Game 24, Mariners at Astros
Taijuan Walker vs. Collin McHugh, 4:10pm
So, the Astros seem to be better than we thought. A few days back, I mentioned that they’d passed the A’s for 3rd highest division odds, and today Fangraphs tweeted a pretty cool graph showing that they’ve passed the Angels as well. Their projected win total now stands at 84, with the M’s at 85. It’s the tight AL West we all expected, just with a different set of contenders. Of course, the projections are still driven in large part by the underlying true-talent estimates of each team. You adjust those based on the first month, but the starting point still matters. That’s why the M’s are still on top in Fangraphs odds, and it’s why the M’s are rapidly falling off the pace according to BP. There, it’s the Angels who were supposed to be the leaders, and they’ve seen their edge slip. BP also saw a tight division, with the leader now projected at 85 wins and the Astros’ charge has upped their projected total to 84. It’s just that the M’s and Angels are flip-flopped. What about Clay Davenport, the projections that had the A’s winning the West? Well, now it’s a mess, with the Astros a tiny fraction of a win ahead of the A’s, and with the M’s and Angels within a game or two. At this point, it’s too soon to write anyone off, except Texas, who are in shambles. But it looks like it’s a four-team mess now, and if the Astros just go .500 the rest of the way, the M’s will need to win 77 of their remaining games to win, a winning percentage of .554 or so. That’s not impossible by any stretch, but the road’s getting harder.
And it’s not getting easier today, with the M’s facing Collin McHugh, who’s having another solid year *despite* giving up a BABIP over .340. Like Matt Shoemaker, McHugh came out of nowhere to post shockingly high K:BB ratios, and both had elite K-BB%, with McHugh finishing one spot ahead of Shoemaker, and just a fraction behind Hisashi Iwakuma. While K rates and walk rates tend to be fairly stable, it’s still tough to know what to make of someone whose own rates had been so volatile. Neither McHugh nor Shoemaker had shown signs that they were capable of this in the minors, and of course McHugh had been knocked around and waived by a few NL teams already. This year, Shoemaker’s K-BB% is still pretty solid, but it’s fallen back to 15% from the 18+% it was at last year. McHugh’s, however, continues to rise, and it’s above 19% now.
To be clear, 19% is really, really good, but it’s not Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez good. That’s OK, I think even McHugh would acknowledge he’s not in that class. Instead, it’s a testament to what he’s able to do without nuclear-grade stuff. Shoemaker and Iwakuma use a splitter to get weak contact and whiffs while avoiding the middle of the plate. McHugh, as we talked about last time, has become a crafty junkballer, throwing a blizzard of sliders and curves – keeping them in the zone when he wants, and expanding the zone with two strikes. McHugh now throws a fastball only 1/4 of his pitches, and essentially uses his slider as his primary pitch. No one in baseball pitches this way, unless you include knuckleballers.
But both of today’s pitchers bring up the question of how and where you set the boundaries between pitch types. What IS a slider, and how is it different from a cutter? If you include cutters, there are plenty of pitchers who use them as a primary pitch – the M’s just saw one the other day in Scott Feldman. If you see McHugh’s slider as a sort of cutter, then his pitch mix doesn’t look so remarkable. McHugh’s “slider” is thrown quite hard, with only about a 5mph gap between it and his four-seam fastball. It’s got a different shape than Feldman’s, so he may use it a bit differently, but you can argue they’re different versions of the same strategy. With Taijuan Walker, we heard a lot about how he was shifting to a true slider from his hard (91mph) cutter. Thus far, his slider/cutter thingy is *still* 91mph, and damn if I can see much of any change in its break (OK, OK – it has 1″ more horizontal movement). What you call it ultimately doesn’t matter as much as what you want to do with it. Walker still pitches off his 96mph fastball, and uses the cutter/slider thingy as a breaking ball to righties, just as you would a slider. McHugh’s slider-y/cutter thing is his primary pitch to lefties and righties alike, and mixed in four-seamers and curves to both (with a change-up for lefties). That’s what, say, Scott Feldman or the old version of Brandon McCarthy would do with their cutters. I don’t know what we’ve proven here except that language is malleable and can conceal/confuse as much as it can reveal. That’s pretty heady stuff for a Saturday morning.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Weeks, LF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Walker
The M’s are six games back. The furthest back the Angels got last year was also 6 games, back when the Athletics looked like they were going to rip off 110 wins. The year before, the A’s got to 7 games back before going on a tear to reel in the Rangers. Back in 2012, the A’s started slowly, falling 13 games behind the high-flying Rangers before essentially not losing in the 2nd half to win. Those three years all had a dominant team or two, and the winning club won at least 94. It might be easier to come back if you don’t need to go 51-25 like the A’s in 2012 or beat another club winning 90+, but man, I’d like the M’s to avoid falling 7 back. I guess the positive to take from this brief review is that there was a team in each year that flew out of the gates and built a big lead only to lose it in the season’s second half.
The Rainiers won 2-0 last night against Fresno, with Justin Germano throwing 5 1/3 excellent innings in the spot start, and…look, you know what you’re for, I know what you’re here for, let’s cut to the chase. Jesus Montero stole home. Once again, the Rainiers pulled off a double steal, with Jesus Montero, the one you remember, not some other one, but Jesus ACTUALLY Montero stole home. Here you go. Tacoma faces the Grizzlies again today with Sam Gaviglio on the hill.
The story in Jackson was the return of lefty Danny Hultzen. Hultzen made his 2015 debut against Pensacola and Robert Stephenson, and pitched 3 1/3 innings, giving up an unearned run with 4 Ks and 3 hits. The Generals knocked out Stephenson in the first, scoring six runs. DJ Peterson doubled in the first, then knocked a solo HR in the 2nd. Cuban southpaw Misael Siverio starts for the Generals today opposite Daniel Wright, a 10th round pick who put up 141 Ks to 22 walks last year across two levels, but who’s struggled a bit in his first taste of the high minors.*
Ryan Yarbrough struggled for Bakersfield, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits in 3 2/3 IP as Visalia put out the Blaze 9-2. Tim Lopes went 2-4 with a 2B, and continues to rebound from a slow start. Dan Altavilla starts today against Visalia, with Blayne Weller taking the mound for the Rawhide. Weller’s an org guy – at 25, he’s making his second go-round in High-A, and that’s as high as he’s been. While his overall numbers aren’t great, he’s a remarkably streaky pitcher who misses tons of bats. He joined the D-Backs org in 2013 out of the independent Frontier League, and struck out 61 in 60 IP. Nothing out of the ordinary there. But last year, he K’d 161 in just 120 IP. He started in the midwest league, and threw a no-hitter in his final game, racking up 12 Ks. He was then promoted to the Cal League, where his K rate actually went up, punctuated with 16 strikeouts in an 8 inning start against Modesto. In his next start, he couldn’t make it out of the 3rd, giving up 7 runs, and walking 3 against 2Ks. If he could harness his stuff, he wouldn’t be in the Cal League at 25, but he’s not your typical org depth.
It’s tough to get noticed on a day when Danny Hultzen makes his return to the minors after 20 months, or when Jesus Montero steals home. To get the attention of M’s fans, the Lumberkings would need to do something special. Well, they managed it. Clinton threw a combined no hitter at the Cedar Rapids Kernels, with Danial Missaki, the Brazilian prospect-who-is-not-Luiz-Gohara starting and going 7 IP with 7 Ks. He was perfect through 6, but walked a man in the 7th, then pitched around it. Kody Kerski pitched a 1-2-3 8th, and then Troy Scott finished things off in the 9th. With two outs and a 2-2 count, Scott thought he’d rung up Tanner English, then *really* thought he had him at 3-2, but the umpire called ball 4. No matter – Scott K’d Nick Gordon and that was that, the first combined no-no for Clinton since 1996, and the first no-hitter since Victor Sanchez threw one in 2013 aaaand now I’m sad again. Missaki now has a 30:4 K:BB ratio on the year in 29 1/3 IP. Tyler Herb starts for Clinton today in Cedar Rapids against hard-throwing Twins prospect Michael Cederoth. Cederoth got lots of scouting attention at San Diego State thanks to a high-90s fastball and the makings of a change-up, but struggled with his control in his sophomore year (he went 3-9, too). A move to the bullpen helped, but that sent him down the draft board, and the Twins got him in the 3rd round, and promptly moved him back to the rotation.
* Like a number of guys with gaudy K:BB ratios, Wright had some hidden free passes – he also plunked 11 batters. Ryan Yarbrough’s hit three to go with his four walks, meaning he’s given up one more free pass this year than he did in his remarkable 2014 with Everett, when he had 53Ks, 4BBs and 2 HBPs. This year, it’s 17Ks, 4BBs and 3 HBPs.
Game 23, Mariners at Astros
Roenis Elias vs. Sam Deduno, 5:10pm
Not only did the M’s drop yesterday’s game in extras, but they lost Carlos Quentin, who left the Tacoma Rainiers two days ago and is now officially retiring. That obviously sounds worse than it is – Quentin was stuck behind Jesus Montero, Pat Kivlehan and Chris Taylor as likely RHH call-ups, and he needed to absolutely mash to have any shot. He didn’t absolutely mash, and he’s going to spend more time with his family, which is admirable, and something I should probably do myself. And the game, while frustrating, offered a few rays of hope. Yesterday was James Paxton’s best start of the year, combining some swing-and-miss stuff with command that, if not exactly plus, was good enough to get grounders and stay out of trouble. With Hisashi Iwakuma hobbled a bit, it’s imperative that the Rainiers get some production from Tai Walker and James Paxton, and both showed real promise in their last outings. Roenis Elias, essentially the #6 starter on the 40-man, can’t replace Paxton if he’s already replacing Iwakuma, so it’s nice to see continued signs of a James Paxton that isn’t in imminent need of rescuing.
Today, Elias faces off against righty Sam Deduno, who has always fascinated me more than an ex-Twins pitcher without a lot of control or bat-missing ability should. As you know, I talk about each pitcher’s arsenal through a pitch fx lens, and as a result, you get pretty familiar with the ranges you expect to see. FB velocity is generally in that 89-96 range, and thus, if someone’s outside of that 1-2 standard deviation range, you notice it. Well, Sam Deduno’s fastball is a pretty rare bird. It’s (appropriately) classed as a four-seam fastball, and has essentially no horizontal movement. It some in at 89-90, but it has essentially zero rise. Its vertical movement is like nothing I’ve seen before, and so I always kind of look forward to seeing the guy (another example of how this job really messes with your head – you look forward to a guy with a career walk rate of 11% because his vertical movement numbers are pleasingly puzzling).
A fastball, and in particular one without horizontal movement, typically has a lot of backspin on it. Imagine the ball coming off of your hand, and how your fingers and wrists point down after release – that motion creates backspin, and it’s that spin that means that a fastball doesn’t fall as much as it would if it had no spin. This is where the “vertical movement” number comes from in the first place – it’s the difference between where the ball would’ve been with no spin, and where it is WITH all that backspin. Guys who throw straight over the top, like James Paxton or Chris Tillman, typically impart a ton of vertical movement because essentially *all* of the spin is going in the same direction – there’s not much sidespin, all the force is creating backspin. Carson Smith, on the other hand, has a funky sidearm delivery, and thus tons of side spin, so he gets much more horizontal movement on the ball, with relatively little rise (this is more true of his sinker; even Carson Smith’s four-seamer, which he very rarely throws, has about twice as much ‘rise’ as Deduno’s). So how do you get a baseball to go 90mph, straight ahead (with little to no horizontal movement), without just heaps of backspin? I still don’t know. Felix Hernandez’s four-seamer used to look something like this – particularly a few years back. But with 6-8″ of rise, and more horizontal movement, it’s not a particularly useful comparison. Anyway, I’m hoping now with statcast data around that we might start to learn more about what he does – I assume that he simply imparts much less spin than normal, but it’d be nice to know exactly how much less, and how/why he does that. His old catcher Joe Mauer has said that his FB moves like a knuckler, and if it’s got very low spin, you can kind of squint and see what he means. On the other hand, Deduno’s always dealt with injuries – he had TJ in the minors and has missed bits of pieces of several seasons. Is THAT partially the result of his motion? No idea, and it’s essentially impossible to find out. Still, I’d love to see what statcast has to say about the guy – that and an extreme slow-mo shot of his delivery.
As you’d expect with a ball that appears to sink more than normal, Deduno’s typically been a ground-ball pitcher, with a career rate of about 57%. Walks have killed him though, and without Ks to balance them, it’s pretty easy to see why his FIP’s 4.51. His career platoon splits are reversed, but he hasn’t pitched enough for that to be definitive proof of anything. They’re driven by some HR problems he had with righties for a while; righties have fared much better on Deduno’s fastball. But he didn’t have reversed splits last season, and hasn’t shown them this year either, and his HR issues have been much better since his first few call-ups. That’s not to say he’s “normal” – this is Deduno we’re talking about – but it’s probably better to assume he’s got smaller than normal splits than to think stacking the line-up with righties makes sense.
1: Smith, RF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Miller, SS
8: Ackley, LF
9: Sucre, C
SP: Elias
The suddenly Quentin-less Rainiers dominated the Fresno Grizzlies yesterday, torching the rehabbing Brett Oberholtzer (that name just cries out for umlauts) for 7 runs in the first inning. The R’s just held on until they exploded again for 6 runs off Alex White, the guy who was supposed to start. It ended up at 13-3, with Chris Taylor staying hot, going 2-4 with a 2B, and Jesus Montero and Franklin Gutierrez also chipping in with 2 hits. Stefen Romero had 3, and the R’s got HRs from Julio Morban and Carlos Rivero. Jordan Pries got the easy win, and Logan Bawcom pitched another sharp 2IP in relief – the Texan had a terrible year last year, which ended in him losing his 40-man spot this December. He’s been better so far, and hasn’t given up a run in his last 5 games, covering 9 1/3 IP, and he’s missing a few more bats than he did in 2014. Today, Justin Germano gets a spot start against the Grizzlies and lefty starter Luis Cruz.
The big story in the minors today is Danny Hultzen, who’ll be making his first appearance of the season for Jackson as the Generals face Pensacola. He’ll face off with Reds prospect Robert Stephenson, a fireballing 22 year old who cruised through the low minors, but had an inconsistent season in AA last year. This is one to watch if you’ve got MiLB.tv, though it starts 5 min. before the M’s game. Two screens, people. Pensacola beat Jackson 3-1 yesterday, as ex-Padres prospect Keyvius Samson threw 4 solid innings. Spot starter Jimmy Gilheeney was pretty good, but took the loss. DJ Peterson went 0-4.
Ryan Yarbrough starts for Bakersfield as they face Visalia for the first time.
Daniel Missaki gets the ball for Clinton, who ALSO get to face a new team – the Cedar Rapids Kernels.