Michael Saunders and Perceived Value*
I have a clever memory when it comes to the failed experiments of the Mariners organization. I remember fondly the year where the Tacoma Rainiers tried to field six to seven DHs. I was overjoyed that minor league season when we tried to convert at least five position players to the mound, which culminated in trying to teach a career catcher the knuckleball. And I recall, with less fondness, the beginning of that three-year span where the Mariners initiated a supposedly revolutionary conditioning program that later fizzled out and went unmentioned for the last two years of its implementation. Since baseball remains that sport where from a mechanical standpoint, no one has a clear idea of what’s right or wrong, it certainly seemed like a good idea at the time, unlike the other trials, which were fun!, but not well-advised.
A story that I read during that period but now can’t find in archive (edit: Reader and LL author Colin O’Keefe tracked it down) made comparison between two kinds of strengths, a “lateral” strength, which was presented as the good kind, and the “vertical,” which was bad I guess unless you were Russell Branyan. For the purposes of illustration, the Mariners trotted out two of their younger hitters and demonstrated that one Dustin Ackley was a good boy for having the right, lateral kind of strength, and that Michael Saunders was suspect for having the wrong, vertical kind of strength. A weird spectacle to go through, but surely the Mariners were proud of their recent draft pick and wanted to use the example to vet both him and the new method.
The reality of Mariners fandom is that since Ackley debuted in 2011, he’s accumulated 6.3 in offensive WAR according to B-R and in the same span, Saunders has had 6.4 in oWAR, which includes a rather disastrous -1.1 2011 and fewer opportunities both that year and in 2014. And Ackley gets the boost of a 2.7 oWAR in 90 games in 2011, a clip he has never come close to repeating. The past three years, of course, provide few metrics you can look at that wouldn’t say that Saunders has been the superior offensive performer (7.5 oWAR vs. 3.6 oWAR, as one example). These are facts that exist as we enter the offseason and rumors begin to emerge that the Mariners will be expected to shop Michael Saunders around on the heels of them calling him out earlier in the offseason. Swell timing, guys.
Jeff and Matthew and others have discussed the matter of general management and how, as multiple organizations have gone out to develop their braintrusts and start implementing methods previously relegated to use by nerds, the gap of talent amongst GMs has closed and it’s no longer an easy inefficiency to take advantage of. But the Mariners are not a team that is presently perceived as having management on that cutting edge, instead they use their old methods, have their old favorites, and sometimes things work out for them. Sometimes things work out for the Giants and the Royals too. Sometimes things don’t work out in the same way.
We talk about organization blind spots and how one group might prioritize this or that and do it exceptionally well and another might be deficient. One recurring sentiment, I would guess, amongst new GMs is a tendency to value the players they’ve inherited somewhat differently from the players that they themselves acquire. It’s natural, different philosophies and all. And one thing that we saw as the Zduriencik team got settled was that there was an inclination to remove players who were holdovers and retain those who had the present administration’s stamp of approval.
I don’t know what changed particularly in the trajectories of Ackley and Saunders. We know that Ackley has messed with our hearts and minds so much that we have taken a .245/.293/.398 batting line from last season, as a corner outfielder, and ascribed to it new hopes of improvement. We also know that Saunders re-invented himself as an offensive player a few years back thanks to Josh Bard’s brother and his rubber bands (remember those? remember when we wanted to hire them as our hitting coach?). The lateral/vertical thing of 2010 may not hold true in the same way now. But we are also aware that Saunders has had difficult stretches, last year on account of rushing back from a shoulder injury a bit too quickly and this year, partially on account of a freak illness that caused him to lose fifteen pounds which he contracted from his baby daughter. The shoulder and oblique injuries that preceded that? Maybe those are on him and his conditioning. Maybe they aren’t.
What we also know is what we’ve rehashed the past month+. Saunders was called out by the organization for his work ethic in a 2014 wrap-up press conference. This was the first time Saunders became aware of any dissatisfaction with his personal upkeep. And if we know that much, we can also conjecture as to whether or not the Mariners sat down with Saunders and said “look, what can we do to work together to try to ensure that this doesn’t happen again?” From experience, talking about Saunders and Smoak and other players, we’re also cognizant of another possible blind spot, in that many present Mariners have had to go outside of the organization for solutions to what was perceived as holding back their performances. Which brings to the fore another point: Would Justin Smoak, a young first baseman who never hit above .240 and has slugged over .400 once over a season in his five years in the major leagues, have been granted so many opportunities had he been a Bavasi holdover?
I feel like I’m down to the point where I’m trying to make a pattern on inference alone. I certainly don’t know how involved the Mariners are with player conditioning, for one. Maybe we just hear about the outside efforts because it’s unusual. Working internally is no news at all. But we’ve seen the Mariners play favorites with their guys, we’ve seen them undervalue and sometimes marginalize players who don’t fit into their present scheme (Jaso), and we’re now seeing Saunders, who was not their guy and who in the past did not adhere to the current ideology, talked about as an expendable part in a struggling outfield where another, favored player continues to get chances with less in the recent past to support his case outside of general health. Let’s see where this goes. I’m not especially looking forward to it.
* The Author would like to note for the record that he has been defending Saunders since USSM had its original cast and was holding pizza parties on Capitol Hill, so, probable bias.
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38 Responses to “Michael Saunders and Perceived Value*”
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This is fascinating.
Also, here’s the story you’re referencing: http://seattletimes.com/html/marinersblog/2011377718_bell_tolls_for_michael_saunder.html
Feel like this is a massive piece of the puzzle.
Well, let’s see if this makes sense.
There is a bias against Saunders because of who the general manager was when he was drafted;
because of that, the current GM is willing to get rid of him without a replacement plan for an equal or better player.
I admit that I can’t make any sense of the motivation for the press conference comments on Saunders; I can’t figure out what purpose they serve.
But I also think this line of reasoning doesn’t hold much water.
Bless you. I was doing all kinds of wacky time and phrase sensitive searches and turning up nothing. This really sells the point I was making.
Well said, Jay. Also, how depressing. Saunders has been my guy ever since the Milton Bradley fiasco.
I’m gonna hate seeing him go, but maybe it’ll help me to get completely over the Mariners.
To analyze this type of a move, all you have to understand is that the Mariner front office and possibly ownership are imbeciles.
So, Jerry Crasnik makes up a rumor and we’re supposed to take it seriously? He’s spitball speculating based on the same recent events we’ve all seen. Who is expecting them to shop Saunders hard? Crasnik? Shit, I can make up that kind of baseless rumor.
Well then get to it man, there’s money in this! What do you think we have Twitter for?
I see a trade of Saunders + prospects for Cespedes in the Mariners future. Cespedes is the sort of player who makes Jack Z drool. Can anyone reassure me this won’t happen? Please?
Hearing from a source close to the (USS) Mariners that there’s money involved with any proposed deals regarding Saunders.
Is Saunders the last guy other than Felix that predates Zduriencik’s arrival?
I didn’t think there was anyone left who predated Jack. One of the authors said that at one of the get-togethers Jack and/or one of his original inner circle looked at the 40-man roster and were aghast. They couldn’t believe how poorly constructed the roster was to play half its games in Safeco Field. So they set out to revamp it. So given that and the passage of time, I’m surprised anyone is still left.
Zduriencik really needs to work on his people skills, he’s way below league average. McClendon is guilty of aiding and abetting. Saunders deserved better, he’s not the one who should be shopped.
A Bavasi holdover and still the Mariners best outfielder, definitely time to slam him and dump him. The new conditioning regimen was supposed to increase the number of home runs hit. It is not Saunders fault it did not work.
“Shopping” someone doesn’t mean they’re actively trying to get rid of him. I still don’t buy the rumor in the first place, but even if it is true, there is a vast difference between the two narrative ideals.
I think our org has an issue with how it handles player injury and it goes beyond Jack. The organization seems to have a long-running bias in favor of something like “player toughness” and playing through injuries, which predates Jack Z. Going back to the Bavasi days we would hear how Ibanez or Sexson had played much of the season with a nagging injury rather than taking care of it. We hear about how the team accused Michael Morse of dreaming up a wrist issue that sapped his power…one which a doctor corrected before his return to productivity this year. Clearly Saunders came back too soon last year with the shoulder injury. Maybe it’s Rick Griffin, maybe it’s someone higher up, who knows. But this is not a new problem.
“I see a trade of Saunders + prospects for Cespedes in the Mariners future. Cespedes is the sort of player who makes Jack Z drool. Can anyone reassure me this won’t happen? Please?”
Cespedes looks more and more like MiltonBradley2.0 so Z will probably do anything needed to bring him to Safeco.
We should also remember that Carlos Peguero was a player inherited from the prior regime, and he got more chances than he deserved. So beyond the “our guy” bias, there is also an area where certain skill sets are valued and others are not. The issue, of course, is the front office weightings of those skill sets.
It’s kind of like looking through a store window and trying to figure out which melon is ripe but not too ripe. Buying a melon, you just go in the store and find out. We can’t do that with the Mariners.
I’m still not sure if the M’s comments were a personal dig against Saunders or if he was just being used as an example of a problem. Either way, I’ve always liked Saunders as a player and hope he sticks and plays a full year as a regular outfielder. He’s earned it.
If he did get traded, that happens, and it happens to better players than Michael. I’d guess the Mariners are also “shopping” some of their favored players and would pull the trigger on just about anyone with the right deal.
On the plus side the Mariners are well positioned to contend for the division title and well-constructed to be in the playoffs, with a good addition or two.
When your boss calls you out in public, you can:
1. Curse, get depressed, cry on your agents shoulder and talk about how screwed up the organization is.
2. Use it as motivation, get in the best and most buff condition of your life, and show them who is king.
I have to think that JZ and Mac felt that Saunders needed a boot in the butt and a challenge. The method of delivery may not be what some would use, but if it works?
As a person who just won an autographed Saunders jersey I am discouraged. As an m’s fan it is depressing to watch the Dodgers and others load up on good front office talent.
Good to see good off season analysis,Jay
An excellent point, Steve. Thanks for adding that.
This is a philosophical question that I’ve gotten into with some friends which has come up as pertinent in light of the welcoming, tolerant, and positive Pete Carroll approach. I don’t know if the enthusiasm for the Carroll method is the same now as it was a couple months ago (I would hope people account for variables adequately), but there is something in it that seems like it might have been more effective in certain cases. The Yankees were known to coddle Jesus Montero a bit, and while his defense was bleh and he couldn’t run with his silly little legs, they didn’t focus on that and, at the time, he was the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues.
Now, granted, we have long had trouble developing those elite minor league hitting prospects into major league contributors (one of them is a secondary subject of this very post!), but I have wondered whether the Mariners had a poor assessment of Montero’s personality and that his lack of success is in part due to a series of misunderstandings. Or, to summarize broadly, being publicly called out can work for some, be disastrous for others, and should not be the only technique available. I’m not extraordinarily confident that the Mariners are smart enough EQ-wise to make the right choices there, based off of the anecdotal stuff that’s available to everyone.
Maybe the Mariners just don’t like us Canadians, because we pronounce our vowels a little differently. Look out Paxton…you’re next eh!
Maybe Jack Z felt bad about the earlier comments and is planning to TAKE Saunders shopping next week?
PLEEZE bring back baseball, I can’t stand all this Dr. Phil psychology. Isn’t it funny that only people who know nothing about baseball get to run MLB organizations? It is obvious that the M’s management is incompetent, no one could be this unlucky for so long. It is obvious that the Giant’s organization is very good, you can’t win 3 WS titles in 5 years on good Karma. Just how do you tell before the fact ?
Who will win the most titles in the next 10 years? I am on my way to Vegas and I need the answer. Even I can predict the past. Do “competent” front offices win more often than “incompetent”? How come the Giants win and the A’s don’t?
Money just might be a factor…
You’re conveniently ignoring that the A’s arent the only Moneyball team. The BoSox did pretty well under Epstein, don’t cha think? And the Rays have as well.
Westy – I am not being pro or against any system, just mentioned two clubs that were in it this year. I guess my point is there is no system that guarantees success or failure. If Z took the exact same actions and was a success he would be a genius. The Giants had MadBum this year and their a bunch of geniuses, without him, it would have been soul searching time.
PS. The M’s were 1 win from being possibly the Royals or even the Giants ( or the A’s). I think the response to this season would have been dramatically different if this team had made it to the ALCS or further. I am not much of a Z fan but some of the criticism sounds like this team finished 20 games back and were just hopeless
Saunders was literally ranked 25th on the roster by the training staff for preventative treatments throughout the season and work ethic. I know it looks like he’s a hard working guy… but unless you’re talking the batting cages, he never liked to do the extra work. The GM doesn’t have a bias against Saunders… if he did, don’t you think he would have been gone early on??? Saunders is always getting hurt, but most are preventable injuries. Jack is simply saying that they’d like to see Saunders take more of a serious approach to his overall conditioning and preventative treatments to help his body sustain the rigors of a 162 game season.
Source?
If anyone has an inside line on what’s going on with the team, it’s probably Shannon Drayer.
Let’s take a look at what she’s said about this…
“At the time I found the comments by Zduriencik and McClendon to be a little surprising as this was the first I had heard of this concern. My thought was that I have no question Saunders works hard, and I doubt the Mariners do, either. He’s driven to do so, in fact.”
So yeah, SSOB, let’s have some sort of citation for your statement.
And here’s Divish, who also tried to pin Jack Z down on this matter:
Zduriencik remained firm that it wasn’t questioning Saunders’ work ethic.
“Michael is a good worker,” Zduriencik said. “He’s always been a good worker.”
Jack made poorly thought out comments in the original press interview and had an opportunity to restate his position. Instead made it even worse by doubling down on a position he can’t defend. Lloyd had to make stupid excuses for not playing Saunders in a large number of games when Michael was healthy and Lloyd was the the one suffering from an advanced brain cramp. Jack has done some good things but he is too often an excuse-making asshole. Lloyd seems well respected by the players but that doesn’t mean his not a dunderhead on occasion.
@Westside guy on November 9th, 2014 12:42 pm
@Westside guy on November 9th, 2014 12:51 pm
So maybe the real preventive treatment needed in the Mariners organization is for Jack Z. to do whatever it is he needs to do to control his foot-in-mouth syndrome?
Saunders is always getting hurt, but most are preventable injuries.
Stop pretending you know this. You don’t, and you’re not fooling anyone here by pretending you do.
Where are these Seattle training staff “rankings”?
If I didn’t know any better I’d say this was the organization distancing itself from Saunders to make the trading of him more palatable for the fan base and his peers. This kind of thing used to happen more often especially when the organization was going to just dump the player or at least not get a great return. The Seahawks did a similar thing with Percy Harvin although they at least waited until after they traded him to start the smear campaign.
Since this post is perceivably about perception, and we’ve managed to work our way all the way around from the M’s perceptions of Saunders, to perceptions of why the organization (read: Z man with Z foot in hiz mouth) did what they did by dissing Saunders pre-move … I perceive:
A classic Z+M’s fuckup.
Jack, distracted or some damn thing, let his guard down and showed his cards. I think his mind was so far gone and made up about Saunders it was a miracle the dis hadn’t happened earlier, and was as mild — if unjust — as it was. In retrospect, I’m now surprised Saunders played even when he was feeling good.
Perceptions. Giving them all the credit they have so richly earned over the years for their stellar public relations.
The whole treatment of Saunders is confusing. If they just don’t think he’s worth having on the team, I guess that is one thing (and something many of us would disagree with). Even if that was the case, why tell everyone (including potential trade targets) he doesn’t work hard and has issues with injuries? It seems like a lose-lose move, unless you are going with the theory that this type of tactic would motivate him to suddenly work extra hard to improve.