it seems like a decent time to point out that the M’s communications/outreach staff seem like the best in baseball. This is not a bad attempt to curry favor or anything; with the comments Dave and I have made about the Jaso trade, it’d take a hell of a lot more than this to restore their view back to ‘indifference.’ It’s not the front office advantage I’d most prefer, but it’s the front office advantage we’ve got, and I feel like we should acknowledge them. Nice work, Kevin/Jeff/Rebecca/Randy/et al.
Your reminder: the full-season minor leagues open on Thursday. The Rainiers start the year in Fresno, while the Jackson Generals begin 2013 in Jacksonville, FL. High Desert begins in the almost-as-crazy conditions of Lancaster, while Clinton starts in Burlington. All of the full-season clubs and the M’s began the year on the road. Hmmm.
Some quick numbers from Felix’s opening day gem: Felix threw 24 change-ups in the game (the pitch fx pitch selection numbers mentioned during the broadcast were way off, a product of the algorithm having trouble differentiating Felix’s change and sinker), and got 10 swinging strikes. He got three ground-outs and one pop-up when the A’s put the pitch in play. As Felix’s FB has gotten a bit slower, it’s also gotten straighter. His four-seamer’s horizontal movement’s dwindled until he essentially had none to speak of for much of last year; his four-seamer acted more like a cutter, which presumably made the arm-side run on his sinker look more impressive. At least for last night, his four-seamer had more run than we’ve seen. I have no idea if this was a conscious adjustment, a pitch fx calibration error or just an outlier based on just 14 pitches. I can’t wait for Felix day again.
Jesus Montero Time To First Base
Last night, the Mariners played the A’s, and Jesus Montero started for the Mariners, because he’s a starter for the Mariners. The A’s were starting a lefty on the mound, which was good news for Montero, but the worse news was that the lefty is good and he generates a bunch of grounders. Sure enough, Montero wound up 0-for-4, and the three times he faced Brett Anderson, he grounded out up the middle. Some players are able to beat out grounders up the middle, but some players are Jesus Montero.
They weren’t just three groundouts, though. They were three moderately close groundouts, allowing us to time Montero down the line to the bag, since he would’ve been trying to out-run the throws. I remember during yesterday’s Red Sox/Yankees game I saw Ichiro bounce a classic soft grounder the defense wasn’t able to turn for a double play because Ichiro booked it to first. For some players, slow grounders are a part of the skillset, but Jesus Montero should try to avoid grounders like Eric Sogard should try to avoid peanuts. (Eric Sogard looks like he has a peanut allergy.)
How did Montero do? We go in order:
- Grounder No. 1
- link
- 149 frames from contact to base
- 4.97 seconds from contact to base
- out
- Double plays often involve three infielders. This was not a double play, but it involved three infielders, and the throw from the first one to the second one bounced and caused the second one to lose his momentum. Montero was out because it took him five seconds to get to the base, because he must’ve assumed a hit at first and kind of dogged it a little. Which is never a good idea because Montero could’ve been thrown out at first from center field, too. It isn’t out of the question that Jesus Montero runs on stilts.
- Grounder No. 2
- link
- 144 frames from contact to base
- 4.80 seconds from contact to base
- out
- This was kind of a routine grounder, and Montero pulled up at the end, but he still hustled down the line, probably because he heard it about his first effort. And he beat his first effort, by better than three percent. Alternate theory to the stilts theory: Montero always bats right after someone in the dugout gives him dual dead-legs. Or maybe he sits on his feet and his legs fall asleep. If there is one baseball thing you’re better at than Jesus Montero, this is it, this is it right here.
- Grounder No. 3
- link
- 142 frames from contact to base
- 4.73 seconds from contact to base
- out
- Sure, you could say Montero came close to beating this out. But he didn’t come that close, and look at the shortstop as he’s making the play. Look how he gets himself comfortable before throwing to the base. For most hitters, this play would’ve been rushed; for Montero, it was allowed to blossom organically. They always say defenders know who’s running before the ball is put in play, so they know how quickly they have to react. This isn’t necessary for Jesus Montero, as defenders can pick up the baseballs and ask the other infielders about Montero’s running speed and general off-field interests before completing the plays. “Who’s this guy?” “Jesus Montero.” “He run?” “Not really.” “Isn’t there another…” “Yeah, there’s another Jesus Montero, in the minors.” “Can he run?” “Don’t know.” “You think, though?” “I mean, maybe, but I doubt it, probably a catcher and well, you know.” “Yeah.” “Yep.” “Man, this thing’s kinda slippery.” /crow hops /crow hops /throws
And that’s another analysis of Jesus Montero running to first base. In time this’ll get old, but for now it feels fresh, just like everything else having to do with the new baseball season. Pretty soon it’ll all get routine, and pretty soon after that it’ll probably all get kind of boring, with occasional exceptions. Our astonishing, irrepressible ability to adjust is our greatest strength and our most crippling weakness.
New Mariners Win Like Old Mariners
For the Mariners, this was an offseason of change. There was change within the front office, somewhat in terms of personnel, but more in terms of philosophies. And this was reflected by change on the roster, as the Mariners added some experienced dinger hitters in an effort to add experience and dinger hitters. These Mariners just set a club record for dingers in spring training, and there’s been talk that for the first time in years, the Mariners have a legitimate core of the lineup. So on opening day the Mariners beat the A’s 2-0 thanks to excellent pitching and a groundball single.
Feeling like a pessimist? Argue that the changes didn’t make any difference. Feeling like an optimist? Argue that the Mariners didn’t even need the additions to chip in to win. Feeling like a realist? Argue nothing because it’s been one game of a baseball season. Do you remember how long these things are? Imagine how long you think a season is. Multiply that by seven and then add 40 more games. Don’t worry right now about the big picture. Worry about the little picture, in which the Mariners just won a regular-season baseball game. A game it feels like they’ve played a dozen dozen times before against the Oakland A’s alone.
Since 2008, now, the Mariners and A’s have played 96 times. In 19 of those games, one of the teams was shut out. In 96 of those games, at least one of the teams looked entirely, woefully inept. The A’s might be coming off a playoff berth, but when they get together with the Mariners, all that old familiar magic is rekindled, to the possible delight of some.
When I used to recap regularly, I think after every opening day I’d say the same thing: even though it’s only one win, it’s a meaningful win. If you expected the Mariners to win X% of 162 games, now they’d win X% of 161 games plus one win. Every win matters and you never know when they’ll really matter. This is the Mariners’ seventh opening-day win in a row. After the previous six opening days, they’ve gone 431-535. I can’t pretend to be super excited anymore, not over one win, but I can be generally pleased, over one win and over having the baseball soundtrack back. I didn’t expect today to feel as refreshing and enjoyable as it did. Not just the Mariners, even; all day, there was real baseball on TV, and it does make me feel a little more centered.
How meaningful is this win? Again, this is the seventh straight year the Mariners are starting 1-0. Last year, they started 1-0, and Dustin Ackley hit a dinger. The year before, they started 1-0, and Chone Figgins hit a dinger. The year before that, they started 1-0, and Rob Johnson hit a dinger. Tonight, nobody hit a dinger, and Felix Hernandez was excellent. There’s nothing to read into, nothing to extrapolate — the meaning is that Felix was excellent and that every fifth day, the Mariners aren’t actually at a disadvantage. This was a game on opening day that easily could’ve been a game in the middle of August. It didn’t feel special; Felix felt special, and the game felt mostly normal. Be happy to have baseball back, and to have one fewer day of possible complaining.
I’m not going to make a habit of doing this. I might not do this five times — it’s one of the main reasons I left Lookout Landing in the first place. I’m moving on from nightly Mariners recaps, but tonight gets an exception because tonight is opening night and there’s only one of these a year. Or, three of these, for Major League Baseball as a whole. Something has to be written about Felix dominating again on opening day, even if this is starting to feel like old hat. It would be weird for the outcome of the game to not be acknowledged.
Felix was actually perfect into the bottom of the fourth, when he coughed up a double to John Jaso. Prior to the game, Felix gifted Jaso with a Rolex out of gratitude for catching last year’s perfecto. This is precisely why Felix equipped that Rolex with a self-destruct mechanism operated remotely. The A’s didn’t get their second hit until the sixth, and it sucked. The third hit came in the eighth, and it was legitimate, and then Felix issued a walk when he was fatigued. Up until the end, Felix was incredibly strong, and his changeup was so lethal it literally killed six guys, the game stopped for ambulances and everything. Felix did have to grimace through some bullpen anxiety, and this easily could’ve wound up another no-decision, but the memory of all those no-decisions makes this winning decision all the more sweet. In that way the Mariners have actually been good for Felix’s psychological health.
Felix would’ve allowed a run were it not for Brendan Ryan in the fourth. With two down and a runner on third, Yoenis Cespedes bounced a grounder up the middle that Ryan fielded on the outfield grass. He spun and threw a strike to first, across his body yet strong and on the fly. Cespedes was retired by a step and Ryan returned to the dugout unencumbered by carrying a heavy Gold Glove in his pocket. It was Ryan who made the defensive play of the day, and it was Ryan who went 1-for-1 with two walks. Brendan Ryan said he wanted to play more like David Eckstein, and it was mission accomplished tonight, as Ryan was annoying.
As for Jaso, if you miss him, he popped out, he doubled, he struck out on ten pitches, he allowed a stolen base, he missed a few borderline strike calls, and he was pinch-hit for against a lefty reliever. So Oakland got the same John Jaso experience we all basically got to have last season. It’s a fine experience that doesn’t measure up to the Felix Hernandez experience. The Mariners’ new regular catcher, Jesus Montero, had a ball foul-tipped so hard off his mask in the ninth inning it gave the ROOT Sports camera feed a concussion. Kenji Johjima used to make a habit of getting hit in the junk. Jesus Montero is making a habit of getting hit in the head. He and Franklin Gutierrez are not allowed to be friends.
The Mariners scored on a walk, a single, and a single. They did nothing else, although in fairness Brett Anderson is terrific. Tonight it was enough. Most nights it will not be enough, but most nights the Mariners probably won’t be limited to two runs. Mariners relievers threw just 12 strikes out of 27 pitches and that’s how this game actually got interesting, but it’s good they did that in retrospect, because it made things more electric. The Mariners now have the same record as the Astros. Happy opening day.
Game 1, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Brett Anderson, 7:05pm
Happy Felix Day, and happy opening day. So much of the conversation in the Spring and before centered on the M’s projections and how their new-look offense would perform in their new-look ballpark. As Dave’s post below touches on, the M’s have real problems, and the gap between them and the elite teams in the division and the American League again looks formidable. They’ve made some headscratching roster moves, and they weren’t able to reel in a few players they targeted in free agency and the trade market. The team is forecast to finish 4th in the division, and the Fangraphs Positional Power Rankings illustrates why: the M’s had the 4th best players at nearly every position. But today’s not about any of that. Today’s opening day, featuring a great pitching match-up. Most of all, today means we can take a break from the focus on roster construction, disappointments, talent gaps and questionable rotations: today we can put the focus back where it should be, on Felix Hernandez.
This isn’t to suggest that I/we are giving up on analysis or that this blog is converting to a Felix fanfic tumblr format (there’ve been enough changes in the M’s blogosphere, frankly). But I’ve missed baseball more than anyone who’s watched three consecutive last-place teams has any right to. There’s a trap in reveling in the exploits of one singular talent on a bad club in that it becomes ‘enough’. The team’s frittered away three years, but give me 32 Felix Hernandez starts and, well, how bad to we really have it? That’s all well and good, but for today, it actually IS enough. Opening day means we can stop tabulating probabilities and start rooting *against* them. It’s something that numerophobic fans fail to understand: knowing how unlikely something is doesn’t mean you’re disappointed if you achieve it. If anything, it heightens one’s appreciation of it. Felix is pitching and the M’s are only a half-game back of the Astros, who, frankly, probably peaked last night. The M’s chances at a wildcard are slim, but they’re not zero, and while a rotation of Felix and some question marks doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, it’s tough to be too pessimistic about a rotation that starts off like this one.
While I’ve got your pixels, I thought I’d give my own thoughts on the 2013 season. This isn’t exactly a response to Dave’s post, just a slightly different way of getting to the same basic answer:
I’m completely agreed that there’s an undercurrent of antagonism between segments of the M’s fanbase, though this is probably to be expected given the debates roiling in baseball as a whole. There’s so much point scoring, so many jeremiads, because “I don’t know” blog posts and columns don’t get traffic. I am deeply, deeply skeptical that there’s any real value in veteran-ness, but I’d be lying if I said that Brandon McCarthy or other players views on the subject didn’t make me think. I’m going to try and remember that the first few times I see correlation-equals-causation article. I’ll also try and enjoy the fact that if I’m seeing such an article, at least some of the youngsters would be producing, and I’m tired of watching the crappy version of Justin Smoak.
My view on the M’s pitching depth is a bit more optimistic. Erasmo Ramirez is an excellent starter, provided that his elbow soreness clears up. It’s worth remembering he had a brief bout of it last year, but that was before his excellent stretch run, so hopefully it’s something that won’t hinder his progress in the medium/long term. Beyond Ramirez, I have reasonably high expectations for Danny Hultzen, whose command simply isn’t quite what we thought it was coming out of college, but isn’t anywhere close to the Dalkowski-essque mess we saw in Tacoma last year. James Paxton is a wild card here as well; he didn’t look ready this spring, but he was brilliant late in the year and into his first few appearances in the Arizona Fall League. There are other, more replacement-level, starters behind these three, and then there’s Tai Walker, the most talented of all, sitting in AAA. I think some fans may overstate how MLB ready guys like Hultzen are right now, but the M’s best pitchers are all in the very high minors, and this gives the M’s more depth than all be one or two teams int the majors.
We all saw it with Ichiro and the absolutely baffling arguments we somehow needed to have about him: a certain segment of the fanbase focuses its ire on the team’s best player. Well, there’s got to be a corollary for focusing one’s ire on a reliably mediocre player. It’s not as crazy as hating on the team’s best player, but the M’s have been a target rich environment for replacement-level ballplayers in recent years. So I really don’t quite get the bafflement at Blake Beavan being the target of such scorn. This team suited up Chone Figgins last year! Hector. Noesi. I’m with Matthew that Beavan is a bit underappreciated here – he’s the 5th starter, and isn’t claiming to be anything else. In a bit over one full year of playing time, he’s amassed 1 fWAR. That’s – I mean, that’s not any good, but it’s better than replacement level, obviously. And if you look at runs on the scoreboard/fielding dependent WAR, he’s almost league average. You don’t have to believe that his RA WAR tells the whole story, but this isn’t a bad 5th starter. Particularly if he’s able to get more ground balls this year, he could post a 1-1.5 WAR year in 175IP or so, and while it’s not going to put the M’s over the top, that’s pretty darn good for your league minimum 5th starter.
Some predictions:
1: Dustin Ackley rebounds, because how can he not, but he remains an enigmatic disappointment. The contact skills aren’t quite as elite as we thought, but they’re definitely good enough for him to raise his average significantly, but his power won’t match his rookie half-season’s. I sincerely hope Dave’s right and Dustin’s the most talented young hitter in the organization, but this is a doubles hitter who’ll be playing in a park that may suppress doubles. Dave’s right that he wasn’t as bad as his raw stats suggested, but there are some troubling signs there too – I’ve mentioned it before, but he’s been an extremely pull-happy hitter, particularly on ground balls. These slow grounders to 2B seem to be the result of reliably bad contact – like his hit tool allows him to make a certain kind of contact, even when he’s fooled. This is something he did in Tacoma in 2010, but looked to get away from in 2011. If he’s going to be anything like the best hitter in the org, he’s going to have to make those adjustments again.
2: I’ll definitely take the over on the M’s bullpen’s projections. I think Furbush is in for some regression (as is Luetge), but that will be partially balanced by solid years from Capps and Wilhelmsen. In addition, the bullpen’s usage is going to work to their advantage. I think the M’s are going to have the platoon advantage in more at-bats than most teams – gone are the generalists like Shawn Kelley and in their place are specialists like Perez, Capps, Kinney and Furbush. This could make the 8th inning interminable, but the M’s bullpen figures to post decent raw stats.
3: I’m with Dave on essentially all of the roster changes between the 1st and 2nd halves – the M’s will get younger because they have to. We’re going to see some line-ups with 6 players over 30 for a while (not tonight, however). I also think Michael Saunders ends the year as the starting CF, either due to another injury to Guti or due to a trade. I’m not sure the M’s would send Montero to Tacoma because it’s not clear he’d have a better shot to play full-time down there. With the M’s sending Mike Zunino to AAA, I think it’d be problematic to have TWO future catchers on the same roster. It’s possible, of course, but I think the M’s would DH him at the big league level for a while until they either moved Morales or Shoppach around the deadline.
4: The Astros don’t make a run at infamy and post a bad instead of historically significant season. The M’s win total improves due to their presence, but they’re not winning 15-16 of these games. I’d put them at 68 wins or so – a far cry from the low-50s I’ve seen in various places. Still comfortably in last place, of course.
All told, I think the M’s end up right at .500 at 81-81. I think there’s enough talent to improve upon last year’s finish, but enough inconsistency and volatility to prevent a real run at the division or wildcard. Certainly hope I’m wrong.
Let’s go M’s, and let’s go Felix!
Your opening day line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Montero, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Felix