Rainiers Opening Night
I know, I know: I just wrote a post about the minors, and the post in fact mentioned that tonight is opening day across the full-season leagues. But anyone who knows me or has read the blog for any length of time knows that I am, in Mike Curto’s perfect phrase, PCL for Life. At times in this rather lean decade for the big club I’ve felt more of a Rainiers fan than an M’s one – that’s where you get to see Ackley/Smoak/Montero *succeed* after all – and while this is and will always be a Mariners blog first and foremost, the Rainiers will always get a lot of attention. I spent years living within walking distance of Cheney Stadium, and it’s nights like this – it’s near 80, no clouds in the sky – that I most miss it. I’ll be up at some point in the opening series, but let’s take a look at the Rainiers in a bit more depth and talk about things to look for if you head to Tacoma for a game.
The rotation features James Paxton, Cody Martin, Adrian Sampson, Donn Roach and tonight’s starter, Joe Wieland. Of that group, only Adrian Sampson lacks MLB experience. Paxton’s got the most innings pitches, while Martin/Roach and Wieland have all pitched (very sparingly) for multiple big league clubs. Sampson was a mid-level prospect the M’s got from Pittsburgh in exchange for JA Happ, and he figures to get some friends and family to the games, as he went to Skyline HS in Sammamish and attended Bellevue College. Roach was the star of spring training coming out of the bullpen, but will stretch it out as a starter in the early going. Cody Martin made his debut out of the pen for Atlanta last year, got demoted, and was then traded to Oakland. As I mentioned when he was acquired, Oakland seemed to make some fairly big changes to his pitch mix, and the results were awful – like Roach, I’m really curious to see what and how he’s throwing in the early going.
I went over the IF and OF last night, and the question about Rob Brantly’s place on the roster’s been answered: the M’s released Steve Lerud to make room for Brantly. He’ll be Mike Zunino’s back-up. Via Mike Curto, here’s a great John McGrath column on the new player development group and their work with Zunino, Chris Taylor and James Paxton. It also covers the, uh, struggles the last group had in trying to make Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, etc. were consistent big leaguers. According to the column, Ackley in particular got tips from a variety of coaches and tried to incorporate all of them. The new group prioritizes the mental side, and they may have more of an organization-wide philosophy on hitting, if that “hitting summit” during the off season is any indication.
Here’s tonight’s opening day line-up. With the M’s traveling, it’s the perfect time to head to Cheney or just tune in to the game here , on 850am in the south sound, or via MiLB.tv. Game time is 7:05pm
1: Boog Powell, CF
2: Shawn O’Malley, 2B
3: Stefen Romero, RF
4: Efren Navarro, 1B
5: Mike Zunino, C
6: Mike Baxter, DH
7: Ed Lucas, 3B
8: Chris Taylor, SS
9: Daniel Robertson, LF
SP: Wieland
I didn’t mention Ed Lucas in yesterday’s post, so let’s talk about him: Lucas was a long-time Royals farmhand who’s moved through the Braves/Angels/Rangers and Marlins systems. He’s mostly a 3B, but has displayed a lot of versatility: in his extended call-up with the Marlins in 2013 and 2014, he played SS, OF, 3B and some 2B. He’s got good control of the strike zone, but very little power, which makes him eerily similar to tonight’s 2B, Shawn O’Malley.
Ok, so what’s the PCL look like this year? And when should you come out to a game? Let’s take a look at some of the clubs visiting Tacoma this year:
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A Tradition Unlike Any Other
It’s spring, and the Mariners top pitcher has made a single start. He faced the Rangers, in Arlington, and was extremely difficult to square up. On the other hand, he had awful command, walking 5 and plunking another, and velocity was in the :SIRENS BLARE: FELIX VELOCITY WARNING! IMMINENT INJURY???
This is now a rite of spring. We do this – baseball bloggers, I mean – every single year, and those of us in the Northwest are among the biggest offenders. I get it, I really do: he’s a star player with a large amount of money committed to him, and he looks nothing like the pitcher he was when he entered the league, or, for that matter, in 2009 or whatever. The proliferation of pitch fx data has been revolutionary for baseball analysis, and I will admit that 90% of what I do utilizes or is based upon that data set. It enables reliable trend data on all manner of pitching results, including velocity, and *we cannot look away*. In this specific case, I think we should. To say that Felix’s velocity is down is to state a truism, and something you could say after literally any start in the past six years. To state that it’s a sign of injury or impending ineffectiveness is, to put it mildly, not supported by the results of the past six years. Is THIS the time it suddenly matters? Is this the end of Good Felix? Pitch FX or release points or any of that *cannot give us an answer*. Only batters can do that.
Is this just me being a homer? Look, I’m the pessimist around here. This is my beat; I should be all over a great doom and gloom story. But we’ve all been through this more times than I can count. Here’s old friend Graham MacAree writing about Felix’s slowing fastball in the offseason following the 2009 season. He noted that as it slowed, it produced better results by pitch-type linear weights. Here’s Jeff in the spring of 2012, a bit after Dave wrote a post on Felix’s velocity after his first start of that year. Remember 2012? Good year for Felix, that one. Adam Wong noted Felix’s velocity was down in 2013, but that it was climbing again after a slow start.
As the years go by, the nexus between velocity loss and potential injury get more and more explicit, as with this piece last year, or this one from a few days ago. I don’t dispute the premise of these articles, which is that velocity decline can be a sign of injury, and that velocity decline is generally pretty highly correlated with performance declines. As Felix ages and his margin of error decreases, you might argue, it’s much more important. Going form 97 to 95 is one thing, but going from 92 to 90 may be very different. I don’t dispute any of these arguments, well-supported as they are. What I’d like to see is a bit more understanding that the same exact articles have been written now for years, and that in Felix’s specific case, it is very, very difficult to see any kind of connection between lower velocities and injury and/or ineffectiveness. Felix is *constantly* changing and adjusting, which can set off alarm bells too, as other measures start to look weird, from pitch usage to release point. Picking injury risk out of data works a lot better when you’ve got an extremely consistent pitcher who then varies from the established pattern. It’s much, much harder to do that with Felix, and other guys like him – Zack Greinke, for one. I tried to make this point last year, and I’ll schedule a post about it next year, too.
Not every “Is Felix Hurt?” and “Felix is throwing 89!!!” piece hits the blogs in the spring, but there’s a pretty big glut of them in April and May. Why? Because Felix’s velocity, and essentially every other pitcher in baseball’s velocity, is lower in April. Average April velocities are the lowest of any month, with May next-lowest. If you’d like to get a clear, dramatic velocity drop, just compare a pitcher’s velo in April against their yearly average the previous year. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it’ll make the gap look huge. To make matters worse, the pitch fx values *themselves* are a little “cold” in April, as Max Marchi wrote years ago at BaseballProspectus. Later in that piece, Marchi notes that the pitch FX systems differ by up to a full MPH or so, with the slowest guns about a 1/2 MPH below average, and the fastest three-quarters of an MPH above. What are the *slowest* radar guns in baseball? They’re in Arlington (#1) and Oakland (#2). In recent years, the M’s have opened against Oakland, Anaheim and Texas, in April (or even March). Look back to many of the articles linked above and notice how many were written following starts in either Oakland or Texas. What’s the point? I don’t think we can accurately, definitively say that Felix’s velocity IS down in any real sense from last year. We can say it’s down from 2010, but that tells us nothing. Did Felix throw 89mph in his first start? No, he threw 91, and touched 93. What was his average velo in April of last year? 92. In 2012? 92. In 2013? 92. Let’s see where Felix’s velocity is in May, shall we?
Why do we keep doing this? Why do we seemingly *want* to point out Felix’s decline, even when his performance doesn’t really decline? I think Patrick Dubuque summed it up best in this piece, which argues that as Felix rate of improvement slows or even halts entirely, we reach for all manner of explanations, partially out of concern for the king, and partly because we have an endless firehose of data pointing at us, and it’s the easiest thing in the world to grab some and turn our worries into evidenced-based arguments. For non-M’s fans, this is even easier. The general pattern is clear, and Felix sets off plenty of alarm bells, and the trend really does look ominous. But *every year* since that first “Felix is losing velocity” piece back after the 2009 season (and that’s just the first I could find last night; there must be earlier ones), Felix has put up more fWAR/bWAR than *every year* prior to it (with the exception of 2015). Felix has been a better pitcher as an average velo guy with a diabolical change than he was when he was a plus-plus velocity FB and plus-plus curve guy. We *know* this, but we’re just scared that it’s going to stop. It WILL stop, eventually, and that’s going to really sting, but the methods we use to suss out that decline don’t work. M’s fans are drawn to this because we’re protective of Felix, and I can’t think of a worse end to his M’s tenure than an undiagnosed, untreated problem that suddenly becomes a career-threatener. Velo seems like it’d be a good way to find something like that, but Felix can’t be reduced to his sinker velocity. Felix is getting older. Felix won’t be royal forever. I know that we can’t, and won’t, but let’s all *try* to relax on the annual velo freak-outs.
2016 M’s Minor League Preview
Just think: it can’t be worse than last year. Tomorrow’s opening day across the full-season minor leagues brings with it the usual rush of optimism and joy, but really: there’s something kind of of nice about knowing that the season realistically can’t go any worse than last year did. DJ Peterson was bad, then hurt. Alex Jackson was awful, sent to extended ST, then started showing some signs in short-season ball. Clinton seemingly lost every game in August and September. Tacoma was relatively lucky to plod along around .500 and at the periphery of a AAA divisional playoff race. It was a tough, tough season for the four full-season clubs, but with some new coaches, new development staff and some new players, I’m excited to see what the year brings. I don’t want to bury the lede here: there’s no obviously loaded, don’t-miss-this team in the system. I don’t want to oversell things, but with any big organizational shake-up, there’s always the opportunity to see some changes in *how* players progress, and what messages click with what players. Given the focus on development in the organization, I think we’re going to have to fight the urge to ascribe every hot start to a change in teaching methods and/or personnel, but I relish the opportunity to be excited about the minors again. This organization was pretty bad at extracting production from the raw material of talent, and it’s going to be fun watching that change. Because, and I really, really don’t want to be proven wrong here, the bar can’t be lower.
Class A Midwest League: Clinton Lumberkings
Last year: just…don’t ask.
The Lumberkings have a new manager in ex-Oregon State catcher Mitch Canham, and are the lucky recipients of several players who played for Everett last year…you know, the only minor league club to post a winning record. Headlining the newcomers are CF Braden Bishop, the glove-first ex-UW Husky who hit .320/.367/.393 after being taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft. Joining him in what should be an extremely good defensive outfield are Ricky Eusebio, who started for Miami but played in the Arizona League after the draft. He’s even more of a glove-first guy than Bishop, and may need some time to adjust to the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. OF Luis Liberato flanked Bishop in Everett last year and offers a bit of power – something the Lumberkings aren’t likely to get from Bishop/Eusebio. As another guy who’s seen time in CF, the L’Kings could literally have three centerfielders patrolling the OF.
The IF is headlined by SS prospect Rayder Ascanio, a Venezuelan who just turned 20. He saw a bit of time with Clinton last year, after a push-promotion to the California League didn’t go so well. 12th round pick Logan Taylor will play multiple corner-IF positions; the righty got off to a torrid start for Everett before slumping in August.
The pitching staff is headlined by Nick Wells, a lanky lefthander the M’s got from Toronto in the Mark Lowe trade. He opened some eyes for Everett after the trade, giving up 2 runs on just 6 hits in 18 innings, and he’ll make his first start of the year on Sunday afternoon. Lukas Schiraldi (son of ex-Red Sox pitcher Calvin) gets the opening-day start, and he’ll be followed on Friday by Zack Littell, an 11th round pick out of a NC high school who’s garnered raves for his competitiveness and pitchability and who was Clinton’s best starter a year ago.
Position-player to watch: Tempting to go with Bishop or Wells, but I’m going to give the nod to Liberato. Intrigued to see what he can do against full-season pitching, and want to see if he can consistently hit some gaps in full-season ball. He’s nowhere near the defender Bishop is, but I’m hopeful he can make the leap in a tough hitting environment.
Pitcher to watch: Wells. He was only so-so in the months before the trade, but the improved command might he flashed in Everett might allow him to move quickly. The MWL might be a great environment for a fly-ball guy like Wells, too.
Opposing team to watch: Last year was all about the Astros affiliates, and the MWL was no exception, as Quad Cities dominated with a 88-50 record. Their staff combined to throw over 40 consecutive scoreless innings, they had a run differential over +200, you get the idea. They’re going to be good again, with an OF headed up by Kyle Tucker, the #5 pick in the 2015 draft and Daz (son of Mike) Cameron, whom the Astros picked at # 37.
Class Advanced-A California League: Bakersfield Blaze
Last year: 61-79
2016 marks the second year the M’s have been with Bakersfield, and hopefully this one goes a bit better. Bakersfield’s Sam Lynn ballpark is a unique environment, and for the California League (home to High Desert, for example), that’s saying something. Laid out such that the setting sun is *directly* in the eyes of the batter, the team needs to schedule its games around sunset. Further, with a gentle arc of an outfield wall, the centerfield fence is a mere 354 feet from home.
The Blaze struggled to score in the first half of 2015, but rode a hot Tyler O’Neill to a more normal mark in the second half. This year’s club is an interesting mix of holdovers from 2015 and those who’ve skipped over the Midwest League entirely. Representing the former group are catcher Tyler Marlette and IF Joe DeCarlo, while Drew Jackson (Everett’s NWL MVP) heads up the latter group. The IF looks relatively solid with Gianfranco Wawoe probably playing 2B to Drew Jackson’s 3B, and Joe DeCarlo’s 3B. Kyle Petty, who hit well in a nice winter league assignment with Adelaide of the Aussie League, will play 1B (he got time at 1B and C last year).
The OF’s a bit thinner with glove-first guy Austin Cousino in CF and linebacker-sized enigma Austin Wilson in RF. As I mentioned before, Wilson was an over-slot pick out of Stanford a while ago, and a huge, huge talent who underwhelmed a bit in college. Thus far in his pro career, he’s kicked the underwhelming into overdrive, but you never know when/if the new coaching crew unlocks some of his prodigious potential. Well-named OFs Chantz Mack and Arby Fields will also get some time, as will converted IF Brock Hebert.
The pitching staff is headed up by 2015 draft pick Andrew Moore, he of the sparkling 43:2 K:BB ratio in Everett. The raw stuff isn’t eye-popping but Moore is supposedly a guy who competes and uses his command to dominate batters, and that’s pretty much what we saw last year. Of course, the NWL is a much easier environment for college-trained pitchers, while the California League is…not. Just ask Ryan Yarbrough, who posted a 58:5 K:BB ratio before posting just a so-so line for Bakersfield last year. Another pitcher to look for is reliever Ramon Morla. If you’ve been following the system for a while, you may remember Morla as a power-hitting 3B prospect several years ago. Well, he’s now a reliever, and hey, I love position-player conversions. It’s Rafael Soriano’s fault.
Position player to watch: Gotta be SS Drew Jackson. After a middling career at the plate at Stanford, Jackson hit far better than most observers expected, and he’s shot up the M’s prospect rankings. This is a challenging assignment for him, and he’s going to need to prove he’s more than just a slap hitter who rode exceptional speed to a high batting average. Of course, exceptional speed isn’t a BAD thing: Jackson stole 47 bases for Everett while being caught just 4 times. He’s also got a plus-plus arm at SS.
Pitcher to watch: Andrew Moore. Another challenge assignment, and obviously the California League is murder on command/control guys. But if Moore can thrive here, he turns into an intriguing bargain prospect for the M’s. Oft-injured lefty Ryan Horstman didn’t pitch much in 2015, but also didn’t give up any runs, and he’s been an under the radar relief prospect who’s just struggled to stay healthy for the club.
Opposing team to watch: ex-M’s affiliate High Desert, now a Rangers affiliate, has 9 of the Rangers top 30 prospects.
AA Southern League: Jackson Generals
Last year: 53-84
Jackson’s run differential and raw stats weren’t quite as bad as their overall record, but they weren’t any good. A team that was supposed to be paced by top prospect DJ Peterson just never got the bats going, and with turnover and ineffectiveness in the rotation, it was just a year to forget. The Generals have some star power in the form of the M’s top pitching prospect, Edwin Diaz, who blew through the Cal League and pitched most of the year for Jackson a year ago. The skinny righty out of Puerto Rico can touch the mid-high 90s, and got some time in the Futures Game at the All-Star break last year. He’ll be joined by Ryan Yarbrough, the breakout star of 2014 who had some injury issues last year, and, perhaps unsurprisingly, couldn’t recapture the form he had with the AquaSox in High-A. Still, for a budget senior sign, he’s been a revelation, and now that he’s healthy, he could reclaim that top-10-in-the-org prospect status with a solid year. Dan Altivilla was a dominant Division II hurler when the M’s drafted him a few years back, and he had a good 2015 for Bakersfield as well. The right-hander had a great stretch in the middle of the year in which he struck out 58 to just 16 walks, but he fell off a bit towards the end of the year.
The big position player prospect is OF Tyler O’Neill, the stocky Canuck who hit over 30 HRs for Bakersfield, despite missing time to play with the Canandian National Team during the summer as well. DJ Peterson will get another shot at the Southern League to start out, though the 1B could move up to Tacoma fairly quickly with a hot start. 2B Tim Lopes has good speed, but the high minors will be a tough test for a guy who struggled at the plate before a minor break out in the California League last year.
The catchers are long-time M’s farmhands Steve Baron and Marcus Littlewood.
Joining O’Neill in the OF is Cuban CF Guillermo Heredia, who looked a bit rusty in the spring, which is to be expected for a guy who hadn’t played much in two years. Fellow speedsters Ian Miller and Leon Landry make this another extremely good defensive OF.
Position player to watch: With apologies to DJ Peterson, who may be getting underrated in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of prospecting, but it’s got to be Tyler O’Neill, who was one of very, very few solid raw talents to start translating that into in-game production and power.
Pitcher to watch: No surprises here: it’s Diaz, who can either make the leap into top-50 prospect or who’ll hear more and more chatter that his future is in the bullpen.
Opposing team to watch: The Cubs have had their day, so it’s not Tennessee this year. Instead, let’s go with the Brewers affiliate, the Biloxi Shuckers. The Brewers system was on life-support for a few years there, but a new front office has made a number of trades, and that’s allowed the Brewers to take a large slice of the Houston Astros prospects, and many of them are in AA this year. The group’s headed up by OF Brett Phillips, who dominated for the Astros before moving to Biloxi in the Carlos Gomez deal. C Jacob Nottingham played for Houston’s Quad Cities club last year before moving to Oakland, and then to Milwaukee in the Khris Davis deal more recently. They’re joined by an unheralded lefty starter who kept racking up results Josh Hader; Hader, you’ll be shocked here, came over from the Astros org in the Gomez deal, too. Homegrown corner OF Victor Roache was a first rounder back in 2012 after being one of the better power hitters in the minors for Georgia Southern. He hasn’t fared as well in the minors, but after a solid year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he could break out if he can learn to recognize pitches a bit better. The Mississippi Braves will be interesting to watch once SS Dansby Swanson joins them from the Carolina League.
AAA Pacific Coast League: Tacoma Rainiers
Last Year: 68-76
The roster churn throughout the org, mixed with some tough positional battles for the big club make the Tacoma roster kind of a transitional one – there are lots of veterans with big league time, and only a few promoted players. That’s more and more common in AAA, but there’s still plenty to talk about with Tacoma. Perhaps the biggest name is James Paxton, who went from #3 starter a year ago for Seattle to starting 2016 in the minors. This assignment probably stings, and how he responds is going to be critical. If he wants to commiserate, he can talk to his battery mate, Mike Zunino, who’s getting a reset season outside of the big league eye. Zunino obviously struggled much more than Paxton, and is saying all of the right things about working on his swing in the minors, but it’s got to be weird when the front office signs TWO catchers and all but publicly states that he’s not getting promoted this year. Still, that’s a hell of a starter and catcher, and Zunino’s framing figures to get the entire Tacoma staff some favorable counts.
The infield will look familiar to those who saw the team last year, with SS Chris Taylor and IF Shawn O’Malley playing all over, and corner IF/OF Stefen Romero doing the same at less demanding positions. Ex-Oregon State SS Tyler Smith joins the club after spending all of last year with Jackson.
The OF’s made up of some true PCL veterans, like Efren Navarro, a long-time Angels farmhand, and Mike Baxter, who got call-ups with the Cubs and Mets. Daniel Robertson was Navarro’s teammate in Salt Lake (and, briefly, Los Angeles) last year, too. Call-up Dario Pizzano was having a solid campaign for Jackson when he got hurt and missed six weeks last year; he’ll try to pick up where he left off while fighting for team with Navarro/Robertson. The CF, and biggest prospect, is Boog Powell who made a run at a spot on the M’s bench, but will start the year in AAA and getting more playing time. The ex-Rays prospect with an excellent batting eye may make his big league debut later this year. For a guy whose ceiling has been downplayed due to a lack of in-game power, the PCL is a good place to show some development in that area.
The pitching staff is a bit thinner behind Paxton, but the bullpen figures to be interesting. Lefty Paul Fry was, statistically, a dominant prospect, but Fry struggled a bit in the Arizona Fall League. If his command and velocity are back, he could be an effective reliever in any environment: Fry gave up a grand total of zero homers despite pitching in the Cal League and in AA last year. Justin DeFratus will try to get his career back on track; he was a solid member of the Philadelphia bullpen not long ago, and then after an inning or two this year, the M’s cut him and signed him to a minor league deal instead. The pitching star of spring training this year, righty Donn Roach, starts in Tacoma. The sinkerballing journeyman had been known for an otherworldly GB% and next to no missed bats, but he started racking up strikeouts in Peoria – he’s one to watch, and you could tell that the M’s were loathe to send him down. Other newcomers like Jonathan Aro, Cody Martin and long-time Orioles org guy Steve Johnson round out the bullpen. Former Padres and Rangers prospect Joe Wieland starts tomorrow’s opener, and he’ll be followed by Cody Martin, Paxton, and then Adrian Sampson (acquired for JA Happ) on Sunday. As Mike Curto notes, they may make a roster move tomorrow after learning that C Rob Brantly passed through waivers and was assigned to Tacoma. The club already had C Steven Lerud backing up Zunino.
Position player to watch: Mike Zunino. Many of us lamented Zunino’s rush through the minors and wondered what things would be like if he’d actually had some time to develop in the minors. He showed serious red flags the first time he came through Tacoma (though he showed plenty of encouraging things, too), and now he’s back with the psychological toll of sustained failure weighing on him. This whole experiment is predicated on the idea that you actually CAN go back and make up for lost developmental time. I think that’s *probably* true, as, say, Roy Halladay shows, but that it’s also not ideal. Of course, the ideal’s been gone a loooong time, and there’s no sense worrying about that now. The new org has been stressing the importance of development, and this is their primary job. New hitting coach Scott Brosius has a great reputation, and I’m excited to see if this works. And hey, if they’ve got some developmental mojo to smear on Chris Taylor, that’d be fantastic.
Pitcher to watch: Paxton. Can he stay healthy? Can his mechanics and newfound ability to pitch up in the zone make him more consistent that he’s been? It feels weird to even talk about Paxton here, so if you’d like, we can give the honor to Roach. Spring training is weird – remember Zunino hitting like .500 last year, or Mune Kawasaki lining base hits everywhere a few years ago? – but it’s just odd to see a guy who couldn’t strike out a folding chair in 2015 tear through big league line-ups the way he did. Maybe he’s learned something.
Opposing team to watch: This feels like an easy one this year. It’s got to be Round Rock, the Rangers affiliate, and the club that’ll be starting RF Nomar Mazara, 3B Joey Gallo, ex-Rainier/M’s prospect Pat Kivlehan, and former #1 prospect in baseball, Jurickson Profar. Mazara is a top-10-in-baseball prospect, and one of the best pure bats in the game, and the club could get even better when CF Lewis Brinson (another top-10 guy, and someone who ended the year in Round Rock) joins. Unfortunately for those of us in the northwest, Round Rock won’t be making the trip to Tacoma this year; we’ll have to catch them on MiLB.tv in May when the Rainiers visit.
If you’re looking for a prospect-laden club that’ll actually travel to Tacoma, then catch the OKC Dodgers when they visit Cheney in mid-July. They feature phenom Julio Urias, one of the best pitching prospects in the game, along with Zach Lee, a prospect who bounced back from an ugly 2014 and nearly made the Dodgers out of spring training this year. Rounding out their staff is Jharel Cotten, a solid right-hander from the Virgin Islands who breezed through High-A and AA last year, and Carlos Frias, who pitched against the M’s in the Cactus League. Their position players aren’t great shakes, but who needs them with that kind of rotation?
Fresno’s got 1B AJ Reed, 3B Colin Moran and CF Andrew Aplin, and they do the honorable thing and visit Tacoma multiple times (June, and late August).
Game 3, Mariners at Rangers
Wade Miley vs. Colby Lewis, 11:05am
After a triumphant, decisive win last night, the M’s have a great opportunity to win an early series at a divisional rival’s place today. Wade Miley makes his first official start for the M’s in something of a tough situation for him. At a very high level, he’s a middle-of-the-order guy who’s struggled at times with the home run, so playing in a park like Arlington’s going to challenge him (and everyone else, of course). That said, this *specific* game has some positives as well. First, Texas’ line-up has been re-jiggered a bit to get more right-handed bats in there. That makes sense given Miley’s pretty normal platoon splits, but it also means that the Rangers are throwing out something of a B team line-up, particularly down the batting order.
Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder are two of the Rangers’ best bats, but they’re also lefties. Miley will need to be wary of Adrian Beltre, but other than that, he’s going to face Ian Desmond (playing CF!!), Brian Holoday, Ryan Rua, Justin Ruggiano and Hanser Alberto. Rougned Odor’s another tough out, but he too bats lefty, making Miley’s job a bit easier. Choo’s platoon splits are fairly extreme, and it’s something that’s tugged his overall value down a bit, but Prince Fielder’s are sizable, too. This is a divisional game in a hitter’s haven, but this is still a favorable way for Miley to get his M’s career going.
Colby Lewis gets the start for Texas. The righty now throws in the high 80s, and has been dogged by platoon split issues of his own for many years. A more pressing concern has been health, as Lewis had Tommy John a few years ago. Impressively, he topped 200 IP last year for the first time in years, so he clearly put in the work, but I think that also says a lot about the dire situation the Rangers were in in 2014-15 with their pitching staff just decimated by injuries that Lewis was required to stabilize the rotation and become a workhorse.
Lewis throws a rising four-seam fastball and a lot of sliders at 83-84. He’s got a decent curve ball, but, like his change, he uses it sparingly and mostly against lefties. Lewis has great control, which is probably what’s kept him in the big leagues. Against lefties, he gets very few strikeouts and thus has a very high career FIP against them, but at least he doesn’t give up free passes. The M’s offense *liked* facing fly-ball pitchers (and Lewis is an extreme fly-ball guy) last year, and figures to do well against them again this year: Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager love pitches they can elevate and drive. It’s not dispositive, but it’s nice to see that Seager and Cano in particular have clubbed Lewis over their careers.
1: Martin, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Lind, 1B
6: Smith, DH
7: Sardinas, LF
8: Clevenger, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: Miley
Marte’s defensive lapses have been unfortunate, but it’s easy to chalk up to nerves. Something to keep an eye on, perhaps. Luis Sardinas, the utility man brought in in large part for his ability to play a competent SS, has now seen time at 1B and LF. The M’s will give the lefty-swinging Steve Clevenger his first start – a great move against a guy like Colby Lewis. Finally, after a spring in which pretty much no one could get him out, it’s great to see Seth Smith race out of the gates. As an M’s fan, it’s often hard to separate the beauty of a hitter’s swing from the results it produces, and I’m not sure I can, but I will just say that I love watching Seth Smith hit.
So, last night’s game was an entertaining one. After several innings in which pitching had the upper hand, the M’s broke through against the bottom half of the Rangers bullpen, getting to Federal Way’s Tony Barnette and then absolutely destroying Tom Wilhelmsen. Like many of you, it wasn’t as fun to see Wilhelmsen self-destruct as it would’ve been to see, I don’t know, Shawn Tolleson, but the M’s line-up looked much more potent than we’ve seen in a while. In a sense, that’s been the most surprising aspect of the first two games: the M’s got away from the all-HRs, no-glove approach and yet they’ve produced six HRs in two games with some pretty shoddy fielding thrown in. Whatever works.
Game 2, Mariners at Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Martin Perez, 5:05pm
What a strange, strange game we had yesterday. Felix’s command was awful, but he was still difficult to square up. The M’s new-look defense largely did OK on balls in play, but made critical errors in the 5th inning. Adam Lind in there against a tough lefty looked bad in hindsight, but I wonder if that wasn’t a slightly modified version of the old Joe Maddon “Danks Rule” – trying to take away a change-up specialist’s best pitch by hitting SAME handed hitters against him. Robbie Cano still looks great at the plate, and Mike Montgomery was something of a revelation, at least for a day.
We now have a whole game’s worth of pitch fx data, which is both fun to look at and too small to mean much. Following on gameday, Montgomery’s numbers were so anomalous that it looked like he was throwing a new pitch. Now, a day later, and after BrooksBaseball’s cleaned it up and recalculated stuff… it looks like he’s throwing a different new pitch. What I initially saw were a group of four-seam fastballs with sky-high – like, outrageously high – vertical movement. That’s *never* been a strength of Montgomery. He’s generated plenty of horizontal movement with his arm action and mechanics, but he doesn’t get big time spin rates or backspin. Yesterday, it looked like he did…at times. Brooks shows just a single change-up, but two really odd “sinkers” thrown around 90 with sub-0 vertical movement. I’m skeptical that such a pitch can actually be thrown (unless it’s thrown sidearm), but there they are. Do I think Montgomery can vary his fastball vertical movement by well over a foot? No, but… that’d be cool. And whatever he was throwing, it was working. Unfortunately for the M’s, the Rangers bullpen looked equally good.
Which means it’s all the more important that they get to lefty Martin Perez early today. Perez is a former hyped uber-prospect who’s never quite been able to get over the 4th-5th starter hump. He’s got solid velocity, decent-ish command of five pitches, and he keeps the ball on the ground (important when you play in Texas). Unfortunately, he’s got a couple of big problems that stand in the way of growth. First is simply health. Perez has missed time due to TJ surgery, which killed off nearly his entire 2014 season and much of his 2015 as well. But beyond that, he’s *always* struggled to strand baserunners. This is why a guy who yields suspiciously few home runs can *still* put up ugly ERAs in the current low-run environment. For his career, he’s stranded fewer than 70% of baserunners. His opponent today, Hisashi Iwakuma, sits at the other end of this distribution, with a career mark of nearly 79%, which is one reason FIP consistently under-values Kuma.
Why would this be? How real is this? That’s hard to tell, frankly, especially when Perez’s career been marred by an injury and a long rehab. And he was great at it in 2013, somewhat randomly. But this pattern was present in the lowest levels of the minors, and it’s what drove his AAA numbers into the toilet. With runners on, Perez walks more and strikes out fewer opponents, and that’s a big deal for someone who doesn’t miss many bats to begin with. Maybe he faces more hitters counts with runners on? Maybe he’s just not comfortable out of the stretch? Maybe it’s dumb luck? Let’s hope it keeps up today.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Gutierrez, RF
7: Iannetta, C
8: Lee, 1B
9: Martin, CF
Rosters for the M’s minor league clubs were set yesterday… we’ll have a look at the clubs in the next day or two, as the full-season minor league teams begin their season this Thursday.
Game 1, Mariners at Rangers
King Felix vs. Cole Hamels, 1:05
Happy Felix Day!
The M’s kick off their 2016 season as a strange kind of dark horse contender. They’ve completely overhauled the roster and the front office, and despite a painful 2015, and despite the myriad failings false starts dogging them, they’re neck and neck with some of the best teams in the American League. A lot of that has to do with today’s starter, a wise and magnanimous King. The M’s are going for the tenth straight opening day win in large part because Felix has started most of them.
I’m still too scarred to be truly optimistic – thanks, Jack Z – but I’m grateful for another opening day, and another opportunity to revel in the singular awesomeness of Felix and the unique-in-sports endurance race that is baseball’s regular season. I’m looking forward to new developments in the minors as well, and reading way too much into every early-season hot start as Andy McKay and the development staff try to work their magic and undo the damage of 2014-15 on the M’s prospects.
With that, here are some other projections/pronouncements on the upcoming season:
1: Texas is good, and they’re kind of going unnoticed.
Sure, the rotation’s kind of a mess, but that’ll get better when Yu Darvish returns, and they have a bit more depth in AAA than they did last year thanks to AJ Griffin. Their bullpen’s underrated, too. It’s probably just me, but I see the potential for an absolutely elite group, and I’m trying to take comfort in the fact that the projection systems don’t see it that way.
2: Scoring will be up in 2016. By a lot.
Jeff Sullivan talked about the increase in HRs in the THT Annual, and Dave mentioned it today as well, but I think we’ve seen the peak of the pitcher era in baseball, and we’re going to see the pendulum swing back towards the batters. Dave mentions the glut of young hitting prospects hitting the league, but I think the league is going to exert some pressure on umps to halt or reverse the strikezone’s seemingly relentless move down, and make pitchers throw at or above the knee again. I think the players and especially training methods have had an impact on players ability to drive pitches. That is, slugging on contact will rise in part because teams keep acquiring George Springer-types, but also in part because they’ve gotten better about how to develop and nurture them. Finally, I think temps may be slightly higher in this El Nino year, and that’ll help the bats. Good luck, M’s bullpen.
3: The M’s 40-man roster will look very different in August
On opening day several years ago, the M’s were projected to be a bottom-feeder (they were), but they had an aging roster. That was the classic case of a team that was due for a roster shake-up. This year’s M’s are quite different – they’re a bit younger, and they’re at a different spot on the win curve. But despite all of the churn, the *way* Dipoto’s built this roster is remarkably suited to plug-and-play. If the M’s race out of the gate and look to be a playoff team, they can shop for help at the deadline and deal their prospects – the ones Dipoto didn’t draft/develop. This is what Zduriencik did upon taking over the team, after all. If they struggle, they could move Seth Smith, Norichika Aoki, whichever relievers are pitching well and perhaps Wade Miley near the deadline, when prices are highest. The team’s got several talented guys in the lower minors who ooze potential but have terrible performance records: Austin Wilson, Gareth Morgan, Alex Jackson. DJ Peterson and Tyler O’Neill are two more similar hitters who have more of a track record, as well. No matter how the big club performs, a fast start by some of those guys and the right deal on the table, and Dipoto may decide to cut bait on guys who may not be stylistic fits for the new org.
Opening Day Lineup:
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Gutierrez, DH
7: Lind, 1B
8: Iannetta, C
9: Martin, CF
SP: FELIX. HERNANDEZ.
The M’s 2016: The Upside
Opening day *should* be about optimism, and while this M’s club has some weaknesses – weaknesses we’ve spent perhaps too much time measuring/analyzing – the club is projected where it is because they’re fundamentally a good team. We’ve talked a lot about the complementary pieces, but given the roster churn, I hope we can get back to marveling at what a healthy Robinson Cano/Nelson Cruz and Felix Hernandez can do. Sure, the projections still don’t know what to make of Leonys Martin and Luis Sardinas, but through the spring, there are a number of players who could blow their projections out of the water. If a few of these happen, the M’s are a playoff team.
In last year’s article, I talked about three things: Taijuan Walker, the M’s OF, and apparent weakness in the Angels and A’s, the M’s supposed rivals. Walker disappointed a bit, his 2015 destroyed by an awful start, and the M’s *offensive* production from the OF was everything we could’ve hoped for, it just came with a side of horrific defense. The Angels and A’s did, in fact, collapse, but unfortunately the Astros and Rangers took advantage instead of the M’s. Taijuan Walker could be on this list every year; don’t take the fact that he’s not detailed below as some sort of slight. I think his ability to jump from “somewhat frustrating prospect” to “above-average MLB pitcher” is obvious, and I don’t want to rehash it every year. As I mentioned yesterday, the OF’s offense looks set to decline from 2015, but that’s by design, and it isn’t a huge problem. The big change isn’t acquiring Leonys Martin, it’s moving Nelson Cruz from RF to DH, a move that I think all of us celebrate. Getting Cruz’s offense with none of the unpleasantness of his defense? Great. So, these are the new, emerging areas for optimism – they haven’t so much erased the others as added to them.
1: Ketel Marte
Even with the SS position a bit thin, the M’s group, headed by Marte, are projected to be in the bottom half of MLB. It makes some sense: Marte’s young, has very little power, and his great 2015 call-up was propelled by patience, a skill he hadn’t really shown in the minors. Even with the big boost he gets from SS, Marte’s projected at under 2 fWAR in (mostly) full time play. Chris Taylor has been bad and is projected to remain bad, but still has a better projected OBP than Marte. So why’s Marte here, and not in the pessimistic post? Because the more you watch him, the more you start to believe that his bat-to-ball skills are as good as scouts say.
Marte’s skill set can *only* work with an elite hit tool. Not just an ability to avoid strikeouts, but an ability to hit the ball hard. This is the reason I was lower on Marte than others; I just didn’t see that kind of ability in the handful of times I saw him in Tacoma. But he followed his eye-opening 2015 with an even better spring, and he seems to be making the adjustments he needs to make. He’s gone from a guy who hit .300 by putting everything in play and running fast to a guy who’s hitting far more gaps than he did in the low minors. As a player who was often young for his league, and a player who’ll be just 22 this year, that kind of progression is great to see, and the fact that it’s been so consistent makes it less likely to be a PCL or small-sample mirage.
The SS position overall’s kind of in flux right now, as four of the top eight projected shortstops are guys with less than a year of MLB service time. The bottom of the list is dotted with a number of disappointing veterans who project even worse – Alexei Ramirez, Jonathan Villar, the over-ripe JJ Hardy, the just-happy-to-be-here Freddy Galvis. Putting that group aside, as even the projections see the Marte as superior, the more you look into it, the easier it gets to see Marte leapfrogging some of his divisional rivals, and joining his peers near the top of the rankings. Marcus Semien’s projected ahead of Marte despite his poor defense thanks largely to his power, but is it crazy to see Marte topping Semien’s projected .402 SLG%? Given the gap in contact rates, I don’t think it’s crazy at all. The Rangers second half surge last year was helped along by Elvis Andrus, who got himself off the autopsy table and started contributing again. He, too, is projected to outproduce Marte, thanks in part to superior defense. But Andrus isn’t the 10+ run-saving wizard he was five years ago, and his offense is now solidly 20% below league average. Worse, his platoon splits have become more and more obvious; his 2015 “rebound” was helped by seeing a lot more lefties than he did in 2014. He simply can’t hit righties anymore, and that makes him vulnerable in high-leverage at-bats in a way that Marte isn’t.
If he can sneak past those guys, it’s not crazy to think he could end the year as a top 10 shorstop. Fangraphs’ 8-10 are Addison Russell, Didi Gregorius and Brad Miller. Marte’s contact skills are worlds better than Russell and Miller’s, and he may hit the ball harder than Gregorius. Russell’s projection is helped by his defense – he purportedly saved over 17 runs defensively despite not playing the whole year, and Gregorius is another glove-first guy. Miller obviously lost his starting gig in Seattle thanks to defensive concerns that UZR just hasn’t seen, but he too is projected to out-defend Marte. Now: is it unreasonable to think that, if things break right, Marte could out-produce a young SS who might strike out in 30% of is plate appearances? Or the guy whose job he took six months ago? Or a no-hit SS playing in a bandbox whose projection is boosted by a one-year spike in UZR last year? I feel like I’m preaching to the choir here, but despite the M’s constant tinkering, shortstop was never really a problematic position for the M’s. It’s not projected to be one this year. But the M’s – and Marte – seem like they could be on the cusp of making it a real competitive advantage for years.
The obvious, obvious counterpoint to all of this is that M’s fans know better than anyone that a solid half-season call-up does not a future all-star make. From Willie Bloomquist to Jeremy Reed to Dustin Ackley to Brad Miller, the M’s have seen quite a few players impress in their first tour of the majors and then never reach that level of production again. What separates Marte from Chris Taylor or Ackley? This is where Marte’s abilty to square up tough pitches, and plus velocity, becomes important. Reed and Ackley took plenty of walks in the minors, but couldn’t consistently translate that to the majors. Ackley in particular can look extremely similar to Marte: in 2013, Ackley hit grounders about 50% of the time, kept his K’s under 20% and had a solid but not great walk rate. That 88 wRC+ is essentially dead on Marte’s projection. That wouldn’t be the end of the world, given Marte’s position, but if we learned anything from Ackley’s time in Seattle, it’s that not all grounders are created equal.
Last year, Ackley hit over half of the balls in play tracked by Statcast between 80-100 MPH. He hit .200 on those balls-in-play. Just under half of Marte’s balls-in-play fell into this mid-range, 80-100mph zone, but Marte’s speed produced a .360 BABIP on them (it helps that, as a switch hitter, Marte wasn’t hitting every grounder to second base). Ackley’s over-100mph balls-in-play jumped markedly after his trade to NY, so they both look good on that score, but the point is that *even if his batted ball profile doesn’t change* Marte can wring more value out of it than Ackley.
2: Nate Karns
Karns won the 5th spot in the rotation almost by default, as James Paxton looked off throughout the spring. That said, as a guy coming off a sneaky-good 2015, he gives the M’s rotation the potential to easily surpass their already-good projections. 5th starters aren’t generally workhorses, and Karns only tossed 147 IP for the Rays, the team that let their starters pitch the fewest the innings last year. But it’s not just that Karns’ rate stats look a bit low, it’s that he’s only projected for 130 IP. Give him 160-180, and you’ve got a 5th starter creeping up on league average.
Of course, if that was his upside, I probably wouldn’t highlight him here. Luckily, I don’t think that’s his ceiling. Anyone who combines a high strikeout rate with some tantalizing signs of being able to ‘beat’ FIP through strand rate and BABIP has the potential to add real value. Karns high-fastball and improving change-up mean he doesn’t have the platoon split worries that many pitchers face. Over his career, he’s actually been better against lefties than righties. When he’s been hurt, it’s been against right-handers.* The M’s know that there are several things that jump out as regression candidates here: first, those reverse platoon splits should be regressed, and then his HR/FB ratio, particularly against righties, may come down as well. Just do the latter and it essentially accomplishes the former, after all. A version of Nate Karns with strikeouts and a better SLG%-against versus righties starts to look pretty good.
The other big factor affecting Karns’ home run rate is his home park. Just as with the relievers the M’s acquired, Karns’ elevated HR-rate figures to drop if only because he’s moving from a solid hitter’s park in a hitter-friendly division to a pitcher’s park on the marine layered west coast. If that was the only thing happening, it’d help. But I hope Karns takes it a step further, and uses Safeco to build confidence in throwing the ball up in the zone. Here’s how Karns has used his fastball against right-handers. Plenty of elevated four-seamers, but there are a lot of low and away and low-middle pitches, too. Now take a look at the average batted-ball speed by location for Karns, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
I’m not suggesting Karns should abandon the low strike entirely, but Karns’ movement and his new home park are tailor-made to just target the top of the zone or above it like Chris Young. Let the curve ball do the work low in the zone – it’ll be harder to pick up, and batters hit the curve softer than they hit his fastball last year anyway.
Another thing that’s preventing Karns from making the leap to middle-of-the-rotation workhorse, it’s his control. While his K/9 sits among some elite pitchers, his walks/9 sticks out as a problem. Could Safeco help with that as well? Maybe, but this may just be a part of his game going forward, or he may not be able to materially improve his walk rate without a corresponding increase in homers. Luckily, there are a few examples of pitchers who’ve become very good starters with similar K and BB numbers. Lance Lynn of the Cardinals posted a 22.2% K rate and a 9.1% BB rate last year. Karns’ numbers, in the American League, mind you, were 23.4% and 9.0%, respectively. Lynn, a fastball-heavy pitcher without much of a change-up, has big platoon splits as well. He’s been effective despite of these red flags by keeping his strand rate high. Part of that may be whatever Cardinals devil magic allowed their BABIP to tumble with runners in scoring position, but part of it seems to be a choice not to give in to hitters: Lynn’s K rate AND walk rate rose with RISP. Hector Santiago has a similar arsenal to Karns, and has carved out a nice little career posting consistently low ERAs and ugly FIPs thanks to a combo of walks and homers. Santiago’s strategy with men on is essentially the same as Lynn’s: his walk rate gets close to 5 per 9IP with RISP, but his BABIP collapses at the same time, leading to a lot of stranded runners. Karns’ strand rate was in the same range as Santiago and Lynn last year, and again, his home park may make it easier for him to target the top of the zone with RISP where BABIP is lower and whiffs higher than the center or bottom of the zone. Santiago was worth 2.5 fielding dependent WAR last year, while Lynn added 3.6 (and over 4 in 2014), so this seems like a fairly easy path to middle-of-the-rotation success for Karns.
3: The Astros Have Breakout Potential and Weaknesses in Roughly Equal Measure
The Astros have Carlos Correa, the best projected SS in baseball, and a lot of talent in the upper minors to boot. They’re the favorites for a reason, and they look likely to be the favorites for years and years, considering the age of their core: Correa is 21, Jose Altuve is not yet 26, George Springer is 26, and Dallas Keuchel is an old man at 28. It should be easy to build around a core like that, and as last year’s remarkable run showed, they’ve proven fairly adept at that. Still, it’s not like they’ve built a juggernaut. There’s a reason their projections are just a tiny bit better than the M’s, and they’ve got concerns sprinkled around their 25-man roster.
Their catching group is headed up by Jason Castro, a 28 year old who’s essentially been the starter since 2012. He came through the minors as a guy with great patience and enough contact skills to be a real asset at the plate, and while he wasn’t exactly good in his debut year of 2010, he posted a solid walk rate and a K rate under 20%. Improve the BABIP, and you’d have something. After losing a year to injury, that’s what Castro did: an improved BABIP led to a nearly league-average line in 2011, and if the Ks crept up, they were still well under control. In 2013, Castro appeared to break out – trading lots more Ks for lots more pop, his overall line was about 30% *better* than the league average. Since then, though, Castro has collapsed. Last year, his K rate soared to over 30%, and his production has tumbled to the point where he’s now about as far below league average as he was above it in 2013. As anyone who watched Mike Zunino (or JP Arencibia) knows, aging curves are different for different players, and the Astros can’t just assume Castro’s offense will bounce back.
The Astros had a great catcher in the low-minors who posted a breakout season last year, but they ended up trading him to Oakland in the Scott Kazmir deal (Oakland then swapped him for Khris Davis). Nottingham will start the year in AA and could theoretically see the Majors this year for the rebuilding Brewers. He’d look great as insurance for Castro. As it is, the Astros just traded for veteran back-up Erik Kratz, a 35 year old who hasn’t posted an OBP over .280 since 2012. If Castro continues to slide, there’s just not much the Astros can do to staunch the bleeding. Their top C prospect is Alfredo Gonzalez, who broke out across three levels last year, but Gonzalez was mediocre-to-average for four years prior to that, and in any event doesn’t crack the Astros top 20 prospects.
For a team that hit so well, the Astros have really struggled to get even adequate production out of 1B and DH. The M’s know all about that, of course, but it’s odd given that the Astros can find 20 year old shortstops with power to spare, or get a bunch of HRs out of ex-2B prospect Luis Valbuena. But while Chris Carter had his moments with Houston, the Astros let him walk and turned over their 1B job to Jon Singleton. Singleton face-planted in 2014, and has done everything in his power to turn the job down. The Astros depth at 1B is much, much better than it is at catcher, so this doesn’t seem like a big problem at first. The Astros plan is to have Tyler White start, and if he fails, they’ll give it to top prospect AJ Reed.
White’s an interesting prospect, as he’s a low draft pick who’s destroyed minor league pitching at every level, but he’s never been seen as a top prospect. Part of the problem has been his age-relative-to-league, but the biggest red flag is his lack of home run power. White’s walked more than he’s struck out, and he’s hit enough doubles to post great wRC+ at every level of the minors, so many Astros fans believe the 1B position will be a strength starting today. But as August Fagerstrom wrote about at Fangraphs, this player type – the high BB, gap hitting, low-HR 1B – has an awfully high bust potential. Anyone who cut their prospecting teeth in the years following Money Ball’s publication can probably rattle off the names Fagerstrom pulls up: Daric Barton was a can’t miss, big-league hitter for the A’s, until he did in fact miss. Dan Johnson seemed even more similar to White, and he’s now a knuckleball pitcher. Justin Smoak was a heralded prospect, and his minor league lines are somewhat similar, though White’s been better overall. Clint Robinson mashed in the KC system, and had plenty more power than White, but hasn’t really been able to get a major league job.
The name I thought of that surprisingly wasn’t on the list was another ex-KC 1B, a name familiar to anyone following the minors 10 years ago: Kila Ka’aihue. Ka’aihue had more power, but was known most of all for his walk rate. White’s 12-17% walk rates are elite, no doubt, but Ka’aihue posted *20%* walk rates in both AA and AAA. White walked more than he K’d at AA, but Ka’aihue had TWICE as many walks as Ks at the same level. Given an (overdue) shot in 2010 with the Royals, Ka’aihue just failed to hit despite a decent K:BB ratio. Maybe White is more Olerud than Ka’aihue, but even Olerud needed an adjustment period (it didn’t help that he went straight from WSU to the majors, of course). White’s stats and major league equivalencies are great, but not swinging at anything except middle-middle pitches works wonders in the minors and just doesn’t work as well in the AL.
Meanwhile, the Astros grabbed Evan Gattis to be their DH, then watched him get off to a horrendous start. He improved down the stretch (while his teammates imploded), but has suffered through injuries this spring, and will begin the year on the disabled list. Preston Tucker may start the year as the DH, and while Tucker was league average at the plate last year, he’s projected to be a replacement level DH this year. If Gattis’ injuries linger, this could become a problem. Sure, everyone expects AJ Reed to hit the moment he arrives, but he can’t play two positions, and top prospects often need a while to get established (okay, sure, Correa sure didn’t). These aren’t huge flaws for the Astros, but they’re weaknesses, and with the M’s so close in true talent, neither team may be able to survive a 2-3 WAR under-performance.
Let’s go M’s.
* This is similar to James Paxton, who’s seen line-ups stacked with righties even as he’s *struggled* against lefties.
The M’s 2016 : The Risks
The M’s open the season tomorrow against Texas, the start of a long season in an AL West that’s almost unrecognizable from last year. Houston’s *good* now? Texas can win despite an ongoing injury plague of biblical proportions? Los Angeles is…well, actually, they look pretty bad at the moment, but we’ll get to that in the optimistic post. Despite the roster churn, despite the fact that there isn’t a really bad club in the division (or maybe the League), despite last year’s disappointments, the M’s are in a pretty good position. The projection systems all have them a few wins above .500 in a very tightly packed race, and that means the M’s playoff odds aren’t bad. With an aging but still elite core, the team could very easily blow those projections out of the water. But any M’s fan who’s been paying attention for a year or more knows that risks are always lurking. Last year, I ran delved into a few of those risks, including regression by Mike Zunino and a bad bullpen, and, well, those risks kind of killed the team. I am quite confident that lightning won’t strike twice, and I look forward to laughing about these in August. For a team that’s undergone as much turnover as the 2016 M’s, the same issues won’t crop up again. R…right?
Last year’s risks were a disparate grouping of things, from Mike Zunino’s plate discipline to Austin Jackson’s aging to bullpen regression. There really wasn’t a common theme tying them together. This year, I see the same basic issue with all of them; they’re all different iterations of the same basic problem. That problem can be stated rather bluntly: many of the players the M’s brought in around their core were terrible last year. If you’re economically minded, you can talk about buy-low candidates, or the benefits of regression. Finance types might talk about undervalued assets. If you’re sabermetrically inclined, Fangraphs will give several reasons for hope: an absurd HR:FB ratio, a FIP lower than an ERA, a batter whose line doesn’t fit with his batted ball ratio, an aching wrist, etc. There are plenty of ways to couch and caveat the central truth here, but that truth is rather troubling for a contending ballclub: the M’s went out and acquired players who sucked in 2015.
1: The Bullpen
Last year, the M’s bullpen was actually *supposed* to be good. Well, they were supposed to be in the top half anyway, after a surprisingly good 2014. That didn’t happen, obviously, and thus it’s the bullpen that’s seen the most turnover. Of the top 10 in projected IP last year, only Charlie Furbush and David Rollins are still with the club, and the former’s on the DL and the latter’s in the minors. Fernando Rodney was DFA’d, Carson Smith, Yoervis Medina, Tyler Olson, Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen and Dom Leone were all traded, and Lucas Luetge was essentially waived. The M’s were able to restock through trades, free agency and the like, and a clear pattern’s emerged: the M’s have tried to acquire guys with clear skills and…spotty performance records.
Evan Scribner posted a brilliant K:BB ratio but gave up plenty of runs thanks to a barrage of HRs. Ryan Cook’s season was mercifully cut short as he tried to come back from injury. Nick Vincent was felled by shoulder trouble and a ridiculous BABIP. Joel Peralta had a low-key version of Evan Scribner’s year on his way to a sub-replacement-level campaign for the Dodgers. Steve Cishek’s control left him, and the same overall contact rate as he’s always allowed somehow produced far fewer strikeouts. Again, there are clear and easy sabermetric reasons to bet on improvement, but even WITH regression, the M’s bullpen’s projected to be the worst in the AL.* If that’s anywhere close to true, the M’s are going to find it hard to beat back the Astros and hold off the Rangers. Last year, Oakland had a great run differential through the first half and a terrible, terrible record thanks to their bullpen. No one’s forecasting the kind of horrific luck or historically bad performance that befouled the Coliseum to happen to the M’s, but it’s an example of how important a bullpen can be to a team’s success.
It’s a measure of how consistently the M’s have opted for bounce-back guys that the exception to this rule is Joaquin Benoit, who’ll turn 39 this year (while Peralta will be 40). Surrounding these newbies are what passes for home-grown talent around here – two guys the M’s acquired last year: Tony Zych and Mike Montgomery. Zych’s coming off a shocking, out-of-nowhere 2015, in which he went from minor league cast-off who was literally acquired for a dollar to potential set-up man with a 96mph fastball and hellish slider. That sounds great, and it is, but of course Zych was sold for $1 for a reason: he was awful in AA in 2014, and his AAA stat line shows that his 2015 major league call-up may have been a bit lucky. Optimists may say Zych’s K% rise from 2014 and from AA to AAA to the big leagues as the product of mechanical changes, a change in mental outlook, or what have you. Pessimists might point out that relievers who dazzle in less-than-20 IP samples are more common than you’d think. Montgomery was a starter whose performance fell off badly in the second half, and has been moved to the bullpen by necessity; he’s out of options, and probably wouldn’t have made it through waivers. Thus, the fastball-change-up specialist, the guy with large reverse platoon splits, will be the second lefty in the pen and will get to face left-handed bats despite not having an average or plus pitch to throw at them.
Every bullpen is volatile, and given the M’s needs at other positions and costs tied up in Cano/Cruz/Felix/Iwakuma, it probably makes some sense to go bargain shopping in the bullpen. But there’s hoping for regression, and there’s identifying and correcting flaws. From the outside, we just have to hope that the M’s are doing some of the latter. The singular focus on the park and a specific *kind* of regression – that is, counting on lowered HR rates going forward – makes me wonder, though. Steve Cishek, the M’s anointed closer, has essentially average GB rates. Behind him, the M’s are absolutely stacked with rising-fastball guys with ground ball percentages in the low-30s. Vidal Nuno, Scribner, Benoit, Vincent, Peralta – they’re all career 33-36% GB guys. The only potential GB guy is Tony Zych, who simply hasn’t thrown enough to know for sure. Who do they go to if they need a ground ball in a key situation in the 7th? Just bring in Cishek? Zych, even if the batter’s a lefty? Nuno? You look down at AAA, and outside of Donn Roach, it’s the same thing: Jonathan Aro, Cody Martin, Joe Weiland are all high-FB, low ground ball pitchers. Last year, the M’s hoped their park (and the other AL West venues) would help their pen avoid HR troubles, but that hope was dashed. The new GM has changed out nearly the entire pen for guys who gave up even *more* HRs. The new Safeco isn’t some instant fix for players with gopher ball problems. Yeah, you say, but HRs can’t stay high forever, right? Except that they grew league-wide last year (and this spring!), and despite the true-in-the-aggregate nostrum that HR:FB ratios tend to average out, some players give up lots of HRs because they throw bad pitches. Fingers crossed, M’s fans.
2: The Catcher spot
Last year, M’s catchers “hit” .160/.208/.259, as Mike Zunino imploded and the M’s had to turn to perhaps the most purely defensive catcher in decades, Jesus Sucre. Let’s be clear here: the M’s catchers will be better, because that 2015 line is mind-bendingly bad. The former FO should’ve been fired for that alone. Anyway, Jerry Dipoto wisely saw that an upgrade at catcher could help transform the offense and might not cost a lot. So, he went and got Chris Iannetta, his hand-picked C in Anaheim, and a guy he’d helped draft in Colorado. Iannetta’s walk rate alone makes him an attractive option at the plate, but Iannetta’s got enough power that pitchers can’t just throw down the middle. So far, so good, but Iannetta, who’ll turn 33 next week, is coming off a line of .188/.293/.335 line, good for an 80 wRC+.
As with the relievers, there’s a clear, sabermetric-101 explanation here. Iannetta’s awful average on balls in play helped push his average – and thus his line – south of the Mendoza line. Still: Iannetta’s a catcher in his mid-30s. His career BABIP wasn’t exactly good, and it’s projected to be just below .270, which has his average down in the .210 range. Thanks to his walk rate, Iannetta’s average matters less than it does for most players (and that’s a low bar to begin with), but a low average nukes some of the value of that patience. A sub .300 OBP is bad, whether it’s from an over-praised .280 swing-at-anything hitter or a patient-but-declining catcher with a 12% walk rate.
Iannetta is used to spacious home parks, but that doesn’t mean he’s thrived in them. He had large home/road splits last year, performing poorly at home and better on the road. Even in his very good 2014, he struck out more at home, and had a better overall line on the road – a kind of cosmic payback for his years at altitude, I guess. Of course, performing worse in a pitcher’s park is to be expected, and given the overall run environment, doesn’t really matter. But last year makes you wonder if he’s the kind of hitter who needs an architectural thumb on the scale.
The BABIP of .225 can’t last, but then you notice that his fly ball rate spiked and his hard contact rate hit its lowest level since he was a rookie and you start to wonder how much of this “fluke” was equal parts “aging” and “change in approach.” Again, the M’s are saying all the right things about development and coaching at the big league level, and having a former player development chief as the field manager could work. But M’s fans have seen how catchers can fall off a cliff – Miguel Olivo was solid, then awful-and-a-Mariner, then league average, then awful-and-a-Mariner again and then his career as a full-time C was over. Kelly Shoppach was clearly a poor man’s Chris Iannetta and looked like another savvy buy-low pick-up until he cratered and, like Olivo, never got another shot.
Luckily, the M’s got a back-up that’d enable Mike Zunino to spend a year in AAA and really work on his swing. Whatever happens this year, that’s a great move. What made it possible was acquiring Steve Clevenger from Baltimore. Clevenger’s not a defender, which has really hurt his chances of earning a full-time gig. He’s been a back up for the Cubs and Orioles, and unfortunately for him, failed repeatedly in small call-ups. Last year was his best year by far (why on earth was HE targeted, Jerry?), but he still put up a below-average line in 100 or so PAs. In the minors, the ex-infielder showed Iannetta-like patience, but in the majors, it’s been accompanied by Iannetta-in-2015 averages, which has sunk his value. Last year, his overall line was much better, but he didn’t walk *at all* – his BB% collapsed to under 4%. If this new approach works better, that’s fine. But let’s be clear: the back-up to a 33-year old Chris Iannetta, coming off an 80 wRC+, is a 30 year old (hey, happy birthday, Steve!) career back-up who’s hit .228/.280/.327 over more-or-less one full season. That that’s better than what Sucre would give you doesn’t matter. Kind of like the bullpen, if we look back at another smoking crater of a catcher position, it’ll be hard to be too surprised. 33 year old starter, untested back-up, Mike Zunino. If it works, it’s great, but everyone knows there’s collapse potential here.
3: Center Field
Leonys Martin’s floor is higher than the other two risks thanks to his defense. His glove (and, really, his arm) is good enough that the M’s can carry his bat because he’ll be saving runs for the pitching staff no matter what he does at the plate. But again, this is the same reasoning that kept a traumatized Mike Zunino in the line-up. Martin had several ailments that, in part, explain his putrid line of .219/.264/.313, but this is the player – ailments and all – that the M’s have entrusted their CF spot to. The M’s got almost nothing from center fielders in 2014, and they nearly made the playoffs – a good line-up can carry a bad spot, especially at a premium defensive position. But given the risks elsewhere, it’d be nice if they didn’t have to.
Martin’s collapse in 2015 followed a solid 2014. Unlike Iannetta, though, that “peak” wasn’t very high. Martin hit .275/.325/.364, which, when you play half your games in Arlington, is only worth an 89 wRC+. The larger problem is that the power he showed – at times – in Cuba and in his early years with Texas has dried up. To be clear, a worse-than-average hitter can still be valuable, as we’ve seen with Kevin Kiermaier in Tampa, or Martin in 2014. But after posting ISO-power in the .130 range, he’s been under .100 for two straight seasons. In Arlington. Moving to Seattle is certainly not going to help that, and while healing his wrist might, it’s certainly odd that his *lowest* ISO came in his “good” 2014 campaign.
And that brings us to defense, that skill that seems the least likely to suffer slumps, but also the one we know the least about identifying and measuring. Martin’s been one of the best defenders for a few years, but there’s something odd about many public measures of defense, especially for team switchers. Shane Victorino was an average defender in Philadelphia, then, if you believe UZR, one of the best in baseball for Boston in 2013, and then below average after that. Martin’s teammate David Murphy had a very solid 2013, then instantly became one of the league’s worst offenders after moving to Cleveland. Michael Bourn: very good with Houston, great with Atlanta, and then instantly terrible with Cleveland. Yunel Escobar was great early on, then had two diametrically opposed years with Tampa before an awful one in DC. Chase Headley was awful in San Diego and great in New York, etc. There’s no rhyme or reason here, and this is obviously not a scientific study, but it’s not *obviously* random. Each park has its unique wind patterns, layout and sight lines; one really could become an expert in knowing how a ball will move in one park and be a step behind in another. This is important, because Martin’s value is so, so dependent on his defense, and there’s just not much depth behind him.
Boog Powell’s an intriguing prospect, but when so many scouts give him the 4th OF tag, it’s clear he’s not going to start the year in AAA because of service time concerns. He’s got a bit more to prove, especially after a moderately disappointing 2015. He had nowhere to play in Tampa, and getting him in the Nate Karns/Brad Miller swap was exactly what the M’s needed. But while the walk rate means his margin for error is larger, the lack of power means it may not play in the majors (ask Steve Clevenger).
The M’s CFs don’t have to be good. They’re projected as a bottom-half group – about where the M’s have been projected in recent years. But just as the M’s didn’t wring a lot of “but regression!” out of Austin Jackson, they can’t bank on the 2 or so fWAR Martin’s projected for, either. Safeco can be a tough hitting environment – for the bullpen’s sake, let’s hope it is – and it’s tough to ask a guy coming off a horrendous year mentally and physically to make some necessary improvements in the thick of the marine layer. This situation is a bit different from the previous two, in that a 28 year old starter and a near-ready 23 year old prospect and perhaps an out-of-position Norichika Aoki just doesn’t scream “collapse,” but the M’s could really use some production here. Austin Jackson wasn’t awful last year, but he was bad enough that he provoked some panic in the M’s, leading to the ill-advised move of Brad Miller to the OF (and Ketel Marte to CF in Tacoma, albeit briefly). I think Dipoto’s hand will be a bit steadier on the tiller, but this is the full, terrible lesson that certain Mariners teams seem born to teach: each individual failing cascades and multiplies, like the butterfly effect but for dung beetles, and it takes bystanders, seasons, and contention windows with it.
It probably won’t be that bad, but I don’t think I need to remind you that it was, in fact, that bad in 2015. To turning over new leaves! Go M’s!
* Thanks to late-breaking trades and injuries, the M’s have crept above the Tigers in the most recent projections. Onward and upward!
Welcome, Nick Vincent
It’s not technically the final roster decision – the M’s haven’t announced the winner of the back-up catcher competition, but it’s going to be Steve Clevenger – but the M’s solidified their bullpen by trading for ex-Padres righty Nick Vincent a few days ago. The M’s and Pads had been negotiating about a few relievers, including Vincent and fellow RHP Kevin Quackenbush,* and the M’s finally pulled the trigger on a trade for Vincent, sending a PTBNL to San Diego.
There’s a lot to like in Vincent’s stat lines. In 150 innings, he’s racked up 161 against only 39 walks, and has a career ERA and FIP in the mid 2’s. That’s not bad for a late-Spring guy who was acquired for a PTBNL and was in serious danger of needing to pass through waivers (Vincent’s out of options). Why would the Padres move a cheap, effective reliever? Well, for one, Vincent’s essentially a righty specialist. Not that he’s necessarily been used that way, but few players have the kind of platoon splits that Vincent shown. There are positives and negatives there, of course – he’s struggled against lefties, with a middling K:BB ratio against them and a FIP over 4. On the other hand, he’s been really, freakishly good against righties. His career K:BB against righties is an Evan Scribner-like 113:12, and they’ve managed just 3 HRs (sure, Petco helps, but that’s still pretty amazing). If you’re going to carry a specialist, you need them to be *dominant* at their specialty, and Vincent meets that test. Besides, there’s always a chance, however slim, that a guy manages to escape ROOGY jail and become an all-around shut-down reliever – this is what Darren O’Day managed, and Vincent’s four-seam fastball has eerily similar results to O’Day’s against righties.
The other big red flag with Vincent has been health. He’s missed time with a forearm strain and, last year, shoulder pain. Neither required surgery, but they limited his IP and sound a bit worrying. The injuries sapped his effectiveness and velocity a bit, which is how a guy who’d averaged over 1 full fWAR per year in 2013-14 spent most of last year in the minor leagues. That velocity is somewhat important, because Vincent has very little margin for error. You’d think a guy throwing 90mph with shockingly bland movement would either be a ground-ball guy and/or some kind of side-arming Sean Green slider machine. That’s not Vincent, though. Vincent has a normal 3/4 release point, and essentially dead-on average movement from his four-seam fastball and his bread and butter, a hard cutter at 87-88. His best pitch, results wise, is his fastball, which he throws up in the zone, resulting in lots of fly balls. Essentially, Vincent is a relief version of Chris Young, without the freakish height or ‘rise’ on his fastball.
The sheer averageness of his fastball becomes oddly fascinating the more you really think about it. Chris Young has carved out a career defying FIP by limiting his HR/FB. It’s weird, but not THAT weird, because his fastball’s designed to get a certain kind of contact. Vincent’s got the Young-esque HR/FB (Vincent’s 5.3% is lower than Young’s career 8.1%), but also gets swings and misses, which means he settles back into good-FIP territory. One difference is that Young has to do his high-wire act against lefties and righties alike. Vincent’s line, and all of that Chris Young magic, is partly the result of his usage. Against lefties, Vincent’s HR/FB starts to look normal, and his K:BB (and FIP) edge closer to replacement level. But as I said before, that just highlights how *good* he’s been righties.
I’ve mentioned it many times in the past few years, but moving to the AL West is a real test for platoon-plagued immigrants from the National League. He may face a few more lefties than he did in his brilliant 2014 campaign, as he faces the A’s and Astros mix-and-match line-ups. That said, I wonder if we’ve reached peak platoon in the AL. Many of the great young stars entering the league – Carlos Correa, Mookie Betts, Miguel Sano – are right-handed, and the league’s best hitters include righties like Trout, Donaldson, Bautista, and Cabrera. The M’s could *use* a shut-down righty. If Vincent stays healthy, he could help the M’s in critical situations. There aren’t that many out-of-options, 90mph-fastball, sent-to-the-minors last year, injury-plagued players you can say that about.
* Hat tip to Zach Sanders, who called this on twitter. I thought Dipoto might prefer Quackenbush, whose repertoire fits the Scribner/Joel Peralta mold that the M’s seem to like – extreme vertical movement on the fastball, 12-6 curve. Quackenbush even has a Peralta-esque splitter. The M’s ended up with Vincent, though, and price may have played a big part there – Quackenbush has been healthier. Of course, Dipoto’s clearly jumped at high-fly ball rate guys coming off down years, and that may have mattered more than the pitch-fx fit – it probably made Vincent cheaper.