Mariners have Awkward Reunion with Expansion Siblings
| MARINERS (52-59) | ΔMs | BLUE JAYS (51-60) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | 24.0 (9th) | 9.1 | -8.4 (17th) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -25.0 (27th) | 3.3 | -6.6 (19th) | Blue Jays |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 13.6 (10th) | -1.6 | -13.4 (23rd) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -3.4 (21st) | 0.7 | 9.2 (10th) | Blue Jays |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 9.1 (11th) | 11.4 | -19.2 (17th) | MARINERS |
That’s a way to rebound, taking two of three from the Orioles and showing off some hitting skills while doing it. As area that I’m finding encouraging is that while Miller and Franklin are both struggling a bit lately, they both are maintaining some positive traits. For Miller, it’s the plate disciple as he has five walks to just seven strikeouts (and remarkably, only one swinging). With Franklin, it’s the power as his ISO over the past two weeks is over the .200 mark.
They’re (hopefully) both in slumps, but unlike some of the players we’ve seen (*cough* Ackley *cough*), neither appears to turn into a completely useless player while in the slump.
Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager and Kendrys Morales on the other hand are just all kinds of hot right now, in the hitting streak department. And Justin Smoak’s .293/.396/.415 line from the past fortnight is basically what I hope he’s able to maintain over the long haul: decent average, good walks, mediocre power. Sure, good power would be better (duh), but I aim for achievable, I hope.
Just in case you forgot, the Blue Jays have Steve Delabar and he’s pretty awesome. The Mariners traded Delabar for Eric Thames, whom they never really used and eventually traded for Ty Kelly, who’s actually doing quite well (.905 OPS) down in Tacoma. So I guess you never know. You never know.
It’s R.A. Dickey for the Blue Jays tonight against Iwakuma. It’s always a little fun to watch Dickey pitch as I bear neither him nor the team any ill will over their separation. Dickey was bad as a Mariner, it made sense to let him go. Then he figured something out and got incredible, then he was average again, then he was incredible, and then this year he’s been average again. Guess what! You never know. But you can click through to the pitching charts in case you’ve been curious what color I assigned to knuckleballs in the scouting graphs.
I actually managed to come up with positive stuff here, which surprises me a little. True, it’s always easier to be upbeat after a winning series. But the Mighty Seahawks are about to start fake-real games and the Sounders just did what the Mariners basically never have — spend out their nose to bring in a missing piece in the midst of good season. And the Mariners just keep on being the Mariners.
I guess I’ve just re-calibrated my expectations bar at this point to where I’m only looking for them to be passively interesting. Congrats, Mariners, you are managing to clear that bar. Care to try for the next rung?
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | K (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Miller* | 59 | 3.5 | .204/.271/.278 | 5 | 7 (1) | 8 / 2 / 1 / 0 | 93 | 113 | 62 |
| K Seager* | 58 | 4.2 | .367/.448/.531 | 8 | 11 (8) | 13 / 3 / 1 / 1 | 95 | 107 | 92 |
| K Morales^ | 57 | 4.1 | .407/.456/.648 | 2 | 9 (5) | 15 / 4 / 0 / 3 | 108 | 96 | 141 |
| N Franklin^ | 57 | 3.7 | .192/.263/.404 | 5 | 19 (14) | 5 / 2 / 0 / 3 | 98 | 97 | 115 |
| R Ibanez* | 50 | 4.1 | .152/.220/.217 | 4 | 16 (15) | 4 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 101 | 92 | 123 |
| J Smoak^ | 48 | 4.4 | .293/.396/.415 | 7 | 12 (11) | 9 / 2 / 0 / 1 | 104 | 105 | 146 |
| M Saunders* | 48 | 4.4 | .268/.375/.610 | 6 | 13 (11) | 5 / 2 / 0 / 4 | 100 | 93 | 107 |
| D Ackley* | 32 | 3.4 | .194/.219/.258 | 1 | 6 (4) | 4 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 94 | 110 | 111 |
| H Blanco | 24 | 3.8 | .217/.250/.522 | 1 | 6 (6) | 2 / 1 / 0 / 2 | 101 | 81 | 128 |
| E Chavez* | 22 | 3.3 | .227/.273/.273 | 0 | 0 (0) | 4 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 115 | 116 | 93 |
| M Morse | 22 | 3.4 | .227/.227/.500 | 0 | 6 (6) | 1 / 3 / 0 / 1 | 144 | 92 | 109 |
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | SO (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw- | Ct+ | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Reyes^ | 63 | 3.7 | .273/.365/.491 | 8 | 10 (9) | 9 / 3 / 0 / 3 | 89 | 106 | 118 |
| J Bautista | 61 | 4.5 | .288/.377/.500 | 8 | 8 (6) | 10 / 2 / 0 / 3 | 79 | 108 | 76 |
| E Encarnacion | 58 | 4.1 | .423/.508/.673 | 5 | 5 (4) | 15 / 4 / 0 / 3 | 85 | 100 | 138 |
| B Lawrie | 55 | 3.5 | .292/.364/.542 | 6 | 6 (3) | 8 / 3 / 0 / 3 | 96 | 114 | 91 |
| C Rasmus* | 55 | 4.0 | .377/.400/.547 | 2 | 15 (12) | 13 / 6 / 0 / 1 | 102 | 93 | 142 |
| A Lind* | 54 | 3.9 | .160/.222/.320 | 4 | 14 (12) | 4 / 2 / 0 / 2 | 94 | 94 | 80 |
| M Izturis^ | 43 | 4.0 | .162/.326/.189 | 6 | 2 (2) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 89 | 115 | 119 |
| J Arencibia | 40 | 3.4 | .158/.250/.184 | 2 | 10 (8) | 5 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 110 | 89 | 119 |
| M Cabrera^ | 32 | 3.4 | .290/.313/.355 | 1 | 3 (1) | 7 / 2 / 0 / 0 | 115 | 119 | 89 |
| R Davis | 27 | 4.0 | .269/.296/.308 | 1 | 2 (2) | 6 / 1 / 0 / 0 | 113 | 101 | 92 |
| MARINERS | ΔMs | BLUE JAYS | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | -5.1 (20th) | 1.6 | -23.2 (27th) | Mariners |
| OUTFIELD | -19.8 (23rd) | 1.8 | 16.6 (7th) | Blue Jays |
| RBBIP | 0.318 (28th) | -.002 | 0.309 (15th) | Blue Jays |
| OVERALL | -25.0 (27th) | 3.3 | -6.6 (19th) | BLUE JAYS |
05 AUG 19:10 – HISASHI IWAKUMA vs R.A. DICKEY
06 AUG 19:10 – FELIX HERNANDEZ vs JOSH JOHNSON
07 AUG 12:40 – AARON HARANG vs TBD
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Farquhar | 55 | 101 | 5 | 84 | 23 (20) | 91 | 0 | 129 | 1.2 |
| Y Medina | 52 | 99 | 3 | 93 | 13 (9) | 124 | 3 | 85 | 1.4 |
| C Furbush* | 50 | 99 | 7 | 91 | 15 (10) | 75 | 2 | 135 | 1.5 |
| T Wilhelmsen | 45 | 92 | 8 | 96 | 8 (6) | 104 | 0 | 124 | 1.9 |
| L Luetge* | 36 | 91 | 4 | 98 | 4 (2) | 104 | 0 | 90 | 1.3 |
| O Perez* | 36 | 101 | 3 | 100 | 8 (6) | 54 | 2 | 180 | 1.4 |
| B Maurer | 25 | 98 | 0 | 93 | 3 (2) | 132 | 2 | 92 | 0.3 |
| Reliever | BF | Str+ | nBB | Ct- | K(sw) | GB+ | HR | Qual- | LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Loup* | 46 | 100 | 4 | 101 | 7 (4) | 134 | 0 | 83 | 1.0 |
| S Delabar | 43 | 110 | 3 | 93 | 18 (15) | 32 | 2 | 169 | 1.3 |
| J Perez* | 43 | 94 | 8 | 102 | 8 (6) | 141 | 2 | 89 | 0.5 |
| B Cecil* | 39 | 91 | 7 | 107 | 8 (5) | 159 | 1 | 72 | 1.3 |
| D Oliver* | 38 | 88 | 5 | 107 | 8 (3) | 103 | 2 | 95 | 0.5 |
| D McGowan | 36 | 91 | 6 | 99 | 5 (5) | 125 | 0 | 118 | 1.2 |
| C Janssen | 30 | 103 | 3 | 104 | 10 (5) | 105 | 0 | 68 | 1.7 |
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6 Responses to “Mariners have Awkward Reunion with Expansion Siblings”
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Matthew, I think I remember reading about what exactly goes into “Sw-“, “Ct+”, and “Qual+” back when you were doing these previews over at LL – but at some point could you give a refresher? I looked, but I don’t see them on StatCorner.com (maybe I’m just blind).
Thank you!
There are some rundowns if you go back in the previews to the first couple that I posted this season here.
Quickly though, anything with a + or – at the end means that stat is graded against the league average.
So if a hitter has a 76% contact rate, while the league has a 79% contact rate, the hitter gets a 96 (which is .76/.79) Ct+.
I figured it was easier to see that vs100 ratings than keeping in mind what are “good” or “bad” rates for contact, swing, strike, etc.
Anything with a + at the end means >100 is better. A – means that <100 is better.
So for hitters, you want higher contact (Ct) rates, so it's Ct+. For pitchers, you want lower contact rates, so you'll see Ct-.
Sw = swing rate
Str = strike rate
Ct = contact rate
Qual = a composite stat that looks at the batted ball distribution (GB, FB, LD, pulled, other way, etc) and provides a rough estimate of "how good" a hitter's batted balls have been.
They have Delabar, but we won’t see him
Similarly, they have Munenori Kawasaki but we won’t see him either, as he’s back down in AAA.
Thank you sir.
It is bizarre how Ackley continues to have peripheral numbers that look very good, yet the results continue to be quite disappointing.
If anyone else was also interested in the extra info from one of Matthew’s early previews (like he mentioned), here ya go:
http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/04/08/the-mariners-arrive-home/
OK, so I have a question.
It would seem that according to RAA the Mariners should be contending for a playoff spot, figuring that 5 teams in each league make the playoffs (so roughly the top 10 teams).
Instead they are well below .500. Their Pythag doesn’t say they are hideously unlucky.
So… what is the discrepancy here? RAA or the M’s record? Is this really a true-talent team that should be above .500 that’s just gotten hosed on some sequencing of how their hits and opposing hits have gone together, or the fact that most of their pitching strength is stacked 1-2? Should we be paying more attention to RAA or things like Pythag when assessing this team?