Game 71, Padres at Mariners

June 17, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 25 Comments 

Roenis Elias vs. Eric Stults, 12:40 pm

What, I knew who Elias was before the season. I didn’t know Eric Stults, but he’s a National League guy, so I don’t expect to know who he is. He’s been in the majors off and on since 2006 and has cracked 100 innings once in the majors by more than 100 innings. Stults does not have good stuff. His fastball is below average, so he throws it only half the time, throws the change a quarter of the time, and then split the rest between breaking balls. He tries to get guys to chase and sometimes it works. He’s never been good before, but on the other hand, Mariners? That Stults is a left-hander means we get a new and wacky lineup.

CF James Jones
RF Stefen Romero
2B Robinson Cano
DH John Buck (CLEAN-UP HITTER)
3B Kyle Seager
C Mike Zunino
LF Cole Gillespie
1B Jesus “Never An option At First” Montero
SS Brad Miller

Those of you near televisions or secretly watching streams have an opportunity to watch Jesus Montero defend, you lucky dogs. I imagine that Lloyd’s recent willingness to screw around and let Buck and Zunino bat in the same lineup is partially because Montero could technically serve as our emergency catcher. If it wasn’t him before, I guess Bloomquist? It’s one of the reasons why I’ve missed having Carter Capps around, says the guy who occasionally thinks about who the Mariners emergency catcher might be.

Speaking of roster construction, now that I look at the Padres as a team, this is sort of a who’s who of guys I wasn’t aware were on the Padres. Former first-round picks Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy! Former high-end closers Huston Street and Joaquin Benoit! Rene Rivera! Former elite prospect Cameron Maybin who has really only been good a few times in his career (and has been there for years)! For being the Padres, they sure seem to have a Mariners-looking roster construction.

Today is the anniversary of Dustin Ackley’s debut. Think about that. Or don’t think about it. But because I mentioned it, your brain is doing it anyway. I’m in control now.

Game 70, Padres at Mariners

June 16, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 19 Comments 

Chris Young vs. Tyson Ross, 7:10 pm

The last time we saw Tyson Ross was in relief on May 27th of last year, but we also saw him plenty before that as a member of the A’s. He’s the best player involved in that weird A’s/Padres trade in which he was sent with A.J. Kirby-Jones in exchange for Andy Parrino (55 career OPS+) and Andrew Werner (0.3 WAR over 40.1 innings in 2012, hasn’t pitched in the majors since). Proof that even Beane can make a stinker of a trade every now and then.

Ross’ new thing this year is that his groundball rate is higher than ever at 61.1%. He’s also had his HR/FB higher than ever because groundball pitchers tend to miss up and so it goes. He’s the same fastball/slider guy that he’s ever been except that the two-seam is back now after last year’s hiatus.

The radio was trying to play this up as a big deal, referring to the Padres as “pesky,” when the Mariners have a 47-43 record against them all time, a better winning percentage than they have facing most teams. They were also trying play up that this is the first time Chris Young has faced his former team. Sure, that’s a narrative, but I don’t think that many people are all that invested in how High Mariner feels about facing the hated Padres for the first time. This isn’t Cano returning to the Bronx territory. One might say that it’s good that Young is pitching at home during this split series, but Petco plays like Safeco anyway so who cares. This is a game being played between two baseball teams. There doesn’t need to be a narrative going in.

Let’s talk about other things. Like how yesterday we played John Buck at first where he had never played professionally before. About how Lloyd said that he was the only option because Ackley was needed in left and I may be the only person who remembers that James Jones has nineteen minor league starts at first (I thought it was more!). About how Jesus Montero appears to never be an option as anything but a DH. About forfeiting that same DH, to get Cano back on the field, so that Jesus Montero does not need to be on the field.

Also, LoMo is back after accidentally injuring himself by transforming his bat into spinning wooden death fragments. When will players learn how unwise it is to take things out on inanimate objects? LoMo got lucky this time, but Tyler O’Neill gets to sit ten weeks for punching a wall and he’s hardly the first. I don’t know why this organization doesn’t do more to instill fear/respect of inanimate objects in their players.

RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
2B Robinson Cano
3B Kyle Seager
DH Jesus Montero
1B Logan Morrison
C Mike Zunino
LF Dustin Ackley
SS Brad Miller

Go ‘Ners!

Podcast: Mariners’ Train Stalls

June 16, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 8 Comments 

Monday morning podcast(s) continues/begins.

Tony Gwynn 🙁

Is not covered in the podcast, but obviously is very sad news. The podcast is Mariners-stuff as usual. We found ourselves surprisingly chipper given the past week. I suppose the Sunday result inordinately affects our podcasting mood.

Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!

Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner work in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated.

Game 69, Rangers at Mariners

June 15, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 26 Comments 

Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Nick Martinez, 1:10 pm

RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
DH Robinson Cano
1B Logan Morrison
3B Kyle Seager
C Mike Zunino
LF Dustin Ackley
2B Willie Bloomquist
SS Brad Miller

Perhaps you didn’t get enough Bloomquist or Endy Chavez last night.

Nick Martinez is another mysterious late-round pick (18th round, 2011) who is now starting for the Rangers. You know who else was an 18th-round pick? Anthony Vasquez. Martinez is somewhat new to the pitching thing after being mostly a shortstop in college. After years in the minor leagues, he worked some things out and ended up throwing in the low-to-mid-90s with a curve ball and a change. This year, he’s gone pretty heavily in the direction of flyball outs and the odds aren’t bad that he’ll leave one high enough to knock out of the park. Of course, whether it’s weather conditions or merely not good baseball players, we haven’t succeeded in doing that much over the recent games.

I don’t really feel like dwelling too much on this game or yesterday’s game or Mariners! so I’ll make note of some minor league news. Ji-man Choi is back in Tacoma, taking over Montero’s spot, and he’s joined by right-handed pitcher and fringe bullpen candidate Stephen Kohlscheen. Logan Bawcom went to the DL to make that spot available. Taijaun Walker had a no-hit bid last night and I would guess that he provides a more appealing option than seeing how many walks Erasmo can give up without allowing a run (the strike zone was a little wonky last night from my vantage and Erasmo seemed to be pitching well by his own standards). McClendon has suggested that Smoak, Hart, and Saunders could all rehab by the end of this week, so, that’s a thing that may happen.

Today in minor league baseball match-ups, we have Forrest Snow starting for Tacoma in Nashville, the sort-of-disappointing overslept sleeper Trevor Miller pitching for Jackson against name-rivals Jacksonville, High Desert has the day off, the pitching Jose Flores we still have starting for Clinton in Peoria, and Ramire Cleto will take the mound for Everett in the lone evening game, pitted against the Hillsboro Hops, the only known competitor to the Montgomery Biscuits for best team name.

Happy Father’s Day.

Game 68, Rangers at Mariners

June 14, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 29 Comments 

Erasmo Ramirez vs. Joe Saunders, 7:10 pm

It’s hard to imagine having anything to say about this particular matchup. Saunders is Saunders. You saw him last year, perhaps too often. He pitches well in Safeco. We could be in trouble. Erasmo Ramirez is familiar with trouble. He’s given up dingers this year, he’s given up walks. Look at the big rates of K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB, everything’s increasing. This has been your afternoon summary of Fangraphs.

There’s not much you see off physically from Erasmo over his parts of three years in the majors. Stuff remains roughly the same, mile off a fastball, mile onto the slider, a couple miles added to the curve and one more off the change-up. You feel like this is within the margin of error for velocity. But the whole package has been terrible and the individual pitches have been terrible, except for the change-up, which has been not terrible, but not especially good either. For all the talk of in spring training, how McClendon wanted Erasmo to not live in the zone as much and to make quality pitches outside of it, his O-Swing% is at an all time low and for the first time, below league average.

I’ve thought about Erasmo lately probably more than I’d recommend and it seems like there is a line to be drawn between physically and psychologically off. I don’t know where he falls on it either. I’ve thought with the perceived loss of command, the elbow could be wrong in some way he isn’t telling the team staff. When I think about such scenarios, it seems possible to physically force your way through something like that. Plenty of hikes, I’ve come to the end wobbly and dragged myself to a resting spot. It seems like people who do these things, these physical acts in exchange for paychecks, might also push themselves to that limit or well beyond the point where the rest of us tucker out.

Of course, I’ve also thought that because I force myself to get to the end of that hike, the summit or just an appropriate vantage plateau, that forcing yourself to do something physical is easier in some ways. The body is after all just a body, and you’ll probably regret it until the pain goes away, but so be it [I have the luxury of saying such things as a younger man, who despite this has been dealing with a stress fracture for over a year]. Much easier than say, writing, where it’s harder to power your way through because inevitably you have results to account for and no one likes to throw away work. You could spend hours at it and get nothing, or reach the apex of your present powers only to discover later that even that in and of itself was not very good and the whole project ought to be abandoned or re-appropriated bit by bit. As this happens, and the work frustrates, and inspiration is wandering far fields, it can be harder to sit down and do it. But what about when the results you care about are the physical acts? Now things start to blur. I can care less about the results of hiking or what have you because my livelihood and my sense of self-worth aren’t contingent on it. If they were, I would be talking about it very differently.

Erasmo Ramirez is a pitcher at the highest level. He hasn’t been able to execute on things that he’s been able to do much of his adult life. He’s been told to try different things. These haven’t succeeded. He’s presumably tried other things in response. Is he blocking? Is he too damaged physically to do what he’s supposed to be doing? Was he never all that good to begin with, or does he lack whatever external factor that separates those with talent from those with craft? I don’t know that it’s any one thing right now, but it always just ends up as a combination of variables anyway, some bigger than others.

I’ll be at the game tonight because my dad and stepmom like to buy me tickets once a year and it usually falls on a bad pitching match-up. So I’ll be sitting there, watching a pitcher make some good and some bad pitches, and be thinking about life and the fact that Erasmo Ramirez could be a metaphor and also definitely is a real person. Not like that Jesus Montero guy. Go ‘Ners.

CF James Jones
LF Cole Gillespie
2B Robinson Cano
DH Jesus Montero
1B Logan Morrison
C John Buck
3B Kyle Seager
RF Stefen Romero
SS Willie Bloomquist

The Mariners And Jason Hammel

June 14, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 6 Comments 

Lately, a couple things have been plainly obvious. One, the Mariners are still very much alive in the playoff race. Two, the Mariners could badly use some help. With that in mind, a note of interest, from Gordon Wittenmyer:

Sources say the Cubs already have had trade talks with multiple teams regarding Samardzija and right-hander Jason Hammel. The Braves, Mariners and Blue Jays are among the most interested, with one source suggesting offers already have been made by at least two teams.

And one major-league source said he expects Hammel to end up in Seattle.

At first look, Hammel is a curious target. He’s a career .115 hitter, with only one home run, and he hasn’t played the outfield or infield professionally. Back in high school, he almost opted to play soccer, so it’s not like he has a track record anywhere of being a successful position player. But at 6’6, 225, he definitely has the frame of a guy who can swing with real leverage, so maybe this would be a scouting move.

Yeah, so, Jason Hammel isn’t a hitter. The Mariners have been most hard up for hitters. Hammel’s a starting pitcher, and the Mariners have been okay in that department. The natural initial response is, “THIS ISN’T ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM, MORONS.” But, it would address the problem of the Mariners not having enough talent. And also, turns out teams aren’t limited to making only one move. The market, right now, has pitching available. Not so much hitting. With the second wild card, there aren’t many teams behaving like they’re out of the race. Those who are out of the race aren’t dealing with a surplus of bats. You can only acquire that which is made acquirable.

Some things about Hammel: he’s 31. Right-handed. One-year contract, modest salary. Went to high school in Port Orchard! But he’s five years younger than Willie Ballgame. He’s had a pretty good year to date. Some rankings:

ERA-: 16th out of 99 qualified starters
FIP-: 20th
xFIP-: 37th

Hammel, this year, has been good. Hammel, last year, was bad. Hammel, the year before, was good. The rest of the way, Jason Hammel should be either good or bad, or okay.

Something I didn’t know is the Mariners actually drafted Hammel in 2000. He didn’t sign, but the players who did sign went on to accomplish fuck-all. All the players the Mariners drafted that year have combined to post 8.7 major-league WAR. Of that, Jason Hammel is individually responsible for 8.7 major-league WAR. In the 34th round, the Mariners drafted a right-handed high-school pitcher named Chris Way. In the 35th round, the Mariners drafted a different right-handed high-school pitcher named Chris Way. On that basis it seems evident the baseball draft needn’t continue beyond the 33rd round.

The idea behind adding a pitcher would be this: simply, you can never have enough starting pitching. Really, I kind of embrace the idea, because the Mariners could act like they’re comfortable if they wanted to. Felix and Iwakuma, obviously, are good. Elias has been a surprise and Young has maintained a low ERA, and Walker is close while Paxton is back to throwing. The Mariners could try to justify standing pat, but, think about it. Right now they’re starting Erasmo Ramirez, and they don’t want to be doing that. Elias, professionally, hasn’t exceeded 148 innings, and Young’s ERA is at least to some extent a mirage. Walker’s been close before, and he has yet to appear this season. Paxton recently had a setback in his shoulder. If you don’t think there’s room for a starting pitcher, you are the most positive-thinking person in the world, and the most positive-thinking person in the world wouldn’t root for the Mariners, so you don’t exist. Obviously, Hammel could fit. He’d presumably help. In the best-case scenario of having too many good starters, the Mariners could nervously wring their hands all the way into October.

But what would an addition like Hammel cost? Remember, one-year contract, with an inconsistent track record. Helpfully, the Cubs have done this before. A year ago, the Cubs exchanged Scott Feldman for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and some international spending money. The year before, the Cubs exchanged Paul Maholm for Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino. In both instances, the pitchers were accompanied by role players, but this conveys the idea. Arrieta was a talented project. Vizcaino was a talented project. The Cubs targeted former good pitching prospects who’d lost some of their sheen. What would that look like, here? Erasmo Ramirez? Brandon Maurer? Danny Hultzen? Maybe the Cubs would look for something else, but Hammel would cost something of possible long-term value. When you sell a guy like Jason Hammel, you can get something you actually want, beyond salary relief.

Perhaps the bigger question is this: should the Mariners even be in the market for upgrades? Should the Mariners even think about giving up long-term value for shorter-term value? They have about a 4-5% chance of winning the division. They’re within a couple games of the wild card, but even the Astros are only 5.5 back. The wild card plays a one-game playoff, meaning it could be one and done. No matter how you play with the numbers, the Mariners are more likely to miss the playoffs than they are to make them. How much do you give up to improve that kind of team, given that realistic improvements can’t adjust the odds all that significantly?

It’s not the kind of question that’s easy to answer with numbers. On the one hand, the Mariners aren’t very good. On the other hand, you don’t have to be very good to win the wild card, and the Mariners are in that sweet spot, or thereabouts, on the win curve, where additional wins have tremendous value. So there are different ways to argue this. Based purely on feel, the Mariners shouldn’t sell out to make a major splash, like David Price or Jeff Samardzija. But with more minor parts, right now I’m okay with the idea of losing potential future help. I could probably rationalize a Jason Hammel trade package. I’d have more difficulty rationalizing a Jon Lester or James Shields trade package. Assuming, of course, the returns would be wildly different.

In theory, things could pick up soon — the Cubs moved Feldman last year on July 2. It’s exciting to have the Mariners relevant, and it’s exciting to be able to think about midseason upgrades. It’s also positively terrifying, but it’s a new and unfamiliar kind of terror, and, whatever gets your heart racing, right? If the Mariners wanted to make this easy on themselves, they could extend this current losing streak. So, that’s one option. It’s not the best option for the long-term, maybe.

Mariners, Felix Achieve Inevitable Destiny

June 13, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 6 Comments 

Wins and losses, obviously, are bad metrics for individual pitchers, but they do manage to capture something. It’s not like they’re completely independent of the signal. If you allow six runs, you probably deserve to lose. If you allow four or five, in this day and age, the same might apply. But as the runs allowed are reduced, losses remain possible, but they’re a hell of a lot more difficult to justify. A guy gave up a two-run homer? And that’s it? Shouldn’t have done that, but a loss seems harsh. One run? That’s severe. One run isn’t on the pitcher. One run is on the non-pitchers. Felix, in his career, has been saddled with a number of harsh losses, to say nothing of the no-decisions. But here’s how he lost tonight:

Top of 9th

  • out
  • groundball single
  • runner steals on bad throw
  • walk, runner moves to 3rd as ball gets away from catcher
  • [relieved by Fernando Rodney]
  • run-scoring fielder’s choice

It’s impossible to get a loss allowing zero runs. As you approach the most extreme possible loss, you get to the loss being extremely unjustifiable. Above is the run that lost the game, in the final inning, and it scored after Felix had been removed. Finally, Felix Hernandez has been given a loss in a game in which he personally allowed no runs. It feels like we’ve been building to this. All along, this has been the inevitability, and in this specific regard, this might be the floor. I guess technically the floor would be Felix losing after leaving a runner on first in the ninth with two outs. Any maybe the runner reaches on a dropped third strike, or an error? I don’t know exactly how these things work. It would be possible for Felix to get stuck with a worse loss, but this is arguably the worst yet. It’s arguably the most nuts. Because this happened on a Friday night, it’s kind of hidden, but this was classic Mariners in that they achieved a new level of misery. They’ve always been creative.

But, you just have to tip your cap to a guy like Nick Tepesch. Today I learned how his name is pronounced.

I’m not going to pretend like this was Felix at his best. This was just Felix being really outstandingly good. I’m also not going to pretend like I deeply care about pitcher wins and losses, but I do deeply care about Felix and when things don’t go his way, things generally also don’t go the Mariners’ way, and those wins are important. This makes 37 times Felix has started a game, allowed no more than one run, and not gotten a win. In that stat he’s the leader among active pitchers. Felix is 28.

It’s interesting — three times this year, the Mariners have scored double-digit runs. All three of those games were Felix starts. This year he hasn’t been totally lacking in support, but it takes a while to forget the past, and tonight felt more familiar and tragic. Tonight, and Felix’s last start, reset the meter. We’re back to operating under the assumption that Felix can’t get support. Maybe it’s him. Maybe that’s bad for his WAR.

Stepping back a little, do you know where the Mariners’ offense stands now after tonight? As a unit, they have an 83 wRC+, where 100 is average and 99 is worse than average. In baseball history, teams with offenses that bad have averaged 66 wins. At times this team has felt like magic, and that’s in large part because it’s been featuring a 66-win offense. Not a 66-WAR offense. The offense of a 66-win team. That’s a 66-win offense plus Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma and Roenis Elias and so on, but even $240 million hasn’t made this group acceptable. Last year’s offense was 8% worse than average. That’s the best the Mariners have been since 2007. All it took was a complete and utter sacrifice of fielding. Kind of like 2007.

In one way, the Mariners and Felix did something they’d never before done. In a more general way, they did something they’ve become known for. Submit this game to memory. I mean, I know it’s already in there, blended with all the others, but make a note of this game. Record the re-airing of this game and keep it on your DVR into the winter. When it’s cold and raining and you’re stuck inside and you’re missing having baseball on the TV, watch this, from the start, and get to the end. This is what the baseball experience is like. And sometimes you have the balls to miss this? I know, you’re right, baseball is about the journey and not the individual daily battles, but I’m not going to bed tonight thankful that I got to watch my favorite pros, thankful that I got to participate in the nationwide dialogue. I’m going to bed tonight thinking about the embarrassment of having and playing Endy Chavez. The Mariners can make the regular season a thing to endure. In no January will I ever wish that I could watch this game.

We always want for baseball to be Type 1 fun. We’re often left in the position of having to claim it’s been Type 2 fun. I’m increasingly of the belief it’s commonly Type 3 fun, and we just don’t recognize it as such because it can make us forget what fun is. Fun is what watching Felix is supposed to be. Fun is what watching Felix is, some of the time. The rest of the time, the game sucks and it never starts to not suck upon reflection. Just because you can joke about something doesn’t mean it’s fun in retrospect. It means you can be creative with jokes. Having survived something doesn’t automatically classify that something as enjoyable.

The good news is the Mariners still have more wins than losses. The good news is Felix knows how to deal with these things by now. The good news is we’re sufficiently privileged to be in a position of being able to be pissed off at a baseball team. The good news is tomorrow the Mariners face Joe Saunders, and the next Felix Day isn’t all that far off. But sometimes good news ends up not-so-good news. Sometimes, the news is delivered by the Mariners.

Statcast Analyzes Recent Mariners History

June 13, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 6 Comments 

Say hello to Statcast. It’s already amazing, and it’s not even released yet. They’re still working out a lot of bugs and whatnot, and if we’re ever granted much access, it’ll be months or years down the road. But every so often, they have been releasing teaser example videos of play analysis. And, as it turns out, this has been in the works for a while, and the Mariners have had several somewhat recent plays captured. I’m just here to pass those on to you.

PLAY

Analysis

cruzhomer

PLAY

Analysis

monterotriple

PLAY

Analysis

ackleydouble

PLAY

Analysis

cameronrobs

PLAY

Analysis

noesipitch

PLAY

Analysis

noesipitch2

PLAY

Analysis

ibanezthrow

Justin Smoak vs. An Old Sofa

June 13, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 13 Comments 

Recently I’ve been spending time sitting on my old sofa, and I’ve thought about how an old sofa is kind of like Justin Smoak. I know now isn’t the perfect time to pick on Smoak, since he can’t unknowingly defend himself, but on the other hand his being on the DL also means he can’t make me look stupid for at least another couple weeks. Always look out for number one. A compare/contrast follows.

=====

How Justin Smoak is like an old sofa

(1) Justin Smoak isn’t perfect, or good, or desirable in almost any way, but he’s forever just shy of reaching the action threshold, at which you actually take steps to identify and obtain a replacement.

(2) We have a certain number of fond memories involving Justin Smoak.

(3) Justin Smoak was exciting when first acquired and installed.

(4) Justin Smoak fits in most elevators.

(5) Justin Smoak has been steadily, unmistakeably depreciating.

(6) Justin Smoak gets sat on, figuratively.

(7) Over time, Justin Smoak’s physical changes have been subtle.

(8) In a pinch, you can wipe your hands on Justin Smoak.

(9) Justin Smoak has a skeletal frame and a soft, thin outer later that protects and contains the more loose and vulnerable inner bits.

(10) Justin Smoak can catch a baseball thrown right at him.

=====

How Justin Smoak is not like an old sofa

(1) Justin Smoak has two legs.*

* – some old sofas might have two legs

(2) Justin Smoak cannot be legally sold on the Internet.

(3) Some people continue to believe Justin Smoak will get better over time.

(4) An old sofa puts butts in seats.

(5) An old sofa gets sat on, literally.

(6) Justin Smoak doesn’t smell of farts and stale hard pretzels(?).

(7) Justin Smoak doesn’t/shouldn’t get vacuumed.

(8) Justin Smoak has a driver’s license.

(9) Justin Smoak is of at least occasional use on two different sides.

(10) Justin Smoak has a career WAR below 0.

Game 67, Rangers at Mariners

June 13, 2014 · Filed Under Mariners · 15 Comments 

Felix Hernandez vs. Nick Tepesch, 7:10 pm

Happy Felix Day.

Today’s test of how closely I’ve been paying attention informs me that Nick Tepesch threw nearly a hundred innings last year, whereas I only know him from the most recent start against us. Unlike Whitley yesterday, I can actually find info on Tepesch in my BA Prospect Handbook from a few years back. To add to the general knowledge of him, he wanted seven figures as a HS draft pick and was expected to turn himself into a first-round pick at Missouri, which he plainly didn’t. Such things happen. Like with Kevin Cron, who wouldn’t sign with us in the third round and then drifted to the 14th round out of college, the same round Tepesch was selected in years prior. Suckersssssss.

Tepesch’s profile seems to have switched around a bit since last season. He’s lost about a mile and a half off of all of his pitches and has gone from a pitcher with an above-average groundball rate to one who gets a lot of infield pop ups. He’s also walked more, struck out fewer, and hasn’t been good generally, so don’t think that lost velocity means increased command. It doesn’t! He got knocked around by Cleveland last time out and by the Nationals the time before, but I think that the Mariners have too often felt like a team you could bounce back against. Maybe even turn it into a little three-game win streak.

Last night’s game was frustrating as the Mariners collectively had Justin Smoak-power. I kept listening all through because it seemed like something was going to happen and Rizzs even had me convinced on the Cano non-homer. When you give up contact that hard, it feels more likely that something’s going to happen.

It got me thinking about margins of victory and loss and how I’ve been a skosh more invested in (and considerably more optimistic about) the team this season, what with more of the rotation being actually watchable. Here’s what I’ve got for you on number crunching coming into today:

Win, 4 or More Runs: 13 (opening series had three of those)
Win, 3 Runs: 3
Win, 2 Runs: 12
Win, 1 Run: 6
Loss, 1 Run: 9
Loss, 2 Runs: 9
Loss, 3 Runs: 7
Loss, 4 or More Runs: 7

It took until April 25th for us to win a one-run game and prior to that it had only been 4+ or two as margins of victory. Fun.

The data corroborate with my original feelings/sentiments. If you take a non-save situation as the baseline for a blow out, then we’ve blown out teams almost twice as often as opponents have done it to us. Even without the first Angels series, our advantage is pretty solid there. Where we really have gotten in trouble in our losses are the one- and two-run games which we’re still effectively “in.” Given that information, I don’t feel like it’s all that surprising that the Mariners are being considered buyers right now, but in the overall reckoning I tend to agree with Matthew and Jeff. What, in the way of external options, would be worth it for what we would have to give up? It looks as if we could pick up a lot of wins merely with incremental improvements. We just need to have a back-up ready once the Chris Young fairy dust wears off.

Here’s some cool unrelated stuff on Alex Jackson negotiations.

CF James Jones
3B Kyle Seager
2B Robinson Cano
1B Logan Morrison
DH Stefen Romero
LF Dustin Ackley
C Mike Zunino
SS Brad Miller
RF Cole Gillespie

Welcome Logan Morrison, to the “somebody has to bat cleanup” parade.

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