Multiple Ways to Dominate: James Paxton No-Hits the Blue Jays
I was sitting down to write this, and then noticed that Jake Mailhot over at LL (and Fangraphs now?) wrote a great summary of what I was going to do here. So…uh, yeahhhh. You could just go read Jake’s article, which’ll probably be more concise.
So, as Jake has elegantly laid out, one of the striking things about last night’s game was just how *different* it was to Paxton’s last start, a start that looked more like traditional dominance. I’m not going to get into the debate over whether no-hitters are a statistical irrelevance; I think they’re cool, and I was pumped when Seager threw out Josh Donaldson last night. But Paxton’s command came and went throughout the night, he gave up a lot of loud contact, and most importantly, he approached the Jays line-up in a profoundly different way than he did the A’s on May 2nd.
You’ll remember that in that earlier start, he used high fastballs more than ever, and racked up dozens of whiffs on them. Whereas his average four-seam fastball prior to May 2nd came in below the center of the zone, they averaged 0.3 feet *above* the zone in that contest. Last night, that average dropped back to just about the center – higher than his April average, sure, but noticeably lower than against the A’s. Here’s the Baseball Savant view of his pitch mix last night – there are still plenty of high fastballs, but they’re mixed in with some low-in-the-zone heaters, too.
Was that an intentional decision? It seems likely, and there are a couple of reasons why. First, Paxton/Zunino seemed to want to work deeper into the game, and their pitch mix and locations seemed designed to elicit more contact – and they got their wish. Fewer whiffs, but more quick innings. Was this change at all related to the Jays line-up? I think so; if you look at expected wOBA or wOBA on fastballs above the midpoint of the zone, you’ll find that the Jays are one of the best hitting clubs in the game.
The problem is that in absolute (as opposed to relative) terms, they’re even better at hitting *low* fastballs. That came across last night; on fastballs below the midpoint, the Jays put 4 balls in play at an average speed of 96 mph. The 6 balls they hit on fastballs above the midpoint averaged 83 MPH off the bat.
The other difference in this game was in Paxton’s choice of secondaries/breaking pitches. His curve has been a problem all year, but last night, it was a perfect change of pace, and one Paxton used to get ground balls – including the double play that Kevin Pillar hit into. Paxton’s curve has lost some of its bat-missing power over the past few years. It got whiffs on 40% of swings over 2016-17, over a standard deviation more than the MLB average. For whatever reason, it’s getting whiffs less frequently now, but it was still able to help Paxton’s plan to pitch more economically. His cutter is and remains a swing-and-miss pitch, so it’s a testament to just how committed to their gameplan that Paxton threw so few of them last night. After throwing over 20 in 4 straight starts in April, he’s now using it sparingly, which may help its effectiveness. Or, he may just not have had a great feel for the pitch, especially after seeing Lourdes Gurriel hit a 3rd inning cutter 388 feet to the wall in left.
Essentially, Paxton and Zunino seemed to come into the game with a plan to get quick outs even if that meant going away from Paxton’s most effective pitches: the high fastball and the cutter. It worked, despite some well-struck balls in play, and it enabled Paxton to work through the 9th without breaking the 100 pitch mark. Paxton’s curve was more effective than it’s been all year, and that means Paxton has multiple ways to beat teams. That efficiency meant that late in the game, Paxton was able to reach back for more velocity when he needed it:
James Paxton is on quite a run, and there’s essentially no pitcher in the league right now teams would want to face less than Big Maple. I’m still not a huge fan of throwing low fastballs, but it’s nice to know he can give batters another look every now and again. The development of his curve is crucial to how long he can keep this level of performance up. His fastball is legitimately one of the best pitches in the game right now, right there with Kluber’s slurve. Over time, batters will learn to adjust to it, even when it’s thrown at the letters. Having a breaking ball to get quick outs or as a different putaway pitch should preserve the fastball’s effectiveness a bit longer. All hail the Big Maple.
Game 34, Mariners at Blue Jays – BABIP Woes
James Paxton vs. Marcus Stroman, 4:05pm
The M’s head to Toronto to take on the surprisingly decent Blue Jays, who used a solid off-season to retool and are hanging around at 19-16. The Jays offense has some pop, but not much else; they’re hitting .237/.315/.427, which works out to dead-on league average. Unfortunately for Toronto, they’ve paired that with poor defense, and thus their position players rank 21st by Fangraphs’ WAR.
If you think it’s a bit early for defensive stats like UZR, well, right. But just using defensive efficiency, they’ve been among the league’s worst teams at turning batted balls into outs. One of the noticeable trends in baseball the past few years has been an increase in league-wide BABIP, a finding that’s hard to square with the fact that more and more teams are using data to shift their defense into better/newfangled arrangements. But this year, it’s dropped quite a bit, back to the heady days of 2010-11, when offense was scarce and pitchers ruled baseball’s landscape. It’s in that context that the Jays’ team BABIP of .309 looks like a real problem. Their offense is leading the league in HRs, and while their staff has given up a bunch (46), the real problem is that they’re still giving up old fashioned runs – runs that are the product of walks and base hits.
Of course, the M’s are only one rank ahead of the Jays in BABIP. Their .307 mark ranks 5th highest in MLB, and is a massive decline from where it’s been in recent years. So is it the defenders’ fault that James Paxton’s BABIP is sky high? Among the 114 pitchers who’ve logged at least 30 IP this year, Paxton’s .349 BABIP is 6th worst. And tonight’s opponent, Marcus Stroman, is in 13th place, at .330. (They’re all trailing the guy with the worst BABIP in baseball, Marco Gonzales). Well, maybe not.
Stroman has been one of the worst pitchers by the new Statcast measures of batted ball quality. Among pitchers who’ve given up at least 50 batted balls, Stroman’s percentage of balls struck at 95 MPH or more is 3rd worst, and it’s the worst among pitchers w/ at least 100 batted balls, just ahead of Mike Leake. Well over half of the balls hit off of him have been 95+ MPH, which is why he’s given up plenty of “barrels” and has an above average exit velocity in every batted ball type. Marcus Stroman isn’t stranding any runners and has a sky high BABIP, but these numbers show us that he’s not just a hard luck case – he’s pitched extraordinarily poorly.
James Paxton has a low average exit velocity, and it’s very low for fly balls/line drives, so his BABIP is purely luck, right? Well, the distribution of those batted balls is kind of strange. Paxton’s given up a lot of 95 MPH+ contact, and that’s saying something given the fact that he hasn’t allowed much contact at all. So with Stroman, you have batters who are fairly consistently hitting him hard. With Paxton, they’re either striking out, hitting absurdly poor contact, or driving the ball.
It’s odd, as Paxton’s extreme fly ball tendencies should help him produce a low BABIP. Indeed, most pitchers near him at the bottom of the league GB% table have very low BABIPs. I wonder if Paxton’s velocity and fly ball tendencies may be producing more balls hit down the lines, particularly to the opposite field? It’s also true that when he slows things down by throwing his curve, batters have tended to punish it – think of Miguel Sano’s long HR. In any event, we’ll see how much of these BABIP woes were just the product of his old fastball usage, where he’d throw his fastball low in the zone and watch batters drive it. Against the A’s 5 days ago, he showed us a very different game plan, and one that might suppress his BABIP.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Canó, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Gamel, LF
SP: Paxton!
The big news ahead of today’s game has nothing to do with the game, but it’s become all too familiar. Jays closer Robert Osuna was arrested last night for assaulting a woman, and he’s been put on “administrative leave” by the league. Screw you, Robert Osuna. MLB is played by people, and people are imperfect at best and sociopathic at worst, so at some level, we’ll always see stories of baseball players committing heinous acts. But it’s pretty clear there’s a problem in this area specifically, and it’s one the MLB, the MLBPA, teams, etc., would do well to focus on. They’ve imposed punishments, so the deterrence side is better than it used to be, but I hope there’s work going on behind the scenes on changing hearts and minds, on deescalation, on not being predatory and/or violent with partners.
Roenis Elias solid start led the Rainiers to a 3-1 win in Reno, which is a terrifying pitching environment. They’ll kick off a series in El Paso against the Padre-affiliated Chihuahuas tonight with Ariel Miranda on the mound.
NW Arkansas beat good ol’ fashioned, everyone’s included Arkansas 5-2 last night. Nathan Bannister kept the Travs in the game despite going 6 IP with 0 strikeouts and 2 walks and 10 hits allowed. Uh…nice..job, I guess? Joey Curletta had 2 hits, and is slashing .286/.437/.527 on the year. Anthony Misiewicz starts for Arkansas tonight.
Modesto was off last night, but start a series against the San Jose Giants tonight with Ljay Newsome taking the hill for the Nuts. The righty has an awesome 34:3 K:BB ratio, but unfortunately, he’s also given up 44 hits and 24 earned runs in 31 2/3 IP, good for an ERA of 6.82. The zone-controlling is right on track, but now it’s time to limit contact.
Clinton beat the West Michigan White Caps 8-7 in 10 IP last night, as Joe Rosa and Dimas Ojeda homered. Tommy Romero was solid for 4 IP, but walked 5 over that span, so his night was cut short. After some ugly middle relief, Kyle Wilcox K’d 5 in 2 1/3 for the win. Raymond Kerr starts for the Lumberkings tonight.
Angels at Mariners: The Most Anticipated Game of the Year
King Felix vs. Shohei Ohtani, 1:10pm
After last night’s classic back-and-forth comeback, today’s game looks even bigger. And let’s be honest: this one didn’t need a boost from context.
These two teams look like they’ll be fighting all year for the wildcard, and if so, these two pitchers will be critical. Felix seems to have righted his ship a bit, and Ohtani’s been as advertised: plus-plus velocity, good secondaries, and a bit of an injury issue. Ohtani’s already notched the fastest pitch by a starter, and is averaging 98 on his fastball.
It’s early May, but this game just *feels* big, and that’s a great sign.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Gamel, LF
SP: El Cartelua
Game 31, Angels at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Garrett Richards, 7:10pm
The M’s host the Angels this weekend in what’s now a must-see series for a completely different reason than we thought a few days ago. With Shohei Ohtani on track to pitch…maybe…on Sunday, this was supposed to be Ichiro’s chance to face another Japanese icon, and perhaps a fitting way to close the curtain on his playing days. Instead, he’s already a member of the front office, but given the way the M’s, Angels, and Astros have played, the three clubs enter today separated by a grand total of a half game. The Astros have fallen back to earth thanks to an encounter with the Yankees, while the Angels struggled with both the Yankees and Red Sox. Sure, sure, the M’s have had the easier schedule to date, but they’ve done what they’re supposed to and win series against inferior teams. The Angels are coming off a sweep of the Orioles, so they know a thing or two about that as well.
Tonight’s game features the Angels’ Garrett Richards, a pitcher I’ve long thought could be great if he could stay healthy. I even picked him as a potential Cy Young vote-getter before the season started, a prediction that now looks…well, it’s early, and how about that Braves pick, huh? Let’s talk about that instead! Richards has his highest ever K/9, and it’s not even close. Unfortunately, he’s going through something affecting several good pitchers this year: a three true outcome explosion. From 2013-2017, Richards’ walk rate stayed around 7%-8%. A bit higher in 2015, the one year he’s eclipsed 200 IP, but lower in 2017. This year, it’s currently at 15%, essentially right where he was this spring (14% in the Cactus League). Worse, he’s given up 4 HRs already, the first time he’s had a HR/9 over 1.0 since his 2011 cup of coffee.
His GB% is still elite, driven by his 96 MPH cutter/four-seamer that has high spin and extremely odd movement. He backs that pitch up with two of the highest spinning breaking balls in the game, a slider and curve that’s he’s using more of now than in prior years. His contact rate is an extremely low 72%, and while he’s not getting a lot more whiffs, he’s tricked batters into NOT swinging at strikes. Batters are offering at just over 53% of strikes, the lowest rate for any starter in the game. That sounds great, but then you look at his walk rate again and realizing that they’re not swinging for a very good reason. If they do nothing, he’s liable to walk them.
This pattern – lots of Ks, lots of walks, lots of HRs, and few swings – is happening to a few other talented pitchers. Robbie Ray’s K/9 would lead baseball if he qualified, and is somehow still ahead of James Paxton’s, but batters are swinging at just 41% of his pitches and taking advantage of a 14% walk rate. They’re waiting until they get a pitch to hit, and then crushing it, as Ray’s HR/9 is also the highest of his career. Paxton’s overall season numbers look like they might belong in this group, but I’m guessing he’s graduated from it, as has a clear example from last year, Blake Snell. Yu Darvish, with a BB/9 of 4.80 and a HR/9 of 1.80, is the new kid in this class.
Of course, the M’s aren’t exactly a patient team. With an above-average swing rate and below-average walk rate, they may be just what Richards needs. Or they would be, if they didn’t have the kind of power that can really hurt a pitcher who’s struggling with the long ball. Lay off low sliders and hunt middle-middle cutters, and you’ll be fine, M’s. Meanwhile, Mike Leake needs to give them a chance. Leake has the highest average exit velocity of any pitcher with at least 100 batted balls, and the second highest average fly ball/liner – which is a problem, given his sudden lack of ground balls. Leake looked like his old self against Cleveland in his last start, so it’s not all hopelessness and dingers. If he made an adjustment, that’s great (he threw more sliders last time out, but nothing too striking).
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Gamel, LF
9: Freitas, C
SP: Leake
The best article on Ichiro’s shock retir..whoops, transition, came from Patrick Dubuque, to no one’s shock. It’s over at BP, and it’s a free article, so go read it now.
The Tigers have sent Miguel Cabrera to the 10-day DL, and have decided that John Hicks, their back-up C/bench bat, will get the majority of the ABs that Cabrera misses. This is itself pretty unremarkable, but M’s diehards may remember Hicks as the glove-first C prospect the M’s drafted out of Virginia in the 2011 draft headlined by his college batterymate, Danny Hultzen. Hicks had a great year in High Desert, but other than that was not known for his hitting; he played in Tacoma for parts of 2 seasons, and was decidedly below average in both, with a slugging percentage under .400. He got a cup of coffee in one of the many lost years the M’s had in the Zduriencik era and came to the plate 34 times, going 2-32 with a stunning 18 strikeouts. He was DFA’d after that and bounced around AAA a bit, but the Tigers signed him in 2016. He’s now come to the plate 77 times for Detroit and has a cumulative slash line of .265/.328/.455 with 8 HRs, which is 8 more than I would’ve bet he’d ever hit. This isn’t a “why do they always get better?” lament, this is a just another hilarious example of baseball’s bizarre developmental paths. Good for John Hicks.
Matt Harvey will be DFA’d tomorrow after refusing a minor league assignment. It’s a move that seems to be in everyone’s best interest, as the odds that there remain things that the Mets could tell him that he hasn’t already tried are pretty low. His behavior makes the decision even easier for New York, but if he’s going to get back on track, it’s exceedingly unlikely that it’d happen in that organization.
Rob Whalen looks to bounce back from his first poor outing of 2018 5-6 days ago, as Tacoma kicks off a road trip in Reno. Tacoma avoided a sweep at the hands of the Albuquerque Isotopes with an 8-3 win yesterday, as Gordon Beckham and Mike Marjama homered and Ariel Miranda pitched pretty well.
Andrew Moore tossed 7 brilliant innings in Arkansas’ 9-1 win over Tulsa, but the game was a 1-1 pitchers duel most of the way. The Drillers Dennis Santana gave up 1 run over 5, but the Travs scored 6 in the 8th off of Shea Spitzbarth, and another 2 in the 9th just to make sure. Chase de Jong takes the hill against Tulsa’s Caleb Ferguson tonight. Ferguson was a 38th round pick by the Dodgers in 2014, and spent a few years in rookie ball thanks to TJ surgery in his senior year of HS, but has pitched brilliantly over the last year+. He started the year as the Dodgers’ #16 prospect, but could make a push up the rankings if he keeps his solid start going. The lefty has a low-90s FB and a good curve.
Modesto beat Rancho Cucamonga 9-6. Reggie McClain tossed a quality start, and Joe Rizzo and Nick Zammarelli continued their hot hitting in the win. Former Pirates top prospect Stetson Allie worked an inning in relief in this one; I guess he’s pitching again. He was a two-way star in high school in Ohio, but was drafted as a high-90s power pitcher. After walking 37 in 26 2/3 IP, including 8 in 2/3 of an IP in 2012, he picked up a bat. He tore up the Sallie League, and had an OPS over .800 in AA in 2014, but a low average and high strikeouts meant he could never quite get over the AA hump. He started pitching again a bit in the Dodgers system last year, and is throwing this year – he has 0 PAs for Rancho – but the walks have returned. Modesto heads to Lake Elsinore to start a series against the Storm tonight, and the Nuts will have Danny Garcia on the mound.
Bowling Green scored 5 in the first signalling pretty clearly that no, there would not be an organizational sweep. They ended up winning 8-3 despite 3 hits from L-Kings OF Jack Larsen, an undrafted FA out of UC San Diego who’s slashing .308/.407/.551 on the year. Oliver Jaskie stars tonight against the Dayton Dragons’ Adrian Rodriguez, a Mexican righty who’ll be back on a minor league mound for the first time since July of 2016…must be TJ surgery?
Game 30, Athletics at Mariners
Wade LeBlanc vs. Sean Manaea, 7:10pm
It’s tough to focus on the game after the past 12-20 hours we’ve had. James Paxton just twirled one of the best games I’ve seen, and then the bullpen blew it. That game was also, we now know, Ichiro’s last in an M’s uniform. Maybe. Probably. Perhaps.
But this is what baseball demands of us. Our need to let something breathe, to consider it, to just wonder – it can all still happen, it’s just jammed into a few hours. Sure, it spills out beyond that time limit, and I’m going to be thinking about both Big Maple and Ichiro while watching today’s game.
Wade LeBlanc is starting because he’s already on the roster, and because the team didn’t want to watch Erasmo Ramirez start again. Guillermo Heredia is back as the M’s face a tough lefty, one who’s already thrown a no-hitter this year and a pitcher who’s off to a brilliant start in general, seemingly fulfilling years of hope since he first grabbed national attention as an Indiana State sophomore in the Cape Cod league.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, RF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: LeBlanc
Jeff Sullivan had a similar reaction to Paxton’s game and the importance of a high fastball in an article today for Fangraphs.
The Rainiers got destroyed last night 12-4, as Roenis Elias had a very forgettable start. Similar situated Cuban lefty SP depth piece Ariel Miranda starts for Tacoma tonight up at Cheney.
The Travelers face Tulsa again, with Andrew Moore taking on #10 Dodgers prospect Dennis Santana.
2017 Cal League all-star Reggie McClain makes his 2nd appearance of the year tonight, leading Modesto against another Dodger affiliate, the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, and LA’s #11 prospect, Dustin May.
Clinton faces Bowling Green, a Rays affiliate. The Lumberkings Raymond Kerr starts opposite Austin Franklin, who ranks as the Rays #14 prospect.
Goodbye Again, Ichiro
Ichiro spent nearly 12 years with this franchise, beginning at the franchise’s short peak, and sticking around to see a series of missteps, from developmental to scouting to trades, cripple the team. For several years, he was the M’s greatest player, and his ten year run at the beginning of his career is clearly Hall of Fame worthy. He clearly loved playing here, which is what made the M’s decision to trade him back in 2012 both a necessary act of compassion and heartbreaking at the same time. It’s what made the M’s decision to bring him back this season both an obvious feel-good story and also fraught with danger on how to handle things if his skills had eroded too much.
Today, the M’s announced that Ichiro will become a special assistant to the Chairman, effective immediately. Ichiro is stepping away from the field – for now, his agent hastens to add – and into the front office. It’s an odd move that prevents the team from announcing a final game, one final announcement, one final at-bat against Shohei Ohtani, say. That may be part of the calculus, of course, along with keeping Ichiro in the org to work with the young players who might listen to him more than the ones who foolishly spurned his advice a decade or more ago.
I think it also highlights one of the many mysteries about Ichiro: who actually made this decision? Ichiro may not want a big send-off with on-field announcements and ceremonial first pitches and stirring video tributes. The M’s have every reason to want one, but they’ve opted to keep the focus on their remaining players and on Ichiro’s new role. For all we’ve been through with Ichiro, and for how many miles Ichiro’s logged with the M’s, I love that there’s still so much we don’t know. I don’t know that I’ve ever encountered a superstar so different, so apart, from the dominant culture. I both can’t imagine an Ichiro twitter account, and would love to try to imagine an Ichiro twitter account. His lack of traditional athlete cliche-speak was partially due to the language barrier, but also I think a testament to how different his mind works. For a variety of reasons, including a simple desire for privacy, we got fleeting glimpses of how his mind worked, and it always left us wanting more.
There are so many ways to talk about Ichiro’s tenure in the org, from the clear story of the M’s failing to capitalize on their acquisition of his singular services to the old saw that he was just a complementary player, and not capable of carrying the team on his back. But that just diminishes Ichiro, by referring to him only in relation to the mediocrity the team often put around him. I just want to say how lucky I feel to have been an M’s fan for his career. He played like a brilliant anachronism, spoke like a philosopher, dressed like Russell Westbrook, and essentially embodied the know-it-when-I-see-it term “cool.”
He’s confounded fans and writers and teammates and opponents. He broke projection systems, broke a tacit, racist embargo on Asian ballplayers playing here, and was the engine behind the greatest team in M’s history. At a time when sabermetrics was fighting a number of battles – the irrelevance of strikeouts, the importance of walks, HRs, etc. – here was a living, dominating challenge. There was more than one way to dominate. It’s a lesson I think about often, and a reminder not to let one way of doing things blind you to other, stranger, cooler options.
Thank you again, Ichiro.
Something Just Clicked
In yesterday’s post about James Paxton’s spin rate improvements, I said that while he’s been pretty good, “he just hasn’t gone nova the way [Gerrit] Cole has,” and that he may need to learn to utilize his fastball differently as its shape and movement change. Hours later, he went out and did exactly that, and the results were extraordinary.
Gerrit Cole’s fastball not only started spinning more when he joined the Astros, but he started throwing it higher. His average fastball elevation with the Pirates was dead on the middle of the strikezone; he clearly liked to throw some low fastballs that were so beloved of his old pitching coach, Ray Searage. But with Houston, that average fastball elevation was 0.2 feet above the midpoint of the zone. Paxton’s fastball had seen even *more* dramatic spin improvements, but as I wrote yesterday, he still liked to throw it down in the zone. It had an average height a few inches below the zone in 2016, and it did in 2018, too.
Until last night. Paxton’s average FB height was 0.3 feet above the center of the zone, and he used a blizzard of high fastballs to utterly dominate a good hitting team in Oakland. Sure, the A’s have plenty of swing and miss in their line-up, and yes, Paxton’s command of the pitch had a lot to do with his stunning performance, but it was amazing to see how an adjustment in approach could produce such immediate dividends. I said yesterday that if he fully incorporated his new spin into his approach, look out league. It looks like he may have done so. Good luck, AL.
This isn’t to say that he’s already the best pitcher in the league. He essentially beat the A’s with 1 pitch, or maybe 1.5. His cutter worked well as a pitch that moved lower in the zone, and it allowed him to get called strikes and whiffs as batters got used to to the rise on his fastball. More worrying, even during a career-best, career-defining performance like this, his curveball is still lagging behind. The A’s recognized it and put some good swings on it, and he only threw it 12-13 times. It *should* be more of a weapon, but it hasn’t been this year, and wasn’t last night. That’s both a thing to work on, and a testament to what Paxton’s fastball can be when it’s on like that: it can be so dominant that Oakland looked helpless against it even when they knew it was coming.
Keep doing this, James:
Fastballs with a lot of rise at the top of the zone become whiffs. Fastballs with a lot of rise near the bottom of the zone don’t turn into whiffs *or* ground balls. As Paxton’s seen, they actively help batters elevate the ball. It’s why Paxton’s expected wOBA on fastballs was nothing special coming into last night’s game, and why the pitch looked completely different once he started pitching up. Even last night, A’s hitters went 2-3 on fastballs below the midpoint of the zone. On fastballs above that point, they were 1-15. There’s a lesson here.
James Paxton’s Continuing Evolution
Yesterday, the baseballing internets focused on a Twitter exchange between Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer and Houston’s Lance McCullers and many, many fans, coaches, etc. The argument Bauer made is summarized in this article by Eno Sarris in the Athletic ($). The TL/DNR summary is that pine tar or other substances not only increase grip, but allow a pitcher to dramatically increase their spin rate, making them more effective. A team could teach them this technically-forbidden but undeniably useful skill and improve pitchers they acquire. Not everyone on the Astros has improved his spin rate, and McCullers’ spin rate remains low. The unspoken target of this accusation was Gerrit Cole, the former Pirate who’s presently dismantling the AL with his new, high-spin fastball.
So pitchers are jawing, and accusations of cheating and jealousy are flying around. This is clearly not simply a Houston issue, as Jeff Sullivan tweeted – the Brewers have had a larger year over year increase. There’s a wide spectrum of possible causes, too, from pine tar (not permitted) to sun screen (permitted) to some training hack. As a blogger, I’m not in a good position to figure out what could be causing it. Doctoring the ball can make it do funny things, a fact I learned very early in my baseball education, watching the M’s Gaylord Perry. I’m not going to talk about that today. I just want to talk about this:
| Pitcher | V. 2016 | Spin 2016 | V. 2018 | Spin 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole | 95.9 | 2171 | 96 | 2,325 |
| Paxton | 97.5 | 2133 | 95.3 | 2,356 |
The v. 2016 is the pitcher’s four-seam fastball velocity in 2016; V.-2018 is thus their FB velocity in 2018.
James Paxton’s evolution in spin rate has been more gradual, but the picture here is striking. Both of these pitchers were super high velocity pitchers in 2016 despite lower-than-average spin rates. That helped them both post average or better ground ball rates, and but it may have reduced their bat-missing capability, particularly in Cole’s case. But by this year, both are now well above the league average spin rate of 2,264 RPM.
And what a difference it’s made:
| Pitcher | K% – 2016 | BB% – 2016 | GB% -2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole | 19.4 | 7.1 | 45.6 |
| Paxton | 22.9 | 4.7 | 48.1 |
| Pitcher | K% – 2018 | BB% – 2018 | GB% -2018 |
| Cole | 39.4 | 5.2 | 31.7 |
| Paxton | 31.2 | 10.6 | 31.6 |
Cole’s K% has *doubled* since 2016, and he’s done that while reducing his walk rate. The only trade-off, if you can even call it that, is a reduction in ground ball rate; he’s now an extreme fly ball pitcher. The results for Paxton are somewhat less dramatic, except for the GB% drop. His K% has grown, too, and it’s now over 30%. But his walk rate’s spiking, and all of those fly balls can hurt, as his 5 HRs-allowed show. Paxton’s change in spin rate has been even more extreme than Cole’s – it just doesn’t show up on year-over-year lists because he had an intermediate step in 2017. It’s pushed his FB whiff rate up, while simultaneously making the pitch an extreme fly ball pitch. Meanwhile, Paxton’s curveball isn’t getting the results it once did. He’s struggling to command it, as batters are laying off, and doing more damage when they swing. Has ITS spin rate improved too? No – it’s actually dropped a tiny bit, but it’s essentially unchanged. (Cole’s is up slightly, while Paxton’s dropped).
The point here is that spin rate by itself is not some miracle cure. Even if the Astros have developed easy-to-hide grippy goop and instructed their pitchers how to apply it, it wouldn’t fundamentally change them *by itself*. Spin rate can change movement, and pitchers have always monkeyed around with pitch movement – a different grip on a slider making it slower and sweepier, which is too a baseball word. A sinker grip to take away spin and induce drop. All of those changes can be either beneficial or not; more movement on a slider is not automatically “better.” Or rather, even if it’s better in a hypothetical in which every other variable stays the same, it’s damned difficult to keep every other variable the same when dealing with human beings. Gerrit Cole is doing a number of things differently in Houston, and a high spin rate is one of them. It’s working really well. James Paxton is doing a number of things differently in Seattle, and it’s working…uh…the results are different. Paxton’s striking out more than he ever has, but he’s giving up more fly balls and thus HRs AND walking more.
Paxton’s been effective this year, despite the ERA – he just hasn’t gone nova the way Cole has. I wonder if coaching needs to adapt as these changes in spin rate/motion/whatever unfold. Like, how are they *using* their new, spinnier, fastballs? Gerrit Cole’s throwing it much higher now, as you might expect. Paxton’s throwing his a bit higher, too, though the average height at which it crosses the plate is lower than the midpoint. Cole’s used to be right at it, and is now a few inches higher:
| Pitcher | 2016 V Loc | 2018 V Loc |
|---|---|---|
| Cole | 0 | 0.21 |
| Paxton | -0.23 | -0.11 |
Paxton’s slower evolution, with spin increasing (even when accounting for velocity) over the course of two years, is fascinating. It’s happened *only* on his fastball, which I would argue makes pine tar a bit less likely. It may have been the result of a mechanical change, which would be really interesting. It’s done what it’s supposed to, in a way. But I feel like Paxton’s not quite done incorporating the changes into his overall approach. If and when he does, look out league.
His opponent in tonight’s game is veteran lefty Brett Anderson, the oft-injured hurler who came up with the A’s and then moved to various clubs, from Rockies to Dodgers to Cubs. He’s topped 180 innings once, and has seen time in the bullpen in an effort to keep him healthy (it didn’t work). The A’s re-signed him this year, and he’s been lights out in 4 starts for Nashville. When last we saw him, he mixed 5 pitches – a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, a curve, and a change. He’s always been an elite ground ball pitcher, which makes up for more pedestrian pure stuff. A lefty who can command a bunch of pitches is a solid opponent, but then, the M’s have actually hit slightly better against lefties this year.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, RF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Zunino, C
8: Healy, 1B
9: Ichiro, LF
SP: Paxton
Casey Lawrence would’ve taken the mound for Tacoma tonight against Albuquerque, but he’s been recalled along with Guillermo Heredia. Dan Altavilla and Erasmo Ramirez have both been placed on the disabled list for what I’m 100% positive are real injuries and not just an attempt to bring in other players for a short while.
It was getaway day for much of the minors, so the affiliates have all played, except for Tacoma. Tommy Romero had his first tough outing, going only 2 IP in Clinton’s 10-5 loss to Bowling Green. Modesto banged out 15 hits in an 11-4 win over Rancho Cucamonga, with Ljay Newsome getting the win. Arkansas beat Tulsa 5-3 behind Nathan Bannister. Roenis Elias starts for Tacoma tonight.
Yesterday’s games featured a bunch of low-scoring nail-biters. Tacoma lost 3-1, and were nearly no-hit by Jeff Hoffman and some Albuquerque relievers – Ian Miller broke it up in the 9th. Modesto and Clinton both lost 2-1, with Clinton’s loss coming in the 10th on one of those newfangled “runner starts the inning on 2B” jobs. Arkansas lost 1-0 to Tulsa.
On Expectations
The M’s enter May riding high, 2nd in the AL West and neck and neck with the Yankees and Angels. Especially given their injury woes centered around opening day, I’m not sure that April could’ve gone much better. Not only have the M’s fared better than expected, particularly against Cleveland, but a few of the M’s rivals have face-planted in the early going. Minnesota apparently read my “Upside” post and have watched as Lance Lynn has been absolutely awful, sunk by a blizzard of dingers. And then there’s the fact that the M’s themselves have walked the talk that their own front office (and essentially nobody else) put out.
Mitch Haniger has been one of the game’s best hitters in April, and he’s changing one of the team’s key weaknesses from last year. In 2017, the M’s – led by Nelson Cruz, Robbie Cano and others – hit fastballs pretty well, but struggled a bit against breaking stuff and sliders in particular. In itself, that’s not all that surprising. Sliders are typically thrown when the pitcher has the platoon advantage, and often when he’s got an advantage in the count. But it was still an issue: guys like Ben Gamel raked when pitchers threw them a bunch of FBs, but sunk when pitchers adjusted and gave them breaking balls. Gamel was the worst offender, but he wasn’t alone: Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Robbie Cano and (especially) Danny Valencia all exhibited this trait to one degree or another. Haniger didn’t, and this year, he’s been even better against sliders/curves. What’s critical is that he’s no longer alone. Cano’s change in approach has coincided with improved performance on sliders; my guess is that his increased patience means that he’s simply swinging less at sliders and breaking balls that move out of the zone – his O-swing rate has dropped and his overall swing rate is down by about 9 percentage points. This has pushed his walk rate up sharply, and helped balance things a bit from bringing in free-swingers like Ryon Healy and Dee Gordon.
This is all well and good, but, as is my nature, I’m still a bit worried. The M’s seem to be better than expected, but then, so do the Angels, Yankees and tonight’s opponent, the A’s. It sucks that just as the M’s address some nagging weaknesses, the AL West is suddenly a much more difficult environment. The M’s offense has been good, but the A’s are showing that last year’s debuts from guys like Matt Chapman and Matt Olson weren’t flukes. Sure, their pitching staff is kind of a mess behind Sean Manaea, but damn it, why did Sean Manaea have to pick *this* year to break out?
The nice thing about this start, though, is that I don’t have the kind of dread regarding their rivals. The A’s are a low-key kind of terrifying, but I certainly don’t think they’re better than the M’s…only that I can envision a few scenarios in which they beat out the M’s for a wild card. Same with the Blue Jays, who’ve overachieved, and perhaps even the Yankees, possessors of one of the most fearsome line-ups in the game. They match up really, really well with the M’s, and I think they’re better on paper, but I can easily see how the M’s could get past them. This isn’t even bringing up a team like the Twins, who’re now so far behind that they’d need to play out of their minds in the remaining months. Yes, I know they did so last year, but prior results are not a guarantee of future returns. I’m not saying that a one-month record papers over all of the problems the M’s had and still clearly have. They still give up more HRs than they hit *despite employing Mitch Haniger* and their bullpen’s been so-so despite a dream start from Edwin Diaz. That’s all still relevant, but with the offense playing at this level, those flaws aren’t exactly fatal.
The M’s haven’t won anything yet, but they exceeded expectations in April, and showed that there’s enough upside potential to stay relevant throughout the summer. Whether they actually do so is going to depend on how they address some of their remaining holes, from the back of the rotation to the 6th-7th innings in relief. In a system largely devoid of impact talent, those are holes the M’s are shockingly well positioned to address internally. We’ll have to see what happens at 1B, but a Ryon Healy breakout would be a pretty nice bonus.
So, with all of that as prelude, let me wish you and yours a very happy Felix Day. The M’s welcome the wrecking crew that is the A’s offense, but also look forward to dealing with the A’s rotation. Andrew Triggs is still limiting HRs thanks to a great GB%, but he’s still not as effective as he could (should?) be given a persistently bad strand rate. Triggs throws a sinker, and then a slider and curve. It’s odd that his two big secondary pitches are similar, but they allow him to modify the horizontal movement a bit, given his low 3/4, nearly sidearm, mechanics. That curve’s been especially hard on lefties, and help counter what you’d expect would be devilishly high platoon splits. To be fair, his slider’s effective against them too, so he’s clearly got some deception in his delivery.
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Healy, 1B
SP: Felix.
From Mike Curto comes the odd story of the end of the Arkansas Travelers’ game last night in Springfield. The Travs were down 8-4 in the 9th, but had the bases loaded with nobody outs when Chuck Taylor hit a low line drive to second baseman Luke Dykstra. It wasn’t exactly clear whether he caught the ball on the fly or played it on a hop, but apparently, the 1B umpire signaled that he’d made the catch. Dyskstra flipped it to SS, who then fired to 1B for what they thought was a 4-6-3 DP, but the Travs runners all went back to their bags, as they thought it’d been ruled a catch. In all of the confusion, the runner on 3rd, Joe DeCarlo, ran home. The umpires got together and ruled that it was a 4-6-3 double play, but that DeCarlo’s run counted, as he’d essentially tagged up and scored (on a LD on the IF). The game resumed, but the pitcher threw to 3B, arguing that DeCarlo had left early. That appeal was upheld, meaning that the game technically ended on a triple play. The Travs now head to Tulsa to face the Drillers, though the same umpiring crew will work the game. Travs manager Daren Brown got tossed last night after everything went down, and as Curto notes, might try to get a word in as he turns in his line-up card tonight. Johendi Jiminian starts for Arkansas.
Tacoma lost 5-3 after a somewhat encouraging start from the scuffling Max Povse. The tall righty went 6 2/3, but gave up 2 HRs that proved decisive. Tonight, Christian Bergman takes the mound opposite longtime prospect Jeff Hoffman, who’s still trying to put it all together after missing his draft year with TJ surgery a few years ago.
Modesto had *almost* as interesting an ending to their game last night as Arkansas. Up 8-3 entering the bottom of the 9th, Rancho Cucamonga loaded the bases with one out, then got a run on a fielder’s choice. So, just as with the Travs game, it was an 8-4 score with the bases juiced. The Nuts went to their bullpen and brought in Gonzaga product Wyatt Mills, who’s been great this year. Batter Omar Estevez lined the ball into the RF gap, and Nick Zamarelli couldn’t make the play. 3 runs scored, and Omar steamed around 3rd trying for a 2-out-in-the-9th-game-tying-inside-the-park-grand-slam. He quickly realized that was a fool’s errand, tried to go back to 3rd, but was caught by the catcher, who threw to 3B to end the game and preserve an 8-7 Nuts win. Randy Bell takes the hill tonight.
Clinton was off yesterday, but they kick off a series with Bowling Green tonight behind lefty Nick Wells, who’s opposed by Dean Strotman, a 4th round pick last year by the Rays who laid waste to the NY-Penn league, but is finding the MWL a tad trickier this season.