Tanaka to the Bronx
To the surprise of pretty much no one, the New York Yankees signed the biggest prize in the pitching market, Masahiro Tanaka, to a 7 year, $155 million deal. Add in the $20m posting fee, and that’s a total of $175m committed to the 25 year old righty. That’s a bit more than Dave’s guess or the Fangraphs’ community estimate, but it’s certainly in the ballpark. The AAV is quite close, it’s just that Tanaka signed for a seventh year.
Anyway, Tanaka isn’t coming to Seattle, and while we never really thought that was likely, it’s too bad. Tanaka would’ve bumped the M’s chances at a wild card considerably, although he’s still a considerable risk. Hopefully, we’ll now see a run on the remaining free agent pitchers like Ervin Santana, Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez, and we’ll get a better sense of the M’s 2014 roster.
Santana, Garza and Jimenez are all busts waiting to happen. No thanks.
Yet none of those three players has anywhere near the bust potential of Tanaka.
Garza has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the last 6 seasons…why would you say he has high bust potential?
Another fine example of the brilliant model of success created by the geniuses of Major League Baseball. Tanaka, McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran to the Yankees. Can we get a commissioner who isn’t afraid to say, “this $%^& isn’t working.” When we keep hearing over and over and over that the playoffs draw next to no interest outside of the teams playing in it, you sit back and marvel in the circus show that MLB has become. Large market teams get to do whatever they want while smaller market clubs have to scrape from the bottom of the pale. All the while the fan bases wondering why their team can’t compete on a consistent basis. Yes… I know the A’s have won their division using the “Money Ball” approach. But do you know what they haven’t done? Win a playoff series under Billy Beane. Even he said, “my model can get us to the playoffs… it just doesn’t allow us to WIN in the playoffs.”
Law of averages. When you can afford such a high profile team and have such longs seasons, the chances for season long slumps that take you out of playoff contention is rather difficult. On the other hand, you need “break out” performances from many mediocre players, many in which stay just mediocre, to have any shot.
Round of applause for another great season filled with NY, Boston, and the LA’s doing what they do. Can’t wait until next year until we do it all over again!
I think you’re absolutely right, asuray, but Tanaka’s a risk too. Garza is a risk because he’s a true talent ~ 4.00 FIP guy who is on the decline phase of his career. I think he’s got a high floor, though it wouldn’t shock me if he settled in as a 4th starter type pretty soon. As with any pitcher, his comp list at bbref includes a number of guys who were essentially done at 30-31.
Santana and Jimenez could be better, but also have a lower floor. Santana was dumped for basically nothing about one calendar year ago. Jimenez was a complete wreck a year ago too.
Tanaka doesn’t seem to have the otherworldly stuff of Yu Darvish, though his splitter looks great. But how will the fastball fare when you totally alter his schedule? Will he be averaging 88-89 for a few months? Does that matter?
Ultimately, it’s worth it for a team like NY and probably Seattle to take a chance and see, but it’d be white knuckle stuff for a while.
Forgot to mention: Tanaka’s got an opt-out clause after four years, so we can (maybe) do this all over again in the near future.
There’s no accounting for taste.
My concern with Jimenez is that if he signs a long term deal he might go into the toilet again.
Kudos to the Yankees. The risk is there, but the payoff could be large. I applaud their gamble.
I heard Andruw Jones (Tanaka’s teammate in 2013) discuss Tanaka on MLB TV recently…and was even more impressed.
Let’s not kid ourselves, most of us would have been thrilled to have Tanaka in Mariner blue. His contract is roughly the same as the one Felix received. However, this further demonstrates the incredible bargain Iwakuma has been.
I’m just as glad Z didn’t throw $175 million at Tanaka (as far as we know) – but yeah, I wish he’d chosen the Mariners.
I would love to have Tanaka on this team, but spending $175 million to make it happen isn’t worth it to me. Hopefully Garza, Jimenez, or Santana can be had at a reasonable contract and the Mariners strengthen the rotation a little.
Now lets sign Scott Baker, build a solid bullpen, and have some money left.
We need two solid arms in the rotation, then add Walker, Paxton or Rameirez for a #5. Then we need about four arms in the pen. RANDOM THOUGHT – If either Walker or Paxton start how would Erasmo look at the back end of the pen?
Round of applause for another great season filled with NY, Boston, and the LA’s doing what they do. Can’t wait until next year until we do it all over again!
Boston and New York have each won one championship the last 5 years, the same number as St. Louis, and one less than SF. LA has zero (both teams).
So, you’re saying we ought to break up the Giants?
Why no talk of Arroyo? Seems like a solid #3/4, will give you 200 innings, who should age well, and is perfect for Safeco Field. Also, I don’t believe he would cost a draft pick but I could be wrong on that …
BREAK UP THE GIANTS NOW!!
I think the reason there’s not much Arroyo talk probably has to do with his age and the sort of deal he might be looking for, but also note the following:
xFIP- for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013:
Player A: 110, 118, 107, 105
Player B: 110, 114, 107, 107
Player C: 111, 109, 126, 111
Player A is Bronson Arroyo.
Players B and C are, respectively (drum roll, please…)
Joe Saunders and Aaron Harang.
Meanwhile, Jimenez and Garza have run xFIP-‘s under 100 in three of the last four seasons, and Santana, for all his warts, has done it twice.
Not that xFIP- is everything, but, you know, there’s that 😉
The poor dude signed with the Yankees? …he’s doomed. He could have had a future…