Cactus League Grinds On: M’s Host Giants
Given that a good chunk of their best players are currently in the WBC or flying back from it, it probably shouldn’t come as a big surprise that the M’s have frittered away some of their impressive strike zone stat advantage. They’re still pretty good, mind you, but they’re no longer among the top teams on either offense or defense. The pitching staff in particular has been unimpressive in recent days, thanks to some ugly lines put up by guys who are not realistically going to play for Seattle this year; the M’s now lead MLB in spring training HRs given up.
Hisashi Iwakuma will try to rebound from an ugly start in that 24-3 drubbing at the hands of the Brewers. I know it’s early, and that his game isn’t based on velocity, but Iwakuma’s averaged 86 MPH on his fastball in his first start of the spring, according to BrooksBaseball (so MLB would have it even slower). That was very early, and he got good outcomes, but after the Milwaukee unpleasantness, it might be worth watching. Iwakuma’s critical to this team, as one potential advantage people have ascribed to the M’s vis a vis the Astros is their rotation’s depth. If Iwakuma stumbles, or pitches more like a #4/5 starter, that advantage starts to look pretty shaky.
I’m not convinced that Collin McHugh is much more than a #3 or 4 at this point, and the Astros might need to ask a lot of their rookies Francis Martes/David Paulino, so I understand the point. But to me, the M’s rotation has as many question marks. A bounce-back season from Iwakuma would answer a big one, and a stretch of good health from James Paxton would answer another. The pieces are there for the M’s to have a better run prevention unit than the Astros, but a lot needs to go right. The M’s depth looks better today than it did a month ago thanks to strong springs from Andrew Moore and Max Povse, but the Astros still have secret weapon Chris Devenski, who had one of the best years for a swingman in recent memory, behind their starting 5.
Today against the Giants, the depleted M’s (day game after a day/night split squad day yesterday) have several back-ups starting and ready to come on later. Steve Baron starts at C, and ex-Indy Leaguer/ex-position-player-pitcher-hybrid Micah Owings’ may make an appearance out of the pen.
1: Martin, CF
2: Motter, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Valencia, DH
5: Vogelbach, 1B
6: Heredia, LF
7: Gamel, RF
8: Smith, SS
9: Baron, C
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21 Responses to “Cactus League Grinds On: M’s Host Giants”
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Well looks like Iwakuma has picked up right where he left off against the Brewers.
I think Gamel and Herdia will both make the opening day roster. Motter and O’Malley may as well. The player in danger of not making the opening day roster is probably Vogelbach. He brings “not much” to the table and has some work left to do. Overall, the 1B position leaves almost more questions than answers.
The player in danger of not making the opening day roster is probably Vogelbach. He brings “not much” to the table and has some work left to do.
That doesn’t make any sense. He’s had two full and effective years of AAA; he’s as ready as he’ll ever be. A bit of ST scuffling doesn’t erase or change that.
Dipoto seems smart enough to stick with the plan and not overreact to SSS ST performance the way the last two M’s GMs were prone to do.
A young player platooning at 1B makes more sense to you? A young player with holes in his swing, limited defensive ability and no speed.
Yes, that’s certainly a good “plan” to stick with.
You said it “doesn’t make any sense.” I’ve given you 3 reasons why it makes “some sense.”
Doesn’t matter what you think, the plan is he will be platooning at 1B and I’ve heard nothing saying otherwise. Don’t read into spring training stats, when it comes to hitting Vogelbach has nothing more to prove at the AAA level.
I hate to disappoint either one of you fellas, but I am not using spring training stats as a barometer for anything. I have not seen nor do I care about the spring training stats. I stated an opinion that I don’t think the guy is ready – and the reasons why. Someone made a leap as to what I was basing my opinion on. Vogelbach doesn’t profile as a multi-dimensional athletic player that Dipoto covets … and he isn’t ready to rake – at least not yet IMO.
Ben Gamel has a strong AAA case to make, too. There is nothing more for him to prove at that level, either. How much will that matter?
I hope they both do well.
a multi-dimensional athletic player
Keith Hernandez or his clone is not anywhere on the M’s 40 man roster or in the minors, last I checked.
Fun fact: 1B tends to be where you stick the least “multi-dimensional athletic” players with “limited defensive ability and no speed”, because the position requires hitters, not defense and speed.
And Vogelbach’s AAA stats are more dispositive of his hitting than SSS of spring training… so yeah. Jerry’s more likely to break with a platoon 1B than an extra OF. Danny Valencia’s lifetime SLG against RHP is under .400. Vogelbach would have to be a pretty bad disaster to be that bad. At this point, you might as well see what you traded for in MLB.
Yep, and I think we can all rest assured that Dipoto won’t keep him on the MLB roster long if he doesn’t produce. No more Smoak experiments.
I would expect some early to mid-season adjustments if Vogelbach isn’t all that.
Valencia really isn’t the best full time option as a 1B. More a bench guy to give the M’s options at 1B/LF/3B.
You made a statement predicting the opening day roster. That’s different than your opinion of Vogelbach’s readiness. He will be on the opening day roster. It’s just that simp
I definitely agree with this
And I definitely agree with this too.
You are right … that is a fun fact. A very fun fact. Who knew?
I was down in spring training earlier this month and Vogelbach is going to be a stretch … for either making the opening day roster or sticking on the opening day roster IMO.
I’m sure Jerry and the Skip won’t be sharing their plan with any of us and we won’t know anything until we are told something … and I’m pretty sure Jerry prefers it that way.
Additionally, I think vogelbachs listed height is slightly overstated and it’s kinda tough to tell on the weight – but he did look a bit better in person (physically) than he does on tv – for whatever that is worth.
I did … what was my final list of 25?
There is not nearly enough content.
We need some content.
The natives are restless and most appear to be in mid-season form.
I was down in spring training earlier this month and Vogelbach is going to be a stretch … for either making the opening day roster or sticking on the opening day roster IMO.
You know who also isn’t hitting? Valencia. If spring training is going to make you send Vogelbach down to AAA for a third full year, to work on his grammar or something, so you’re going to go with the guy who’s also cold in ST, with a lifetime SLG under .400 against RHP, as a full time 1B? What could possibly go wrong with this plan?
So, what, you think they’re going to give Gamel a 1B glove? O”Malley?
Sure, Jerry’s probably itching to make a trade, but if Vogelbach needs another 400 ABs in AAA because he’s STILL not done yet, having one half of a platoon (the RHB half) and a bunch of marginal hit good glove OFers or maybe an IFer who REALLY can’t hit enough for 1B isn’t going to fly as a 1B option.
I would hope we’d not repeat the Adam Kennedy experiment…
PS: Adam Kennedy was a better career hitter against RHP (.732 OPS) than Danny Valencia is (.682).
Which brings me back to the closing point of my original post: The 1B position leaves almost more questions than answers. And again, it has nothing to do with spring training stats.
Well, it looks like you were right about Vogelbach, as the Mariners have optioned Daniel Vogelbach to Tacoma.
Thanks Mrak … I’m sure the other fellas will notice that soon enough, too. .