James Paxton’s Continuing Evolution
Yesterday, the baseballing internets focused on a Twitter exchange between Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer and Houston’s Lance McCullers and many, many fans, coaches, etc. The argument Bauer made is summarized in this article by Eno Sarris in the Athletic ($). The TL/DNR summary is that pine tar or other substances not only increase grip, but allow a pitcher to dramatically increase their spin rate, making them more effective. A team could teach them this technically-forbidden but undeniably useful skill and improve pitchers they acquire. Not everyone on the Astros has improved his spin rate, and McCullers’ spin rate remains low. The unspoken target of this accusation was Gerrit Cole, the former Pirate who’s presently dismantling the AL with his new, high-spin fastball.
So pitchers are jawing, and accusations of cheating and jealousy are flying around. This is clearly not simply a Houston issue, as Jeff Sullivan tweeted – the Brewers have had a larger year over year increase. There’s a wide spectrum of possible causes, too, from pine tar (not permitted) to sun screen (permitted) to some training hack. As a blogger, I’m not in a good position to figure out what could be causing it. Doctoring the ball can make it do funny things, a fact I learned very early in my baseball education, watching the M’s Gaylord Perry. I’m not going to talk about that today. I just want to talk about this:
| Pitcher | V. 2016 | Spin 2016 | V. 2018 | Spin 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole | 95.9 | 2171 | 96 | 2,325 |
| Paxton | 97.5 | 2133 | 95.3 | 2,356 |
The v. 2016 is the pitcher’s four-seam fastball velocity in 2016; V.-2018 is thus their FB velocity in 2018.
James Paxton’s evolution in spin rate has been more gradual, but the picture here is striking. Both of these pitchers were super high velocity pitchers in 2016 despite lower-than-average spin rates. That helped them both post average or better ground ball rates, and but it may have reduced their bat-missing capability, particularly in Cole’s case. But by this year, both are now well above the league average spin rate of 2,264 RPM.
And what a difference it’s made:
| Pitcher | K% – 2016 | BB% – 2016 | GB% -2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole | 19.4 | 7.1 | 45.6 |
| Paxton | 22.9 | 4.7 | 48.1 |
| Pitcher | K% – 2018 | BB% – 2018 | GB% -2018 |
| Cole | 39.4 | 5.2 | 31.7 |
| Paxton | 31.2 | 10.6 | 31.6 |
Cole’s K% has *doubled* since 2016, and he’s done that while reducing his walk rate. The only trade-off, if you can even call it that, is a reduction in ground ball rate; he’s now an extreme fly ball pitcher. The results for Paxton are somewhat less dramatic, except for the GB% drop. His K% has grown, too, and it’s now over 30%. But his walk rate’s spiking, and all of those fly balls can hurt, as his 5 HRs-allowed show. Paxton’s change in spin rate has been even more extreme than Cole’s – it just doesn’t show up on year-over-year lists because he had an intermediate step in 2017. It’s pushed his FB whiff rate up, while simultaneously making the pitch an extreme fly ball pitch. Meanwhile, Paxton’s curveball isn’t getting the results it once did. He’s struggling to command it, as batters are laying off, and doing more damage when they swing. Has ITS spin rate improved too? No – it’s actually dropped a tiny bit, but it’s essentially unchanged. (Cole’s is up slightly, while Paxton’s dropped).
The point here is that spin rate by itself is not some miracle cure. Even if the Astros have developed easy-to-hide grippy goop and instructed their pitchers how to apply it, it wouldn’t fundamentally change them *by itself*. Spin rate can change movement, and pitchers have always monkeyed around with pitch movement – a different grip on a slider making it slower and sweepier, which is too a baseball word. A sinker grip to take away spin and induce drop. All of those changes can be either beneficial or not; more movement on a slider is not automatically “better.” Or rather, even if it’s better in a hypothetical in which every other variable stays the same, it’s damned difficult to keep every other variable the same when dealing with human beings. Gerrit Cole is doing a number of things differently in Houston, and a high spin rate is one of them. It’s working really well. James Paxton is doing a number of things differently in Seattle, and it’s working…uh…the results are different. Paxton’s striking out more than he ever has, but he’s giving up more fly balls and thus HRs AND walking more.
Paxton’s been effective this year, despite the ERA – he just hasn’t gone nova the way Cole has. I wonder if coaching needs to adapt as these changes in spin rate/motion/whatever unfold. Like, how are they *using* their new, spinnier, fastballs? Gerrit Cole’s throwing it much higher now, as you might expect. Paxton’s throwing his a bit higher, too, though the average height at which it crosses the plate is lower than the midpoint. Cole’s used to be right at it, and is now a few inches higher:
| Pitcher | 2016 V Loc | 2018 V Loc |
|---|---|---|
| Cole | 0 | 0.21 |
| Paxton | -0.23 | -0.11 |
Paxton’s slower evolution, with spin increasing (even when accounting for velocity) over the course of two years, is fascinating. It’s happened *only* on his fastball, which I would argue makes pine tar a bit less likely. It may have been the result of a mechanical change, which would be really interesting. It’s done what it’s supposed to, in a way. But I feel like Paxton’s not quite done incorporating the changes into his overall approach. If and when he does, look out league.
His opponent in tonight’s game is veteran lefty Brett Anderson, the oft-injured hurler who came up with the A’s and then moved to various clubs, from Rockies to Dodgers to Cubs. He’s topped 180 innings once, and has seen time in the bullpen in an effort to keep him healthy (it didn’t work). The A’s re-signed him this year, and he’s been lights out in 4 starts for Nashville. When last we saw him, he mixed 5 pitches – a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, a curve, and a change. He’s always been an elite ground ball pitcher, which makes up for more pedestrian pure stuff. A lefty who can command a bunch of pitches is a solid opponent, but then, the M’s have actually hit slightly better against lefties this year.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, RF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Zunino, C
8: Healy, 1B
9: Ichiro, LF
SP: Paxton
Casey Lawrence would’ve taken the mound for Tacoma tonight against Albuquerque, but he’s been recalled along with Guillermo Heredia. Dan Altavilla and Erasmo Ramirez have both been placed on the disabled list for what I’m 100% positive are real injuries and not just an attempt to bring in other players for a short while.
It was getaway day for much of the minors, so the affiliates have all played, except for Tacoma. Tommy Romero had his first tough outing, going only 2 IP in Clinton’s 10-5 loss to Bowling Green. Modesto banged out 15 hits in an 11-4 win over Rancho Cucamonga, with Ljay Newsome getting the win. Arkansas beat Tulsa 5-3 behind Nathan Bannister. Roenis Elias starts for Tacoma tonight.
Yesterday’s games featured a bunch of low-scoring nail-biters. Tacoma lost 3-1, and were nearly no-hit by Jeff Hoffman and some Albuquerque relievers – Ian Miller broke it up in the 9th. Modesto and Clinton both lost 2-1, with Clinton’s loss coming in the 10th on one of those newfangled “runner starts the inning on 2B” jobs. Arkansas lost 1-0 to Tulsa.
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14 Responses to “James Paxton’s Continuing Evolution”
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Paxton esta en fuego esta noche!
Oh, sorry, I guess I crossed the wrong border.
Paxton with 16 strikeouts through 7 innings!!!
Ah well, it’s good the Mariners are protecting Paxton’s arm, I guess… but I wanted to see him get a chance at tying the Big Unit for the franchise record of 19.
Anyway, Nicasio is pitching the 8th.
… and he just blew Paxton’s win. Good job.
Bases loaded, one out, Cruz and then Haniger come up… and then there’s three outs. Still 2-2, dammit.
Unfortunately, I can’t stream this game, so I’m stuck with gamecast. Wish I could have seen the 16 K’s, but if they blow it, I’ll be glad I didn’t see it.
I don’t think I can take this. Now the Mariners are down 3-2 after Diaz gives up a leadoff homer in the 9th.
I’ve waited. Now it’s time. Do NOT bring Diaz in that situation.
This is exactly why we can not have nice things and why the Mariners are still just mediocre. What a crap job by everyone not named Paxton.
Paxton was pretty awesome to watch, Steve.
Let’s see some magic, Ichiro!
… shoot, he picked a disappearing act. I should’ve been more specific.
Man, Dee Gordon is fast.
I think some people are second guessing Servais taking Paxton out after 7 innings and 105 pitches, but 105 pitches in today’s “pitch to failure” era is probably equal to 125-130 pitches 15-20 years ago. Plus the guys he gave the ball to had been getting it done, obviously Diaz. Cruz and Haniger had the opportunity to simply put the ball in play and it didn’t happen. Take the series tomorrow.
Given Paxton’s health history, I can’t really fault Servais for pulling him. And, if I look at things objectively, it’s not like I can complain about the bullpen’s overall performance this season. But as a long-suffering Mariners fan who’s suffered through many years of bullpen meltdowns, ineffective closers, and Felix losing 2-1 games – it’s really hard to not knee-jerk overreact to games like yesterday’s… because it just felt so familiar.