The Mariners And Jason Hammel
Lately, a couple things have been plainly obvious. One, the Mariners are still very much alive in the playoff race. Two, the Mariners could badly use some help. With that in mind, a note of interest, from Gordon Wittenmyer:
Sources say the Cubs already have had trade talks with multiple teams regarding Samardzija and right-hander Jason Hammel. The Braves, Mariners and Blue Jays are among the most interested, with one source suggesting offers already have been made by at least two teams.
And one major-league source said he expects Hammel to end up in Seattle.
At first look, Hammel is a curious target. He’s a career .115 hitter, with only one home run, and he hasn’t played the outfield or infield professionally. Back in high school, he almost opted to play soccer, so it’s not like he has a track record anywhere of being a successful position player. But at 6’6, 225, he definitely has the frame of a guy who can swing with real leverage, so maybe this would be a scouting move.
Yeah, so, Jason Hammel isn’t a hitter. The Mariners have been most hard up for hitters. Hammel’s a starting pitcher, and the Mariners have been okay in that department. The natural initial response is, “THIS ISN’T ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM, MORONS.” But, it would address the problem of the Mariners not having enough talent. And also, turns out teams aren’t limited to making only one move. The market, right now, has pitching available. Not so much hitting. With the second wild card, there aren’t many teams behaving like they’re out of the race. Those who are out of the race aren’t dealing with a surplus of bats. You can only acquire that which is made acquirable.
Some things about Hammel: he’s 31. Right-handed. One-year contract, modest salary. Went to high school in Port Orchard! But he’s five years younger than Willie Ballgame. He’s had a pretty good year to date. Some rankings:
ERA-: 16th out of 99 qualified starters
FIP-: 20th
xFIP-: 37th
Hammel, this year, has been good. Hammel, last year, was bad. Hammel, the year before, was good. The rest of the way, Jason Hammel should be either good or bad, or okay.
Something I didn’t know is the Mariners actually drafted Hammel in 2000. He didn’t sign, but the players who did sign went on to accomplish fuck-all. All the players the Mariners drafted that year have combined to post 8.7 major-league WAR. Of that, Jason Hammel is individually responsible for 8.7 major-league WAR. In the 34th round, the Mariners drafted a right-handed high-school pitcher named Chris Way. In the 35th round, the Mariners drafted a different right-handed high-school pitcher named Chris Way. On that basis it seems evident the baseball draft needn’t continue beyond the 33rd round.
The idea behind adding a pitcher would be this: simply, you can never have enough starting pitching. Really, I kind of embrace the idea, because the Mariners could act like they’re comfortable if they wanted to. Felix and Iwakuma, obviously, are good. Elias has been a surprise and Young has maintained a low ERA, and Walker is close while Paxton is back to throwing. The Mariners could try to justify standing pat, but, think about it. Right now they’re starting Erasmo Ramirez, and they don’t want to be doing that. Elias, professionally, hasn’t exceeded 148 innings, and Young’s ERA is at least to some extent a mirage. Walker’s been close before, and he has yet to appear this season. Paxton recently had a setback in his shoulder. If you don’t think there’s room for a starting pitcher, you are the most positive-thinking person in the world, and the most positive-thinking person in the world wouldn’t root for the Mariners, so you don’t exist. Obviously, Hammel could fit. He’d presumably help. In the best-case scenario of having too many good starters, the Mariners could nervously wring their hands all the way into October.
But what would an addition like Hammel cost? Remember, one-year contract, with an inconsistent track record. Helpfully, the Cubs have done this before. A year ago, the Cubs exchanged Scott Feldman for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and some international spending money. The year before, the Cubs exchanged Paul Maholm for Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino. In both instances, the pitchers were accompanied by role players, but this conveys the idea. Arrieta was a talented project. Vizcaino was a talented project. The Cubs targeted former good pitching prospects who’d lost some of their sheen. What would that look like, here? Erasmo Ramirez? Brandon Maurer? Danny Hultzen? Maybe the Cubs would look for something else, but Hammel would cost something of possible long-term value. When you sell a guy like Jason Hammel, you can get something you actually want, beyond salary relief.
Perhaps the bigger question is this: should the Mariners even be in the market for upgrades? Should the Mariners even think about giving up long-term value for shorter-term value? They have about a 4-5% chance of winning the division. They’re within a couple games of the wild card, but even the Astros are only 5.5 back. The wild card plays a one-game playoff, meaning it could be one and done. No matter how you play with the numbers, the Mariners are more likely to miss the playoffs than they are to make them. How much do you give up to improve that kind of team, given that realistic improvements can’t adjust the odds all that significantly?
It’s not the kind of question that’s easy to answer with numbers. On the one hand, the Mariners aren’t very good. On the other hand, you don’t have to be very good to win the wild card, and the Mariners are in that sweet spot, or thereabouts, on the win curve, where additional wins have tremendous value. So there are different ways to argue this. Based purely on feel, the Mariners shouldn’t sell out to make a major splash, like David Price or Jeff Samardzija. But with more minor parts, right now I’m okay with the idea of losing potential future help. I could probably rationalize a Jason Hammel trade package. I’d have more difficulty rationalizing a Jon Lester or James Shields trade package. Assuming, of course, the returns would be wildly different.
In theory, things could pick up soon — the Cubs moved Feldman last year on July 2. It’s exciting to have the Mariners relevant, and it’s exciting to be able to think about midseason upgrades. It’s also positively terrifying, but it’s a new and unfamiliar kind of terror, and, whatever gets your heart racing, right? If the Mariners wanted to make this easy on themselves, they could extend this current losing streak. So, that’s one option. It’s not the best option for the long-term, maybe.
Mariners, Felix Achieve Inevitable Destiny
Wins and losses, obviously, are bad metrics for individual pitchers, but they do manage to capture something. It’s not like they’re completely independent of the signal. If you allow six runs, you probably deserve to lose. If you allow four or five, in this day and age, the same might apply. But as the runs allowed are reduced, losses remain possible, but they’re a hell of a lot more difficult to justify. A guy gave up a two-run homer? And that’s it? Shouldn’t have done that, but a loss seems harsh. One run? That’s severe. One run isn’t on the pitcher. One run is on the non-pitchers. Felix, in his career, has been saddled with a number of harsh losses, to say nothing of the no-decisions. But here’s how he lost tonight:
Top of 9th
- out
- groundball single
- runner steals on bad throw
- walk, runner moves to 3rd as ball gets away from catcher
- [relieved by Fernando Rodney]
- run-scoring fielder’s choice
It’s impossible to get a loss allowing zero runs. As you approach the most extreme possible loss, you get to the loss being extremely unjustifiable. Above is the run that lost the game, in the final inning, and it scored after Felix had been removed. Finally, Felix Hernandez has been given a loss in a game in which he personally allowed no runs. It feels like we’ve been building to this. All along, this has been the inevitability, and in this specific regard, this might be the floor. I guess technically the floor would be Felix losing after leaving a runner on first in the ninth with two outs. Any maybe the runner reaches on a dropped third strike, or an error? I don’t know exactly how these things work. It would be possible for Felix to get stuck with a worse loss, but this is arguably the worst yet. It’s arguably the most nuts. Because this happened on a Friday night, it’s kind of hidden, but this was classic Mariners in that they achieved a new level of misery. They’ve always been creative.
But, you just have to tip your cap to a guy like Nick Tepesch. Today I learned how his name is pronounced.
I’m not going to pretend like this was Felix at his best. This was just Felix being really outstandingly good. I’m also not going to pretend like I deeply care about pitcher wins and losses, but I do deeply care about Felix and when things don’t go his way, things generally also don’t go the Mariners’ way, and those wins are important. This makes 37 times Felix has started a game, allowed no more than one run, and not gotten a win. In that stat he’s the leader among active pitchers. Felix is 28.
It’s interesting — three times this year, the Mariners have scored double-digit runs. All three of those games were Felix starts. This year he hasn’t been totally lacking in support, but it takes a while to forget the past, and tonight felt more familiar and tragic. Tonight, and Felix’s last start, reset the meter. We’re back to operating under the assumption that Felix can’t get support. Maybe it’s him. Maybe that’s bad for his WAR.
Stepping back a little, do you know where the Mariners’ offense stands now after tonight? As a unit, they have an 83 wRC+, where 100 is average and 99 is worse than average. In baseball history, teams with offenses that bad have averaged 66 wins. At times this team has felt like magic, and that’s in large part because it’s been featuring a 66-win offense. Not a 66-WAR offense. The offense of a 66-win team. That’s a 66-win offense plus Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma and Roenis Elias and so on, but even $240 million hasn’t made this group acceptable. Last year’s offense was 8% worse than average. That’s the best the Mariners have been since 2007. All it took was a complete and utter sacrifice of fielding. Kind of like 2007.
In one way, the Mariners and Felix did something they’d never before done. In a more general way, they did something they’ve become known for. Submit this game to memory. I mean, I know it’s already in there, blended with all the others, but make a note of this game. Record the re-airing of this game and keep it on your DVR into the winter. When it’s cold and raining and you’re stuck inside and you’re missing having baseball on the TV, watch this, from the start, and get to the end. This is what the baseball experience is like. And sometimes you have the balls to miss this? I know, you’re right, baseball is about the journey and not the individual daily battles, but I’m not going to bed tonight thankful that I got to watch my favorite pros, thankful that I got to participate in the nationwide dialogue. I’m going to bed tonight thinking about the embarrassment of having and playing Endy Chavez. The Mariners can make the regular season a thing to endure. In no January will I ever wish that I could watch this game.
We always want for baseball to be Type 1 fun. We’re often left in the position of having to claim it’s been Type 2 fun. I’m increasingly of the belief it’s commonly Type 3 fun, and we just don’t recognize it as such because it can make us forget what fun is. Fun is what watching Felix is supposed to be. Fun is what watching Felix is, some of the time. The rest of the time, the game sucks and it never starts to not suck upon reflection. Just because you can joke about something doesn’t mean it’s fun in retrospect. It means you can be creative with jokes. Having survived something doesn’t automatically classify that something as enjoyable.
The good news is the Mariners still have more wins than losses. The good news is Felix knows how to deal with these things by now. The good news is we’re sufficiently privileged to be in a position of being able to be pissed off at a baseball team. The good news is tomorrow the Mariners face Joe Saunders, and the next Felix Day isn’t all that far off. But sometimes good news ends up not-so-good news. Sometimes, the news is delivered by the Mariners.
Statcast Analyzes Recent Mariners History
Say hello to Statcast. It’s already amazing, and it’s not even released yet. They’re still working out a lot of bugs and whatnot, and if we’re ever granted much access, it’ll be months or years down the road. But every so often, they have been releasing teaser example videos of play analysis. And, as it turns out, this has been in the works for a while, and the Mariners have had several somewhat recent plays captured. I’m just here to pass those on to you.
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Justin Smoak vs. An Old Sofa
Recently I’ve been spending time sitting on my old sofa, and I’ve thought about how an old sofa is kind of like Justin Smoak. I know now isn’t the perfect time to pick on Smoak, since he can’t unknowingly defend himself, but on the other hand his being on the DL also means he can’t make me look stupid for at least another couple weeks. Always look out for number one. A compare/contrast follows.
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How Justin Smoak is like an old sofa
(1) Justin Smoak isn’t perfect, or good, or desirable in almost any way, but he’s forever just shy of reaching the action threshold, at which you actually take steps to identify and obtain a replacement.
(2) We have a certain number of fond memories involving Justin Smoak.
(3) Justin Smoak was exciting when first acquired and installed.
(4) Justin Smoak fits in most elevators.
(5) Justin Smoak has been steadily, unmistakeably depreciating.
(6) Justin Smoak gets sat on, figuratively.
(7) Over time, Justin Smoak’s physical changes have been subtle.
(8) In a pinch, you can wipe your hands on Justin Smoak.
(9) Justin Smoak has a skeletal frame and a soft, thin outer later that protects and contains the more loose and vulnerable inner bits.
(10) Justin Smoak can catch a baseball thrown right at him.
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How Justin Smoak is not like an old sofa
(1) Justin Smoak has two legs.*
* – some old sofas might have two legs
(2) Justin Smoak cannot be legally sold on the Internet.
(3) Some people continue to believe Justin Smoak will get better over time.
(4) An old sofa puts butts in seats.
(5) An old sofa gets sat on, literally.
(6) Justin Smoak doesn’t smell of farts and stale hard pretzels(?).
(7) Justin Smoak doesn’t/shouldn’t get vacuumed.
(8) Justin Smoak has a driver’s license.
(9) Justin Smoak is of at least occasional use on two different sides.
(10) Justin Smoak has a career WAR below 0.
Game 67, Rangers at Mariners
Felix Hernandez vs. Nick Tepesch, 7:10 pm
Happy Felix Day.
Today’s test of how closely I’ve been paying attention informs me that Nick Tepesch threw nearly a hundred innings last year, whereas I only know him from the most recent start against us. Unlike Whitley yesterday, I can actually find info on Tepesch in my BA Prospect Handbook from a few years back. To add to the general knowledge of him, he wanted seven figures as a HS draft pick and was expected to turn himself into a first-round pick at Missouri, which he plainly didn’t. Such things happen. Like with Kevin Cron, who wouldn’t sign with us in the third round and then drifted to the 14th round out of college, the same round Tepesch was selected in years prior. Suckersssssss.
Tepesch’s profile seems to have switched around a bit since last season. He’s lost about a mile and a half off of all of his pitches and has gone from a pitcher with an above-average groundball rate to one who gets a lot of infield pop ups. He’s also walked more, struck out fewer, and hasn’t been good generally, so don’t think that lost velocity means increased command. It doesn’t! He got knocked around by Cleveland last time out and by the Nationals the time before, but I think that the Mariners have too often felt like a team you could bounce back against. Maybe even turn it into a little three-game win streak.
Last night’s game was frustrating as the Mariners collectively had Justin Smoak-power. I kept listening all through because it seemed like something was going to happen and Rizzs even had me convinced on the Cano non-homer. When you give up contact that hard, it feels more likely that something’s going to happen.
It got me thinking about margins of victory and loss and how I’ve been a skosh more invested in (and considerably more optimistic about) the team this season, what with more of the rotation being actually watchable. Here’s what I’ve got for you on number crunching coming into today:
Win, 4 or More Runs: 13 (opening series had three of those)
Win, 3 Runs: 3
Win, 2 Runs: 12
Win, 1 Run: 6
Loss, 1 Run: 9
Loss, 2 Runs: 9
Loss, 3 Runs: 7
Loss, 4 or More Runs: 7
It took until April 25th for us to win a one-run game and prior to that it had only been 4+ or two as margins of victory. Fun.
The data corroborate with my original feelings/sentiments. If you take a non-save situation as the baseline for a blow out, then we’ve blown out teams almost twice as often as opponents have done it to us. Even without the first Angels series, our advantage is pretty solid there. Where we really have gotten in trouble in our losses are the one- and two-run games which we’re still effectively “in.” Given that information, I don’t feel like it’s all that surprising that the Mariners are being considered buyers right now, but in the overall reckoning I tend to agree with Matthew and Jeff. What, in the way of external options, would be worth it for what we would have to give up? It looks as if we could pick up a lot of wins merely with incremental improvements. We just need to have a back-up ready once the Chris Young fairy dust wears off.
Here’s some cool unrelated stuff on Alex Jackson negotiations.
CF James Jones
3B Kyle Seager
2B Robinson Cano
1B Logan Morrison
DH Stefen Romero
LF Dustin Ackley
C Mike Zunino
SS Brad Miller
RF Cole Gillespie
Welcome Logan Morrison, to the “somebody has to bat cleanup” parade.
Game 66, Yankees at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Chase Whitley, 7:10 pm
So a couple nights ago, Marc hits me up on e-mail noting that I put up a Saturday game thread and, “since no good deed goes unpunished,” a phrase Marc repeated to me which my grandfather was also fond of, I’ll be taking over for the next three weeks.
Particularly in their pitching staff, the Yankees are featuring a lot of players I can’t remember hearing of prior to this series. Yankees fans likely don’t know who Whitley is either on account of him never having been much of a prospect. He was a two-way player at Troy and intrigued late thanks to his pitching development. What’s changed in his roughly four years in the minors is that his fastball has gained a little life, now averaging around 91, and he’s ditched his below-average curve in favor of a slider that has been a good pitch for him so far. The change, on the other hand, has not performed up to expectations and his splits give a decided advantage to left-handed hitters. Incidentally, we are running out another lineup that has seven of those. Today’s variation on the theme: Stefen Romero at DH, batting fifth.
RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
2B Robinson Cano
3B Kyle Seager
DH Stefen Romeri
LF Dustin Ackley
1B Logan Morrison
C Mike Zunino
SS Brad Miller
Unless you’ve spent the morning under a hole in the ground (that’s right), you probably heard that Jesus Montero has been called up as a spare 1B/DH with Michael Saunders heading back to the DL. If you want a positive take on that, I suppose that you could go with this:
Jesus Montero says he's learned to value the opportunity to play in Majors and wants to do what it takes to stay in big leagues now.
— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) June 12, 2014
Sounds lovely, does it not? And if you want more positive news, I could tell you that just last night, Montero walked three times, none of them intentional. It’s good to try to be wholly positive now and then. Now I’m going to be less positive.
Here’s some splits for you from Montero’s Tacoma tenure:
April (87 PA): .288/.322/.613, .390 wOBA, 23% Ks, 4.6% BBs
May (133 PA): .252/.353/.351, .314 wOBA, 18.8% Ks, 13.5% BBs
June (35 PA): .290/.371/.419, .340 wOBA, 17.1% Ks, 11.4% BBs
The defensive reports are roughly the same, “runs and defends well for a golem or a prize-winning pumpkin but it’s not so great when you consider that it’s coming from an alive dude.” Thus, you have a lot riding on Montero’s ability to have success with the bat. When I look at those splits, I consider the case of our old friend and former Double Play Twin Jose Lopez. Lopie was always rather aggressive at the plate and could be because he was good at putting the bat on the ball, but when you sat and tried to get him to take a walk, the power would start to disappear. Those were two thoughts that Lopie didn’t seem to be able to hold in his head at the same time as he was holding a bat.
Could Montero? To be honest, I never expected to see him as a Mariner again. I thought he was toast. Now we have him out there as perhaps our DH when we face left-handers. I see the decrease in strikeouts over the past few months and I feel something resembling hope. Maybe he redeems himself by solving the mysteries of the bendy pitch and we ride that heaving train into the playoffs. I don’t know anyone that seems to rationally think he will though.
It raises some questions about how exactly this team has managed so far. As much as we point to the Rangers falling apart and effectively becoming the Round Rock Express, the Mariners haven’t fared exceptionally better. We’ve been running out #6 and #7 starters for much of the season, our non-Cano offseason bat acquisitions of Corey Hart and Logan Morrison have provided negligible contributions, Guti wasn’t even a factor for more than ten minutes of spring training, and the injury/ineptitude of Smoak have had us starting Willie Bloomquist at first. I personally have been more excited to see Cole Gillespie bat than Dustin Ackley. Eat it, 2011 Jay.
So we continue to sit around and await the possible arrival of Ji-man Choi, who will definitely save us all. Go ‘Ners.
2014 Everett Aquasox Preview
I know I say this every years and mean it whole-heartedly every year, but writing an opening day roster preview for the ‘Sox at this stage is an exercise of limited utility. A lot of players haven’t signed, a lot of players will be eased into pro ball and appear later, some guys will only be here to get warmed up and then be off to California (the state) or Iowa. The team that opens the year will bear some resemblance to the team that ends it in that some players will stick around and do baseball until there is no more baseball to do. For now.
Acknowledging what the situation is, the only grade I can conscionably give the Aquasox is “incomplete.” No, that’s a bit lazy. I like the outfield and there are a few players in this group who have some of the best raw power in the system so long as you don’t ask about their contact skills. The group they have catching at the moment is interesting if not good. The infield isn’t going to be great, yet, but the pitching should hold up so long as they don’t walk everyone. One of the players on this roster may be the second coming of Leury Bonilla.
I’ve heard word this morning that Austin Cousino signed, but no, I don’t know yet if he’s going to be on this roster or if they’ll play him higher. Where the draft picks are assigned to play is often a mystery until it isn’t.
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Game 65, Yankees at Mariners
Chris Young vs. Masahiro Tanaka, 7:10pm
After a tough loss, the M’s now face the league’s best rookie (if that’s the right word for someone with so much experience), Masahiro Tanaka. It seems like we’ve been talking about his move to MLB for years (because we have), and the story dominated the off-season. Despite the hype, the incredible NPB stats, and the nine-figure contract, there was still some question about Tanaka’s upside. Everyone loved his splitter, and as it turns out, they were right to. But scouts seemed to agree that his raw stuff and velo weren’t at Yu Darvish’s level, and that it was possible that he’d settle in as a solid #3 starter, which has a lot of value, but not if you pay over $100m for one.
As it’s turned out, Tanaka looks quite a bit like the M’s own Hisashi Iwakuma – he’s using a four- and two-seam fastball, a slider to righties, and of course his splitter. Tanaka’s got a few wrinkles, like a cutter, but fundamentally, they have a very similar repertoire. Like Iwakuma, Tanaka’s been excellent, pretty much from day one, striking out lots of hitters, limiting walks, but giving up a fair number of HRs, especially on fastballs. So far, he’s even showing Iwakuma’s slight reverse splits, as righties have hit a few more HRs off of him, though it goes without saying that the sample’s tiny. Essentially, the Tanaka optimists are feeling pretty good right now, and those that saw him as a league-average pitcher don’t tend to bring that up so much. Tanaka looks like he’s well on his way to a ROY award, and the only question is whether he can continue to be a Cy Young front runner, or if Felix Hernandez completes his transformation into a sentient energy cloud, firing unhittable laser-change-ups at helpless mortals.
This is a tough test for anyone, but last night’s game illustrated some of the M’s injury-driven flaws. They just don’t have a healthy bench right now with Smoak ailing. Using John Buck as a pinch hitter wasn’t the worst thing given the context, but the context shows that the M’s are going to struggle to mount a rally if they’re behind late. So look fastball and get ahead of Tanaka early.
1: Chavez, RF
2: Jones, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Morrison, 1B
6: Ackley, LF
7: Zunino, C
8: Miller, SS
9: Gillespie, DH
SP: Young
Logan Morrison returns from his rehab stint in Tacoma. Justin Smoak moves to the 15-day DL; Smoak had been taking up a bench spot as the M’s hoped to get him healthy, but last night illustrated that they simply can’t hold players who aren’t capable of playing. John Buck PHing in a big spot looks completely insane, but injuries and the 7-man ‘pen made it…well, not ‘smart’ or ‘the best of a bad situation,” but something more like tolerable.
The M’s moved MiLB back-up catcher Manny Pina to the Tigers org for a PTBNL. I basically forgot about this move by the time I got to the ‘P’ in PTBNL. Best of luck to you, Manny, whoever you are.
I’m off for a few weeks, but JY will be around, and he’s a better writer anyway. Go M’s!
Game 64, Yankees at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Vidal Nuno, 7:10pm
This is fun. The M’s are playing like a very good team at the moment, and they’ve completely dominated some good clubs in the process. They’re not simply beating up on the dregs of the big leagues – if anything, the dregs are proving stubbornly tough. But against the Angels/Yankees/Tigers, two teams they’ll compete with for the Wild Card, and one team that’s one of the elite squads in the AL, the M’s are a combined 11-4.
Today’s opponent, Vidal Nuno, is a lefty with a pretty good backstory. Drafted in the 48th round out of noted baseball powerhouse Baker College, he pitched in the Indians org for a year and a half before he was cut in 2011. He caught on with the indie league Washington WildThings, then moved into the Yankees system whereupon he shot through the ranks, posting excellent numbers at each level. He made his MLB debut last year in a handful of starts, and has bounced between the pen and the rotation with New York throughout 2014.
Physically, nothing really stands out about Nuno; you can see why he went in a draft round that no longer exists. He’s under 6′, and his fastball clocks in around 88-89mph. He throws a slider to righties and lefties alike, and also has a curve ball and a change which he’ll reserve for right-handers. None of these pitches generates a lot of whiffs, but the overall package isn’t completely awful – he’s barely below the league-average K rate at 18.5%, and his walk rate is just a touch below average as well. In the minors, he shut down lefties, striking out over 35% of them. In his miniscule big league sample, he’s struggled a bit. It may be due to his lack of deception and fastball velocity (lefties have done most of their damage off Nuno’s heater), and it may just be terrible luck – again, he nuked lefties in the minors, and has faced only 59 lefties in just over 300 career batters faced. Teams are aware of what he did in the minors, and they’re aware he’s primarily a FB/SL pitcher, and they’ve set their line-ups accordingly.
His approach seems to be to throw his two-seamer away to righties, and then throw his slider (and to a lesser extent his curve and change) down and in. He’ll aim his four-seam fastball a bit more ecumenically, and has thrown it up in the zone fairly often – a fact which helps explain his awful HR rate at the moment. It’s an interesting inversion of the old pitching coach wisdom of throwing hard stuff in and breaking stuff away, and quite frankly, the jury’s out on whether it makes sense for Nuno to blaze this particular trail, but you’d have to assume it’s a continuation of his approach in the minors – the approach that got him from the Frontier League to the bigs in about a year and a half.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s off to another great start in 2014, with just three unintentional walks and 36 strikeouts in over 50 innings pitched. His K rate’s down a bit, but it seems like an intentional change, as he’s thrown far more two-seamers this year, while throwing very few four-seamers. In his first season, about 6 of every 10 fastballs he threw were four-seamers. That was down to just over 5/10 last season. In 2014, it’s more like 2 of every 10 fastballs. This blizzard of sinkers has produced Iwakuma’s highest GB%, and while it hasn’t eliminated his HR problem, it certainly hasn’t exacerbated it. More interesting to me is that by featuring the two-seamer so much, he’s all but eliminated the velocity and horizontal movement gap between that pitch and his primary weapon, the splitter. His sinker comes in at 88-89, while the splitter’s at 85. This is the kind of thing standard baseball theory typically sees as a problem, but Iwakuma’s had an up-close look at what can happen when you ignore this old saw. Felix Hernandez has cut through the league by throwing a sinker and a change-up at essentially the same speed, and if anything, his change-up is *more* effective now than it’s ever been. Similarly, Iwakuma’s splitter’s been all but unhittable this year despite the gap. Interestingly, at least to me, is the fact that both of them have posted somewhat poor results on their sinker – batters are hitting .353 on Felix’s sinker, and they’re at .347 against Iwakuma’s. Sure, a lot of that has to do with the fact that both use the pitch when they’re behind; it’s their alternative to walking anyone.* Still, both pitchers have arguably never been more effective, and it’s great to see Iwakuma incorporating this lesson from Felix.
Line-up:
1: Bloomquist, 1B
2: Jones, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Gillespie, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Saunders, RF
8: Ackley, LF
9: Miller, SS
SP: Iwakuma
SIX lefties in the line-up today, though the M’s injury issues don’t leave them a whole lot of choice. It’s not the worst match-up in the world, especially if they look to get to Nuno early in the at-bat. He throws a lot of first-pitch fastballs, and lefties have seen that pitch better than righties – again, with the caveat that the sample size for lefties is vanishingly small.
The Rainiers are in Memphis today, with Matt Palmer on the hill against Zach Petrick. Clinton’s at home against Burlington with Jose Flores on the hill for the Lumberkings.
* This is actually an interesting strategic problem; what level of damage can you accept on one pitch if it makes another bullet-proof? I’d love to see the swing rates and whiff rates on change-ups/splitters immediately after a sinker as well.
Podcast: Felix the Juggernaut
Monday morning podcast(s) continues/begins.
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Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner work in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated.