Midseason Thoughts + All Star Game 2: This Time, It’s In Tacoma
This has been a bizarre season in the big leagues, with the AL West bunched together behind the league’s true superteam, the Houston Astros. A group of three teams near the top in the AL East means that while you could envision a scenario in which the M’s jump back into the wildcard race, it’s starting to sound pretty out there. The M’s are, frustratingly, 4 games below .500, but despite another year of sky-high expectations and sub-par results, so much has gone *right* for the club. We entered into 2017 thinking it was a make or break year: either they broke their playoff drought, or they were in for a long spell wandering the baseball desert. What we got is something different – the team isn’t threatening to go to the playoffs, but we’re starting to see what an M’s team capable of making the playoffs might look like.
The key to this strange state of affairs has been the two-headed monster of Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger. The trade seemed like a good one even without knowing how good Haniger would be *in 2017*, and the fact that the M’s will have him for years now looks like an absolute coup. But it’s Segura who’s been even better, a decent SS who’s clearly brought most of his 2016 career resurrection with him to Seattle. Obviously, the M’s agreed, as they quickly extended him. Ben Gamel’s development into something that looks like a playable MLB corner OF is, by far, the most stunning thing I’ve seen this year, but for sheer importance to the franchise, that Walker-for-Segura trade is one we’ll look back on and smile about for years and years to come.*
All of that hope-for-the-future stuff is balanced by the realization that the pitching staff is now further from being competitive than when we started the year. Drew Smyly won’t pitch for the M’s. I’m not sure if Hisashi Iwakuma will again. Yovani Gallardo is doing his best in the bullpen, and the rotation absolutely requires continued excellence from Ariel Miranda and Andrew Moore. Edwin Diaz has been a frustrating mess, and while Nick Vincent is doing his best impersonation of Shigetoshi Hasegawa-in-2003, the bullpen needs help, and it’s just not clear where that help’s going to come from.
The M’s are said to be biding their time before the trade deadline, deciding whether to buy or sell, but both options are going to be tough. Dave’s popular Trade Value series over at Fangraphs is running this week, and Kyle Seager – All Star signed to favorable long-term deal – only managed to make the “Honorable Mention” post. Nelson Cruz might fetch a prospect at the deadline, but while teams certainly still value rentals, they’re getting pickier about the kind of rentals they’re willing to splurge on. I’m not sure Cruz fits the bill, especially given that it’s only AL teams that could really use him. Robinson Cano’s contract (which I still like) means the M’s would either have to send a ton of money somewhere or get nothing much in talent in return. James Paxton and Mitch Haniger are the most tradeable players they’ve got, and they can’t trade two hugely important pieces of the core they’re trying to build around.
Likewise, it’s tough to see what they could dangle to upgrade the rotation. Dan Vogelbach’s doing well in the PCL, but his value’s rightly going to be lower after a second small-sample faceplant in MLB. Tyler O’Neill’s made huge strides this last month, but that’s after a very slow April+May. Max Povse got hurt, and Kyle Lewis is still trying to get consistent AB’s after his injury last summer. There are opportunities out there if the M’s wanted to either take on a bunch of salary or trade a guy like Nick Neidert, but going all-in on a very unlikely wild card bid strikes me as something Dipoto and Company won’t do. They can add some bullpen depth and the like and frame it as a win-now move without spending what little high-value MiLB talent they’ve got.
Speaking of MiLB talent, let’s take a quick look at the biggest stories thus far in the M’s affiliated minors and review who’s improved their standing the most. Overall, it’s been something of a disappointing year for the M’s affiliates, at least after last season’s remarkable turnaround that saw every full-season club make the playoffs and the M’s run the best overall MiLB record. This year, the group’s a bit under .500, with a winning percentage of .482. Interestingly, they’ve done a good job of upholding the organizational mantra of controlling the zone, as the pitchers’ K-BB% of 13.86% ranks 3rd in baseball, behind the Yankees and Tigers. The batters have held up their end of the bargain too, with a .444 BB/K ratio, good for 6th-best. The problem is how they’ve gotten there. No group has a lower walk rate than the M’s crew, and that balances out a dearth of pure, bat-missing stuff. The M’s position players have a better-than-average K rate, but they have to: they have below-average power. In all, this feels like an organization doing a decent job with a number of up-the-middle defenders who derive a bunch of value from their glove/speed/etc., but that’s short on impact talent. The team would look a bit different with Kyle Lewis 100% and playing in AA or whatever, of course.
Everett:
Position Player: Joseph Rosa
The biggest story of the year thus far, and as a short-season league, that’s not a lot of time, has been 2B Joseph Rosa. This was supposed to be Brayan Hernandez’s time to shine, and Chris Torres and Evan White arrived not long after the season started. Instead, it’s been the diminutive 20-year old 2B who’s shown impressive pop and a nearly 12% BB rate. He leads the club in HRs, and while the K rate’s over 20, it’s not too worrying given the positives.
Pitcher: JP Sears
Wyatt Mills was the 3rd round pick, a guy who’ll move quickly, and who’s put up great numbers thus far, but people are still struggling to make contact off of JP Sears. There’s the deceptive delivery and the meh fastball velocity and all of that – all points well taken. But it seems pretty relevant that JP Sears is striking out a cool 58% of the batters he’s faced. These are numbers that don’t make sense; that seem made up, or dropped in from some bizarre variant of baseball. He hasn’t pitched much, but this is a guy who struck out 20 in a game this year for the Citadel and may be a huge bargain, even if the upside is more like Nick Vincent or, dare to dream, Chris Devenski.
Clinton:
Position Player: Anthony Jimenez
The 21-year old Venezuelan is on the DL now, but it’s been a breakout season for the OF. While it’s partially BABIP driven, his wRC+ of 137 is far and away the best on the Lumberkings, and his 24 steals rank 2nd in the organization – not bad for a guy who’s played fewer games than most. He’s also tied for the team lead in HRs, and while that’s not saying a whole lot, a power/speed combination in a pitcher’s league at age 21 is nothing to sneeze at.
Pitcher: Robert Dugger
Ljay Newsome had that great run in April, and Brandon Miller’s been the steadiest performer (and the closest thing to a true prospect), but I’m going to give the nod to the just-turned-22 RH SP, Robert Dugger. An 18th round pick last year, Dugger’s given up just 43 hits in 60 IP with 60 Ks to just 14 walks. A college-trained pitcher doing reasonably well in the Midwest League isn’t a shock, but Dugger looks like a different pitcher from the guy with a 2.3 K:BB ratio in college (it’s 4.3 now). Not sure what his future holds, but an 18th round pick needs to make a statement, and that’s what Dugger’s doing. He’s worked his way into the rotation and he’s maintained – or even improved upon – his results.
Modesto:
Position Player: Braden Bishop
UW-product Braden Bishop needed to do one of two things: either significantly increase his ISO or improve his eye and contact skills to the point where power didn’t really matter. Bishop hit .290 last year in the Midwest League, which would normally be something to celebrate. The problem was that he *still* couldn’t post an OPS over .700 because his power was non-existent, and while he had a great eye, pitchers could attack the zone against him. Moving up to the Cal League, Bishop’s improved his walk rate, cut his strikeout rate, AND improved his ISO. That ISO is still awful, especially in the Cal League, but it doesn’t start with a 0 anymore, and it shows he hasn’t sacrificed contact quality while improving his contact quantity. Pair all of this with legitimate CF-caliber defense, and you have yourself an old-school kind of prospect.
Pitcher: Nick Neidert
I’ll be honest: it’s been kind of tough to pick pitchers for most affiliates. Not here. Nick Neidert got pushed to the Cal League at just 20 years old, and he’d have plenty of excuses if he put up a perfectly decent but nothing great line. Instead, he’s dominating the mostly college-trained and very experienced hitters he’s facing, giving up 83 hits in 94 1/3 IP with a 98:14 K:BB ratio. Neidert’s the #1 pitcher in the org for a reason, but this is great to see. Compare Neidert with the other big names in that draft, like the Braves’ Mike Soroka/Kolby Allard or the Tigers Beau Burrows, and Neidert looks pretty good.
Arkansas:
Position Player: Ian Miller
All of that stuff above about Braden Bishop? Yeah, same. Miller has always had plus speed and defense, but it was hard to see how that was enough to make him an actual prospect. He had Bishop’s 2016-in-Clinton in 2014. His spell in the California League didn’t prove as transformative either, and his first tour of duty in AA was his worst statistical season yet. I think Miller likes the Texas League. Like Bishop, he’s now got an ISO juuuust over .100, but with his speed, that’s enough to post a 134 wRC+. A .400 BABIP screams out for regression, but Miller’s stolen 28 bases – most in the system – and only been caught 4 times. He’s not going to run a “normal” BABIP. Given how much of his value is tied up in contact, his K% rising to 17% is a bit scary, as is the fact that he’s already 25, but Miller seemed destined to be org depth or leading an independent league in steals soon, and instead he’s back on the map in the M’s org.
Pitcher: Max Povse
Can I say Tyler Herb? The TL All-Star whom the M’s unceremoniously dumped for ol’ Cash Considerations a week or two ago? No? Ok, fine, we’ll default to Max Povse. This feels like a cop-out because Povse’s been hurt for a chunk of the year and now plies his trade in Tacoma, but the pickings were slim outside of Andrew Moore, who blew through the league quickly, and Thyago Vieira, who throws incredibly hard, but has been maddeningly inconsistent this year. Povse was a solid starter for the Travs, and I hope he still gets the opportunity to start down the road. He worked out of the pen for the Mariners, and they’re keeping him there in Tacoma in preparation for a recall.
Tacoma:
Position Player: Boog Powell
I know, I know, this sounds crazy. Powell’s MLB upside is a 4th OF who can take a walk and not embarrass you in CF. I get that. But the guy was buried on the depth chart, had to start the year on the restricted list after last year’s suspension, and had no shot at a big league job. He’s now in the big leagues. How do you get your prospect shine back? Draw 24 walks to 16 strikeouts in an org that cares passionately about K:BB ratio, that’s how. To be fair, he mixed in a bit of everything, with surprising-for-him pop and some stolen bases, but he is who he is. As a platoon bat, there’s some value there, but he’s in the one org that already employs *three* cost-controlled young OFs who all do a bit more. That said, well done to the still-just-24 year old Powell. Also: as consistent as Dan Vogelbach has been, his OPS is barely over .800 in the PCL as a bat-first 1B. That’s higher than DJ Peterson’s. Tyler O’Neill has come on very strong since the calendar hit June, and should run away with this if we’re doing a year-end list, but his wRC+ is just 96 right now. It’s easy to say that O’Neill’s age gives him a pass, as he’s facing considerably older players now. But O’Neill’s prospect status was really tied up in his trajectory: from swing-and-miss lottery ticket to intriguing power-hitting OF. Last year’s great 152 wRC+ showed he could make adjustments, and I don’t think he needed to repeat that. But he needs to do a bit more than he’s done. (Luckily for all of us, he’s killing the ball right now).
Pitcher: Uhhhh Emilio Pagan?
If the position player thing was difficult to pick, this is even harder. By results, the title goes to Christian Bergman, but while that earned him a shot in Seattle, he didn’t exactly take advantage of it. The other eye-opening starter was Ryan Weber – remember him? After pitching brilliantly for a month in Tacoma, he made the big leagues and promptly blew out his shoulder in his Mariner debut. Andrew Moore was great, but barely stayed a month. Jean Machi’s been decent, but also DFA’d by the M’s already. Nick Hagadone was a good story, but he opted out of his MiLB contract. That leaves Pagan, the live-armed reliever out of tiny Belmont Abbey, who’s given up 19 hits in 31 2/3 AAA innings, with 36 Ks and only 8 walks. He’s just been called up again, so we’ll see if he can build off his last few appearances with the M’s, where he went a combined 8 IP with 1 hit and 1 BB allowed against 9 Ks.
Speaking of Tacoma, tonight’s the AAA All-Star Game, and it’s happening in beautiful Tacoma, Washington. It’s sold out, but it’s streaming on MiLB.tv,** and, best of all, you don’t need a subscription. The International League team headed up by HR-derby champ Bryce Brentz and Rays prospect Willy Adames take on the PCL, led by Amed Rosario of the Mets, Derek Fisher of the Astros, and Dan Vogelbach of the M’s. Kate Preusser, who’s been killing it with Tacoma coverage all year, has a great preview over at LL here. The game starts at 6:05pm.
* The Chris Taylor trade, not so much.
** Click the Milb.tv icon. Or, go old school and listen to Mike Curto call it on 850 am or on MiLB gameday audio.
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Thank you for the interesting read, Marc.
So “Altuve” Rosa seems rather blocked in this org for the foreseeable future… any guesses what the Mariners do with him? Assuming he keeps this up, of course.
Hey Marc, thanks for keeping this site going. Good stuff. I’m looking forward to a game in Everett soon. Can you update to “Modesto” on the right when you get a chance?