Game 1, Mariners at Astros
Felix Hernandez vs. Dallas Kuechel, 5:10pm
Happy Felix Day, and a felicitous Felix New Year to all of you.
The M’s have playoff expectations this year, but that’s not actually new: they were *supposed* to win back in 2015, and while they weren’t favored in 2016, they were clearly in the wild card picture both in the projections and, as it turned out, in real life. This year feels different, somehow, and it’s not just because they’re coming off a good year and made a series of trades to improve the roster. The difference this year is that the club reflects the goals and strategy of the GM much more. We’ve talked at length about how the core of this team was put in place by Jack Zduriencik (and even Bill Bavasi – love you, Felix), and so Jerry Dipoto’s job was to do a better job of filling in the complementary pieces either through player development or through trade. In his first year on the job, Dipoto really focused on the trade market to bring in guys we now see as more marginal. This year, from the Walker/Segura trade to the acquisitions of Jarrod Dyson and Drew Smyly, fans have a sense not only of what the M’s are trying to do, but how they want to do it.
The M’s want to lead the world in OF defense and greatly improve their baserunning. They won’t be trying to out-slug the Astros or Red Sox, but, the idea is that they’ll have easily enough offense to win with their current pitching staff. There are a number of key assumptions that drive that simple-sounding summary, and the M’s have actually been pretty open about what they are (another notable difference from their predecessors in the M’s FO): they want their pitchers to yield fly balls and thus drive down their opponent’s expected batting average. They hope Safeco reverts to form and helps hold down opponent HRs. They assume improvements in the top of the order will help the middle of the order drive in more runs. They believe improvements on the basepaths add up to an easy win or two. And, crucially, they believe all of this adds up to a team that can compete with Houston, tonight’s opponent.
The M’s need to see how they stack up against an opponent whose projected batting lines exceed the M’s at 8 of the 9 line-up spots (OK, technically Cruz/Correa are tied in the clean-up spot). They need to see if Felix is prepared to make the adjustments he needs to make to give the team its ace back. Felix has struggled mightily against the Astros in the past two seasons, and that can’t continue if the M’s want to hold off Houston. With the depth the Astros have at their disposal, the M’s will need to be both healthy and creative to either reduce their need for depth or to gin up solutions to roster holes.
All of this makes it sound like a nearly impossible challenge, and that’s going too far. We know the Astros can fritter away an “on paper” advantage: they did it last year! But the M’s are going to be fascinating to watch this year, and could do something much better than just compete for a division title: they could extend their competitive window. If Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura live up to a fraction of M’s fans hopes, the trade that brought them north will be seen as a franchise-changing one. Dyson/Valencia/Cruz even Martin and Cano won’t be around long term, but a core involving Seager/Segura/Haniger with lion-in-winter contributions from Cano and whoever else the M’s assemble is a decent starting point. It’s not enough, not on its own, so that’s where the team’s player development group comes in. As it stands now, the M’s farm system looks somewhat weak, especially after Tyler O’Neill and the rehabbing Kyle Lewis. That won’t cut it, and so as important as it is to see Segura in 2017, it’ll be critical for the M’s to develop another complementary big league piece or two. A comeback from DJ Peterson? A leap forward from one of the low-minors arms? Dan Vogelbach making some key adjustments? None of this is far fetched, and it’ll be fun to see who steps up and pushes their way into contention for a big league job.
But for the 9th time, today is mostly about Felix. His struggles not only doomed the M’s playoff push, but made the entire season less enjoyable than it otherwise would have been. Quite obviously, we can handle not making the playoffs – we’re well-versed in finding value in other elements of the regular season. But there’s something jarring about watching Felix stumble, even as we know he can’t pitch forever. I want to see another big adjustment and a comeback player of the year award for the big righty. I tell myself that I’d rather have Felix play a minor role on a playoff team than a starring role for a loser, and I think even Felix would agree with that, but ace-level-Felix is one of the most compelling things I’ve seen in decades of being a fan, and I’m really glad to have seen it. A part of me wants that back more than anything team-related. I’ll try to keep that part of myself away from the keyboard this year, but he may make a few appearances.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, LF
SP: King. Felix.
I think Houston holds off the M’s this year. I think the M’s compete for a wild card and end up getting the 2nd one. I think run scoring continues to climb, and that Safeco continues to see record numbers of home runs. I think Tampa’s a contender, that Texas looks much better than people think, but that their weird base runs devil magic runs out.
Too many 1 pitch outs being generated in this “new” lineup.
I know it’s only the 3rd, but this is lackluster thus far
Keuchel struggles with his control, so what does Martin do? Swings at the first pitch, and rolls over on it. So aggravating, and so Mariners.
Terrible at bat by Martin… he might be an all around good guy but I have no hope for him on the offensive side of the ball.
And Felix is feeding his gopher; that wasn’t a horrible pitch.
Glad I paid the 25.00 $ Mlb tv fee to watch this, At least make it look competitive.
First, Smyly goes down days before the season and now Felix gets hurt? Please don’t let it be serious. I have high hopes for this team, but too many starting pitching injuries will be hard for this team (or any team I guess) to overcome.
This Umpire is TERRIBLE!!!! omg
I’m glad there’s still 161 games left in the season because today has basically been anything but inspirational.
Felix left due to groin tightness. That’s not good.
2 outs and you try to bunt for a hit against a gold glove pitcher who already threw out Dyson trying to do that…. smart.
Keuchel started a nifty double play, too. He’s made three good plays tonight.
At least the Rangers are losing now.
I am not going to thank Bill Bavasi for Felix, Felix was signed by Bob Engle in 2002 during the Gillick era.
Well, that was a disappointment to say the least.
We can all thank Bill Bavasi for Erik Bedard… what a set back that trade was.
I was lamenting that T-Mobile isn’t giving away MLB.tv until tomorrow (because it has to be on a Tuesday so it counts as a “T-Mobile Tuesday” thing)… but it sounds like it wasn’t the worst opening day to miss. Hopefully this was just a momentary muscle tweak for Felix.
there was positives, Felix hit 93 on his fast ball, Segura had 2 hits, Vincent only gave up 1 run, and that Astros nice offense only scored 3 runs.
Nope, same old Mariners. They suck. Get ready for their 16th season of not making the playoffs. They might as well just quit.
#NeedMoreDingers