Game 6, Mariners at Angels
Felix Hernandez vs. Ricky Nolasco, 7:07pm
Happy Felix day. The M’s are 1-4, and have now struggled against Cy Young winners/candidates but the Jesse Chavez’s of the world. It’s too early for panic, but it’s not too early to be a bit concerned. Tonight’s game is the first time they’ve been favored in those Fangraphs odds, and it’s by the slimmest of margins: 50.1% to 49.9% for Anaheim. I think all of us – even Angels fans – would agree that the real odds are a bit better than that. Felix is healthy, and pitched reasonably well in his debut. Ricky Nolasco is a poor starter, and thanks to his fly-balling ways, just what the M’s offense needs.
But that’s the problem with should-win games: a win tonight isn’t going to dramatically alter our perception of the season’s first week, whereas a loss would feel dreadful. The M’s need a string of wins, especially when playing an Anaheim team that’s *already* lost their ace, Garrett Richards, to injury. A series loss here doesn’t change the M’s season expectations, but it would feel like both a lost opportunity and a really bad omen.
Nolasco throws a four-seam and sinker at 91, a slow curve in the mid 70s, and his primary breaking ball, a slider. He’ll mix in a split/change on occasion, but by and large he’s a sinker/slider pitcher. While he’s got the career platoon splits you’d expect, his problems in recent years have actually come from right-handers. He’d been a strikeout pitcher early in his career, but has settled in as a back-of-the-rotation option for several years, many with Minnesota. When the Angels acquired him (for Hector Santiago), it seemed odd – both were 5th starters who got lots of fly balls, and Nolasco was on a much bigger contract. At his age, he didn’t really seem better than Santiago. Of course, he was probably the Angels best pitcher down the stretch, putting in 9 solid starts with an ERA in the low 3s after posting an ERA well in the 5s in the Twin Cities. Did anything change, beyond the fact his BABIP dropped by 60-70 points?
He altered his pitch mix fairly dramatically, using his sinker much more often and thus *increasing* his GB rate (albeit slightly). That was interesting in itself, because the Angels have, for years, been famous for encouraging fly balls in their spacious, fly-ball-suppressing park. From 2011-2015 (when Jerry Dipoto was the GM), the Angels staff induced more fly balls than any team in baseball. That continued last year, when they posted the lowest GB rate and were essentially tied with Tampa for highest fly ball rate. With guys like Jered Weaver and Santiago on the team, it made sense. The acquisition of Nolasco made sense from the standard Angels-gonna-Angel point of view, but the new front office may not be as fly-ball-fixated as Dipoto (who’s now brought the same approach to Seattle). Nolasco’s HR/FB dropped slightly, as you’d expect when moving to Anaheim, and with fewer fly balls allowed, his HRs (and runs) fell. I can imagine any pitcher who sees Andrelton Simmons behind him might try for a few more grounders, too.
Whatever his approach, the M’s have generally hit Nolasco pretty well. Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Danny Valencia all have multiple HRs against him. If the M’s can’t score tonight…
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, LF
SP: El Cartelua
Tacoma played a few innings, but the rains returned, and they’ll pick up the suspended game on another trip. They’ll try to play a full game in Sacramento tonight with Chris Heston on the mound against Clayton Blackburn.
Arkansas got their first win as an M’s affiliate behind a great pitching performance from Max Povse. Povse tossed 7 scoreless with 5 Ks, 2 hits and just 1 BB. Thyago Vieira closed it out in the 9th, too – he K’d 2 and walked none, which is a good sign after his spring wildness. They’ll play Corpus Christi again today with Tyler Herb on the mound. Dean Deetz, an Astros prospect, gets the start for CC and he’s been tough: 8 Ks and 2 BBs through 5 IP at this point.
Lake Elsinore shattered the Modesto Nuts 8-2, as the Storm tossed Modesto starter Pablo Lopez after 3. LE knocked 12 hits and scored 8 runs off of him, which was all top prospect Cal Quantrill needed. He K’d 7 nuts in 5 innings. Tonight, Anthony Misiewicz takes the hill for Modesto.
Clinton was blanked 3-0 by Kane County. Jon Duplantier allowed only a single in 5 shutout IP (with 8 Ks), and 3 relievers closed it out. L-Kings starter Danny Garcia was solid through 5, but obviously got no support. Offense struggles aren’t limited to the parent club: Clinton has scored in only one single inning they’ve played thus far. They scored all three runs in a single inning in their opening night loss, then got shut out last night, and have been shut out through 5 today. Yeesh. Brandon Miller’s on the mound for them today.
RIP the Bakersfield Blaze. I believe this game is the first time Felix has pitched on his birthday.
Dyson and Haniger are going to save us!
everything about this season so far in MLB has been strange. Arizona, Oakland, Minnesota are all winning.
I really really REALLY dislike the Angels.
Mike… not one of those pitches was a good pitch, please rethink that at bat and don’t let it happen again.
Dammit Zunino, just make contact.
We finally get a clutch hit and then flipping Scribner happens.
I can’t ever remember being so bitter about a season just six games in.
Well, not much else to say other than this really sucks.
If the M’s can’t make a dent in RIcky Nolasco, it’s going to be a very very long season.