The Splitter: The Pitch of 2014?
I came of baseball-age in the 1980s, and if you’re in the same demographic, you remember Mike Scott. Scott was the journeyman righty with the Mets and Astros who always seemed to under-perform his velocity, and then, all at once, turned into one of the best starter in the National League at age 30. He was a fastball/slider pitcher who’d posted 663 below-replacement level innings through age 29 when he went to work with Roger Craig, guru of the split-finger fastball. Scott took to the pitch, and posted about 25 bWAR over the next five years. His splitter was so good, hitters would ask the umpires to check the ball dozens of times per game. The turnaround was sudden and complete. Scott won the 1986 NL Cy Young award, and had a solid late-career run up until 1990. Scott’s splitter was so good that people semi-seriously talked about banning it, the way MLB outlawed the spitter about 50 years prior.
Scott was merely the face of the trend – as Roger Craig became a pitching coach in San Francisco, he brought the splitter to plenty of pitchers. Every journeyman hurler picked it up. As a result, the pitch is frequently called “the pitch of the 80s.” But just as it was establishing itself, people began associating the pitch with arm injuries. The problem is that so many pitchers get injured, that it’s tough to isolate the effects of any one pitch. You’ll hear from pitching coaches who swear that pitches don’t matter, and that proper mechanics can keep a pitcher healthy. And then there are others, and many teams, who tacitly or not-so-tacitly outlaw the pitch, both because they worry about elbow injuries and that it can harm a pitcher’s fastball velocity.
After the initial wave of splitter pitchers retired, the pitch got a shot in the arm from aging pitchers who extended their careers in part by utilizing the change-like splitter. Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens are the most famous examples, but we saw a somewhat similar phenomenon a few standard deviations down the talent spectrum with Jarrod Washburn. But with the retirement of Johnson/Clemens (and the attrition of Washburn), the pitch fell out of favor. The NY Times talked about it becoming passe in 2011 (which means it was probably passe in 2010 or 2009).
In 2014, the pitch appears to be back in a big way. Jason Collette’s article at fangraphs today ID’s six pitchers who have publicly talked about adding the pitch this spring training. I made a joke about Randy Wolf picking one up simply by standing next to Hisashi Iwakuma, but then Ryan Divish tweeted that he actually WAS learning a splitter. It shouldn’t be a surprise. Two of the biggest big league stories last year were Hisashi Iwakuma and his run at the ERA title and Alex Cobb, the unlikely Rays ace. Before the 2011 season, Cobb was somewhere around the 10-12th best *pitching* prospect in the Rays organization. They were deep, but still. Iwakuma signed with the M’s for a pittance after having shoulder issues in Japan. Hiroki Kuroda posted yet another excellent campaign in his age *38* season (and signed an extension with the Yankees this offseason). Jeff Samardzija, Dan Haren, Ryan Dempster and other starters featured it. And, perhaps most famously, Boston reliever Koji Uehara rode his splitter (he threw it about 50% of the time) to an historic season and an iconic World Series win. To review, Uehara struck out 101 batters and walked NINE. Two of those were intentional. He yielded 33 hits in 70+ innings. Even when batters knew what was coming, they had no choice.
Several of the most prominent splitter-mavens came from Japan. This season’s biggest free-agent signing, Masahiro Tanaka, also features a splitter. What’s kind of interesting is that many observers weren’t sure what pitch these guys would feature in MLB. Hiroki Kuroda used to be a sinker-slider pitcher. Before he was posted, Iwakuma was known as much for his slider as his split.* Even after he’d been in MLB for a bit, some tabbed the straight fastball as Uehara’s best pitch. Given that Tanaka used a slider so much in Japan, it seemed noteworthy that MLB observers were so consistent and so public in their identification of his splitter as his signature offering.
Was there a bias against the pitch league-wide? Is that why people seemed to miss that Alex Cobb was a big-league player? Why Iwakuma went to the M’s for $1.5m guaranteed? Why Koji Uehara was traded for spare parts (ok, one of whom turned into a surprising superstar like Uehara himself) and was then left off the playoff roster and sent packing after that? Do we still associate the pitch with last-gasp efforts to stick in baseball – with Dan Haren, or Dempster? Or does the perception that it ruins arms still dominate MLB front offices?
This is where data would be so helpful. OK, so, we have tons of data. This is where unambiguous, clear, *clean* data would be helpful. If you look at Fangraphs’ pitch fx numbers, you’ll find that NO qualified starting pitcher in baseball used a split more than 2% of the time back in 2009. Our old friend Jarrod Washburn led the league at 1.8% usage. Look at 2013, and there are starters using it more than 20% of the time, including Jorge de la Rosa and Iwakuma. Add relievers and the list just grows – Edward Mujica used it more than Uehara, and we all remember Brandon League and his unhittable split (until it stopped being unhittable). So split usage has exploded in the past four years, right?
Well, I’m not sure. The picture isn’t as clear using Brooks Baseball’s hand-coded pitch IDs. There, you’ll see Tim Lincecum riding his splitter to two Cy Young awards. Or Manny Parra, or Mike Pelfrey (in 2010 more than 2009, but still). Part of the reason the two sources differ is because it’s not always clear how a splitter differs from a change-up. The most common change-up of the late 80s-late 90s was the circle change, made famous by John Smiley, Frank Viola, John Franco and Tom Glavine. But Lincecum was among the first (that I heard about – not saying he was the first overall) to utilize a forkball grip for his change-up. After seeing Lincecum in AAA, I thought he was throwing a splitter. I was told it was a change-up, and that’s fine – in some sense it doesn’t matter what you call it, what matters is what the pitch *does.* Fangraphs uses the change-up label, while Brooks uses splitter. You could do this with several of the most famous splitter-users, Cobb among them. Even the Brooks Baseball data shows evidence of an increase in splitter usage, though – just not a dramatic one.
Still, whether splitter usage has grown exponentially after becoming nearly extinct as a weapon for starting pitchers, or whether it’s spread more slowly from late-career wrinkle to an increasingly-common change-up alternative, its use is on the rise. Is this because teams are less convinced it’s an injury risk? If so, why (I mean, Uehara’s spent time on the DL, and Iwakuma fell to the M’s after shoulder problems plagued his final NPB season)? Is it seen as an easier version of the change-up to master?** Was its absence (if there was one) the key to its current effectiveness? Have hurlers like Cobb, Iwakuma and Kuroda, none of whom has a big fastball, shown a route to success for guys who aren’t blessed with elite velocity and “pure stuff?”
Apparently, we’ll see. The pitch appears ready to grab plenty of MLB headlines. If Tanaka lives up to his contract, it’ll be because his splitter proves as unhittable as some scouts think it is. If the M’s hang around contention all year, a big part of that will likely be another big year from Iwakuma. If the Rays win the East, you have to think Cobb, Jake Odorizzi and Heath Bell (the latter two of whom have picked up the pitch this spring) will be factors. It’s bizarre to watch the pendulum swing on pitches – the way the cutter was clearly the pitch of the last four-five years, and the way the slider dominated baseball at times from the 60s through the Randy Johnson/Robb Nen versions of the early 2000s. If the splitter enjoys even more success in 2014, and that’s a big if, it’d be the clearest sign of a “market inefficiency” since that term became hideously overused by bloggers like me. That is, if the pitch was effective and if its arm-shredding properties were overstated, some teams grabbed an advantage either by actively targeting splitter pitchers or by passively allowing their guys to throw it. The M’s, notably, were one of those teams, as their pick-ups of League and Iwakuma indicate. This shows, perhaps, that there’s a pretty big gap between ID’ing something as an efficiency and riding that knowledge to unexpected success. But it also makes you wonder how far you could push this. Cobb/Iwakuma/Tanaka and their many copycats may help us find out in 2014.
* Full credit to pitch fx guru Mike Fast who ID’d the split as the plus pitch in Iwakuma’s arsenal from a handful of WBC pitches.
** Your humble scribe’s forgettable baseball career was centered upon his attempted mastery of the splitter. I mean, I had mirrored the first part of Mike Scott’s career simply by being a mediocre-to-worse pitcher. I was sure that a subtle tweak of that pitch was all that would stand between me and small-high-school glory. I will say that it WAS an easier pitch to control, but that it cannot turn a righty throwing 70 into any sort of useful baseball player.
Cactus League Game 16, Mariners at Angels
Scott Baker vs. CJ Wilson, 1:05
Looks like this one will be available on MLB.TV; no idea why last night’s prime-time game wasn’t, but there you go. Scott Baker’s been solid so far, and may be tightening his grip on the 5th rotation spot. Baker’s technically on a minor league contract, so the M’s will have a 40-man move to make if/when they decide to bring him north.
Two takeaways from yesterday’s doubleheader for me: 1) Brandon Maurer still needs work. That’s not a slam at the guy – he’s still 23 – and I like that he was able to hit 95 repeatedly. But looking at the pitch fx data, his release point’s all over the map. He’s got one of the least consistent release point’s I’ve seen, with his horizontal release changing by half a foot or more within an at bat. I’ve been stunned at the LACK of correlation between this sort of inconsistency and command problems, but the fact that many pitchers are able to make this work doesn’t mean it’s not an issue for Maurer. His consistency over the course of the season last year is difficult to analyze in part because he returned from his demotion with a slightly re-worked delivery. And while walks weren’t a huge problem for him in the big leagues (they certainly were in the minors), he often had command lapses within the strike zone.
2) James Paxton’s a much-improved starter, and he’s going to be critical to the M’s chances of hanging around in the AL West. Of particular note, his ground-ball rate is still off the charts high, and it’s high despite a delivery and pitch movement that seem tailor-made for fly ball contact. The fact that his GB rates were pretty good though completely normal in the minors leads me to think that he made an adjustment last season prior to his call-up, whether a physical tweak or a change in his approach. Whatever it was, it’s working.
Today’s line-up:
1: Jones, CF
2: Taylor, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Montero, DH
6: Franklin, SS
7: Ackley, LF
8: Romero, RF
9: Quintero, C
SP: Baker
No mystery on the M’s 1B job – whether Logan Morrison might get the nod, or if they’d work a complicated job share between Smoak, Morrison and Corey Hart – it’s Justin Smoak. Smoak was handed the starting job last year and put up an improved but not-good-enough season. We’ll see if taking the pressure off allows Smoak to consolidate the gains he made last year; if he doesn’t, you’d have to think the M’s will move him out.
Cactus League Games 14-15, Royals at Mariners; Mariners at D-Backs
Maurer vs. Shields, 1:05pm; Paxton vs. Corbin, 7:10pm
Split squad, plus a prime-time TV game on the docket today.
One of the best things about these split squad games is the chance to see some players we haven’t had a chance to see in the high minors. In the recent game against the Dodgers (Montero’s 2-HR game), we got a look at top-10 M’s prospect Tyler Marlette, for example. Last year, we got to see Chris Taylor or Taijuan Walker.
Today’s early game features a related-yet-distinct phenomenon. Your starting 1B is Jeffrey Zimmerman, a 19th-round draft pick last year out of Northern Illinois University. Zimmerman played three years for the Huskies, and left as a second-team all-MAC conference player – he played in 40 some-odd games for Pulaski in the Appy league last year, again hitting .300 and knocking 5 HRs. This is the most I’ve ever written about Zimmerman, and it may be one of the few times I do so. But hey, Zimmerman’s starting this contest, and he’ll stand in against James Shields.
“Who cares? Why does it matter if a 19th-rounder starts a game?” It doesn’t, of course. But that argument proves a bit too much. You can say the same thing about any of these games. In a baseball sense, Zimmerman hasn’t really existed – he’s somewhere in bbref’s minor league stats, near the ex-Ranger all-star Jeff Zimmerman and his brother, the ex-Mariner reliever Jordan Zimmerman. Today, Jeffrey A. Zimmerman exists in some not-terribly meaningful sense. May you destroy a Shields change-up the way Carlos Peguero used to do.
Line-up, gm 1:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, DH
5: Franklin, SS
6: Jones, RF
7: Avery, LF
8: Zimmerman, Hell Yeah
9: Buck, C
SP: Brandon Maurer
And the Game 2 line-up:
1: Miller, SS
2: Bloomquist, 2B
3: Romero, LF
4: Morrison, 1B
5: Montero, DH
6: Saunders, RF
7: Zunino, C
8: Chavez, CF
9: Triunfel, 3B
SP: Paxton
Cactus League Game 13, Rangers at Mariners
King Felix vs. Colby Lewis, *1:05*pm
Note the time change, as everyone but Arizona sprang forward this morning.
Sorry for the service interruption yesterday, but I decided to hang out with family in lieu of previewing the M’s day/night split-squad doubleheader. Correlation isn’t causation or anything, but perhaps the M’s felt liberated by not being subjected to so much scrutiny by a remote blogger. They annihilated the Giants 18-3, and then dispatched the Dodgers in the nightcap, 8-5. The offensive stars were just about too numerous to count, but Jesus Montero hit two (opposite field) HRs in the second game, while Brad Miller and Michael Saunders took Ryan Vogelsong deep in the early game.
Today’s game is a tune-up for Felix, who got great results in his first spring outing, but was disappointed in his own stuff – particularly his change-up. We’ll see if it looks any different today. Colby Lewis continues his comeback attempt for Texas. The righty underwent hip surgery mid-way through the 2012 and missed all of 2013 rehabbing. He pitched one game in the Cactus League, and the results weren’t pretty. Lewis explained that his stride length has changed/improved since the surgery, but that’s changed where his release point needs to be, and he’s yet to align the two. Lewis made an improbable and effective return from the Japanese leagues in 2010, armed with newfound command and a much-improved slider/cutter. Before he went down in 2012, he’d started to mix in more curveballs. We’ll see if he’s changed his repertoire or if he just fires in fastballs to try and find his mechanics (his FB velo, which wasn’t high to begin with, was dropping to 87 or so by the time he hit the DL).
The bigger story on the day concerns the M’s continued search for another right-handed bat. Bob Dutton (who replaced Ryan Divish at the TNT, and who’s been great thus far) linked to this story from Chicago that the M’s have approached the White Sox about RH left fielder Dayan Viciedo. The Cuban broke into the top league in his native country at age 15, and had a brilliant age-16 (!) season, hitting for average and power with Villa Clara. He (and his family) defected in 2008, and the White Sox won the bidding war for him later that year. He’s played in 338 big league games in his career, but he’s been roughly replacement level in that time frame, held back by poor OF defense and a very low walk rate. That said, he turns 25 tomorrow, so there’s potential for him to develop a bit. The White Sox play in a HR-friendly park, but Viciedo hasn’t noticed – he’s hit one more HR on the road, and he’s hit much better on the road than he has at home. The real story, as you peruse his splits page, concerns the platoon advantage. He’s been a good hitter versus lefties, where his power and contact skills easily make up for his lack of patience. Against righties, he’s been…bad. As a platoon bat, he makes a bit of sense, particularly if a lefty hitter went to Chicago in the deal. But while the M’s would be a solid line-up against lefties with Hart/Viciedo in the line-up, I don’t know that pitchers would appreciate having both of them in the OF at one time.
Line-up:
1: Ackley, LF
2: Bloomquist, 2b
3: Seager, 3B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, RF
6: Morrison, DH
7: Zunino, C
8: Saunders, CF
9: Miller, SS
SP: King Felix
Cactus League Game 10, Randy Wolf vs. Aging+Attrition
Randy Wolf vs. Ulnar, God of Elbows (er, Sean Marshall, actually).
So this is another spring training game. The M’s host half of the not-really Cincinnati Reds today. DJ Peterson may get to play, as he did yesterday, but c’mon – it’s another practice game. Mayckol Guaipe has been called up to add depth to the bullpen, which is perhaps the most spring training sentence I could write. So let’s talk about two other things.
First, Taijuan Walker’s shoulder reacted well to his limited, light throwing yesterday, which seems like a good thing.
Second, let’s talk about Randy Wolf for a minute, because it’s possible he makes the team and we should know about what he brings to the table, and it’s possible he doesn’t and opts out of a minor league assignment. Either way, I think I’d actually rather talk about Wolf than about how the M’s deal with Billy Hamilton. Specifically, why’d the M’s choose a recovering Wolf over a bargain price on Chris Capuano?
It’s entirely possible Capuano just wanted to play for his hometown team, and that the M’s were prepared to offer him a lot more money. Wolf and Capuano are both lefties who’ve spent their entire careers in the National League (OK, Wolf’s had all of 15 IP in the AL). Both have slower-than-average fastballs that clock in between 88-89mph, and both have similar career GB rates (Capuano’s is slightly better, as is the trendline, as he started out as a big fly-baller). Capuano’s mostly a sinker/change-up/slider guy, though he’s played around with a curve last year. Wolf is more the classic junk-baller, as he throws a four-seamer, a sinker, a slider, a cutter, a curve, and a change. Mere proximity to Hisashi Iwakuma might get him experimenting with a splitter, I don’t know.
Both of them have run better-than-expected strikeout rates despite the lack of velocity or a real weapon in their arsenal. And to the extent that they both share a weakness (besides pedestrian fastballs), it’s clearly the longball. A few less walks gives Capuano the advantage in career FIP, at 4.25 to Wolf’s 4.37, but while both have suffered multiple injuries, Wolf’s been more durable. As they both pitched so long in the NL, it’s highly unlikely that either of them would carry that surprising K rate to the AL, because both of them have feasted on pitchers. Remove pitchers, and their K% drops to 16.8% (Wolf) and 18.2% (Capuano). Cap’s got the advantage, but he largely missed out on the lower-strikeout, higher-HR steroid ERA, which Wolf had to trudge through in his early years. Both have really struggled in interleague play, meaning, when they’ve faced teams with DHs.
The bigger split is kind of interesting. Capuano’s posted huge L/R platoon splits despite throwing a change-up between 1/4 and 1/3 of his pitches. Wolf’s got a platoon split as well, but it looks more normal. He throws his change a bit more often vs. righties, but the biggest difference is that he throws his sinker to righties, while reserving the four-seamer for LHBs. All told, his SLG% allowed comes in a bit lower, and he doesn’t show a big platoon split in power. Capuano, on the other hand, gives up a lot of HRs to righties, on his way to a total OPS-allowed of over .800. The difference isn’t huge, but it’s there.
As Dave discussed recently regarding Bronson Arroyo, the two leagues aren’t equal in how they can exploit platoon advantages. The NL Central in particular has allowed pitchers (like Arroyo) to have the platoon advantage much more than any AL team would (as they can ensure the DH is opposite-handed, and AL teams have split-obsessed GMs like Billy Beane). All of this adds up to some red flags where Capuano’s concerned. HR-prone lefty moving to the AL, where his huge platoon split issue can be more directly targeted. You can argue that none of this overcomes the age/talent gap he may have on Wolf. I’m sort of agnostic on that question, but the gap in dollars and commitment (MLB deal vs. MiLB and NRI) is real too. Wolf’s older and coming off a 2nd big surgery. Capuano’s essentially always hurt, though, and Wolf threw 200IP in 2011, whereas Capuano last threw 200 back in 2006. As a LOOGY, Capuano makes a ton of sense to an AL team. To the M’s, with Furbush, Luetge, LaFromboise, Roenis Elias, etc., he’d be much less use. I’m not saying that Wolf is awesome and way better than Capuano, though I’m starting to think he’s a better bet for the M’s needs right now.
Oh yeah, a line-up:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Franklin, SS
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, RF
6: Morrison, DH
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, 2B
SP: Wolf
No Cano again, but it’s not an injury – he had a root canal. Yeesh, sorry Robby – get well soon.
John Stearns has officially stepped down from his role as 3B coach, and Rich Donnelly will continue to fill it. But Donnelly’d already been announced as the Rainiers’ manager; guess that means Tacoma’s suddenly without a manager. As long-time R’s skipper Daren Brown’s still in the org (he was to be the roving instructor on bunting and baserunning), I wouldn’t be surprised to see him step in.
The Mariners and Catcher Defense
Think back to the heady days of 2010. The M’s were wallowing through a soul-crushing season after the false-dawn that was 2009. The M’s had two youngsters manning the catcher position that year, Rob Johnson and Adam Moore. They’d moved former #1 prospect Jeff Clement to Pittsburgh the year before, getting Jack Wilson and Ian Snell in a deal that somehow everyone lost. The M’s youngsters weren’t playing to bolster the offense – they combined to hit…you know, *don’t* look it up. It’s actually worse than you remember. For a brief moment, Moore had some offensive promise, but given the trade and Clement’s poor defensive reputation, the M’s implied that Johnson/Moore had MLB-quality defense (given that neither would’ve been projected to out-hit Clement).
Even in 2009, the M’s seemed to see something in Johnson’s receiving that got him playing time in front of the established Kenji Johjima and the “can’t miss” prospect, Jeff Clement. Some pitchers complained about Kenji Johjima’s receiving, but we had no way to quantify that. What we *could* quantify told us that Rob Johnson wasn’t exactly Ivan Rodriguez. His SB/CS% was a step behind Johjima’s. His PBs/WP allowed were hide-your-eyes terrible. The less said about his batting, the better. It’s like the M’s somehow believed there was an absolutely massive, yet hitherto un-measurable trait catchers had that could both influence runs scored, and the magnitude of which *dwarfed* things like passed-balls and caught-stealing. It seemed so bizarre.
Enter Mike Fast, Max Marchi and Dan Turkenkopf (with Marchi’s hiring this year, all of them are now in the employ of big league teams). Turkenkopf’s initial 2008 study of a skill called catcher “framing” made a lot of waves, but even in sabermetric circles, it seemed far-fetched. The idea that Kenji Johjima gave up 0.6 runs *per game* with his receiving seemed completely impossible. Our own Matthew Carruth investigated this through the Johnson-vs-Johjima lens in 2010. Then Mike Fast’s definitive 2011 study came along, which was reenforced by Max Marchi’s whatever-is-beyond-definitive work later in the year. Each of these studies of framing found that certain catchers were clearly better, year after year, than others, and that the effect was huge – many multiples of the range in, say, controlling the running game or blocking pitches. So the M’s were right then? Well….
It’s early, but 2014’s definitive study of catcher framing came out this week at BP, as Dan Brooks and Harry Pavlidis (of Brooks Baseball/Pitch Info) used a new method to control for pitcher, count, and (crucially) pitch type. That they found the same size effect is no longer noteworthy. But they also included tables of the best/worst framers in total and on a rate basis for the pitch fx era (2008-2013). Of the 10 worst pitch framers of the past half-decade, HALF played for the Mariners. Five. Rob Johnson comes in at 3rd worst at -26 runs per season, saved by John Hester and the most consistently-cited “bad framer,” Ryan Doumit. Jesus Montero comes in behind Johnson, and he’s followed by Johjima. Adam Moore’s at -22.5, and John Jaso comes in 10th at -20.8.
There are any number of objections to this – none of these guys actually got a full season behind the plate. The M’s saw Jaso and Montero were poor defenders, so they moved them across the diamond or across the division. And hey, what about Miguel Olivo? He’s not on the list. It’s true – he’s not. But he checked in at -12.2 runs in his half-season in 2013, and I think you’ll all believe me if I say that the new metric doesn’t rate his pitch blocking very highly. You can lodge a meta-critique and say that the entire business of assigning such large run values to catchers is suspect, especially when it’s hard to track in actual runs allowed. This is either damning, or way overblown, so forget the numbers – you don’t have to believe that basically every catcher in the past 5 years took away more runs than Brad Miller added above replacement overall. Forget run values for asecond though: how could *everyone* the M’s trotted out between Yorvit Torrealba and Mike Zunino rank so poorly?
My point in this isn’t to blast M’s management for being behind the times, or for poor player development, or any of that. The problem pretty clearly spanned both the Zduriencik and Bavasi regimes. I’m legitimately curious as to how results like this could happen, particularly in an organization that seems to value defense overall and defense from the catcher’s spot more than most. It’s not mystifying that they were frustrated with Jaso or Montero. It’s mystifying that they grab an Olivo or, yes, a John Buck to fix the problem (John Buck ranked dead last in framing runs in MLB in 2010, and finished 3rd from the bottom last year).
So clearly, the M’s don’t put too much stock in these new-fangled metrics. That’s fine, reasonable people can disagree about what they’re showing – about the signal to noise ratio embedded in these numbers. I’d just like to know what the M’s look for in a catcher. They’ve got two ex-catchers as assistant GMs. They USED to have an ex-catcher as the player development coordinator. It’s not that they don’t believe that framing matters at all – they practice it (when I was ranting about this on twitter,* Ryan Divish noted that he’s *watched* the M’s go through framing drills). Do their internal/proprietary numbers agree with…every public sabermetric study on the subject? Or are they looking for a subtly different skill set, one that isn’t picked up by pitch fx-based studies, but that still affects counts (and runs)? If so, what is it? The M’s have trotted out the worst hitting (miss u Jaso), worst pitch-blocking, worst pitch-framing catchers in baseball, if the publicly-available data is to be trusted.
Several of you responded with theories of how this could be on twitter, and I’d like to hear any others in the comments. Is there a flaw in how they instruct their catchers? Is there some bizarre park effect? Are we fundamentally getting the allocation of blame wrong, and not even Jose Molina could frame a, say, Jason Vargas pitch? Are the M’s catchers systematically undervalued because the run values ascribed to different counts don’t work in Safeco’s run environment? None of these seem remotely satisfactory.
If everyone’s on the wrong track with this stuff, I’d love to hear about it. If there’s *another* hidden-yet-incredibly-important skill that everyone’s missing, that would be a revelation. But I have no idea what that would be. The fact that every single player** has looked so bad (except Jesus Sucre!), the fact that you look up each newly-acquired player they sign and it’s the same horror show…it almost looks like they are targeting poor pitch framers, as if shorting pitch framing was a bizarre market inefficiency.*** If the M’s wanted to punt defense and focus on offense, that would be a philosophically defensible position, but one that running John Jaso out of town at the first opportunity seems inconsistent with. The M’s care deeply about catcher defense. They just care about it differently than everyone else, and essentially opposite to the ways we can measure.
* I wanted to write this up last night, but my laptop wouldn’t cooperate, so I grabbed my phone and chunked much of this into 140-character bites. I’m glad I did, as Divish’s input was important, and it was great to hear folks’ theories. But it does mean some of you are getting kind of a repeat here. I’m still completely baffled by this, if you haven’t noticed.
** This brings us to Mike Zunino, of course. He could be the best framer the M’s have had, but then, an Ivan Rodriguez baseball card, a potted plant or an oatmeal stout could be the best framer the M’s have had. He got good marks on his defense in college, struggled slightly with blocking in the minors, and looked OK in MLB in limited duty last year. I think it’s telling, though, that the one guy who could buck this trend is the one guy unambiguously selected for his bat. It’s when they really focus on defense that they select such poor defenders.
*** As many have noted, the free agent/trade markets do not seem to price framing into player values; baseball as a whole seems not to buy in to the whole concept, which may be telling. That also means you can’t get a “bargain” by picking up someone the new metrics have unfairly slighted.
Cactus League Game 9, Mariners at Apathy
Scott Baker vs. John Danks, 12:05
Ninth game. The novelty of just hearing baseball again has worn off…well, not completely, but it’s not exactly “thrilling” or anything. Taijuan Walker is throwing today, but not in this or any other game. James Paxton pitched (in a pitch fx park!) yesterday, so we won’t have that. We won’t get any velocity numbers, actually. This…this is kind of tough.
Hey, what about Jose Abreu, the Sox big free agent pick-up out of Cuba? The guy that Dave in his FG chat today said could be one of the top 20 hitters in baseball this year? Might be cool to hear how he fares against Baker and…what? Oh, he’s not playing.
The M’s OF picture is still up in the air a bit, and we can see how Almonte, Saunders and Ackley try…what? NONE of them? Romero, Chavez, Avery, huh?
Well, there’s always the best position player on the club, the new clubhouse leader, Robinson Can….what? Bloomquist? Oh.
Sigh:
1: Chavez, CF
2: Romero, LF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Hart, DH
5: Montero, 1B
6: Miller, SS
7: Avery, RF
8: Buck, C
9: Bloomquist, 2B
SP: Baker
It’s still early March.
Cactus League Game 8, Indians at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Travis Banwart
At this point, James Paxton seems to be slotted in the M’s rotation and it would take an odd set of circumstances for him to start off in the bullpen or Tacoma. As his performance in his call-up showed, he’s blessed with extraordinary talent, but results – or rather, consistent results – have often lagged his “stuff.” Part of that’s been command problems (the projections systems, using his minor league track record, forecast a big increase in his walk rate in 2014), part of it’s been injuries, and a part seems to be that he’s susceptible to swings in velocity.
All of these factors came together when he was first drafted in 2009. He was hitting the mid-high 90s with Kentucky, and posted a 115-20 K:BB ratio in 78 1/3, but gave up 83 hits, 11 HRs and *52* runs that season too. He failed to sign with Toronto, but was barred from returning to college when Toronto mentioned that they’d had direct talks with Scott Boras and, in a preview of the Ben Wetzler situation this year, the NCAA said Paxton’s lost his amateur status. So he signed on with an indy league team, and this time his so-so results matched some so-so scouting reports (specifically, it sounded like , and that led to his draft stock falling significantly; the M’s grabbed him in the 4th round.
Last spring, his velocity dropped again – from 95 in the 2012 Arizona Fall League to 90 in Peoria the following February/March. If he’s on, Paxton can help the M’s compete for a wild card. If it takes him half a season to get his mechanics to click, or to build arm strength, then he and the M’s will suffer. As I mentioned a few days ago, he’s clearly ahead of last year’s pace – velocity wise – but how he looks throughout March is going to be a big story. Er, big for the Cactus League, anyway.
Travis Banwart is a non-roster invitee who came to Cleveland after toiling for years in the Oakland system. Banwart was a rotation cog for the Sacramento RiverCats for the past four years, but couldn’t crack the A’s solid roster. If he stays with Cleveland, he may get to spend some time in the International League and hang out in a different state capital.
Line-up:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Morrison, DH
6: Ackley, LF
7: Saunders, RF
8: Franklin, SS
9: Zunino, C
SP: Paxton
Speaking of guys who’ve put in a lot of PCL time, Mike Curto was the guest on the BP daily podcast today. The episode’s dedicated to examining the M’s chances in 2014, and after Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller chatted with Curto, there’s also an interview with Ryan Divish. Check it out here.
Cactus League Game 7, King Felix vs. Chone Figgins
Felix Hernandez vs. Brian Wilson
It’s hard, even after being without baseball for many months, to really care about spring training games. There’s really not a whole lot of point in trying to, frankly. You know about the stats, and how little predictive value they have. You know that the games are finished by (and sometimes started by) guys will never actually play for Seattle. For those of us not in Arizona, it takes something more specific to really capture the imagination or interest – the young prospect facing big-league hitters, the new shortstop prospect playing on the big club or facing a big-name pitcher.
This game has neither of those things, but it has something better. This game is Manichean. This game features good vs. evil. You can try to tell yourself that games vs. the Yankees, Red Sox or, yes, the Dodgers carry a similar tinge – the scrappy local team facing the titans who are trying to buy a pennant, etc. It feels a bit forced given how much the M’s themselves used to spend, and frankly it’s more fun to laugh at the Yankees aged roster than to get all high and mighty about spending. But this…this is pure.
1: Miller, SS
2: Seager, yay
3: Romero, LF
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Morrison, DH
6: Gillespie, RF
7: Jones, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: King Felix
Happy Felix day!
Cactus League Games 5+6: Rockies at Mariners, and Mariners at Reds
Blake Beavan vs. Brett Anderson, Erasmo Ramirez vs. Alfredo Simon, 12:05
The M’s split into two groups today to take on Colorado and Cincinnati. The benefits of this baseballing mitosis are several: they get to take a look at two candidates for the 5th starter job (at least until Iwakuma’s back) in one day, and they’re able to showcase Nick Franklin at SS while giving Brad Miller some game action as well. Logan Morrison can play 1B AND Justin Smoak can play 1B.
Courtesy of Shannon Drayer, Kyle Seager’s absence from the line-up now has an explanation: he jammed his finger sliding into 3B in the first game, and should be ready to return to the line-up soon. That’s great news for everyone but Nate Tenbrink.
Peoria Line-up:
1: Almonte, CF
2: Franklin, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, DH
6: Ackley, LF
7: Avery, RF
8: Bloomquist, 3B
9: Quintero, C
SP: Beavan
Gooodyear line-up:
1: Chavez, CF
2: Miller, SS
3: Morrison, 1B
4: Montero, DH
5: Saunders, RF
6: Romero, LF
7: Tenbrink, 3B
8: Zunino, C
9: Triunfel, 2B
SP: Ramirez
The game in Peoria will be broadcast on local radio (710am) on delay, but should be streaming live at mariners.com.
Here’s a good article on the fielding system I talked about yesterday by Jack Moore.
The UW Huskies baseball team kicked off baseball at Cheney Stadium this week with a planned four-game set against UC-Davis. They got in three games – one on Friday, and a doubleheader Saturday, before Sunday’s contest was rained out. UW won all three games.