Game 127, Athletics at Mariners
King Felix vs. Chris Bassitt, 12:40pm
Happy Felix Day. The M’s and A’s played a game in which both bullpens logged a lot of innings without giving up a run. That’s kind of incredible, given their track records.
The M’s face right-hander Chris Bassitt today, a part of the big Jeff Samardzija trade that also netted the A’s SS Marcus Semien. Bassitt wasn’t a big prospect, but was big-league ready thanks to a solid four-seam and sinker, a slider and slow curve. While his brief cup of coffee with the White Sox hadn’t gone well, the A’s talked him up as a rotation candidate in the spring, and after starting the season in AAA and then moving to the A’s bullpen, he’s been the 5th starter for a few months now. After getting stretched out a bit, he’s been on a roll, with quality starts in his last 7 outings – the last time he failed to make it 6 IP was the last time he faced Seattle, back on July 5th – and that was only his 2nd start of the year.
Bassitt’s a fly-ball pitcher despite the fact that none of his pitches have much in the way of rise. Looking at the movement on his pitches and his arsenal, you’d expect an above-average GB%, but that’s not what we see – his rate of 41.3% is well below average. Since arriving in Oakland, he’s done two things that have helped him figure out MLB. First, he’s added over 1mph on his fastball – he now throws 94 pretty routinely and touches 97. Second, he’s developed a plan of attack against left-handers. With the White Sox and in the minors, Bassitt’s sinker/slider-heavy repertoire produced big platoon splits. He had – and still has -a change-up, but it hasn’t been very effective and he doesn’t use it much. Instead, Bassitt’s now throwing lefties a lot of four-seamers, a pitch with much lower platoon splits than the sinker. In addition, he mixed in his slow curve so lefties can’t sit on his slider. That slider’s tightened up a bit too – it’s thrown around 85, and has more horizontal movement than it did last year – and while neither breaking ball is all that great on its own, using the two in combination seems to work for Bassitt. This is exactly why Taijuan Walker needs to work on a true slider this offseason.
Part of the reason for Bassitt’s grounder-averse ways is that he’s pretty comfortable pitching up in the zone. And this isn’t limited to his four-seam; he’ll throw low and away sliders to righties, but against lefties, he’ll often target the top of the zone with his breaking balls, which isn’t something I’ve seen many pitchers do. Working the sides of the zone instead of the bottom may produce more fly balls, but it might also help him avoid pulled contact. His 29% opposite-field contact rate would be well above average for starting pitchers, and the percentage of hard-hit balls he’s allowed ranks 2nd in baseball, behind only Dallas Keuchel. This helps explain why his actual runs-allowed are so much lower than his FIP and xFIP would suggest, but it also leaves fans with a choice: by the newfangled quality-of-contact stats, he looks like a very good pitcher. By good old fashioned DIPS-stats, he’s only average. We know how well DIPS metrics like xFIP predict future ERA, but we don’t know as much about what “hard hit%” *means* for a pitcher going forward, or how reliable it is. Some pitchers, like Keuchel, clearly have an ability to generate weaker contact, but just as many supposed “FIP-beaters” fail to maintain their DIPS-defying ways, plenty of pitchers can’t seem to maintain elite levels of contact management. So we’ll see; for the A’s, even if he’s “just” average, that’s still a great return for the 2nd piece in the Samardzija trade.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, LF
6: Trumbo, DH
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Sucre, C
SP: The King
Tacoma’s Chien Ming Wang was coming off two stellar outings heading into last night’s game against Memphis, but he couldn’t make it three straight. Wang gave up 8 runs in the first 3 innings in Tacoma’s 8-2 loss. Ji-Man Choi, who’s rejoined the Rainiers following surgery and rehab on his leg, had 2 hits. Tyler Olson starts for the Rainiers tonight.
Jackson was shut down yet again by another Rays hurler, this time it was Austin Pruitt’s turn. Pruitt went 8IP, giving up just 2 hits, walking none and striking out 8. In the three games of this series, the Biscuits starters tossed 21 innings, gave up 0 runs on just 7 hits and struck out 29. It won’t get any easier for them today, as they now face one of the Rays actual top prospects in Taylor Guerrieri. The former 1st rounder suffered TJ surgery in 2013 and then a suspension for a drug of abuse, but he’s put up great numbers when healthy. Jimmy Gilheeney takes the mound for the Generals.
Bakersfield beat Visalia 9-6 thanks to two HRs from OF Chantz Mack. Ryan Yarbrough was solid for 5 IP, and while the bullpen was a little shaky, the Blaze torched ex-M’s minor leaguer Brett Shankin for 8 runs in 2 2/3 IP. Tonight, Brett Ash shares the mound with Visalia’s Ryan Doran.
After getting 1-hit twice in the span of 3 days, the Clinton Lumberkings finally went out and silenced another team’s bats. Eddie Campbell pitched well, tossing 8 shutout innings, surrendering only 3 hits against Quad Cities. Lukas Schiraldi faces off with Astros’ prospect Agapito Berrios, which is a name you don’t see every day. The Panamanian righty has given up just 2 runs in 4 midwest league starts.
Everett beat Salem-Keizer 4-1, with Jake Brentz tossing 6 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball. Braden Bishop had 4 hits in the game, and has been red hot since beginning his pro career a bit slowly. He’s the NWL’s player of the week, and has hit safely in 14 of his last 15 games. Drew Jackson had 3 hits of his own, pushing his OBP to .466. While Jackson has little in-game power, his speed is a real asset: he’s stolen 42 bags this year and been caught only 3 times. Anthony Misiewicz starts for the AquaSox tonight.
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20 Responses to “Game 127, Athletics at Mariners”
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This has to be a first: no comments during a game that Felix pitched, and pitched well. This is what Jack Z has wrought. It’s sad. I can’t believe ownership doesn’t (or refuses to) realize the depths of apathy surrounding this team.
Amen.
Could be worse… You could live in Clinton or Jackson…
If the M’s were actually playing well, then I’d find ways to follow their day games even when I’m working. But the fact is they’re playing meaningless games in yet another lost season, so I am really only following when I don’t have anything better to do. Even in the evenings, I often only watch part of the game – and it’s more because I enjoy watching baseball in general rather than the Mariners in particular.
If Jack Z is fired this off season, I’ll probably pay somewhat closer attention. But the Mariners’ fan in me is pretty apathetic, and it’s probably going to take a bit of good mojo on the part of the new front office before I get invested in this team again.
However… I don’t know that I trust the ownership to recognize that Jack Z needs to go. I will be disappointed – but not surprised – to see him still at the helm at the start of 2016.
Nah, Jack Z is done.
Begin writing the eulogy now.
There’s still a remote chance they’ll be good next year.
Need improvement on the slow guy positions: C, 1B, DH
and the super fast guy position: CF
Bullpen will probably fix itself.
I don’t dislike Jack Z or any of the other “Baseball” people in the front office. But how long does it take before you just say that it did not work and maybe it’s time to go in another direction?
We all know that that upper level management views the Mariners more as a product than a baseball team. No matter how bad the product is, it will sell even better than some other franchises.
There is a remote chance they could be good next year. A lot has to happen. Including the starting rotation. The biggest issue again is the lack of successful coaching. If you have not been paying attention, look at Happ and Smoak. It was not just a change of scenery, it was coaching.
You have to give Edgar more time including an offseason before judging him. Zunino is still hitting .175 and Seager is still struggling despite yesterdays game. I believe that even Rodney was fixable. But that does not happen in Seattle. For now anyway.
Slow guy positions: Zunino, the aforementioned Choi, and Montero. I have no issue with that.
CF: It’s Miller time!
Are you holding up Smoak as a success story now that he’s left Seattle? Because he’s only hitting .218/.282/.445 with Toronto. Ditto Happ… moved to the NL, and is averaging less than 6 innings per start. Yes, in four starts. His first four starts in Seattle looked good, too.
I am holding up Smoak as someone who has had some success but if you have watched him at all, he does not look like the same player he was in Seattle. He has been clutch on several occasions.
I am not saying these guys become all stars, but my friends in different states ask me about the coaching in Seattle. They are hearing about it watching their teams.
As for Happ, Ray Searage saw a flaw in his delivery and fixed it. I don’t know what the next start will bring.
But you have to wonder about Montgomery and the inconsistency of Walker, again… Looks like for the time being Erasmo found his groove in Tampa.
Feels kind of like we wasted the one good year Nelson Cruz was going to give us this year…..sort of a Richie Sexson contract.
*sigh*
There’s always next decade.
I can’t believe ownership doesn’t (or refuses to) realize the depths of apathy surrounding this team.
You realize attendance is up a few thousand a game from last year, right?
I would argue if you don’t update the site for a week during the season, and there’s an erratic update schedule, and the headliners keep fleeing for elsewhere, like Fangraphs… well, you start training people to go elsewhere for their Mariner commentary.
USSM would be fine if more people were involved in content creation (like LL), and there was more of a pipeline. Not to say this is marc w’s fault at all, because he’s awesome, more that it’s too much for just one dude.
Anyways…
Seager is still struggling despite yesterdays game.
Seager, 2015: .254/.310/.420
Seager, lifetime: .260/.324/.427
He’s having a down year, but c’mon, did you expect he would get progressively better EVERY year? Nobody does that. As a down year it’s not that bad. On the list of things to worry about, it’s fairly low.
Attendance is up. How many of those are Mariner fans? It’s great marketing.
I don’t want to make this about Kyle Seager, who is in the first year of a 7 year 100 million dollar contract. But… He is having an off year? Why is McCheese batting him 2nd. He should be batting 4th or 5th where he has had success. Ya, Nelson Cruz.
This is what I am talking about…
2015 Bases Empty .283
2015 Men on Base .210
2015 Men In Scoring .167
2014 Bases Empty .243
2014 Men on Base .303
2014 Men In Scoring .301
Sheesh!
“Seager, 2015: .254/.310/.420
Seager, lifetime: .260/.324/.427
He’s having a down year, but c’mon, did you expect he would get progressively better EVERY year? Nobody does that. As a down year it’s not that bad. On the list of things to worry about, it’s fairly low.”
I agree with your overall point but was this really the expectation for $14,000,000+ a year (on average because the contract is back loaded)? It is better, dollar for dollar, than paying someone $24,000,000 who is quite possibly the worst base runner in the history of the game (trotting home on a walk with first base open? Really?) and now falls asleep (or is “inattentive”) while fielding as well.
Both of these contracts will be albatrosses long after Jack Z is gone.
Attendance is up. How many of those are Mariner fans? It’s great marketing.
I wasn’t aware that your money spends any different at Safeco if you’re a Mariner fan.
My point is simply that USSM being in the doldrums might have more than one reason, and there’s some contrary data. The attendance has recovered some from the low point a couple of years ago. Like it or not, be a member of the I Hate Jackie Z Fan Club or not, that’s where we are today.
(That being said attendance is a following indicator of team quality. The M’s attendance record is from 2002, not 2001.)
I agree with your overall point but was this really the expectation for $14,000,000+ a year (on average because the contract is back loaded)?
Seager’s had 15 WAR over his last 4 years. He’s comparable to Chase Headley and Evan Longoria over that time, who are both in the middle of contracts that will net around 13-14 million a year . Oh, look, that’s 13 million a year. Maybe it’s not such an “albatross contract”, as you put it. Maybe that’s just the going rate for a good 3B. Given that the M’s haven’t had a really good home-grown one since Edgar, I’m fine with this contract.
Seager’s contract is not the problem with this roster, any more than Adrian Beltre’s was. End of story. Lots of problems to look at before you start picking nits with a contract that’s not really unreasonable, for a guy who’s still on the right side of 30, and in a down year’s still a good player.
I don’t have a problem with Kyle Seager or his contract. Good for him. I just don’t correlate success with attendance. Safeco is a great place to watch a ballgame. Would be insane if the team were good or even competitive.
But this year, Kyle Seager is a SYMPTOM of what is going on with the Mariners as a team. And my issues are that for someone whom was brought in to build a farm system, there are a lot of LONG term dead money contracts (not Seager’s) on this team. And not a lot of talent is coming from the farm system.
And I have stated that Marc W does a great job. But this site like the Mariners are not good at the details. Like the friggin M’s affiliates.
I just don’t correlate success with attendance. Safeco is a great place to watch a ballgame. Would be insane if the team were good or even competitive.
Of course, I’ve been there during the peaks. But success DOES correlate with attendance; the M’s don’t lead the league in attendance any more because they’ve spent a decade+ mostly being awful.
They’re middle of the AL and middle-ish of MLB for attendance this year. They are also 3rd in MLB in attendance gain per game, behind KC and Houston:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/current_attendance.shtml
The thing is attendance WILL eventually correlate with being good or bad. Had the M’s actually built on 2014 instead of doing a faceplant, they’d likely be doing even better.
Incidentally… anyone notice that it took Houston all of 5 years to go from a team winning in the 50’s (an even worse team than the M’s) to a playoff contender? Wonder what that says about Jack Z…
This attendance nonsense sounds like ownership. How often do you hear sportscasters say, well the mariners lost 6-3 but 30000 people showed up to see them do it…
Notice, I have been ranting about it the whole year. Their farm system is loaded. It says that the plan failed and the M’s are not any closer…
Seager’s fine. His contact rates, batted ball profile, etc are exactly where they should be. He’s about 25 BABIP points below his career level. Spot him that, and turn maybe one or two fly balls into home runs, and he’s the same as last year. There’s no coaching problem here, just random fluctuation of outcomes for his particular skill set.
Same for Smoak. He’s striking out more than ever, the same replacement level player he’s always been; he’s just had a string of good luck on the HR/FB ratio. Partial-season dramatic changes of that ratio, with no other skill set development, are almost never indicative of anything but good (or bad) luck.
The stuff about “clutch” is just silly; “clutch” performances relative to skill set vary essentially randomly and tell us nothing about skill, passion, coaching, etc etc–just random variation.
I get the frustration, but that’s no reason to try to transform normal outcome variation into more fodder for your preferred narratives.
This attendance nonsense sounds like ownership.
My point is that “oh noes the fans aren’t posting on USSM because the M’s suck, fan interest is down” is somewhat contradicted by evidence of fans doing things like actually going to ballgames this year at better rates than in past years. Maybe USSM is down because at some points it’s a complete crapshoot if you’ll get a game thread. Certainly there would be more interest here if we weren’t discussing another crappy M’s team, but there’s more to it than that.
But hey, like djw says, I guess you needn’t bother with evidence that doesn’t support a predetermined narrative. Go on with your bad self.
“Seager’s fine. His contact rates, batted ball profile, etc are exactly where they should be. He’s about 25 BABIP points below his career level. Spot him that, and turn maybe one or two fly balls into home runs, and he’s the same as last year. There’s no coaching problem here, just random fluctuation of outcomes for his particular skill set.”
He isn’t worth $14 million a year. Period. His contract goes up to around $19 million in a few years and it will be a problem. Of course some people thought the Mariners would be in the World Series this year….
I agree that his contract isn’t currently at the top of the list of Mariner problems. But it’s hard to prioritze the incredible number of problems this organization has.
He isn’t worth $14 million a year. Period.
What’s the argument here? Why not?
In a down year, he’s probably going to come in just under 3 WAR. THat’s….worth more than 14 million in today’s market. His more likely outcome, given his underlying skill set, is closer to 4 WAR. That’s…worth more than 19 million a year. If he ages poorly AND the current level of inflation of the cost of WAR–which is by most calculations over 6 million–stops or reverses, the last year or two might be an overpay. But you could say that about virtually every 7 year contract.
If you want to make the case that Seager is overpaid, you have to show why. Is WAR massively overrating him? How so? Is the cost per win miscalculated? Show your work.