Game 153, Mariners at Tigers
James Paxton vs. Doug Fister, 10:08am
Early game today as the M’s look for an improbable split. James Paxton’s emergence late in the year has been a much-needed bright spot for those of us that have watched Nick Franklin grind down after a fast start, then watch as Tai Walker tantalized for a few innings before being shut down, and as Felix takes a much-needed break. I’m not saying that I’m only interested in games Paxton starts; Iwakuma’s obviously pretty fun to watch when he’s on. But Paxton gives meaning to an M’s game in a forgotten season in a way that even Iwakuma (to say nothing of Saunders) does.
Paxton’s still something of tabula rasa. Over the past 12 months or so, we’ve seen glimpses of him through pitch fx and on tv/in person, and each time, he looks slightly different. The sum total of these observations still doesn’t add up to much, and much of what we’d seen is contradictory (Paxton struggles to hit 91! Paxton touches 98!). He’s gone from being an extreme fly-ball guy to running an absurd GB/FB ratio in his two MLB starts. He’s picked up a new pitch, and all but refused to throw it in MLB so far. His movement has fluctuated a bit, and at this point, I have no idea where it’ll settle into next year. I’m just glad there’s a pitcher on this team that I’m actively interested to learn more about.
1: Ackley, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Franklin, 2B
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Paxton
The other news out of Japan this morning is that the commissioner of NPB has resigned under pressure due to the controversy around the “juiced” ball, and the way it was stealthily introduced this year.
Mariners Owner Hiroshi Yamauchi Passes Away
Sad news — regardless of what your feelings about the current state of the organization is — out of Japan this morning, as the Mariners principal owner, Hiroshi Yamauchi, has passed away at the age of 85. Yamauchi is best known for buying the Mariners in 1992, a last second deal to prevent the team from moving to Tampa, and more recently, for never having attended one of the team’s games, even last year’s season opener in Tokyo. For the 21 years that he owned the franchise (either directly or more recently through Nintendo, a transfer that was done for estate planning reasons), he held an extremely low profile, only granting a single interview in his entire ownership, which aggravated portions of the media and fan base that were used to more hands on, outwardly public ownership groups.
While popular opinion about the Mariners ownership right now is quite low, the simple fact is that Yamauchi invested a large portion of his own money into an entity he had to be convinced to purchase, and without his willingness to buy the team in 1992, there’s a decent chance that most of the last 20 years don’t happen. It’s easy to focus on the negative when the last decade has been so fruitless, but Seattle has a baseball team in large part due to Hiroshi Yamauchi.
We can save the speculation for what this means in terms of ownership transfers — long rumored, even before today’s news — or the continuing employment of the current executives for another day. Today, I’ll simply thank Mr. Yamauchi for his part in keeping the Mariners in Seattle. Rest in peace, sir.
The Blame the Kids Game Continues
Soon to be former Mariners manager Eric Wedge continued to lay groundwork yesterday for the spin he’s going to try and sell over the next 10 days. And, naturally, as with pretty much every veteran infatuated manager in charge of a losing team, he’s going to blame the failures of the team on the fact that they had so many young players. Per Ryan Divish:
“So many things have happened here when you talk about fundamentals,” Wedge said. “Whether it be the kids coming up quick a couple years ago, or last year or even this year, those are things you are going to have to live with – some of those mistakes until they figure it out. If you don’t have enough time in the minor leagues, then you have to finish them off up here.”
If it seems like this is happening every year, it’s because it has.
“We’ve got 8 or 9 players that made their major league debut this year,” Wedge said. “That’s quite a bit. And we have like 30 some in three years. When you are breaking in that many young players, you are going to have young mistakes. We’ve got 20 some players with less than years experience coming into this season. That’s a big number. So you have to be patient and work through. It’s a rebuild. It’s what it was when I got here.”
Wedge is right in the fact that the Mariners have used a lot of young players during his three years at the helm. In fact, no team has given more plate appearances to players 25 and under over the last three years. So, vindication, right? Wedge correctly noted that the team has gone young during his tenure, and at least on the position player side of things — the pitchers have skewed a bit older — the data supports his assertion. Well, at least the part about the quantity of young players and the amount of playing time they’ve gotten.
The inference is that there’s causation here. These comments are very clearly an attempted explanation for why the team has been bad while he’s been in charge. The last two sentences basically sum it up. Wedge is saying that he was hired to build a young club, and because of that job, the losses should have been expected, since those young players just weren’t experienced enough to help the team win yet.
Here’s the problem, though. The 25-and-unders have accounted for 43% of the Mariners total plate appearances during the last three years, more than anyone else in baseball, but they’ve also accounted for 66% of the total WAR by position players, also the highest proportion in the game. And yes, if you’re doing some basic subtraction from the numbers in that last sentence, that means that the 26+ players accounted for just 1/3 of the total position player WAR despite garnering almost 3/5 of the plate appearances.
Here are the team totals for both 25-and-unders and 26+, 2011 to 2013. Note where the Mariners rank in each.
First, the young inexperienced kids.
| # | Team | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld + Pos | BsR | WAR |
| 1 | Angels | 3753 | .276 | .344 | .463 | .349 | 124 | 44.8 | 28.4 | 31.8 |
| 2 | Braves | 5556 | .262 | .334 | .428 | .332 | 110 | 3.6 | 11.2 | 26.8 |
| 3 | Giants | 4224 | .278 | .341 | .433 | .335 | 116 | 45.3 | -9.9 | 26.3 |
| 4 | D’backs | 5408 | .272 | .348 | .439 | .341 | 110 | -8.2 | 18.8 | 25.9 |
| 5 | Pirates | 6400 | .261 | .327 | .411 | .323 | 105 | -19.3 | 8.9 | 23.9 |
| 6 | Nationals | 5295 | .259 | .322 | .412 | .321 | 101 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 22.0 |
| 7 | Indians | 5076 | .258 | .323 | .406 | .319 | 103 | -11.2 | 10.5 | 19.1 |
| 8 | Royals | 6606 | .271 | .319 | .405 | .315 | 95 | -17.4 | -0.9 | 17.0 |
| 9 | Padres | 4915 | .246 | .315 | .371 | .302 | 95 | -2.2 | 22.8 | 15.3 |
| 10 | Tigers | 3116 | .270 | .342 | .422 | .335 | 108 | 14.0 | -2.1 | 15.1 |
| 11 | Rays | 2056 | .248 | .326 | .419 | .326 | 109 | 27.3 | 10.9 | 13.2 |
| 12 | Mariners | 7590 | .240 | .302 | .383 | .301 | 92 | -49.5 | -0.4 | 13.1 |
| 13 | Marlins | 5611 | .251 | .323 | .415 | .322 | 101 | -50.3 | -8.7 | 12.8 |
| 14 | Cubs | 5191 | .258 | .310 | .389 | .306 | 87 | 37.8 | -3.1 | 12.7 |
| 15 | Rockies | 4492 | .273 | .321 | .437 | .328 | 92 | -1.1 | 12.9 | 11.7 |
| 16 | Orioles | 2827 | .261 | .308 | .413 | .315 | 94 | 32.1 | 3.4 | 11.4 |
| 17 | Brewers | 2513 | .267 | .315 | .416 | .320 | 99 | 25.8 | 4.3 | 11.2 |
| 18 | Rangers | 3805 | .264 | .324 | .364 | .306 | 84 | 21.7 | 26.7 | 11.1 |
| 19 | Mets | 4559 | .250 | .314 | .372 | .302 | 91 | 4.7 | -7.3 | 10.1 |
| 20 | Reds | 2686 | .249 | .316 | .431 | .322 | 100 | -6.2 | -4.0 | 7.8 |
| 21 | Athletics | 3028 | .235 | .309 | .382 | .304 | 92 | -12.6 | 3.3 | 6.5 |
| 22 | Blue Jays | 4301 | .242 | .296 | .406 | .306 | 88 | -22.4 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
| 23 | Phillies | 1930 | .265 | .318 | .422 | .321 | 101 | -20.7 | -1.0 | 4.3 |
| 24 | Dodgers | 1771 | .259 | .319 | .371 | .304 | 94 | -12.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 |
| 25 | Cardinals | 2498 | .241 | .307 | .356 | .291 | 83 | -1.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| 26 | Astros | 6440 | .256 | .309 | .373 | .300 | 87 | -85.0 | -3.3 | 2.5 |
| 27 | White Sox | 3921 | .243 | .295 | .371 | .294 | 78 | -5.9 | -5.2 | 1.9 |
| 28 | Red Sox | 1875 | .246 | .296 | .389 | .300 | 82 | -10.2 | -0.1 | 1.3 |
| 29 | Twins | 4159 | .246 | .300 | .355 | .291 | 80 | -37.7 | 8.6 | 1.1 |
| 30 | Yankees | 1019 | .251 | .304 | .360 | .293 | 79 | -18.5 | 2.3 | -0.9 |
Now, for the proven veterans who have been around the block and understand what it takes to win at this level.
| # | Team | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld + Pos | BsR | WAR |
| 1 | Red Sox | 16623 | .276 | .343 | .447 | .343 | 112 | 44.7 | -2.2 | 86.1 |
| 2 | Cardinals | 14759 | .286 | .353 | .443 | .346 | 121 | -80.9 | -11.0 | 77.0 |
| 3 | Yankees | 17086 | .259 | .333 | .432 | .334 | 107 | -7.6 | 5.6 | 73.7 |
| 4 | Rangers | 14307 | .276 | .336 | .462 | .345 | 111 | -6.4 | 0.6 | 68.7 |
| 5 | Reds | 14544 | .261 | .334 | .414 | .327 | 103 | 93.8 | 17.2 | 65.9 |
| 6 | Rays | 15847 | .247 | .323 | .401 | .318 | 104 | 30.9 | 1.0 | 65.4 |
| 7 | Brewers | 14458 | .263 | .331 | .435 | .333 | 108 | -19.1 | -1.4 | 59.9 |
| 8 | Dodgers | 15135 | .265 | .331 | .395 | .318 | 103 | 42.5 | -11.2 | 59.2 |
| 9 | Tigers | 15131 | .279 | .341 | .435 | .338 | 111 | -126.3 | -37.0 | 55.0 |
| 10 | Angels | 14234 | .262 | .321 | .408 | .318 | 103 | -2.1 | -2.8 | 53.6 |
| 11 | Athletics | 14966 | .247 | .317 | .399 | .315 | 99 | -49.1 | 3.8 | 46.1 |
| 12 | Phillies | 15064 | .258 | .324 | .406 | .319 | 99 | -24.9 | 6.4 | 45.6 |
| 13 | Diamondbacks | 11634 | .259 | .325 | .413 | .322 | 97 | 112.2 | -24.9 | 43.9 |
| 14 | Giants | 12790 | .262 | .320 | .383 | .308 | 98 | 9.1 | 18.1 | 42.2 |
| 15 | Mets | 12647 | .260 | .332 | .404 | .322 | 105 | -113.8 | 33.4 | 41.9 |
| 16 | Padres | 11949 | .251 | .321 | .384 | .310 | 99 | 5.1 | 13.0 | 40.7 |
| 17 | Orioles | 15085 | .254 | .315 | .424 | .322 | 99 | -97.2 | -4.7 | 39.2 |
| 18 | Braves | 11419 | .249 | .320 | .395 | .313 | 97 | 67.9 | -13.3 | 39.2 |
| 19 | Royals | 11432 | .265 | .322 | .396 | .314 | 94 | 33.5 | 20.8 | 37.5 |
| 20 | Nationals | 11663 | .259 | .323 | .419 | .323 | 102 | -51.2 | -1.1 | 36.8 |
| 21 | Blue Jays | 13624 | .251 | .321 | .414 | .321 | 99 | -110.0 | 21.6 | 36.2 |
| 22 | Rockies | 12688 | .273 | .340 | .433 | .336 | 97 | -69.0 | 12.2 | 32.0 |
| 23 | Cubs | 11617 | .248 | .316 | .408 | .317 | 94 | 22.6 | -20.6 | 30.5 |
| 24 | Twins | 13762 | .252 | .320 | .386 | .311 | 94 | -68.2 | -9.5 | 28.9 |
| 25 | White Sox | 13946 | .256 | .320 | .404 | .317 | 94 | -68.9 | -22.1 | 28.4 |
| 26 | Pirates | 10394 | .247 | .311 | .394 | .309 | 95 | -3.2 | -19.9 | 26.1 |
| 27 | Indians | 12937 | .249 | .322 | .392 | .315 | 100 | -171.4 | -17.8 | 24.9 |
| 28 | Astros | 10643 | .247 | .310 | .390 | .308 | 92 | -23.6 | -7.7 | 22.6 |
| 29 | Marlins | 11317 | .246 | .309 | .365 | .297 | 83 | -26.5 | 19.7 | 13.1 |
| 30 | Mariners | 10114 | .233 | .296 | .359 | .289 | 83 | -57.2 | -9.0 | 6.9 |
There’s no way to spin this; the position players the Mariners have employed over the last three years that had a modicum of experience have been almost universally terrible. No team in the league has gotten less production from players over the age of 26 during the Eric Wedge era. No team is even close.
The Mariners young players have not been as good as the organization hoped. There’s no question that being 1st in under-25 PAs and 12th in under-25 WAR is a problem, and speaks to the lack of production the team has gotten from several players that they thought were part of their core nucleus. But, there’s no way around the fact that the real problem on the 2011 to 2013 Mariners is that their veteran position players have been hilariously awful. Worst in the league awful. Getting circles run around them by the Astros awful.
I don’t blame Wedge for making these kinds of comments. He knows he’s a week and a half away from being unemployed, and these are the kinds of things that lame duck managers say at the end of frustrating seasons. However, just because he’s saying them doesn’t make them true. You’re going to see these things printed, unchallenged, and basically let stand as declarations, but the blame the kids mantra continues to be factually incorrect.
The 2011 to 2013 Mariners have been terrible primarily because their veterans have been terrible. The kids have been a disappointment, but the experienced players have been a catastrophe. Plain and simple, this team has lost a lot of games because the organization failed to put a useful crop of big league players around the kids they were trying to develop. It might be easy and convenient for Wedge to now simply use the amount of young players the team used as a reason for why the team has lost, but the facts suggest otherwise. The Mariners young players have been disappointing and below average, but the Mariners old players have been cover your eyes terrible.
And that’s why this team has been an embarrassment. And that’s why Eric Wedge is going to lose his job.
Mariners Player As A Volcano
Player
Hisashi Iwakuma
Volcano
Glacier Peak
On any sunny day, residents of Seattle are reminded of their proximity to Mount Rainier, and they’ve known from a young age of the potential hazards were it to erupt. Far fewer people are aware of their proximity to Glacier Peak, to the north. Glacier Peak is less prominent than Rainier, and less iconic, and less capable of mass destruction, but it is known to be a highly explosive volcano that is far from extinct, and as such it is borderline criminally under-monitored. While Glacier Peak might be seldom discussed, that is not a reflection of its considerable eruptive potential.
Game 152, Mariners at Tigers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Justin Verlander, 4:08pm
Sure, the M’s lost the first two games of the series, but they were closer than you/I would’ve thought given the two were started by Joe Saunders and Brandon Maurer. Now, the M’s turn to ‘Kuma, one of the unsung heroes of the club and one of the more valuable pitchers in the AL by fielding-dependent metrics, or even by xFIP. Great, right? Oh yeah – now the M’s get to face Justin Verlander.
I know, I know: this is not vintage Verlander. With his velocity dipping and his slider sliding a bit less, Verlander’s looking at 3.5-4 fWAR this year, down from the 6.8-7 of 2011-12. Still, it’s *Justin Verlander* and he’s still pretty impressive. Iwakuma’s xFIP and ERA are better, but given Verlander’s death-to-lefties arsenal (his change and curve are both plus pitches; he last allowed a wOBA to lefties above .300 in 2008), it’s not like you’d bet all your money on an M’s win here. This is even more true given the bullpen’s struggles of late. Carter Capps looks like he can’t get anyone out at the moment, Yoervis Medina has slipped in the second half, and Oliver Perez looks a bit miffed he didn’t move to a contender in July.
1: Ackley, CF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Saunders, LF
7: Franklin, 2B
8: Blanco, C
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: ‘Kuma
What are all of you looking for in the last week+ of this forgettable season? Is there anything you could see/hear that would alter your opinion on the M’s 2014 standing, or change your mind about whether to bring back Zduriencik and/or Wedge? If so, what is it? If not, have you just tuned out completely, or do you watch because Baseball! and inertia?
Loved this piece by Dave on the A’s. I for one welcome our new divisional overlords, as the A’s have an interesting combination of seeming vulnerability and superior talent and roster construction. I’ve talked from time to time about the A’s ability to extract every drop of value from their players, and the bizarre way that value aligns (Reddick sucks? OK, Donaldson’s turn. Cahill’s gone? OK, McCarthy instantly turns good. McCarthy’s gone? Fine, Bartolo Colon does whatever voodoo trick he’s doing, etc.). This article by Sam Miller focuses solely on their bullpen – the A’s have pieced together a top-shelf ‘pen with spare parts and trade throw-ins. Amazing, right? Except that the A’s have run through something like 50 similar players to find the right seven guys. It’s not like they’re clearly, demonstrably better than the Rangers (or M’s) at finding scrap-heap guys. Part of the equation seems to be that they simply don’t stop acquiring them and distilling these guys down until they have a workable unit. Need a 2B? Ok, Jemile Weeks Scott Sizemore Grant Green Eric Sogard/Alberto Callaspo. They don’t stop trying different people, because they have almost nothing tied up in any player. I’d say the stakes are lower, but they’re the team in the playoffs and the M’s are the team doing…this. It’s an odd combination of platooning, relentless churn, sequencing, and savvy deployment of resources. Some of that (especially platooning) is something the M’s can learn from. Some of it seems serendipitous, and some of it doesn’t seem like it would quite apply (the M’s aren’t simply going to DFA Dustin Ackley when he starts off slow, any more than they’d ditch Carter Capps and promote…I don’t know, Brian Moran). But, like the A’s of 2000-2001, they certainly make you think.
Game 151, Mariners at Tigers
Brandon Maurer vs. Anibal Sanchez, 4:08pm
If last night’s game felt a bit hopeless, at least the M’s were facing a guy they’d had some success against, and a guy who struggled versus lefties. Today’s game….today’s game feels like a blowout waiting to happen. Checking the Vegas lines, it looks like I’m not alone- this game’s odds look bizarre. With the Tigers getting close to wrapping up the division, neither team has a great deal of motivation, but the Tigers still have a great line-up and a great starting pitcher while the M’s have some guys who might be part of a decent team in a few years, if things break right.
Anibal Sanchez came over from Miami last year with some talent, but somewhat underwhelming results. He wasn’t bad, but a guy with an injury history and who’d worked his FIP from the mid 4s down to the mid 3s sounded like a very good #3, or possibly #4. With the Tigers, however, Sanchez has been amazing. After 28 starts and 240 innings, he’s put up an RA of 3.2, driven largely by his brilliant 2013 campaign. Instead of seeing his K% fall with the league switch, Sanchez is posting a career high in K% this year at over 26%. His HR% is extremely low, leading to a FIP of under 2.5. That in turn has pushed his Fangraphs WAR to 5.5 and counting, good for 6th in baseball, just behind Felix and well ahead of Yu Darvish.
Sanchez uses a four-seam fastball which has gained a tick or two in velocity this year – it’s now pushing 94mph on average. His other weapon is a change-up that’s in the top 10 for whiff rate and that’s been extremely tough on lefties. He throws a slider and a rare curve as well, but his fastball and change are his bread and butter pitches. Sanchez has a high 3/4 release, and coupled with the fact that his torso’s tilted towards 1b, Sanchez’s release point is essentially on a line running through the center of home plate. In addition to his change, this may help his platoon splits, as neither righties nor lefties get the advantage of an off-center release point. Indeed, his career wOBA to lefties is 3.07, while his wOBA to righties is…3.08. This isn’t BABIP-driven, either. By FIP, his splits are 3.59 and 3.57 with over 2,000 batters-faced on each side.
He’d probably be getting some Cy Young hype since he’s posted a great ERA on a winning team, but his teammate’s 19-3 with more innings pitched, so there’s not going to be much debate. Still, this season’s taken me by surprise as a middle-of-the-rotation guy’s taken a big step forward to be a quality #2 who may get to 6 WAR or so by season’s end. He hasn’t picked up a new pitch, and his pitch mix is relatively similar to prior seasons, so the only noteworthy thing that jumps out has been his fastball results. Now, results-based analysis is frowned-upon in these parts, so I certainly can’t come to any conclusions here. He’s spotting it away from lefties and righties – trying to hit the black as opposed to trying to keep the pitch low. That’s fine and all, but it’s also not different than what he did in, say, 2011. It’s possible that a combination of improved command and his extra velocity make the pitch tough to drive, but that’s speculation. He’s throwing slightly fewer pitches in the zone, and his contact% has dropped markedly. However, his contact% has dropped for all pitches, not just fastballs – it’s just that his SLG%-allowed his fallen dramatically on four-seamers, and not as dramatically on anything else.
Brandon Maurer’s SLG% has dropped some too, but as I talked about last time, that’s not saying a whole lot. On the plus side, Maurer’s facing a line-up of five righties and only four lefties (Fielder, Martinez, Kelly and Avila), but then his struggles aren’t as limited to lefties anymore. Maurer’s talented, and I think he’ll figure some things out eventually. A game like this *could* give him a ton of confidence heading into the Arizona Fall League and 2014, but this looks painful on paper. Maurer’s confidence has to be in tatters right now, and hey, here comes Miguel Cabrera.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Saunders, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Franklin, 2B
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Maurer
Tango’s “Fans Scouting Report” is going on now. This is the defensive metric that’s based on YOUR evaluations of player hands, speed, arm, etc. It’s a great idea, and it’s something you can use on Fangraphs as a check on other advanced defensive metrics, and it’s fascinating on its own year after year. Tango’s always been a good friend of the blog, so let’s make sure he’s not lacking in Mariner submissions for this year’s FSR. Go fill it out! When I looked today, M’s fans had filled out fewer FSRs than Orioles, Reds, Royals and Tigers fans, and that aggression will not stand.
Bad news out of the minor leagues, as local kid and M’s relief prospect Forrest Snow was hit with a 50-game suspension for a violation of the MLB drug policy. Not sure at this point what that violation entailed.
Game 150, Mariners at Tigers
Joe Saunders vs. Rick Porcello, 4:07pm
The M’s continue their tour through heartland playoff races by facing off against the AL Central-leading Tigers today at Comerica. Unlike the Cards, the Tigers figure to have their division locked up, though Cleveland is five games back and have an extremely favorable schedule in the season’s final two weeks. Still, the action (and fans’ attention) is focused on the wildcard race, as the Indians try to hold off the Royals and leapfrog the Rays and Rangers. The M’s get to mess around in THAT big mess when they return home; they face the Royals at Safeco beginning on the 23rd.
Rick Porcello is one of those players whom many believe could be an entirely different kind of successful pitcher if he wanted to. This started not long after he was drafted by the Tigers with the 27th pick in the 2007 MLB draft. Don’t let that draft position fool you: he was ID’d as the best high-schooler in the draft, and only sunk because everyone knew his bonus demands were sky high. Just as they did in 2006 when UNC’s Andrew Miller fell in the draft due to bonus demands, the Tigers stepped up and paid Porcello an insane $11.1 million ($3.5m for a signing bonus, and a $7m+ contract). Everyone was suitably concerned then when he finished his first minor league season with a K/9 rate in the low 5’s. He was reasonably successful in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and the grounders were great, but where was the dominance? In the know fans suggested that he had one or two breaking balls that were lights-out, but which the Tigers had barred him from throwing so he could work on commanding his sinker. We’d all find out when he hit the majors the next year, at age 20.
Again, Porcello was successful, but his K% was a Beavanesque 12%. Were the Tigers *still* barring him from using his death-slider? Since that time, his K% has inched upwards from “laughable” to “meh” but there are still occasional calls for him to stop this nonsense and just strike everyone out (the assumption still being that he could, and that his style is a conscious choice). This always reminds me of the people who swore Ichiro could’ve been a 30-35HR guy, but he selfishly/unselfishly (whichever narrative you pick, you can fit this counterfactual to it!) chose to be a slap hitter. Wade Boggs could’ve done it too! The point is not to mock those who think there are players who *could* dominate but don’t want to for some reason, the point is that we tend to be more interested in Porcello’s strikeout rate than we would, I don’t know, Joe Saunders’. So when Porcello came out in the spring striking out everyone, it got noticed; Tigers fans were stoked.
As it happened, his K% fell back to his career rate in April (“awwww”) but then spiked in May (“woooo“) and has now settled back where it was. All told, his K% is up this year – he’s cracked the 6 K/9 barrier! – but he’s essentially tied with Doug Fister in that metric. None of this is to suggest Porcello is *bad,* he’s just different than we thought he’d be coming out of high school. He’s consistently posted good FIP marks, thanks to his GB% holding down his home runs allowed. But given his sinker-heavy arsenal, he’s posted fairly high platoon splits. Over his career, his FIP is about 1 full run higher vs. lefties than righties, and this year those splits are even more extreme. He’s gone to his curve more this season, and that’s helped him at the margins with lefties (it’s better than his change/sinker), but his K% change has been driven by his success against righties.
1: Ackley, CF
2: Almonte, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Franklin, 2B
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Joe Saunders
The M’s skip presumptive Cy Young winner Max Scherzer in this four-game set, but still face Porcello/Sanchez/Verlander and Fister, which…*sigh*.
Game 149, Mariners at Cardinals
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Shelby Miller, 11:15am
Shelby Miller, the former #1 prospect for the Cards, is putting together an excellent rookie campaign; in another year, he might get some rookie of the year votes, but with Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey in the league, that’s just not going to happen. MIller uses his mid-90s fastball and big curve to rack up strikeouts, and he’ll also throw a couple of cutters and change-ups to give hitters another look. That he’s already an above-average MLB pitcher isn’t a huge shock – he was the Cards first round pick in 2009, and overpowered the lower minors in 2010 and 2011. That’s why many (including me) were surprised when he showed up in the PCL and got annihilated. Through June of 2012, Miller had given up 51 runs and 16 HRs in just 15 starts spanning just 71 innings. His velocity seemed to be down (though he was still putting up a decent K/9), and he simply wasn’t able to pitch out of trouble.
Like Rangers’ prospect Martin Perez, something clicked for him in the middle of the year, and he was able to regain the form that allowed him to destroy the AA Texas League. After dominating in a late-season call-up, he started 2013 in the Cardinals rotation, and he’s been excellent all season. His 3.6 FIP isn’t perfect, but the RA and K% (just about 25%) are good signs. His problem this year (and last, actually) has been the long ball. Miller’s fastball is thrown from a 3/4 angle and has led to a lot of elevated contact. It’s not a very high vertical movement pitch like Wacha’s, but it’s the primary reason Miller’s posting a GB% below 40%. His curve actually *does* get grounders, but for a valuable pitch, it gets a stunning lack of whiffs. I know curves aren’t always designed for swinging strikes (as they freeze hitters instead), it’s interesting that Erasmo Ramirez’s curve has a higher whiff rate…and it’s Ramirez’s third- or fourth-best pitch. Indeed, if you just looked at some plate discipline or pitch fx data, you might be surprised by Miller’s K%. His o-swing’s below league average. His curve generates contact, not strikes. He allows more contact overall than the league average. Part of the answer is that he’s always around the zone. His zone% is well above average, and he throws his curve for strikes instead of trying to get batters to chase it low and out of the zone.
Related to the HR problem is a factor that makes this a better match-up than you’d think: Miller’s always struggled against lefties. Miller’s curve actually has sizeable platoon splits, and his overall splits this year are fairly high. It’s a small sample, but it matches the pattern he showed in the minors; he had a 4.84 FIP vs. lefties in the PCL last season. The M’s line-up isn’t a bad one to face Miller, and while Guti starting ahead of a lefty bat isn’t ideal, the M’s still need to see what he’s capable of. Triunfel over Brad Miller is clearly sub-optimal, but the M’s didn’t have a choice after Brad injured his hamstring yesterday.
1: Ackley, 2B
2: Almonte, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Gutierrez, RF
6: Saunders, LF
7: Quintero, C
8: Triunfel, SS
9: Erasmo Ramirez, SP
It’s looking increasingly like Ackley’s move to CF is on life-support, if it isn’t over. Part of this may be related to Nick Franklin’s struggles offensively and defensively there, but I’m guessing the proximate cause is Abe Almonte’s emergence as a switch-hitting option in the OF. That’s cool and all, but doesn’t make the M’s off-season decisions regarding Ackley, Franklin and Saunders any easier.
In case you missed it, I wrote about the new NPB single-season HR king Wlad Balentien (and the first foreign contender for that record, Randy Bass) below.
Erasmo Ramirez has had a really odd season, with an uncharacteristic walk rate, HR troubles, and now platoon splits (none of which plagued him last year). That said, he’s been a solid option for the past month. But given Paxton’s emergence, he could probably use a solid close to his 2013 season to ensure he’s still penciled in to the rotation in 2014. Given his arm troubles, I think it’s likely he could take a big step forward next year, especially if his command returns. But with two injuries in two years, he’s got to show he can withstand the grind of an MLB season (especially given his stature). C’mon, Erasmo.
Congratulations, Wladimir
As a teenager, he knocked over 20 HRs and slugged over .500 in the tough environment of the Midwest League. Now, there were plenty of red flags there – he struck out too often, for one, and he was a so-so defender in a corner. He got to AAA Tacoma at 21, and put up a good but not great season with 18 HRs and an average just below .260. Given another shot at the league, he laid waste to PCL pitching, putting up a slashline of .300/.430 /.513. Positional flexibility or no, that got the big club’s attention and he earned his first cup of coffee. It, uh, didn’t go well (his OPS+ was, seriously, *-42,* albeit in 19 PAs). The big club couldn’t send him back to AAA, so he bounced to a few different MLB teams – getting a game or so a year, before he got a semi-legitimate shot with the Pads. Unfortunately, he stunk it up again. He had one last go-round, this time with Texas. He was 28, and while the incumbent was no all-star, he wasn’t the only 28-year old back-up. All three stunk, so the Rangers cleaned house. The M’s, however, saw some promise, and traded for one of the 28 year olds. And that’s how Pat Putnam came to Seattle, and how Randy Bass, the guy who failed to unseat either Dave Hostetler, Pat Putnam or Broderick Perkins, decided it might be time to give Japan a try.
The bearded Oklahoman became an instant success, OPSing near 1.000 in his first year, and lifting the Hanshin Tigers – the team that plays in venerable, ivy-covered Koshien Stadium and hadn’t won a title in decades at this point – to playoff contention. Kids in mid-80s Osaka could buy a “Baasu-kit” named after the slugger, including a ball, a bat, and a fake red beard. He led the team to a championship in 1985, the year he hit 54 HRs (and put up a .350/.428/.718 line), and a bit of lore even non-NPB fans know, became associated with the supposed ‘curse‘ that prevented the Tigers from winning again. After they won in ’85, a bystander who looked like each member of the roster was thrown in a river. Not finding anyone who looked like Bass, the resourceful Tigers fans threw in a statue of Colonel Sanders that stood out front of a KFC franchise. Bass was huge, but he couldn’t break the great Sadaharu Oh’s single-season record of 55 HRs.
Bass had two games to go in 1985, needing one HR to tie and two to own the record outright. Unfortunately for him, he faced the Yomiuri Giants – managed by Oh – in the last series. He was walked four times in one game, and, presumably out of boredom, reached out and poked a single on a ball several feet outside. Years later, Tuffy Rhodes in 2001 and Alex Cabrera in 2002 managed to tie the record with a few games to go, and in one of those “that’s impossible” coincidences, both also faced teams managed by Oh for the final series of the year, and both…did not get pitches to hit.
Now, another ex-Tacoma player, another guy with a similar tale of MiLB success and failed MLB stints, has finally broken through. With his 56th (and 57th!) HR, Wladimir Balentien has set a new single-season HR record for the NPB of Japan, one of the league’s most storied/hallowed records. Oh isn’t managing anymore, so that wasn’t going to be an issue. And he didn’t exactly creep up on the record – there’s still plenty of baseball to play, and Balentien’s Yakult Swallows have a few more series to see if Balentien can crack 60. This a McGwire/Sosa-style run, not Maris’ beating the Babe’s famous mark by 1 (in a longer season). Wlad’s line is positively Bondsian: .341/.464/.814.
Like with Maris, however, this one will come with asterisks attached. Before 2011, the baseball in the NPB wasn’t really standardized, and teams had their own. That changed, as NPB introduced a new, uniform baseball in 2011 (Wlad’s first year in the league). Instantly, league-wide offense collapsed – League ERA went from about 4 in 2010 to 3 in 2011. HRs dropped in 2011 and then again in 2012, so the NPB quietly introduced a new, “livelier” ball this year, and it’s worked: offense is up, and HRs are set to exceed 2011 levels handily. Balentien’s record will forever be associated with a juiced baseball.
Of course, it’s not that simple. The old, pre-standard baseballs varied markedly, and some were clearly more “juiced” than even 2013’s model. In addition, players in Oh’s era were allowed to use compressed bats, which had more pop than traditional bats, and were outlawed by the NPB in 1982 (Oh retired after the 1980 season). It’s true of every record: Babe Ruth set his mark of 60 HRs in a segregated MLB, shrinking the talent pool of pitchers he faced, and ducking some of the best pitchers in the world (eg. Smokey Joe Williams). Maris had an extra 8 games. McGwire had andro/creatine, and the other substances he’s since admitted to using. Bonds had, well, you get the idea.
All of this is to provide a bit of context to a piece of history. Former Mariner/former Rainier Wlad Balentien is the new HR king in the NPB. Wlad Balentien has walked more than he struck out. Wlad Balentien followed in the footsteps of Randy Bass, one of the great foreign ballplayers in NPB history, and is on pace to exceed even Bass’s insane triple crown year of 1986. Wlad Balentien has done this. And this. And also this. Teams are asking themselves now if Balentien could get another MLB shot (though he’s under contract with Yakult for two more seasons).* Fans in the US are sort-of following Balentien’s march to the record (none of this happened to Bass, who never got another shot in the US, and who was a complete unknown here even after his 83-87 peak). That’s interesting and all, but for once, let’s enjoy this for what it is: a completely remarkable season from an ex-M’s prospect.** Let’s enjoy the bizarre coincidence that the first big “foreign” challenge of this long-standing record and the eventual record-breaker BOTH played multiple years for Tacoma. Congratulations, Wlad, and a belated omedetoo gozaimasu to Randy Bass as well.
* I’m just going to point to this post by Tango.
** At the risk of inspiring even more anguished cries of “why do they always get better when they leave,” Jose Lopez is enjoying a fine season of his own – a season that would no doubt attract more attention if it wasn’t for Balentien’s completely insane 2013 campaign.
Game 148, Mariners at Cardinals
James Paxton vs. Michael Wacha, 4:15pm
Today’s game is another fascinating match-up between top prospects. James Paxton had brilliant stuff but underwhelming results for much of his pro career, alternating stretches of absolute dominance with bouts of wildness, velo loss and a lack of in-game durability. Michael Wacha was seen as a high floor, very low ceiling pick out of college – a safe bet to get through the minors, but with a back-of-the-rotation ceiling. Instead, Wacha laid waste to the minors, using a well-spotted 93mph fastball to get pop ups and Ks, while above-average control and command limited hits and runs allowed. Most of the time, Paxton threw harder (and from the left side, no less) and had the more visually impressive breaking ball, but, and however overrated it is, this is critical: no one could hit Michael Wacha. Thus, not long after Memphis faced Tacoma in May, Wacha moved up to St. Louis for his first start for a division-leading team in the heart of a playoff run.
When I saw him in Tacoma, he was very comfortable pitching up in the strike zone, using a good straight fastball to get whiffs and pop-ups. Thus, I was pretty surprised to see his GB% in his first few appearances with the Cards – he generated a ton of grounders. Over the past few months, that picture’s changed, and at this point Wacha’s got an average to slightly below average GB%, and it’s clearly trending down. That makes perfect sense, given his very low horizontal movement, high vertical movement fastball, which he pairs with a good change-up. He really hasn’t used anything but those two pitches, though he’s thrown a rare curve ball as well. His change has been his best pitch, with whiffs on over 40% of the swings on it, a very high GB% and no HRs allowed. Of course, it’s undoubtedly effective because of the way it interacts with his non-sinking four-seamer, which gets a decent whiff rate on its own. Lefties and righties alike have been flummoxed by his change, and his fastball’s shown some odd splits thus far. In Tacoma, he dominated righties with high heat, but righties have hit it fairly well in MLB. It’s lefties who for whatever reason aren’t seeing the ball out of his hand, at least in his first tour of the league.
James Paxton showed a similarly odd GB% in his MLB debut last week. A guy with below average GB% through the minors and a very over-the-top, rising fastball suddenly got 12 ground balls. As I mentioned afterwards, the movement on his fastball looked completely different than it did in the spring (or in the Arizona Fall League). Given the measurement issues at both Peoria and Safeco, I’m looking forward to this game to really figure out just how much Paxton’s fastball movement’s changed. Given the GB% spike in his last month in Tacoma and his GB-heavy debut, I don’t think 100% of this is pitch fx calibration. I think Paxton’s altered his FB during the year – the question is how much, and how he’s done it. The M’s don’t have a lot to look forward to this last month, but Paxton’s progress is one potential bright spot. Not only was his velocity much higher than people thought (especially those who last saw him in March, when an exhausted Paxton was averaging 90mph on the fastball), it moved differently, and he had the stamina to get through six good innings. If he can sustain that again, it goes a long way towards settling the debate about his big league role (with many having him ticketed to the bullpen), while really helping the M’s pitching depth next year – and thus, at the margins, altering the offseason plan a bit.
1: Miller, SS
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Saunders, CF
7: Zunino, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Paxton, SP