Game 147, Mariners at Cardinals
‘Kuma vs. Adam Wainwright, 7:10pm
Depending on your point of view, you may look at tonight’s game between two elite starters, two guys who might generate Cy votes if it wasn’t for some otherworldly seasons in their respective leagues. Or, you may see it as a match-up between a great team locked in a tight divisional race versus a bad team playing out the string.
Like many of you, I think about/watch/talk about the M’s *a lot* and I wouldn’t consider myself a casual fan. But there’s no question, as I head to this Sounders game, which group I fall into.
Wainwright’s known for his big overhand curve, and he also throws a sinker, cutter and a rare change. This season, with his velo pretty much 100% restored after his injury year in 2011, he’s throwing many more four-seams, and the pitch looks very good.
1: Miller, SS
2: Almonte, CF
3/ Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Saunders, RF
6: Ackley, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Franklin, 2B
9: Iwakuma, SP
Abraham Almonte’s Background
If you haven’t yet, go read this excellent feature on the back story of Abraham Almonte, as told by T.J. Coterill in the Tacoma News Tribune.
About four years ago, Almonte was hovering over a toilet, tears running down his face. He was drunk and pouring a bottle of booze into the porcelain bowl.
Almonte said he craved alcohol like water after a long workout. He hated this addiction. He wanted out. He knew it was ruining his life.
“I would just be crying, thinking ‘I can’t be doing this,’ ” Almonte said. “But the next day I would buy the same bottle and start drinking again.”
The whole thing is worth your time.
Eric Wedge and the Problem with Scapegoating
Last night, local radio host Steve Sandmeyer tweeted out the following:
I have it on pretty good authority that Eric Wedge will not be back.
— Steve Sandmeyer (@SteveSandmeyer) September 12, 2013
The Mariners just got swept at home by the Astros. This is the kind of series that leads an ownership to decide to fire someone, even if they were originally planning on staying the course, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Sandmeyer’s sources were correct and that Eric Wedge does not return as manager next year. In fact, I think I’d be surprised if he did, given the team’s performance and his mid-season health issues.
I’ve clearly made my disagreements with Eric Wedge known throughout the last few years. I think he’s particularly poor at identifying the differences between good and bad players, and has consistently put inferior players in the line-up over better alternatives, due to the fact that he simply values things in a way that do not line up with what players do to win and lose games on the field. Wedge is as old school as old school gets, and his lack of interest in adopting anything that has become accepted knowledge in baseball front offices over the last 20 years remains a problem.
But that said, blaming Eric Wedge for the 2013 Mariners would be just yet another example of the organizational scapegoating that has unfortunately become the norm during the last five years.
When the 2010 Mariners fell apart, and Ken Griffey Jr decided to act like a five year old on his way out of town, Don Wakamatsu got the blame. Rather than standing up for his manager when problems arose, the front office sided with the players, effectively cutting the legs out from under his first managerial selection and laying the blame for that team’s failures at the feet of Wak and his staff.
When the team got embarrassed by Josh Lueke’s past transgressions, Carmen Fusco was made the sacrificial lamb. Instead of standing up for his childhood friend, Jack allowed the organization to throw Fusco under the bus for something that simply wasn’t his responsibility in any way, shape, or form. Fusco was made to be the fall guy for a decision he had nothing really to do with; in fact, he was on an airplane, out of contact with the rest of the front office, when the decision was made to back out of the deal with the Yankees and take Texas’ offer (that included Lueke) instead.
More recently, Tony Blengino was phased out of the organization in large part due to the failure of Chone Figgins. The Mariners spent $36 million on Figgins and got a worthless player that everyone hated, and again, someone had to take the blame for that acquisition. Rather than own up to the fact that Figgins was someone that a lot of people saw value in, it was easier to just blame the stat guy and his stupid math.
At some point, you can’t just keep blaming everyone else. It isn’t always someone else’s fault. Eric Wedge had a hand in building this roster, and there are valid reasons to make a change at the managerial position, but it is simply not fair to Wedge — or an accurate portrayal of the 2013 Mariners season — to decide that he’s the man primarily responsible for this disaster of a season. He’s somewhat responsible for contributing to some of the decisions made over the last few years, but again, Jack is the one who hired him, essentially without input from the rest of his staff.
If a GM has, in a five year span, churned through two managers and a couple of top assistants because there have been that many mistakes that someone has to be fired for, perhaps it’s time for the GM himself to take the responsibility. Even if we really believed that Wak was to blame for the Griffey situation, that Fusco was to blame for the Lueke acquisition, that Blengino was to blame for signing Figgins, and that Wedge was to blame for this team’s inability to hit, field, or pitch, Jack hired them all. What does it say about his ability to build a quality organization if he has to scapegoat one of his own hires every year in order to deflect blame from himself?
A significant part of a GMs job is hiring good people and empowering them to do good things. Even just beyond the roster construction and the general failure of the team to make any progress this season, it has to be considered a stain on Jack’s ability to lead the organization if he has to admit, annually, that he hired the wrong guys.
Even good organizations let people go, and good organizations change managers, so letting Wedge leave wouldn’t, by itself, be an indictment of the front office. But it would be part of a disturbing pattern, and one that shouldn’t be allowed to continue. If Jack is willing to stipulate that he’s now hired the wrong manager twice, and he hired the wrong director of pro scouting, and he hired the wrong stat guy, then maybe Jack just isn’t the guy you want hiring people in the first place.
Beyond just that, though, there’s actually a more practical reason why letting Wedge take the fall for this season simply won’t work: managerial candidates want job security, and Jack Zduriencik can’t offer them any.
If the front office decided to let Wedge take the fall for this season, and brought Jack back for one more year, there is no question that it would be a win-or-go-away season. It would be one final shot, a chance to put a winning team on the field and redeem the last four years of losing. And if it didn’t work, then Jack would be on his way out of town.
What quality managerial candidate is going to volunteer for that gig? Win in year one or you’re gone, because the new GM is going to want to hire his own guy, so you get a single season to try and turn this thing around. No establishing your own process, bringing in your own people, developing a culture; just come in, hope to have an amazing winter, and then win from day one. If you don’t, you’re gone, and who knows when your next shot at managing is going to come. What a tempting offer!
Chili Davis would scoff at that. Dave Roberts would scoff at that. Every interesting managerial prospect is going to want to know that they’re going to be given several years of not only guaranteed salary, but a real opportunity to implement their own vision and plan, and help build a team that they think can make a sustained run at playoff success. The only guys who are signing up for one-and-dones are re-treads who are afraid it might be their last shot at getting back into the game and wouldn’t have a job otherwise anyway. But good candidates aren’t going to have any interest in taking a job from a guy who has one last shot to prove that he can build a winner.
If the Mariners are going to conduct a serious managerial search this winter, it has to come after a front office overhaul, because you can’t plan on getting a good manager to take over under these circumstances. To get a good managerial candidate, you have to be able to offer security, and Jack simply shouldn’t have any kind of long term job security at this point, if he has any left at all.
If Wedge is leaving and Jack is staying, the only real option is to promote from within, picking one of the current guys on the staff to take the head job. But then again, if Eric Wedge was the problem, why should we believe that one of his lieutenants is the solution?
Firing Eric Wedge alone doesn’t work. It not only continues a too long trend of scapegoating, but it puts the organization in a position where they won’t be able to hire a real long term replacement. If Wedge is going, everyone has to go. The Mariners made this bed with both Jack Zduriencik and Eric Wedge, and letting one take the fall for the failures of both creates more problems than it solves.
It’s time for new voices, but just swapping out the manager’s voice for a new lame duck manager’s voice isn’t going to do anyone any good.
Game 146, Astros at Mariners
Brandon Maurer vs. Brad Peacock, 7:10pm
Man, is this series still going? :sigh:. Ok, Felix was supposed to start this one, but he’s been scratched due to back tightness. That sounds, and actually is, a bit concerning, but it’s also somewhat comforting to see the M’s take it easy with their ace. Felix wanted to pitch, because Felix always wants to pitch. In this game, at this point, it’s probably a good idea that he doesn’t.
This opens the door for Brandon Maurer, who’ll make his first start since late May, when he was demoted to AAA Tacoma. At that point, we thought we had a good handle on Maurer and his problems. His FB/Slider arsenal was good against righties but terrible against lefties, who killed him. Dave’s post was written May 1, when Maurer had allowed a .250/.304/.359 mark to righties (with 16Ks to 2BBs), and a 359/.424/.717 line (with 2Ks and 6BBs) to lefties. Clearly, this wasn’t going to work, and a few weeks later, the M’s agreed. Some argued that his line against lefties was absurd, and was inflated due to bad luck on HR/FB and the like – essentially, that he was nowhere near a 1.030 pitcher, true-talent, against lefties. Regression would take care of these extreme platoon splits – the question was always going to be: how much?
Maurer’s returned with an altered delivery and more curve balls, and he’s brought his splits against lefties down to a .321/.377/.588 mark, so yes, there’s been a touch of regression there. The problem, however, is that he’s not pitching like a situational righty. Right-handers season line is all the way up to .320/.393/.496. His splits have evened out all right, just not the way we wanted. He’s been a bit better since his call-up, improving his strikeout rate markedly, for example. He’s also improved his GB%, though again, this is all small-sample stuff produced entirely out of the bullpen. At some point in the year, I think we’d all have been pretty interested to see Maurer’s first game back as a starter. At this point, I think a lot of us will watch this game through our fingers.
Maurer never had a really odd angle, but he’s moved over a bit on the rubber (I think) and now throws more over-the-top as well. That’s not a bad thing to try, as the more sidearm or the further out towards 3rd/1st base you release the ball, the higher your platoon splits should be (all other things being equal).* It’s altered the movement of his pitches, though it’s probably still within the margin of error. It’s simply a good idea that may not be working.
I was thinking of a very similar situation watching last night’s game. Carter Capps was facing a few, uh, let’s just say ‘flawed’ right-handed batters, and three straight reached base. Carter Capps had large platoon splits last year, but it was something we could live with because RHBs had *no chance* against a ball released over 4 feet to the right of home plate, travelling 98MPH. Lefties got a long look, but they didn’t exactly drive the ball against him. This year, for whatever reason, *everyone* is driving the ball off Capps. Dave mentioned that he was worried about Capps’ splits coming into the season, and those splits were the proximate cause of Capps’ demotion. He returned with a similarly altered delivery. Similar not in that it now looks like Maurer’s – of course it doesn’t. But he clearly got the same advice. He moved his release point about a foot back towards the plate (by moving about a foot on the rubber), and he’s releasing the ball higher as well. It’s a perfectly good move in theory, given his main problem. But righties now have an above-average wOBA against Carter freaking Capps, and it’s not like lefties find him particularly troubling now either.
Jeff mentioned it in his piece on Capps, but change is actually pretty easy for pitchers – easier than I think is traditionally assumed, I think. The problem is that we don’t really know what changes are going to lead to substantially better outcomes. Pitchers come to the big leagues because whatever they do has worked. Maurer blew away MiLB lefties with his slider, just the same as Madison Bumgarner did. Carter Capps destroyed righties a year ago, and didn’t allow a HR at any level. Ichiro’s stance was so odd, that many evaluators thought he’d never hit MLB velocity. Any change can produce unforeseen consequences, but any change may take a while to stick – to go from something you’re consciously trying to remember to do to something your body does automatically. Brandon Maurer’s changes haven’t had the desired effect (or rather, they’ve had a minor desired effect, and what’s starting to look like some big side effects), but it’s possible that they can “work” with yet another tweak. It’s also possible that the only way Maurer can be effective is to go back to what got him to the big leagues and work on his actual pitches, not how he throws them. I have absolutely no idea which approach is best for Maurer or Capps. I’d really, really like to think the M’s do. But it’s hard.
1: Miller, SS
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, 2B
This’ll be Ackley’s 4th start at 2B since August 1st, or the 4th since his official position switch. Nick Franklin has been awful at the plate in the 2nd half, so this is the M’s attempt to get both Ackley and Saunders’ bat in the line-up. Dave’s made it clear that he thinks Ackley’s the better 2B bet going forward, which probably necessitates a trade of Franklin. I’m still unsure, given that Ackley still doesn’t show much pop (which means he’s going to be dependent on BABIP). Given the roster, the M’s can’t keep both long term, and whoever they trade is going to command far, far less than we’d have assumed a while ago. Franklin isn’t the guy with a low K rate and surprising HR pop right now, he’s the guy who can’t hit a curve. Ackley’s the guy with terrible career numbers and a demotion/position switch on his resume. Other teams positional battles are much more fun than ours.
* If you’ve been curious WHY this is true, read this piece at BP.
Mariners Aware Of Tim Lincecum
A lot of people were upset when the Mariners passed on Tim Lincecum in the draft, because the fit seemed so natural and obvious. It could be that the Mariners simply preferred Brandon Morrow, or alternatively it could be that they just didn’t know Lincecum existed. Forgot to scout their own area and everything. Happens. But the Mariners definitely know about Lincecum now. For one thing, they faced him last season. For another, there’s a report out the Mariners have been scouting Lincecum in advance of his free agency. The Mariners have been looking at Tim Lincecum on purpose, meaning the Mariners have at least thought about trying to get him signed to a contract a few months from now.
And, yeah, that much was easy to see coming. The Mariners are going to have money, and they’re going to need pitchers, and Lincecum is a local product who might feel strongly about a chance to go home. He’s not so good he’ll be priced out of the Mariners’ range. The Mariners would be justified if they passed on Lincecum again, but they’d have to explain — he’s still a guy people want to see in this uniform. He might not be the prom king anymore, but he’s got his life all in order, and he still has the pictures.
Fans have talked so much about Lincecum that it’s really difficult to separate the reality from the reputation. Absolutely, a Lincecum acquisition would get people excited — excited about the Mariners! — but that isn’t reason enough to charge ahead. The Mariners need to figure out what Lincecum is, now. And good luck to them, because he’s a damned mystery.
Part of the argument for signing Lincecum is that he’s local. The much bigger rest of the argument is this: he has Cliff Lee’s strikeout rate. His rate of contact allowed this year falls between Matt Harvey’s rate and Stephen Strasburg’s rate. Tim Lincecum remains very difficult to hit. His contact rate is as low as it’s ever been. Even with his diminished repertoire, Lincecum still misses a ton of bats, and if there’s one thing you most want in a pitcher, it’s the ability to make hitters miss. That’s the most important and reliable skill.
But, you know, there’s everything else. The last couple years, Lincecum’s given up a lot of runs, in the National League, pitching half the time in a pitcher-friendly environment. He walks people a lot, and his stuff is slower, and plenty of people think he’ll be a reliever soon. Plenty of people prefer him as a reliever right now. Over the last two years, despite working in San Francisco, Lincecum has allowed one of the league’s higher home-run rates. It’s easy to ignore that in one season. Two’s enough to make you nervous.
On the other hand, a few numbers. I looked at the top ten worst HR/FB rates for starters between 2011-2012. The average was 13.7%. The average for the same pitchers in 2013 is 10.2%, actually a little better than the league. But Ricky Romero’s 2013 was excluded, because he hasn’t pitched. And this is a little sample. And what might be a rule generally isn’t always a rule specifically. The matter with Lincecum presumably goes beyond a splash of bad luck. He’s allowed too many runs, and the Giants haven’t gotten him fixed, even if he has been a little better this time than last time.
Lincecum misses bats like an ace, but he’s probably a back-of-the-rotation starter with a bit of upside and a real chance of just going kablooey. Because of his name and because of his talent, he’s still going to get paid, and because of his name and because of their financial flexibility, I expect the Mariners to be deeply involved. I can’t speak to the wisdom. With Lincecum, I just have to throw up my hands and accept that I’ll know the future truth when the future truth is revealed.
Lincecum’s going to be extended a qualifying offer, and I imagine he’s going to turn that down, so a signing team would forfeit a draft pick. As we learned last offseason, the Mariners highly value their first-round draft picks. But we also know from their Hamilton pursuit that they’re not completely committed to keeping them, so we can’t say anything for sure. Right now, the Mariners stand to have their first-round pick protected, since they’re one of baseball’s ten worst teams. That would make it easier to stomach the loss of a pick, but the Mariners aren’t far from 11th and a lot could change between now and the end.
Given that Lincecum is so mysterious, it seems potentially unwise to sacrifice both money and a high pick. If the Mariners don’t have their first-round pick protected, there’ll be a legitimate argument that they shouldn’t give up that pick and its corresponding flexibility for such an obvious risk. How good could Lincecum possibly be? Isn’t drafting this organization’s alleged strength? But for one thing, the pick could be protected yet. And for another, I’d look for the Mariners to be hot after Jacoby Ellsbury, too. Ellsbury will turn down a qualifying offer, and he’s really good, and if the Mariners were to hypothetically land both Ellsbury and Lincecum, you could think of the higher pick being given up for the better player, and the lower pick being given up for the risk. Ellsbury’s a player worth the loss of a mid-first-rounder, and then the second round is far less important.
Naturally, lots of teams would want Ellsbury and Lincecum, and we can’t just assume anything. All we know is that the Mariners will have holes and money to spend. For those two players, there’s a local tie. This front office never says anything, but so much money is coming off the books, and it sure seems like their preferred course is predictable. Spending on those names would attract attention from an area spending more and more time thinking about other diversions. Not that you make front-office decisions just to make fans happier, but both Ellsbury and Lincecum seem like agreeable fits, and the Mariners could be in position to over-spend.
Ellsbury’ll cost a fortune. Lincecum, I don’t know, but maybe three years and $35-40 million. I don’t know what the qualifying offer is going to do to his market value. We know the Mariners have the money, and by scouting Lincecum recently, they’ve at least indicated their interest in making a splash. That’s as much as we can say today. If I knew what the front office was thinking, I wouldn’t be writing this, because I’d either be working for the front office or the government.
It’s a coincidence that I wrote the first word of this post at 4:20. But the Mariners are aware of Tim Lincecum, and he’ll be a free agent pretty soon. Get ready for that, and for everything that’s going to come with it. This is going to be an offseason experience.
Part-Time Superstar
I’m wearing my yellow King Of Perfection t-shirt. That much is a coincidence — I set this shirt aside yesterday without much thought. Clean laundry is overdue, and this is a shirt I can run in when it’s 95 degrees. It’s not like I flash back in time every time I put this shirt on. At this point, it’s a shirt, that doesn’t pair well with other things. But it’s a shirt produced in honor of Felix Hernandez’s perfect game last August. Had one Ray reached, I wouldn’t be wearing this shirt. Had one Ray reached, I wouldn’t be writing this paragraph.
The Mariners have never won the World Series. I’m pretty sure the Mariners have never had a positive run differential; I’m definitely certain the Mariners have never made the playoffs. Those old years are just dreams they created and embedded in us, artificial memories we cling to because after enough time passes it doesn’t matter whether something really happened or not. There was never an Edgar Martinez. Just a few dozen John Marzanos. I do still have positive and real memories of the Mariners, though, and the conclusion of Felix’s perfect game was the most excited I’d been in years. I remember dancing, actually dancing, alone in that hot apartment that hot afternoon. The Mariners didn’t win the World Series that day, but I can’t imagine anything could’ve made me feel much better. On a scale of happiness, a World Series might make me feel 100. Felix put me up at 98.
Barry Zito’s contract is almost up. Presuming, that is, the Giants don’t pick up his $18-million option. That’s a contract that easily could’ve been ours, and it’s considered one of the worst contracts in recent memory. Over seven years, Zito’s posted an 86 ERA+, going 62-80 and only getting worse. Giants fans can’t wait to be rid of Zito and his drain on the payroll. But what has to be acknowledged is that, while Zito was on the team, the Giants won two titles. Had Zito not been on the team, the Giants might have won zero titles. Sports are complicated. Last October, Zito beat Lance Lynn. Later last October, Zito beat Justin Verlander. For San Francisco, Zito was a disappointment from the beginning, but no one would give it all back. With the roster as constructed, the Giants lived the dream. Zito’s contributions served a purpose.
With the Mariners’ roster as constructed, Felix Hernandez threw a perfect game. Granted, with the Mariners’ roster as constructed, Felix barely won, but it all worked out perfectly, the sum of all the little bits. An important catch was made early on by Eric Thames. A few important plays were made by Brendan Ryan. Without Ryan, maybe Felix is still perfect. With Ryan, we don’t have to wonder. That happened, we experienced that, and that’s a feeling we’ll carry with us. It was Ryan who didn’t lose focus when Kyle Seager dove for a grounder he couldn’t reach. It was Ryan who didn’t panic when Jeff Keppinger dribbled a soft grounder for out #26. The game didn’t feature Brendan Ryan at his best, but the thing about Brendan Ryan is that his ordinary is someone else’s extraordinary.
Another very fond memory of mine is the Mariners’ six-pitcher combined no-hitter against the Dodgers. That’s a fond memory for the absurdity, for how comical it was, and naturally, again, the Mariners won 1-0. That game probably doesn’t happen were it not for Brendan Ryan, because Brendan Ryan did this against one of the game’s fastest runners in the top of the ninth:
When you picture a skilled defensive shortstop, you imagine a lot of lateral range. Ryan has that, but Ryan also has more, which he put on display in the clip above. There’s forward range. There’s instinct, there’s positioning. There’s arm strength, and there’s arm accuracy, and there’s focus in stressful situations. As Ryan Divish has written in the past, and as has also been blatantly obvious, Brendan Ryan has ADD. He finds his clarity and his calmness in the infield. The one thing that settles Brendan Ryan down is one of the most difficult roles in the sport.
Some of my favorite Mariner memories involve Brendan Ryan. It stands to reason that, without him, I wouldn’t today have those same memories. I might have different positive memories, but Ryan did a lot to help bigger causes, and he also did a lot on his own, making insignificant plays that are still hard to forget. They’ve almost all been insignificant plays for the Mariners for years. For a decade. This team hasn’t mattered. But this team has been our team, and Ryan repeatedly did the impossible. Half of the time, Brendan Ryan was a superstar. That much was plainly evident.
The other half of the time, Brendan Ryan sucked. It’s hard to believe he’s twice slugged .400. His Mariner numbers are the same as Jack Wilson’s. They’re the same as Rob Johnson’s. Ryan managed a lower Mariner OBP than Chone Figgins. A lower Mariner OBP than Jeff Cirillo. A lower Mariner OBP than Jamie Moyer. Ryan’s been worth 3.5 WAR, and this has been the subject of much discussion, as people who’ve seen him hit have widely refused to believe he could still be a net positive contributor. And maybe Ryan hasn’t really been worth 3.5 WAR. It’s not like the stat is inarguable and infallible. But Ryan has made us wonder, and Ryan has allowed us to have the conversation. Because of Brendan Ryan, we’ve wondered how poorly a shortstop can hit while still helping the team overall. It’s a question Braves fans have occasionally considered on account of Andrelton Simmons. Not that Simmons is the hitter Ryan is, but right there, it should tell you something that Ryan hit like he hit and still stayed in the lineup.
Ryan isn’t the best defensive shortstop in the league. Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the league. Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in a really long time, seems like. Simmons is 24. Ryan is 31. We wouldn’t expect Ryan to be able to keep up with Simmons, but something incredible is that sometimes Ryan can pull the same things off. Ryan can’t make all of Simmons’ plays, but he can make a lot of them, and Simmons is as good as it gets. A league can contain more than one superstar. As Ryan has gotten older, he’s compensated for his reduced physical ability by being one prepared and alert son of a bitch.
Overall, Brendan Ryan wasn’t a great shortstop for the Mariners, but he was a great shortstop half of the time, and as unpleasant as it was to watch him hit, let’s acknowledge that Ryan’s bat wasn’t the difference between the Mariners we’ve seen and playoff teams. The teams have been bad, and Ryan was a highlight reel. Ryan was a guy who’d make the plays that would make you thankful you tuned in to a go-nowhere game in the middle of August. Ryan would leave us with images to remember, remarkable plays in a game otherwise most unremarkable, and you know that thing he does where he swings and hits the ball and instinctively looks up and around like he popped out? Adorable. Ryan’s been a memorable player on forgettable teams. Maybe if the Mariners were better, I’d feel about him differently, but, well, nope. Last I checked, they’ve sucked a lot. So I’ll take what pleasures I can.
I wasn’t sure why Ryan stuck around this long. I thought he should’ve been on a contender by now, and I anticipated writing this post in July. You’d figure he could’ve at least helped a team off the bench, but instead now he gets three weeks on the Yankees, filling in for the irreplaceable. Because of Ryan’s defense, we’re going to be more critical of Brad Miller’s defense. It’s just too jarring a transition. And because of Ryan’s defense, perhaps Yankees fans will finally acknowledge the issues with Derek Jeter’s defense. It’s just too jarring a transition, not that Jeter’s lately been active. But those people haven’t seen a good defensive shortstop in something like 20 years. They won’t get a lot of Brendan Ryan, but they should get enough, and maybe they’ll realize a thing or two. Maybe they’ll just get a couple of Web Gems.
A happy ending would’ve been sending Brendan Ryan to the playoffs. As is, because it’s September, he’s ineligible. But then, the Yankees are only two games back of the wild card. These are their playoffs, at least until or unless they make the playoffs, so Ryan gets to feel the intensity of a race. It’s the next-best thing, even if he’s with a bunch of new guys, so this isn’t an unhappy ending. It’s a long move, after which Ryan gets to temporarily share a clubhouse with Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte. It’s a long move, after which Ryan gets to have baseball’s most intense media market watching his defense and covering what he can do. Ryan’s probably wondered about the future of his career. It wouldn’t be the worst thing for him to make a few plays in New York.
Over time, we tend to exaggerate our baseball memories. We make the pitches a little faster, the swings a little harder, the hits a little longer, the crowd a little louder. Over time, we’re going to exaggerate our Brendan Ryan memories. But they’ll hardly be exaggerations. Brendan Ryan’s defense is a difficult thing to exaggerate. Thank you for the time, Brendan Ryan. I’ve loved some of it.
Blame the Kids or the Vets?
In the comments of the post just below, a sentiment was echoed that has been a pretty common refrain from the apologists for the organization’s off-season. The comment:
Five of the eight hitters in the opening day lineup were under 27. The fact that only one of them has turned out to be any good (and our two top prospects may not actually be major league ballplayers) is the issue. I know it’s tempting to blame this team’s failures on the underachieving veterans, but the bigger issue was the far more disappointing young players.
Since people like to make this claim and then say something like “everyone thought their prospects were good, so give the front office a break”, let’s just look at the facts. We’ll break the Mariners roster in half using that age-27 dividing line, with anyone younger than that being a “kid” and everyone older than that being a “veteran”, except we’re going to remove Felix Hernandez from the sample entirely, because doing so would give the “kids” the benefit of his performance when no one considers him a kid anymore. And no one thinks Felix is the problem, of course. So here’s how the other 24 guys break down.
| Team | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Def | BsR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kids | 2886 | 0.245 | 0.319 | 0.391 | 0.314 | 97 | -31.7 | 2.9 | 5.9 |
| Vets | 2624 | 0.237 | 0.296 | 0.397 | 0.304 | 90 | -55.7 | -14.0 | -1.5 |
| Team | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kids | 486 | 4.76 | 4.00 | 3.77 | 3.6 |
| Vets | 631 | 4.45 | 4.32 | 4.07 | 4.7 |
The final tally, with almost exactly a 50/50 split in playing time, is +9.5 WAR for the kids (again, not counting Felix) and +3.2 for the veterans. Oh, and just for fun, here are the combined salaries for the two groups:
Kids: $19 million
Vets: $45 million
The Mariners veterans produced were paid almost $15 million for every win they produced. But, yeah, it’s the kids fault that this team sucks. Yep. Blame the kids. Just make sure you don’t let facts get in your way.
A Tale of Two Cities
Before the season began, the Miami Marlins blew up their roster, as they are known to do. A year after spending a bunch of money in free agency, the organization tore the team down to the bare bones. They traded away Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson in one single trade, then stripped almost all of the rest of the players making any real money from the roster over the rest of the off-season. They entered the season with a $40 million Opening Day payroll if you don’t count the money they were paying players to play for other teams, and it was only that high because they waited until mid-season to shed Ricky Nolasco‘s $11 million contract.
The highest paid player on the Marlins right now is a tie between Adeiny Hechavarria and Placido Polanco, each making $2.75 million. Greg Dobbs, at $1.6 million, is in a tie for third with Juan Pierre. You get the idea. This is not a team with Major League players, and it is not a team that put any real effort into trying to win baseball games in 2013. This was a roster of prospects and scrubs, with the Marlins doing exactly what people in Seattle accuse the Mariners of doing; going cheap for the primary purpose of making a huge profit.
The Mariners, though, put real effort into trying to field a winning team. They spent the entire off-season replacing young guys with older ones, bringing in a host of veterans who were supposed to help lead the team to a winning record. They gave Felix Hernandez a monstrous contract extension in order to keep him in Seattle. They tried to sign Josh Hamilton, then tried to trade for Justin Upton.
The Mariners spent the entire month of March telling anyone who would listen that they had finally built a team worth watching, a good team full of guys who could hit and were going to change the tide for the organization. This was a roster that was built with the intention of contending in 2013, or at least being good enough to get the fans interested in baseball once again.
As of tonight, the run differential tally:
Seattle: -113
Miami: -118
The M’s tried to keep their pending free agents in order to use the last few months to spin this season as something other than a total failure; it hasn’t worked. This team is really, truly awful. This is the kind of finish that gets people fired.
But, hey, at least they’re using the opportunity to evaluate the young guys who could be part of the next good Mariners team, and not just wasting at-bats on guys who won’t shouldn’t be here next year. Oh…
Game 145, Astros at Mariners
Joe Saunders vs. Jordan Lyles, 7:10pm
Tonight’s game marks Joe Saunders 30th start for the Mariners. It’s also Jordan Lyles’ 4th *against* the Mariners this year. “Enough” is a slippery word, and one person’s excess is another’s aperitif, so I will only speak for myself: I’ve had enough Joe Saunders vs. Jordan Lyles. I’ve had enough Mariners-versus-Astros. Last night’s game had promise, and it lived up to it, if only to spoil it with one of the worst final 2 innings I’ve ever seen. This game doesn’t have that. I found it somewhat disheartening that last night’s game -the great pitching prospect showdown – took the ignominious crown as the least-attended game in Safeco’s history. It’s a gorgeous evening in the Northwest, and a part of me would like to go, just because catching a ballgame is fun. The other, less charitable, part of me really wants tonight’s game to set a new low, and get Taijuan Walker’s name off of something he couldn’t control and did his best to render ironic/stupid.
I don’t know; maybe Abe Almonte will do something cool? Maybe Chance Ruffin will continue his bizarre career turnaround.* Maybe Nick Franklin will get off the schneid and drive a breaking pitch, or something. Maybe Mike Zunino will get it going again. Maybe we’ll all look back at this as one of those bizarre nobody-saw-it-coming good games. There’s a chance, but I – like many who read and write here – am more interested in probabilities.
1: Miller, SS
2: Almonte, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Gutierrez, RF
7: Smoak, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Franklin, 2B
SP: Joe Saunders
* Seriously, a year or two ago, the Actual Jason Grilli turned from journeyman 25th-roster-spot guy to a nuclear-powered closer. This year, Neil Cotts went from minor-leaguer I’d be surprised to see in the PCL to shut-down lefty. Danny Farquhar throws 95 now and, yesterday aside, has been excellent. The reliever spot is just nuts, and if, I don’t know, Shigetoshi Hasegawa came out of retirement throwing 95 and mixing in a devastating 12-6 curve, it might not top the list of reliever career turnarounds. For the year. So I’m kind of surprised at my own reaction to Chance Ruffin’s very brief success in MLB (yes, yes, he had a walk-off loss too) – it’s been basically a 5-minute long spit take. This is simply not the same pitcher he was last year in Tacoma, and that’s basically the theme with relievers. The past is not prologue; for many, it’s completely irrelevant.
Game 144, Astros at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Jarred Cosart, 7:10pm
A late-season game between two bottom-dwellers, long since eliminated from contention, both with goals that go beyond – and may even conflict with – trying to put themselves in the best position to win *this* game, in early September of 2013. That game begins as the first Monday Night Football (just about any NFL-related term or phrase just begs to have a trademark associated with it, and I say that as a fan of the game) contest of the year ends, and the second begins. Even for those of us who actually care about the M’s and Astros – how do we resist the biggest brand in US sports, not to mention the spectacle of a Seattle franchise that’s, you know, good, and good now, and not in some nebulous future? You may not care about whoever’s playing on MNF, but isn’t there something odd about expending mental energy on a baseball game that’s much more like a scrimmage or a practice than something that changes or illuminates our understanding of the teams and the game?* Isn’t that what we sometimes mock – the weird way that the media will send 50 people to practice fields and intone seriously about what it means that the Coach mentioned X before mentioning Y?
This pitching match-up is the antidote to all of that woe-is-us apathy, a clear, concise rejection of the idea that this specific game is meaningless and without merit. It could be great TV, pleasingly devoid of the over-the-top theatrics, the stentorian voices and million-selling singers patting you on the back for watching.** This is game exudes potential, and that’s important for fans of the M’s and Astros. The match-up involves two of the top 100 prospects in baseball dueling for the first time – two prospects whose rise to the big leagues seemed inevitable, and whose arrival atones, partially, for the god-awful seasons their clubs have played to date. We’re learning about players who could be franchise cornerstones, and that’s enough. Tomorrow night, uh….huh. Give me a minute.
Jarred Cosart came to the Astros in the Hunter Pence deal in 2011. Blessed with an upper-90s fastball, a curve and a change, he was a classic tools prospect. He was the big prize in the Pence deal despite fair-to-middling statistics – the big fastball and decent secondaries limited hits, but he couldn’t keep runs off the board and his strikeout totals never matched the pure stuff. He got grounders, was solid against lefties, and yet on the whole, Cosart was judged a disappointment. After a social promotion to the PCL, though, something may have clicked. His GB% was through the roof, and his strikeout rate ticked up, despite the fact he was facing better competition. Promoted in July, he took a no-hitter into the 7th, and he’s been an intriguing member of the Astros rotation since.
By fielding-independent measures, Cosart’s been freakishly lucky, and not all that good. He’s never had great control, so his walk rate hovering in the teens is disappointing to Astros fans, if not terribly surprising. But his K% has been bad as well, at just over 13%. This is not a finished product, but the raw material is top-grade. It’s going to be interesting to see how he finishes the year, and what adaptations he’ll develop. I’d guess he’ll work on a slider at some point, as he’s struggled against *righties* this year, both in Houston and in the PCL.
Beyond its velocity, Cosart’s fastball is an odd duck in terms of movement. It comes in with essentially zero horizontal movement. In his MLB games to date, it exhibits a slight glove-side movement, akin to the true over-the-top delivery guys like Yovani Gallardo and Clayton Kershaw, but he doesn’t have a delivery like those two. Most with very little horizontal movement tend to generate plenty of vertical movement (like Kershaw, Chris Tillman, etc.), but Cosart’s is normal, perhaps even a touch below; this probably helps him post great GB% numbers, though it shouldn’t do much for whiffs/strikeouts. We’ll see if the M’s are able to elevate the ball tonight.
Tai Walker’s through 10 mostly excellent innings, but like Cosart, has fewer strikeouts than anyone armed with a mid-90s fastball and big breaking curveball should have. His walk rate is and has been solid, but he doesn’t yet have pinpoint command of his fastball. Again, he’s freakishly young, and like Cosart, he hasn’t been hit hard so far, and I’m still a big believer in his ceiling. This is as good a match-up of guys with bad K% as you’ll see.
1: Miller, SS
2: Almonte, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Franklin, 2B
SP: Tai Walker
Sad I missed James Paxton’s successful MLB debut while I was out in the woods, but I’ve been looking over the pitch fx stats. We’ve still got Safeco’s weird/anomalous readings on vertical movement to contend with, but there’s an awful lot to like. First of all, the velocity’s all the way back. I got a taste of this in his last Tacoma appearance, but to sustain that velo over six innings and not two is a great sign from a guy who’s battled durability concerns since college. Second, if you take his vertical movement numbers and double them, it’s still below what he showed in the AFL and in his truly lousy spring training. I don’t want to oversell this, as it’s comparing one data point with some known measurement problems to a baseline in another park with some known measurement problems. The gap isn’t as big as it looks. Still, Paxton’s fastball came in with extremely low vertical movement for someone with an over-the-top delivery. In the AFL last year, his FB was 94mph and had the movement you’d expect from his delivery – low horizontal movement, and tons of backspin providing “rise.” In the spring, he was clearly tired, as his average velocity was just a hair over 90mph, though its movement was basically the same as it was in the AFL. In Seattle, his fastball was not only faster than it was in the AFL, it had sink. Paxton racked up grounders in his last AAA month, but if his vertical movement is around 8-9″ going forward, that’s still an interesting adjustment he’s made over the course of the season. It’s an odd thing, as his delivery makes you reach for Kershaw-type comps, whereas the movement looks more like, well, Jarred Cosart’s, actually.
Like Walker, he didn’t get many whiffs, and I’m quite surprised he didn’t go to his cutter at all, but I’m glad he’s got another offering to use on unsuspecting big league hitters in his next go-round. Between Paxton, Walker’s innings ceiling, Iwakuma’s ceiling/shoulder history and now Felix’s back, the six-man rotation is just perfect for the M’s right now. They haven’t had the depth for it this year, but they should seriously look into keeping it in 2014.
Glad to see Erasmo Ramirez put in another great start too, despite the control problems. I’m still a bit puzzled by his reliance on the slider, but he’s had some success, so I can’t be too concerned by it. Part of it may be the specific line-ups he’s faced, but he’s seeing more lefties this year (as a proportion of total batters faced), so it’s not like teams are starting righties to take the change-up away. Still, he threw the change to righties last year, and he’s not doing so in 2013.
* As an M’s blogger for a few especially barren years, this line of argument makes me uncomfortable.
** In commercials involving the NFL, literally every person is always on the verge of losing their feces. It’s bizarre. Whether at the game, or at a well-attended viewing party, everyone has food and drink in their hands just so they’ll have something to fling when the next unbelievable thing happens. In commercials involving baseball, there are a lot of children dressed in club gear by their parents. I don’t know what this means, but it’s interesting. I love football, but sometimes feel the culture is telling me I’m doing it wrong.