Game 63, Blue Jays at Mariners
Ariel Miranda vs. Marcus Stroman, 7:10pm
The other day, erstwhile co-blogger Jeff Sullivan was writing about the Brewers’ Jimmy Nelson, and how the under-the-radar hurler was approaching ace status for the surprising Milwaukee club. As usual, the specific meaning of the word “ace” is important, but it’s a perennial question: how many aces ARE there in the league – is every team’s #1 starter an ace by definition (a de jure ace), or are there only ~10-12 de facto aces in the league, irrespective of team? I bring that up because despite the fact that the Jays have been a playoff team recently and a perennial contender, the steady but unspectacular development of Marcus Stroman means that the Jays really don’t have one.
I know, I know: Stroman didn’t need to be the ace – that was supposed to be Aaron Sanchez’s gig. But due to injury and a weird, contact-management approach, I’m not sure he qualifies. Stroman was utterly dominant in college and the minors and, if hadn’t missed significant time due to injury, *could have* filled the bill. But like Sanchez, Stroman’s settled in as a very good, ground-balling starter who doesn’t miss too many bats. To be clear: that’s really good, and extremely valuable to the Jays org, but feels somewhat…underwhelming given Stroman’s stuff and poise. You see him in the WBC or in scattered starts and see an ace – you look at the season and career numbers and see a rich man’s Hisashi Iwakuma. Maybe all of this is splitting hairs, but I’m still shocked he hasn’t ascended to the heights that, say, Chris Archer has. And yes, I recognize that he’s 20th in fWAR this year, but with a very good sinker at 94, a tough slider and a really hard curve at 82… I don’t know, maybe it’s enough to be really good and not great. It still feels like Stroman’s got untapped potential.
Here’s hoping he doesn’t tap into it tonight. As a guy with a sinker/slider repertoire, and with a lower release point (not all of which is due to his small stature), he seems like the kind of guy who’d run huge platoon splits. That’s not what he’s done, though. His wOBA against righties and lefties is exactly even over his career, and he’s been much tougher on lefties this year. The key to this mystery is in his sinker – he’s given up 4 HRs to righties off of it, but NONE against lefties. Throughout his career, he’s given up fewer hits, but HARDER hits on the pitch to same-handed batters. It’s similar with his breaking stuff; for whatever reason, lefties seem to have trouble picking it up, while righties see it comparatively well.
Ariel Miranda has the platoon splits you’d expect, but he’s been far better than I (and, I’m assuming, the Mariners) would’ve expected. He throws up in the zone more than most pitchers – while Stroman ranks 59th out of 425 pitchers this year by the percentage of low pitches thrown, Miranda’s way up at #358. He’s got a great change, but that can’t explain his dominance against lefties, nor his solid performance against righties. He’s been a great contact manager this year, driven largely by his dominance of lefties – lefties put the ball on the ground against him while righties hit a bunch of not-terribly-hard fly balls. If he could figure out his control/command, the M’s would really have something.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Motter, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Ruiz, CF
9: Smith, SS
SP: Miranda
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27 Responses to “Game 63, Blue Jays at Mariners”
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The ole’ sharing time in CF trick! But who’s gonna get the ball back to the pitcher?
SEA-BOSS flashes the leather!!!
Bah, Kendrys Morales.
I want another ace to pair with Paxton for a bad bobble head night.
The questions are: 1.) Who are the potential aces? and, 2.) How do we get one?
Hahaha, nice to see the other team pull a llano like that!
TIE GAME!
Holy Dyson!
Choke on that, Canucks!
Now there’s an autocorrect that mystified me… “llano”?
Was intended to be “klank”.
Hello middle infielders: 2nd base must be guarded.
Why so many BJ fans at the game?
Because the Blue Jays are playing and Seattle isn’t that far from Canada.
There is a lot of BJ blue in the stands. You’re saying 20,000 Canadians came to the game?
Probably closer to 35,000.
Seemed like a very lack luster game with lots of weird mistakes. Hopefully tomorrow goes better.
When I was riding Link light rail on my way home Friday (at roughly 6pm), I was surprised by the number of people I saw who were wearing Blue Jay gear.
Coming down to Seattle for the Toronto series definitely seems to be a thing.
Game 64
Just tuning in… second inning, we’re down 2-0 with the bases loaded for Toronto. What the heck is going on, Paxton?
… Whew! Got Bautista and Morales out. Still down 2-0, but that’s better than 6-0.
Ben Gamel with a triple!
Okay, it was scored a double + E-7.
Man, Motter has really cooled down. He’s almost at the Mendoza line.
Good thing Haniger is back!
Looking at Motter’s month to month splits – he’s basically been the anti-Valencia.
No, waiter, you misunderstood. I asked for a healthy and normal James Paxton, not healthy and abnormal.
Please, have it fixed immediately. I’m starvin’ here.
When they’re talking about a guy who has issues staying healthy, like Paxton, and noting that his velocity is down today… I worry.
Yeah, me too. Many fans have suggested that the key to the postseason if a productive Felix. But I believe a dominating Paxton is far more important.
Gotta agree with you, Steve.
That’s ironic because back in April when Valencia was struggling, many people wanted Motter to his place at first once Segura was activated off the DL the first time.
And I was probably one of them, mrakbaseball!
Sheesh, these guys just can’t get more than one guy at a time going today.
… until right now! Come on guys, two outs in the bottom of the ninth – so what?
Bah.
Decent homestand that could have been much better. It’s bad enough losing a series at Safeco to the Blue Jays but it’s even worse when Mariners fans are outnumbered conservatively 3-1 too.
Why can’t they just beat the damn Blue Jays… Ruined our season last year, might even be ruining it this year too.