Game 28, Mariners at Astros
Wade Miley vs. Chris Devenski, 5:05pm
The M’s are in first place after a bizarre 9-8 win featuring Felix struggles, defensive miscues, and a whole lot of Dae-Ho Lee. The M’s came back against the A’s bullpen, the one I’d talked up before the series began. At least through the season’s first month, the M’s gang of retreads and never-weres > Oakland’s, and that’s saying something, considering how well Axford/Madson had pitched coming in.
The M’s now travel to Houston, the team whose lead in playoff odds has already evaporated, kind of like the Tyler-White-for-AL-ROY talk. There are a few Astros hitters who’ve gotten off to a slow start (Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena), but the biggest reason the Astros are 10-18 (after a two-game winning streak!) has been their pitching staff. By FIP, they’re 3rd worst in the AL, ahead of only their AL West rivals in Anaheim and Arlington. By ERA, they’re the absolute worst club in the league. Their projections were a lot better, and thus their rest-of-season runs-allowed per game is still at a fairly decent 4.34, or a full 0.6 runs *per game* better than what they’ve done so far. They’re essentially the AL version of the SF Giants, a team that was projected to be solid at run prevention, but has instead hemorrhaged runs instead.
The big problem has been their rotation. As we talked about earlier, both Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are off to slow starts, and the back of the rotation hasn’t picked up the slack. The Astros’ starters have walked far more than anyone thought (et tu, Doug Fister?), given up lots of home runs, and then, to top it off, they’ve allowed the highest BABIP of any team in MLB (they’re fractionally ahead/behind, yes, the Giants). That’s a pretty dispiriting, Hieronymous Bosch-like triptych – it covers the fielding dependent as well as the “three true outcomes,” and it’s not limited to one or two guys. All of that’s the back story for why someone named Christopher Devenski is starting this game.
I like to think of myself as following the game quite closely. I’m familiar with most teams (especially an AL West team’s) prospects, and thanks to my love of the PCL, I know something about the depth a lot of teams have waiting in the wings. So it was something of a humbling experience the other day when I saw the probables for today’s game and drew a complete blank. “Devenski.” Who the hell is Devenski? Wojciechowski, sure. Last year, their rotation depth included Vince Velasquez and Brett Oberholtzer (now pitching for 2016’s shockingly-ahead-of-schedule rebuilding club, Philadelphia), Asher Wojciechowski, Dan Straily, and Luis Cruz. Chris Devenski is a sign of just how many pitchers the Astros have lost since last summer. Not only are Velasquez and Oberholtzer in Philly, so is Mark Appel, another guy who logged a bunch of starts for the Astros’ AAA club last year. Sam Deduno left after an injury-plagued 2015. Scott Kazmir went to LA in free agency. Dan Straily saw more opportunity in Cincinnati, and is in the Reds rotation. Lance McCullers is hurt. One of the strengths of the Astros org has been their incredible depth. Well, they really need it now.
Devenski came into the year ranked around the 20-30th best prospect in the Astros system. Drafted by the White Sox, he came over to the Astros org way back in 2012, so he’s moved through the ranks in the Astros’ player development system. That’s probably a good thing, as Devenski was a 23rd round pick who struggled with the long ball and occasional control lapses in the Cal League and in AA. A low BABIP helped him post a nice ERA in AA in 2014, but he repeated the level in 2015 and made some further improvements. Of course, part of the reason his numbers looked better was that he was starting to get some relief appearances as well. Hence the projections of him as a swing-man, which is exactly the way the Astros have used him this year. He started the year in the ‘pen, then made a start 5 days ago. Given the slim pickings for starters, he’ll make another one today.
All of that makes him sound like a generic AAAA (or maybe AAA) retread, but the more I look at what he does, the more intriguing Devenski gets. For one, the reports of his meh fastball don’t match up with what he’s actually throwing now. His four-seamer averages 93-94, and he can touch 95 on occasion. Moreover, it’s got extreme vertical rise; it’s almost Chris Young-ish, albeit 9 mph faster. His best pitch coming up was always his change, and just looking at the movement on it, I can see why. Like his fastball, its armside run isn’t much to write home about, but the thing has devilish drop. By pitch fx, it looks like a (good) split-finger, albeit thrown more slowly (it’s averaging 82). He’s got a big, slow curve that’s been his primary breaking ball and also a rarely-used slider he’s saved for right-handed batters exclusively. He hasn’t thrown either breaker all that much, but again, just looking at movement, there’s a lot to like here. In particular, the gap between the huge vertical rise on his fastball and the drop on his change and, to a lesser extent, curve/slider seem like they could be an effective, confusing combination for batters. An over-the-top pitcher can get lots of vertical rise on their FB, but some of that backspin bleeds into their other stuff, too. James Paxton’s change doesn’t have a ton of drop, and neither does, say, Mike Montgomery’s. Clayton Kershaw and Chris Young both have *change-ups* with over 10″ of vertical rise, and are thus the best examples of this principle. Lance McCuller’s hard change, like Felix Hernandez’s, has similar vertical movement to Devenski’s, but it’s paired with a sinking, low-rise four-seam. Most pitchers have to choose between lower spin, sinking stuff, or high-spin, rising stuff. Devenski doesn’t, and while he may not know how to exploit that yet (and neither do I, to be clear), it’s nice to have.
As you might expect, that rising fastball and the HR problems he had in the minors are linked: Devenski’s never going to be a ground ball guy (though the change might be a GB pitch). He’s improved his control, and may be a decent 5th starter right now. Of course, the issue is going to be: can he miss enough bats to make up for the occasional dinger? So far, he has; his K rate isn’t ideal, but he’s been very lucky on his fly balls. The M’s are on an absolute long ball tear, though, so this’ll be a much tougher test for Devenski.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Marte, SS
9: Martin, CF
SP: Miley
Dae Ho Lee’s big day might get him some more playing time. As many people pointed out, Lee’s two dingers came against *righties* – the guys Adam Lind was supposed to face. Devenski’s lack of platoon splits means the M’s shouldn’t be so doctrinaire about platoons, and Lee doesn’t seem to have any particular problems with righties. It all makes sense, but hey, welcome back to the line up, Adam Lind.
Tacoma beat Salt Lake 3-1 for the second straight day. This time, it was Joe Wieland’s turn to shut down the bees like a little-understood combination of fungus and mite parasitism. Wieland went 5 2/3, giving up just a solo HR. Boog Powell HR’d and doubled, and Chris Taylor doubled as well. Cody Martin starts today’s game against Salt Lake.
Jackson’s Brett Ash dominated Jacksonville’s Jake Esch in the Generals’ 11-6 win. Ash gave up an unearned run in 6 IP, and then the bullpen survived a shaky 8th and 9th to hold on. Tyler O’Neill and Zach Shank both had 3 hits for Jackson, and Steve Baron tripled (!). Dylan Unsworth gets the start tonight.
Bakersfield lost a wild one to Rancho Cucamonga, 12-10. The Blaze had a 6-0 lead after 2 innings, and an 8-6 lead after 6, but the Quakes scored 6 in the 7th to pull ahead. Osmer Morales gave up 5 runs without recording an out to take a particularly ugly loss. Jay Baum had three singles for Bakersfield, and Chantz Mack’s double was their only XBH. Tyler Herb starts tonight’s game. Herb was a 29th round pick out of Coastal Carolina, and the righty struggled along with everyone else last year in Clinton. But he’s breaking out thus far in the Cal league: in 24 IP, he’s given up just 14 hits and 7 walks while striking out 33. He gave up 174 hits in less than 140 IP last year in a much more pitching-friendly environment. The sky-high K rate is new, and also nice to see.
Clinton beat Fort Wayne 5-4 despite Art Warren’s first mediocre start. Warren gave up 4 runs in 4 IP, but the bullpen held the line, striking out 6 in 5 scoreless innings and yielding just 1 hit. Zack Littell starts tonight as the L-Kings open a series with Lake County. The Captains have been excellent thus far, compiling an 18-9 record. An Indians affiliate, Lake County’s bullpen includes Tacoma native Christian Meister, a one-time Green River CC product who the Indians drafted in the 23rd round last year not out of college, but after showcases at Driveline Baseball’s training facility. It’s an odd route to pro ball, but one which might become more common in the future.
Game 27, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Sean Manaea, 12:35pm
Happy Felix Day! This Felix Day really feels like a joyous occasion, and not just a psychic band-aid applied to a decade’s worth of pain and frustration. Enjoy this.
Today’s match-up is one of the better ones of the young season. You’ve got His Royal Highness, nonchalantly stifling batters while writers still pen their obituaries for him because of this or that component-of-a-peripheral. And then you’ve got a really interesting prospect making his second start. As M’s fans, I think there’s a natural curiosity about the big prospects on rival clubs; we could be seeing this guy a lot over the next decade…how should we feel about that? It’s nice to do some oppo research while also basking in Felix’s light.
Manaea came out of nowhere (ok, it was actually Indiana State) in 2012 by putting up one of the most dominating Cape Cod League performances of all time. You sometimes wonder how much the wood bat leagues matter, and then you see a case like Manaea’s and it makes sense. After a good-not-great season in the Missouri Valley conference, Manaea struck out 85 and walked 7 in 51 2/3 IP and became the prohibitive favorite to go first overall in the next MLB draft. Instead, a slight injury and inconsistency marred his junior season; he still had excellent results, but his overall stuff just didn’t look like it did for Hyannis. Worse, there was some talk that he had shoulder discomfort in addition to a hip injury. Some teams still thought of him as a first-round talent, while other teams wouldn’t bite in the 3rd-4th round due to the risk. Even the teams that saw him as a potential value were scared off as much by his agent, Scott Boras, as his injuries. Manaea went from being the most famous Cape Cod pop-up prospect ever to being a case study in how teams value risk in the context of the brand new draft bonus pools.* Kansas City played a risky but ultimately successful play to get Manaea in the supplemental round by “reaching” for Hunter Dozier, a SS, at pick #8. They were able to sign Dozier to an underslot deal and give the proceeds to Manaea.
Unfortunately for the Royals, the inconsistency that marred his junior year for the ISU Sycamores followed him to pro baseball. He still missed tons of bats, but scouts were divided on everything from his future ceiling to his present velocity. Some reported 89-92, and others would say he was sitting 94-95. That’s a pretty big difference, and it seems like he’d alternate starts with great stuff with back-of-the-rotation offerings. He walked 4 in 4 starts in High-A in 2015, then walked 6 in just 7 IP in his first taste of AA. The Royals shipped him to Oakland in the Ben Zobrist deal – a clear case of a “both sides win” trade. The Athletics got the pitching depth they sorely needed (Sonny Gray’s the only drafted-by-Oakland starter to pitch for the A’s since 2013), the Royals got a piece of their Series-winning club. In 2016, Manaea’s stuff seemed to be playing up, and with injuries to Henderson Alvarez and the ineffectiveness of Eric Surkamp, the A’s called him up.
He’s got a low 3/4 delivery, and the lefty’s release point is shifted far towards 1st base. It’s not quite Chris Sale, but there are some similarities there. His fastball averaged 93-94 in his first MLB game, and it’s even closer to Sale in terms of movement than mechanics. His four-seam fastball gets 10-11″ of armside run – that’s Carson Smith’s-sinker, or late-period Randy Johnson level movement. Of course, armside run alone isn’t a predictor of success: I love this BP Pitch Fx leaderboard, because in between Sale and RJ sits ex-Tacoma Rainier standout and big-league…uh, NOT stand-out, Bobby Livingston. What made scouts drool on the Cape in 2012 though was Manaea’s slider. It’s thrown slower than you’d think – it’s more slurvy – and has good downward movement as a result. It may be a good pitch, but it’s just not in the same class as Chris Sale’s or even Carson Smith’s, as both pitches get much more horizontal break due to higher spin. Mark Rzepczynski’s slider’s kind of similar, actually.
Given the arm angle and his repertoire, I’d assume the M’s load up with right-handed bats today. Manaea’s splits haven’t been too prominent in the minors, but he’s probably not a really comfortable AB for many lefties. Given Seager’s success against Rzepczynski last night, though, I bet he’s not too worried about it.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Gutierrez, RF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Lee, 1B
9: Martin, CF
SP: THE KING
Donn Roach turned in his best performance since spring training, pitching the Rainiers to a 3-1 win over Salt Lake. Roach went 6 IP, giving up a run on 6 hits and no walks. David Rollins K’d 2 in an inning in relief, and he’s up to 12 2/3 IP on the year without a walk. Chris Taylor and Mike Zunino were both held hitless; the Bees will presumably pay for this today. The recently-outrighted Joe Wieland starts for Tacoma tonight.
Jackson kicks off their against JacksonVILLE today. The teams have agreed to extend the confusion around their names to the starting pitchers. Jake Esch starts for Jacksonville while Brett Ash starts for Jackson.
Bakersfield’s Andrew Moore worked past some early struggles and turned in a gem, going 7 IP, giving up 2 runs on 5 H and no walks while striking out *9*. Aaaand then the bullpen blew the 6-2 lead. Rancho scored 2 in the 8th off of Kody Kerski, then 3 in the 9th to walk it off against Kyle Schepel. Oh well. Anthony Misiewicz starts tonight.
Fort Wayne beat Clinton 4-2 despite giving the L-Kings 7 walks. The delightfully named Art Warren (I picture a really disorganized art supply store with lots of narrow passageways crammed with paints and charcoal pencils) starts for Clinton tonight. Warren’s been the L-Kings best starter, giving up just 2 earned runs over the course of his 4 starts and 23 1/3 innings. Warren was a 23rd round pick out of Ashland University in Ohio.
The M’s made a roster move yesterday, sending Tony Zych to the DL with rotator cuff tendinitis, which, while nothing’s ever certain, sounds pretty ominous. They called up ex-Ranger/Oriole righty Steve Johnson, who gave up Khris Davis’ HR in last night’s win. Johnson’s got a fairly straight, rising FB at 90mph, but as this piece in the Seattle Times mentions, it’s got some deceptiveness to it.
* This is why the 2013 Draft Preview spent more time talking about Manaea than the guys the M’s might actually draft. Still like going back to these previews; Chris Crawford’s stuff holds up pretty well, and you can’t say that about every “draft expert.” Chris is now the prospect guy at Baseball Prospectus, and has a new draft book out through BP.
Game 26, Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Sonny Gray, 7:05pm
Before we get to today’s game, I’ve got a random observation about the still-young 2016 season. For the past 5 seasons or so, the rate at which batters make contact when they swing has been trending down. Contact % dipped under 80% first in 2012, and it’s lived in the 70s ever since. The explanations for that were many: teams signing players with contact issues if they could do damage on the pitches they DID hit. The ever-expanding strike zone. Finally, a nice, clean link: batters rate of swings at pitches outside the strike zone kept rising. The first year overall contact fell below 80% was the first year o-swing% topped 29%. From there, it just picked up speed: 29.3% in 2012, 30.1% in 2014, and 30.9% last year. This correlation between “bad” swings and whiffs was clearly correlated statistically and logically. It’s early, but 2016 is breaking the link between them.
I’ve talked about o-swing% rates several times already in these posts, and many of them show a dip in 2016. Well, that dip shows up for the league as a whole. We seemed destined to fly past the 31% mark in o-swing%, but instead, the league currently sits at 29.3%, right back where we were in 2012. Contact rate apparently hasn’t received the memo, as its free fall continues: after falling to 78.8% last year, it’s fallen nearly a full percentage point to 77.9%. What’s going on? If “bad” swings aren’t the cause of it, it stands to reason that “good” swings have been remarkably whiff-prone this year. That’s what Fangraphs’ pitch fx data show, as it happens. For the entire pitch fx era, the rate of contact for swings *at strikes* has been remarkably consistent. It bounces up and down in a very, very narrow range between 87% and 88%. In every year since pitch fx debuted in 2007. So, this year, zone-contact% stands at 85.8%, well over a full percentage point drop from 2015. What does this mean? I don’t know. A hunch is that teams and coaches are better at teaching discipline now; that instruction is undergoing something of revolution. I think that’s clearly a factor in the velocity gains pitchers are making, and we may be seeing some signs of a response from hitters.
It’s not a complete response, obviously, not with contact rates on strikes and overall still falling. But between the fact that MLB’s newest crop of youngsters is producing so well so young and a rebound in baseball’s walk rate (which had been dropping for a few years) and ISO, maybe we’re seeing the first fruits of better hitting instruction. It may be a shift in the kinds of players teams are drafting, signing and developing – a move towards Kris Bryant types who strike out but also know the strike zone. It may be an artifact of the velocity arms race, where pitchers don’t *need* to get batters to swing at low-and-away sliders when they can throw it past (some) hitters. Or it could be an April thing. O-swing rates were lower by a bit in April the past few years, but this zone-contact thing is new. We’ll see, I guess.
The M’s take on the A’s confusing ace, Sonny Gray. Gray was brilliant last year by ERA and fielding-dependent metrics, but seemed to be the product of insanely good luck by both FIP and batted ball/statcast-y measures. Tony Blengino and Eno Sarris both noted that Gray’s runs-allowed success has been fueled largely by his consistently low BABIP. This balls-in-play success didn’t seem to be backed up by some skill in inducing weaker contact, the way Dallas Keuchel’s and Jake Arrieta’s is. He gets plenty of ground balls, and many of them are pulled, but they’re not hit all that soft. Despite an infield with some defensive question marks, Gray’s success on ground balls continues: his BABIP-allowed on ground balls over his career is .202, and in 2016 – a year in which his GB% stands at a career high – it’s .208. That’s far better than the A’s as a team, which allow a .249 BABIP on grounders.
The M’s need to elevate the ball, as Gray’s been vulnerable when batters hit the ball in the air. Gray’s been great at inducing grounders, but the non-grounders have been hit remarkably hard. He’s also walking more batters. To tie it back to the opening, Gray’s not inducing as many out-of-zone swings in 2016, a fact which is probably related to the fact he’s throwing more fastballs this year than in the past. But when batters don’t chase, Gray’s command hasn’t been good enough to work his way back in the count. His walk rate in 2016 is 12.2%, up from 7.1% last year, and blowing away his previous high of 8.2% in 2014.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s O-swing% is still sky high, but it too has come down along with (seemingly) everyone else’s. That probably helps explain his uptick in walks and drop in Ks, but I don’t think it fully explains his .330 BABIP. For a guy who’s made a living running low BABIPs (just like Gray!), his bad luck in 2016 really sticks out. His split’s still working pretty well, so I don’t think that’s the issue. Instead, it seems that batters are swinging at his slider *more* and having the kind of success they’ve had from time to time throughout Kuma’s career. It’s a problem Kuma’s well aware of and one he’s been working on for years. That he hasn’t quite fixed it yet is both understandable and a bit concerning, but in general, I’m not too bothered when a pitcher’s 3rd or 4th pitch isn’t doing too well. If batters adjusted to his splitter, that’d be career threatening. If they’ve got a BABIP of .467 on his slider is a mixture of bad command, bad movement, and a whole lot of bad luck.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lind, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Marte, SS
8: Clevenger, C
9: Martin, CF
SP: Hisashi Iwakuma
Adrian Sampson tossed 7 brilliant innings as the Rainiers downed Salt Lake 6-1. Chris Taylor and Ed Lucas homered for Tacoma. Taylor’s season line is up to .333/.412/.556, and he’s reached base in 22 of his 23 games this year. Mike Zunino went 0-4, but his season line is even better: .378/.416/.756. The back end of the Tacoma rotation has been brutal thus far, which is why Tacoma is “only” 13-11 despite Zunino/Taylor/Stefen Romero’s hot starts. Donn Roach looks to change that tonight.
Jackson got rained out yesterday, and they’re traveling today.
Bakersfield’s late comeback fell just short, and they lost to Rancho Cucamonga 4-3. Eddie Campbell didn’t have it, walking 7 and giving up 4 runs in 3 1/3 IP, but the bullpen kept the Blaze in it while the hitters tried to figure out Josh Sborz. The Blaze scored a run in the sixth, seventh and eighth, but couldn’t complete the comeback in the ninth. Andrew Moore starts for Bakersfield tonight.
Clinton got a great start from Nick Wells, the lefty prospect who’d struggled mightily in April, but lost a heartbreaker 3-2. Wells went 6, giving up 1 R on 5 H and 2 BBs, and Darin Gillies followed with 2 scoreless innings in relief. Gillies came back out for the 9th, attempting a 3-IP save, but gave up a 2-run HR to Brad Zunica, and that was the difference in the game. Of note: the Lumberkings scored their two runs off of reliever Enyel De Los Santos, a righty you may remember as a member of the Everett AquaSox and the return for Joaquin Benoit this offseason. Lukas Schiraldi faces Fort Wayne today in an early getaway day game.
Game 25, Mariners at Oakland
Nate Karns vs. Kendall Graveman, 7:05pm
Sorry for missing a few games there; I went camping with the family down by Mt. St Helens.
The M’s make their initial visit to Oakland this year, trying to maintain their string of five consecutive series won. The A’s swept the M’s in three at Safeco in early April, but the M’s have clawed their way above the A’s in the standings, and sit a half-game behind Texas for the divisional lead. Now that we’ve seen a few more games, we have a better sense, I think, of who the A’s are and what they do well. Looking at team stats, it’s something of a miracle that the A’s are .500. The A’s have the worst walk rate in MLB, the worst defense in MLB, and rank 28th in BABIP (just ahead of the M’s, who remain in 30th). One of their best paid players, DH Billy Butler, is now a bench bat. After a second consecutive below-replacement level season last year, Butler’s off to another poor start and remains one of the easiest players in the game to defend. All told, their position players rank last in the American League, ahead of only a few of the strenuously rebuilding NL clubs.
The problem’s particularly acute in the outfield, where the A’s attempted to add power by bringing in Khris Davis to fit in around Billy Burns, Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick and last year’s Rule 5 find, Mark Canha. It’s early, of course, but the results haven’t been encouraging: Davis and Canha are off to abysmal starts, with Canha striking out 17 times without a walk in 35 PAs, and Davis sitting on a .263 OBP in full-time play. Because neither Canha or Davis are particularly good against LHP (despite being righties), the club’s struggled against lefties, as they hurt Reddick’s (and Stephen Vogt’s) production. A year after grabbing a low-power, buy-low first baseman in Ike Davis, the A’s brought in Yonder Alonso, who’s been their worst every day player. Chris Coghlan had an 11% walk rate last year for Chicago, but he’s off to a slow start, and seen his walk rate nearly cut in half. They’re not this bad, of course, and some regression in BABIP might help them, but they looked like a questionable group on paper, and they’ve done nothing to assuage A’s fans worries thus far.
Their rotation has been a mixed bag, with Rich Hill continuing his utterly remarkable comeback from years of being terrible on the one hand and Chris Bassitt and Eric Surkamp turning in replacement-level performance. In the middle sit Sonny Gray, who’s suffered from some uncharacteristic control lapses this year, and today’s starter, Kendall Graveman. It all adds up to one of the more interesting-yet-completely-average rotations in baseball, especially when you add in the recently-promoted prospect Sean Manaea. They haven’t quite gotten there yet, but unlike with the line-up, you can see how this group could become a solidly above-average unit, especially if Jesse Hahn’s weird bout of awfulness really is over.
So, if their position players have been awful and their rotation’s under-performed, how are they 13-13? Because baseball enjoys a good laugh at the hubris of those who attempt to ferret out its secrets, the answer is, of course, their bullpen. There’s a famous quote attributed mostly to Marx (though the form in which it’s typically used probably came from Engels) that says that history repeats itself – first as tragedy, and then as farce. I keep thinking about that when I look at the fact that the ATHLETICS lead the majors in bullpen WPA *by a mile*. In 2015, the A’s bullpen was historically futile, landing in last place by WPA, nearly 5 full wins back of 29th place. The gap between 30th-29th was as large as the gap between 29th-17th place.
What’s funniest is that the A’s have accomplished this by slaying another old sabermetric sacred cow: that the one thing you needed to avoid were relievers who’d acquired the “veteran closer” label. Relievers were all overpaid, according to this line of thinking, but teams like the A’s had figured out how to bring in unheralded relievers, watch them succeed, and then let other teams pay through the nose for them on the free agent market. The smart clubs don’t bid on, I don’t know, Jonathan Papelbon, they convert a 1B into Sean Doolittle. They stash great relievers in set-up roles so the market doesn’t reflect their value. The A’s, however, brought in two ex-closers, Ryan Madson and John Axford, and got their own ex-closer, Sean Doolittle, back from injury. What do you do with three ex-closers? Abolish the closer role, of course. The A’s lead the majors in saves despite not really having a closer: they use match-ups and whoever’s fresh to determine who pitches the 7th and who pitches the 9th. Madson’s received the most work in save situations, but Doolittle’s got 2, and it’s Axford who’s been used in the highest-leverage spots. The A’s created a solid bullpen out of waiver-wire cast-offs and ex-position players only to watch it go supernova last year. This year, they’ve brought in cast-offs with a better pedigree, and built one of the strangest good bullpens I can remember. In the process, they’ve shot another hole in the idea that bullpen success can be reliably predicted. John Axford’s WPA dominates Craig Kimbrel’s. All bullpens may be farcical, but the A’s are a particularly funny one.
Today’s starter, Kendall Graveman, was one of the low-ceiling, high-floor pitching prospects the A’s acquired in the Josh Donaldson disaster trade. Graveman has never racked up strikeouts, but uses a low-spin sinker and cutter to get plenty of ground ball contact. He’s never been a hard thrower, but he looks to have added about 1 MPH to his fastball this year, going from about 90-91 last year to 92 so far in 2016. His sinker is still his most-used pitch, but he’s using it slightly less thus far in favor of his cutter and curve. The cutter is slider-y, with some glove side movement at about 87 MPH. He uses it like a slider, too, keeping it down and away from right-handers. With a sinker/slider profile, you might think Graveman would have some platoon split problems, but in his brief career, he’s handled lefties much better than righties. Indeed it’s righties that continue to trouble him, as they’ve hit 14 of the 20 HRs he’s given up (he’s faced an essentially equal number of RHBs and LHBs). That’s too many HRs for someone who yields so few fly balls, and it’s a problem for someone who doesn’t miss many bats. To be fair, Graveman is “only” a 4th starter, and hasn’t been too bad in that role, but the “low ceiling” part of his scouting report remains pretty evident. He’s alternated some good starts and bad ones this year, with a 3 HR drubbing by the Tigers balanced with an 8 K win over the Yankees in the Bronx.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lind, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Marte, SS
9: Martin, CF
SP: Karns
Will Karns continue to ride his curve ball? This is one of the more anticipated starts of Karns’ career, I’d think – if Karns is able to make the leap not to an ace, but a dependable 2-3 starter, the M’s start to look a bit different, and a bit more formidable.
The Rainiers blasted Las Vegas 12-1 last night behind another great outing from James Paxton. The lefty gave up a HR in the first, then limited the 51s to just four other hits over 6 IP, striking out 7 and walking 1. The Rainiers open a series with Salt Lake tonight; Adrian Sampson’s on the mound. Game time’s 6:05 at Cheney, and the weather is perfect for a game and a beer.
Jackson beat Mobile 6-4 as Tyler O’Neill homered in his second straight game. He’s up to 6 on the year, pushing his season line to .313/.383/.578. The two clubs were rained out in today’s travel day game.
Bakersfield got a solid start from Tyler Pike and a 4 run 5th inning, then held on for 6-5 win. Bakersfield’s line-up isn’t clicking quite yet, managing a sub .700 OPS as a team, but the league as a whole has been uncharacteristically punchless. Bakersfield’s .699 OPS is in the middle of the Cal League pack thus far, which is nice to see after they finished as the worst offensive club in the league last year. Today, Eddie Campbell leads the Blaze to Rancho Cucamonga to take on ex-UVA pitcher Josh Sborz.
Clinton completed the organizational sweep with an 8-4 win over Dayton. Kyle Wilcox had his best outing of the year, going 6 shutout innings allowing just 2 hits and, crucially, 1 walk. Matt Walker pitched the 7th, giving up a run, then ran into more trouble in the 8th, giving up 3 more runs without recording an out. The L-Kings still had a 6-4 lead, then added two more in the 9th. Clinton starts a series tonight against Fort Wayne, with Nick Wells on the mound. Starting for the Tin Caps is Jacob Nix, a Padres prospect, and a pitcher the Astros drafted and agreed to an over-slot bonus with back in 2014. When Brady Aiken didn’t agree on the Astros underslot deal, the Astros lost a huge chunk of their bonus pool, meaning they could no longer honor their agreements with Nix and another pitcher, Mac Marshall. Nix went in the 3rd round to San Diego, and signed a deal for about $600k less than the reported deal he had with Houston.