Game 100, Indians at Mariners
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Zach McAllister, 7:10pm
Wooo, 100 games! Through 99 games last year, the M’s were 43-56. Through 99 games in 2011, the M’s were 43-56. In 2010, they were 39-60. It’s been rough in recent years, and the play of Brad Miller/Nick Franklin and the incremental improvement to today’s 47-52 mark is welcome. The M’s recent hot streak has seen them retake 3rd place from the Angels, and while that’s a somewhat meaningless consolation prize, I suppose we’ll take it. There have been no prizes in recent years, with the exception of every day of Felix Hernandez’s existence.
Erasmo Ramirez gets a second chance to lay claim to a rotation spot today. His first start wasn’t good, as he was wild and largely pitched without his change-up…the pitch that got him to the big leagues and that he used to great effect after joining the rotation in 2012. Only ten of his 100 pitches against Boston were cambios; he used it on over 22% of his 2012 pitches. Could’ve been a one-game fluke, but it was a pattern I noticed in his last start in AAA Tacoma, immediately prior to his start against the Red Sox. I’m not sure if he’s having trouble getting a feel for the pitch after his injury layoff, or if he’s not commanding it, or what. After that game in Tacoma, I speculated that Seattle may have asked him to throw more curves/sliders, but that obviously wasn’t it. In any event, that’s a pitch he’s going to need if he wants to get back to where he was down the stretch in 2012. His command is obviously critical as well – the Red Sox (a good hitting team, of course) didn’t chase pitches and forced Ramirez into bad counts (last year, 38% of his pitches came when he was ahead in the count compared to just 28% the other day).
I feel like I’ve talked more about Zach McAllister in these game previews than just about any other pitcher, with the exception of Jerome Williams. If you’ll remember from last year, McAllister garnered some attention by posting an almost absurd gap between his ERA (4.24) and his RA (5.60). His ERA and FIP were dead on, but McAllister allowed a ton of unearned runs. You can argue that this wasn’t his fault, but he’s now pitched 208 MLB innings, or about a full season. And in that time, he’s allowed 29 unearned runs. 29! CJ Wilson’s another guy who racks up unearned runs, but not even CJ can match McAllister’s pace. Ok, ok, this has nothing to do with the game, or his performance against the M’s, but for reasons I don’t really understand, I find this fascinating.
McAllister’s a fastball/slider/change pitcher who throws his four-seam around 70% of the time. In that respect, he reminds me a little of Doug Fister, who came up throwing nothing but fastballs and gradually morphed into a (very good) pitcher with command of several breaking balls.* He throws his FB about 92, and has fairly normal movement for a guy with a 3/4 delivery. Somewhat unusually, he uses it differently to righties and lefties. Against right-handed bats, he’s strictly by the book: he likes to keep the pitch down and away, though he throws middle-away too (perhaps because his command isn’t exactly pinpoint). But against lefties, he keeps the fastball UP and away, not down. As a result, his batted-ball profile changes a bit. Righties hit a few grounders, lefties almost none. It’s a somewhat unusual pattern, but something his teammate Ubaldo Jimenez has employed this year as well. Both of them have GB% that are lower vs. lefties than against righties. As of yet, it hasn’t really hurt him – that is, he hasn’t yielded a flurry of HRs to lefties, and his fastball’s appears to be one reason why. When the batter’s ahead, they are essentially guaranteed to see a four-seam FB. Despite this AND the platoon advantage, lefties haven’t annihilated his fastball. His change isn’t used enough to say much, but in the tiny sample, lefties haven’t had much of a problem driving it. It’s the FB that they’re only so-so against. That’s going to be interesting to watch tonight, as the M’s lefty-dominant line-up will see quite a few fastballs. And after years of being historically futile against FBs, the M’s are suddenly 2nd in MLB in pitch type run value against them.**
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, CF
SP: Erasmooooo
In the minors tonight, Jimmy Gilheeney starts for Jackson, who would just like to play a $#@%ing baseball game one of these days. Steven Ewing starts for Everett who play host to Tri-Cities. Tacoma played this morning, with Andrew Carraway starting against Tucson. Perhaps inspired by Erik Bedard’s bizarre outing against the M’s, the command artist walked five in five innings but didn’t give up a hit. He left with a 4-0 lead, and before the quips about his “guts” or pain tolerance, he’s just back from injury. Unfortunately, the bullpen allowed six runs to score in the sixth, and the R’s are currently behind. Josh Kinney did most of the damage, though the just-demoted Bobby LaFromboise let all three inherited runners score, then gave up a HR in the following inning. Ouch.
Today’s rehabbers include Mike Morse, who knocked a double vs. Tucson, and Franklin Gutierrez, who’s 0-3 as the DH today.
* And, I’d guess that part of Fister’s fastball-reliance was due to pitching coach Rick Adair’s belief in establishing/commanding the FB.
** Yes, I’ve been wary of using pitch type run values in the past, but at a team level I think it could be relevant.
Game 99, Indians at Mariners
Aaron Harang vs. Ubaldo Jimenez, 7:10pm
Last time these two teams faced each other, the M’s came in red hot, and with a good chance to hit .500. A 4-game sweep later, the M’s were in a tail-spin they’ve only recently showed signs of emerging from. So, uh, beat the Indians, Mariners. That weird thing with all of the walk-off losses? Less of that.
I talked about Ubaldo Jimenez at length back when he faced Brandon Maurer and the M’s in mid-May. At the time, he’d just started to show signs that he wasn’t an imminent DFA candidate, and that there was still some talent left in the guy the Indians traded for in 2011. Since then, he’s been mediocre to solid, which isn’t great for a team that’s actually in playoff contention, but again, is a heck of a lot better than the Jimenez of 2012-April of 2013. Yes, his velocity is still down, and yes, his sinker’s still got awful results (in part because he always goes to it when he’s behind). But he’s sticking around, with a FIP on the year of 4.5, and if his walks are elevated, at least he’s getting a few more Ks again.
From his call-up in 2008 through 2010, Jimenez and his 97mph fastball and big slider gave him a nearly insurmountable advantage against righty bats. As his velocity started to drop, he ditched his change-up for a splitter to try and keep lefties off balance. Without premium velocity, lefties were starting to batter Jimenez’s sinker, and the splitter is a great pitch to attack opposite-handed-hitters, as Hisashi Iwakuma knows well. From 2010 to 2012, Jimenez’s wOBA-against to lefties went .265 to .311 to .371. This shows just how bad lefties were hitting the sinker, and that his new pitch wasn’t exactly a panacea. The funny thing is that, as soon as he developed the pitch, he started getting a lot more K’s against lefties than righties. In 2009, he had a better K/9 against lefties, but his K% was still better against righties (as you’d guess). That k% shot up in 2010, to nearly 27% of lefties. It was still around 26% in 2011, even as his results against *righties* were going down the drain. It’s at 24% now, and his K:BB ratio looks pretty good. And that’s helpful, because he’s walked about as many righties as he’s struck out. His command’s essentially gone against righties, but he’s kept the ball in the park. Against lefties, he’s like a very poor man’s Iwakuma: He’s striking them out, keeping walks more-or-less in check, but giving up HRs like it’s 2000 and he’s back in Coors Field.
Aaron Harang’s probably sympathetic. Like Jimenez, he’s had terrible results with his two-seam/sinker, and that’s in part due to the fact that he throws a lot of them when he’s behind in the count to lefties. In 2013, batters (righties and lefties) are slugging .800 on Harang’s sinker. That’s not an OPS, that’s a slugging average. Eight-hundred. It’s slightly higher vs. just lefties, and in any event he hardly throws it to righties. Now, it’s easy to look at a half-season’s results, or a half-season’s results *broken down by batter handedness* and say he needs to change his pitch mix. Of course it’s not that simple – batters might crush the four-seamer if he threw it instead, and Harang’s certainly been around long enough to have some sense of the trade-offs involved, not only for balls in play, but how a sinker may or may not set up other pitches in his repertoire. All of that said, Harang may want to rethink this. His results on the two-seamer since 2007 have been much worse than his other pitches, and sinkers tend to have larger platoon splits than other fastballs (and it’s sort of amazing how many pitchers throw mostly sinkers to opposite-handed batters). 2013 has been unlucky, but at this point, I think it’s looking like the anomalies are those years in which he HASN’T been burned on the pitch.
Unlike Jimenez, Harang’s platoon splits look quite normal. He’s not walking much of anyone, and he’s striking batters out (especially righties) at a decent clip. His problem is focused on HRs, and especially HRs to lefties. It’s easy to say that he needs to pitch around lefties and perhaps trade more walks for HRs, but it’s not that he’s throwing balls down the middle when he’s behind. He’s given up four HRs on the first pitch and another two on 0-1 pitches. Five HRs have come in any at-bat that started 1-0, but five HRs have come in any at-bat starting 0-1. He’s just made some mistakes, and batters have crushed them. That could indicate that this is just terrible luck, and his freakish HR/9 will start to regress if his HR/FB moves back to where it’s been in previous years. But this doesn’t exculpate his sinker, either. It doesn’t prove that’s the problem, either, but the clear majority of his HRs have come on that pitch, and they haven’t all come in 3-1/2-0 counts. Sometimes a pitch looks bad when you strip it from its context. Other times a pitch looks bad because it’s bad.
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, CF
SP: Aaron Harang
In the minors tonight, James Paxton starts for Tacoma as they host Tucson. Pulaski’s Eddie Campbell makes his third start in the Appy League. Campbell was drafted in the 15th round out of Virginia Tech, where the lefty had an up-and-down junior season, but a solid stretch towards the end of the year convinced the M’s to draft him. Yes, he’s a major college guy in a rookie league, but Campbell’s struck out 17 batters in his last two appearances, covering 9 2/3IP, and he’s walked two. He’s always been a big strikeout pitcher, but walks and struggles with men on base left him with unsightly runs allowed figures. We’ll see if he moves up soon.
Victor Sanchez followed up his CG no-hitter with another solid game this morning, throwing 5 IP of 1 R ball in a no-decision. He gave up 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 Ks, to run his season K:BB to 44:8. That’s impressive, but it’s not the best on the team. South African Dylan Unsworth was working on a 44:2 ratio over ten starts, before arm trouble sidelined him in June. Get well soon.
Jackson looks to be rained out yet again. Early this year, it looked like Clinton would have to play 4-5 double-headers a week to get their season in. Now, I think Jackson’s caught them (or passed them) in games lost due to weather. Meanwhile, Tacoma quietly gets nearly every game in, even in April/May.
The first of the biogenesis penalties was handed down today, with MLB suspending Ryan Braun of Milwaukee for the rest of the 2013 season.
The on-again, off-again Matt-Garza-to-Texas trade was finally consummated, with the Cubs getting 3B Mike Olt, P Justin Grimm, and P CJ Edwards from the Rangers. Grimm’s been a back-of-the-rotation starter this year for Texas, while Olt fought through an odd eye problem to resume his power-hitting, strikeout-prone career in the PCL. Olt was a gem of the Rangers system, but that elevated K rate and some statistical stagnation (which may have been caused or exacerbated by that bout of double-vision) cause his stock to fall a bit. CJ Edwards opened eyes in 2012, blasting through Spokane of the NWL with 60Ks in 47 IP. The unheralded righty out of a South Carolina HS was drafted in the *48th* round, but he’s followed that up with an even better 2013. In 18 starts for Hickory, he’s got an ERA under 2 and 122 Ks to 34 BBs in just 93 1/3IP. This is what I’m talking about when I say that I’m basically in awe of the Rangers player development machine. Garza figures to add just shy of 1 win over the rest of the season; not a massive upgrade over Grimm, but an important one for a Ranger club that’s trying to overtake Oakland for the division lead. And as valuable as Olt was, he’s scuffling this season and has no real place to play in Texas with Adrian Beltre at 3B and a rotation of Mitch Moreland, Jeff Baker and maybe Lance Berkman at 1B.
How Will History Remember Erik Bedard?
It’s extraordinary, what Erik Bedard did last Saturday night. It’s extraordinary that Bedard no-hit the scorching Seattle Mariners into the top of the seventh inning. It’s extraordinary that he managed to rack up so many strikeouts. It’s extraordinary that he was removed, and that he wound up with the loss, without having surrendered a hit. And then, more than anything, it’s extraordinary that he pitched. That he even pitched in the first place. That much is extraordinary in two ways.
Other fans don’t have the relationship with Bedard that we do. He’s pitched for a whole bunch of teams, but they haven’t gone through the same ups and downs. Other teams didn’t invest so much into an Erik Bedard acquisition. Other teams didn’t start Erik Bedard over Felix Hernandez on opening day, and other teams didn’t go through the same drawn-out Erik Bedard experience. Bedard is not remembered fondly in Seattle, and something about the Saturday performance felt uniquely appropriate — here’s a guy, talented, hitting the wall and all but removing himself despite the circumstances. Twitter was littered with jokes, and that was even before the Mariners closed out their incredible win.
Think about Bedard’s reputation these days, and think about the stories we’ve all heard. Bedard has never come off like a leader, and he’s never seemed like one to hang around the practice fields after hours. Bedard has appeared to exhibit disinterest, and not just with the media — he’s never seemed that committed to the game, or to his team, and it’s because of Bedard that I’m familiar with the expression five-and-dive. You think of Bedard and you think of a guy who’s toast after five innings or 100 pitches, whichever comes first. And, naturally, you think of the aches and pains. Bedard’s always been fragile, and he’s seemed to take his time. He’s seemed to demonstrate an unwillingness to work through much in the way of discomfort.
I’m not here to say that anyone’s wrong. Bedard is written about in a certain way for reasons. Departing coaches, in the past, have taken parting shots at Bedard, accusing him of not giving enough or caring enough. Bedard isn’t Derek Jeter, and there’s no way to twist the tale such that a comparison fits. Bedard, often, has disappointed in a variety of ways, and that colors the way that he’s covered. But, for not my first time, I feel like it’s important to acknowledge the rest of the story.
Bedard had his first taste of surgery in 2002, when he had his UCL replaced. The first taste wouldn’t be the last, as Bedard had different shoulder surgeries in 2008, 2009, and 2010. You can’t fake or exaggerate a needed surgical procedure, and Bedard cited those surgeries when explaining why he was okay with coming out of his no-hitter. To quote:
“I’ve had three shoulder surgeries, so I’m not going over 110. I’d rather pitch a couple more years than face another batter.”
Look at that quote, examine it. It’s not just Bedard trying to quit his day’s work. When he came out, he’d walked four of seven hitters. His last fastball came in under 87 miles per hour. Bedard was finished, and he knew it better than anyone. Then there’s the last bit. “I’d rather pitch a couple more years.” For a guy who’s long been accused of disinterest, Bedard seems pretty damn interested in sticking around as a major-league pitcher.
Which might explain why he’s been pitching for the Houston Astros after signing as a free agent. Bedard re-signed with Seattle in December 2010 after all his shoulder surgeries. He pitched pretty well, he got traded to Boston, and he got hurt. Then, in December, he signed as a free agent with the Pirates. 13 months later he signed a minor-league contract with the Astros. Bedard made $7 million in 2008. He made almost $8 million in 2009. Bedard didn’t need to keep pitching, but he kept getting hurt and he kept coming back, signing with teams that wouldn’t be good. Let it not be said that Erik Bedard doesn’t care about baseball.
And as for his toughness? In 2009 he pitched through a torn labrum. Though he was dropped by the Pirates in late August 2012, to that point he’d missed just one turn, with back spasms. And there’s the reality of Bedard overcoming all of those operations. Sometimes one shoulder surgery can mean the end of a pitcher’s career. Bedard had three in three seasons, and since then he’s thrown 353 innings, with 332 strikeouts. Bedard, in the past, has pitched through pain, and he’s started regularly, and he’s fought back from being hurt and virtually forgotten.
He hasn’t always pitched through pain, or fatigue, as he’s famously racked up a bunch of short outings. But how much of that is weakness, instead of intelligence? We know beyond a shadow of any doubt that Bedard is injury-prone. We know that pitchers tend to perform worse when they approach a triple-digit pitch count, such that it might be in everyone’s best interests to go to a reliever. When managers ask starting pitchers how they’re feeling, the pitchers almost always respond as if they’re good to keep pitching. Much of the time, they’re not. Injuries and ineffectiveness happen when a pitcher goes too long. Bedard’s gotten crap for seldom putting up much of a fight. He even took the ball out of his own hands in a no-hitter. Why is that weakness? Why is that not refreshing, helpful honesty? I get that there’s a balance, and you want a guy to want to keep pitching, but maybe Bedard’s just deeply aware of his own limits. That would be good for a team, not bad for it.
So Bedard doesn’t go deep enough. So he has one career complete game. He’s thrown more pitches per plate appearance than average, because he’s been so difficult to hit and because he’s never had pinpoint command. And, of course, Bedard isn’t any kind of work horse. To complain about this is to say “you should be better and more physically blessed.” Everyone in baseball could be better, and Bedard wasn’t blessed with a work horse’s body, but he was blessed with a body that could spin a hell of a curveball, sometimes, and even though that meant sometimes he’d be inefficient, Bedard could at least get outs, for five or so innings at a time.
What I personally can’t know is how much effort Bedard has put into making himself better. I don’t know if his injuries could’ve been avoided with, say, more or different conditioning. I do know you don’t just recover from three consecutive shoulder surgeries by accident overnight. I know you don’t just luck into being able to retire major-league batters, especially after all those times being knocked unconscious in a hospital. We’ll never be able to know what Erik Bedard’s career might’ve looked like had he possessed Raul Ibanez’s work ethic and leadership skills. You’re left feeling like he could’ve and should’ve been more, and you wonder if he could’ve been more durable. But the career Erik Bedard has actually had has been remarkable, and it seems like he’d like to extend it, even though he doesn’t have a need. Maybe he likes pitching away from the spotlight, in places like Seattle and Pittsburgh and Houston, but he wouldn’t be the only such player.
It’s tradition in sports to play through pain until someone pulls you off the field. Erik Bedard has done that. He’s also not done that, on purpose, but there’s a balancing point beyond which it’s stupid to play through pain, both in the short-term and the long-term. Maybe if Bedard were more conventionally “tough,” his career would already be over. With luck, attitudes will change over time, and with luck, athletes will come to better understand their own physical limits. Bedard gets his, even if we all wish his limits would’ve been higher.
The headline question is a dumb one. History will remember Erik Bedard the way it remembers everyone: too simply. Bedard will have been a talented but fragile pitcher who sadly could’ve been more than he was. The reality of Erik Bedard is the reality of everyone: it’s complicated. Erik Bedard might just be baseball’s toughest weak player.
A Tom Wilhelmsen Fly-By
I don’t know what your viewing experience is like. I could never know exactly what your viewing experience is like, because even if you tried to explain it to me in words, your words wouldn’t quite capture all the little intricacies. That’s not a slight against you — it’s just about the difficulty of capturing emotion and psychology with ordinary language. But for me and my own viewing experience, I’m still not quite trusting Tom Wilhelmsen when he’s up on the mound. Wilhelmsen is back to closing again after losing his job for a little while — and he earned the demotion — and while he hasn’t recently blown up, I think the memory of his struggles is still too fresh. My experience is biased by my expectations of the experience, and that’s just a part of perception.
But I’ve found some relief in the numbers. Sometimes the numbers can be cold and stupid and discouraging. Like, say, the Mariners’ team UZR. But sometimes the numbers can make you realize something positive you might not have otherwise realized. First, here’s Tom Wilhelmsen over 12 appearances between mid-May and mid-June:
- 12 innings
- 9 unintentional walks
- 7 strikeouts
- 57% strikes
- 80% contact
Those are the numbers of a struggling pitcher, of a pitcher who shouldn’t keep pitching high-leverage ninth innings until he figures out whatever’s wrong with his mechanics. Pitchers just don’t reliably succeed below 60% strikes. Especially pitchers like Wilhelmsen who basically have two pitches, one of which he likes to throw for a ball on purpose. Poor control basically neutralizes Wilhelmsen’s curve, and then he’s just not much of a pitcher.
Now here’s Wilhelmsen over 12 appearances since:
- 12.1 innings
- 4 unintentional walks
- 11 strikeouts
- 66% strikes
- 66% contact
A year ago, when Wilhelmsen was good, he threw 66% strikes while allowing 77% contact. Lately he’s been throwing just as many strikes while generating even more swings and misses. It’s a very small sample — with relievers, they’re all small samples — but it was also a small sample when Wilhelmsen was having problems, and here we’re talking about a span of 200 pitches. Wilhelmsen’s been better about getting his strikes, so Wilhelmsen’s been better, just. Whatever he was struggling with, he seems to have figured out, if not completely, then mostly.
We could talk about Wilhelmsen’s reduced zone rate. We could talk about his fastball command or his curveball command or his developing changeup. But none of those are the actual problems — any issues Wilhelmsen has stem from delivery and maybe confidence, and the reality is that Wilhelmsen is never going to be known for his pinpoint location. Even last year, when he was rolling, he didn’t make a habit of just drilling his spots. The quality of his stuff gives him a margin of error, and when he’s around the zone enough, he can get by. It isn’t fair to expect Wilhelmsen to be a shutdown relief ace, because he’s probably just supposed to be good, and recently he’s been good. Good closers will allow runs and blow saves, but that much can’t be avoided. What’s important is seeing improvement.
Wilhelmsen seems to be coming out of things, and that’s good timing for him with Stephen Pryor on the road back to the bigs. At any point Wilhelmsen could again reverse course because relievers are annoying in that way, but this obstacle seems to have been overcome. And, anecdotally, I think Wilhelmsen gets a considerable benefit from pitching to Mike Zunino instead of any of the other framing clowns the Mariners have employed. Evidence suggests Zunino might be a good receiver; far more compelling evidence suggests the other guys have been bad receivers, and Wilhelmsen has lost a lot of would-be strikes especially around the bottom edge of the zone. A decent receiver should help him be only better still.
Maybe it’s odd to focus on a closer in a season in which the Mariners are still several games below .500. But it’s important for Wilhelmsen to be good the rest of the way, either so the Mariners can count on him in 2014, or so the Mariners can explore the trade market. It doesn’t help that Carter Capps is an ineffective mystery, and that Pryor is still in his rehab. We don’t know what those guys are going to be in a year, so it’d be super for Wilhelmsen to not be bad anymore. Really it’d be super for all of the Mariners to not be bad. I’m pleased to see that they’re in the process of trying it.
Mariners Continue Rolling, Face Indians Next
| MARINERS (46-52) | ?Ms | INDIANS (52-46) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | 16.6 (8th) | 12.6 | 14.9 (9th) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -22.1 (26th) | -5.4 | -2.3 (17th) | Indians |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 10.4 (12th) | 4.8 | 1.4 (15th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 1.8 (15th) | -0.4 | -20.7 (29th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 6.7 (11th) | 11.7 | -6.6 (13th) | MARINERS |
The Mariners’ offense is rolling, and all without Michael Morse. Remember him? Oh well. Franklin’s grand slam yesterday was his seventh home run and that took me by surprise, that he already had seven. He’s established himself quite quickly.
The deltas above are from the past two series as I didn’t get a preview up for the Astros.
With a minimum of 250 PAs this year and a majority while playing first base, Justin Smoak’s current 126 wRC+ ranks the tenth best in the majors. Sustainable? I don’t know. He’s not going crazy with the power so I don’t view that as a risk. He’s walking a lot more but he’s also swinging at dramatically fewer pitches outside the strike zone, so that makes sense.
You can point out the elevated BABIP and that’s true, but his line drive rate and all around contact seems to be vastly improved so perhaps this is his new normal. Whatever happens, this is a welcome worry compared to before. The numbers and more, after the jump.
First Half In Review: Mariners Go Sailing
In a belated continuation of another stupid tradition, here we’ll summarize each player’s first half with a selected word(s) from the Wikipedia page for “mariner“.
Game 98, Mariners at Astros
King Felix vs. Jordan Lyles, 11:10am
Happy Felix Day. There are very, very few things better than those three simple words, and if we’re honest, a majority of them are merely modifiers of the underlying sentiment. Such it is today, as the M’s go for a sweep of Houston on this happy Felix day.
Jordan Lyles is a righty grounballer with a four- and two-seam fastball, a slider, a curve and a change. He’s had home run problems in previous years, which makes sense given his home park, but so far in 2013, he’s largely avoided the long ball. As with Bud Norris, there’s no easy explanation for this outside of the ol’ standby: luck and random variance. That said, he’s gradually shifted from using the slider as his primary breaking ball to the curve, and, at least focusing on results, that’s been a positive change for Lyles. Not only does his curve generate more whiffs/strikeouts, it has less platoon splits and he’s given up fewer homers on it. He doesn’t have the clear, obvious platoon splits that Norris had, but this is a better match-up for the new lefty-dominated M’s batting order than last night.
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Ackley, CF
9: Blanco, C
SP: King Felix
Not a huge day for pitching in the M’s minor leagues, but Chance Ruffin gets his second start in AAA for Tacoma. The Rainiers snapped a nasty losing streak last night with an 11-4 win over Fresno; Rich Poythress hit two homers to pace the offense.
Game 97, Mariners at Astros
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Erik Bedard, 4:10pm
Ah, Erik Bedard. Misunderstood? Unlucky? Guy with a flukish career year? Overly associated with Bill Bavasi? Like many of you, I actually like Bedard – I really enjoyed the brief stretches of healthy Bedard from 2009-2011, and if there weren’t enough of them, well, we can’t really hold that against him any more than we get angry at Franklin Gutierrez. He appeared to take a clear step back last year, as his ERA topped 5 and his walk rate crept back up over 4/9. This earned him a DFA from Pittsburgh, but saber-inclined fans pointed to his OK FIP and the fact he didn’t appear to have any health problems as a reason to take a flyer on him. Houston did, and they’ve been rewarded with a small uptick in velocity and new, hellish horizontal movement on his pitches. Unfortunately, his FIP’s finally regressed back to where his ERA was last year.
At his peak with Baltimore, he ran Iwakuma-like 48-49% ground-ball rates, along with great K rates. He never had Iwakuma’s command, but he missed more bats and didn’t have Iwakuma’s home run problem. Well, he’s got it now. Through the years, Bedard’s GB% has moved downward in two big jumps. It dropped precipitously upon his arrival in Seattle, then held steady at around 42% for several years. This year, it’s a Beavanish 35%. Houston’s not the park where you’d want to be a fly-ball pitcher, though, to be fair, his home park hasn’t really hurt him yet. The bigger problem has been his steadily diminishing ability to get right-handed hitters. Like Iwakuma, Bedard ran reverse splits at his peak, and his career FIP is still worse against lefties than righties. A great curve and a change will do that (or a splitter, in Iwakuma’s case). After years of dominating righties, he’s now struggling, having yielded 30 XBH to them so far in 2013 and a wOBA of .349. In 2012, his wOBA against was .342; this is a small sample, but it’s not miniscule.
The M’s obviously have a very left-handed line-up these days, but Bedard’s been worse against lefties too. In any event, this will be a great test for Brad Miller and Dustin Ackley. Miller’s coming off his best game as a big leaguer, and while it’s extremely early, I’m already starting to wonder where he’ll place on next year’s Fangraphs trade value list. Dave mentioned that he toyed with the idea of including him *this* year, which would’ve been premature, but it’s a testament to how good Miller’s looked. A lefty-hitting, gap-powered shortstop with the ability to be an above-average MLB hitter this year/next year is incredibly valuable. If he avoids the Dustin Ackley career path, he’ll be someone to build around for a decade. It’s absurd how optimistic one really good shortstop can make me.
1: Miller, woooo
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Bay, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Saunders, CF
SP: Iwakuma
Tai Walker had another good outing last night, throwing 5IP and giving up 1R, to *raise* his ERA to 0.86.
The big starters in the M’s system today are all in the low-low minors, as Tyler Pike takes the hill for Clinton of the Midwest League, and Luiz Gohara starts for Pulaski in the Appy league.
Game 96, Mariners at Astros
Joe Saunders vs. Bud Norris, 5:10pm
The Mariners begin the 2nd half (sic) of the season tonight in Houston against the woeful Astros. There’ve been a few points in the season at which fan opinion swung from typical cynicism to palpable optimism. The M’s had a hot spell to get up to about .500 in May and many fans, desperate for something to cheer about, bought in. As you know, the M’s promptly tanked and haven’t been terribly close to .500 since. This time’s slightly different, though, in that the personnel have changed and because the M’s are actually hitting. As Jeff’s mentioned, it feels different tuning in to watch the team these days, and if they’re all but eliminated, that just takes some pressure off of Miller, Zunino and Franklin. That’s great. But how different is this, really? Weren’t we here in 2011, when Dustin Ackley came up and looked like a perennial all-star at his new position? Kyle Seager shot through the minors and made his MLB debut. Justin Smoak, who’d looked lost for a few months, had come back from AAA Tacoma and looked like a different player. Their 2nd half record was marred by a bad September, but they looked almost good in August, and at least the team was getting production from guys who’d be around in a few years.
In 2012, the team fell out of the race early, but they’d made some changes and looked like a completely different team in the second half. Hisashi Iwakuma moved to the starting rotation and was brilliant in that role. Kyle Seager became a very good player at age 24. Michael Saunders…MICHAEL SAUNDERS…finally looked like he could play at the big league level. It was easy to spot some glaring problems that they wouldn’t have to deal with going forward: Miguel Olivo wouldn’t tempt Eric Wedge with his veteranness. John Jaso could get more playing time, and Chone Figgins would finally just go away. Jesus Montero held his own, and if he wasn’t much of a catcher, some improvement at DH would come in handy in the years to come. Justin Smoak, who’d looked lost for a few months, had come back from AAA Tacoma and looked like a different player. Their 2nd half record was legitimately good, and the team was getting production from guys who’d be around in a few years.
I point this out NOT to engage in needless cynicism. I blog about this team almost daily. Cynicism is essentially hard-wired, but indulging in it – wallowing in it- isn’t helpful to anyone and it’s often harmful to any attempt at analysis. The point is that optimism in the second half isn’t new, though – it’s what we do. The M’s haven’t been good enough to seriously challenge the top teams in the division, and at some point mid-year, the team realizes this and at least makes the team interesting and/or fun to watch. For the moment, I’m not terribly upset about this pattern. We never thought the M’s would contend this year anyway. What we’ve seen is that the first “franchise core” the M’s tried to build around failed them, and that cost them big time in the first half. But they’ve got another shot now with a completely different franchise core, and at least this time, the players they’re trying to build around play premium defensive positions (and actually play them, not what Jesus Montero was doing with the catcher’s gear on). So while these optimistic feelings are nothing terribly new, and while the signs of life we’ve spotted in years past haven’t been enough to get this franchise out of critical condition, they’re welcome and encouraging all the same.
I mentioned it when Bud Norris faced the M’s in June, but the Astros righty’s been a very different pitcher than he has been in the past. He’s always had an above-average K%, but he gave up too many home runs. This year, his K% is down substantially, but he’s given up far fewer HRs. Norris is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher; against righties, he’s basically at a 50:50 split. He throws a change and a sinker as well, both of them primarily to left-handed batters. While he has the pitches to succeed against lefties, his sinker and change haven’t worked at all against them, and both his four-seam fastball and slider haven’t been good enough against them that he could ditch the sinker/change entirely. Against righties, his fastballs have been excellent (even the sinker, which he hardly ever throws to them), and his slider’s functioned as a real wipeout pitch. He’s a flyballing pitcher (thanks to his rising four-seamer) in Houston, so he’s given up too many HRs to righties, but he’d been effective overall against them.
This year, lefties are still troubling him, with a .376 wOBA and a slugging percentage near .500, but he’s kept the ball in the ballpark against righties. There been no observable change, at least to a guy looking at BrooksBaseball and the two games he’s thrown against Seattle this year. He still throws righties a four-seamer and a slider, it’s just that no righties have homered on Norris’ fastball this year. None. It’s the same speed it was in 2011, he throws it in the same location (down and away from righties). To be fair to Norris, righties are hitting the ball on the ground more than they have in the past, but you’d never guess that from looking at the pitch’s movement. If the Astros coaching staff (or Mike Fast; to any saber-inclined observer, anything good the Astros do seems like it could be the product of some Mike Fast discovery) has made a tweak to Norris’ fastball, it’s a subtle one. If this is great luck, well, congratulations Bud Norris. Now knock him around the park, M’s.
The M’s don’t really need luck – they’ve got left-handers. Today’s line-up includes the best stories from the first half, like Brad Miller and Raul Ibanez – guys who can tee off on Norris’ sub-par sinker/change. The M’s have faced Norris twice – the first time, Norris was so-so, but kept the team in it and they beat a red-hot Hisashi Iwakuma in a close game. The second time, Norris was *still* so-so, but didn’t have much of a chance when Aaron Harang threw a CG shutout. Still, this is a much tougher test for a righty with platoon splits. In June, Norris saw an M’s line-up that included righties Alex Liddi, Kelly Shoppach, Brendan Ryan and Mike Morse. Those guys aren’t here tonight; instead, only Zunino will bat from the right side against Norris.
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, 2B
SP: Joe Saunders
The big news from the minors over the break was the first 9-inning no-hitter of the year for the M’s system, thanks to teenager Victor Sanchez. Sanchez’s linebacker (some might say nose-tackle) body doesn’t set scouting hearts aflutter, and his lack of strikeouts in the pitcher-friendly MWL has been something to watch, but there are plenty of positives, too. Sanchez was born in 1995, and just threw a CG no-no against a college-heavy line-up, with no walks (though he did hit a batter) and 8 Ks. The Venezuelan doesn’t have top-flight stuff, but he’s walked only 8 on the year in 60+ innings. He’s battled injuries and fitness issues, but he’s succeeding at the level, and he’s more than proven that his eye-opening debut for Everett last year (at age 17) wasn’t a fluke.
Jesus Montero (remember him?) had been playing in the AZL, but he’s back with Tacoma. Franklin Gutierrez began his 58th rehab assignment for Tacoma last night as well, and Stephen Pryor joined the team after two successful simulated games with Seattle. Fittingly, Montero tripled in his return to AAA because nothing makes any sense.
Brandon Maurer made an important start for Tacoma yesterday in Fresno. He’d been awful in recent games, and thus his merely mediocre performance was something of a step up. Still, this is starting to get concerning. He’s got a new pitching coach to talk to, as the M’s flipped the AAA and AA PCs. This allows Tai Walker to work with the same guy he started 2013 with in Jackson, and may help Chance Ruffin stay on track in his first year of starting. And, it may be time for a different set of eyes on Maurer. None of this is to put the blame for Maurer’s struggles on Dwight Bernard; the M’s made it clear this move was more about getting Terry Clark to AAA to work with guys he’d spent half a year developing. But it couldn’t hurt to see if he notices something in Maurer’s mechanics.
Taijuan Walker starts tonight – so flip over to MiLB.tv when the M’s game’s over. Anthony Vasquez starts for Jackson, trying to build on a brilliant outing a week ago.
Mike Curto asks a legitimate question when he wonders if the pitching coach swap mentioned above might make it harder for the Rainiers to attract and keep quality coaches if they know they could get moved mid-season. He also points out that Tai Walker’s numbers were better in AAA than in AA, in an admittedly small sample.
First Half In Review: Passing Out The Grades
As we wait out the remainder of the MLB All-Star Break, the Seattle Mariners sit at 43-52, 13 games out of first place but just two games behind the Angels, which would be encouraging to someone who’s been out of touch since being deployed overseas by the military in the middle of spring training. People like to think of the break as the season’s halfway point, and for the Mariners that’s exactly true as they’ll shortly resume their ordinary 190-game campaign. But before we all focus on what’s to come, we have here an opportunity to reflect on what’s already happened, and for purposes of providing a quick summary, below you’re going to find a completely subjective and arbitrary team report card, broken down player by player.
One thing you could do is go to FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference and look up how the team’s players have done, in case you don’t know and are curious. There’s no reason at all to trust these assigned letter grades, because the grades are just lousy inconsistent substitutes for the meaningful statistics themselves, but I’ve done this every year for as long as I can remember and when you have traditions you can’t just up and buck them, if I’ve learned anything from Major League Baseball. You need to do things the way you’ve always done them, and I’ve always done stupid midseason report cards, so here’s a stupid midseason report card, featuring every player who’s played on the 2013 Mariners. It’s split between position players and pitchers, and if you want to argue any of these grades, be my guest, metaphorically. Don’t be my guest, literally, because I don’t want to have you. It’s nothing against you. Well yeah it is. I don’t know why I said it isn’t. Stay away from my apartment!
Report card to follow. The methodology behind each grade can be best summarized as “sure, why not.” Seriously though please don’t argue, if you want to argue take the time instead to think about what you were going to do. To think about what you were going to argue. Why? Just, why? We’re all dying.