Podcast: A Ripple Amongst a Storm
Matthew Carruth · December 17, 2014 at 8:24 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Many teams made big splashes (nautical puns!) but the Mariners satisfy themselves, for now, with a tiny ripple.
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
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Two podcasts with Jeff on a Wednesday, following his two-hour chat on a Tuesday. TodayIFoundOut that at current usage levels, most experts now agree that Jeff Sullivan will be drained dry of entertainment value by 2017.
Great. Now I want Ivars.
What’s really strange about this year and grading the Mariners offseason, coupled with how they have been panned over the last few years for their moves, and calls for JZ’s head, is that they have been near the top of the projected wins on Fan Graphs for all MLB teams for 2015.
How did that happen? I don’t mean how did it happen-happen, how did the M’s do it with so little acknowledgement from the baseball pundits that be? If, as Cameron likes to point out, terrible moves have been followed by horrible moves, how did they assemble such a team?
There seems to be a disconnect here, or else the M’s are the luckiest team in a good long while, or maybe the projections are way off.
San Diego has just finished retooling their entire outfield without gutting their starting rotation. The Mariners, with a similar need, replaced one part time outfielder with another one. On the plus side, that meant 3 very good outfielders did not move to the Mariners’ AL opponents.
I agree with Matthew (I think he said something like this) that the outfield/shortstop situation is paper-thin right now — one bust or injury, and you are glad you have Willie Bloomquist and his ~zero WAR around to fill the gap. And a bust or injury among that group is highly likely.
So I think they are still an outfielder away, but I expect they will get that last piece.
It seems that some of the optimism about the M’s comes more from a relatively weak schedule. The BoSox have a projected WAR +3 over the M’s yet are forecast to have 1 less win.
All of this stuff is the second worst stuff on the planet. The worst would be No talk about baseball.
I guess I am just a beaten down M’s fan, when I see it THEN I will believe it. GO M’s.
What is a little weird about the fangraphs projection is that the have Walker pitching less than 50 innings. They have Happ taking Young’s spot. If Happ can really outpitch Walker that would be a good thing. I think it is more of an option deal however.
Denniss, Longgeorge. Paper thin outfield, weak schedules. True. And especially about believing it when it’s actually done. No way am I implying that it’s the same situation now as a year ago, especially in not having come off that horrible season … but I remember the bitter outfield jokes even then. Lawn darts, Lawn furniture. Tables and chairs extending Edgar’s. Same. Damn. Thing.
Although we may just have to live with it. And probably can, up through the trade deadline. Wouldn’t it be nice if they found some more satisfying solution to this piece of the puzzle … right now?
Oh … Go M’s. I’m STILL very much looking forward to 2015.
And, no, I do not have Padres envy. Preller is nuts. To own an outfield like that, you’d better have absolute, top-tier pitching.
The point with the Pads is that they went out and got the outfielders they felt they needed and they were all reported Mariner targets. Their park is similar to SafeCo and it will be interesting to see if trading defense for hitting will work for them. In the meantime the Mariners can go after their scraps.
The Pads gave up boatloads of prospects. 4 just on the Upton deal. I am not enough of a geek to know what the quality is, but if Walker was a necessary piece for us, at least one of the Pads prospects would figure to be top tier.
The Pads kept their top two prospects. I agree that these moves need to work out and they left themselves without a true centerfielder. However, I do not understand the Mariners strategy for staffing their outfield given the number of outfielders available this off-season.
I wonder if Maybin will get a shot at CF since they really don’t have any other options at the moment. Maybe try Myers at 1b or they might not be done trading.
Longgeorge, you mentioned Happ taking Young’s spot. What is happening to Young? Why haven’t we signed him again? Or why hasn’t anybody else? I haven’t heard a peep about him this offseason.
Also, Jeff, Rihanna’s Umbrella! You had me lol’ing (partially because at first I thought you meant her ACTUAL umbrella).
It would be great if the M’s brought in Andy Dirks as the 4th outfielder.
He’s hit .291, .346 OBP against righties, 600 at bats.
I’m not alone:
http://calltothepen.com/2014/12/04/whats-difference-andy-dirks-michael-saunders/
He has health questions, but the Tigers are said to be open to bringing him back. Why not give him a shot here?
okinawadave Chris Young -??????????????????????? He is a free agent
Random segue… I was reading a recap of Felix’s season, and it still amazes me that he DIDN’T win the Cy Young:
“Felix Hernandez had the best season of his outstanding 10-year career, going 15-6 and leading the AL in ERA, WHIP and opponent’s batting average while posting a career-high in strikeouts. For good measure, he cranked out a Major League-record 16 straight starts of seven or more innings with two or fewer runs allowed in midseason.
His club-record 2.14 ERA was the lowest by an AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez’s 1.74 in 2000 and his 0.915 WHIP was the second-lowest in the league since the DH came into play in 1973. He also became the only pitcher to record 200-plus innings and 200-plus strikeouts in each of the last six seasons, tied for the fourth-longest streak in MLB history behind only Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens and Walter Johnson.”
How does all that NOT win the Cy Young…? Still don’t get it.
Seems like Felix and Trout are being treated the same way by the voters. Trout should have 3 MVPs and Felix 2 Cy Youngs but both only have one.
Because Mr. Kluber had a hell of a season himself.
Absolutely, Kluber had a great season… But he didn’t set any all-time MLB records along the way… Maybe it was just bad luck that their season coincided, but I think people would have better understood if Felix had beaten Kluber, than the other way around. And that’s NOT a knock on Kluber, totally deserving of the award too.
I think the tiebreaker should have been a poll of MLB players… One game, you absolutely HAVE to win, who do you wanna face– Felix Hernandez or Corey Kluber?
(although I should have said, as part of that poll– “if they had equally proficient offenses to support them”)
One game, you absolutely HAVE to win, who do you wanna face– Felix Hernandez or Corey Kluber?
This isn’t exactly fair, but in a game his team HAD to win, and a game that Felix winning would have been the difference between the Mariners playing a game 163 and not playing that game, Felix got pounded by the Blue Jays. Losing that game probably influenced the vote.
Hey, you asked the question. He had a chance to win a crucial game to his team’s playoff hopes. He didn’t, and it wasn’t because the offense failed.
That being said, Felix will probably have a good shot at taking the “well, we’ve never seen him be the difference in his team making the playoffs down the stretch/in the playoffs” slur off his record in 2015.
You are forgetting that the Mariner defense also failed Felix in that game. Having a plus defender in right could have saved the Mariners’ season in late August and September.
It’s funny how memory works. Just the night before that loss, Paxton got hammered even worse (starter for J’s: Happ). And how, in their last 20 games, they lost 12 games … i.e. playing at .400 and including in that stretch a couple of the worst losing streaks, with the worst point spreads, of the season. Something which, supposedly, wasn’t supposed to happen given the August upgrades.
Fact is, on a one game season, any game that should not have been lost, could have been the season game. (I know it’s not kosher, but I tend to remember ugly closer meltdowns … the sort of 9th inning optics which accounts, possibly, for how Cy Young voters couldn’t help factoring in the King’s second to last outing, when each game suddenly had meaning).
It’s been quite a while since we’ve had a season where any particular game becomes THE game. That outing by Felix in no way deserves to be that, either for the season or in terms of the Cy Young. But nothing succeeds like success, and end-of-season tailspins — even when faced with a monstrously difficult schedule — tend to be remembered.
Funny, just talking about this makes me dither once again in favor of them finding a viable RF this winter, rather than looking for something before the trade deadline.
Deciding the Cy Young award on one game is part of the problem. Yes, Felix had his worst outing of the season at a very inopportune time. Even so, that game wasn’t a must win for them to get into the playoffs. The M’s needed to win that game but losing it didn’t eliminate them from the playoffs. The voters should have been looking at game 162 instead as he was the King again in that game in a game they HAD to win. I know that they also needed someone else to lose but if they lost that game they were eliminated.
Eponymous-
Aw yes, the old Straw Pitcher argument… Well yeah, the odds aren’t 100% with anyone, that’s why it was “IF” you had one game to win… It’s a stats site, where we very rarely deal with individual games and individual results here– I learned that a long time ago. So maybe it’s not the right place to pose the question.
I mean, that’d be silly… That’d be like saying you don’t want Felix to start a “must win” game if you were picking off the M’s staff only, based on that game.
Or that in a clutch situation, bottom of the 9th, two out, down by 3, bases loaded, you’d pinch hit Endy Chavez, ’cause he just hit a home run in last night’s game– nevermind that it’s only his 2nd in the past 2 seasons…
Aw yes, the old Straw Pitcher argument…
You might have noticed me preceding that with an explicit statement saying it wasn’t exactly a fair argument.
But if the M’s win that Toronto game behind a good performance by Felix and end up in game 163, I think Felix wins the Cy Young. This is not to say it is a fair way to make a voting decision, but I think it impacted it; the klieg lights of an actual pennant race showed up that late in a season for the first time in his career… and it didn’t work out well.
Eponymous…
Yeah, I was playing along… And I actually wrote back in that game thread that I had a nagging feeling this game might cost Felix the Cy Young… It just felt like one of those bad timing things. Like people were actually tuning in to see him dominate, and to make their decision easier, and instead they turned it off with a bad taste in their mouth.
Absolutely great season, none-the-less, and hey, maybe NOT winning it brings Felix into this season even MORE hell bent on pitching well, in a season we’re considered serious contenders…? That wouldn’t be a bad thing.
It’s all a set-up for “Felix Hernandez, 2015 Cy Young Winner, 2015 MVP, 2015 World Series MVP”…