Game 8, HOME OPENER: Astros at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Charlie Morton, 2:10pm
Early start today for the M’s home opener. After yesterday’s soul-destroying collapse in Anaheim, the M’s desperately need a win. Home field advantage and the team’s de facto ace on the mound would seem to put them in great position, but no position’s better than a six-run lead in the 9th, and we saw how that went.
This team is better than their record. They won’t continue to get zero or less than zero production out of Nelson Cruz or Kyle Seager. But it’s not enough to BE good – you have to PLAY good, too. Robinson Cano showed some signs of breaking out, and it’s just a matter of time for Cruz, but now that the M’s have whittled their margin of error down, they have to ensure that the supporting cast is ready to provide actual support. Leonys Martin has two singles in 25 trips to the plate, and his K rate continues to rise. Last year’s career high K rate was acceptable thanks to a similar increase in his power production. It’s very early, but Martin’s put up some of the worst at-bats on the club (and that’s a high bar), and that’s turning the bottom of the order into a black hole. It’s a fine line between “reactionary moves” and “swiftly addressing problems,” and the difference seems to depend on whether they work or not, but the M’s can’t afford to have the bottom of the line-up neutralize the top.
The other key area the M’s need to address is the bullpen. Edwin Diaz blew the save yesterday, and while his command’s been terrible, he’s going to figure it out. He’s still the best reliever the M’s have, and I’m reasonably confident he’ll figure it out. Altavilla’s been great as well. But after that, things get a little dicey. I mentioned it on twitter, but Evan Scribner looks like a completely different pitcher than the guy we saw last year or in his last year with the A’s. Scribner averaged 92 MPH on his fastball in 2015, and just shy of 91 in his abbreviated 2016. He looked normal in the spring, touching 92 and sitting at 91 in Peoria, but since the regular season began, he’s down 2 ticks to 89 MPH. Worse, the movement on his fastball’s gone. Scribner’s posted high K rates despite an average-to-below fastball speed in part thanks to well-above-average vertical “rise.” It was about 1.3 standard deviations better than average in 2015, and nearly 1.7 better in 2016, approaching 12″ of vertical movement. This year, his four seamer is *below* league average in vertical rise. Watching his ill-fated appearance in Anaheim, I wonder if he was missing his spots and leaving balls in the zone because he was anticipating movement that didn’t come. By statcast, his total spin rate is down by 150 RPM or so. His curve still seems OK – it’s actually a dead ringer for Houston starter Charlie Morton’s in terms of spin rate and movement (though Morton’s is 8 MPH faster). But if he can’t get to it thanks to a hittable fastball, that’s a problem. With 10 batters faced, it’s tempting to chalk it up to BABIP bad luck, but when his fastball looks *this* different, it’s a big red flag.
Nick Vincent’s velocity’s down as well, though the difference isn’t as stark. Thanks to command and some deception, Vincent’s produced strikeouts and a surprisingly low contact rate despite below-average velocity. His cutter (86-87 MPH) is his primary pitch, and it can make his mediocre fastball play up when he mixes it in. The problem is that the movement on his cutter’s down thus far, and thus nothing’s fooling anyone. His contact rate was 2 percentage points lower than the league average last year. It’s absurdly early, but it’s about 13 percentage points *higher* this year. These are not dispositive numbers; we have proved nothing, and as the saying goes, a good scout beats stats in tiny samples. But using a scouting eye makes it worse: Vincent’s looked hittable, and Scribner looked abysmal vs. the Angels. The M’s need to double check if anything’s wrong, and think carefully about their contingency plans. Altavilla seems to have already supplanted Scribner as the set-up guy who comes in for high-leverage situations, but the M’s need to figure out if James Pazos can do more.
This is all fairly bleak stuff for a home opener, so let’s just note that James Paxton looked every bit as good as we hoped in his first start. The velocity was there, he avoided hard contact (something that plagued him last year), and his curveball continues to improve. Paxton was everything M’s fans could’ve hoped for, and his match-up with fellow out-of-nowhere-velocity-gainer Charlie Morton was the best of the year so far. Morton’s got a ridiculously high-spin curve and now sits in the mid-90s, and seems to be worth more than the back-of-the-rotation contract he signed with Houston. I’d love the M’s to face someone worse in this spot, but to get their confidence back, the M’s need to go out and push around the Astros. Beating up on a 95 MPH fastball is just what Nelson Cruz needs right now, and while M’s fans are hoping the Astros don’t hit another dozen cheap HRs the way they did in Houston, I still think Safeco will be pretty HR-friendly this year. So hit it in the air against the ground-balling Morton and see what happens. Last year, the M’s started 2-6 thanks to an awful first homestand that saw them swept by the cellar-dwelling A’s. The club dusted themselves off, and quickly got back into contention. The M’s have already had their April swoon, so let’s hope this is the start of a big push. The Astros are coming off a series loss to Kansas City, so they look a bit less like the West’s juggernaut team than they did a few days ago. Go M’s.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, LF
SP: Paxton
Duty requires me to point out that no team in baseball’s done more damage to their playoff odds than the M’s. Is it silly to look at this in early April? Maybe. Are the odds still nearly entirely dependent on preseason projections? Nearly, yes. But in Baseball Prospectus’ odds, the M’s odds of getting to the playoffs have dropped by about 15%. That’s by far the largest drop, and it dwarfs the largest increase in odds – the Diamondbacks, at just under 12%. Fangraphs shows much less movement in part because they weren’t as high on the M’s to begin with. BP had their initial odds much higher, hence there was more room to drop.
Tacoma lost to Sacramento 5-1 as Tyler Beede outdueled Dylan Unsworth. Unsworth gave up 2 runs in 5 2/3 IP, with 2 Ks and, as you’d expect, no walks. The game was 2-1 very late, but rehabbing Tony Zych gave up 3 runs in the 8th on a Kyle Blanks 3R HR. Zych’s return to Seattle – which could come quite soon – likely means a reliever gets optioned or DFAd. Chase de Jong starts to Tacoma today in Game 1 of a twin bill, opposite ex-Toronto Blue Jays ace Ricky Romero, who’s trying to make it back in the Giants’ org. Game 2 will feature Ryan Weber for the Rainiers against Joan Gregorio, who’s racked up plenty of strikeouts in AA and AAA, but whose fly-balling approach has led to HRs and runs-allowed in the HR-crazed PCL.
Arkansas beat San Antonio 8-2 thanks to two great pitching performances from Kyle Hunter and Brett Ash. Hunter gave up a 2R shot in the first, but kept the Mission off the board after that in his 4 IP of work. Then pitch-to-contact righty Ash took over and blanked the Missions over the final 5 for the win. Jay Baum and Tyler Marlette both had 2 hits including a double, and the pair are a combined 15 for 31 on the year. Ex-Dodger farmhand Lindsey Caughel makes his M’s-system debut today. The righty pitched well in the Dodgers system before a labrum injury (fraying, not a tear) nuked half of his 2015 season. He returned in 2016 and pitched in spring training with the Dodgers, only to be released. He signed on with an Indy league team, pitched well, and was signed by the Mariners this winter. This post makes it seem like the M’s see him as more than MiLB roster depth, which is what you’d expect for an Indy league vet with shoulder problems on his resume. Good luck to Mr. Caughel, and I hope he dominates AA.
Modesto beat Lake Elsinore 6-2, with Reggie McClain looking sharp in his Cal League debut. The righty out of Missouri tossed 6 2/3 IP, giving up 1 run on 5 hits and 2 walks (he gave up only 5 all year last year) with 6 Ks. Art Warren got the save, going the final 2 1/3 without giving up a run (or getting a strikeout, actually). He worked out of the rotation last year, so not sure if this was a piggy-back start thing (like the Arkansas game) or if they’re moving Warren to the ‘pen. Today, Nathan Bannister makes his M’s system debut. Bannister pitched at the University of Arizona, putting up gaudy numbers in his senior year but falling to the 28th round thanks to a lack of velocity that only got to the high-80s late in his college career. Then, he was injured in a College World Series game, and wasn’t able to pitch at all last year; the M’s put him on the 60-day DL after the draft. It says something about how the M’s see him that he’ll skip rookie league/short season and the Midwest League entirely and join the High-A Nuts for his pro debut.
Clinton…alas, poor Clinton. They lost again 4-2, as Kane County completed a four-game sweep. Tim Viehoff yielded just a single hit in 5 shutout innings, but the Cougars tied the game at 2 off of RP Ronald Dominguez. It went into the 11th, when the Cougars scored a pair off of Michael Koval. SS Rayder Ascanio was 4-4 with a BB in a losing effort. Nick Wells leads the L-Kings to face Beloit and their alliteratively-named starter Boomer Biegalski, who sounds like a bully in a 1950s kids book.
Game 7, Mariners at Angels + Other Things to Worry About
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Matt Shoemaker, 12:37pm
Our first day game of the year features an M’s team in near panic mode, having dropped the first two games against the soft underbelly of the Angels rotation. Today, they’ll get the best (healthy) pitcher the Angels have, in Matt Shoemaker. The M’s have fared well against the righty, but most of the damage against him has come in Safeco. Like many Angels pitchers, Shoemaker’s a different animal at home, with a better K:BB ratio and much lower HR rates; as HR rates are his biggest flaw, that’s a pretty important difference. And if you remember, Jeff Sullivan and others have pointed out that the Angels have been especially tough in *day* games in Anaheim. This isn’t a great match-up on paper, but then again, the M’s have struggled in what seem like tailor-made match-ups, so hey, let’s try something different.
I’ve mentioned it before, but Shoemaker really seems like an American version of Iwakuma. Neither has an overpowering fastball (though at this point, Shoemaker’s got 5-6 MPH on Iwakuma), and both feature an excellent split-finger/change. Both have excellent control, and both are susceptible to home runs. The splitter is such a great pitch because it essentially neutralizes platoon splits; it’s an equal-opportunity weapon. Shoemaker’s career splits are slightly reversed, with a FIP about a tenth of a point better against lefties. Iwakuma’s splits are reversed, and the gap’s slightly wider.
It wouldn’t be right to talk about this game and not mention what happened the last time we saw Shoemaker. A 105-MPH line drive off the bat of Kyle Seager slammed into Shoemaker’s head, ending his season and fracturing his skull. After emergency surgery in Seattle, he’s had to go through rehab and get comfortable on the mound again…all while learning to be a parent (his wife was 7 months pregnant at the time of the injury). This OC Register report mentions that he’s become good friends with Seager as a result of the injury, which is nice, but I can’t imagine how tenuous everything must have felt for Shoemaker. As a non-prospect, Shoemaker didn’t have a signing bonus that helped him pay the bills during his years of minor league bus rides, and despite nearly 3 solid years in a big league rotation, his largest salary had been $530,000. Living in Michigan, that’d be life-changing money, but if he wasn’t able to come back and get to his comparatively-generously-paid Arb years, he’d have spent nearly a decade of his life fighting to get where he was only to have it snatched away just as it was getting lucrative. He turned 30 years old during his post-surgery rehab. I don’t much care for the Angels, and I hope the M’s hit several HRs off of Shoemaker today, but I’m really glad to see him out there, and wish him the best this season. Except against the M’s. (I also can’t imagine what’ll be going through Seager’s mind today).
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Ruiz, C
9: Motter, LF
SP: Iwakuma
Tacoma dropped their first official game of the year 6-5 to Sacramento after a 3-run rally by the Rivercats erased a 5-3 Tacoma advantage. Tyler O’Neill hit his first AAA HR, a long 3R blast to left-center that gave Tacoma the lead. But in that fateful 8th inning rally by the RiverCats, O’Neill made two fielding errors that proved critical to Sacto’s comeback. Dylan Unsworth makes his first AAA appearance today against the Giants’ top prospect, Tyler Beede.
Arkanasas was stymied by Houston prospect Dean Deetz, and Corpus Christi smoked Traveler’s starter Tyler Herb for 4 runs in 4 2/3 IP. Kyle Hunter starts today for Arkansas against ex-affiliate San Antonio and lower-tier Padres prospect (they’ve got a LOT of pitching prospects, so it’s no slam on the guy) Brett Kennedy.
Modesto got walked off by Lake Elsinore last night, giving up 4 runs in the 9th for a 10-9 loss. Joey Curletta and Logan Taylor homered for the Nuts, but control problems and timely hits by the Storm meant it wasn’t enough. Control artist Reggie McClain starts today in his first High-A appearance.
Clinton was shut out again by Kane County, pushing their scoreless innings streak to 22. They’ve still scored in only one inning on the year. They’ll play the wrap-up game of the series today with Tim Viehoff on the hill for the Lumberkings. The lefty struck out 55 in 39 IP for Everett last season.
Game 6, Mariners at Angels
Felix Hernandez vs. Ricky Nolasco, 7:07pm
Happy Felix day. The M’s are 1-4, and have now struggled against Cy Young winners/candidates but the Jesse Chavez’s of the world. It’s too early for panic, but it’s not too early to be a bit concerned. Tonight’s game is the first time they’ve been favored in those Fangraphs odds, and it’s by the slimmest of margins: 50.1% to 49.9% for Anaheim. I think all of us – even Angels fans – would agree that the real odds are a bit better than that. Felix is healthy, and pitched reasonably well in his debut. Ricky Nolasco is a poor starter, and thanks to his fly-balling ways, just what the M’s offense needs.
But that’s the problem with should-win games: a win tonight isn’t going to dramatically alter our perception of the season’s first week, whereas a loss would feel dreadful. The M’s need a string of wins, especially when playing an Anaheim team that’s *already* lost their ace, Garrett Richards, to injury. A series loss here doesn’t change the M’s season expectations, but it would feel like both a lost opportunity and a really bad omen.
Nolasco throws a four-seam and sinker at 91, a slow curve in the mid 70s, and his primary breaking ball, a slider. He’ll mix in a split/change on occasion, but by and large he’s a sinker/slider pitcher. While he’s got the career platoon splits you’d expect, his problems in recent years have actually come from right-handers. He’d been a strikeout pitcher early in his career, but has settled in as a back-of-the-rotation option for several years, many with Minnesota. When the Angels acquired him (for Hector Santiago), it seemed odd – both were 5th starters who got lots of fly balls, and Nolasco was on a much bigger contract. At his age, he didn’t really seem better than Santiago. Of course, he was probably the Angels best pitcher down the stretch, putting in 9 solid starts with an ERA in the low 3s after posting an ERA well in the 5s in the Twin Cities. Did anything change, beyond the fact his BABIP dropped by 60-70 points?
He altered his pitch mix fairly dramatically, using his sinker much more often and thus *increasing* his GB rate (albeit slightly). That was interesting in itself, because the Angels have, for years, been famous for encouraging fly balls in their spacious, fly-ball-suppressing park. From 2011-2015 (when Jerry Dipoto was the GM), the Angels staff induced more fly balls than any team in baseball. That continued last year, when they posted the lowest GB rate and were essentially tied with Tampa for highest fly ball rate. With guys like Jered Weaver and Santiago on the team, it made sense. The acquisition of Nolasco made sense from the standard Angels-gonna-Angel point of view, but the new front office may not be as fly-ball-fixated as Dipoto (who’s now brought the same approach to Seattle). Nolasco’s HR/FB dropped slightly, as you’d expect when moving to Anaheim, and with fewer fly balls allowed, his HRs (and runs) fell. I can imagine any pitcher who sees Andrelton Simmons behind him might try for a few more grounders, too.
Whatever his approach, the M’s have generally hit Nolasco pretty well. Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Danny Valencia all have multiple HRs against him. If the M’s can’t score tonight…
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, LF
SP: El Cartelua
Tacoma played a few innings, but the rains returned, and they’ll pick up the suspended game on another trip. They’ll try to play a full game in Sacramento tonight with Chris Heston on the mound against Clayton Blackburn.
Arkansas got their first win as an M’s affiliate behind a great pitching performance from Max Povse. Povse tossed 7 scoreless with 5 Ks, 2 hits and just 1 BB. Thyago Vieira closed it out in the 9th, too – he K’d 2 and walked none, which is a good sign after his spring wildness. They’ll play Corpus Christi again today with Tyler Herb on the mound. Dean Deetz, an Astros prospect, gets the start for CC and he’s been tough: 8 Ks and 2 BBs through 5 IP at this point.
Lake Elsinore shattered the Modesto Nuts 8-2, as the Storm tossed Modesto starter Pablo Lopez after 3. LE knocked 12 hits and scored 8 runs off of him, which was all top prospect Cal Quantrill needed. He K’d 7 nuts in 5 innings. Tonight, Anthony Misiewicz takes the hill for Modesto.
Clinton was blanked 3-0 by Kane County. Jon Duplantier allowed only a single in 5 shutout IP (with 8 Ks), and 3 relievers closed it out. L-Kings starter Danny Garcia was solid through 5, but obviously got no support. Offense struggles aren’t limited to the parent club: Clinton has scored in only one single inning they’ve played thus far. They scored all three runs in a single inning in their opening night loss, then got shut out last night, and have been shut out through 5 today. Yeesh. Brandon Miller’s on the mound for them today.
Game 5, Mariners at Angels
Yovani Gallardo vs. Jesse Chavez, 7:07pm
I’m guessing that both the M’s and Angels come into this three game set in a foul mood. The M’s finally won a game, but it took a 9th inning rally against a great closer to do it; their line-up did not inspire a lot of confidence against the Astros surprisingly stout pitching. The Angels come in at 2-2, but can’t be happy with that. They performed the almost cliched trick of victimizing the Athletics’ bullpen back in the 2nd game, then lost Garrett Richards to injury in the 3rd – a scene that’s nearly as familiar as an Oakland reliever meltdown. Then, they were held in check by Andrew Triggs and the A’s yesterday. Both teams are staring up at an Astros club that’s at least as good as advertised.
Richards gets an MRI today, so we’ll see if the Angels week gets any worse. As it is, they’re going with reliever-turned-starter-then-back-to-relieving-and-whoopsadoodle-let’s-try-starting-again right-hander Jesse Chavez. The M’s saw him a lot when he was with the A’s, but it’s possible he’ll be using a different approach now. The A’s in the early part of this decade had some success teaching pitchers a cutter or, even better, a cutter and sinker, and giving them a very different arsenal. Brandon McCarthy was perhaps the most famous of these reclamation projects, but Chavez was another. He’d been a surprisingly ineffective reliever for several teams, but became a reliable #3-4 starter 7 years into his big league career in 2014. He maintained that effectiveness in 2015, putting in two full seasons with sub-4 FIPs and nearly 4 total WAR. Then, the A’s flipped him for reliever Liam Hendriks, and the Jays moved him back to the bullpen, where a bout of HR trouble nuked his effectiveness. This year, the Angels moved him back to the rotation, and as a guy capable of getting lots of fly ball contact, you can see why: he’ll play more than half of his games in parks that suppress fly ball contact.
In Oakland, the cutter seemed to be the solution to his persistent platoon splits. We’ve mentioned the spectrum of cutters, with some with slower speeds and lots of break being rebranded sliders, and others, like Kenley Jansen’s or Jesse Chavez’s acting like straight fastballs. Chavez pitched off of his cutter in Oakland – it was his primary fastball, and had nearly the same speed and almost the same movement as his four-seam. It had a bit less vertical rise, but like the four-seam, it’s been easy for batters to elevate. He even uses it the same way as his primary fastball: he keeps it away to RHBs and LHBs alike, and stays around the zone instead of elevating it or burying it low. It’s been a reliable pitch for Chavez, which is why it’s noteworthy that he spent this spring using it much LESS than he has before. Who knows what to make of two spring training starts, but he looked a lot more conventional, pitching off of a four-seam and sinker and mixing in the cutter instead of using the cutter as his primary pitch. Maybe he was working on things. Maybe he thought it was time to try something new, particularly after getting hit hard as a reliever in 2016. In his tiny-sample 2017, he all but abandoned the cutter to lefties, using much more of his change-up. That pitch has always been his weakest behind his fastballs and curve, so it’ll be interesting tonight to see if he’s got more confidence in it, or if his different approach this spring was just tinkering. I can imagine that Chavez using more four-seamers, particularly up in the zone, might change his batted-ball profile a bit (though the cutter was never a ground ball pitch), and it may give hitters who’ve seen him before (like most of the M’s) a new wrinkle.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: Gallardo
Please don’t be terrible, Yovani. Guillermo Heredia makes his first start, and Jarrod Dyson moves over to CF to give the struggling Leonys Martin a break.
The R’s were rained out. Check out the PCL preview below! Tony Zych will get an inning to start the game tonight, and then it’ll be the opening day starters: Sam Gaviglio for Tacoma and Chris Stratton for Sacramento.
The Arkansas Travelers got a brilliant pitching performance from Andrew Moore, but couldn’t hold onto the lead as Corpus Christi edged them 2-1. Moore went 6 scoreless giving up just 1 hit and striking out 7. Blake Perry struggled in the 8th and Zac Curtis allowed two inherited runs to score, and that was that. Ian Miller had two hits including a triple. Tonight, it’s Max Povse on the mound against Kent Emmanuel, which sounds like the name of a parochial school.
Modesto was so excited to become an M’s affiliate that they didn’t want their first game in the system to end. They played 14 innings, ultimately winning a 3-2 decision over Lake Elsinore. The top of the line-up scuffled, with Braden Bishop and Eric Filia going a combined 0-11 with 5 Ks, but the bottom of the line-up bailed them out. Ricky Eusebio (batting 9th) and Gianfranco Wawoe (7th) both homered. Nick Neidert went 4 2/3, giving up 2 runs. The pitching performance of the night might have been 2B Jordan Cowan’s. Cowan, who hails from Covington, pitched two perfect innings in the 13-14th for the win. Pablo Lopez makes his first start tonight.
Clinton got roughed up by Kane County, 13-3. A 7-run first set the tone, as the Cougars battered Ljay Newsome. Newsome hung in and ended up pitching 4 innings with 5 Ks and 0 walks, but the LumberKings bats were quiet. Luis Liberato hit a three-run HR to get Clinton on the board, but then Kane County pulled away late off of Matt Clancy and Michael Koval. Danny Garcia, a lefty the M’s got in the 15th round last year out of Miami, starts tonight against mid-tier Diamondbacks prospect Jon Duplantier, a 3rd round pick out of Rice.
Rainiers Opening Night (For Real, This Time) and PCL Preview
I’ve run through the affiliated full-season teams, but as always, it’s worth spending some time on my beloved Tacoma Rainiers. This is the club that M’s fans in the northwest can easily check out, and for the first time in a while, it’s got the most interesting roster, especially for position players.
The club’s starting out on the road, and I’m kind of thankful they were rained out yesterday so that this post is accidentally timely and not just an afterthought. The point herein is to go over the R’s roster in a bit more depth, and then to talk about the opponents who’ll come into Tacoma and what big prospects they may be featuring. It’s all a bit speculative, a fact that was brought home to me when reading last year’s version. Not only are we focused on the big prospects coming out of 2016, but we’re trying to figure out when they’re going to be in AAA. For the top players, they better be blocked at the big league level, or they won’t stick around past May. AA players start moving up around then, and injuries/trades/etc. mean AAA rosters are constantly shifting. Still, we can do what we can to identify any potential must-see games.
The Rainiers rotation, as I mentioned yesterday, contains four players who’ve moved to the M’s system fairly recently in Sam Gaviglio (late 2014), Chris Heston, Christian Bergman (late 2016) and Chase de Jong (2017), all along side M’s prospect and the pride of Durban, South Africa, Dylan Unsworth. The group as a whole lacks elite or even average velocity, but have solid command and mix their pitches well. Of the group, de Jong may have the liveliest fastball, and it may not average 91 MPH (he touched 91 in his ill-fated MLB debut the other night) – Bergman and Heston are right around 90, while Gaviglio and Unsworth come in lower than that. Of note: Unsworth’s velo seemed to be a bit on the low side this spring, but it clearly didn’t affect his results. Tonight’s starter is rehabbing reliever Tony Zych, who figures to get an inning or two before giving way to Gaviglio.
The bullpen features MLB vets Nick Hagadone, Jean Machi, Mark Lowe and Ryan Weber, but M’s prospects Paul Fry and Emilio Pagan are the guys to watch. Fry’s a lefty the M’s drafted out of a Michigan JC, and while he wasn’t quite able to match his jaw-dropping 2015 stats last year, his 2nd half showed why he’s moved up the M’s affiliates so quickly. Pagan pitched for tiny Belmont Abbey in college, and has also flown through the system thanks to a 95 MPH fastball and a good slider. He pitched for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic (Gaviglio pitched for Italy, too) and seems like he could slot into the back of a big league bullpen soon. Fry lacks the top-end velo of Pagan, but with his arm angle and slider seems like he could get big league lefties out right now. Both Pagan/Fry could use some work on their change-ups.
Catching this group will be long-time M’s farmhand Steve Baron, who was drafted way back in 2009, when Jack Zduriencik was still seen as a heroic figure. Baron’s off the 40-man now, but still has a great reputation as a defensive catcher. His bat’s come around a bit in recent years, as he’s put up better than .700 OPS marks in both the PCL (2015) and SL (2016). That’s not a terribly high bar or anything, but Baron’s early years were ugly. PCL veteran Tuffy Gosewisch joins Baron this year. The 33-year old has played at the AAA level for the D-Backs, Blue Jays, and Phillies organizations, and he’s seen a fair bit of MLB action in Arizona. He’d been seen as a defensive catcher early in his career, and had the putrid batting lines to match, but like so many players, turned into an offensive force after moving to Reno. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares in a more neutral environment in Tacoma.
The infield features SS Tyler Smith, 3B Zach Shank, ex-White Sox starter Gordon Beckham, 2016 holdover and occasional Mariner utility guy Mike Freeman and the 1B/DH pair of Dan Vogelbach and DJ Peterson. As mentioned yesterday, this is a pivotal year for both. Peterson’s missed time with injuries and looked dominant at times and then mediocre for months. Vogelbach’s been more consistent, but defensive issues and a horrific spring slump have him back in the PCL trying to make the leap to big league regular. For years, the M’s had players who struggled with this exact move: Mike Carp, Mike Wilson, Jeff Clement, Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, etc. That’s why it was so heartening to see Mike Zunino’s progress last year; the club was going to leave him in AAA for the entire year, but his production forced their hand, and while he wasn’t great for Seattle, he was far more productive than he’d ever been. If one or both of Peterson/Vogelbach can make that kind of improvement, it really changes how we’d see the M’s offensive depth.
The OF’s headlined by top prospect Tyler O’Neill, with Ben Gamel taking second billing. Gamel seemed like an intriguing pick-up from the Yankees org last year, but he’s looking to prove he’s more than a tweener/4th OF. He’s never hit for a ton of power, and doesn’t have the best batting eye either – he can make it as a pure average hitter with enough doubles power to play in an OF corner, or he’ll have to improve one of those two deficiencies. I’m sure that’s what he’ll be working on for Tacoma. Also on the team are Dario Pizzano, another long-tenured M’s farmhand out of the baseball mecca that is Columbia University, and PCL vet and former 1st round draft pick James Ramsey, who’s played in AAA in the Cards, Indians, and Dodgers orgs.
The Rainiers home opener is next Tuesday, the 11th of April against rival El Paso. Last year’s feuds with El Paso began when SS Chris Taylor plunked the Chihuahuas mascot with a ball and ended with El Paso eliminating Tacoma in the PCL playoffs. The Chihuahuas graduated their two top prospects from last year’s team (Hunter Renfroe/Manny Margot), but feature a solid pitching prospect in Tyrell Jenkins who saw plenty of action with the essentially-AAA Atlanta Braves last year, and Dinelson Lamet, the Pads #8 prospect, a righty who played at three levels in the system last year and features a fastball that can touch the mid-upper 90s. 2B Carlos Asuaje is their best position-player prospect. They certainly won’t be in Tacoma in April, but the Chihuahuas come back to town in August, when we could see Cal Quantrill and, dare to dream, top prospect Anderson Espinoza. Both will begin in High A Lake Elsinore, but Quantrill’s a polished college pitcher and could move quickly. Espinoza’s one of the most talented pitchers in all of baseball, but is just 19 years old.
The Albuquerque Isotopes, a Rockies affiliate, come in immediately after El Paso. They again feature pitching prospect Jeff Hoffman (#2 in COL system) and stout lefty Harrison Musgrave. OF Raimel Tapia has been a toolsy prospect for a while (and he’s still just 23), and is coming off a dominant year that earned him a cup of coffee with the Rockies. When they come back in July, they could have pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Yency Almonte.
Giants’ affiliate Sacramento rounds out the Rainiers’ April home schedule. The Giants’ #1 prospect, RHP Tyler Beede, headlines the RiverCats roster, and he’s joined by former KBO star Jae-Gyun Hwang, a 3B, who nearly made the Giants roster. #2 Giants prospect, SS Christian Arroyo, will also start for the RiverCats. Sacramento has an inordinate number of mid-tier Giants prospects, from Albert Suarez, Austin Slate, and Steven Okert, but the Giants’ system isn’t terribly strong.
The newly-rechristened New Orleans Babycakes will come to Tacoma in early May. The Marlins farm club features a couple of mid-tier prospects in big RH pitcher Drew Steckenrider and IF JT Riddle, but the club’s filled with long-time minor league vets like Stephen Fife, Clayton Mortensen, Moises Sierra and Steve Lombardozzi.
Rangers’ affiliate the Round Rock Express make their first visit in May as well. Top prospect Yohander Mendez, a pitcher, flew up the system last year and played with both Round Rock and the Rangers, but he’s been assigned to AA to begin the year. A couple of great starts could get him to Round Rock in time for this trip, but other than that, this club is full of guys with big league experience. One of the more surprising assignments is Keone Kela, who was great out of the pen (when healthy) for the Rangers last year. The Seattle native’s been assigned to Round Rock for personal reasons after bad behavior this spring. This report has several (unnamed) teammates grousing about Kela, and calling him a clubhouse cancer. Yeesh. The team features several ex-prospects like Travis Snyder (another northwest native), Allen Webster and Tanner Scheppers (who’s on a rehab assignment). 1B Ronald Guzman, signed at the same time as Rangers OF Nomar Mazara, is the biggest true prospect to start the year with the Express.
The Fresno Grizzlies, the Astros AAA club, round out the May schedule, hitting Tacoma for a four-game set from the 23rd to the 26th. Houston’s been an absolutely loaded system, and the 2017 Grizzlies reflect that. #1 prospect Francis Martes, a RHP, will start with Fresno, as will 1B AJ Reed, who’s looking to put 2016 behind him. The OF features Andrew Aplin, Preston Tucker and Teoscar Hernandez. Closing for the club is the rare 30-year-old prospect, James Hoyt, who’s been shockingly good after moving to the Astros system. He K’d 93 in 55 IP for the Grizz last year, against just 19 walks. That got him a cup of coffee in Houston where his rising fastball got plenty of whiffs, but a few too many HRs as well.
The Reno Aces come to town June 5th, and the D-Backs affiliate feature the Snakes top pitching prospect in lefty Anthony Banda. They’ve got another couple of prospects on the staff in righties Jimmy Sherfy, Braden Shipley, and ZAck Godley – the latter two spent most of 2016 with Arizona. The best position player prospects are both ex-Mariner prospects: shortstops Ketel Marte (acquired in the Walker-for-Segura swap) and Jack Reinheimer (acquired in the Mark Trumbo for Wellington Castillo deal). Former Twins/Rays power hitting OF Oswaldo Arcia will start for Reno and probably put up some eye-popping stats in Reno’s home park.
Las Vegas follows Reno in that early-June homestand. The Mets team was a prospect hound’s dream a few years back with Noah Syndergaard and Jacob de Grom, but was filled with AAA vets last year. This is more like it: the Mets top 3 overall prospects will start for Vegas: SS Amed Rosario, SS Gavin Cecchini and 1B Dom Smith. The pitching staff’s a bit thinner, however.
Salt Lake makes their first visit beginning on Sat. the 17th of June. As an Angels affiliate, it’s a prospect desert, but 6’9″ pitcher Alex Meyer’s worth a look. He came over from the Twins system in the Hector Santiago deal last year. Kaleb Cowart starts at 3B for what seems like the 5th straight year, but the most familiar name to M’s fans is 2B Dustin Ackley. LHP Manny Banuelos, a former Braves farmhand, is interesting, and the club could eventually feature some of the Angels top prospects like 1B Matt Thaiss.
Vegas and Albuquerque make return trips to close out June/open July, and then Fresno and Sacramento return later in the month. Tacoma’s home most of August, and welcome the Memphis Redbirds beginning on Thursday the 3rd. The Cards club features top position player prospect OF Harrison Bader, along with catcher Carson Kelley and ex-Gonzaga starter and first-rounder Marco Gonzalez, who’s nursing an injury at the moment. By this point, they could be joined by the two AA players I mentioned yesterday: pitchers Jack Flaherty and Sandy Alcantara. CF Tommy Pham makes an appearance with the Redbirds for the fifth consecutive season.
A’s affiliate Nashville follows Memphis, and they’ve got several of the A’s best prospects, including #1 prospect Franklin Barreto. The SS was the primary “get” in the deal that sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto. The Sounds also have 3B Matt Chapman (#4 prospect) and 1B Matt Olson (#15). By this time in the year, they could be reinforced with AA players like RHP Grant Holmes (#3), SS Richie Martin (#6), and 2B Max Schrock (#20). The diminutive Schrock was actually born in Tacoma, and has hit repeatedly since being drafted in 2015. His height and position keep him well down top prospect rankings, but he essentially never strikes out and has hit for average everywhere he’s been.
El Paso and Salt Lake close out the 2017 home schedule, with the final home series taking place from August 28th-31st. Get out and see some games this year; it’s a better year for prospects than last year, and while there’s no Kris Bryant to get on the calendar early, with promotions and the like, the above guide could be obsolete fairly quickly. I’ll try and mention if someone particularly noteworthy is coming through town in the minor league game previews.
Game 4, Mariners at Astros
Ariel Miranda vs. Joe Musgrove, 5:10pm
It’s ludicrous to talk about must-win games in the season’s first week; it’s like a marathoner talking about not getting out of the blocks well. But M’s fans are in a weird head space right now, and I’m sure many of them feel that this game IS critical. The M’s have gotten solid pitching against a good line-up and come away with nothing. The Astros seemed better (on paper) than the M’s, and now they’ve got a three-game head start. It’s already caused the M’s playoff odds to dwindle by a noticeable amount. Is the sky falling?
No, but that’s not to say that everything’s fine. Keuchel and McCullers are excellent pitchers, and they’re excellent in large part because they’re able to define the terms of at-bats. Every single hitter goes up knowing that they’re going to see a sinking fastball, and that the pitcher’s game plan is to induce a ground ball. Everything that the hitters try to do is aimed at countering that, at driving the pitchers up in the zone and driving a pitch in the air. With that perhaps overly obvious prologue, take a look at this list of teams’ average launch angle thus far. The Cubs and Orioles, you won’t be shocked to hear, are near the top with average angles over 10 degrees. Perhaps more surprising is that they’re trailing the Padres, who haven’t been great against the Dodgers, but have hit the ball in the air. The Pads have picked up a number of players with this skill, but it’s too early to say that they’re able to dictate terms to opposing pitchers: the Dodgers induce a lot of fly-ball (and pop-up) contact.
But look at the M’s! Last in the league, and the *only* team in baseball with a negative launch angle. Again, given who they’ve faced, this may not be all that shocking, or indicative of some sort of failing. It DOES show, though, that the M’s have been singularly ineffective at getting the Astros’ hurlers out of their comfort zone. The Astros wanted ground ball contact, and they’re getting it, again and again. The M’s have some fly ball hitters – the guys who are supposed to do *better* against ground-ball pitchers – but it hasn’t mattered thus far.
Musgrove flew through the Houston system and had an intriguing debut with the Astros last year. He throws an odd, straight 93 MPH fastball that’s been tough for batters to pick up. His best pitch has been a slider with a ton of horizontal break. In the minors, he showed absurdly low walk rates, and while they climbed a bit in the big leagues, it’s still one of his standout skills. The raw stuff isn’t eye-popping, but it plays up due to some deception and movement, and he’s not going to give away a lot of free passes. Against righties, he’s pitched a bit like yesterday’s starter, Charlie Morton, in that he pitches off his breaking ball. He’s a bit more traditional vs. lefties, but that slider’s a pitch he’ll throw any time. Lefties fared much better than righties, as you’d expect, so this game is critical for Cano/Seager.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Ruiz, C
8: Dyson, LF
9: Martin, CF
SP: Miranda
As expected, Dillon Overton was activated today from the paternity leave list, and Chase de Jong rejoins Tacoma.
Speaking of which, it’s been a while since I’ve been able to do this:
Tacoma faces off with the Rivercats in Sacramento (SFG), with Sam Gaviglio taking the hill for the Rainiers against Chris Stratton.
Arkansas plays their first game as an M’s affiliate with Andrew Moore on the mound, as the Travelers host the Corpus Christi Hooks (HOU).
Nick Neidert starts Modesto’s opener at Lake Elsinore, and Ljay Newsome takes the Clinton Lumberkings into Kane County (OAK).
2017 M’s Minor League Preview
What a difference a year makes. It’s difficult to overstate just how thoroughly the M’s full-season affiliates struggled in 2015, and while the new front office talked a good game regarding player development, they had an awful lot of work to do. Last year, every single M’s affiliate made the playoffs, from AAA down to the DSL. The M’s led all of baseball in minor league winning percentage, and while that’s not at all the same thing as having a deep/talented system, it was a sign that the coaches they brought in got much, much more out of many of the same players that were around for the abysmal year of 2015.
Many of the M’s top prospects exemplify this: Tyler O’Neill cut his strikeout rate on his way to a league MVP. Andrew Moore showed he was more than a college command/control guy and succeeded in the high minors. Nick Neidert made the leap from the Arizona League to full-season ball with aplomb.
Coaching and development played a role, but another factor helped the M’s affiliates post such a gaudy W/L record: the M’s brought in plenty of minor league vets to fit around their home-grown players, and many of them made important contributions. In general, those players don’t stick around, so guys like Bengie Gonzales (AA) or Kyle Schepel (A+/AA) have moved on, but the M’s have a new crop of MiLB and independent league vets this year. At AA and especially AAA, doing this is standard operating procedure, but the scale of it seems much greater under Dipoto; part of this is the volume of minor trades that hollowed out some of the system’s depth in the low minors, but part of it is simply a different philosophy to Zduriencik or especially Bavasi, who was content to see prospects (and teams) struggle if he thought it was best for player development.
After such a successful 2016, what will they do for an encore? After another offseason full of trades involving the minors, I’m looking for development at the individual player level and to see who steps forward and grabs a place in the M’s top 20-30 prospect lists. I’m looking to see if Tacoma pitching coach Lance Painter can work his magic on one of the R’s starters the way he did with James Paxton last year. As far as specific players go, I’m hoping that the M’s can resuscitate the development of DJ Peterson and Dan Vogelbach. This is always one of my favorite days of the year, and there’s a hell of a lot less trepidation/unease than there was last year at this time.
Class A Midwest League: Clinton Lumberkings
Last year: 86-54, lost league championship to Great Lakes (LAD)
Mitch Canham took over the team last year and led the club to a dominant season, so it’s no surprise that the ex-Oregon State catcher got a promotion of his own. That means that the club will have another new manager, this time Pat Shine, a former Gonzaga Bulldog and a longtime assistant to the UC-Irvine program and then with the Miami Marlins. He managed in the collegiate Northwoods League back before moving to UCI, but didn’t overlap with M’s Player Development guru Andy McKay, who coached a different team in the league after Shine moved to UCI. The Lumberkings will try to repeat last year’s success with newcomers like starting pitcher Ljay Newsome, an undersized righty out of a Maryland HS, and OF Dimas Ojeda, a JC draft pick who hit well for Everett last season. The bullpen looks pretty good, with Marvin Gorgas, Michael Koval and others. Nick Wells was my pitcher to watch last year, and he was perhaps the one big disappointment on a team full of overachievers. He’s back, and has an opportunity to rebuild some of his prospect lustre.
In the IF, Bryson Brigman moves up to split SS duties with returning starter Rayder Ascanio. Ojeda headlines the OF along with returning prospect Luis Liberato, whose season was undone by a dreadful start. Canadian slugger Gareth Morgan, who’s struggled making contact in three years in the complex league, finally gets a full-season assignment. Ultra talented, but contact issues have absolutely sunk his value. He’s a real test of the new PD group.
Position Player to Watch: Dimas Ojeda. Anthony Jimenez, a Dominican CF, is in the mix here, but Ojeda hit at a higher level last year, and they’re the same age. Jimenez plays CF, so that narrows the gap. Would love to see one of these two break out, and I’d love to see Liberato make the big strides that I hoped he’d make last season.
Pitcher to Watch: Ljay Newsome. Tim Viehoff is another great pick, as one of the M’s myriad small college in the northeast draft picks, and he put up a nice 55:23 K:BB ratio in just 39 IP last year, PLUS he’s a lefty and has prototypical size. Newsome has none of that – he’s under 6′, a righty, and wasn’t a high draft pick. But he gets rave reviews for his competitiveness and pitchability, and hopefully he can ride that to a surprising season.
Opposing team to watch: For the 2nd straight year, it’s Quad Cities (HOU), who feature 6’7″ pitching prospect Forrest Whitley and CF prospect Daz Cameron, ex-M’s CF Mike Cameron’s son. Cameron struggled mightily after the Astros pushed him to the MWL initially, so he’s looking to make a very different impression this year.
High-A California League: Modesto Nuts
Last Year (as Bakersfield Blaze): 76-64, lost div. semifinals to Visalia (ARI)
Mitch Canham will try to make the playoffs in his first year in a new league yet again this year, as he’ll take over Modesto, a brand new M’s affiliate. Bakersfield was contracted, and weird, wonderful Sam Lynn Ballpark won’t host any Cal League baseball this year, but the M’s picked up the Modesto contract from Colorado. The pitching staff’s anchored by top prospect Nick Neidert, who more than held his own in the Midwest League at age 19. He’ll throw more IP this year, and we’ll see how aggressive the M’s want to be with his assignments. That’d be a nice problem to have. Also on the staff are college draft pick Reggie McLain, who gets the challenge assignment after pitching for Everett last year, and a pair of 6’3″ hurlers who starred for Clinton last year, Pablo Lopez (K:BB ratio of 56:9) and Art Warren (55:18). The IF’s headed up by Gianfranco Wawoe, who’ll repeat the Cal League, and newcomer Joey Curletta, whom the M’s acquired from PHI in exchange for Pat Venditte. The OF features glove-first CF’s Braden Biship and Ricky Eusebio, and they’ll be flanked by Indy/MiLB vet Willie Argo and Eric Filia, who the M’s drafted out of UCLA and who overmatched the NWL with a line of .362/.450/.492. He had 39 walks and just 19 Ks on the year for Everett, so of course the control-the-zone M’s bumped him past Clinton.
Position Player to Watch: None of the position players are young (or even average aged) for the league, so it’s a bit hard to pick here. We’ll go with Filia, whose development in college was stunted by a number of injuries, which was why he was 23 when the M’s picked him. Braden Bishop, the ex-UW Husky, is another pick, as his blend of speed and defense are basically MLB caliber, but whose bat trails far behind. If he can tap into even gap power, he’ll shoot up the prospect rankings. As it is, his career MiLB ISO is under .070. If that gets to .130 or so, he could become an intriguing OF. The Cal League will help with that, of course.
Pitcher to Watch: Neidert. The M’s first pick in the 2015 draft, Neidert has been at least as good as advertised in the M’s system. He’s polished beyond his years, and could make a statement this year in a real hitter’s league.
Opposing Team to Watch: Lancaster JetHawks. After losing the Modesto team, Colorado picked up Lancaster, the hitter’s haven. Their line-up is stocked with wonderfully named IF Forrest Wall, and SS Brendan Rogers, one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Those two make the best DP combination in the league by far. Also, they have a catcher named Hamlet Marte.
AA Texas League: Arkansas Travelers
Last Year (as Jackson Generals in the Southern League: 84-55, League Champions
Daren Brown moves with the affiliation, as the former Rainiers manager helmed Jackson to a league championship in their last year in the Southern League. The M’s had a Texas League affiliate years ago with San Antonio, but it’s been 11 years since the M’s were last a part of it. The Texas League’s the smallest of the three AA leagues, and is probably a bit more hitter-friendly than the Eastern League/Southern League. That said, the M’s are moving into a park that’s absolutely dreadful for power, particularly right-handed power. Statcorner puts their HR park factor for RHBs at an absurd 57, and MiLB’s own park factors (for all batters) are in that same vicinity. Keep that in mind when looking at AA stats this year.
The pitchers are led by Andrew Moore and Max Povse. Moore was the consummate polished collegiate pick, an Oregon State vet with an underwhelming fastball but solid command and great intangibles. Max Povse was, perhaps, the opposite: a mammoth 6’7″ frame and easy velocity but results that lagged behind his physical gifts. The bullpen features Brazilian fireballer Thyago Vieira, a candidate to join the big leagues if he can get past the control issues that sunk his spring training. Long-time M’s MiLB vets Marcus Littlewood and Tyler Marlette will catch. Every year at this time I talk up Marlette. One day, man.
Ryan Casteel, an MiLB veteran who had some good Cactus League ABs, joins the club along with returning IFs Justin Seager and Kyle Petty. AAA veteran Joey Wong will start at shortstop. The all-lefty OF features Chantz Mack, a corner OF with some pop, and Ian Miller, a CF without any, but who makes up for it with plus speed. Another MiLB vet, Kyle Waldrop, will play as well; Waldrop came up in the Reds org, and actually made the majors for a bit last year with Cincinnati.
Position Player to Watch: Uhhh, Marlette? Marlette was drafted way back in 2011, and had a rough go of it for a few years at the tail end of the Zduriencik era. He remains, somehow, the youngest position player on this roster (!). Chantz Mack is your runner-up.
Pitcher to Watch: Moore. Povse opened a lot of eyes in camp, and with a 95 MPH fastball, it’s easy to see why. But Moore is no longer sitting in the high-80s; he’s throwing 93 himself, and is slowly but surely breaking out of his old reputation. He was dominant at times down the stretch at this level last year, and after a strong spring, may get a look if the big club’s starters have injury issues. Thyago Vieira is absolutely fascinating, but can’t get past the two starters on this list.
Opposing Team to Watch: Springfield Cardinals. They’ve got pitching prospects Jack Flaherty, Sandy Alcantara and Austin Gomber, a bunch of position players no one knows (but one of whom will inevitably make the bigs and succeed), but I think all eyes are on ex-MLB closer and Steve Blass’ disease sufferer Daniel Bard.
AAA Pacific Coast League: Tacoma Rainiers
Last year: 81-62, lost in PCL Playoffs to El Paso (SDP)
It’s not often that the AAA club boasts the most intriguing roster, but I’d argue that’s what we have here. The pitching staff is designed to offer immediate help to the big club, and that’s most obvious in the bullpen, which features tons of big league experience. Ex-Cleveland Indian and UW Husky Nick Hagadone joins the org to play near his hometown, and ex-Giants RP Jean Machi will begin the year in Tacoma as well. Mark Lowe will rejoin the Rainiers, a team he’s pitched for (briefly) twice after making his big league debut with Seattle back in 2006. The rotation of Sam Gaviglio, Chris Heston, Dylan Unsworth, Christian Bergman and, we think, Chase de Jong is a strength, as Bergman and Heston have big league experience. Only Unsworth is a home-grown Mariner, and he looks to become the first African player to make the big leagues. While his fastball struggles to scrape 90, he’s made adjustments and used his pinpoint command to succeed in AA, and he’s coming off a very surprising Cactus League stint with the M’s. The bullpen features lefty Paul Fry, who shook off a mediocre first half to become the shut-down reliever I thought he could be down the stretch. He’s on the 40-man, so he could be someone the M’s bring up if they need another lefty. Tony Zych will start in Tacoma on a rehab assignment as well.
The infield features returning players Tyler Smith at SS and Zach Shank at 3B, though both have played all over the IF. Smith showed a bit of pop in Peoria; it’d be nice to see if that made the trip north with him. MLB vet Gordon Beckham just joined the club, after spending last year in the Anaheim system. Still, the focus will be on a pair of bat-first corner IFs: former 1st round pick and former #1 prospect DJ Peterson, who’s seen his stock fall due to injuries and a surprisingly lackluster hit tool, and Dan Vogelbach, the presumed starting 1B in Seattle before a bad spring got him sent down to AAA to work on a few mechanical adjustments. The OF boasts another couple of prospects in Tyler O’Neill and Ben Gamel.
Position Player to Watch: Despite the interest in Vogelbach/Peterson, the answer here has to be Tyler O’Neill. The top hitting prospect in the organization is coming off of a dream season in AA that saw him take the league MVP and then the league championship series MVP awards. He’s cut his strikeouts and become more of a complete hitter, but there are still enough question marks here that his will be a name to look for every day in the box score. AAA features a lot more craft veterans, and pitchers who know how to identify and exploit a hole in a prospect’s swing. How will O’Neill adjust? How will he fare in the spacious OF at Cheney Stadium? For a top-50-in-baseball sort of player, O’Neill still has some warning signs in his profile: he’s battled contact issues and while a wRC+ of 152 is great, it’s not jaw-dropping as the best season in a bat-first corner defender’s career. O’Neill can make the leap to big league contributor this year, or he could struggle for a while before making some adjustments to good pitching. I’m really looking forward to watching him this season.
Pitcher to Watch: Chris Heston. Tempted to go with Fry or newly-acquired reliever Evan Marshall, but even if they’re more likely to pitch in Seattle, they probably won’t have much of an impact. With one starter already on the 60-day DL and with another throwing 84, it’s starting pitching depth that’s critical to keeping the M’s afloat. As a major league vet who’s on the 40-man and returning from a serious arm injury, Heston can either solidify big league starting depth, or he can falter and wash out of the org. If he’s able to get back to the form he showed in 2014-15, he’s a brilliant get by Dipoto.
Opposing Team to Watch: Iowa Cubs. This is another pick that seems like a default choice now. The Cubs AAA affiliate features 2B Ian Happ, ex-Rockies P Eddie Butler, and at some point could feature OF Eloy Jimenez. El Paso is another possibility, with IF Carlos Asuaje and pitchers Phil “Auto” Maton and Walker Lockett.
Game 3: Mariners at Astros (And Iwakuma’s Performance Yesterday)
James Paxton vs. Charlie Morton, 5:10pm
This isn’t the *best* match-up of the season’s opening series, but I think it’s the one that fans of both teams are most curious about. James Paxton’s transformation last year from frustrating, frequenty-injured enigma to fireballing potential ace was thrilling, but it didn’t erase the question marks surrounding his future – it merely expanded the range of possibilities. Peak Paxton looked a hell of a lot better, if you can get past the health issues or his own historic issues maintaining velocity. On the Houston side, Charlie Morton had been a reliably boring, pitch-to-contact groundball maven, but he had a brilliant month with Philadelphia as a strikeout pitcher throwing much harder than he ever had before.
Both of these pitchers showed flashes of previously untapped, undreamed-of levels of performance last year. Neither pitched a full season in the bigs – Paxton because he didn’t make the team initially, and Morton because of a hamstring injury. But both attracted attention by gaining velocity -a LOT of velocity – well beyond the age that pitchers generally begin LOSING velocity. Both have a lot to prove. Morton looked like a completely different pitcher…but for a single month. Paxton looked excellent for longer, but his club needs him much more; Paxton falling back into decent-but-not-great form of 2016 would be a major blow to the M’s playoff hopes, while the Astros would still have McCullers/Keuchel/McHugh/etc. to lean on if Morton goes back to being regular-Charlie-Morton. The range of outcomes for these pitchers is perhaps wider than all but a handful of uber-talented rookies, and that makes the match-up a great one to watch.
Morton threw a 95 MPH swerving sinker last year, but in previous years it was more like 92-93. His change-up is a good split-grip pitch with drop and a ton of armside run thrown around 86 MPH, and his primary breaking ball’s a curve. Last year, though, he brought back an old pitch he’d thrown only sporadically since about 2011-12: a cutter. With the uptick in velo, his new cutter averaged 90 MPH and generated plenty of swinging strikes. As a sinkerball righty, Morton’s big problem in Pittsburgh was his inability to deal with lefties (in his career, lefties have hit .301/.392/.466 against him). In his excellent month last year, he’d narrowed (but not eliminated) his platoon splits, and the cutter may have helped him accomplish this. To be fair: the big change in his platoon split results came on his sinker, against which the league slugged just .308. Everything you can say about Morton’s 2016 comes with the huge caveat that it was only a month, and thus no one really knows what to make of him now.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Dyson, LF
9: Martin, CF
SP: Paxton
Soooo, let’s talk Hisashi Iwakuma. His final start of the spring was, let’s just say, not encouraging. His first start of the regular season produced a quality start, and a part of me thinks we should just leave it at that. But the Iwakuma we saw last night looked a whole lot like the Iwakuma of the spring, and from a pitch mix standpoint, nothing like we’ve seen from Iwakuma in the past. Those close to the team argue, with some justification, that Iwakuma’s fastball is roughly the same as it was last year, which itself was down a bit from his previous averages. Pull up his BrooksBaseball card, and you’ll see that his four-seam fastball was 88.6 MPH last year and 87.3 MPH last night – a drop, but not the end of the world. The problem is that Iwakuma’s now throwing a ton of pitches in the low-80s and even high-70s, and Pitch FX isn’t really sure what to call them. Statcast thinks he threw 2 four-seam fastballs last night, while Brooks thinks it was 8. Both agree that they were in the 87 MPH range. Both think he threw 8-9 sinkers at about 86. From there, though, it’s less clear. Statcast thinks he threw 17 cutters around 81 MPH, or 20 cutters+sliders all in the 80 MPH range. Brooks thinks he threw 20 sliders, by far the most of any pitch type, and just 2 cutters at 84 or so. The issues are magnified by the fact that pitch fx data seems to be missing for several innings, so the total pitch numbers don’t match.
But if you think that Iwakuma’s fastball is down “only” 2 MPH, then you also must believe that he’s all but given up on it, and now pitches backwards from his slider/cutter – something no Mariner fan would ever have picked out as the pitch he needs to feature more often. If that’s accurate, then Iwakuma is substituting his subpar fastball with breaking balls at a rate roughly double anything we’ve ever seen from him. He threw about 1/2 breaking balls last night, if you include those slow cutters. If you believe that’s he’s using his cutter as a fastball, or that he’s only able to touch 87 very occasionally by reaching for a bit extra, then the problem’s a bit different. In that case, he’s now the Japanese Jamie Moyer and will have to ensure his command’s perfect. Last night, despite the walks, he essentially did that. Either way, Iwakuma threw the vast majority of his tracked pitches last night between 79-82. He’s never done that in a big league game. Whether it was strategy or capability, we’re still not quite sure.
Either way (“he’s just pitching backwards!” or “Yes, he throws 84 rather often now, but he can get away with it!”), it’s concerning because it’s such a break from his previous approach. Iwakuma’s savvy enough to adjust his approach and rely on his control/command to give himself a chance to succeed, but he’s simply never needed to make adjustments of this magnitude before. That’s tough for any pitcher, and while command can help, doing this consistently is going to be a challenge.
Game 2: Mariners at Astros
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Lance McCullers, 5:10pm
Hmmm. It’s one game, and the M’s faced a recent Cy Young winner last night, but it’s tough given the excitement of the day to see the M’s throttled so thoroughly by Dallas Keuchel et al. And it doesn’t get any easier tonight, with the M’s facing another elite ground ball pitcher, righty Lance McCullers.
Dave had a great article on the guy last week at Fangraphs, noting why he was picking him to win the AL Cy Young this season. He’s struggled to stay healthy, and missed time last year with various arm ailments, but has been incredible when he’s able to take the ball. He’s got a sinking 94-96 MPH fastball that gets plenty of ground balls thanks to his low 3/4 arm slot and natural armside run, but his bread and butter is a borderline-unfair curve/slider thing that’s thrown very hard (around 85-86). This would seem to make him susceptible to platoon splits, as sinker/slider guys are often torched by opposite-handed hitters, but McCullers has, thus far at least, run reverse splits. The credit for that goes to his high-spin curve that has the horizontal break and velocity of a great slider, but the vertical depth of a curve. It essentially checks every box: batters swing and miss it all the time, when they DO contact it, it goes for ground balls (as Dave mentioned, McCullers gave up just 5 HRs in 14 starts last year), and he’s able to control it fairly well. Batters have *slugged* .209 off of it in McCullers’ two-year career, but lefties have fared even worse, with just a .186 SLG% against the thing.
You might think that after recurring arm troubles have cropped up, he’d throw less of it. Instead, when he came back from early-season shoulder problems (!), he started throwing his breaking ball all the time. He ended up using it more than his fastball – a full half of his pitches last year were curves. Batters have squared up his fastball reasonably well, and his change looks good but hasn’t been effective as of yet. So he responded by throwing a blizzard of a pitch that no one’s figured out. Makes some sense to me.
Besides health, the big red flag with McCullers has been control. Maybe it’s the swerving run on it, but McCullers’ command of his fastball trails his curve command, and thus he’s posted high walk rates both in the majors and on the farm. If the M’s can be patient and work their way into good counts, they’re more likely to get his fastball, and obviously more likely to get on base. That’s going to be important, as we didn’t get to see too much of the M’s new-and-improved baserunning last night.
Soooo, this is Hisashi Iwakuma’s first start since…whatever that was happened in Peoria the other day. I think I’m more nervous about Iwakuma right now than Yovani Gallardo, and I’m not exactly confident in the newcomer. A healthy Iwakuma becomes one of the better middle-of-the-rotation arms in the league. An unhealthy Iwakuma is going to try to face this Astros line-up with 86 MPH “fastballs” and a lot of guile. No one combines command, competitiveness and pitching smarts like Iwakuma, but there’s a velocity floor below which no one can be effective in today’s major leagues. Iwakuma is getting really, really close to it. If it’s not health and just mechanical foibles, that’s not a whole lot better: Iwakuma minus command would actually be worse than Iwakuma WITH command and an 84-85 MPH fastball. He’s at the point in his career where everything has to be working, and on every pitch. Fingers crossed.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, LF
SP: Iwakuma
The M’s have, as expected, moved Drew Smyly to the 60-day DL and with a spot open on the roster, have picked up Evan Marshall off of waivers. Marshall’s pitched in portions of three seasons with the Diamondbacks, and throws a good 95 MPH sinker along with a splitter-style change-up and slider/cutter (both around 86). Despite the velocity, he’s not been a strikeout guy – he’s a ground ball machine. It’s an intriguing arsenal, albeit one that hasn’t been sufficient to allow him to reliably stay on anyone’s active roster. Walks are a big part of the reason why, and that’s something he’ll work on down in Tacoma for a while.
Game 1, Mariners at Astros
Felix Hernandez vs. Dallas Kuechel, 5:10pm
Happy Felix Day, and a felicitous Felix New Year to all of you.
The M’s have playoff expectations this year, but that’s not actually new: they were *supposed* to win back in 2015, and while they weren’t favored in 2016, they were clearly in the wild card picture both in the projections and, as it turned out, in real life. This year feels different, somehow, and it’s not just because they’re coming off a good year and made a series of trades to improve the roster. The difference this year is that the club reflects the goals and strategy of the GM much more. We’ve talked at length about how the core of this team was put in place by Jack Zduriencik (and even Bill Bavasi – love you, Felix), and so Jerry Dipoto’s job was to do a better job of filling in the complementary pieces either through player development or through trade. In his first year on the job, Dipoto really focused on the trade market to bring in guys we now see as more marginal. This year, from the Walker/Segura trade to the acquisitions of Jarrod Dyson and Drew Smyly, fans have a sense not only of what the M’s are trying to do, but how they want to do it.
The M’s want to lead the world in OF defense and greatly improve their baserunning. They won’t be trying to out-slug the Astros or Red Sox, but, the idea is that they’ll have easily enough offense to win with their current pitching staff. There are a number of key assumptions that drive that simple-sounding summary, and the M’s have actually been pretty open about what they are (another notable difference from their predecessors in the M’s FO): they want their pitchers to yield fly balls and thus drive down their opponent’s expected batting average. They hope Safeco reverts to form and helps hold down opponent HRs. They assume improvements in the top of the order will help the middle of the order drive in more runs. They believe improvements on the basepaths add up to an easy win or two. And, crucially, they believe all of this adds up to a team that can compete with Houston, tonight’s opponent.
The M’s need to see how they stack up against an opponent whose projected batting lines exceed the M’s at 8 of the 9 line-up spots (OK, technically Cruz/Correa are tied in the clean-up spot). They need to see if Felix is prepared to make the adjustments he needs to make to give the team its ace back. Felix has struggled mightily against the Astros in the past two seasons, and that can’t continue if the M’s want to hold off Houston. With the depth the Astros have at their disposal, the M’s will need to be both healthy and creative to either reduce their need for depth or to gin up solutions to roster holes.
All of this makes it sound like a nearly impossible challenge, and that’s going too far. We know the Astros can fritter away an “on paper” advantage: they did it last year! But the M’s are going to be fascinating to watch this year, and could do something much better than just compete for a division title: they could extend their competitive window. If Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura live up to a fraction of M’s fans hopes, the trade that brought them north will be seen as a franchise-changing one. Dyson/Valencia/Cruz even Martin and Cano won’t be around long term, but a core involving Seager/Segura/Haniger with lion-in-winter contributions from Cano and whoever else the M’s assemble is a decent starting point. It’s not enough, not on its own, so that’s where the team’s player development group comes in. As it stands now, the M’s farm system looks somewhat weak, especially after Tyler O’Neill and the rehabbing Kyle Lewis. That won’t cut it, and so as important as it is to see Segura in 2017, it’ll be critical for the M’s to develop another complementary big league piece or two. A comeback from DJ Peterson? A leap forward from one of the low-minors arms? Dan Vogelbach making some key adjustments? None of this is far fetched, and it’ll be fun to see who steps up and pushes their way into contention for a big league job.
But for the 9th time, today is mostly about Felix. His struggles not only doomed the M’s playoff push, but made the entire season less enjoyable than it otherwise would have been. Quite obviously, we can handle not making the playoffs – we’re well-versed in finding value in other elements of the regular season. But there’s something jarring about watching Felix stumble, even as we know he can’t pitch forever. I want to see another big adjustment and a comeback player of the year award for the big righty. I tell myself that I’d rather have Felix play a minor role on a playoff team than a starring role for a loser, and I think even Felix would agree with that, but ace-level-Felix is one of the most compelling things I’ve seen in decades of being a fan, and I’m really glad to have seen it. A part of me wants that back more than anything team-related. I’ll try to keep that part of myself away from the keyboard this year, but he may make a few appearances.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, LF
SP: King. Felix.
I think Houston holds off the M’s this year. I think the M’s compete for a wild card and end up getting the 2nd one. I think run scoring continues to climb, and that Safeco continues to see record numbers of home runs. I think Tampa’s a contender, that Texas looks much better than people think, but that their weird base runs devil magic runs out.