Game 149, Mariners at Cardinals
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Shelby Miller, 11:15am
Shelby Miller, the former #1 prospect for the Cards, is putting together an excellent rookie campaign; in another year, he might get some rookie of the year votes, but with Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey in the league, that’s just not going to happen. MIller uses his mid-90s fastball and big curve to rack up strikeouts, and he’ll also throw a couple of cutters and change-ups to give hitters another look. That he’s already an above-average MLB pitcher isn’t a huge shock – he was the Cards first round pick in 2009, and overpowered the lower minors in 2010 and 2011. That’s why many (including me) were surprised when he showed up in the PCL and got annihilated. Through June of 2012, Miller had given up 51 runs and 16 HRs in just 15 starts spanning just 71 innings. His velocity seemed to be down (though he was still putting up a decent K/9), and he simply wasn’t able to pitch out of trouble.
Like Rangers’ prospect Martin Perez, something clicked for him in the middle of the year, and he was able to regain the form that allowed him to destroy the AA Texas League. After dominating in a late-season call-up, he started 2013 in the Cardinals rotation, and he’s been excellent all season. His 3.6 FIP isn’t perfect, but the RA and K% (just about 25%) are good signs. His problem this year (and last, actually) has been the long ball. Miller’s fastball is thrown from a 3/4 angle and has led to a lot of elevated contact. It’s not a very high vertical movement pitch like Wacha’s, but it’s the primary reason Miller’s posting a GB% below 40%. His curve actually *does* get grounders, but for a valuable pitch, it gets a stunning lack of whiffs. I know curves aren’t always designed for swinging strikes (as they freeze hitters instead), it’s interesting that Erasmo Ramirez’s curve has a higher whiff rate…and it’s Ramirez’s third- or fourth-best pitch. Indeed, if you just looked at some plate discipline or pitch fx data, you might be surprised by Miller’s K%. His o-swing’s below league average. His curve generates contact, not strikes. He allows more contact overall than the league average. Part of the answer is that he’s always around the zone. His zone% is well above average, and he throws his curve for strikes instead of trying to get batters to chase it low and out of the zone.
Related to the HR problem is a factor that makes this a better match-up than you’d think: Miller’s always struggled against lefties. Miller’s curve actually has sizeable platoon splits, and his overall splits this year are fairly high. It’s a small sample, but it matches the pattern he showed in the minors; he had a 4.84 FIP vs. lefties in the PCL last season. The M’s line-up isn’t a bad one to face Miller, and while Guti starting ahead of a lefty bat isn’t ideal, the M’s still need to see what he’s capable of. Triunfel over Brad Miller is clearly sub-optimal, but the M’s didn’t have a choice after Brad injured his hamstring yesterday.
1: Ackley, 2B
2: Almonte, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Gutierrez, RF
6: Saunders, LF
7: Quintero, C
8: Triunfel, SS
9: Erasmo Ramirez, SP
It’s looking increasingly like Ackley’s move to CF is on life-support, if it isn’t over. Part of this may be related to Nick Franklin’s struggles offensively and defensively there, but I’m guessing the proximate cause is Abe Almonte’s emergence as a switch-hitting option in the OF. That’s cool and all, but doesn’t make the M’s off-season decisions regarding Ackley, Franklin and Saunders any easier.
In case you missed it, I wrote about the new NPB single-season HR king Wlad Balentien (and the first foreign contender for that record, Randy Bass) below.
Erasmo Ramirez has had a really odd season, with an uncharacteristic walk rate, HR troubles, and now platoon splits (none of which plagued him last year). That said, he’s been a solid option for the past month. But given Paxton’s emergence, he could probably use a solid close to his 2013 season to ensure he’s still penciled in to the rotation in 2014. Given his arm troubles, I think it’s likely he could take a big step forward next year, especially if his command returns. But with two injuries in two years, he’s got to show he can withstand the grind of an MLB season (especially given his stature). C’mon, Erasmo.
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38 Responses to “Game 149, Mariners at Cardinals”
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The team is limping towards the finish line…
Ugh. Quintero. I’d allowed myself to forget about him and Blanco for a while.
I suppose one bit of good news is that Ackley seems to be continuing to hit.
He doesn’t have much power, but if he can get on base at a good clip that’s okay. It only becomes a problem when another second baseman who has power but doesn’t get on base a lot (btw Jose Lopez says hi from Japan) comes along, since even in our group we’ve seen that power is seductive.
When’s the last time Quintero started? I’d forgotten about him too. Blanco is unforgettable, of course.
I dunno Sims, I’d rather that Triunfel not just wildly hurl a ball because he’s supposed to. Let’s keep it clean today,okay?
Wow, so THAT’S what a full ballpark looks like…
Oh please stop with the small ball talk…
Gutierrez’s double would have driven in at least one of those runs, and quite possibly both, without the sac bunt that came before it.
And let’s not forget Kendrys’ home run…
Boy, Adams has had to deal with a lot of errant throws these past two games.
Yeah, the booth team has not figured out the ‘giving up an out to move a runner 90 feet isn’t usually a good thing’ concept yet.
I don’t care how you parse it, only get 27 outs a game to score. When will they understand that?
Nice defense by Dustin there!
Probably one of the rare chances to score this game. Let’s see if it happens.
As much as we’re seeing of Guti lately… it makes me wonder if the team is seriously considering picking up that option?
It usually isn’t, but giving up an out and getting nothing doesn’t work either. Avoiding DP’s is nice also. No way a pitcher scores from first on that double. Too many teams have been successful playing “big” ball and “small” ball to say either way won’t work. Right here by hitting to the right side instead of the left you get a base and the infield in. Sure you would have preferred a hit , but no one hits 1.000. Now we have the unintentional intentional walk to setup the DP. Defensive small ball if you will. Now it’s up to players to execute
Brendan Ryan where are you?
Now that’s a shot. Hit both the catcher and ump in the nuts. Oh, I’m sorry, ‘upper thigh’ for Quintero.
Brendan where are you?
Remote, where are you? Ah, right there…Which football game to watch?
A game of inches
Turnabout is fair play.
As much as we’re seeing of Guti lately… it makes me wonder if the team is seriously considering picking up that option?
I can see it now: 21 million between Morales and Gutierrez, and Guti ends up not playing two thirds of the season due to septicemia, after giving himself a paper cut during the signing the mutual option..
Ackley’s beard is reaching the point where it is probably slowing him down on steal attempts due to wind resistance.
I COULD see turning down Guti’s option and then signing him on the open market
Getting a base and a run for an out. Yeah I still want a hit but it beats a K or the ol’ 4-6-3
Getting a base and a run for an out. Yeah I still want a hit but it beats a K or the ol’ 4-6-3
Out by a whisker
Did we just get “homered” on Ackley’s steal?
Should have never said homer
Yesterday’s game was nice, wasn’t it?
It’s hard to believe Capps is this bad, but I have no problem believing Lafromboise is this bad.
Capps must have no movement on his pitches, or that little hesitation/hitch he has prior to release allows the hitter an extra split second to line up the release point. His location isn’t great, either.
Every time I flip back, there’s more runs. And in the wrong box.
Good luck in Detroit.
Well, they did better in St. Louis than I thought they would – and they are still trending strongly for a protected pick. Not that they will sign a top tier Free Agent, but at least they might have one less excuse for why they didn’t.
Triunfel does take a mighty hack … And now a hit ! Wow. A hit.
And that’s how it’s been going for Nick. Pretty awful for the last 6-7 weeks.
Saunders and Mauer in Motown, I’m optomistic
What a great game.
Saunders an Mauer in Motown makes me optimistic, too. Assuming the 10 run rule is in play and can be utilized for the first time in Major League history.
You think Chance Ruffin is getting all these appearances so the team can decide once and for all whether or not to dump him from the 40-man after this season? He is just awful. I hate him, but some of that might be Fister trade disaster residue.
Even a six man rotation unfortunately still lets Joe Saunders pitch.
…so, it’s not like these guys are really playing hard for (or to keep) Wedge.
On the plus side, we get to watch Cabrera hit the next few games. That should be awesome.