Game 29, Angels at Mariners – Bullpen Woes Continue
Ariel Miranda vs. Alex Meyer, 7:10pm
I suppose if we’re going to endure another gut-punch of a game, another late-inning collapse, the least the M’s could do is pull it out and get a win. Their big 4-run inning to take the second game of the series was great, but about all of these gut-punches… could we have fewer of those?
The M’s front office has spent more effort on remaking their bullpen over the past two seasons, and at this rate, a list of transactions for 2017 will approach David Foster Wallace lengths based almost solely on bullpen moves. Overton/Heston/de Jong kept rotating between Seattle and Tacoma, Casey Fien was in, then out, then back in, then back out, and now Jean Machi and Emilio Pagan have joined the team. It’s been a hell of a month.
One of the things that an 8-man bullpen should do is give a manager the flexibility to use the platoon advantage (or play match ups) frequently. You don’t have to worry about burning Marc Rzepczynski early in the game in a critical situation, as you go to LOOGY #2 or #3. The M’s have had the potential to do this, and reap the benefits of a sustained platoon advantage, but it hasn’t quite worked out. Even with Scrabble and James Pazos holding lefties in check, the team as a whole has struggled against them. We’ve seen what Kole Calhoun’s done to Edwin Diaz the past two nights, and it’s been something that the back of the bullpen (Fien, Evan Marshall, etc.) has struggled with in the opening month.
Fundamentally, the M’s haven’t been benefiting from their investment in roster spots in the pen. By win probability added, a context-driven stat measuring how each player improves a team’s chance to win or lose, the M’s bullpen has been second-worst in MLB, just ahead of Texas. Given Sam Dyson’s array of meltdowns, that might seem surprising, but then after the past two nights, it seems almost too obvious to mention. The M’s rank 10th in bullpen innings pitched, but dead last in ERA, 26th in FIP, and 29th in strand rate. As their FIP seems to indicate, they’re better than their results thus far. Unfortunately, they’re probably not great, and they kind of need to be if the M’s want to make a run at this, especially given the starting rotation’s problems.
That’s the frustrating part: for all of the challenges the rotation’s had, they’ve kept the M’s in games. Gallardo and de Jong have had some awful games, and Iwakuma couldn’t get past the 3rd inning once, etc., but the rotation’s 13th in the league in ERA and 14th by FIP. They’re not world beaters or anything, but they’re (barely) in the top half of baseball, and that’s with Felix missing a start, with Yovani Gallardo figuring things out on the fly, with Iwakuma throwing batting-practice-speed fastballs, and Drew Smyly on the 60-day DL. Why have the less-than-ideal stopgaps kind of worked in the rotation, whereas they’ve nearly all backfired in the pen? I hope the M’s can figure that one out, and quickly.
The M’s face tall righty Alex Meyer tonight, a fireballing disappointment who came over in the Nolasco/Santiago trade I talked about the other day. A former first-round pick of the Nats, he moved to Minnesota straight up in a deal for starting CF Denard Span. At 6’9″ and armed with a fastball averaging 96-97, he was a consensus top-100 prospect, the kind of guy who could get traded for a big league regular with some club control left. But while he wasn’t bad in the minors, he also never quite lived up to his ace potential. His strikeout rates were fine, but he just seemed to give up too many runs. Cups of coffee with Minnesota and, last year, Anaheim showed he wasn’t quite ready, and he got knocked around in 4 starts in the PCL this season.
Velocity is good for pitchers. Meyer is better than he otherwise would be if he “only” threw 92-93, but Meyer is perhaps the best example of a guy struggling despite high-octane stuff. His curve doesn’t get as much break as most other pitchers’ do, but that’s directly related to its speed. At over 85 MPH, it’s well over 2 standard deviations faster than the average big league hook. By velo alone, it starts to look kind of slider-y, and this high-power slurve has been very, very tough for big league batters to square up. Meyer’s struggles are directly related to his fastball, the one that’s averaged 96+. Over his short MLB career, batters have slugged *.769* on Meyer’s four-seamer. They’ve slugged under .300 on his curve (and change, his third pitch). Part of this may be due to his delivery; lefties have torched him, implying at least that they can pick up the ball quickly against him. Meyer uses his height to generate a downward plane, targeting the bottom of the zone, particularly to lefties. His swerving, sinking four-seam seems tailor made for this, but then, lefties have hurt him on low fastballs. I know you don’t want to give up on your own game plan based on a handful of innings, but you probably don’t want to be so wedded to a plan that you ignore all of the evidence suggesting it’s not working.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Heredia, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: Miranda
Mike Trout gets the day off for Anaheim…take advantage, M’s.
I talked about Tacoma’s dramatic comeback win in Vegas yesterday, but they’ll go for their 7th win in 8 games tonight behind Sam Gaviglio. Casey Fien cleared waivers and joined the team.
Arkansas’ game against Tulsa was rained out last night, so they’ll try to get in two today. Lindsey Caughel starts game 1, while Andrew Moore takes the mound in the nightcap.
As mentioned yesterday, Pablo Lopez and the Modesto Nuts edged the San Jose Giants 4-3 yesterday afternoon. Today, the Nuts welcome the Lake Elsinore Storm, as Anthony Misiewicz starts for Modesto.
Clinton lost to West Michigan yesterday 3-2, and the two teams are back at it this afternoon with Nick Wells on the hill for the Lumberkings.
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16 Responses to “Game 29, Angels at Mariners – Bullpen Woes Continue”
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We were without power for a while thanks to the left gaming, but they got it restored in time for me to watch this game.
It’s a sign, Mariners! You’re supposed to win tonight!
Oh hey! look! RBI’s! nice job guys, keep it up please.
“The left gaming” … what is that please?
And thanks for whatever “it” is because I was just going to complain about Zunino.
Any catchers in the league that we can get??? Any? Would anyone want Zunino?
Oh,that was supposed to be “lightning”. 🙂
I was kind of hoping they would of given Matt Wieters a shot.
So you don’t live inside the emerald queen casino … good to hear!
Gamel is having a nice game. Starting to feel more comfortable I hope. He will be a great guy to have around if he can keep his K rate down.
Miranda is feeling it … good for him!
I like this version of Valencia alot better.
I take full credit for Valencia’s turn-around. Obviously I shamed him into it.
Well done, Danny. Well done.
Gamel esta en fuego esta noche.
I hope the pen can hold this lead.
The Gamel and Valencia Show tonight.
Woo Hoo!
What a fun win! we definently need more of those.