Game 25, Mariners at Indians
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Corey Kluber, 4:10pm
On paper, we have ourselves a bit of a mismatch here, and Fangraphs’ odds gives the Indians a 70% chance to win today’s game. Corey Kluber’s K rate is down slightly from last year’s memorably great year, but he’s been pretty much the same guy: brilliant control, a slurve-of-death breaking ball that no one can hit, and excellent durability. There’s a reason he’s compared to a robot, after all. This year, he’s given up 4 HRs already, but thanks to an improved (!) strand rate, he’s again the ace of one of the best staffs in baseball.
In many ways, Kluber embodies the way the game and its best teams have developed. His K rate moved sharply higher since 2012, and he’s given up steadily fewer base hits. His BABIP in his first half-year with Cleveland was .342; it’s declined 6 straight years, and now sits at just over .200. That’s meant that one of the only ways to score on him is to hit a home run,* which is kind of like the game of baseball writ large in 2018. Finally, there’s his unassuming backstory – a fair-to-middling starter in the San Diego system, and then a live arm with serious control problems in the Cleveland system. Corey Kluber looked for all the world like a AAA pitcher, and then, suddenly, he was the Klubot, sentient robot and destroyer of line-ups. I’ve written a lot about this, but while there’ve always been overlooked players who come out of nowhere and succeed, my sense is that many were Mike Piazza types, guys who never got much of a look from scouts, but produced at every step along the way. What seems new, or maybe the scale of it is new, is that teams are succeeding in radically transforming what had once been thought to be a player’s innate ability level. They’re not maximizing ability, they’re fundamentally changing it. Jose Altuve’s perhaps the best example for hitters, but I kind of think Kluber is that kind of where-did-this-come-from case for pitchers.
The M’s have had some issues with the players that’ve successfully navigated the route from DL to rehab to the active roster. Ben Gamel’s season hasn’t quite gotten on track, and Nelson Cruz was slumping a bit after his DL stint. Erasmo Ramirez is another guy who looked a little…rusty? Off?… in his first start back. That needs to change, and hopefully tonight’s the beginning of a run of quality starts. Clearly, the M’s bullpen can use it – they faltered in yesterday’s game before being rescued by Kyle Seager and then their own closer, Edwin Diaz, who’s been untouchable. But the set-up guys have been hot and cold, which, I suppose, is sort of the nature of the beast. Dan Altavilla always seems like a slight adjustment from making the leap, and it seems like Nick Vincent may be all out of magic pixie dust, but at least Juan Nicasio is looking like an asset.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Healy, 1B
SP: Erasmoooo
I think there are a few sabermetric ideas that are both true and that took hold in the game that’ve had deleterious side effects. An example is the importance of the defensive spectrum, and that a SS who hits 25 HRs is perhaps more valuable than a 1B who hits 28. We all get this now, and thus it’s rare that baseball writers will ignore a SS having an amazing year in order to hand the MVP to whoever hit the most HRs/had the most RBIs. The offensive floor for 1B is, and should be, higher than that for SS or CFs or Cs. We all get that, but it seems like baseball’s now swung so far the other way, and has decided there’s no such thing as a first base prospect. The best example of this was Paul Goldschmidt, who destroyed the minors all the way up the chain, and had talent evaluators just sort of shrug their shoulders. Cody Bellinger was a top 100 prospect, but more towards the back end of it, and *instantly* became an offensive force as soon as he made contact with big league pitching.
I say all of this not, sadly, because the M’s have an unfairly overlooked 1B prospect, but because the acquisition of Ryon Healy was so atypical. Here was a team that saw an underrated player in precisely the sort of guy who’d been OVERrated a generation before: a low OBP slugging 1B. Had the pendulum again swung too far? Is he more valuable than his surface numbers might suggest? I’m…I’m betting not, but even if the FO thinks there’s something there, Servais clearly doesn’t, as he’s had him batting 9th for a few games now. Emilio Pagan is not lighting it up, and it’s ultimately a minor deal, but it’s one I’m still quite confused about. I’d love to understand it better, and I’d love for Healy to demonstrate some previously hidden level of plate discipline and consistency.
Starters in the minors tonight include Casey Lawrence for Tacoma, Nathan Bannister for Arkansas, Ljay Newsome in Modesto, and Raymond Kerr for Clinton. The big story of last night in the M’s system was the debut of Jayson Werth, who doubled in 4 ABs for Tacoma in their 4-3 loss to Fresno.
* – Corey Kluber has allowed 8 runs on the year, and given up 4 HRs, so half of all of the runs he’s allowed have come from HRs (and technically, he’s given up 2 2-R HRs, so it’s more like 6 of the 8), which seems comically high. But hey, it’s 2018, and sample sizes are still small, so you can see this sort of thing around the league. Jakob Junis has given up 8 dingers on the year, most in MLB, but only allowed 12 total runs. Justin Verlander’s given up 4 HRs and only 7 total runs. But most extreme is the A’s Sean Manaea, who’s given up just 5 total runs on the year…and 4 HRs.
Comments
10 Responses to “Game 25, Mariners at Indians”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Ben Gamel’s season hasn’t gotten on track but he’s been pretty bad for over half a season now.
As if Kluber needs a lower ERA….
Erasmo needs to go. I can think of a few reasons, but 6 should be obvious tonight.
Dee Gordon’s not a center fielder but I guess the Mariners are still committed to this because I haven’t heard or read otherwise.
Erasmo at least *has* pitched well at times in the majors. Beyond the glass cannons of Paxton/Felix/Leake there is a ton of space on the roster so i’m not ready to give him the heave-ho just yet… Maybe he just misses the beach.
I love how Zunino has once again eclipsed .800 OPS while still striking out roughly 3 times per at bat. He’s both the argument for and against advanced metrics. Our own little unicorn in the wasteland.
I suspect what the FO saw in Ryon Healy was a player who provided enough offense and, as a first baseman, plus defense that was being undervalued. If the offense doesn’t bounce back to what it was two years ago, he’s not such an asset, but I th8nk defense is a big part of the bet on him.
Healy wasn’t exactly the model for controlling the zone in a full season with Oakland last year, so I didn’t get it either. I suppose the bar for a bottom-order hitter isn’t high, but com’mon…
Sunday, April 29
The Mariners’ offense seems to be firing on all cylinders! And of course Healy has three home runs in these last two games…
Middle of the 8th, it’s 9-4 Mariners.
The Mariners end April 16-11. I think that’s better than anyone could have predicted.
The Mariners have had some sequencing luck – they’ve actually given up a couple more runs than they’ve scored. But the wins are in the book, and it’s not like anyone other than Houston has been performing significantly better than them (in the AL West).
The AL East, though, is looking like a powerhouse right now. It’ll be interesting to see if an AL West team can grab a wild card spot away from them. It’s early days, fortunately.