Brad Miller – Why Now?
Ever since Dave’s post a few days ago urging the M’s to call up Brad Miller, it’s been discussed throughout the M’s blogosphere. Alex Carson of Prospect Insider/Lookout Landing and I talked briefly about it on Tuesday. I’ve seen quite a few fans question the move, given the question marks surrounding his defense. But ultimately, this is the right move. Why?
* Miller’s made a number of errors, generally on routine plays. OK, you know who else used to do that? Nick Franklin. I haven’t seen Miller play as much as I saw Franklin, but I saw several more mental lapses from Franklin than I have from Miller. This isn’t about picking on Franklin as it is pointing out that mental lapses *can* be minimized in MLB. The stakes are higher, the fields are better, and there’s more time to prepare and less time spent waiting for connecting flights and bus trips. This isn’t handwaving; Miller needs to work at this, but this a fundamentally different situation from a hitter who has trouble with breaking balls or good velo. This isn’t a skills issue. MLB is *brutal* on kids with deficient skills, and it *can* be brutal on those who aren’t able to focus 100% of the time. But it’s often a good environment to improve focus as well. From what I’ve seen, he’s got plenty of skill to play SS at the big league level, and I never would’ve said that about Nick Franklin.
* Why? Because Miller now gets to learn from Nick Franklin, a guy who’s become a *better* fielder since his call-up, and he gets to work with one of the best defensive shortstops in the game in Brendan Ryan. I think we all have this image of Ryan as a joker, as a free spirit who wants to do imitations instead of work on his craft, but that’s not entirely accurate. There’s a reason the M’s kept Brad Miller with the big league club so long this March, and there’s probably a reason they wanted Miller to play 2B alongside Ryan. Ryan has a lot to pass on in terms of preparation and learning hitter and pitcher tendencies, and Miller will benefit from that a heck of a lot more than he will from fielding a few more grounders in Albuquerque or Salt Lake.
* Ultimately, because the M’s need to see if he can hit. Miller reached base in every game he played for Tacoma, so I’m going to assume a batting line better than Ryan’s is a given. But if he’s able to approach what Franklin’s done, then that really changes how the M’s approach the offseason. The M’s haven’t had offense from the position in a loooong time, and what better time to get a sense of their 2014 starting line-up than now? The season’s over from a contention point of view.
Welcome to the show, Brad.
P.S. – I’m indebted to Ryan Divish for point 2 above; Divish saw how Ryan’s preparation in the spring impacted Miller, and talked to me about how it could change Miller’s focus. He also pointed to bench coach Robby Thompson, whom Divish thinks has helped Nick Franklin)
P.P.S – Dave’s post on Miller’s call-up is here.
Brad Miller is Coming Up
Ryan Divish has the news from Tacoma.
Brad Miller will join the Seattle Mariners tomorrow for the Cubs series
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) June 28, 2013
In Miller’s final game for the Rainiers, he hit a home run to extend his hitting streak to 22 games. Not bad.
I won’t spend too much time talking about Miller, since I just wrote that the Mariners should make this move a few days ago. All the reasons why I think it’s time for Miller to join the Mariners now are in that post. I’m glad they agreed.
Divish noted in a subsequent tweet that Brendan Ryan will move into a backup role (for real this time), with Carlos Triunfel heading back to Tacoma to open up a spot on the 25-man roster. Miller will take over as the starting shortstop, Ryan will serve as the backup, and Triunfel will play regularly at Triple-A. This is the best alignment of talent the Mariners have right now. Expect Triunfel to return whenever Ryan gets traded to a contender, which will probably happen closer to July 31st.
The Mariners will also have to add Miller to the 40 man roster. If they want to keep everyone in the organization, they could put Jesus Sucre on the 60 day DL, since he’s already 20 days into his DL stint and it doesn’t sound like he’s anywhere close to returning. If they go with the DFA option, I’d guess that Lucas Luetge would be the most vulnerable, though the Mariners could also potentially DFA Aaron Harang and replace him with Erasmo Ramirez. My guess is that that’s the move that’s going to happen sooner or later, so since they’ll need a 40 man spot tomorrow, Harang is scheduled to go Saturday, and Erasmo could take that spot on regular rest, they might just make that move now in order to not have to DFA anyone else.
We’ll find out tomorrow who is leaving the 40 man to make room for Miller, but the main point is that he’s now the Mariners starting shortstop. He might not have the defensive chops to stay there long term, but the best way to find out is to see how he handles the position for the rest of the year. His bat is going to be a legitimate upgrade, and if he can cut down on the errors, the Mariners long running search for a shortstop of the future may be over.
Asking The Audience: Dustin Ackley
Dustin Ackley is back, in one sense. Not in the sense that “Dustin Ackley is back!” like we all hope we’re shouting a week from now. But Dustin Ackley is back on the Mariners, probably for good, and after sitting out a couple games it seems like he’s going to get started in actual action on Friday. He’s going to be an outfielder most of the time, and that matters, but what we care about most is the bat, since it’s the bat that’ll determine whether or not he’s a keeper. For Ackley and for the rest of Ackley’s career, this is going to be an important three months, as he simply has to show more than he showed before getting sent to Tacoma.
Now, some quick background. As a rookie, Ackley posted a .766 OPS. He went into that offseason feeling pretty good about himself, and in 2012, he posted a .622 OPS. That was a letdown. Remember that letdown? Remember when it was a surprise that Ackley was bad?
Coming into 2013, Ackley made some changes to his swing and his stance. They were revealed in spring training, and Ackley felt encouraged, as anyone does after making deliberate adjustments. He felt like something had to be worked on. Ackley’s spring was underwhelming, and he started the year 3-for-30 with three singles.
Then Ackley changed the changes to his swing and his stance. That decision was made during a day off, and Ackley felt encouraged, as anyone does after making deliberate adjustments. He suggested he felt the best he’d felt in a couple years. Between then and getting demoted, Ackley posted a .572 OPS. The second half of April was pretty solid; the month of May was a disaster from start to finish. It finished in the Pacific Coast League.
Now Ackley’s back again. This time, it wasn’t about mechanical changes — it was about mental changes, changes in approach. Eric Wedge wanted to see Ackley more ready to hit, and while Triple-A pitching isn’t major-league pitching, Triple-A pitching got abused much of the time Ackley stood in. Ackley claims he has his confidence back, and he just hit .365 at a high level with 19 walks and 14 strikeouts. Ackley didn’t chase in Tacoma. He wasn’t over-aggressive, he wasn’t too passive, and he made a lot of contact. He flashed some line drives to left and left-center. There are reasons to be encouraged, because Ackley is encouraged and the stats back it up.
So, a poll. I think I know how this is going to go, but I’d like to make sure. Maybe you guys will surprise me. Usually, you guys don’t surprise me, but I am very smart about not being surprised. This is a lie. I am shockingly easily startled, even by things I know are there. If anything it’s only getting worse.