On Expectations
The M’s enter May riding high, 2nd in the AL West and neck and neck with the Yankees and Angels. Especially given their injury woes centered around opening day, I’m not sure that April could’ve gone much better. Not only have the M’s fared better than expected, particularly against Cleveland, but a few of the M’s rivals have face-planted in the early going. Minnesota apparently read my “Upside” post and have watched as Lance Lynn has been absolutely awful, sunk by a blizzard of dingers. And then there’s the fact that the M’s themselves have walked the talk that their own front office (and essentially nobody else) put out.
Mitch Haniger has been one of the game’s best hitters in April, and he’s changing one of the team’s key weaknesses from last year. In 2017, the M’s – led by Nelson Cruz, Robbie Cano and others – hit fastballs pretty well, but struggled a bit against breaking stuff and sliders in particular. In itself, that’s not all that surprising. Sliders are typically thrown when the pitcher has the platoon advantage, and often when he’s got an advantage in the count. But it was still an issue: guys like Ben Gamel raked when pitchers threw them a bunch of FBs, but sunk when pitchers adjusted and gave them breaking balls. Gamel was the worst offender, but he wasn’t alone: Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Robbie Cano and (especially) Danny Valencia all exhibited this trait to one degree or another. Haniger didn’t, and this year, he’s been even better against sliders/curves. What’s critical is that he’s no longer alone. Cano’s change in approach has coincided with improved performance on sliders; my guess is that his increased patience means that he’s simply swinging less at sliders and breaking balls that move out of the zone – his O-swing rate has dropped and his overall swing rate is down by about 9 percentage points. This has pushed his walk rate up sharply, and helped balance things a bit from bringing in free-swingers like Ryon Healy and Dee Gordon.
This is all well and good, but, as is my nature, I’m still a bit worried. The M’s seem to be better than expected, but then, so do the Angels, Yankees and tonight’s opponent, the A’s. It sucks that just as the M’s address some nagging weaknesses, the AL West is suddenly a much more difficult environment. The M’s offense has been good, but the A’s are showing that last year’s debuts from guys like Matt Chapman and Matt Olson weren’t flukes. Sure, their pitching staff is kind of a mess behind Sean Manaea, but damn it, why did Sean Manaea have to pick *this* year to break out?
The nice thing about this start, though, is that I don’t have the kind of dread regarding their rivals. The A’s are a low-key kind of terrifying, but I certainly don’t think they’re better than the M’s…only that I can envision a few scenarios in which they beat out the M’s for a wild card. Same with the Blue Jays, who’ve overachieved, and perhaps even the Yankees, possessors of one of the most fearsome line-ups in the game. They match up really, really well with the M’s, and I think they’re better on paper, but I can easily see how the M’s could get past them. This isn’t even bringing up a team like the Twins, who’re now so far behind that they’d need to play out of their minds in the remaining months. Yes, I know they did so last year, but prior results are not a guarantee of future returns. I’m not saying that a one-month record papers over all of the problems the M’s had and still clearly have. They still give up more HRs than they hit *despite employing Mitch Haniger* and their bullpen’s been so-so despite a dream start from Edwin Diaz. That’s all still relevant, but with the offense playing at this level, those flaws aren’t exactly fatal.
The M’s haven’t won anything yet, but they exceeded expectations in April, and showed that there’s enough upside potential to stay relevant throughout the summer. Whether they actually do so is going to depend on how they address some of their remaining holes, from the back of the rotation to the 6th-7th innings in relief. In a system largely devoid of impact talent, those are holes the M’s are shockingly well positioned to address internally. We’ll have to see what happens at 1B, but a Ryon Healy breakout would be a pretty nice bonus.
So, with all of that as prelude, let me wish you and yours a very happy Felix Day. The M’s welcome the wrecking crew that is the A’s offense, but also look forward to dealing with the A’s rotation. Andrew Triggs is still limiting HRs thanks to a great GB%, but he’s still not as effective as he could (should?) be given a persistently bad strand rate. Triggs throws a sinker, and then a slider and curve. It’s odd that his two big secondary pitches are similar, but they allow him to modify the horizontal movement a bit, given his low 3/4, nearly sidearm, mechanics. That curve’s been especially hard on lefties, and help counter what you’d expect would be devilishly high platoon splits. To be fair, his slider’s effective against them too, so he’s clearly got some deception in his delivery.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Healy, 1B
SP: Felix.
From Mike Curto comes the odd story of the end of the Arkansas Travelers’ game last night in Springfield. The Travs were down 8-4 in the 9th, but had the bases loaded with nobody outs when Chuck Taylor hit a low line drive to second baseman Luke Dykstra. It wasn’t exactly clear whether he caught the ball on the fly or played it on a hop, but apparently, the 1B umpire signaled that he’d made the catch. Dyskstra flipped it to SS, who then fired to 1B for what they thought was a 4-6-3 DP, but the Travs runners all went back to their bags, as they thought it’d been ruled a catch. In all of the confusion, the runner on 3rd, Joe DeCarlo, ran home. The umpires got together and ruled that it was a 4-6-3 double play, but that DeCarlo’s run counted, as he’d essentially tagged up and scored (on a LD on the IF). The game resumed, but the pitcher threw to 3B, arguing that DeCarlo had left early. That appeal was upheld, meaning that the game technically ended on a triple play. The Travs now head to Tulsa to face the Drillers, though the same umpiring crew will work the game. Travs manager Daren Brown got tossed last night after everything went down, and as Curto notes, might try to get a word in as he turns in his line-up card tonight. Johendi Jiminian starts for Arkansas.
Tacoma lost 5-3 after a somewhat encouraging start from the scuffling Max Povse. The tall righty went 6 2/3, but gave up 2 HRs that proved decisive. Tonight, Christian Bergman takes the mound opposite longtime prospect Jeff Hoffman, who’s still trying to put it all together after missing his draft year with TJ surgery a few years ago.
Modesto had *almost* as interesting an ending to their game last night as Arkansas. Up 8-3 entering the bottom of the 9th, Rancho Cucamonga loaded the bases with one out, then got a run on a fielder’s choice. So, just as with the Travs game, it was an 8-4 score with the bases juiced. The Nuts went to their bullpen and brought in Gonzaga product Wyatt Mills, who’s been great this year. Batter Omar Estevez lined the ball into the RF gap, and Nick Zamarelli couldn’t make the play. 3 runs scored, and Omar steamed around 3rd trying for a 2-out-in-the-9th-game-tying-inside-the-park-grand-slam. He quickly realized that was a fool’s errand, tried to go back to 3rd, but was caught by the catcher, who threw to 3B to end the game and preserve an 8-7 Nuts win. Randy Bell takes the hill tonight.
Clinton was off yesterday, but they kick off a series with Bowling Green tonight behind lefty Nick Wells, who’s opposed by Dean Strotman, a 4th round pick last year by the Rays who laid waste to the NY-Penn league, but is finding the MWL a tad trickier this season.
The not so secret rumor is this homestand will be Ichiro’s last. Thanks for everything.
So, LeBlanc will get Ramirez’s start.
Wonderful.
Argh. My video feed keeps crapping out.