Game 33, Mariners at Phillies
Ariel Miranda vs. Jerad Eickhoff, 4:05pm
The M’s head east for a quick roadtrip against two struggling teams, the Phillies and then the Blue Jays. I’ll admit to having ignored the Phillies for a few years, and what impressions seeped into my brain were that their rebuild was progressing thanks to an exciting young rotation. That rotation was the product of a nice draft (for Aaron Nola) and then two of those big, franchise-altering trades that rebuilding teams make – in this case, the trades of Cole Hamels to Texas and Ken Giles to Houston. The former brought in today’s starter, Jerad Eickhoff, along with two bigger prospects. The latter brought high-ceiling arm Vince Velasquez and a lottery ticket in Mark Appel. Both Velasquez and Nola looked amazing at times in 2016, but ended the year with so-so overall lines. Nola’s ERA lagged his FIP by well more than a run, while Velasquez’s HR problems kept him from being more than a league average starter (to be clear, both had solid seasons for young starters, but both have the talent to be much, much more than “average”).
This year, however…Nola’s ERA still trails his FIP by well more than a run, and Velasquez’s ongoing issues with the longball have his ERA near 6 and his FIP driving his WAR below zero. The Phillies pitching staff ranks 28th in baseball by WAR, thanks to the league’s highest HR rate, and a middling K:BB ratio. The rebuild continues, but the pitching part of the equation is actually lagging the position players at the moment. That’s surprising, because their position players have largely escaped mainstream attention. 3B Maikel Franco was a huge prospect, it’s true, but his OBP is under .300 at the moment, and his slash line of .217/.292/.374 is NOT what’s driving the Phillies’ offense. Instead, they’re paced by lead-off man Cesar Hernandez and CF Odubel Herrera, two of the unlikelier players to post 4-WAR seasons.
Hernandez, a 2B, came up slowly through the Phillies system as a speed/contact guy. His ISO was generally stuck below .100 through the minors, and that’s where it stayed in his first few years in Philadelphia. A good batting eye and an even better glove allowed him to add more value than you’d expect for a non-premium position defender without pop, but obviously, the ceiling was limited. He wasn’t helped by the fact that the Phillies’ coaching staff last year apparently *demanded* that he hit the ball on the ground more. In fact, he was benched by the Phils last year, with bench coach Larry Bowa (career ISO: .060, years with league average bat: 0) saying he’d be benched all season unless he hit fewer balls in the air. As Dave’s article suggests, he sort of went along, but started pulling the ball much more, bringing his ISO up slightly. This year, with new hitting coach Matt Stairs preaching the value of line drives and fly balls, he’s a new hitter, with 4 HRs already and an ISO of .163. He’s hitting the ball in the air much more (higher launch angle), hitting it harder, and pulling it. If this sounds a lot like Taylor Motter, it should. Like Motter, these changes, while beneficial overall, have taken a bite out of his K:BB ratio, contact, and walk rate. I’m sure he doesn’t much mind, and now that the Phillies don’t mind, he’s on his way to blowing past last year’s 4.4 fWAR season…he’s at 1.5 already.
Odubel Herrera was a rule 5 pick out the Rangers org before the 2015 season, and after an out-of-nowhere 4 WAR campaign that year, he backed it up with another ~4 win season last year. His glove and position drive much of that, but he hit 15 HRs last year, and thanks to a solid average, his SLG% was well into the .400s in both full seasons. His BABIP’s dropped a bit in the early going, so his slash line doesn’t look as nice now, but he’s still a remarkably valuable piece for a rebuilding team to stumble into. His defense still grades out as plus, too. That’s the other way in which the Phils position players are helping the club: the Phillies defense has been one of the best in the league. By DER, they’re great, with the OF in particular turning lots of fly balls into outs. Thus, while the Phils have a lower-than-average wOBA, OBP, wRC+ or whatever offense stat you want to use, they rank 10th in baseball in WAR.
Going back to their rotation for a moment, the Phillies have a high HR rate in part because of their approach. While not quite as extreme as the Tigers and Red Sox, the Phils have targeted the top of the zone more than most teams. Using the old Gameday zones on Statcast, the Phillies’ have the 7th-highest rate of high pitches in baseball. What does that mean for the M’s? Well, the M’s have been much better than average at such pitches, with a wOBA significantly higher than average. It’s *low* pitches that the M’s have struggled with, and as Houston throws more of those than anyone, it kind of makes sense why Houston’s locked down the M’s offense (it also skews these stats, of course).
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Valencia, 1B
6: Heredia, LF
7: Gosewisch, C
8: Dyson, CF
9/SP: Miranda
Before the game, the Mariners and Phillies made a minor trade, with Casey Fien moving over to the Phillies org in exchange for cold, hard, cash money.
Nelson Cruz gets another day off with his tight hamstring; Bob Dutton says he’s unlikely to start tomorrow, but he is available to pinch hit.
Shawn O’Malley underwent shoulder surgery today. He was already on the 60-day DL, but he really, really won’t be able to play for another 2 months at least.
Lots of moves in the minor leagues, and the biggest may be Andrew Moore’s promotion to AAA Tacoma. He’ll start tonight at Cheney Stadium against New Orleans. Someone go and give us all an in-person scouting report. Andrew Moore’s opponent tonight is ex-MLB starter Vance Worley. The R’s blanked the Baby Cakes 2-0 last night behind Ryan Weber, Dean Kiekhefer and Emilio Pagan. Weber’d now tossed 31 1/3 IP in 6 appearances including 5 starts. His ERA is 0.85. He’s walked just 4, and while he’s not a strikeout pitcher at all, his sinker is racking up ground balls at a staggering rate.
Arkansas lost to NW Arkansas in an intra-state clash 3-2 last night. The Travelers (the good Arkansas) bullpen failed them, unfortunately, as Peter Tago gave up 2 runs in the 9th, turning a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 loss. Ian Miller and Chuck Taylor each had 2 hits in that one. They played again today, and yet again the Travs couldn’t figure out NW Arkansas pitching, falling 3-1. Lindsey Caughel was solid for 6 IP, but the bats couldn’t figure out NWArk starter Matt Tenuta, who’s been destroyed by the rest of the Texas League. Oh well.
Clinton lost to Lansing 4-3. Tim Viehoff gave up 4 runs in 4 2/3, and the offense couldn’t get to Lugnuts reliever Tayler Saucedo. Anthony Jimenez and Nick Zammarelli both doubled and singled in the game. These clubs played an early game today, and this was more of a slugfest, with the Lugnuts winning 11-6. Jimenez and Luis Liberato each had 2 hits, but Nick Wells gave up 7 runs in 5 IP, and the Lumberkings rally fell well short.
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11 Responses to “Game 33, Mariners at Phillies”
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I hope nothing is seriously wrong with Cano
Dipoto had the nerve to suggest that everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong.
Doesn’t he known statements like that guarantees a jinx?
How about that Ben Gamel!
Benny ballgame.
Maybe the team should just list everybody as a RF or SS – those positions have been very productive.
Via the Mariners, Robinson Canó left tonight’s game with a quad strain.
Why in the heck did Gamel try to take 3rd on Motter’s GB? That was really stupid.
He gets a pass, given the incredible offensive display he’s shown tonight. But that sucked.
So once Haniger comes back can the Mariners be done with Dyson as a Starter.
Of course Condor leads off the bottom of the 9th..
Excellent win – and a Swelmet for Gamel.
I can’t believe we won that game! makes me so happy! I mean besides those two bad innings by the pitching.
Great win boys! lets keep on rollllllin baby!
Always nice to see the boys hit. And even nicer to see Diaz slam shut a 9th inning. We need more sure things out of the pitching staff!