Game 74, Mariner at Angels
King Felix vs. Tommy Hanson, 7:05pm
Ah, Tommy Hanson. Going into 2009, he was the 4th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He put up a 4+ WAR season for Atlanta at 23, and would’ve been one of the most valuable commodities in baseball heading into 2011. This off-season, he was sent to Anaheim in exchange for a so-so relief pitcher. He’s still only 26, and is in his first year of arbitration, but essentially every single number is trending in the wrong direction.
From 2010-2013, his FIP has gone from 3.31 to 5.02. His K% went from 20.5 all the way up to 26.3% before cratering this year at 15.4%. His fastball velocity’s gone from 94mph to 89mph. O-swing? 28.3% to 24.8%. You get the picture – he’s a pitcher in decline. In Hanson’s case, it’s probably health related. The Braves were willing to cut him loose because he’s suffered from shoulder problems that first appeared late in 2011. Many, including some in the Braves, pointed to his odd pitching motion, in which he starts slowly before whipping his arm over the top. In fact, he altered those mechanics last season with the Braves, removing a ‘pause’ in his delivery to maintain momentum and hopefully ease the strain on his shoulder as it accelerates his arm. Obviously, the Braves weren’t thrilled with the results.
This season, Hanson’s made a couple of adjustments – or at least, his pitches seem to indicate a conscious effort to tweak his declining results. First, he’s now a slider/curve dominant pitcher who mixes in a fastball. He’s gone from about 55-60%+ fastballs to around 45% and declining. Those fastballs have become sliders, and he’ll throw the pitch to righties and lefties alike. The second change is more interesting: while he was always an over-the-top pitcher whose fastball had a lot of vertical movement, he’s currently throwing the fastball with the most ‘rise’ in all of MLB. His Angels teammate Jered Weaver is always near the top of that particular table, and he illustrates what can happen when a fastball has freakishly large amounts of vertical movement: lots of pop-ups, harmless fly balls and weak contact. Theoretically, it can help set up a change-up, but Hanson’s is just a show-me pitch he throws about 1% of the time. In general, all of those fly balls can be risky. In Anaheim, that may be a risk worth taking. It’s clearly worked for Weaver, but it seems to be clearly counterproductive for Hanson. His HR/9 has risen each year (it’s basically what’s driving his FIP upwards), and is currently nearly 1.6. Moving to Anaheim may have helped, but moving to the American League…hasn’t.
The other thing a lot of vertical movement can help with is platoon splits – it’s like the opposite of sinkers and their large splits. Weaver’s platoon splits are essentially even, despite his whippy delivery that starts off well to the 3B side. Hanson’s splits are indeed lower so far than his career numbers, and perhaps a bit lower than you’d expect for a guy with Brandon Maurer’s pitch mix. But that’s not all great news – in this case, it’s just an indication that righties and lefties are both hitting well off him. He’s still got splits, and they should be regressed heavily, but this isn’t a match-up where trotting out a right-handed hitter is an unconscionable mistake. Ah, who are we kidding? The M’s are beat up right now and don’t really have the ability to trot out different line-ups even if they wanted to. Morse isn’t starting, but there are non-Hanson related reasons for that.
By FIP, he’s essentially been replacement level this season. But by ERA, he’s adjusting just fine, and having a comeback season. His ERA is over a full run lower than his FIP, thanks to a great strand rate, the highest of his career. With no one on base, he’s been absolutely atrocious, but with RISP, he’s…well, I don’t know if HE’S been great, but his BABIP has been extremely low. That looks like luck, but I do find it kind of odd that Joe Blanton shows the same pattern, as does Jason Vargas. I can almost hear an old-timey pitching coach yelling at his hurlers to “challenge” batters and “make the hitter beat you” with no one on, but poor CJ Wilson’s been brilliant with no one on and worse with runners on base (thankfully, he faced the Mariners last night).
Line-up:
1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, CF
8: Blanco, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: El Cartelua
DJ Peterson debuted in last night’s Everett win, but he went 0-3 with a walk.
The Rainiers play in Colorado Springs tonight with, uh, Hector Noesi getting the ball. Good luck, Rainiers, and good luck pedestrians of Colorado Springs.
Taijuan Walker starts for AA Jackson against Mobile, Anthony Vasquez continues his comeback with Clinton, and Lars Huijer starts for Everett.
The rookie-level Pulaski Mariners begin their season this evening against Burlington of the Royals org. 2012 3rd-round pick Edwin Diaz gets the opening night start.
Harang or Bonderman: A Poll
Here are the stats for the two Mariners starters who are in the running to get tossed out of the rotation whenever the Mariners decide to bring Erasmo Ramirez back from Tacoma.
| Name | IP | BB% | K% | GB% | HR/FB | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Bonderman | 24.2 | 7% | 8% | 46% | 13% | 0.215 | 86% | 3.28 | 5.48 | 5.14 |
| Aaron Harang | 59.2 | 4% | 22% | 36% | 12% | 0.319 | 64% | 5.73 | 4.18 | 3.87 |
I’m not offering any analysis besides putting those numbers up for you to see.
Which one do you think is going to pitch better going forward?
Game 73, Mariners at Angels
Joe Saunders vs. CJ Wilson, 7:05pm
The M’s face left-hander CJ Wilson of the Angels tonight, the guy who hasn’t exactly justified the huge free agent contract that brought him west from Texas, but may get more than his fair share of grief for underwhelming pitching of baseballs and shampoo. I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s interesting to see the steep climb in opponents ISO/SLG% when they make contact with Wilson’s fastball. He went from posting a very low ISO on his four-seamer of .134 in Arlington in 2011 to .189 last year to .226 this year, in a part that severely restricts HRs (and therefore ISO). All of this could be small-sample nonsense, but at the very least, it casts a great deal of doubt on how much of that 2011 performance was “true talent.” Wilson’s adjusted a bit by throwing more breaking balls and fewer fastballs (of any kind) than he did in 2011. That may be helping him post solid strikeout numbers, and his o-swing and whiff rates are at/near career highs. But his high walk rate may be a result of the change as well, and walks plus even a “normal” amount of home runs isn’t a recipe for making the leap to #1-#2 starter material. That’s not to say Wilson’s bad – he’s not. He’s got a sub-4 FIP, and he’s been a dependable AL starter who’s clearly better than league average. He’s just not going to be worth what the Angels have to pay him in the next few years unless he can drop his HRs-allowed back down.
The M’s look to see if Joe Saunders success in HR-suppressing Safeco and HR-suppressing PetCo park can translate to HR-suppressing Angel Stadium. The park’s well suited to Saunders’ skillset, but unfortunately the line-up isn’t. The Angels were a great match-up for Jeremy Bonderman, but their right-handedness makes it a poor one for Saunders. C’mon wind direction – help a long-suffering M’s fan out.
Line-up:
1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Morse, 1B
6: Ibanez, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: M. Saunders, CF
9: Ryan, SS
SP: J. Saunders
The M’s have been busy signing their draft picks, so the short-season club rosters will look different pretty much daily for a while. The biggest news on that front is that tonight marks 1st-round pick DJ Peterson’s M’s org debut with Everett, who take on Tri-Cities at home tonight at 7.
With Brad Miller playing SS in Tacoma, AA Jackson gave the position to defensive-whiz Gabriel Noriega. That wasn’t because they saw the defensive-whiz/no-bat Noriega as a prospect, but because they wanted to let Taylor play in the advanced-A All-Star game. Now he (and 3B/1B Ramon Morla) has been moved up to AA, and he’ll start tonight’s game against Mobile. He’ll be playing with his college teammate, John Hicks. Taylor was drafted with the reputation of a slick-fielder without much offense, but he’s blossomed in the M’s org (who signed him to an overslot bonus, so apparently the idea that he wouldn’t hit was not universally shared) and was hitting .335/.426/.524 in the offensive haven of High Desert.
The Rainiers played in Colorado Springs today, and beat the Sky Sox 16-4. Carlos Peguero had six RBIs with a 2B and a 3B, and Dustin Ackley went 3-4. Whatever setting that humidor is at, it’s too low.
Game 72, Mariners at Angels
Jeremy Bonderman vs. Joe Blanton, 7:10pm
If last night’s match-up focused on a trade/acquisition that works out exactly as you’d hope, tonight’s features the opposite. Joe Blanton looks very much like the pitcher he was in Philadelphia – he’s an average GB%, solid K%, low walk pitcher who gets the most out of a 90mph fastball and an assortment of bendy pitches. He’s a junkballer, but he’s carved out a niche for himself by being a dependable middle- to back-of-the-rotation starter. The Angels, sensibly, thought that by taking a guy out of a HR-aiding park like Philly’s and inserting him in HR-neutralizing Anaheim, they’d get the great K:BB ratio without paying a penalty in gopher-balls.
Well, that deal’s worked fine, but the Angels aren’t collecting lots of kudos for signing Blanton to a 2-year, $15m deal. Part of the reason is that Anaheim can’t protect Blanton in away games. He’s given up 11 homers in 7 road games, and batters are slugging .592 off him away from So Cal. But that doesn’t mean he’s been brilliant at home. Blanton’s game works when his BABIP is under .300. This year, it’s .368. Sure, some of that is clearly luck, but his LD% and the homers suggest that batters are getting a good look at his pitches. His FIP isn’t terrible despite all of the HRs thanks to the K:BB ratio, but his ERA is pushing 6. It’d actually be worse if he wasn’t pitching relatively well with RISP; he’s getting torched with the bases empty. In any event, this is not the rotation-stabilizer they thought they were getting when they picked up Blanton (and traded Ervin Santana away).
Bonderman’s been better recently as his sinker has a bit more sink, allowing him to post great GB numbers against righties. He’s throwing a ton of sliders, which has been effective (in a tiny sample, SSS warning here) in generating weak contact. But just as we saw with Brandon Maurer, he doesn’t have a good pitch to go to against lefties. As a result, they’re destroying him. But also like Maurer, he may find some success against the Angels’ righty-heavy line-up.
1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, CF
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Bonderman
Justin Smoak Returning
It’s been rumored to happen for several days, but according to Ryan Divish, the Mariners are activating Justin Smoak from the DL and sending Alex Liddi back to Tacoma. Smoak didn’t exactly light the world on fire in Tacoma, but he’s apparently healthy enough that the team feels comfortable bringing him back.
The only question now is what that move means for the line-up. In Smoak’s absence, Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales have been sharing the 1B/DH jobs, which is where they both belong. Morse hasn’t played the outfield since May 28th, as his leg issues have kept him from being able to run, and Morales’ back started giving him problems after he played first base 14 times in 16 games, and he hasn’t touched the field since.
If the Mariners want to stick Smoak back into the line-up, they basically have two options: put Morse back in the outfield or create a 1B/DH platoon that gives all three of them regular days off. Realistically, they should probably do the latter.
Despite the team’s glaring lack of outfielders, Morse just isn’t physically capable of playing the OF at an acceptable Major League level. For his career, he has a -17 UZR in over 2,200 innings, and running at half speed, he’d be even worse. While playing the outfield, Michael Morse provides no value to the team, as his defense more than offsets any contributions he makes at the plate. He’s okay at first base, since doesn’t have to move around as much there, so limiting him to 1B/DH duties is more likely to keep him healthy and maximize his value.
Not that Jason Bay, Endy Chavez, or Raul Ibanez provide any value in the outfield either — or even the recent version of Michael Saunders, though at least he still has talent — but none of those three are going to have any trade value at the deadline. The Mariners could probably give Ibanez to a contender who wanted a left-handed bat off the bench if they wanted, but you’re not getting anything in return for him. Playing those three regularly is a problem from a winning games perspective, but you’re not actively tanking potential trade value.
With Morse, though, sticking him in the OF and giving his legs a chance to tighten up again might actually take away from the team’s chances of moving him for something in order to salvage some value from the debacle of a trade that brought him back in the first place. If the Mariners just tell him that he’s a first baseman who will get some DH at-bats too, they have a shot at keeping him healthy through the end of July, and might be able to convince an offensively challenged contender that he could fit into their needs for the stretch run. You’re not going to get a king’s ransom for Morse either, but there’s a better chance for teams to put in positive scouting reports on the guy while watching him play first base and hitting some homers than butcher balls in the outfield and missing time because his legs are hurting him.
Smoak isn’t good enough to be an everyday player anyway, and Morales’ health problems mean that scheduled days off aren’t the worst thing in the world for him. Toss in Morse’s leg issues, and the best bet here is probably for a 1B/DH rotation, giving all three a chance to play both spots but not asking any of them to be everyday players.
And then, in July, the Mariners can ship Morse off to a contender and play Smoak everyday the rest of the year if they want to give him a final push to see what he do as a full time player. For the next six weeks, though, a job share is probably in order, because the idea of Michael Morse as an outfielder just didn’t work.
Game 71, Mariners at Angels
Aaron Harang vs. Jason Vargas, 7:10pm
The deal made perfect sense when it happened, and with the benefit of a half-season’s hindsight, it looks like one of the fairly rare cases wherein both teams ‘win.’ The Angels rotation had a FIP of 4.33, good for 21st in the league – and that was *despite* getting a full year from ace Jered Weaver. The back of the rotation fell apart as Ervin Santana and Dan Haren gopher-balled their way into terrible seasons, and Garrett Richards continued to confound the Angels (and me) by being crappy. But their offense looked great, and they added Josh Hamilton in the off-season. They used surplus corner IFs to cover their weakness, and it’s worked out great. Jason Vargas has been an excellent starter, having already eclipsed last season’s low fWAR and with an even better RA than last year’s. With the injury to Weaver, the Angels needed Vargas to be consistent, and he’s been exactly that.
The Mariners’ offense has been terrible since the dawn of the Bavasi era, and they needed an upgrade. They thought Kendrys Morales could not only replicate his rate stats, but improve upon them (adjusted for park/context, of course) the further from his injury he got. So far, so good. Morales has a slightly better wOBA and wRC+ playing every day than he did last year for LA. The M’s offense isn’t good by any stretch of the imagination, but their team wOBA starts with a ‘3’ for the first time in a while, albeit barely (it’s at .300 on the dot). They needed a middle-of-the-order player to help them cash in when Seager and Ackley (ha ha…ha..ha) got on base, and he’s done so.
Unfortunately for both teams, there’s quite a gap between a trade working out perfectly and an entire roster working out perfectly. The Angels FIP is just a tiny bit better than last year, and Joe Blanton has inherited Santana’s HR problems. Jered Weaver went down, and Richards once again failed to grab the rotation spot that I thought he’d take back in 2011 or so. The M’s offense is better, but still not good enough, and unfortunately for them, injuries have wiped out much of the pitching depth they had when they agreed to trade Vargas. No one was ‘wrong’ here and both teams would probably make the deal again today. But both teams are waaaay out of the playoff race.
Vargas is much the same guy we remember from his days in Seattle with one exception: he’s stopped throwing his slider/cutter to lefties as much and has replaced it with a curveball.
1: Chavez, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Morse, 1B
6: Ibanez, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, CF
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Harang
The Jackson Generals lost a 1-0 game today; Anthony Fernandez was the hard-luck loser.
Gonzaga alum Tyler Olsen makes his debut for Everett tonight.
A number of M’s draft picks signed, but there’s word that the M’s landed their biggest target – 2nd rounder Austin Wilson. His slot value was just over $1m, but as a guy many thought could’ve gone in the 1st round, it’ll be interesting to hear what the M’s had to commit to get his signature. Here’s hoping he suits up for Everett very soon.
What Is Rushing A Prospect?
Over the weekend, Mike Zunino clubbed his first-ever major-league dinger, a fact made only slightly less impressive by the fact that Henry Blanco also clubbed a dinger against the same opponent. Zunino was able to go deep in the major leagues because Zunino is playing in the major leagues. This became our reality last week, when the Mariners aggressively responded to Jesus Sucre’s disabled-list stint. Some fans lamented that Zunino was being rushed, despite there being other alternatives in a lost season. The Mariners themselves admitted that they moved up their Zunino timetable. As we understand the term, Mike Zunino has most definitely been a “rushed” prospect.
This is widely thought to be a bad thing, rushing prospects. Bad and irresponsible, and that’s made clear even by the simple word choice, since “rush” comes with negative connotations. To rush a prospect is to promote him quickly, before he seems ready, and consensus is teams shouldn’t do that with kids since those kids are arguably the most valuable assets. It’s generally an argument about long-term thinking: promote a guy too fast and he might be overwhelmed in the bigs. He might not be able to make the necessary adjustments. He might lose all his confidence, and a baseball player without confidence is an athletic baseball fan. Rushing a prospect is the first step toward ruining a prospect, and there aren’t that many steps.
We’re going to leave aside, for the sake of this post, talk about team control and Super-2 considerations. That has to do with money, and I just want to talk about the players. I think we all have a pretty good understanding of the importance of team control, so this doesn’t need to be talked about at length.
In a way, to ask “what is rushing a prospect?” is to ask “why are there minor leagues?” The minor leagues exist to help players develop on the way to making the majors. I like to go bouldering, which for those of you who don’t know is basically ropeless rock climbing. Different routes have different difficulties, starting with VB for “Beginner” and going from there to V0 and V1 and V5 and V10 and so on. When you just get started, you don’t go straight for V5 or V6. You start easier, and you learn techniques and improve, and you go up a level when you’re ready. This is just the way that it’s done, and if you went right for a V8, you might not ever get yourself off the ground. Or maybe you will. But the conservative approach is the accepted one.
We accept that players go through the minors in a certain order, some of them taking longer than others. But there’s a chain of levels, and players are supposed to hit every level. When they succeed at each level, they get promoted to the next. That’s what we take for granted to be the right approach, and so it catches our attention when someone moves quickly. Because it’s unusual, we always get talking about the risk. Who would be so irresponsible, with such an important young asset?
Seems to me the most general purpose of the minor leagues is to put a player in position to be able to confront the major-league challenge. Every single player, no matter how much time he spent in the minors, will have to adjust to big-league competition. Ten years in Triple-A won’t get a guy ready for the majors. The minors are supposed to tell you which guys are ready to try it out, and which guys require further development or evaluation. Which guys seem the most likely to succeed, and which guys seem the most likely to be able to handle failure.
Player evaluation can’t be done independently of competition level, but you can get close. Some guys can be ready soon, no matter where they’re playing. Not ready to be good right away, but ready to begin the adjustment process. It’s that last adjustment process that’s the most important one, the one when you get to the majors.
What happens when a player comes up and fails? He learns the adjustments he needs to make. He absorbs a shot to the confidence. He’ll try to make those adjustments, and he’ll work on them with a big-league coaching staff. He’ll either see progress, or he won’t. If the adjustments don’t take, the player might get demoted to the minors to work without the spotlight and pressure. But these are adjustments that would’ve had to happen. As for the confidence factor, the simplest statement to make is that players who wilt under self-doubt don’t advance that far. Players, also, can be evaluated during their slumps. They would’ve been evaluated when they were brought into the organization. With Zunino in particular, no one seems to doubt his ability to tackle some adversity. After all, he was just slumping in Triple-A. He handled it, he worked at it.
Surely, there have been prospects in the past who were rushed, and who wound up busting. Of that there’s no question in my mind. But at the same time, there have also been prospects in the past with whom teams were patient, who wound up busting as well. By “rushed,” I mean moved up quickly, questionably and aggressively. Prospects of all kinds fail, and prospects of all kinds succeed. Just yesterday I was noticing Jose Fernandez’s stats. He’s 20 and the Marlins promoted him straight from Single-A. He’s been outstanding. Rafael Furcal came up from Single-A. Rick Porcello came up from Single-A. Albert Pujols came up from Single-A. A group of “rushed” prospects will be selective for prospects teams think can handle the pressure and adjustment, but if it’s a dangerous strategy, where is the compelling evidence?
That’s really the heart of this post. We accept, almost to an individual, that rushing prospects is a bad idea. We think rushed prospects are those promoted too aggressively, or when they don’t appear to be ready based on their minor-league performances. But is there good proof, or is this just conventional wisdom that no one’s ever truly investigated? When the Tigers put Porcello in their rotation, John Sickels called it “batshit insane.” Porcello was fine, if underwhelming for a while, and while he’s only now started to strike guys out in the majors, he didn’t strike guys out in Single-A before he was promoted. Porcello was rushed, according to observers, and I think the Tigers would say it was a success.
Remember, a young player can always go back to the minors if he struggles too badly at first. The Red Sox were said to have rushed Jackie Bradley Jr., and he was demoted after going 3-for-31. If that dealt a blow to his confidence, though, it didn’t seem to matter, because Bradley immediately started hitting well in Triple-A, even though he’d never been there before. Alternatively, we might consider Aaron Hicks. The Twins were said to have rushed Hicks, and he finished April having batted .113/.229/.127. Since then, he’s batted .218/.262/.445, and while that’s not good, Hicks is learning on the job. He’s never played in Triple-A. Hicks is adjusting, like all prospects will have to do.
As for the confidence issue, if you have a player whose development might be stunted by experiencing a period of low confidence, that’s bound to come up eventually, whether he’s rushed or whether he’s taken care of cautiously. If these players exist, at some point they’ll slump, and when they slump, they’ll have bigger problems. You can’t leave a player in the minors for so long that he’s just immediately ready for the majors, no problem. There will be challenges, unavoidably.
I think our understanding of “rushed” is probably mistaken. I think the minor leagues, certainly, are important. You can never be fully prepared for the majors without having seen the majors, but you can be more prepared, and the more prepared you are, the smoother the adjustment. But I think adjustments can be made in the majors, and if not the minors remain an open option, and while I’m not closed off to the idea that moving a guy quickly can destroy his career, I’d really like to see some compelling evidence. Some careers are just destined to end up destroyed. I think, probably, there are guys who would be rushed, guys who shouldn’t be, but I don’t think those guys get rushed by their organizations. I think the players who get rushed, according to our definition, are the players who have been judged by their teams to be ready to meet the challenge. Take the Mariners. They’ve said they didn’t want to move prospects too quickly in response to short-term needs. They moved Zunino quickly, in response to a short-term need. Some of that, perhaps, was indeed desperation, but I think the team believes Zunino is ready to see what this level is all about. I think they believe he can handle it, physically and mentally. They wouldn’t have done this if they thought it would kill Zunino’s career. I don’t know why one would believe that it could.
I don’t think enough is known about how prospects are handled. I don’t think careers are as fragile as they’re made out to be.
Mariners and Angels Battle for Third
| MARINERS (31-39) | ΔMs | ANGELS (30-39) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -8.2 (17th) | 4.7 | 32.1 (5th) | Angels |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -10.2 (22nd) | -4.9 | -21.0 (25th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 21.5 (5th) | 3.3 | -28.4 (28th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 3.3 (11th) | -0.8 | -6.0 (28th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 6.4 (14th) | 2.2 | -23.3 (19th) | MARINERS |
I’m traveling this week so today’s series preview comes with very abbreviated commentary. Just the facts, ma’am, as some old person might have said on some old TV program.
2013 Everett Aquasox Preview
Even though I don’t write often here anymore, I still write a lot, and with the Aquasox being the team of local interest for me, I really can’t avoid this one.
I’ve seen a lot of Aquasox teams over the years and made various predictions based on roster composition and performance. This one, I just don’t have a good feel for. To broadly characterize the team, it’s composed of a lot of players who had high billing or showed elite physical abilities or flashes of potential at some point in the past, but who have yet to put it together or haven’t had the chance yet. This means a lot of potential for volatility. The team could have a bunch of breakthroughs and turn out to be amazing! It could also have a blend of good and lackluster performance and come out with a middling record. It could also continue along what has been more or less the status quo and just frustrate all of us. This is the scenario I least prefer.
To summarize what you’ll be seeing below, the bullpen arms are live and oft troubled, the catchers can catch and little else, the infield has a fair amount of hitting potential from a lot of the guys that we’re waiting to see in action, the outfield seems to be a mix of power guys and speed/defense guys, and the rotation is some sort of UN council.
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Game 70, Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Bartolo Colon, 1:10pm
Happy fathers day to all the dads out there. Thanks especially to my own dad for taking me to the Kingdome in the early 80s, and helping to wrangle my kids when we head to Cheney stadium now.
A day after the M’s 41-year old Henry Blanco broke up a scoreless tie with a late grand slam (!), the Athletics counter with their 40-year old ace, Bartolo Colon. I still can’t quite believe that Colon is still pitching, effectively, in the big leagues. I can’t fathom that the fire hydrant-shaped fireballer who came up with the Indians is now a command pitcher whose game is based to a ridiculous degree on spotting a 90-mph fastball. The guy who walked around 4 per nine in the late 90’s/early 00’s now walks almost no one, especially right-handers. And of course, the guy who was busted for performance-enhancing drugs (finally, an explanation for this sorcery!) comes off his suspension, turns 40 and is posting one of the best seasons in his long career.
Many pitching coaches preach the value of simplicity and not trying to do too much. Colon would seem to be the poster child, or perhaps poster grandpa, for that principle. He throws about 80% fastballs at this point, most of them sinkers. He’ll throw a slider to righties and he’ll use the slider and a change to lefties, but they’re not exactly put-away pitches. With two strikes on a righty, he’ll throw a fastball 75% of the time. With two strikes on a lefty, it’s over 80%. When he’s behind in the count, it’s essentially a guarantee that the batter will see a sinker. There’s no ‘pitching backwards,’ no ‘out-thinking the hitter’ – none of those things that pitchers with tons of experience are often said to rely on. Colon has become successful not by taking the Jamie Moyer/Frank Tanana/Freddie Garcia route, but by giving up any pretense of ‘craftiness.’
Of course, by not throwing his change-up much at all, and relying on a sinker whenever he’s behind (and even when he’s not), he’s got platoon splits. This is actually a good match-up for fellow 40+ player, Raul Ibanez. By wOBA, he’s run about 80-point splits since his A’s debut. By FIP, it’s even more stark, with the gap at over 2 full runs. But the gaps are so big in large part because right-handers are just neutralized. And again, he’s annihilates righties despite not striking them out. His K% against righties in his year-plus with Oakland is right about the same as Joe Saunders’ career K% rate; that is to say, it’s low. He makes it work by not walking *any* of them, and by limiting home runs. His HR% to righties is under 1%, and that’s helped to keep his FIP against them well below 3. Lefties are another story, of course, though again, limiting his walks has helped limit the damage they can do against him. Against lefties (and, perhaps, when he’s away from the spacious Coliseum), his approach changes a bit – he gets more strikeouts, walks more, and pays a higher price for mistakes. But ultimately, he knows his own stuff and knows his home park, and he’s made his limited skillset work.
Hisashi Iwakuma turned himself into an elite pitcher, though he utilizes the tried-and-true method of using a knockout breaking ball to strike a bunch of people out. It’s not as bizarre as Colon, but everything about Iwakuma is more fun to watch that Colon, so there’s that.
M’s line-up:
1: Chavez, CF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Morse, 1B
7: Bay, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Iwakuma
The M’s are going for a three-game road sweep of the first-place Athletics, which is almost as insane as Henry Blanco winning game two with a grand slam. Baseball often makes no sense, and I love that about it.
On a day the M’s face a righty with big platoon splits, Michael Saunders gets a day off and Jason Bay’s in the line-up. What’s sad is that it may be for the best. Saunders had a rough day yesterday, with some WPA-killing failures with men in scoring position against AJ Griffin, and his long slump doesn’t appear to be stopping any time soon.
These two teams’ AAA affiliates play today in nearby Sacremento with 39-year old Brian Sweeney getting the start for Tacoma.
The bigger story in AAA yesterday was a huge brawl between Memphis and Albuquerque. The Redbirds’ Maikel Cleto (ex-M’s prospect who went to St. Louis for Brendan Ryan) and Rob Johnson (well, you know) were involved. Video here. Hat tip to Mike Curto.