Game 28, Angels at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Ricky Nolasco, 7:10pm
Last night’s loss was tough to take. Edwin Diaz seems so, I don’t know, HUMAN all of the sudden. His strikeout rate’s good, the velo seems to be there, but the sense of inevitable dominance certainly isn’t. Small sample, I know, but I’m not talking about Diaz’s talent, I’m talking about what it feels like when Diaz enters a game now, and how different that feeling is than 8 months ago. Everything about him seems like it’s on fast-forward, from his meteoric rise after transitioning to the pen to spending all of 3-4 months as one of the most dominant relievers in the game, and then this (perhaps inevitable) fall. He’s young, he’s still got great stuff – he can come out of this and reclaim his spot among the elite closers, but man, the M’s track record of helping pitchers successfully pull out of tailspins isn’t great. They’ve sent Dan Altavilla back to Tacoma, and Cishek’s hanging out there for a while as they work on his mechanics. Sending their closer down would seem like a vote of no confidence in the big league coaching staff as well as a white flag on the season, so I don’t think anything like that’s close. But games like last night’s put you in a pessimistic mood.
If that wasn’t cheery enough, James Paxton lost the strikezone, and while he kept the club in the game, it ultimately wasn’t enough. It certainly feels like the M’s need to win his starts, given the uncertainty in the rotation behind him. That’s a nearly impossible burden to put on a guy, even one as talented and locked in as Paxton’s been this year. But while Matt Shoemaker isn’t chopped liver, the offense needs to be a bit less streaky – a bit more consistent from game to game. They had plenty of chances to do more damage against both Shoemaker and the Angels pen, but couldn’t quite do it. The 9th inning comeback was great, but why’d you NEED a 9th inning comeback?
Hisashi Iwakuma starts tonight, and tries to extend his little run of solid pitching despite down velocity. He was great in Detroit, hitting his spots and avoiding the heart of the zone, but he hasn’t been able to do that consistently this year. Getting the ball down is key for Iwakuma these days, as batters are turning more of his missed fastballs into home runs. Balls that fall below the zone can’t really hurt, and if they’re splitters, they may even induce an ill-advised swing. Balls that fall in the middle or top of the zone (at 83 MPH) become souvenirs.
That’s why Iwakuma’s been so focused on the low pitch, as we’ve talked about. I’ve re-checked the numbers, and among all pitchers who’ve thrown at least 150 pitches this year, Hisashi Iwakuma’s rate of pitches at the lower edge of the strikezone and below ranks 17th out of 330 pitchers. Nearly 46% of his pitches aren’t just lower than the midpoint, but *extremely* low. Among starting pitchers, that percentage ranks 7th in baseball; Dallas Keuchel is famously #1 by a mile among SPs, with Mike Leake, Wade Miley and Zach Greinke a ways back. A few of these guys – Keuchel, Andrew Triggs, Leake – use this strategy to induce a lot of ground balls. But others, like Greinke, Miley and Iwakuma, aren’t putting up insane GB rates. Greinke and Iwakuma aren’t even above average.
That might be a good thing. If you remember, I talked about the VERY early team defense numbers a few weeks back, and how the M’s outfield defense didn’t look as amazing as promised. But that was only after 9 games – far too early to tell much, right? Well, it’s been a bit longer, and the overall numbers still look similar. The M’s team defensive efficiency – the percentage of balls in play they turn into outs – is still stuck just below .700, among the worst in the league. At that point, the M’s defensive efficiency just on fly balls ranked 16th. Now, with a few more weeks of play, and with Jarrod Dyson in CF, they rank…15th. There are really two main takeaways you get from comparing the numbers after 10 games to the numbers after 27 – first, the M’s pitchers aren’t quite as ground-ball heavy as they were in the early going and second, the M’s have been awful on ground balls.
The M’s defensive efficiency on ground balls now stands at .710, by a wide margin the worst in baseball. Baseball Prospectus’ data on DER by batted ball type seems to go back to 2003. In that time, no team has *ever* posted a DER on ground balls as low as the M’s current .710. For years and years, the *lowest* DER on grounders would be in the .740s. This is…this is bad, people. The 1B position has been suspect at times, but probably doesn’t get enough chances to make an impact like this. Taylor Motter probably isn’t a true SS, and had to fill in for Jean Segura, and that’d make a dent in the team’s DER. But the magnitude here, especially with some solid defenders racking up innings, suggests something more systemic. The M’s shift all the time now, and while Manny Acta proudly mentioned the number of plays saved thanks to the shift last year, I’m seeing less of it this year. A lot of this may be luck, but I’m wondering if the M’s are either shifting too much, or shifting incorrectly. There’s no reason for *this* group of players to put up historically bad defensive efficiency numbers, but as long as they are, I guess I’m glad Hisashi Iwakuma’s not a ground ball pitcher anymore.
I lambasted the odd trade last year that sent Hector Santiago to Minnesota in exchange for Ricky Nolasco and Ricky Nolasco’s big contract, but wouldn’t you know it, it hasn’t been a disaster for Anaheim. Nolasco, coming off a year and a half of replacement-level pitching in the Twin Cities, ended 2016 with 21 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. He tossed a CG shutout earlier in his Angels’ tenure. This year, he hasn’t been great thanks to a persistently high HR rate, but…I wanted a disaster, not quiet mediocrity and admirable consistency. This year, even Santiago’s getting into the act, running a very nice ERA and FIP in a handful of starts. People always talk about win-win trades, but they’re hard to find in the wild. This boring swap of back-end starters may be an example.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Heredia, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: Iwakuma
Remember when Taylor Motter’s bat was unbenchable, and how he’d get starts in the OF and 1B? That was *so* April. We’re moving on, people.
Tacoma beat Las Vegas 5-3 last night at Cashman Field, and thought it was so enjoyable, they’ve done it again today. Yesterday’s win featured more solid pitching from Christian Bergman, who’d been in Seattle by now if he had, I don’t know, Dillon Overton’s 40-man spot. They also got HRs from Dario Pizzano and Zach Shank. Today, they got a decent start from Ryan Weber, and a HR from DJ Peterson. They needed 11 innings to get to their 5-3 result, but that just let the bullpen show off – they pitched 5 scoreless and racked up 5 Ks against no walks.
Tulsa and Arkansas were rained out today.
Modesto beat San Jose 4-3 behind Pablo Lopez and a shutdown save from Lukas Schiraldi. Braden Bishop had a hit and a walk. Last night, the Giants used a 6-run inning to pull away from the Nuts and win 11-7. Kody Kerski gave up 8 runs in 1 IP, and Bishop doubled and singled.
Clinton held on to that 5-0 lead I mentioned yesterday, albeit barely. They ended up with a 5-4 win over Lake County. Today, they lost another close one to tastefully-named Eudis Idrogo 3-2. Idrogo, a Venezuelan lefty, spent 3 years pitching in the VSL for the Tigers affiliate, and in each year, he allowed 12 walks. His innings totals varied, as did his other results, but in each campaign: 12 free passes. He made his way to the US affiliates in 2015, splitting time between the NY-Penn league and the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Combined, he threw 54 1/3 IP that year, with, yes, 12 walks. Last year, Eudis Idrogo showed that he’s his own man; good luck trying to figure out what Idrogo’s gonna do. You don’t OWN Idrogo. (He gave up 14 walks). Ronald Dominguez tossed 4 IP of scoreless relief in today’s game.
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25 Responses to “Game 28, Angels at Mariners”
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Why was Diaz even in the game in the 8th when they had Pazos up and ready to face the lefty? Servais hasn’t been handling the pen that well at all and that worries me.
Motter’s seeing a lot more outside stuff now. Seemed pretty obvious pitchers would stop throwing him inside, but he can’t adjust if he isn’t playing. Heredia has hit fairly well, but he’s seen a lot of fastballs and that seems to be the only pitch he can hit. Will be fun to see how he looks when he sees more breaking stuff.
Nolasco looks really good tonight… It’s very discouraging.
That is how it should be done! I mean Segura HR was a nice touch but moving runners and driving them in.
Good Job now lets just win this!
I’m enjoying watching Gamel establish himself as solid gap hitter, but man, has Cruz been on a terror.
And just like that the Angels are right back in this game… speak of being on a tear, Trout is so damn good.
Iwakuma has really struggled to get through the order that third time around. I want the old Iwakuma back.
Iwakuma running on fumes facing the lineup for the third time.
Small sample size but opponents were hitting .412 off Iwakuma during 3rd time through batting order entering tonight.
Oh man – what a catch!!!
Here we go again. Please stop doing this!
Yeah, makes sense to me. Vincent threw a third of an inning last night, so why not have the rookie make his debut in a high-pressure situation?
This season feels like some kind of sick cruel joke that is being played on us Mariners fans.
Mike Z should go. Regardless of his defensive value.
After supporting Seattle baseball since 1959, it is finally just getting harder and harder to care at all anymore.
Three guys all watching strike 3. Pretty impressive 6th inning. Zunino showed the best “watching” form though. IMO. 90 mph fastball – straight – and he watched it the whoooole way. Way to dial in, Mike.
I’m just listening and watching Gameday, and it’s hard to watch.
@stevem Agreed. Take it a step further. Maybe even bring in Diaz to put out the fire? I know its untraditional to bring in your closer in earlier innings. But this team doesn’t come back, and Diaz has been in a save situation in like 5 of 27 games..
So its something to consider.
I’ve only actually seen about 10 pitches of this game so far because of the bad internet connections I get. Recorded games on MLB.TV typically take about 8hrs to finish and even at that, I only see about 10% of the actual action. I just don’t expect to be bothering to even try anymore for much longer.
Lol i hope my lack of faith inspired the rally.
Season is young but Segura has been absolutely $$
Lol. It is … never…. easy
2 nights in a row now he’s homered off Diaz.
I will gladly take the win.
Any victory waiting for Smyly and Haniger and the King to get back in the lineup is a great victory, indeed.
Late to the party–I didn’t get to see this game, but thankfully I got to waste nearly five hours of my life watching last night’s game–but I’m glad they pulled it out.
A couple observations on the DER numbers: The M’s fly ball defense is probably a little underrated by strictly looking at their ordinal rank, as there’s a big logjam of teams in front of them. They’re 6 points ahead of the Rockies in 16th place, but the team 6 points ahead of Seattle, Kansas City, is in 8th place. I think it’s fair to say they have something like a top 10ish defensive outfield. As for the ground ball defense, it’s really hard to say what’s going on. Bad positioning? Bad contact management? Bad range? They’ve been pretty good at turning double plays, so I suspect it’s not all on the fielders.
Lastly, the Angels’ absurd .957 fly ball DER doesn’t seem surprising, after the game Maybin had last night.
Well, the obvious problem is pitching. 26th in era, 29th in opponents BAA at last count. Having Smyly and Felix hurting doesn’t help. Having Gallandro on the roster doesn’t help, either, for that matter.
You really have to praise the offense for keeping the games competitive with how terrible pitching has been.
We broke camp with like a 57 man pitching staff, it’s just frustrating that we literally are a month into the season and no one has really shone besides Paxton.
Starting pitching has been bad outside of patching. Middle innings have been hideous. And Diaz has looked shaky in the very limited times he’s been in pressure spots.
If I’m fixing things on the fly, I’m looking into bringing in a Cliff Lee-type of band aid sooner rather than later. 7 games out is nuts, we can’t lose the wild card early, too.
Better stat for looking at the pitching would be xFIP, and the M’s are 17th. 7th worst in baseball in HR rate.