The Seattle Mariners Are In The Playoffs (That Don’t Exist)
If the season ended right this second, Brian Cashman would be like “what the hell?” And the Seattle Mariners would prepare to play a baseball game against the Angels in Anaheim, for the right to go to Oakland in the ALDS. Depending on things, the Mariners could line up to have Felix start the one-game playoff, giving them the greatest competitive advantage. And then if Felix was good for eight innings against a strong lineup, and if the Mariners could produce just enough runs, Lloyd McClendon could hand the ball to Fernando Rodney with a one-run lead, while the Rally Monkey jumped around on the scoreboard…
This is a time to feel good. There have been times to feel other things, like when the Mariners lost 11 of 14 games, but now they’ve gone 7-3 against the Angels, Tigers, Yankees, and Braves, who are a combined 16 games over .500. Put another way, that’s two division leaders, one wild-card team, and another team the Mariners just knocked out of wild-card position. Up next: a much easier time, possibly. The Rays have been dreadful, and here come four games. The Yankees are okay, but they’re not close to 100%. Everybody on the Rangers is hurt, and everybody on the Padres is a flavorless rice cake in a little cylindrical uniform. The Royals are the Mariners’ downside, and the Red Sox haven’t been themselves. The Mariners don’t play a team currently in playoff position until July 11. That’s a lot of games away.
Basically: the Mariners did well against a rough stretch. Now they have an easier stretch. The last time we thought they had an easy stretch, they lost five of six to the Astros and Marlins, but the Marlins aren’t that bad and the Astros picked it up and we can make excuses all day long because we’re protective of the good feelings we get to feel from time to time. You don’t need to let us have this; we’re going to have this, no matter what. The Mariners don’t suck and we’re fun-loving people.
Interestingly, according to the FanGraphs playoff odds, the Mariners’ odds haven’t really changed since the start of the season. They began as roughly a 1-in-3 shot, and they stand today as roughly a 1-in-3 shot. What that hides, additionally, is they have a third the shot at winning the division, while the wild-card odds have gone up about ten percentage points. Put that way, the Mariners’ odds have gotten a little worse. But they’ve also gone 24-15 since their last bad slump, so the odds have an upward trajectory, and what we really care about is that it’s June now and we can be just as interested as we were at the beginning of April. That’s really always the goal. We want for the season to be interesting for as long as possible, because it’s a long season. We’ve made it two months, sometimes hanging on by a thread.
More wins than losses after 59 games. More runs scored than runs allowed. 31-28. Last year, at this point, the Mariners were 26-33. The year before, at this point, the Mariners were 26-33. The year before that, at this point, the Mariners were…31-28. So this isn’t totally unprecedented. From that point on, the 2011 Mariners went 36-67. Never forget how quickly the rug can be taken out from under you. Those Mariners seemed borderline competitive until they were one of the worst teams in baseball. In retrospect it should’ve been easy to see coming, but it’s never that easy at the time. It could happen again! Probably won’t, but it could. Stay grounded. But, have fun. I probably don’t even need to tell you.
The oddest thing is how oddly this has happened. Think about the presumed keys to the Mariners having a successful season. Taijuan Walker hasn’t pitched once. James Paxton’s thrown fewer innings than Joe Beimel. Robinson Cano’s been good, but not totally himself yet. The winner of the Brad Miller/Nick Franklin competition has been other teams. Miller, Franklin, Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Abe Almonte have combined for a 0.4 WAR. Corey Hart sets that to zero by himself. Or, Stefen Romero sets that to zero by himself. Endy Chavez is on the active roster literally right now. Willie Bloomquist started the game today at first base. The Mariners ran out ridiculous lineups today, and last Saturday. They won both times.
To offset the negatives, Felix has decided to kick things up another level. Whoever Roenis Elias is keeps getting better seemingly every week. Compared to Elias, Chris Young has a lower ERA. The bullpen somehow has the third-best ERA in the American League. Kyle Seager and Michael Saunders are on pace for career-best seasons. Mike Zunino’s defense is so good we can sort of overlook his .2-something OBP. James Jones is on the team and not terrible. The Mariners are pretty good defensively by UZR, and by the numbers that Matthew tracks.
It’s all either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how you look at it. The team probably won’t keep hitting so much better with men on base. We don’t know if Paxton’s going to come back, and there are some obvious over-achievers, and it doesn’t help that some of the young guys haven’t gotten better. But then, the Mariners have gotten here without needing everything to go right. Imagine if they weren’t among the league worst at shortstop and DH. Imagine if they were even just adequate. What if Miller’s recent signs of life are legitimate?
As always, you can see the upside and downside. As always, there are under-achievers to balance out certain over-achievers, and vice versa. Not as always, the Mariners are over .500 and in the race with another four months left. That’s what’s most critical in the bigger picture: the Mariners made it a third of the way. There’s not a team vying for the wild card that doesn’t have questions, and it’s not like the Mariners’ questions are more pressing or dire than the rest. The Royals can’t hit. The Yankees don’t have some of their best pitchers. The Rangers lose a player an hour. The Orioles have had a bottom-third rotation and bullpen. The Indians have had a godawful defense.
The projected rest-of-season winning percentages for teams vying for the Mariners’ wild-card slot:
- Red Sox: .533
- Indians: .522
- Rays: .517
- Mariners: .505
- Royals: .496
- Orioles: .494
- Yankees: .493
- Rangers: .489
- White Sox: .447
- Astros: .445
- Twins: .437
And the Mariners have some sort of lead in the standings over all of them.
As proven by recent history, 31-28 after 59 games doesn’t mean much. It doesn’t mean the Mariners won’t suck. It does mean the Mariners haven’t sucked, and it does mean you get to want to watch Mariners games on television when the beautiful weather is trying to persuade you to go for a walk. Walk earlier. Walk later. Don’t walk at all. There’ll be plenty of time to be outside when the Mariners aren’t actively playing competitive, meaningful baseball. Maybe that’ll be July. Maybe it won’t.
Game 59, Mariners at Braves
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Mike Minor, 9:10am (??)
Eaarrrrrly game here. Mike Minor’s a lefty with a FB that scrapes 90 mph, but who posts an above average K rate thanks to a good curve and change, along with what looks like some deception in his delivery. The change is good enough that he has extremely small platoon splits, and he’s able to pound the zone reliably and limit walks. He’s down to essentially two weaknesses. First, home runs. Pitching half his games in Turner Field, Minor shouldn’t have a 1.11 career HR/9. Second, the poor fellow underwent urinary tract surgery this offseason, which is why he’s only making his seventh start of the season. Baseball is unpredictable, and I like to think that each of these game previews can be different or unique in some way, but if I never have to read the phrase “scarring around his urethra” again, I’ll be a happy blogger.
1: Bloomquist 1bwhaaa?
2: Chavez, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Romero, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Gillespie, LF
8: Miller, SS
9/SP: Iwakuma
Trevor Miller, Scott DeCecco start in the minors today. Tacoma’s got a rare day off.
2014 MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford
The first round of baseball’s amateur draft kicks off on Thursday, June 5th. You’ve seen JY’s list of names to be aware of, and you’ve no doubt heard some discussion about local players thanks to the brilliant seasons of Oregon State and, shockingly, the University of Washington. As we’ve done the past two years, we’ve attempted to summarize some of the big issues in the draft in a Q and A with Chris Crawford, proprietor of MLB Draft Insider, a writer for ESPN, and now the head honcho of a new site, DraftTotheShow.com. The draft changed markedly with the imposition of bonus pool caps in 2012, and we’ve seen teams, players and agents struggle to come to terms with how to value draft picks (some of which now CAN be traded) and the consequences of free agents signing with new teams. You can argue that teams now clearly OVERvalue draft picks, and that their reticence to sign a, say, Stephen Drew, is foolish. Then, you look at the value of pre-arb players, or the new team-friendly extensions like the one Jon Singleton just signed, and you start to argue it the other way. The draft isn’t necessarily *better* than it’s ever been, but it’s certainly more complex and interesting.
So let’s get to it:
1: Who will the M’s select at #6? Who SHOULD they pick?
As I mentioned — or at least should have mentioned — in the last time we did this, the Mariners are one of the more secretive organizations in baseball. I have been told that they are considering several guys, but the name I have heard that they’re hoping fall to them the most is Alex Jackson, a catcher/outfielder out of Rancho Bernardo High School. I’ve also heard names like LSU right-hander Aaron Nola, Olympia High School (Orlando) shortstop Nick Gordon and a plethora of others that are being considered, but it sounds like if Jackson is still on the board, he’s the guy.
And if that’s who they do take, I don’t think it’s a bad choice. This is a terrible offensive class, and he’s the only guy that I think could have a plus hit-tool and plus power tool in the entire class. I can already hear Mariner fans groaning about taking another catcher, but Jackson will likely move to the outfield and he’s a good enough athlete to play a solid right field. He won’t be able to help until 2017, but, the upside and floor are too high for me to pass.
Read more
Game 58, Mariners at Braves
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Gavin Floyd, 4:10pm
The M’s head south to face the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. Erasmo’s up to make this start, as we mentioned after Brandon Maurer’s demotion.
I’ve heard lots more M’s chatter recently in the national press, on local radio, and just in conversation than I’ve heard in years. Well, more POSITIVE chatter, anyway. People think the team’s decent, and could be better than decent if they can find another bat in free agency or trade. Everyone recognizes that starting pitching has been an unlikely strength. Felix is Felix, but many of us were terrified about the back of the rotation. Roenis Elias and Chris Young have been key components of the M’s success to date, and they’ve certainly helped cover for an offense that’s been a weird combination of lucky and terrible. Sure, Elias was good in spring training this year, but not as good as either Maurer or Carter Capps last year. Essentially no one saw as a steady contributor, well on his way to an above-league-average season.
But as nice a surprise the rotation’s been for Seattle, look what’s going on in Atlanta. Tonight’s starter, Gavin Floyd, is 31, and returning from TJ surgery. In his final few years on the South Side of Chicago, Floyd first underperformed his fielding-independent stats, then saw his fielding independent stats tank along with all the rest of his numbers. In particular, his platoon split problems were just too big to hide – it didn’t matter what he did to righties if lefties were approaching 2 HR/9 off of him. The Braves brought in the recuperating Floyd as well as such luminaries as Aaron Harang, and somehow, they’ve got the 5th best FIP of any rotation. Sort by ERA, of course, and they’re number 1. We talk so much about the Canos and the Choos of the market, guys who are clearly, obviously better than Chris Young and Aaron %$#ing Harang, but it’s hilarious to see this game frustrate attempts at small-sample prognostication. The M’s can use Endy Chavez at DH and get big hits from Willie Bloomquist to beat Scherzer and the Tigers. The Braves can pick up old, failed starters and watch them post brilliant peripherals along with sparkly runs allowed. This game makes no sense sometimes, and I think we’re all glad about that.
Tonight’s line-up is heavily left-handed, as it should be. Floyd’s overall numbers have improved across the board, but he’s still got platoon splits.
1: Jones, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Ackley, LF
7: Buck, C
8: Miller, SS
9/SP: Erasmooooo
Tonight our 3rd annual draft preview posts – check it out after the game. The amateur draft kicks off this Thursday.
Game 57, Mariners at Yankees
King Felix vs. David Phelps
Happy Felix Day!
David Phelps is remarkably unremarkable. Bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation, he’s put together a decent 2014 thus far despite well below average whiff rates. How does a guy who can’t make anyone miss strike out 21% of the batters he faces? How does a guy who relies on a sinker, slider and curve to left-handers post reverse platoon splits? Phelps has a change-up, and it’s not without its utility, but he throws it less than 10% overall; lefties are more likely to see a slider than a change-up. His sinker’s around 90-92mph, and lefties have put up a .525 slugging percentage on it in Phelps’ brief MLB career. Nothing about this profile looks like it would pose a problem for lefties, and, to be fair, he was Maurered by lefties in his first call-up in 2012. But last year, he K’d 23% of lefties and only walked 8%. That was a far sight better than his performance against righties – the batters you’d assume might find a same-handed slider difficult to contend with. This season, he’s striking out a few more lefties, and while his walk rate’s regressed, so have the homers. Phelps still isn’t great, and there’s plenty in the data that suggests his success to date – such as it is – won’t last. And the overall sample here is still very small – it all needs some regressing. But it’s odd, and I keep thinking good teams *know* when a pitcher’s getting lucky against groups of hitters and when he’s doing something repeatable and effective to neutralize the platoon advantage. For Phelps, a lot of it is his curve ball, which is easily his best pitch. But the answer’s probably a lot more nuanced than that – Phelps’ results overall don’t match up with the components, and it’s interesting to think about how/why that might be. The A’s, presumably, know why Tommy Milone’s effective despite possessing the physical size and velocity of an 11th grader. I’m not saying that guys like Milone or Phelps are how championships are won, but nurturing effective depth beyond your starting 5 is clearly critical, and while the M’s have been terribly unlucky this year, they’ve also struggled with this.
1: Jones, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Ackley, DH
8: Chavez, LF
9: Miller, SS
SP: El Cartelua
Lots of lefties in the line-up against the righty Phelps. Of course, Phelps has started to run reverse splits, and has even splits over his career. This isn’t equivalent to the Scherzer situation, although hey, that looked like insanity on paper, but the M’s came out of the game and the series with a win. I can’t believe that actually happened, and I just hope it’s a turning point.
Seriously, congratulations to Roenis Elias, who shut out a very good line-up and did what even Hisashi Iwakuma wasn’t able to do. Elias has been up and down, but his success against right-handed batters has been jaw-dropping. I, perhaps because of Maurer’s struggles last year, expected him to scuffle against heavily-RH line-ups, and he just hasn’t.
The story of the day has to do with the Astros’ extension/promotion of 1B prospect Jon Singleton. This is really interesting; despite the fact that we all know/understand/tacitly approve of teams toying with service time to extend their control over players, we’ve never seen it acknowledged by teams so publicly.
Podcast: Blake Beavan is like a ratty sponge
Monday morning podcast(s) continues/begins.
That is the conclusion Jeff and I drew in this week’s podcast. In addition, my apologies for a weird audio feedback issue around the 50th minute. It only lasts about one minute.
Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner work in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. A lot of those funds have gone into purchasing new equipment to hopefully prevent that interference issue above!
Game 56, Tigers at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Max Scherzer, 1:10pm
The M’s held on to a big game yesterday, holding off the Tigers to win 3-2. That’s big, because the M’s could’ve been looking at a sweep – the Tigers are the clear favorites in this one, with the defending Cy Young winner on the hill. Yesterday’s game was also another object lesson in the unpredictability of the game; the M’s won a ballgame against a clearly-better team despite a line-up that featured hitters with a 78 and a 74 career wRC+ in the top two line-up spots. So hey, just because the M’s are starting Endy Chavez at DH today, it doesn’t necessarily m-Wait, come back!
Max Scherzer’s took the leap from “talented” to “really, really good” in 2012. In that year, he picked up a new pitch – a curve ball – that he credits with helping him against lefties. He used the pitch much more often in 2013, and walked away with a Cy Young award. He’d traditionally been a fastball/change-up/slider guy, and while his change-up was effective overall, lefties hit him fairly hard. Last year, Scherzer blew lefties away; they put up a .283 wOBA, and his curve was an important part of his approach. He still goes to the change-up as his put-away pitch, but he often used the curve to get ahead of lefties. That, along with improved fastball command, allowed him to pitch ahead in the count considerably more than the league average (42% vs. an average of 36%).
Still, the idea that he became great by overcoming his platoon splits doesn’t fully explain Scherzer’s emergence. In fact, he improved against *righties* every year from 2010-2013. Righties had an OBP against him last year of .219. He’s had a K:BB ratio over 5 against righties each year since 2011, and he’s driven his walks down and his K’s up. The curve’s nice, and he’s clearly more effective against lefties than he used to be, but Scherzer’s great because righties have essentially had no chance against him. There’s no new pitch, no change in mechanics – but as his command improved, his slider became unhittable. Last year, righties missed on about half of their swings against the slider (vs. a whiff rate to righties of 28% back in 2009). As many point out, platoon splits aren’t a kiss of death or a sign of a future bullpen arm as long as a pitcher completely dominates one side. Scherzer’s doing that now, so he can be effective even when his performance against lefties regresses a bit (as it’s doing so far in 2014).
Line-up:
1: Chavez, DH (I’ve checked it four times. I swear it’s true.)
2: Jones, CF
3: Saunders, RF
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Bloomquist, 2B
SP: Elias
Again, the M’s have serious injury problems at the moment, with Robbie Cano missing his third straight start. Nobody goes into managing with the intention of one day writing Endy Chavez’s name in the DH spot and handing that to an umpire in front of thousands of paying customers. I get that. But man, the M’s are trying desperately to stick around the wild card chase and it’s harder to take that seriously right now. In their defense, the Blue Jays have used Ryan Goins and Munenori Kawasaki this year, and they’re leading the AL East. The Rangers are sticking around despite injury problems that have forced them to start Josh Wilson, JP Arencibia and others in the line-up and Joe Saunders and Tanner Scheppers in the rotation. This isn’t *uniquely* embarrassing, but it’s embarrassing.
Jordan Pries starts for Tacoma today as they start their road trip in El Paso.