Game 110, Mariners at Orioles
Joe Saunders vs. Wei-Yin Chen, 10:35am
I once commented on some first-glance similarities between Wei-Yin Chen and Blake Beavan – both pitched off of a located 90-91mph fastball with lots of vertical movement, both had breaking balls that didn’t generate a ton of whiffs and both were extreme fly-ballers. Given the audience of mostly M’s fans, I have the feeling that many may have come away from that thinking that Chen wasn’t all that good. In fact, I think he was one of the best free agent buys of 2012, and he’s been excellent (when healthy) in 2013. Chen isn’t overpowering, and he gives up plenty of fly balls, but his fastball is sneaky-effective.
Chen’s biggest strength is holding lefties at bay. Using his four-seam and slider, the Taiwanese southpaw has a wOBA against lefties under .300 (300 lefties faced), and a FIP under 4. As an extreme fly-ball guy, he’ll give up his share of home runs, but he generates lots of infield pop-ups, a good number of strikeouts and limited walks. Against righties, he uses a change-up, which has also been quite effective. Still, he throws his fastball around 60-70% of the time, and that’s been the key to his success. While righties have had a bit more success against Chen’s fastball (as you’d expect), they hit plenty of pop-ups and swing and miss on it more than you’d expect. Chen’s not a strikeout guy; his K% is down from last year, and it was under 20% to begin with, but this isn’t a bad profile. Sure, you’d have to expect his HR/FB to rise a bit, but Chen’s returned 4fWAR in his first two years while earning all of $6.6m.
1: Miller, 2B
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, CF
8: Ryan, SS
9: Blanco, C
SP: Joe Saunders
Well, they’ve got more righties in the line-up to counter Chen’s platoon advantage, but Ryan/Blanco aren’t confidence-inspiring.
Stephen Pryor’s been shut down for the season due to a problem with his triceps. He’s been rehabbing his way back from the 60-day dl with a lat issue, and given the upheaval in the M’s bullpen, this is a tough break. But given the M’s aren’t in the playoff hunt, it makes sense to get him back 100% healthy for 2014.
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49 Responses to “Game 110, Mariners at Orioles”
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Given the sad recent exploits of our bullpen, would’ve been kinda nice to see Pryor back firing bullets before the end of the season, but it’s sound reasoning and I’d much rather have him next year anyway.
Go M’s.
Finally, Raul with a solid hit with RISP! It’s been a while.
Infield is not doing Saunders any favors today.
Miller is really inconsistent on defense. He makes great plays on occasion, but boots simple ones far too often.
It bugs me that Thompson prioritized Miller’s bat over Franklin’s defense, especially given how things went for Joe Saunders the last time out. But it doesn’t surprise me – this management simply doesn’t think defense matters all that much.
Hey Raul – nice catch!
That was the scouting report Westy. Definitely a concentration issue that he will need to work through to be a valuable defensive player.
Our defense needs to improve significantly for the M’s to be a playoff caliber team
not sure I agree with you – if we are going by errors alone Ackley is the best fielder with no errors at 2nd base for the season – but seems limited in range. Franklin actually has 8 errors this year to Miller’s 4. My eye says Miller is the better fielder of the two and when you put Ryan at ss you should have a plus infield defence. Now if we are talking lack of fielding appreciation with our corner outfielders I am in the choir with you on this one.
We’ll have to disagree on Franklin vs Miller Casey.
And I actually do think Ackley is the best defensively at second – but I realize others differ with me on that as well. 🙂 I can call on UZR to support me there though.
What’s really amazing about this AB by Smoak, is that it comes hitting right handed.
14 and counting…
Smoak’s already won this AB. He’s worked Chen over well.
Ha! Love it!!
Smoak!
Why were they initially waving Raul in? Datz really seems like an idiot sometimes…
nice at bat by Smoak.
BTW if I’m going to call on UZR, I’m forced to admit that (in the small sample we’ve got so far) Miller’s UZR is average right now – and that’s at short. That supports Casey’s position.
Are there any sabermetrics that measure a team’s scoring position running efficiency? It seems we have many players who can never score from second on a single (whether the single is to right or left field).
It’s not really sabermetrics even – but there are stats for performance with RISP on Fangraphs and other places.
Off hand I’m not sure how to get to those team stats – but for individuals it’s just a matter of clicking on the “splits” link over ther.
Actually found it. With men in scoring position, Mariners OPS is .705 this year. With bases empty it’s .666.
I think the perception is due to the fact that, for much of the year, the Mariners have just sucked at hitting period.
Would the current Ichiro have been fast enough to get that double that got by Morse?
Oh! All those words and I wasn’t even reading the question right! I’m sorry.
for much of the year, the Mariners have just sucked at hitting period.
I know we’re so used to thinking this that it’s pretty ingrained, but the Mariners have a league average offense.
Wow. He wasn’t even looking at the ball as that went in.
enazario, I apologize.
I am unaware of any stat that measures baserunning specifically when in running position, just overall. And several of our guys suck at it. 😀
Regarding speed and base-running, it would be kind of fun to see players times for a 90 foot sprint recorded and posted in spring. 180 after a 45 degree turn at 90 as well.
djw, you are right. However as far as I can tell, they haven’t been obviously worse with RISP either (which was the question) – so that point stands.
Oops, I meant a 90 degree turn. Or maybe something between 45 and 90:P
Hehe, Steve.
Ryan flips it to Jones? Who’s Jones?!
Baltimore commentators apparently struggle with names.
Saunders can wiggle off that hook only so many times. Get some runs, guys!
*sigh*
Ugly swing and miss by Smoak there for strike 3.
Well that didn’t work.
That was classic Mariner base running, unfortunately.
HANK!!
Funny! Of course this happens after the Saunders pick-off.
Blanco!
Blanco entertains.
Blanco’s motto should be: “I don’t always hit with RISP, but when I do, it’s a home run!”
What was Cacitrala thinking? Hahahaha
Westy, he was wondering where all these players with AARP cards are coming from…
Miller actually has a higher UZR this year than Franklin, and Franklin needed a day off. He looked more than lost at the plate.
^ Yup, I admitted further down that I was being inconsistent. 😉
That was a lame looking swing, Raul.
Nice play there, Brad!
Endy as a defensive sub for Raul – it’s beginning to be a trend…
Woo hoo!
Lord Farquhar
Let’s just keep playing game 110!
Score one for results-based analysis!