Gmae 33, Mariners at Athletics: the Nightcap
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Drew Pomeranz, 7:05
Happy, uh, Felix Day, right? I’ve waited to mention that until AFTER the M’s won today’s first game, 6-4. The hesitation’s due to Felix’s decidedly un-Felix performance. He wasn’t terrible, but this was the first time since August of 2008 that he failed to strike anyone out. It’s Felix’s third K-free game, behind that 5-IP game against the White Sox and his terrifying 4/18/2007 game against Minnesota in which he left with an injured shoulder. We’ve seen it before, so I’m not sure why I’m always surprised by it, but Felix is incredibly streaky. Think back to the run he was on in 2012 – the run that encompassed his perfect game. Over 14 starts, he had a 1.40 ERA with a K:BB ratio near 6. He followed that with six awful starts in September: 53 hits in 35 innings and an RA around 7. He had a great stretch in the middle of last year, before another bad September. This happens to all pitchers, of course, but because Felix is so *good*, his highs are just higher than nearly anyone else’s. And his lows are easier to spot and over-analyze. His velocity didn’t appear to be concerning; it was lower than his seasonal average, but it matched his last game in Oakland a month ago, which leads me to assume the system in the coliseum’s a bit cold.
Game 2 features a scrambled rotation thanks to this quickly-arranged double header. The M’s go for the DH and series sweep behind Erasmo Ramirez, just recalled for this start. Ramirez got some work in, and had a solid start for Tacoma against a good Las Vegas club, but his 3 HRs in 11 2/3 innings show that his HR problems weren’t solved over night. He’s playing in a ball park that’ll help that problem, but Erasmo looked lost in the early part of the year. Here’s hoping he’s improved his approach, particularly with runners on – his 69% strand rate needs to come up if he’s going to stick in the rotation.
Speaking of strand rate, the A’s starter, Drew Pomeranz, wins the Chris Young award for April. The righty, and former #5 overall draft pick in 2010, put up a 4.72 FIP in relief for Oakland but a sparkly 1.98 ERA. How does a guy with control problems (lifetime BB/9 of 4.55) AND HR problems (lifetime HR/9 of 1.20) put up a nice ERA, even over a miniscule sample? A strand rate of 98.6% is a good place to start. The big lefty is essentially a two pitch pitcher with a 92mph rising FB and a big curve ball. He gets a lot of vertical movement on the FB which, together with the phrase “Ex-Colorade Rockie,” explains the HR rate. The curve’s been an effective pitch for him overall, but his lack of a change-up or cutter means he’s been hurt by right-handed bats. He’s seen over 3X as many righties as lefties in his career, and that percentage stands to increase unless he can bring his .222/.378 career wOBA splits down a bit. Sure, you need to regress that, but unless the RHB number comes down (as opposed to the lefty wOBA increasing as their .217 BABIP rises), he’ll continue to be a replacement-level pitcher.
And there’s some evidence that the A’s are already changing him. For one, his FB’s suddenly getting more ground balls. I’d chalk that up to noise if it wasn’t for the fact that I *just* mentioned the same thing regarding Scott Kazmir, and while I didn’t mention it, I *could’ve* about Jesse Chavez too. Not sure what’s going on there, but with the A’s, the default assumption is that it’s intentional.
1: Saunders, CF
2: Romero, RF
3: Cano, DH
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Gillespie, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Bloomquist, 2B
8: Buck, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Ramirez
Given Pomeranz’s splits, this line-up is pretty sub-optimal. I completely understand if the M’s don’t think Hart’s up to playing twice in one day, but Hart’s the perfect match-up here.
Trevor Miller, Chance Ruffin and Jose Flores in the minors tonight.
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24 Responses to “Gmae 33, Mariners at Athletics: the Nightcap”
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Another error by Miller, produces a run for the A’s. Damn.
“Game 33”
But you did witness a rarity – a runner scoring from first base on a single.
Another classical M’s vs A’s defensive duel. Like in game 32, anticipating the M bats fire up late in the game. A defensive miscue by the A’s could help.
Why pitch down the middle to Cespedes? Or was that a mistake?
Eram imploding. Time for the hook.
Now there’s something you don’t see every day, a runner hit by a batted ball.
It’s not just the errors with Miller – it’s the “almost had it plays” that good Shortstops make frequently. He definitely isn’t a glove man. That bat is going to have to be really good to make up for his defense. Hopefully his defense gets better, but he has come to the big leagues precisely as advertised except for when it’s worse than feared.
Time for the hook? He’s going back down after this game and will probably be asked to go 7+, regardless … Or 110 pitches, whichever comes first.
No further damage ensued and Eras righted himself. But if Eras had loaded the bases or the score goes to 3-0 or 4-0 or 5-0, you still leave him in? In the 4th, 5th or 6th inning? At what time do you pull him or write the game off as a loss, knowing seven games ahead without a day off? Just curious what the book says about that scenario.
Marc-
I’m curious if that’s the first time a Felix start didn’t have its own game thread? If so, it’s ALL YOUR FAULT that Felix didn’t strike someone out for the first time since 2008! You jinxed him. He probably couldn’t concentrate after checking before the game and not finding one… (kidding– but pretty remarkable stat)…
Alright, reverse the substitutions of the first game … And hopefully generate some runs.
Have we caught ANY runners stealing this year? It seems like we usually don’t even throw..
Bartender…earn your money here.
Groundballs for a nice escape. Time to score three in two.
Well, it was still a darn good road trip.
Always sucks to lose the most recent game, but 3 out of 4 against the A’s is awesome!
Happy to see Marc mention Felix’s streakiness. When he’s good, he’s fantastic, when he’s not good, he’s average. He actually has a fair number of games like today’s game.
Not a knock on Felix, just the way he is. He’s top 5 in the league where it doesn’t make too much difference who you might make #1.
It’s hard to beat Felix’s durability or devotion to Seattle, though.
Um…Felix is sick.
We had a big comeback win in the organization tonight though…
Clinton was down 17-1 after 5 innings, then scored the last 19 runs of the game to win in 12 innings 20-17. Scored 5 in the 8th, and 5 in the 9th to send it to extra innings…
Folks who left after the 5th missed a helluva game…
The guy who got the save in the bottom of the 12th for the Lumberkings is actually an infielder– Lonnie Kaupilla.
Roaming around rival city blogs, the description of choice for Seattle continues to be the “lowly Mariners”.
I wonder when it’s going to stop being either a complete surprise or seem shameful, to be beat by the M’s…
That, as well, would be a remarkable turnaround.
It will stop when the M’s make the playoffs and finish above .500 consistently for a decade or so.
http://espn.go.com/minor-league-baseball/story/_/id/10900007/seattle-mariners-class-affiliate-finishes-16-run-comeback