Podcast: The Mariners are in First Place!
Back to just one podcast this weekend, but it is a Mariners-leading-AL-West sort of podcast! Woooo
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
Game 6, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Jesse Hahn, 1:05pm
Much different feeling today, after the M’s – behind their #5 guy – take down the A’s and their ace, Sonny Gray. Sure, there are still plenty of things to be worried about. The bullpen coughed up a late lead, the line-up looked flummoxed most of the day against Gray, and Happ was left in too long in the 7th. But at least there are some pretty big positives outweighing them – Nelson Cruz looked solid, and put together some decent at-bats even before his big 3R homer turned the game around. Brad Miller made a great play to save the team in the 10th, and then hit a game-winning double off of a tough lefty in the 11th. Mike Zunino *walked*. JA Happ was effective throughout, averaging 93 on his four-seamer. Still a few too many sinkers for my liking, but he used the four-seamer most of the time, and it was an effective outing overall.
Today, Felix gets his second start of the year, taking on the A’s and RHP Jesse Hahn. Hahn came over from San Diego in one of AJ Preller’s innumerable trades. The one-time Rays prospect had a great debut with San Diego, throwing 73 IP with a very good K rate, and a park-aided but still impressive HR rate thanks in part to a 50% GB rate. Hahn throws a four- and two-seam fastball at 93-94, with a curve as his primary breaking ball. He’s also got a change-up and a very rare slider. His platoon splits were on the low end of normal, with lefties hitting for more power and fewer strikeouts, but taking fewer walks. That’s going to be something to watch as Hahn transitions to the AL; last year, he faced exactly the same number of righties and lefties on the year. In his first AL West start five days ago, 17 of the 26 batters he faced were lefties.
Hahn typically threw a four-seamer to righties, and used his sinker against lefties, with everyone getting around 25% curve balls. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes in Oakland, following the noticeable shifts they made in the pitch mix for guys like Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Chavez. Against Texas, Hahn threw more four-seamers, including against lefties. It was one start, so it’s tough to know if that was a clear change of approach, something in the scouting report or both.
Today’s line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Felix.
The Rainiers beat El Paso 10-2 last night behind HRs from Carlos Rivero and Franklin Gutierrez, but perhaps the story of the night was the return of SS Chris Taylor. Taylor’s rehabbing from that broken wrist he suffered on a HBP in the spring, and went 1-3 with a double before giving way to Leury Bonilla. The Rainiers knocked around San Diego prospect Robbie Erlin, the one-time Rangers prospect who moved to San Diego in exchange for reliever Mike Adams a few years back. Erlin suffered an elbow injury last year, but avoided TJ surgery. He’s bounced up and down between AAA and the Pads, but will need to show he can stay healthy this season. LHP Sam Gaviglio was solid in his M’s org debut, throwing five scoreless innings on 5H and 2BBs; he struck out 3 Chihuahuas. Mike Kickham starts today for Tacoma in El Paso – gametime’s 12:05. The lefty’s game looks a bit like his one-time teammate Madison Bumgarner, in that Kickham uses a fastball around 90-91, and a blizzard of sliders that he’ll throw to lefties and righties alike. While platoon splits haven’t really been an issue for him in the minors, righties have torched him in his short big league stints in 2013 and 2014 – Kickham’s RA/9 is well over 11.
South African control artist Dylan Unsworth makes his 2015 debut today for Jackson against Kendry Flores and the Jacksonville Suns. Flores moved from the Giants to the Marlins org in the Casey McGehee deal this off-season. He was a 10-20th ranked prospect in the Giants org after following a very good 2013 with an up, down and injury plagued 2014. Tyler Pike was so-so in his debut, walking and striking out 3 over 4 2/3 IP. He took the loss after the Generals managed only 1 R against Jacksonville. DJ Peterson has started slowly, going 0-11 with 1 BB thus far.
Caros Misell starts for Bakersfield against Rancho Cucamonga. The 22 year old could use a few good games to open 2014 following a poor year at Clinton in 2014. The Blaze have opened 0-3, with the line-up still struggling in the early going. Dan Altavilla struck out 8 in 5 2/3 yesterday, but took the loss. The Blaze have 10 hits and just 4 runs in total over their first 3 games; the Rainiers have scored 31 runs on 44 hits in three games.
Finally, NC State product Pat Peterson makes his MWL debut today for Clinton. The righty threw 11 solid starts for Pulaski last year, striking out 54 in 49+ innings. The LumberKings swept their DH yesterday, winning 5-4 and 2-1. Alex Jackson went 1-4 with a 2B in the first game, while the pitching of Osmel Morales and Jarrett Brown, a 22nd rounder out of Georgia last year, was the story in the nightcap.
Game 5, Mariners at Athletics
JA Happ vs. Sonny Gray, 1:05pm
Today’s game can’t be worse. So we’ve got that going for us.
JA Happ takes the hill after a shaky spring, but again, if he can embrace fly balls, he’ll find the AL West can be a pretty welcoming place. As I mentioned back in the early spring, it might be a good idea to shelve to the two-seamer he uses occasionally and simplify a bit to a four-seamer, curve and cutter. He’s got a change, but it hasn’t been a great pitch thus far. Might be nice as an occasional pitch to show off, but it’s probably not great as his primary weapon against right-handers.
The A’s send their ace Sonny Gray out for his second start of 2015. In the first, he carried a no-hitter into the 8th against a punchless Rangers team. He’s got an arrow-straight, almost cutter-style four-seam fastball, a sinker that he uses against right-handers, a big curve ball at around 82mph, and an occasional slider and change. With his distinctive four-seamer movement and curveball, his minimal platoon splits shouldn’t be a big surprise. Gray exploded onto the scene with 10 great starts down the stretch in 2013, with a big K rate and low HR rate leading to a FIP of 2.70. Last year, he wasn’t able to sustain that, as his K rate that fell to league average, and a K:BB ratio a touch below that. As a result, his FIP wasn’t as gaudy as it had been, but his ERA was still pretty good. In essence, he took a page from James Paxton’s playbook, managing contact and running absurdly high GB rates for a four-seam hurler to minimize HRs and BABIP. The HR rate thing isn’t just a product of O.co coliseum – in fact, he was much better on the road, and gave up twice as many HRs at home as he did on the road. The biggest worry going forward for Gray was that he seemed to tire down the stretch; his small size resulted in durability concerns that sent him tumbling down the draft board in 2011, from a guy once seen as a top 5 pick down to #18. He’s still a tough, tough match-up for the M’s, but some patience might be rewarded today – run up the pitch count, foul some pitches off, and wait for a grooved FB – despite the results, he threw quite a few mistake pitches in his first game.
Line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Happ
On paper, this looks as unfavorable, as unwatchable, as yesterday’s game was anticipated and favorable. Last night’s game turned out to be a completely digusting mess, so hey, games rarely unfold as they’re ‘supposed’ to. At least the M’s get Seth Smith back, but his groin injury seems like it’s still a factor, as he’ll be DHing today.
Yesterday in the minors, the Rainiers countered the Chihuahuas opening day blow out by scoring 17 runs against the hapless lapdogs, knocking Aaron Northcraft out in the 2nd, and then pouring it on against ex-Rainier Steve Kohlscheen after that. Patrick Kivlehan hit his first AAA HR, but it came against the El Paso 2nd baseman, not an actual pitcher. Franklin Gutierrez continued his hot start with 2 2Bs, and Stefen Romero hit 2 2Bs as well on his way to a 4-6 night. Carlos Rivero was 4-5 with a walk, and hit a HR on opening day. Today marks the org debut for pitcher Sam Gaviglio, who the M’s acquired from St. Louis in exchange for IF Ty Kelly. Gaviglio’s from Ashland, and went to OSU, and utilizes a sinking four-seamer around 88-90 to generate ground balls. He’s also got a slider and a firm change around 84.
Tyler Pike makes his season debut for the Jackson Generals in Jacksonville. One of the minor league stars of 2013, Pike battled serious control problems throughout 2014, and his overall numbers last year were awful as a result. Pike hasn’t shown a lot of bat-missing ability, so dramatically dropping his walk rate is going to be imperative going forward. High Desert undoubtedly impacted him last year, though he fared even worse after a late-season promotion to AA. Still, he’s just 21 and still should have some of the pitchability that scouts raved about in 2013.
Dan Altavilla takes the hill for Bakersfield today. The righty was a 5th round pick out of tiny Mercyhurst college, and spent 2014 in the Everett rotation. The Bakersfield offense hasn’t found their footing yet, as they’ve scored just 3 runs in two games. Ryan Yarbrough was solid last night, giving up 2R in 4IP with 4Ks, but the offense scored just one run, and the Blaze fell to 0-2. The middle of the order, from Timmy Lopes to Tyler O’Neill to Austin Wilson hasn’t clicked yet, but they should soon. Bakersfield’s home park isn’t *quite* as hitter-friendly as High Desert’s, but it’s surprisingly close thanks to its extra cozy dimensions: The CF wall in Bakersfield is an absurd 354 feet from home plate.
Clinton dropped their opener too, despite a solid performance from Daniel Missaki, who went 6IP, giving up 2R on 5H and striking out 5. He left with a 3-2 lead, but the bullpen coughed it up. Alex Jackson was 1-4 with a 2B, and Joe DeCarlo hit a HR for the LumberKings. Clinton’s got a double-header scheduled today, with Tyler Herb – a 29th-rounder last year with a solid K rate across three levels – and intriguing Venezuelan Osmel Morales starting.
Meanwhile, In The AL West
Bummed about the Mariners losing two in a row to the Angels, after a promising opening day? That’s fine! We all are. On the other hand, at least the Mariners aren’t currently doing their damnedest to throw one of their most expensive players under the bus. Hit it, Arte Moreno.
Moreno, asked if he can say Hamilton will play another game with #Angels: “I will not say that.”
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 11, 2015
Moreno says Angels have separate language in Hamilton’s contract vs relapse and they may try to enforce it.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 11, 2015
Kind of scummy, in that the Angels are clearly just trying to rid themselves of a problem contract, without showing any compassion for the player. They knew what they were signing, and they went ahead with it — Moreno and Josh Hamilton shook hands in the introductory press conference. I’ll say this, though: specifically because Hamilton had a known history, it would make sense for the Angels to try to include some protective language, if that’s even allowed. And then, you know, it’s their right to try to enforce it, or anything else, since contracts are contracts. Anything mutually agreed to becomes enforceable at any point. It’s just, sayyyyyy, what’s that?
Arte Moreno: Hamilton contract contains no special language protecting #Angels from relapse, aside from usual MLB drug policy language.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 15, 2012
Oh, I get it, Moreno. You’re a liar! You know, like an asshole! Doesn’t mean he was lying today — could mean he was lying a few years ago. But, it doesn’t get much more black and white than this. Arte Moreno directly contradicted himself, and there’s one thing that’s changed over time — Josh Hamilton’s circumstances. At one point, he was an All-Star outfielder. At another point, he’s a massive disappointment fresh off a relapse. I wonder what might be causing Arte Moreno to treat him differently?
To be truthful, every team in baseball would probably act like this. I mean, not like this, but every team would have interest in voiding a bad contract, if at all possible. The big difference: other teams wouldn’t be doing this in the public arena. The Angels are making themselves look like total pricks, and though that does nothing to improve the Mariners’ odds of winning the 2015 World Series, it’s a kind of schadenfreude. We’re used to our organization being the one that looks stupid and tactless. Now we’re not even the second-worst offender in our own division. How does Arte Moreno sleep at night? On a comfortable bed in a large house, with impossible amounts of money to his name. But, also, he sucks.
Oh, and, before I go, Derek Holland will be out two months with a shoulder injury. On the plus side for the Rangers, Ryan Rua and Shin-Soo Choo were also removed from a game with injuries. Their injuries appear more minor. That is literally the plus side for the Rangers right now. They have injuries that could’ve been worse.
Game 4, Mariners at Athletics
Taijuan Walker vs. Drew Pomeranz, 7:05pm
After a disappointing opening series, the M’s head to Oakland to face a team that’s probably just as disappointed in THEIR opener. The A’s split a four-game series with the Rangers, and while Texas’ line-up includes big names like Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder, they are a *bad* ballclub. A team with a DH whose OBP over the last 2 years and 700 PAs is under .300, a team with question marks in the rotation, and punctuation marks that don’t appear to be english in the bullpen. A team that was forecasted to compete for last place *before* Yu Darvish went down with TJ surgery just took 2 of 4 in Oakland, including yesterday’s 4-HR 10-1 drubbing. My point isn’t that Oakland is suddenly, shockingly bad, just as the M’s aren’t bad because they lost 2 of 3 at home. It’s early, and weird things happen. We should just be happy they happen to other teams/fanbases as well.
Today’s game is a big one, as this is the first real test of Taijuan Walker 2.0. The re-worked mechanics, the pitch adjustments, the confidence he must’ve gained after a spring in which no one could touch him – it’s all put to the test tonight in a pitcher-friendly park. Walker’s a pretty important piece to the M’s in that he can stabilize the rotation a bit, and let depth like Roenis Elias fill other spots as needed, and because his projections were low enough that even a good year from Walker can help pick up the other players who will underperform. As we’ve seen, Walker pitches from the stretch exclusively, and features a live fastball at around 96, a slow curve in the low 70s, and a good split-change around 90. His in-between slider/cutter (slutter?) also comes in at 90, and despite the talk about a change, it looks pretty similar to the pitch he featured in his first call-up back in 2013.
While it’s always tough to rely too much on spring pitch fx numbers thanks to Peoria’s odd calibration, it’s a good sign that despite using the stretch, Walker’s velocity was the same or *higher* than it was in the spring of 2013, when he still used a wind-up. It was higher in the spring than it was in his big league debut in Houston, and higher than his first September start last year. I’m tempted to say that his velocity’s improved the more time passes after his injury, but a lot of it must be conditioning and mechanics. It’ll be something to watch tonight in what I presume will be a chilly April night in Oakland. The A’s were a good team against righties last year with big lefty bats like Brandon Moss and Josh Reddick, but Moss is in Cleveland and Reddick’s injured at the moment. Ben Zobrist is a switch hitter with very even splits, but other than that, Walker will only need to really be careful with Stephen Vogt. The A’s early struggles against righties don’t mean much, but with Reddick out and Ike Davis still playing like, well, Ike Davis, this isn’t a bad match-up for Walker.
Drew Pomeranz is a lefty who, like pretty much every other member of the club, remade himself after joining the A’s. He’d been a top draft pick of the Indians, moving to Colorado in the big Ubaldo Jimenez deal, but as a rising FB/curve ball hurler, he ran into problems in Coors field. He never really developed a change-up, and thus had trouble with right-handed hitters, and because of *that* faced line-ups stacked with right-handed hitters. Upon joining the A’s, he increased the use of his sinker dramatically. It was an afterthought in Colorado, but it’s an important part of his arsenal to righties now. That’s not to say he’s shelved the four-seamer – he’ll still throw it to righties, particularly after they’ve seen the two-seamer. The rising four-seamer probably also helps disguise his curve a bit. Whatever the reason, Pomeranz was suddenly very effective against righties last year, albeit in less than 70 IP as a swingman. The A’s are betting he can keep that up, and the M’s righty line-up will be a decent first test.
Last season, fully 1/4 of Pomeranz’s 20 appearances came against Seattle, and he had 16% of his total IP against the M’s. The M’s couldn’t figure him out, as he gave up 1 run in 11 IP against them, and walked nobody, despite occasional control problems against everyone else. The M’s have obviously re-tooled their line-up, and he’ll be facing Nelson Cruz and Rickie Weeks instead of Stefen Romero, John Buck and Cole Gillespie. That said, Nelson Cruz has fared poorly against curves in his career – he should look to get Pomeranz early, when he uses his sinker. In his career, Cruz is slugging .693 off the nearly 800 lefty sinkers he’s seen.
The line-up:
1: Weeks, LF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Ruggiano, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Bloomquist, SS
SP: Walker
The Rainiers dropped their opener in El Paso by a score of 11-4. Jordan Pries wasn’t sharp, and the relievers weren’t a whole lot better. Carlos Rivero opened the Rainiers account with a HR, but there’s not much more to say about the game. Abe Almonte went 5-5 for the home team, but Mike Curto kept things in perspective. Roenis Elias starts tonight against ex-Braves prospect Aaron Northcraft – game’s at 6:05, tune in to Curto or watch it on MiLB.tv.
Jackson shut-out Jacksonville 2-0 behind the pitching of Steven Landazuri and James Gilheeney. The game was scoreless into the 9th, but the Generals got two runs on RBIs by Gabby Guerrero and Jabari Henry. Today, Scott DeCecco starts against Jake Esch, which just sounds like a really affected way of saying jock itch.
The best prospect performance of the day belonged to Bakersfield RHP Edwin Diaz, who threw 5 scoreless innings with 8Ks against the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. The Blaze led 2-0 when Diaz left following a very minor league play – with a man on, Tyler Marlette singled, but the ball got past the OF, and after a relay throw went awry, Marlette had come all the way around to score. The Blaze bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, but given the way the lead was acquired, it’s tough to be too upset about it. Tonight, last year’s pop-up prospect Ryan Yarbrough starts against fringe Dodger prospect Zach Bird. Bird’s been very young for his leagues, and has prototypical size and athleticsm that he pairs with a FB that can touch 94-95. The potential there, but the results haven’t been as of yet, which is kind of a scary thing to think about as he makes his first foray into the California League.
Clinton was rained out yesterday, because of course they were. I lost count of their rain-outs last year, and it’s just really tough to see ANY minor league club lose two straight opening nights – it’s such an important night for revenue that teams are loathe to call a game, even in moderately heavy rain. Ah well, they’ll try and play tonight – they haven’t scheduled a double-header the way some of the other MWL clubs have. If it goes, Brazilian pitcher Daniel Missaki will take the hill against Brett Graves of the A’s org.
Rainiers Opening Day/PCL Preview
Now that JY has helpfully gone over the entire roster, as well as those of the other full season affiliates, let’s focus on Tacoma. The Rainiers begin their season in El Paso, taking on the mighty Chihuahuas, the San Diego club that’s starting its second season. The pitching match-up pits Seattle’s 2014 co-minor league pitcher of the year in Jordan Pries against aging two-way threat Jason Lane, who started a game against the M’s in spring training this year. As I mentioned in that game preview, Lane, now 38, spent years in pro ball as an OF, peaking in 2005, when he was a starting corner OF for the Houston Astros, hitting 26 HRs. He’s been kicking around the PCL for years now, and got called in to pitch in blowout games about once or twice a year. In 2013, the Pads decided to have him concentrate on pitching, and he ended up making 24 starts for El Paso last year (as an NL affiliate, Lane got a handful of at bats, too – and he put up an OPS over 1.000 in 69 at bats, including 3 HRs. Even at 38, I still dream of him getting at least one year as a Brooks Kieshnick-style reliever/pinch-hitter).* He even got a call-up to San Diego, throwing 10 pretty good innings, giving up only 1 run. Lane’s “fastball” averages 86-87, and while he doesn’t have the command to keep it down or on the black, he has remarkable good control for a guy who converted to pitching in his mid-30s. His best pitch is a change-up that runs 79-80, and has some armside run. Lane throws it to righties and lefties alike, and seems to be able to keep it away from RHBs.
Jordan Pries opened a lot of eyes in camp, including the pair that matter – those of Lloyd McClendon. The Rainiers rotation also includes Roenis Elias, but Pries may get a shot later in the year in case of injuries or when rosters expand. Pries relies on a sinker at 90-92, a slider and a change. His stuff looks fairly pedestrian from the stands, which is why he fell to the 30th round out of Stanford and hasn’t appeared on M’s prospect lists – it doesn’t help that he’s a bit undersized, either. But the righty took advantage of an opportunity and put together a solid PCL season in 2014, and followed it up with an even better spring. Some improvements this year could have him as a 5th-starter option down the road, particularly if he hones the sinker to be a true ground-ball weapon. The movement on the pitch looks good, but he’s never actually got many ground balls compared to his league. In a league like the PCL, grounders would be nice.
Tonight’s Rainiers line-up looks like this, and game time is 6:05pm. It’s on MiLB.tv, and 850am radio in the south sound.
1: Marte, SS
2: Jones, CF
3: Romero, RF
4: Montero, 1B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Hicks, C
7: Blash, DH
8: Rivero, 3B
9: O’Malley, 2B
SP: Pries (RHP)
Go Rainiers!
If you’d like a run-down on the other PCL clubs, there are many words on the subject after the jump.
Read more
2015 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
An evening full of typing and being sort of bummed out by a failed Mariners rally later, and I’m here with a Tacoma Rainiers preview. I feel like at this level, there’s a tendency to get more philosophical because we’re not so much trying to determine what could happen for guys as evaluating what has happened. Triple-A can be a land of players that have been around a while, for whom the results have already spoken, but I found myself unusually eager to type my way through it this time even if it’s been a slog in years past.
Three-fifths of the rotation is new to us and features some former top prospects within their respective systems and whatever Elias is outside of a ten-game winner for the ‘Ners last season. The bullpen has various names of recent and more distant familiarity and a guy who, despite being added to the 40-man, still seems to be ignored in a lot of outlets. Catching will be split between two guys with solid all-around profiles. The infield has Montero, Marte, and a supporting cast that can make a case for fringe MLB roles (I pray we give Bonilla the Jaime Bubela treatment when he finally does retire), and then the outfield has a unicorn, a broken unicorn, some role players we’re still trying to figure out, and the bizarre and talented Jabari Blash, who isn’t a unicorn but is probably some other breed of cryptid.
Game 3, Angels at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Matt Shoemaker, 7:10pm
Yesterday’s game was the kind of soul-sucking mess that I’d like to just avoid talking about, but this is a baseball blog and it was baseball. Kind of. CJ Wilson’s game plan looked a bit different than last year’s. Instead of nibbling around, trying to entice a bad swing or whiff, Wilson just pumped strike after strike pretty much down the middle and dared the Mariners to hit it. They didn’t.
The location of every hit ball from CJ Wilson’s 4/7 start in Seattle.
It’s not that every single out was on a pitch middle-middle, but you look at this graph of the location of every at-bat-ending pitch, and you don’t see a pitcher working the edges. You see a cluster of centered pitches getting beat into the ground or popped up on the IF. There may be pitchers who can survive like this, at least a while, but Wilson wasn’t one last year, and I’m not sure he’s one now. More importantly, you can’t win many ballgames if you get 90mph pitches thrown pretty much exactly where you’d like them and turn them into outs. Just ugly to watch, and I’m resentful that they turned my well-argued preview on its head – Wilson actually DID manage contact, while Paxton’s HR-avoiding mojo gave out, albeit only once.
Now the M’s get another shot at a series win behind Hisashi Iwakuma, the guy who’s posted back to back 3 fWAR seasons, and whose actual RA is even better than that. As you know, Iwakuma’s FB is just barely touching 90 at this point, and he’s vacillated between throwing mostly four-seamers (which may disguise his splitter better) and two-seamers (to help manage his HRs-allowed). He’s got a slider that he seems fond of, but which hasn’t been a great pitch, and then he has an absolute beast of a splitter. Overall, Iwakuma gets swings on 60% of his splitters, despite throwing it in the zone less frequently than his fastballs. With 1 strike, batters swing 55% of the time, and then with 2 strikes and batters protecting the zone, they swing over 70% of the time. Meanwhile, almost none of these 2-strike splitters are in the zone – batters can’t stop swinging, but they have nearly zero chance of a positive outcome. This is part of the reason why Iwakuma’s career BABIP is just .271, and why his walk rate and strand rates are also better than average. He still gives up too many HRs, especially for someone pitching in Safeco, but his approach (and command) allow him to run sparkling ERA/RAs despite the dingers. After a healthy spring, expectations are high for the 34-in-a-few-days Iwakuma. Maybe he can share something with Masahiro Tanaka about succeeding without a big fastball (please don’t actually do this – this was cliched writing, not a suggestion).
The Angels counter with one of the better out-of-nowhere stories of last year. Undrafted righty Matt Shoemaker was known in the minors mostly for his neatly-trimmed Billy Mays-style beard (his AA team had Matt Shoemaker beard giveaways once). He pitched in the PCL in pieces of four separate seasons and couldn’t figure it out in any of them. He gave up plenty of HRs, but was just incredibly easy to hit (BABIPs in the .350 range), and without plus stuff, that rendered his pretty-good control moot. Injuries gave him an opportunity, first in 2013 when he shut out the M’s over 5, and then last year where he twirled 136 innings with a 23% K rate and a walk rate of just 4.4%. Behind a meh four-seamer and a splitter, Shoemaker turned in a more-Iwakuma-than-Iwakuma season that gave the Angels staff a much-needed boost. Shoemaker relies a lot less on the ground ball, which helps explain his high road HR rate, but it also helps explain his own above-average results on balls in play and strand rate.
How “real” that was, and how much of that level of performance Shoemaker can shield from the regression gods will go a long way towards sorting out the AL West this year. I mentioned that Shoemaker wasn’t great on the road last year, but Safeco’s a good park for a fly-balling control artist. On the other hand, after a poor showing against their first lefty starter of the year, the M’s may enjoy seeing another RHP.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Weeks, DH
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Iwakuma
One of the most notable performances last night occurred in the Rangers 3-1 win in Oakland, where new A’s 3B Brett Lawrie went 0-4 with four K’s. *On 12 pitches*. I caught the second half of the game, and saw him strike out twice on six consecutive breaking balls. As it turned out, he saw a first pitch fastball in his first AB, and then saw eleven consecutive sliders and curves. Jeff’s article at Fangraphs notes that something similar happened to Mike Schmidt in 1983, but he got yet another AB and hit a game winning HR. Good, even GREAT hitters have terrible games every now and again, and we all remember Iwakuma striking out Albert Pujols three times in a game, the first pitcher to ever do that to the great Angels 1B. But this looked like something else – a clear and purposeful approach to dealing with the aggressive Lawrie. He took called breaking balls, swung through breaking balls in the zone and out, and continued to look frustrated and confused each time. Not sure if that was part of the plan with the hyper-intense Lawrie, or if it was just as simple as “we’re going to throw sliders until he hits one,” but it was remarkable. Seattle-product Keone Kela made his big league debut for Texas, and it says something about the status of the Rangers ballclub that they gave him the ball up 2 in the late innings. After a sharp single from Billy Butler, Kela walked Ike Davis, bringing Lawrie to the plate with no outs and the tying runs aboard. To that point, every one of Kela’s pitches had been fastballs. The Rangers left Kela in, and three pitches later, he notched his first out with a swinging K. That, much more than Lawrie’s final K against Neftali Felix, was the key at-bat of the game. A reeling rookie reliever against a guy with borderline all-star projections, and Kela came out ahead.
Lawrie’s going to come out of this at some point – he’s a good player, and “just throw sliders” seems a little light to be a game plan (although Lawrie will have to prove that). But the comparison I thought of last night wasn’t Mike Schmidt, it was Brett Wallace in 2013. Wallace was a 1st round draft pick who sailed through the minors in a few different organizations, including Toronto and Oakland, like Lawrie. He’d had so-so stints in the majors before that, but came into 2013 as the Astros 1B by default. He’d had some K problems in his cups of coffee, but it seemed to be getting better, and his minor league K rates were under 20%, albeit barely. Then April 2013 happened. The ‘stros started against Texas, then played Oakland and then Seattle. After his sixth game, against the M’s in Seattle, Wallace was 1 for 21 in 22 plate appearances…with 17 strikeouts. That game against the M’s was a particular low point – it was his first golden sombrero, and it came in a game in which his teammates couldn’t stop hitting. That game was Brandon Maurer’s home debut, and he went 2/3 of an inning, giving up six first-inning runs. He did, however, strike out Brett Wallace swinging. Maurer gave way to Kameron Loe, so you basically know how that went. Loe gave up another 5 runs on three HRs in just 2 IP, but he, too, struck out Brett Wallace swinging. Charlie Furbush relieved Loe, and he struck out Brett Wallace swinging in the fourth, then struck him out swinging in the fifth on his way to a comparatively tidy 2IP with only 1 run allowed. It was just the 5th inning, and the Astros were up 13-0, and Brett Wallace had four swinging strikeouts. The Astros mercifully replaced Wallace with Brandon Barnes, who promptly doubled and came around to score on a Marwin Gonzalez single. This isn’t a fun game to remember, but I hadn’t seen someone look as lost as Lawrie did since April of 2013. Wallace went 0-4 in his next game (but without any Ks!) and was sent down to the minors for a few months. He hasn’t played a big league game since that 2013 season.
2015 Jackson Generals Preview
We have made it to double-A and I have been typing for hours. Literally hours. But I don’t mind it so much because the Jackson Generals have been a good affiliate for us, very active in hyping up their various alums, and this year, look to have a very talented team. Their outfield is the second-most interesting to me, but it’s close, and their infield is likely the best and most balanced. I like a lot of what I conceive to be their rotation as well, though I would clarify that there are a lot of pitchers on the DL for them right now and on pure prospect watching, Bakersfield is easily better. Jackson just gives us an opportunity to see who we might add to future depth discussions. As for the roster’s liabilities, the bullpen is nothing special and the catchers are defensively-oriented, but otherwise this looks like a really solid group that could do some playoff damage down the line, provided the team stays intact. No promises.
Diversions? Some sour grapes of an international flavor, our last remaining South African player and references to the United Nations, my most frequently used Aqua Teen Hunger Force quote, left-handers who can’t get left-handers out, the elixir of life (in passing), big bats with position questions, utility player heartthrobs, BABIP vagaries, player reevaluations, and a section in which I copy and paste a player’s injury history. I still have no idea who pitches where in the rotation.
Tacoma will be up tomorrow. I don’t know when, but probably before they start play.
2015 Bakersfield Blaze Preview
This marks the first year since 2007 that the Mariners have had an affiliation outside of High Desert. Okay, let’s think about that for a moment. Eight years we were there. Whaaat. But shifting up north to Bakersfield leads me to think of things in new and unfamiliar ways. Park factors, for one. I don’t have any handy at the moment (sorry), but I remember from experience that the offensive environment is slightly inflated and that the quality of the infield is notoriously poor. It’s something that we may not have to consider for very long as there have been discussions of moving the team to Salinas, roughly 200 miles to the northwest, and the Mariners likely bought in early with that in mind. A new park there may figure to be pitcher-friendly.
In the larger scheme, I wonder about other things. While we are nominally leaving the Desert, these have been a hard few years for the state of California and the dry conditions are only spreading. This leaves the team name, Blaze, a little uncomfortable at times. Will it be long before, over concerns of water usage, baseball stadiums in the league switch over to field turf or some equivalent? I say this as someone long suspicious of lawns and their use of resources purely for aesthetic purposes. Long-term droughts and baseball. Someone think of this as a potential thesis topic. Theses have been written about chairs, this is hardly worse.
So, the Blaze. Actually, the whole rotation has something going for each member and the back end of the bullpen looks to be pretty special, I just worry about the guys in between. Catching will present some interesting choices as to who to play and when, as both guys need their defensive time but could pass as DHs, particularly with an emergency catcher already on the roster. The infield is in one of those, “the less said, the better” realms, but the outfield doesn’t have any real liabilities and for prospect watching, is probably the best group we’ll be running out at any level this season. I could be into it. I could see myself listening to Bakersfield broadcasts during the year.
Over the course of this preview, I also manage to keep on subject pretty often. Nevertheless, one of the rotation members is still sort of an enigma, there’s an important hyphenated reliever, in lieu of writing about one pitcher I instead flipped out and went off on a few vaguely connected tangents, mentioned one of the maybe two stock car drivers whose names I know, failed to comprehend an infielder’s transition to High Desert but did get to type “Panamanian” again, talked about favorite injured prospects, favorite gritty types, favorite inside jokes, and a guy whose slugging with High Desert at home was equal to his road OPS who also happens to be named after a famous actor with a famous mustache.