Baseball Mitosis Allows M’s to Face White Sox AND Diamondbacks
Split Squad –
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Josh Collmenter 12:05pm, 710am radio
Jordan Pries vs. Hector Noesi 12:05pm
The M’s first split-squad game allows both Brad Miller and Chris Taylor to get some reps at SS, but other than that, there’s just not much the M’s need to learn this spring. For the prospects, there are generally more questions, as level, position and balancing line-ups come into play. But the clarity at the top of the M’s seems like it extends at least as far as AAA Tacoma, where DJ Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan can both see time thanks to Kivlehan’s willingness to get some work in in an OF corner.
RHP Jordan Pries, who takes on the Sox and our old friend Hector Noesi, spent 2014 last year and is essentially guaranteed another season there this year. The former 30th round pick was an early-April call-up to AAA and cemented his place in the rotation by giving up one run or less in six of his first seven starts for the Rainiers. Without big time velo or great pure stuff, the smallish righty used deception and guile to navigate the treacherous PCL. Through May he had a combined RA (including his two starts for Jackson), and was excellent through July. While he tired down the stretch, he did enough to be named the M’s minor league pitcher of the year and open a lot of eyes.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s healthy this spring, which could pay dividends later in the year. The righty told Bob Dutton that while the finger injury he suffered last February didn’t affect his play, missing spring training was the primary cause of his late-season struggles. He’ll face D-backs righty Josh Collmenter, the ex-15th round draft pick who breezed through the minors thanks to a funky straight-over-the-top delivery. Without much in the way of pure stuff, some thought he’d be figured out once big league hitters adjusted to him. Collmenter’s now logged over 500 innings, and while he’s never going to be a star, he’s been worth over 6 fWAR to the D-backs both from the rotation and out of the bullpen. Not bad for a right-hander with a fastball that clocks in at 86. After spending all of 2013 in the pen, and 2014 split between the two roles, it sounds like he’s slotted in to the rotation this year.
A prion is a protein molecule that’s somehow mis-folded, and which, when it replicates, creates long fibrils that form plaques that disrupt or destroy healthy tissue. They are transmissable, and can essentially turn normal, healthy proteins into misshapen disease agents. They’re the cause of some truly nasty, incurable disease of the brain, like Creutzfeld-Jakob’s disease (Mad Cow disease). Like a prion, Hector Noesi looks like a normal, helpful member of a pitching staff. He’s got solid velocity, some interesting movement on his sinker, and an array of decent offspeed pitches. Whatever the reason, a slight mis-alignment caused extensive damage to his host (the M’s), and despite the best efforts of a series of pitching coaches, Noesi remained a stubbornly effective win-destroyer throughout his M’s tenure. Noesi then became transmissable, first infecting the Rangers, who succumbed frighteningly quickly. He moved to the White Sox soon after, and while the south siders struggled with the effects of the encephalitis-like symptoms Noesi creates, they seemed to reach a bizarre kind of equilibrium. The White Sox incorporated the pathogen into its system and somehow directed it back against the M’s as a weapon, the way a Komodo Dragon uses powerful microbes in its mouth to kill prey. Noesi appeared in four games against Seattle, throwing 18 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run. Against the Rangers, he made a single start, going 7 IP, and giving up just 1R on 4H. Perhaps the most terrifying aspect of prions is that they can’t be stopped – medical science seems to learn more about they progress and how they leap from animal to animal, but that hasn’t helped come up with a game plan of how to slow or reverse their terrible, brain-destroying progress. Similarly, it seems reductive to say that Noesi’s success against the M’s is another Don Cooper special. Anyone who’s watched him for long knows that Noesi is virulent, and that he produces strong neurological reactions. Perhaps it’s for the best that today’s contest isn’t on tv.
Game vs. AZ line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Weeks, LF
6: Peterson, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Kivlehan, 3B
9: Taylor, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Game vs. CHW:
1: Marte, 2B
2: Ruggiano, RF
3: Gutierrez, CF
4: Seager, DH
5: Morrison, 1B
6: Rivero, 3B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Baker, C
SP: Pries
I’m not saying you can pin the Rangers staggering string of injuries on that ill-fated waiver claim on Hector Noesi, especially because Jurickson Profar went down before Noesi got there. Still, with the news that Yu Darvish has an elbow injury that could, COULD, mean TJ surgery, it’s possible that the Noesi virus spread quickly in an immuno-compromised host. The Rangers are a divisional rival, and I don’t want them to return to the all-conquering colossus they appeared to be back in 2011-2013 with a great young line-up, an elite minor league system and a smart GM. But we’re at the point where I feel legitimately bad for them, and I’d hate to see Darvish out for the year. They were always going to struggle to win 80 this year, but without Darvish, they look lost. A top three of Darvish, Holland and Gallardo was better – at least on paper – than anyone in the division save perhaps Seattle, but the depth dropped off quickly after that. Take out Darvish and the team starts to look more like last year’s throw-25-guys-at-the-wall-and-see-who-sticks disaster. Get well soon, Yu.
Danny Hultzen’s progress continues, as he’ll throw live BP today. No word on when he might appear in a game. Felix will appear in a game on Tuesday, not Wednesday as previously reported.
The Royals made a pair of interesting ex-Mariner signings in recent days. First, they picked up 1B Casey Kotchman, who didn’t play at all in 2014. Today, they signed magical giant RHP Chris Young to a one-year deal. It’s actually kind of remarkable how long Young was on the market given his success last year and reasonable health (hat tip: Ryan Divish).
Practice Game 3, M’s at Dodgers
Erasmo Ramirez vs. David Huff, 12:05pm, 710am radio
Erasmo Ramirez enters camp at 24, with 35 big league starts under his belt and a very uncertain future. Bob Dutton’s piece details it well – his struggles over the past two years resulting in minor league stints that burned his options and leave him entering the 2015 without a lot of hope for a roster spot in Seattle. Ramirez isn’t pitching to make the team, but he’s pitching to make A team. As a long-time Ramirez fan, this is disappointing, but it’s hard to argue the M’s have misused the Nicaraguan. Instead, he’s been undone by the failure of his breaking balls to develop (curve and slider), nagging injuries that probably torpedoed his 2013, and mental lapses that he’s perfectly willing to cop to in that interview with Dutton. He’s 24, has a plus change-up, sneaky-good velocity, and declining results. With the M’s rotation and bullpen all but set, it seems inevitable that someone will land a cheap, young starter this spring. If they can iron a few things out, they’re going to get some value out of him. The M’s are simply at a point on the win curve where they can’t be sentimental, and they can’t think about “value” in the abstract. If Elias and/or Walker give them more chances to win games in 2015, then Erasmo will move on.
David Huff has bounced around to several teams recently after coming up in that interesting mid-2000s glut of Indians starters who had low K-rates and tried to manage contact – while Minnesota was obsessed with this profile, Cleveland dabbled before moving on to Salazar/Kluber/Carrasco-style nuclear-grade stuff. Huff had some surface similarity to Erasmo, at least early on. Huff’s a lefty, but moved quickly through the ranks thanks to a good change-up and low walk rates. Like Erasmo, the super-low walk rates didn’t follow him to the majors, and a new problem emerged: home runs. Unlike Ramirez, though, Huff’s biggest challenge was that his primary weapon – a change thrown around 81-83 – wasn’t good enough to dominate MLB hitters. In his career, batters have hit .300 with a .500 SLG% off of Huff’s change. They hit his fastball too; if they can identify a change-up on its way, then they were clearly capable of recognizing a non-change. While he’d have some success now and again out of the bullpen, that says a lot more about Huff’s role than it does about Huff.
Last year, though, he made a pretty big adjustment. He’ll still throw the cambio, but it’s in a supporting role now, thrown to RHBs only. Instead, he developed a cutter and throws that 30% of the time, about the same as he used to throw the change. He’d been using a few more cutters early on in a disastrous two-month stint with the Giants, but changed his approach markedly after the Yankees picked him up on waivers in mid June. From then on, he was excellent, albeit in a tiny, tiny sample. In every previous year, he’d shown reverse platoon splits, but last year, he was actually effective against lefties. He’s signed a MiLB deal with the Dodgers, and given his success with the Yanks, he may be looking for a bullpen job, but he’ll get the start today to see if the cutter can help him manage his long-standing problems with homers, and if he can maintain his improvement against LHBs without letting righties force him into the ever-crowded pool of potential LOOGYs.
1: Ruggiano, CF
2: Weeks, LF
3: Gutierrez, DH
4: Montero, 1B
5: Peterson, 3B
6: Romero, RF
7: Bloomquist, 2B
8: Taylor, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Erasmo Ramirez
LHP Edgar Olmos is back in camp today, after MLB voided the Rangers’ waiver claim on him. He’s the reliever the M’s got from the Marlins, then lost to Texas on waivers. When he showed up at Rangers’ camp, they detected a problem in his shoulder – an impingement of some sort. So, they complained to MLB, and MLB agreed that the M’s had sold on defective goods, so un-did the waiver claim, returning Olmos to the M’s 40-man roster. Because life, and baseball, can often be impossibly cruel, the M’s responded by DFA’ing 1B Ji-Man Choi, fresh off of his surgery to repair his femur. The Rangers eventually FOUND a left-handed reliever who isn’t damaged (yet) when they signed Joe Beimel to a one-year deal. This has been a depressing update.
Game 2: Padres at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Andrew Cashner, 12:05pm, Root TV/710am
One game in, and the M’s suffered their first serious injury, as 1B Ji-Man Choi broke his fibula trying to snare an errant throw from SS Tyler Smith. Choi’s been beset by serious injuries for years, but I don’t think even Chris Snelling would’ve broken a fibula by jumping.* It’s a reminder that 1) health is a tool, and 2) baseball is relentless in the way that it exposes every bodily weakness and exploits them. Franklin Gutierrez knows the feeling. Get well soon, Ji-Man.
Today’s game features something quite like the opening day line-up and the other candidate for the 5th starter job, Roenis Elias. Taijuan Walker had a solid start against the Padres, and Ryan Divish had a good story about his mechanics (simplified, and using the stretch even without men on) and his improving split-change. The M’s face big righty Andrew Cashner, still one of the hardest-throwing starters in the league, though not quite the 99mph monster he was when he first moved from the Cubs to the Padres. At that time, he relied on his huge four-seamer, and paired it with a slider and change-up. Since then, he’s switched to a still-plenty-fast sinker as his primary fastball. Despite the radar gun readings, Cashner struggled both with his control and, more recently (and surprisingly), with contact. Batters now make more contact against him than average, and thus his K rate’s been below average in the rotation. That said, he’s become an effective pitcher thanks to solid ground ball rates and some new-found control.
Against righties, he’s a essentially a pitch-to-contact sinkerball machine, with very low walk rates and sky-high ground ball rates. If you limit fly balls, and then have a home park that minimizes the damage that the occasional fly ball can do, you can be a pretty effective pitcher. In addition, his mid-upper 90s velocity means the contact he gives up is generally poorer than that yielded by a more traditional, late-period-Derek-Lowe style sinkerball hurler. It’s worth noting, though, that he’s very different against lefties. Against lefties, he’ll throw more change-ups and chase strikeouts, at the expense of some extra walks. Unlike righties, lefties tend to hit the ball in the air. Part of this is due to the way Cashner pitches them – a steady diet of sinkers away. That can produce opposite-field fly balls, and for whatever reason, lefties are able to elevate the few pitches that Cashner throws inside or up. The M’s will throw six lefty hitters at Cashner, so we’ll see if they’re able to drive the ball.
Roenis Elias was one of the best stories of camp last year, making the team out of nowhere thanks to a funky delivery and good velocity from the left side. Last year, the M’s seemed concerned about the lack of consistency in Elias’ release point. Against lefties, he’d drop way down at times, and stay upright against righties. So, we got a story or two about picking a release point and sticking with it near the end of March 2014, but there wasn’t a whole lot of evidence that Elias listened. Even late in the year, you’d see two or three distinct groupings for his pitches, and why not? He’d been far more effective than any of us thought possible, and his ability to neutralize lefties was a big part of the reason why. In this respect, he’s a lot like the Padres’ own Cuban 5th starter, righty Odrisamer Despaigne, who used several release angles and odd pitches to destroy righties in 2014.
Today’s line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Elias
The Padres line-up includes Abe Almonte, the opening day CF for the M’s last year while Seth Smith was in the opening day line-up for the Friars in 2014.
* Snelling would’ve torn ligaments instead.
So it Begins: M’s vs. Padres
Tai Walker vs. Jason Lane, 12:00pm, Root TV
As Jeff mentioned here, and then in more depth at Fangraphs today, the M’s are projected to be one of the AL’s elite teams in 2015. While they’re not prohibitive favorites, the projection systems generally have them as the best team in the AL West on paper. This makes some sense – as we’ve talked about before, the story of the offseason was Oakland’s makeover which may set them up well in future years, but clearly comes at a cost of 2015 wins. The Rangers went from perennial contender to an awkward semi-rebuild, and their playoff chances have dropped more than any other team’s over the past year. The Angels were a balanced team in 2014, but injuries, aging, and, uh, Josh Hamilton have taken their toll. Meanwhile, the M’s have made several low-key moves aimed at covering some of their glaring weaknesses from last year. Because of the *way* they did so – largely by learning to love the platoon – there’s really not a whole lot to compete for as the Cactus League season begins. The M’s – and M’s fans – aren’t looking for surprises or breakouts. We’re rooting against news.
How lucky, then, that we kick things off with a game that doesn’t even count towards the actual Cactus League standings. It’s semi-ludicrous that ANYTHING can “count” in that context, but we’ll get to that tomorrow. Today, the M’s send out a split squad line-up and Taijuan Walker to take on the intra-building rivals, the San Diego Padres. The Pads are clearly taking this pretty seriously, as they’re starting former big league OF Jason Lane. Lane’s a familiar face to those of us who follow the PCL, as he’s been in the league for many years, essentially always as a position player, but who inevitably got called on to pitch in blowouts. Since focusing more on pitching, his FB’s up to around 88, and he’s got a surprisingly decent change-up.
Walker’s the one guy who one can argue is playing for a job this spring. I think the M’s want him in the rotation, even if that means sending one of last year’s big suprises, Roenis Elias, to Tacoma as depth. The story of Walker’s spring has been a change in his repertoire. While many scouts (and Fangraphs) ID’d his cutter as his #1 breaking ball, it’s always been hit and miss. I think I’ve always seen more of the latter than the former, and his overall stats show that he struggled to command the pitch. Thus, it’s not a huge shock that he’s scrapping it in favor of a true slider – taking a few MPH off, but getting more break and depth. To be clear: this isn’t about needing to improve against same-handed batters. He’s been great against them thus far. That said, a slider’s a good weapon against righties, and he’s still got his big curve and a developing split-change to use against lefties.
The line-up:
1: Jones, CF
2: Taylor, SS
3: Peterson, DH
4: Montero, 1B
5: Romero, LF
6: Rivero, 3B
7: Morban, RF
8: Hicks, C
9: Marte, 2B
SP: Walker
Baseball!