M’s Trade Tyler O’Neill to St. Louis for SP Marco Gonzales
The M’s made it pretty clear that they were trying to win now with their trade of prospects for set-up man David Phelps. Thus, it can’t be *too* shocking to see them part with their biggest high-minors trade chip, OF Tyler O’Neill, in return for some pitching help. What *is* shocking is that they’ve turned to ex-Gonzaga Bulldog Marco Gonzales to help their beleaguered rotation. Gonzalez made one start for the Cardinals this year, gave up about a HR per inning, and was unceremoniously optioned back to AAA. He made one start for them a year ago, got battered around, and was then optioned back to AAA. In a move that seemingly eliminates any possibility of claiming that this is a win now move, the M’s will cut out the “one bad big league start” middle-man and send Gonzales straight to Tacoma.
Jerry Dipoto said the club needed to be realistic and creative in their pursuit of a playoff spot in 2017 and the near future. They didn’t have a ton of minor league talent to deal from, and they need help rebuilding pitching depth that’s been hammered by injuries and ineffectiveness. I understand that given the league-wide need for pitching and the M’s mediocre farm system that they wouldn’t be buying name-brand starters, but I thought they would at least bring back an actual big league pitcher. After the Phelps trade, I argued that if they wanted a starter, Phelps might be a decent option, and one they obviously had the talent to afford. I’m not sure what the plan is with Gonzalez, or more accurately, *when* he’s supposed to add value. To be fair to the M’s, Gonzalez has 40+ innings and less than 1 full year of service time, so he’s under club control for a long while. But then, so was Tyler O’Neill. If, as everyone acknowledges, the price in talent rises at the trade deadline would the M’s pick *now* to pick up a long-term project?
Gonzales throws a running four-seam (and, rarely, a sinker) at about 90-91 and pairs it with his best pitch, a change-up, with fairly extreme armside run. Overall, the entire package reminds me a bit of former Mariner Mike Montgomery, back before Montgomery’s trip to the bullpen and velocity increase. Back when he first joined the M’s, Montgomery threw about 91 with a four-seamer that moved a lot like Gonzales’, and featured a change-up with nearly identical movement. Both are lefties of course. Both had been noted high-floor prospects, and then both spent time wandering the baseball wilderness – Montgomery couldn’t solve the high minors and was in danger of being released. Gonzalez had a great initial season with the Cards, and then spent 2015 struggling and dealing with shoulder pain, before missing all of 2016 with TJ surgery. Maybe that’s the reason for his struggles now, and maybe there’s some untapped potential there that the M’s could mine. But if the *Cardinals* couldn’t get maximum value out of a moderately-talented baseball rat, what chance do the M’s have?
Gonzales’ change-up racks up a ton of swinging strikes, but batters *also* put it in play a lot. They swing a lot, and when they make contact, it tends to be hit pretty hard. This is why he doesn’t show the righty-suppressing stats of someone whose change-up misses so many bats; he has better K rates against righties (in majors and minors), but also higher hit rates. His K rates against lefties have suffered because while he’s toyed with a slider and curve, neither are big-league quality quite yet. They may get there eventually, but they’ve been show-me offerings thus far, and his usage rates reflect that. There’s raw material here, but the M’s player development staff have a lot to do, and Gonzales is 25 already.
While O’Neill was the M’s top position player prospect, that doesn’t mean he’s seen as a premium prospect by the league. He battled contact issues, and while they’d gotten better, he’s always going to have swing-and-miss in his game. His power was evident in the Cal League and in his recent hot streak in Tacoma, but it wasn’t 70-80 grade. What the Cardinals are buying is a trajectory, a trend line. O’Neill was a very raw player out of British Columbia who switched positions, lost some time to injury, and then needed to learn to harness his impressive strength. And while his raw OPS or wOBA numbers weren’t amazing (though last year’s was pretty darn good), they showed growth. Combine a propensity to learn and adjust with a young age, and you’ve got someone who might be more interesting than the surface numbers would indicate. As a bat-first corner OF, O’Neill needs to hit a *ton* to add value. The growth from 2015 to 2016, and even the growth from April/May of this year to June/July shows why the M’s – and others – have interest.
He’ll now head to a team that’s had some success with players of this type. I’ve long thought of O’Neill as a pocket-sized Randall Grichuk, and while Grichuk’s struggled this year, the Cards got a surprising amount of production out of a slugger who showed far less minor league production than O’Neill. Tommy Pham struggled with contact in the minors, and it took him about 10 years of seasoning to get a shot, but I could see O’Neill putting up lines like Pham’s 2016 in fairly short order. The question is, can they help him do more, and get up to something like Pham’s 2017 line? O’Neill is not a perfect prospect, and there are still red flags splashed across his Fangraphs page. But the Cardinals got a cost-controlled, pre-arb OF they can take some time to develop, and all it cost them was a pitcher who likely wasn’t in their plans anymore.
Yes, O’Neill’s status as the top of a thin farm system may have worked against him here, but Gonzales ranked 16th in Fangraphs’ list of Cardinals prospects this year, and the Cardinals aren’t challenging the White Sox or Braves for preeminent farm system. I thought the M’s didn’t strike a hard bargain in the Phelps trade, but in comparison, this is probably worse. Put aside the M’s public statements about 2017, the high prices for deadline deals, or Gonzales’ former 1st-round-pick status. What do starters with a solid MiLB track record and very poor MLB numbers go for? Mike Montgomery (1st round pick) cost Erasmo Ramirez, an out-of-options guy the M’s would’ve had to release. Dillon Overton (2nd round pick) was a very good four-seam/change-up guy in the PCL in 2016, and then had a crappy cup of coffee in Oakland before the A’s let him go to the M’s for one Jason Goldstein, senior-sign catcher. Eddie Butler, once a top-100-in-baseball prospect (and a supplemental 1st rounder), was swapped straight up for a minor-league reliever. I’m sure there are examples of a top OF being traded for a project, but even there, you’d expect that project to have a bit more upside than Gonzales, who realistically is a #4 or so if everything works out.
The M’s have made some disastrous win now deals of MiLB outfielders, and while I’m not fond of this, I think it’s a far cry from Shin-Soo Choo-for-Ben Broussard. But this combines my frustration at Dipoto and Company’s ability to extract maximum value from their system with a more generalized confusion about the plan going forward. Rebuilding pitching depth is important in a system where Nick Neidert is still in the Cal League. Getting a post-hype prospect with plenty of club control makes some sense, too, in a vacuum – but it doesn’t seem to fit with the team’s desire to improve the 2017 club.
Many in the M’s twitter/blogosphere note that this is important information about how the league saw and valued O’Neill. O’Neill didn’t really have a place to play in the now-crowded Seattle outfield, so I understand making him available, but if THIS is how the market valued him, the M’s needed to wait and make a deal in the off-season. If the M’s were willing to swap him for down-the-road help, then making the trade *now* seems like very poor strategy. By waiting, the M’s could take more advantage of his second-half surge (assuming it continued) and wouldn’t have to pay a premium for a post-TJ command/control change-up guy, especially if he was never the answer to a particular 2017-specific problem.
The M’s don’t have – and haven’t had – a great farm system since Dipoto took over. He’s made plenty of trades from it, but simply hasn’t gotten a ton of value in return. In the past year, the M’s have dealt a number of top-10 prospects (yes, yes, top 10 in a weak system). Drew Jackson went to LA in the Chase de Jong deal. Luiz Gohara and Alex Jackson went to the Braves for Mallex Smith (swapped with Ryan Yarbrough for Drew Smyly), and Max Povse/Rob Whalen. Injuries have bit them, and Povse’s still a talented youngster, but the M’s have spent an awful lot of chips in order to take flyers on Whalen/de Jong/Overton/Bergman-type arms. The vast gulf between what it’s taken to acquire, say, Overton with what it took to get Gonzeles doesn’t seem to concern them. It concerns me.
Game 97, Yankees at Mariners
King Felix vs. Luis Severino, 7:10pm
A Happy Felix Day to you and yours, and it certainly *feels* celebratory, with the M’s having traded for a pitching upgrade and the M’s kicking off the homestand with one of their most important series of the year. The M’s are now 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the 2nd wildcard, and while neither team has played lights out baseball since May, the M’s have benefited from the Yankees swoon that’s lasted about a month and a half. Even Aaron Judge has cooled off, as the Yanks rookie is putting up his first below-average month of the year in July.
While Judge and company get the attention, their pitching staff’s been the unsung heroes. The starters – with the exception of Michael Pineda, now lost to TJ surgery – wasn’t forecasted to do much. Today’s starter, Luis Severino, was a rare bright spot, but even then, his 4.20 ERA and 4.00 FIP weren’t much to get excited about. He’s already blown his projections out of the water, as the righty’s 3.49 ERA/3.09 FIP (while pitching in the Bronx bandbox that is Yankee Stadium half the time) have earned him 3.2 fWAR. He’s a fairly uncomplicated hurler: he’s got a four-seam fastball that averages 97 (!) and a hard, diving slider at 88. He’s also got a change-up, and for a clear third pitch, it’s not too bad – it’s about 10 MPH slower than his fastball with a bit more drop. He’ll use it to lefties, but when he gets ahead, batters (lefties or righties) will see his devastating slider. As that Tom Verducci article I linked to yesterday details, the Yanks aren’t afraid to tell their pitchers to go to their breaking stuff early and often, and Severino is throwing over 40% sliders to right-handers. That seems like it’d make him vulnerable to lefties, but the slider’s good (not AS good, but good) against them, too. Over his brief MLB career, his platoon splits are nearly equal, though I don’t think they’ll stay that way.
Severino’s strikeout rate ranks 10th in baseball thus far (among starters), and thanks to much-improved command, he ranks even better by K-BB% (7th). This is a challenging assignment for King Felix and the M’s, who need to get some balls in the air off of Severino AND keep Judge and company in the ballpark. For whatever reason, the Yankees are suffering through a power outage at the moment, as they’re slugging .370 in the past 30 days, with 26 HRs – 10 less than the M’s over that span. Part of the reason for that is that they lost another breakout star to injury in June, OF Aaron Hicks. The same Aaron Hicks that was among the league’s worst hitters in 2013-14 was in the midst of an out-of-nowhere great season, slashing .290/.398/.515 until an oblique injury sidelined him. As a result, the Yanks have had to play more of Jacoby Ellsbury. Take advantage, M’s.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Haniger, RF
8: Dyson, CF
9: Zunino, C
SP: El Rey
Welcome back, Mitch Haniger!
Classic PCL game today in Albuquerque as Tacoma escaped New Mexico with a 14-11 win. The game was tied at 7 after 2 IP, as each team had a 6-run half inning in the early going. Dan Vogelbach homered, but Gordon Beckham and Tyler O’Neill each hit 2.
Ljay Newsome, Justin DeFratus, Spencer Herrman and Oliver Jaskie take the mound for M’s affiliates tonight.
M’s Acquire David Phelps, RP – Once and Future Starter?
The rumors began swirling last night and the details got ironed out this morning: the M’s made a move to strengthen their surging club, picking up RH set-up man David Phelps from the Miami Marlins. Phelps, 30 (he’ll turn 31 right around the end of the season), had been a starter for several years with the Yankees before moving to relief full time last year. As a reliever, he’s added 3-4 MPH to his fastball and turned in a great season in 2016 before regressing a bit this year. The return is, even given the M’s weak system, pretty steep for a non-elite non-closing reliever: the M’s will send their preseason #7 prospect (CF Brayan Hernandez) along with SP prospect Brandon Miller, SP Pablo Lopez and RP Lukas Schiraldi. There’s not a low-risk prospect among them, and the M’s have protected their most valuable trade chips, but remember: this package acquired a 30 year old righty set-up guy making $4.6 M this year and under club control for one more season (in which that salary will rise considerably). I understand that prices are high at the deadline, and win-now teams may have to overpay in talent a bit, but fundamentally, this is too much for a reliever with whose rest-of-season projections are fractionally better than Emilio Pagan’s. The M’s could probably use a righty reliever, but with Nick Vincent’s magical season continuing and with Tony Zych contributing, the gains from Phelps would be imperceptible. That’s why this deal makes sense only if they didn’t get Phelps to a set-up man at all.
Phelps has a four-seam fastball with average armside run, a decent sinker with a bit more movement, and two breaking balls: a hard curve that now comes in at around 81 and a very hard cutter at 90-91 that’s essentially his bread and butter pitch. Against lefties, he uses the cutter more than either of his true fastballs, and he’ll throw his curve frequently. He pitches off the four-seamer to righties, but he mixes in the curve and cutter pretty liberally. As a starter with the Yankees he had a change-up as well that worked decently, but he struggled with it for a few years and has all but abandoned it in his new role. Still, we’re talking about a guy with four usable pitches plus a fifth that he put away in part due to results and in part due to the fact that no relief pitcher needs five pitches. The cutter may be his best pitch, but this is not a huge swing and miss pitch – his fastballs miss more bats. Rather, its horizontal movement can create poor contact and fouls, allowing Phelps to get ahead before putting hitters away with fastballs (his four-seam was 91 as a starter, but is now sitting at 95) and his curve. After striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced last year in his first go-round as a full-time reliever, he’s settled in this year at around 25%. That’s better than league average, but barely: relievers – as a whole – have struck out 23.4% of batters this year. Phelps walks more than average as well; his walk rate this year is nearly 11%, right about where it was last year, too. Thus, his K-BB% is more or less league average. The cutter and his newfound velocity have helped him post lower-than-average HR rates, but much more likely is that his park is helping him out: in the past two years, he’s given up 2 HRs in his spacious home park, but 9 on the road. His HR-suppression seems tied to Miami.
He’s got pretty normal platoon splits this year after spending 2016 as a more extreme death-to-righties arm. Overall, this is something of an odd profile for a reliever. So much about him seems to work better, or be more valuable, as a starter. Despite the velo jump, his HR rate and K-BB% numbers look pretty similar in either role. Yes, he had a brilliant 2016, but the M’s didn’t – or shouldn’t have – acquired him assuming that was what he’d be in late 2017. The M’s have Andrew Moore and Sam Gaviglio in their rotation at the moment, and the minors won’t be sending in replacements unless they want to shift Max Povse back to the rotation, or take another look at Christian Bergman. Meanwhile, righties in their bullpen behind Edwin Diaz include Nick Vincent and Tony Zych (both of whose rest-of-season projections are easily better than Phelps’) as well as Yovani Gallardo, Steve Cishek, and Emilio Pagan; Dan Altavilla’s a short drive away as well. The M’s clear need is at SP. The pitcher they acquired seems to fit better in that role. Make it happen, M’s.
So, if they *really* acquired a starter, does that make the return look a bit more balanced? Maybe a bit, but yet again I’m wondering who the M’s were bidding against? This team seems like it’s struggled to value relief pitching in general, from the contracts given to Cishek and Marc Rzepczynski to the trades involving Carson Smith and James Pazos. Many of these have worked out great! But I’d like to feel that the M’s are driving a hard bargain, and not fixating on a particular player and then yielding too much in return. There are legitimate concerns with Brayan Hernandez, the centerpiece of this deal. He’s still only 19 and not tearing up the NWL (which would be a pretty high bar, I realize). But a top 10 prospect, perhaps another on the fringe of the top 10 (Miller), for an over-30 reliever with 1.5 years of control and a 2018 salary of $5-6 million? Yes, he might command a bit more as teams know he was a starter, and presumably could be again. But how *much* more? It’s so difficult to compare across systems and trades, but the D-Backs sent 1 top-10 prospect (Dawel Lugo) and a back-end of the top 20 (Sergio Alcantara) plus some stuff to Detroit for JD Martinez. Is this package similar? Eh, that’s a stretch considering how close Lugo is to the majors, but the D-Backs get one of the best bats on the market, while the M’s get either their new 3rd-4th best set-up man or a shot at a starting pitcher conversion. I like Phelps (as a starter), and like that the M’s didn’t part with Tyler O’Neill or Nick Neidert to potentially improve their rotation. I’d love to feel a bit more comfortable about the M’s ability to get value in trade, though.
Game 96, Mariners at Astros – Paxton’s Situational Splits
James Paxton vs. Charlie Morton, 11:10pm
It’s an early one today for getaway day in a pretty important series. Tied at a game apiece, the M’s could get an important psychological and playoff-odds boost by beating the Astros in Houston, and the M’s are handing the ball to their ace, James Paxton.
It’s been another very good season for Paxton, full of the full spectrum of Paxtonian features we’re so familiar with. He’s remarkably difficult to hit, with a H/9 ratio that would rank in the top 10 in the AL if he qualified (he’d be nearly tied with teammate Ariel Miranda, actually). His easy velocity and deathly curveball allow him to rack up strikeouts at obscene rates, even by the K-saturated 2017 standards – again, if he qualified, his K/9 would rank in the top 5 in the AL. On the down side, he’s already spent some time on the DL, which seems almost inevitable at this point, and he’s also got an ERA far higher than his FIP. That last one’s kind of odd, as we often expect pitchers with tons of velocity and bat-missing stuff to post higher strand rates – it’s a lot easier to get out of a jam when you can just strike out a few batters in a row, after all. Paxton’s BABIP’s a lot more normal this year than last, so it’s not that he’s getting BABIP’d to death. Instead, it looks more like a case of struggles with men on base.
It’s easy to chalk that up to random noise. After all, he had a lower ERA than FIP back in 2015 *and* 2014. Of course, Paxton changed everything between 2015 and 2016, so maybe he’s doing something different now. To check, I looked up some statcast numbers to see if I could see why his wOBA is nearly 100 points higher with men on base than with the bases empty this year, and why he’s shown huge splits in this measure 2 years running. For some context, let’s take a look at the league as a whole. The league’s wOBA-against with no one on this year is .323, and with runners on base, it rises to .331. This rise is despite a *drop* in exit velocity on contact from 87 to 86 MPH (though expected wOBA does rise slightly). This makes some sense, as a 1B holding a runner on can provide more holes for ground balls to reach the outfield. Finally, there’s zero difference in the pitch height that pitchers throw or that batters hit with men on vs. not – the league average pitch height is 2.33 feet regardless.
Paxton looks quite different, though. With no one on, his expected WOBA is a dominant .220, which rises to .300 with men on. That huge wOBA spread isn’t purely luck, then; he’s been somewhat unlucky, but the real story is that he’s giving up much different contact in these different situations. The bulk of THAT comes from a huge 3+ MPH jump in the average exit velocity he’s giving up with men on base. Remember, the league as a whole showed *lower* exit velocities with men on. Moreover, his average pitch height changes, dropping about 0.2 feet with men on base. So he’s just throwing it lower, and that’s his problem? No, not exactly. Overall, he’s at his best when he IS throwing low. His wOBA-against is about 100 points lower when the ball crosses the plate 2 feet high or lower – the bottom half of the zone and below. While he’s still got those weird splits with men on base, he’s *still* limiting damage on low pitches (unlike the league, which is hitting more and more HRs off of low pitches). Oddly, it’s not that batters wait for an elevated fastball, either – they hit better on balls near the top of the zone and above, but it’s nothing dramatic. What *is* dramatic is what happens on pitches right in the heart of the zone. With no one on, Paxton gets away with these pitches (.230 wOBA this year, .310 over 2016+2017 combined). With men on, for some reason, he doesn’t (.525 wOBA this year, .423 combined).
Paxton throws more non-fastballs with men on, as many pitchers do. It’s not extreme by any stretch, but he’ll throw more curves and cutters. Batters aren’t hitting those pitches, however – he’s got a tremendous wOBA-allowed on breaking stuff in all situations. This is strictly a fastball problem. Despite throwing more breaking stuff with men on, batters have put a higher percentage of balls in play off of Paxton’s fastball than they have with no one on…when he throws fewer fastballs. This seems like a situation where batters focus in on a very small part of the zone and look for a specific pitch in that zone. When they see it, they swing like hell at it. So what can Paxton do? Well, he might want to throw more breaking balls in these situations. Tom Verducci has a great article at SI today about the Yankees throwing the fewest fastballs despite having a pitching staff with super high average fastball velocity. I’ve mentioned this philosophy a lot this year, as this is essentially the Astros’ game plan, too. Paxton’s got a great fastball, and I don’t think he should adopt a full-on Astros/Yanks-style pitch mix. Rather, in order to have fewer grooved fastballs in situations where grooved fastballs can hurt him most, he should throw fewer of them, and perhaps use them a bit differently.
All of this is small-sample stuff, which is kind of obvious given Paxton’s injury history. I haven’t proven anything definitively. But I hope the M’s aren’t just banking on some regression and not worrying about these splits. Paxton’s been great, and that’s a huge help to the M’s. He doesn’t have to throw many pitches with men on base thanks to the aforementioned greatness and his success at limiting hits. That there’s still some room between his unbelievable talent and his actual runs-allowed is kind of encouraging. Over the past two seasons, Ariel Miranda, acquired for Wade Miley and never a big prospect, has allowed an RA9 of 4.24 in 165 2/3 IP for the M’s. James Paxton, 98 MPH-throwing, curveball wizard, staff ace, has allowed a 4.10 RA9 in that time period, in 208 1/3 IP. In this day and age, that’s pretty good, but if his RA9 was close to his FIP across 2016-17, he’d have allowed *30* fewer runs. That’s…that’s a lot. Throw out all the unearned runs he’s allowed, and if you pulled his ERA down to where his FIP’s been, he’d have allowed around 20 fewer runs in roughly a full season’s worth of innings. As a marginal playoff hopeful, these marginal improvements matter.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: Paxton
Game 95, Mariners at Astros
Sam Gaviglio vs. Brad Peacock, 5:10pm
Last night’s game was the strangest, most unlikely, most entertaining win of the year for me. My game post went to great lengths extolling the Astros’ remarkable season and their utter dominance, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The M’s were facing their most dominant starter on a per-inning basis, and although he’d struggled recently, Lance McCullers was the reason Fangraphs’ odds game the Astros a stunning 70% chance of winning the game. Even today’s game, with Sam Gaviglio flying in from AAA, only has the Astros as 64-36% favorites. The M’s right-handers gave the M’s an early lead, but when the Astros came back and took the lead late, it felt both final and inevitable. And then, of course, the M’s rallied, fought off a 9th-inning challenge, and then won it in the 10th. Dave’s Fangraphs post about which teams are buyers/sellers noted for a few teams – like the M’s – that the first week or two after the break was pivotal, as the general mass of mediocre teams in the AL starts to separate. In their most important 2 weeks since last September, the M’s have played themselves back into the race. This team is volatile as hell, and, oddly, I find that kind of endearing as opposed to aggravating. Maybe that’s because I thought their season was over a month ago, but there’s something fun about a team capable of the game we saw last night, even if they are ALSO the team that’s capable of losing 3 of 4 at home to a terrible White Sox team, or punting easily winnable games left and right. Consistency is great, it’s admirable, and I tip my hat at the Dodgers of the world. The M’s don’t have that kind of talent, so they need to embrace their lack of consistency. Lose 4 in a row? Annoying, sure, but that just means you better come back and win 6 in a row.
The game did highlight another Astros weakness: their bullpen. To be clear: the Astros bullpen *looks* great. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, a bunch of other guys that strike everyone out (James Hoyt!) – there’s depth, and sheer bat-missing ability here that pretty much no team can match. The problem is that they’ve been horrific in clutch situations, even as their peripherals look great. The Astros’ relievers have a HR/9 of 1.48 with no one on, but it’s 0.85 with men on base. They lead the league in K/9 in all situations, and while their FIP is lower with men on, that’s true of pretty much every team, so their FIP ranking goes up with men on; that is, they rank 7th in baseball with no one on, but 3rd with men on base. Despite low expected wOBA on contact, despite all of those strikeouts, the Astros’ pen has just given up a ton of runs. The more critical the situation, the worse it gets. Thus, you have a team that ranks so highly by K-BB% or any kind of defense-independent metric but ranks in the middle of the pack by win probability added. Chris Devenski was untouchable early in the year, so the Astros built up some positive WPA there, but they’ve been steadily giving it back. They’re now all but tied with the Mariners, the team that dug themselves a massive WPA hole early in the year.
This same sort of thing happened in 2015, when the Astros raced out to an out-of-nowhere, and seemingly insurmountable, divisional lead only to watch a leaky bullpen yield the division to the Texas Rangers. By RE24, so *even accounting for runners on base and situation* the Astros were one of the best, if not THE best bullpen in baseball that year. The problem was that every misstep seemed to come at the exact worst possible time. The Rangers were, famously, sequencing masters that year, as their oddball bullpen put up very average performances, but got a great performance every time they absolutely needed one. This sort of thing is, as you’d expect, pretty volatile and not indicative of real skill. But yet…Kansas City and Texas ended up “beating” their BaseRuns and RE24 numbers, and now this is the Astros’ second time in 3 years of significantly underperforming it. Of course, the Astros’ bullpen WPA was awesome last year, so it’s pretty hard to string some kind of narrative out of this, but it’s funny to see a perfect inverse of the old Baltimore Oriole ‘pen of 2012 who put up a staggering 13.5 Wins above average by WPA despite a closer who didn’t strike anyone out. The Astros strike *everyone* out, and limit hits, but if it’s a tie game late, they’ve given up long HRs or 3 straight seeing-eye singles. This is probably much less funny to Astros fans.
Brad Peacock, like so many Astros, has been a replacement-level, fungible 5th starter, but decided this year to just strike everyone out. Charlie Morton started it last year, so this shouldn’t really be so shocking to me anymore, but here we are. Peacock throws a four-seamer at about 93 from a low 3/4 release point, but his most-used pitch is his slider – a sweeping frisbee-like offering at 81. He has a curve that he saves for lefties, and it looks like a good pitch, but his slider is his primary breaking ball against all batters. Again, the release point and heavy slider usage should create a pitcher with huge platoon splits, and Peacock isn’t like McCullers – he has normal platoon splits, with lefties hitting him a bit better than righties. But I still can’t figure out how the Astros can be so effective against opposite-handed hitters despite approaches/repertoires that should *maximize* platoon split issues, not minimize them. Yes, he’s better against righties, but how is Peacock’s FIP vs. LHBs under 3? How does McCullers disguise his slurve to lefties? How does Dallas Keuchel survive throwing 88 MPH sinkers at line-ups featuring 8 righthanders and win Cy Young awards? It’s tempting to just say “Command” and with Keuchel, you might have a point, but I’m not sure McCullers really has plus command at this point, and I’m 100% sure Brad Peacock doesn’t (he’s walking over 14% of batters faced). Something else is going on.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Ruiz, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: Gaviglio
To make room for Gaviglio, the M’s have optioned OF Boog Powell back to Tacoma. He’s in the line-up for the R’s today in Albuquerque. The R’s comeback against the Isotopes fell just short last night, as Albuquerque prevailed 6-5. Christian Bergman was tagged with his first AAA loss of the year. Tylers Smith and O’Neill homered for Tacoma. Today, they play a doubleheader, with Cody Martin starting game 1, and a bullpen day for the nightcap. Luckily, both games are only 7 IP.
Arkansas demolished the Tulsa Drillers 13-2, handing Tim Shibuya his first AA loss. Dylan Unsworth was great, tossing 6 IP of 1 run ball with 5 Ks. Chuck Taylor homered twice and knocked in 5. It’ll be Anthony Misiewicz on the hill tonight for the Travs.
Modesto beat Inland Empire behind a bend-don’t-break start from Nick Neidert. The M’s top pitching prospect gave up 1 run in 5 IP, but walked and K’d 3, and he also gave up 7 hits. Eric Filia doubled twice for the Nuts, who’ll send Pablo Lopez to the mound today against IE, the Angels’ affiliate.
I mentioned Robert Dugger’s 7 shutout IP yesterday. He’s now made 9 starts after starting the year in the pen, and in those 9 games and 45 2/3 IP, Dugger has given up 34 hits, 6 runs, 9 walks, and 46 Ks. That’s a 1.18 ERA and a K:BB ratio over 5 for about 2 months as a starter.
Eugene beat Everett 5-4 despite Brayan Hernandez’s 3B and 2 RBIs. The Emeralds walked it off against Gonzaga product Wyatt Mills in the bottom of the 9th. JP Sears had 2 Ks in 1 1/3 IP, so he’s now at 22 Ks and 3 walks in 10 2/3 IP. Someone seems ready for the MWL, in my humble opinion.
Kyle Lewis went 2-6 for the Arizona League M’s in a rehab appearance last night.
Game 94, Mariners at Astros
Ariel Miranda vs. Lance McCullers, 5:10pm
The Astros have clubbed the rest of baseball into submission. Jeff had a great article during the break about the historic gaps between the Astros’ offensive production and the rest of the league, pointing out what was at the time an 11 point gap in wRC+ between the Astros (at 129) and the Dodgers. The first series of the second half has seen that gap grow to 18 points. My favorite, though, is the summary stat Fangraphs displays called “Offense” or “Off” which is just the runs above (or below) average combining batting runs and baserunning. Now, baserunning is actually one of the few things the Astros are terrible at, so they’re docked 20-30 runs for it, but they still come out as having produced 116.7 runs more than the average big league team. In second place sit the Washington Nationals…with 53 runs more than average. That is, the Astros have had an offense *twice as productive* as the second-best offense in the major leagues. They are playing a different game (their *team* slugging percentage might hit .500 this series), and in doing so, screwing up the math for everyone else. Only 8 of the 30 teams are at or above league average in “Offense,” and only 9 have a wRC+ greater than 100. The Astros are going to force us to use medians instead of means if this keeps up.
They lead the majors in hits, and then for good measure, lead the majors in isolated slugging. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors (by a lot) after striking out more than any club from 2011-2016. It isn’t just that they’ve changed and improved, it’s that they did it so thoroughly and so quickly. Bringing in some low-K hitters helps, but a lot of it is the improvement of existing players; George Springer, the actual George Springer, now has a lower-than-average K%. Literally Jose Altuve now is a HR-slugging, middle-of-the-order type. Even Yuliesky Gurriel, who looked lost last year and whose slow start occasioned this article, is now a productive (though unspectacular) player. The Astros have drafted well (Correa!) and clearly have an elite player development group working in the minors, but this offensive juggernaut certainly looks like the product of by far the best major league coaching staff. We often think of player development as something that kind of stops once a player reaches the big leagues, but the Astros clearly don’t see it that way.
I talked about this when the M’s video on their coaching philosophy came out back in December of 2015, and how the M’s wanted to be a team that helped players improve in the big leagues. A huge component of that is an org-wide philosophy that can be tailored, but brings some consistency and predictability to minor league players who are often shuffling between 2 teams per season. However they’ve done it, the Astros have clearly implemented something like this. Back in that 2015 post, I noted how the Astros’ system led the affiliated minors in both HRs as well as K/BB ratio. A few years later, so is the parent club. The M’s have said all the right things on this; they’re aware of what they need to do, and seem to be trying to implement it. But days like this, where you look at the AL West standings, or when Jose Altuve’s SLG% is 30 points higher than Nelson Cruz’s (which is still quite good!), you realize just how big the gap is that they’re trying to close. I talked for years about the huge advantage in player development that the Texas Rangers had opened up – a gap that was made wider with their international scouting prowess feeding talented youngsters into that PD system – and how much of a cushion it gave them. For a variety of reasons, that gap isn’t as big as it once was, and the Rangers and M’s are pretty evenly matched right now. But for 3-4-5 years or so, the Rangers had this big, obvious advantage that allowed them to trade for help at the deadline or cover injuries. If the Astros advantage lasts that long, the M’s – and the AL – are in trouble.
Of course, hitting’s only half of the game. Unfortunately, the Astros appear to know this, and have a very good pitching staff as well. Today’s starter Lance McCullers has been, by fWAR, their best starter, especially with Dallas Keuchel on the DL. McCullers pairs plus stuff with two key, identifiable Astros core tenets: first, throw bendy pitches all the time, and second, keep the ball down. The Astros have thrown the highest percentage of low pitches in the AL (they rank 2nd in MLB behind Arizona), and they have the 2nd-lowest average pitch height for balls in play in the AL (behind Oakland). It’s no big surprise then that the Astros have the highest team-wide GB% in the AL, too. But they’re not a pitch-to-contact club: they lead baseball in K/9. They lead the league in whiff rates and allow weaker-than-average exit velocities when batters DO manage to make contact. They’re not perfect, as all of those breaking balls may be a reason why they’ve had some injury issues. McCullers has had shoulder AND elbow problems in his brief MLB career, and may never be a rotation workhorse. Dallas Keuchel says he pitched through shoulder pain all of 2016, and is now on the DL for a neck issue. Collin McHugh’s missed all of 2017 with an elbow injury, though he’s slated to rejoin the rotation imminently. Still, how they got to this point looks kind of similar to what we saw with the batters: huge jumps in ability after arriving in MLB. Dallas Keuchel was AAAA garbage for 230+ innings before becoming Dallas Keuchel, McHugh was waiver-wire fodder, as was Brad Peacock. Sure, McCullers was always a top prospect, and Chris Devenski’s turnaround happened in the minors, but even that just shows the Astros have multiple paths to success. Damn them.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Heredia, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Miranda
Mitch Haniger’s still out with an injured finger, so Heredia starts in LF tonight with Ben Gamel shifting to RF. The M’s have their lefty-heavy line-up in there against the right-handed McCullers, though McCullers actually has reverse platoon splits for his career (and 2017). McCullers’ insane curve/slider hybrid pitch is death on a stick to lefties and righties, but it seems especially tough for left-handers to pick up. Lefties are slugging .207 on the pitch in McCullers’ career, worse than righties. They’re also whiffing on it much more often than righties, and hitting more grounders. All in all, this isn’t the time for a lefty-stacked line-up, though of course Haniger’s injury doesn’t give them much of a choice.
Minor league probables tonight include Dylan Unsworth, Randy Bell, and top prospect Nick Neidert. Robert Dugger of Clinton’s already thrown today, and he led the Lumberkings to a 1-0 win with 7 shutout innings against Bowling Green. Unsworth faces off against spot starter Tim Shibuya of Tulsa. Shibuya’s a well-traveled 27-yr old who’s bounced between AA and AAA a few times in his career. He’s only made one appearance up in the PCL this season, though, but it was a memorable one. On May 5th, Shibuya faced Colorado Springs as a member of the Oklahoma City Dodgers. In 2 2/3 IP, Shibuya yielded 14 hits and *13 runs* before being sent back to AA. In the Texas League, however, he’s given up only 29 hits in 41 2/3 IP, mostly out of the pen, and put up a 1.30 ERA. Baseball is strange.
Game 92: Mariners at White Sox; Bats over (the) Pelfrey
King Felix vs. Mike Pelfrey, 5:10pm
Happy Felix Day! It’s nice to say that with a bit more optimism and joy than in the recent past.
After a solid win to open the second half, the M’s face the soft underbelly of the White Sox rotation today in the person of well-traveled Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey was originally a decent #4-5 who made up for a lack of strikeouts with decent grounder rates, leading to low HRs. That worked for a while, but the approach requires great command, especially since Pelfrey’s never been a Keuchel-level ground ball guy. The low K rate meant that getting out of tough situations was even harder for him, leading to a low strand rate. A move to the AL several years ago brought these flaws to the fore – no pitchers hitting (surprisingly) didn’t affect his K rates, but it ensured that his strand rates would stay low. Then, as HRs crept up league-wide late in 2015, Pelfrey’s one signature skill, avoiding HRs, was rendered moot. You can survive in this league without a ton of strikeouts, but you can’t survive without strikeouts AND without some HR-suppressing mojo.
As a sinker/slider guy, you might expect Pelfrey to run big platoon splits. You’d be right. This is a great match-up for the M’s lefties.
A few weeks ago, I mentioned that while Felix was indeed throwing higher fastballs this year, it hadn’t helped. In particular, his sinker was abysmal. It’s worth noting that his pitch mix in his last start leaned a lot more on his four-seam, and while that pitch isn’t great on its own, it may have helped him turn back the clock with his change-up, that got 8 swinging strikes by itself against the A’s. Now, that’s not to say he’s fixed; he had isolated games with more four-seamers and comparatively few sinkers, but it’s only his second start of the year with a ratio like that. The other was his brilliant start against Texas back on April 14th – a game in which he went 7 1/3 giving up just 1 run on 6 hits and no walks. I have no idea why he’d abandon that approach after a game like that, but he did. Keep doing this, Felix, if only just to see how it goes.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Haniger, RF
8: Dyson, CF
9: Ruiz, C
SP: FELIX!
Rough night in M’s system, as only Clinton and the AZL M’s won. Two affiliates got shut-out. Fresno used several pitchers to rack up 9 consecutive strikeouts against the Rainiers (what’s the opposite of batting around?). The pitching performance of the day goes to Jose Santiago, who struck out 10 in 5 great innings, giving up 1 R on 3 H and 2 BBs, but…Everett was one of the teams that got shut-out, so Santiago took a hard luck loss. Batting line goes to Adam Law, the 27-year old minor league veteran the M’s signed a month or so ago, who went 3-4 with 2 2Bs in a 4-1 loss to Springfield. Tyler Cloyd, Reggie McClain, Steven Ridings, and Justin DeFratus are among the pitching probables tonight in the system.
Game 91, Mariners at Wheeling,Dealing White Sox
James Paxton vs. James Shields, 5:10pm
Wow. This past offseason, the White Sox prized the #1 international prospect, Yoan Moncada, away from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale blockbuster. Not content with ONE #1 international prospect, they spent $26 million to secure the rights to Cuban sensation Luis Robert, and then spent an additional $26 million to MLB as penalty for obliterating their international draft pool limit. What’s a team to do when it craves #1 international prospects and can’t get one at the J2 deadline? Trade again, of course. Yesterday morning, the White Sox traded Jose Quintana to their cross-town rivals, the Cubs. In exchange, they received a package headlined by 2015 #1 international prospect, Eloy Jimenez. They also get hard-throwing SP prospect Dylan Cease, making it surprisingly hard to argue that the White Sox suffered by waiting to deal Quintana and watching him put up his worst season in the majors (not a bad season, by any stretch, but not what you’d want as the last thing in the minds of potential buyers).
It was always a bit surprising that the White Sox launched into a rebuild with a young, cost-controlled core about a year or 18 months after a flurry of win-now moves propelled the club to the fringes of contention. In 2015, the Sox acquired Jeff Samardzija from Oakland and then added closer David Robertson in free agency. The club had a young Adam Eaton in the OF, and a rotation headed by Sale and Quintana, both of whom were signed to what were by then almost insultingly low-paying extensions.* Their abysmal 2013 allowed them the opportunity to draft Carlos Rodon in 2014, who made the majors midway through 2015. The rotation was just about set (despite Shark’s impending free agency), and it was *cheap*. And like a slightly less manic AJ Preller, Rick Hahn decided to undo most of what he’d done, scattering the pieces to the winds. In the process, he’s amassed one of the most talented collections of prospects ever. What he hasn’t yet done is come close to assembling a .500 team in the majors.
This all feels very relevant to the M’s, who are once again threading the needle between going for it and rebuilding, as this great Bob Dutton piece outlines. The M’s, according to GM Jerry Dipoto, have no need for anything so vulgar as a fire sale. Despite a roster that is once again older than most teams in the AL, and essentially all of their rivals, “”We’ve got, I think, 11 players on this team,” [Dipoto] said, “who are in their 20s, who are controllable for five more years and who are all making positive contributions in some way or another.” This is true, and it’s essentially the pithy version of the hopeful-ish post I had yesterday. The problem is that it might not be enough.
There’s something to be said for waiting things out, for avoiding the boom-and-bust cycle of tear-down and rebuild. As great as it is to stockpile prospects, it’s not any sort of guarantee, as the Padres know well. The Royals and their lauded/mocked “best system in a generation” didn’t actually turn into winners until they traded some of their golden boys for today’s Sox starter, James Shields. And Shields himself (*and* the guy he was traded for) was then part of Preller’s seemingly coke-addled win-now splurge in 2015, before moving on in 2016’s sell-everything-that-isn’t-bolted-down rebuild. Dipoto’s not wrong: the M’s are as talented as their wildcard opponents, with the possible exception of the Yankees. They’ve shown they’re capable of hanging around the wildcard hunt, but then, so has literally everyone. That’s what makes the White Sox full-bore tear down so interesting. They were at least as well prepared to make a run at the 2nd wildcard this year as the M’s, but they wanted no part of it. Why not? Why do the Mariners care, and why don’t the Sox?
At this point, it’s harder and harder to argue that the M’s front office has its hands tied by miserly owners. When you commit $250 million to Cano, extend Felix, Seager and now Segura, sign Nelson Cruz, etc., the argument just doesn’t work. On the other hand, I think it’s easier and easier to say that the M’s playoff drought may be a factor – maybe a tacit one, maybe explicit, I don’t know – in at least some of their decision-making processes. This is a team that feels pressure, and a lot of it, to end the streak. That sounds like a good thing, but I wonder about it. The White Sox, with a relatively recent World Series win, can focus on becoming the Next Cubs, something pretty much every team is trying to do. The Sox are on their way, though, as they just picked up a third player ranked in the top 20 in all of baseball. They now have 2 of the top 6-7 position players in their system, along with 3-4 pitching prospects touching 100 MPH. Lucas Giolito, who came in the Adam Eaton trade, has disappointed, but they still have Michael Kopech, Reynaldo Lopez and Nick Burdi to go with Dylan Cease, Giolito, Carson Fulmer and Alec Hansen. This is a ridiculous assemblage of talent. The White Sox have long had one of the worst farm systems in the game. In 2012, their BP top 10 list was literally a ranking of characters in the movie Real Genius to avoid talking about a system headlined by Nestor Molina or Courtney Hawkins. Their preseason 2016 list looks utterly unrecognizable, but recognizably bad (and I’m an M’s fan!). Did the WS win give Hahn the latitude to pull this off? Or is this just a case of baseball following a fad – trading a Jeff Samardzija for prospects and being seen as an all-conquering hero?
So, how’s James Shields faring in the HR era sweeping MLB? About as well as you’d think. After giving up an astonishing 73 dingers over 2015-16, he’s given up 10 in 7 starts and 36 IP thus far in 2017. Thanks to his great change-up, he always had really even platoon splits, but these days lefties are hitting him hard. In fact, both LHB and RHBs are hitting well off of him over the past 2-3 years, so platoon splits just aren’t a big factor in setting the line-ups against him anymore.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Haniger, RF
8: Dyson, CF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Paxton
The PCL won the AAA All-Star Game 6-4 on a big 3R-HR from A’s prospect Renato Nunez.
The Rainiers were back in action yesterday against Fresno, and while Sam Gaviglio was perfect through four, he was significantly less perfect – you might even go so far as to say “bad” – in the next one, giving up 4 runs in an eventual 5-1 loss. Casey Lawrence starts today’s game at beautiful Cheney Stadium.
The Cardinals’ #7 prospect, Sandy Alcantara, has had a rough go-round in AA this year, but he was solid in a 4-1 win over Arkansas last night. He pitched 6 IP with 1 R and 2 H allowed. Control still isn’t there, as he walked 4 to just 3 Ks, but he’s still just 21. Anthony Misiewicz took the loss, but still pitched pretty well in just his 2nd AA outing. Not bad for a guy drafted in the 18th round in 2015. Tonight’s Travelers starter is Lindsey Caughel.
Visalia beat Modesto 6-1 behind a solid start from D-Backs prospect Cody Reed. Braden Bishop and Willie Argo doubled for the Nuts (Argo singled off of rehabbing San Jose starter Madison Bumgarner recently). Reliever Spencer Herrman gets the spot-start tonight for Modesto.
Dayton doubled up Clinton 8-4. The Dragons got a HR from lead-off man Jose Siri, who I’m sure has never heard any jokes about his surname, and racked up 12 hits and 4 walks. The Lumberkings got a dinger from Gareth Morgan, one of his 3 hits on the day. CF Billy Cooke took home a golden sombrero.
Everett’s Andres Torres tossed 6 shutout innings to run his record to 4-0 in the AquaSox 4-1 win in the Tri-Cities. JP Sears allowed batted balls against him, and only had 1 K in his 1 IP, giving up an unearned run. Joe Rose went 0-5 after I wrote him up the other day. Jose Santiago starts today’s game.
I don’t spend a lot of time on the complex leagues, but it’s worth noting that M’s 2nd-round pick Sam Carlson made his pro debut last night with a scoreless inning against the Rangers team. Reports had him sitting 92-93, touching 95. The opposing starter was Rangers’ first-rounder Hans Crouse, another polished prep arm from Southern California. Crouse went 2 scoreless, giving up 3 hits, and sat 95-97 with his fastball.
* I mentioned it whenever the M’s went into the South Side, but the Sox paid more per year for John Danks than Sale and Quintana combined.
Midseason Thoughts + All Star Game 2: This Time, It’s In Tacoma
This has been a bizarre season in the big leagues, with the AL West bunched together behind the league’s true superteam, the Houston Astros. A group of three teams near the top in the AL East means that while you could envision a scenario in which the M’s jump back into the wildcard race, it’s starting to sound pretty out there. The M’s are, frustratingly, 4 games below .500, but despite another year of sky-high expectations and sub-par results, so much has gone *right* for the club. We entered into 2017 thinking it was a make or break year: either they broke their playoff drought, or they were in for a long spell wandering the baseball desert. What we got is something different – the team isn’t threatening to go to the playoffs, but we’re starting to see what an M’s team capable of making the playoffs might look like.
The key to this strange state of affairs has been the two-headed monster of Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger. The trade seemed like a good one even without knowing how good Haniger would be *in 2017*, and the fact that the M’s will have him for years now looks like an absolute coup. But it’s Segura who’s been even better, a decent SS who’s clearly brought most of his 2016 career resurrection with him to Seattle. Obviously, the M’s agreed, as they quickly extended him. Ben Gamel’s development into something that looks like a playable MLB corner OF is, by far, the most stunning thing I’ve seen this year, but for sheer importance to the franchise, that Walker-for-Segura trade is one we’ll look back on and smile about for years and years to come.*
All of that hope-for-the-future stuff is balanced by the realization that the pitching staff is now further from being competitive than when we started the year. Drew Smyly won’t pitch for the M’s. I’m not sure if Hisashi Iwakuma will again. Yovani Gallardo is doing his best in the bullpen, and the rotation absolutely requires continued excellence from Ariel Miranda and Andrew Moore. Edwin Diaz has been a frustrating mess, and while Nick Vincent is doing his best impersonation of Shigetoshi Hasegawa-in-2003, the bullpen needs help, and it’s just not clear where that help’s going to come from.
The M’s are said to be biding their time before the trade deadline, deciding whether to buy or sell, but both options are going to be tough. Dave’s popular Trade Value series over at Fangraphs is running this week, and Kyle Seager – All Star signed to favorable long-term deal – only managed to make the “Honorable Mention” post. Nelson Cruz might fetch a prospect at the deadline, but while teams certainly still value rentals, they’re getting pickier about the kind of rentals they’re willing to splurge on. I’m not sure Cruz fits the bill, especially given that it’s only AL teams that could really use him. Robinson Cano’s contract (which I still like) means the M’s would either have to send a ton of money somewhere or get nothing much in talent in return. James Paxton and Mitch Haniger are the most tradeable players they’ve got, and they can’t trade two hugely important pieces of the core they’re trying to build around.
Likewise, it’s tough to see what they could dangle to upgrade the rotation. Dan Vogelbach’s doing well in the PCL, but his value’s rightly going to be lower after a second small-sample faceplant in MLB. Tyler O’Neill’s made huge strides this last month, but that’s after a very slow April+May. Max Povse got hurt, and Kyle Lewis is still trying to get consistent AB’s after his injury last summer. There are opportunities out there if the M’s wanted to either take on a bunch of salary or trade a guy like Nick Neidert, but going all-in on a very unlikely wild card bid strikes me as something Dipoto and Company won’t do. They can add some bullpen depth and the like and frame it as a win-now move without spending what little high-value MiLB talent they’ve got.
Speaking of MiLB talent, let’s take a quick look at the biggest stories thus far in the M’s affiliated minors and review who’s improved their standing the most. Overall, it’s been something of a disappointing year for the M’s affiliates, at least after last season’s remarkable turnaround that saw every full-season club make the playoffs and the M’s run the best overall MiLB record. This year, the group’s a bit under .500, with a winning percentage of .482. Interestingly, they’ve done a good job of upholding the organizational mantra of controlling the zone, as the pitchers’ K-BB% of 13.86% ranks 3rd in baseball, behind the Yankees and Tigers. The batters have held up their end of the bargain too, with a .444 BB/K ratio, good for 6th-best. The problem is how they’ve gotten there. No group has a lower walk rate than the M’s crew, and that balances out a dearth of pure, bat-missing stuff. The M’s position players have a better-than-average K rate, but they have to: they have below-average power. In all, this feels like an organization doing a decent job with a number of up-the-middle defenders who derive a bunch of value from their glove/speed/etc., but that’s short on impact talent. The team would look a bit different with Kyle Lewis 100% and playing in AA or whatever, of course.
Everett:
Position Player: Joseph Rosa
The biggest story of the year thus far, and as a short-season league, that’s not a lot of time, has been 2B Joseph Rosa. This was supposed to be Brayan Hernandez’s time to shine, and Chris Torres and Evan White arrived not long after the season started. Instead, it’s been the diminutive 20-year old 2B who’s shown impressive pop and a nearly 12% BB rate. He leads the club in HRs, and while the K rate’s over 20, it’s not too worrying given the positives.
Pitcher: JP Sears
Wyatt Mills was the 3rd round pick, a guy who’ll move quickly, and who’s put up great numbers thus far, but people are still struggling to make contact off of JP Sears. There’s the deceptive delivery and the meh fastball velocity and all of that – all points well taken. But it seems pretty relevant that JP Sears is striking out a cool 58% of the batters he’s faced. These are numbers that don’t make sense; that seem made up, or dropped in from some bizarre variant of baseball. He hasn’t pitched much, but this is a guy who struck out 20 in a game this year for the Citadel and may be a huge bargain, even if the upside is more like Nick Vincent or, dare to dream, Chris Devenski.
Clinton:
Position Player: Anthony Jimenez
The 21-year old Venezuelan is on the DL now, but it’s been a breakout season for the OF. While it’s partially BABIP driven, his wRC+ of 137 is far and away the best on the Lumberkings, and his 24 steals rank 2nd in the organization – not bad for a guy who’s played fewer games than most. He’s also tied for the team lead in HRs, and while that’s not saying a whole lot, a power/speed combination in a pitcher’s league at age 21 is nothing to sneeze at.
Pitcher: Robert Dugger
Ljay Newsome had that great run in April, and Brandon Miller’s been the steadiest performer (and the closest thing to a true prospect), but I’m going to give the nod to the just-turned-22 RH SP, Robert Dugger. An 18th round pick last year, Dugger’s given up just 43 hits in 60 IP with 60 Ks to just 14 walks. A college-trained pitcher doing reasonably well in the Midwest League isn’t a shock, but Dugger looks like a different pitcher from the guy with a 2.3 K:BB ratio in college (it’s 4.3 now). Not sure what his future holds, but an 18th round pick needs to make a statement, and that’s what Dugger’s doing. He’s worked his way into the rotation and he’s maintained – or even improved upon – his results.
Modesto:
Position Player: Braden Bishop
UW-product Braden Bishop needed to do one of two things: either significantly increase his ISO or improve his eye and contact skills to the point where power didn’t really matter. Bishop hit .290 last year in the Midwest League, which would normally be something to celebrate. The problem was that he *still* couldn’t post an OPS over .700 because his power was non-existent, and while he had a great eye, pitchers could attack the zone against him. Moving up to the Cal League, Bishop’s improved his walk rate, cut his strikeout rate, AND improved his ISO. That ISO is still awful, especially in the Cal League, but it doesn’t start with a 0 anymore, and it shows he hasn’t sacrificed contact quality while improving his contact quantity. Pair all of this with legitimate CF-caliber defense, and you have yourself an old-school kind of prospect.
Pitcher: Nick Neidert
I’ll be honest: it’s been kind of tough to pick pitchers for most affiliates. Not here. Nick Neidert got pushed to the Cal League at just 20 years old, and he’d have plenty of excuses if he put up a perfectly decent but nothing great line. Instead, he’s dominating the mostly college-trained and very experienced hitters he’s facing, giving up 83 hits in 94 1/3 IP with a 98:14 K:BB ratio. Neidert’s the #1 pitcher in the org for a reason, but this is great to see. Compare Neidert with the other big names in that draft, like the Braves’ Mike Soroka/Kolby Allard or the Tigers Beau Burrows, and Neidert looks pretty good.
Arkansas:
Position Player: Ian Miller
All of that stuff above about Braden Bishop? Yeah, same. Miller has always had plus speed and defense, but it was hard to see how that was enough to make him an actual prospect. He had Bishop’s 2016-in-Clinton in 2014. His spell in the California League didn’t prove as transformative either, and his first tour of duty in AA was his worst statistical season yet. I think Miller likes the Texas League. Like Bishop, he’s now got an ISO juuuust over .100, but with his speed, that’s enough to post a 134 wRC+. A .400 BABIP screams out for regression, but Miller’s stolen 28 bases – most in the system – and only been caught 4 times. He’s not going to run a “normal” BABIP. Given how much of his value is tied up in contact, his K% rising to 17% is a bit scary, as is the fact that he’s already 25, but Miller seemed destined to be org depth or leading an independent league in steals soon, and instead he’s back on the map in the M’s org.
Pitcher: Max Povse
Can I say Tyler Herb? The TL All-Star whom the M’s unceremoniously dumped for ol’ Cash Considerations a week or two ago? No? Ok, fine, we’ll default to Max Povse. This feels like a cop-out because Povse’s been hurt for a chunk of the year and now plies his trade in Tacoma, but the pickings were slim outside of Andrew Moore, who blew through the league quickly, and Thyago Vieira, who throws incredibly hard, but has been maddeningly inconsistent this year. Povse was a solid starter for the Travs, and I hope he still gets the opportunity to start down the road. He worked out of the pen for the Mariners, and they’re keeping him there in Tacoma in preparation for a recall.
Tacoma:
Position Player: Boog Powell
I know, I know, this sounds crazy. Powell’s MLB upside is a 4th OF who can take a walk and not embarrass you in CF. I get that. But the guy was buried on the depth chart, had to start the year on the restricted list after last year’s suspension, and had no shot at a big league job. He’s now in the big leagues. How do you get your prospect shine back? Draw 24 walks to 16 strikeouts in an org that cares passionately about K:BB ratio, that’s how. To be fair, he mixed in a bit of everything, with surprising-for-him pop and some stolen bases, but he is who he is. As a platoon bat, there’s some value there, but he’s in the one org that already employs *three* cost-controlled young OFs who all do a bit more. That said, well done to the still-just-24 year old Powell. Also: as consistent as Dan Vogelbach has been, his OPS is barely over .800 in the PCL as a bat-first 1B. That’s higher than DJ Peterson’s. Tyler O’Neill has come on very strong since the calendar hit June, and should run away with this if we’re doing a year-end list, but his wRC+ is just 96 right now. It’s easy to say that O’Neill’s age gives him a pass, as he’s facing considerably older players now. But O’Neill’s prospect status was really tied up in his trajectory: from swing-and-miss lottery ticket to intriguing power-hitting OF. Last year’s great 152 wRC+ showed he could make adjustments, and I don’t think he needed to repeat that. But he needs to do a bit more than he’s done. (Luckily for all of us, he’s killing the ball right now).
Pitcher: Uhhhh Emilio Pagan?
If the position player thing was difficult to pick, this is even harder. By results, the title goes to Christian Bergman, but while that earned him a shot in Seattle, he didn’t exactly take advantage of it. The other eye-opening starter was Ryan Weber – remember him? After pitching brilliantly for a month in Tacoma, he made the big leagues and promptly blew out his shoulder in his Mariner debut. Andrew Moore was great, but barely stayed a month. Jean Machi’s been decent, but also DFA’d by the M’s already. Nick Hagadone was a good story, but he opted out of his MiLB contract. That leaves Pagan, the live-armed reliever out of tiny Belmont Abbey, who’s given up 19 hits in 31 2/3 AAA innings, with 36 Ks and only 8 walks. He’s just been called up again, so we’ll see if he can build off his last few appearances with the M’s, where he went a combined 8 IP with 1 hit and 1 BB allowed against 9 Ks.
Speaking of Tacoma, tonight’s the AAA All-Star Game, and it’s happening in beautiful Tacoma, Washington. It’s sold out, but it’s streaming on MiLB.tv,** and, best of all, you don’t need a subscription. The International League team headed up by HR-derby champ Bryce Brentz and Rays prospect Willy Adames take on the PCL, led by Amed Rosario of the Mets, Derek Fisher of the Astros, and Dan Vogelbach of the M’s. Kate Preusser, who’s been killing it with Tacoma coverage all year, has a great preview over at LL here. The game starts at 6:05pm.
* The Chris Taylor trade, not so much.
** Click the Milb.tv icon. Or, go old school and listen to Mike Curto call it on 850 am or on MiLB gameday audio.
Game 90, Athletics at Mariners – A Disappointing First Half Comes to a Close
King Felix vs. Daniel Gossett, 1:10pm
Happy Felix Day. With all the talk about how/if to retire or at least downplay the King’s Court, I wonder how happy these days are anymore? When’s the last time you were unambiguously happy watching Felix? I get it; the results clearly aren’t where they need to be, but this blog started as a rallying cry against what Dave/DMZ termed “results-based analysis.” Happy Felix Day used to signify a game that was worth watching, no matter the context. Even games in 2010 were worth watching if Felix was on the hill, and you never quite knew when you’d see something remarkable, something you’d tell your grandkids about. We’re not seeing many of those games anymore, a fact which changes the context of this familiar phrase. Happy Felix Day now signifies a way to say thanks, a way to be loyal to the most loyal athlete in Seattle sports history. Is that counterproductive? I don’t think so, not unless you want to argue that Christian Bergman needs to bump Felix from the rotation, which I think is a step too far even for the most ardent “The King is Dead” partisans. So thanks, Felix. Let’s get this figured out. And Happy Felix Day.
The M’s close out the first half facing off against A’s 2014 2nd-round pick Daniel Gossett. Gossett’s best comp, to me, is the Mariners’ 2015 2nd-round pick, Andrew Moore. Gossett throws a straight, rising four-seam fastball at about 91-92, and backs it up with a change at 82, a slider at 84, and a curveball at 78-79. After a so-so beginning to his pro career, he came on in 2016, rising through three levels and striking out a batter an inning, while limiting walks. In the majors, he’s not striking out too many, but he’s all but eliminated walks. His problem is that he’s also given up 7 dingers in his first 26 IP. After last night’s game, Andrew Moore’s walk rate of 2.4% is essentially tied with Gossett’s 2.6% mark, and Moore’s K rate of 12.2% is just percentage points lower than Gossett’s nearly 14%. Their big problem, of course, is the longball. Moore’s HR rate now stands at 6.09%…over 6% of the batters he’s faced have homered. Gossett’s mark is 6.03%.
I’d love to figure out exactly what it is that makes a player capable of generating swings and misses at one level and not at another (or at least, far fewer). One hypothesis is the popular-these-days spin rate. Andrew Moore’s fastball spins a tiny bit less than league average, which means he gets a lot of efficiency out of that spin: it has more vertical movement than average despite ~ average total spin. His problem is that his breaking stuff has decidedly below average spin. This is partly to blame for his curveball’s astonishing lack of movement. This isn’t to say the pitch can’t be effective, but it may be a reason why it’s not a swing-and-miss pitch. But why would it work in AAA, then? Why did Moore and Gossett strike out so many at lower levels? If lower-level hitters are more prone to hunt specific pitches, it may not matter that a breaking ball doesn’t have killer movement. A slightly worse hitter figures to be worse at reacting to a different pitch type. That’s the hypothesis anyway; I’m aware that the M’s had another guy with killer stuff who came up and couldn’t put MLB hitters away, *despite* elite spin on his breaking ball. That was Brandon Maurer’s problem, wherein minor league lefties couldn’t figure him out, but big league lefties destroyed him (as a starter). Still, while I don’t think spin is The Answer, it may be a part of it.
Gossett gets a lot more grounders than Moore, in part because he’s got a sinker he’ll deploy occasionally, and in part because of what parts of the zone he targets. Moore’s a pretty hard-core fly-ball pitcher right now, with a GB% under 30%. That leads me to another comp that, in hindsight, is going to sound kind of insulting. I don’t mean it to be; I’m not going for hot takes here. But doesn’t this start remind you a bit of Blake Beavan’s 2011? Beavan didn’t have elite velo, and unlike Moore/Gossett, he hadn’t struck out a ton of batters in the minors. He got fly balls and he didn’t walk anyone, that was his deal. He had a rising 4-seamer, though it wasn’t as straight and back-spinning as Moore’s, but he was astonishingly accurate with it for a while. He started his big league career with 6-straight quality starts covering 41 1/3 IP, and despite just 17 Ks, he walked only 6. He had some HR issues, but it didn’t get *bad* until the next start, his first of two consecutive games with 3 HRs-allowed. Despite a K rate of only 10% – 56% of the league average – he was a decent-ish pitcher. He wasn’t able to adapt, meaning the HRs stayed around while the low-BABIP didn’t. Moore’s K% right now is…56% of the league average. He’s weathered a HR surge, but he’s still tossing quality starts. That’s great! I just hope he’s able to avoid Beavan’s fate (Beavan’s somehow only 29, and pitching in the Mets system now after a great stint in the Mexican league). Moore’s minor league record shows he’s got more bat-missing ability, but especially in this day and age, HRs are even more of a danger for a fly-ball pitcher.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Haniger, RF
8: Dyson, CF
9: Ruiz, C
SP: El Rey