Game 56, Mariners at Rays (the Anti-Mariners)
Christian Bergman vs. Jake Odorizzi, 7:10pm
It’s our own fault. We tend to apply a label to a team and stick to it, even as personnel and front offices come and go. It was an article of faith among NON-sabermetrically inclined fans that stat nerds would automatically view a Billy Beane trade favorably, and a…I don’t know, Royals (in 2010-2014) trade unfavorably. These criticisms weren’t exactly wrong. I’ll admit I would look at an A’s move that didn’t seem to make any sense (Billy Butler?) and really try to consider alternative angles that maybe I’d missed at first. I wouldn’t linger as long on moves by others. All of this is to say that Tampa’s rapid rise to relevance gave them the patina of a smart organization, and thus not only were most of their moves seen as intriguing or at the very least justifiable, but *everything* they did – every blip in some rate stat, every 20-game rolling average – seemed to connote the evidence of a team-wide approach. And if Tampa was doing something, then maybe others should look into it.
In recent years, the Rays have been one of the most consistent teams in terms of the batted balls their pitchers give up. Year after year, the Rays and Angels would lead the league in fly ball percentage, and rank near the bottom in ground ball percentage. It made sense: the Rays couldn’t afford a do-it-all, traditional, 5-tool OF. They had a CF with one really exceptional tool, and they got pitchers that induced contact that got the most value from it. Since Kevin Kiermaier debuted in 2014, the Rays leapfrogged the Angels as MLB’s true fly-ball pitching staff, and since 2014, they’ve run a good BABIP despite some…less than solid infielders. Again, you can follow the logic here. The Rays have a great OF defense, so they get pitchers like Drew Smyly or tonight’s starter, Jake Odorizzi, who yield mostly flies. That could enable them to punt on IF defense a bit and add the offense that they gave up in the outfield. Kiermaier’s “only” a league average bat? Fine, get Brad Miller and Logan Forsyth in the infield.
Traditionally, the M’s have taken the opposite tack. Jack Zduriencik wanted bulk in his outfield, and he wanted OF who HIT fly balls, not necessarily guys who went around catching them. On the IF, whether by design or not, they’d assembled a largely solid group of defenders with Kyle Seager and Robbie Cano stabilizing things around a revolving door of shortstops (but the M’s always seemed to prioritize SS defense, hence why Brad Miller was hitting dingers in Tampa). The M’s too managed an above-average BABIP over multiple years, but they got there a very, very different way.
So, imagine my surprise when looking at the Rays ahead of this series to find that the Rays are now an essentially average defensive team, and if you were to break that defense into components, it’s actually been the INFIELD that’s carrying them. The team with the worst defensive efficiency on grounders last year now ranks 5th, while it’s the Mariners who struggle on grounders. Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t prevented Tampa’s DER on fly balls from falling below .900, ranking 12th in the league…behind Seattle, of all teams.
There are a lot of things to say about this. First, the M’s improvement since April on fly balls is jaw dropping. I have no idea if it’s luck, or if Ben Gamel’s a better defender than Mitch Haniger (I wouldn’t care much if he was, of course), but I think at this point the scale of it seems to indicate that Jarrod Dyson is just way, way better than Leonys Martin. Second, while the Mariners fly ball percentage isn’t sky high (it’s above average, though), the fact remains that the M’s have had more fly ball *opportunities* than any team except Detroit. The reason is that no pitching staff produces balls in play – of all kinds – than the M’s. This is what happens when your rotation consists of Sam Gaviglio, Christian Bergman, Ryan Whalen, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Heston, etc. The Rays aren’t a strikeout staff either, but they’re much better in terms of the “Control the Zone” measures like K% and K-BB%. So the M’s are giving Dyson and Heredia more opportunities – why are the Rays suddenly moving away from watching Kiermaier run down gappers?
The answer has to do with another big trend that we’ve been watching this year: the drop in fastballs. I mentioned it in April after watching the Astros confound the M’s with a blizzard of curves and sliders, and at that point, the Astros led the league in the percentage of non-fastballs thrown. We’ve obviously got a lot more data at this point, and while the Astros percentage of bendy stuff is still high, they’ve been passed. Now, it’s the Yankees in the lead at over 50% non-fastballs. After a sizable gap, we get to second place, where we find Tampa. Here’s where it’s interesting, though. If we look at the same table, but for 2016, many of the same teams are near the top. The Yankees ranked 2nd last year, and the Angels (3rd this year) were 1st. Where’s Tampa? They ranked 20th. This is a big, big move. They’ve increased their non-FB usage by ten percentage points. In a year. (The M’s dropped from 2016-2017, because somehow they must always move in opposite direction to the Rays).
The upshot of all of these breaking balls and change-ups is that the Rays have induced more contact on breaking balls than any team except the Yankees, and more grounders on non-FBS than ANYONE – by a mile. Colorado’s induced nearly *200 more* grounders on fastballs, but Tampa’s ahead on non-FB grounders by about 150. Add it up, and the Rays have given up much lower production on grounders than just about anyone (although, oddly, they’re a spot behind Colorado). And that’s with a double-play tandem of Tim Beckham and Brad Miller.
The Rays’ HRs-allowed or HR/9 rate has dropped this year, and I’m assuming the shift away from fastballs has something to do with that. Jake Odorizzi clearly got the memo, as – just like his team as a whole – his FB% has dropped by ten percentage points over last year. The problem is that the fastballs that he DOES throw are getting hit much harder. The primary beneficiary of his shift in pitch mix has been his splitter, which is a very good pitch, but which yielded 7 HRs and a .440 SLG%-against last year. This year, throwing it much more, he’s given up just 1 and his SLG%-against is much lower. His SLG%-against on his four-seamer, though, has increased by 100 points. If you’re looking for reasons he’s sporting a career high HR and HR/FB rate, there you go.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Motter, SS
8: Dyson, CF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Bergman (please be GOOD-Bergman, and not overmatched-Bergman tonight)
Damn. Just when the M’s get James Paxton back, Jean Segura heads back to the DL with an ankle injury.
Nick Neidert, Dylan Unsworth and Chase DeJong take the mound in the minors tonight, with Unsworth matching up with Rangers prospect Yohander Mendez again.
Tacoma jumped on Astros prospect Francis Martes, racing out to a 7-1 lead, but they couldn’t hold it in a disappointing 12-9 loss. Leonys Martin homered. Chuck Taylor continues to subject Texas League pitching to abject cruelty, hitting a HR in Midland. Nathan Bannister was sharp for Modesto in a 2-1, late-inning loss, while Ljay Newsome wasn’t in Clinton’s 9-1 loss to Beloit.
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4 Responses to “Game 56, Mariners at Rays (the Anti-Mariners)”
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Rays at Mariners.
bases juiced no one out… cruz n seeger lets do this
…or Valencia n Motter!
So Valencia needs a triple for the cycle. Pick up a few more hits and get him another AB guys.