Game 107 – Astros at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Charlie Morton, 7:10pm
Last night’s game was, in your author’s humble opinion, the best of the 2018 season. Sure, the offense looked lost at times, but they were facing Gerrit Cole, an ace having a beast of a season for Houston. Cole was on fire, and would’ve made any offense look silly. James Paxton’s the M’s ace, but you understood why the Astros were slight favorites, even in Seattle: Paxton’s had great games, but also a few clunkers, and didn’t have the pure runs-allowed numbers you’d love from the ace of a playoff team. But when he’s on, he’s right there with the Coles and Verlanders of the league. Big Maple became the Ace(r) that the M’s needed, and matched Cole inning for inning before the M’s scratched two runs across on a huge, huge 2-out double from Nelson Cruz.
I’ve said it many times: I don’t want the M’s to play for the 2nd wildcard like it’s some valuable trophy. I want the M’s to compete – really compete – with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros. The M’s have a better record than anyone in the NL, but it can be hard some times to scan through the rosters in Houston or Chicago or LA and think, “Yes, the M’s can absolutely win a 7 game series against them.” There’s more than a little M’s-inspired pessimism there; I mean, of COURSE the M’s can beat them in a 7 game series. Anything can happen in a 7 game series! But you know what I mean – it’s not enough to just have a solid team with a great closer that overachieves and is suuuuper happy to be the road team in the wildcard game and get that playoff drought monkey off their back. I’d like a top 3 in the rotation that could go toe to toe with Verlander-Cole-Morton or Sale-Price-Rodriguez-Porcello. Still, with Paxton looking like he brings his best stuff in big games, you could see that the M’s would be a very tough out in the wildcard game, and if Marco Gonzales continues to improve, and if Mike Leake just stays consistent. Games like last night makes even the most pessimistic fan squint and see a playoff squad. Even starting Andrew Romine at 3B didn’t take away from the effect.
Tonight, the M’s face Charlie Morton, who averages 97 on a swerving four-seamer and 96 on a death-dealing sinker. He has a massive, sweeping curve at 80 MPH that breaks gloveside by 10″ while his sinker gets 10″ of armside movement, and then he’s got a cutter and split-change, because why not. He was signed to a two-year deal before 2017 for $14 M, or easily less than Juan Nicasio got. Development allows you to do so much, like completely remake the career trajectory of a former journeyman 5th starter. This is not about minimizing Morton’s payroll. He’s absolutely been worth 10X more than Houston’s paying him, and that’s unfortunate, but here’s the thing: Charlie Morton – the Charlie Morton who signed a couple of small deals just to stick around – is now in line for a major payday. Development can turn a low-bonus signing into Jose Altuve or Luis Severino, just as it can take the #1 overall pick like Carlos Correa and mold him into a superstar. It can do so much, you have to wonder why the Astros felt such urgency to go out onto the market and pick up Roberto Osuna, still serving a suspension for a horrific attack on his girlfriend. He’s not eligible yet, as he’s got a court date and then his suspension clock still has a few days left, but as pretty much everyone’s been saying, the Astros somehow get to use Osuna in the playoffs. The Astros have Hector Rondon, who’s been great as closer once Ken Giles was sent away, and Collin McHugh, sporting a 1.05 ERA at the back of their pen. Given their touch with guys like, er, Rondon and McHugh, it’s really, really hard to justify the need to bring in Osuna. Go get a win, M’s.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Span, LF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, RF
6: Herrman, C
7: Healy, 1B
8: Heredia, CF
9: Romine, 3B
SP: Leake
Trade Deadline Wrap-Up
The M’s had a busy trade deadline, sneaking in a last-minute trade for Marlins CF Cameron Maybin. Perhaps the most gratifying move for this FO wasn’t even one involving the M’s – it was watching the Angels pull the plug and move Ian Kinsler to an actual contender. Let’s go over the M’s moves.
1: The M’s acquire duel bullpen specialists in Zach Duke and Adam Warren
I wrote at length about Duke yesterday, so I’ll focus more on Warren here. Warren’s obviously a righty, and he’s been a solid contributor to a bullpen that simply has no room for more contributors. The Yankees bullpen is the game’s best by quite a ways, and one of the big reasons is its depth. Yes, yes, Chapman and Betances at the back, but they’re getting phenomenal seasons from Jonathan Holder, Chad Green and AJ Cole. The result, as Dan Szymborski wrote about today, is that Adam Warren’s been relegated to mop-up duty because that’s the only spot they’ve got for him. With Zach Britton joining the ‘pen, the Yankees are selling off the bottom third or so of their relievers, many of whom have actual value, as opposed to the bottom third of most other teams’ bullpen.
In exchange, the M’s give up merely international bonus pool money. A few years ago, the Yankees followed the logic of the CBA-dictated international bonus pools and spent many multiples of their putative “cap,” bringing them a windfall of international talent – talent they’ve been relatively good at developing. This year, they’re taking the market by storm again, but they’re staying within their cap as well. How? By selling off excess relievers for bonus pool spending authority. The deal for Chasen Shreve helped them net the best pitching prospect in this year’s class in Osiel Rodriguez. The deal for Warren will probably fund another deal they already had a handshake on. The Yankees stay under the luxury tax, avoid penalties in the J2 signing period, and reap huge rewards if they’re able to turn one of their signings into the next Luis Severino. The trade makes plenty of sense for the Yankees.
It also makes sense for the M’s, who don’t give up any talent to pick a guy with a strong three-pitch mix with good deception. Despite the pedestrian velocity on Warren’s four-seam fastball, it’s a real swing-and-miss pitch. He pairs it with a slider with some two-plane break and what used to be his bread and butter, a diving change-up around 7 MPH slower than his 91-92 MPH fastball. This season, he has pronounced platoon splits, with righties struggling against fastball and slider while lefties have seen his FB much better. Over his career, though, those splits disappear – he’s had essentially no splits to speak of, thanks to that great change-up. In 2014, for example, he had fairly noticeable reverse splits. He’s fine to use as a ROOGY before the M’s get to Colome/Diaz, but he’s not hopeless against lefties.
I mentioned this a bit over a month ago when the M’s were facing the Yanks, but Warren’s another product of the freakishly effective Yankee pitching development program. That post noted that new starter Jonathan Loaisiga’s FB had nearly identical movement to Luis Severino’s – both were just shy of 9.4″ of vertical rise. Adam Warren checks in this year at 9.46. Ex-Yankee Nick Rumbelow’s at 9.78″. Domingo German’s at 9.0″. What about Jonathan Holder? 9.33. You get the point. All of these fastballs are remarkable similar in terms of vertical movement. They’re fairly similar in horizontal movement, but the vertical movement part is almost spooky. Why? Because I’ve traditionally thought that vertical movement is a byproduct of backspin that’s strongly influenced by your arm angle. Higher arm angle = more backspin, as your spin becomes more efficient. Is this just the Yanks hording high-spin pitchers and molding their mechanics?
No – take a look at this table on spin rate from Statcast. Domingo German really does have freakishly high spin rates. But Nick Rumbelow’s are almost as freakishly LOW. Adam Warren’s are well below average, while Luis Severino’s are above average. The Yankees are taking guys with much, much different spin rates and still getting the exact pitch “shape” they want – a mostly straight version with good-not-great vertical rise. If they wanted Domingo German, say, or Jonathan Holder, to have a big-time rising FB, they could probably do that. If they wanted Nick Rumbelow to throw a bowling ball sinker, they could probably do that. They don’t, though. They’ve got to tailor the spin efficiency of each to produce this 9-and-change vertical profile. It’s that pitch that seems to pair best with a change and breaking ball, either slider or hard curve. I don’t get why you’d want carbon copies, but I’m not going to judge the ballclub that’s created one of the most fearsome bullpens of all time.
The one concern I’d point out is that sometimes when you acquire a Yankee, the Yankee development magic stays in the Bronx. Nick Rumbelow has…underwhelmed, let’s just say. Adam Warren himself was traded once, in 2016, when the eventual Champs in Chicago picked him up for the stretch run. He was…fine, I guess. Sure, sure, David Robertson (cutter – he doesn’t throw a four-seam – vertical movement? 9.34″) did fine for a while with the White Sox, and Chapman was fine with the Reds and Cubs, but it’s something to watch. Still, the M’s needed a surer reliever in a tough spot in the 6th-7th than either the out-of-favor Juan Nicasio or the scuffling Nick Vincent, and now they have one. They improved their 2018 odds without sacrificing any prospects. Tough to complain about this one.
2: M’s get CF Cameron Maybin from Miami for SS Bryson Brigman+international bonus pool money
The M’s have not gotten a lot of production from their center fielders. Dee Gordon hit better there than he has at 2B, but that’s both not saying much and balanced by some poor defense as he got used to playing OF. Guillermo Heredia started off the season brilliantly, drawing plenty of walks and hitting for a decent average. Since then, though, it’s been a free fall, as pitchers just throw the ball down the middle (his walk rate in July is 1.7%) and his BABIP has fallen as well. Heredia’s season wRC+ is down to 85, and worse, it’s forecasted to be even worse going forward. Worse, his career defensive numbers are ugly in CF. The M’s needed an upgrade, and got one.
Cameron Maybin is not a world-beater, and with a better season line AND better batting projections AND better CF defense, he figures to be an improvement over Heredia and the plan B of just stuffing Ben Gamel in CF. But the M’s may be hoping for more than just incremental improvement while they try to work on Heredia’s swing in AAA. Maybin’s ground ball rate is still pretty high, but he’s running his lowest GB:FB ratio since 2010. That’s backed up by Statcast data, which says he’s essentially doubled his launch angle to 8.6 degrees this year from 4.1 last year, continuing a trend from 1.9 in 2015. None of that showed up as actual *production* early on, though. Maybin was dreadful in April and May, but has really come on in July, hitting his only 3 HRs of the season, and batting .309/.426/.456 over 82 PAs. If they know he did something or if they suspect any mechanical changes are feeling more normal to him, then maybe he could clear higher bars than “a better hitter than Guillermo Heredia.”
To get the vet, the M’s gave up their 3rd-round pick from the 2016 draft, SS Bryson Brigman. Brigman had been a notable prospect as a kid/high schooler, but went to the University of San Diego instead, whereupon the M’s drafted him as an eligible sophomore. He was talented enough to get picked in the 3rd round, but lacked any semblance of in-game power, putting up a so-so ISO with metal bats. That seemed to be confirmed in his first go-round in pro ball: his SLG% was under .300 in both 2016 and ’17. He’s fared much better in 2018 in the hitter-friendly Cal League, but even with an average over .300, his SLG% is still below .400. There’s bat-to-ball skill, and some solid plate discipline, but he’s not a can’t miss guy by any stretch.
ANY trade for a rental (Maybin’s a free agent after this season) can come back to bite you, but this seems like a decent deal for an upgrade at a position of need right now. Do the M’s need to restock their system? Yes, clearly. But is this a worthwhile price to pay for a non-elite MLB’er like Maybin? Yes, just as clearly. The M’s have made it clear that they’re playing for 2018 – it’s wild card or bust. We can have a separate debate over whether that was a good strategy, but given where they are in the standings, and given Oakland just saw their 4th SP have Tommy John surgery out of their expected 5-man rotation this year…you give up a bit of potential to give yourself the best possible shot. People like, uh, me have been saying that while the deals for relievers are perfectly fine, they’re technically upgrades on the M’s best player group. The biggest problem at this point is the line-up, and today the M’s decided they couldn’t say they gave it their all if they didn’t deal with their CF problems. This has to hurt for Guillermo, but he’s young and can regroup in AAA. Another day, another deal I legitimately can’t find too much fault with.
Game 106, Astros at Mariners – Another Bullpen Addition: Welcome, Zach Duke
James Paxton vs. Gerrit Cole, 7:10pm
Before we get to today’s game – a game featuring an absolute can’t-miss pitching match-up – we need to address the day’s biggest news, which is that the M’s have acquired lefty reliever Zach Duke from the Minnesota Twins. The out-of-it Twins have been taking offers on their pitching staff, from starters like Jake Odorizzi to closer Fernando Rodney, but the M’s went after lefty specialist Duke, who’s a free agent at the end of the year and having a solid season. The return is A-ball 1B Ryan Costello, who’s having a solid season in the Midwest League, and AA starter Chase De Jong, who came over from the Dodgers org before 2017 and who pitched at three levels, making the big club for 7 games including 4 starts.
De Jong had been the Texas League pitcher of the year in 2016, so it was odd that he struggled so mightily in AAA. Sure, as a command-and-control guy, he was facing better competition and a much different scoring environment, but he posted an ERA of 6 and a FIP even higher than that. He struggled in the big leagues, too, and eventually got moved down to AA – back to the Texas League. Where he continued to struggle. Things have gone much better in 2018, as he’s repeating the Texas League yet again, but at this point it’s fair to say something isn’t working, and I’m glad the M’s were able to get some value here. De Jong seems like a perfect change-of-scenery candidate, so not a bad flyer for the Twins to take, but I keep thinking his ceiling is pretty limited. The odds of him reaching it here were minimal, so hey, nice move.
Ryan Costello was a 31st-rounder in 2017 out of Coastal Carolina, and the 1B hit very well in the Arizona League after signing. Skipping over the Northwest League, Costello’s more than held his own in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League this year, thanks to a walk rate north of 10% and solid-but-not-remarkable power. As a 22-year old 1B, he’s going to have to keep this up for a while to be a big time prospect, but he’s done far, far more than you’d ever expect from a 31st rounder. I tend to think the game’s missed a bit on bat-first 1B types, as it’s easy to say that the position demands so much production at the plate, but, uh, the position *really does* demand a ton of production at the plate. He’s done that to this point, but his average may be a concern. All in all, another solid lottery ticket for the Twins, and a great job by the M’s that he’d performed well enough to be included in a deal for Duke.
Unlike Sam Tuivailala, Duke really is an effective situational reliever. His sinker’s his primary fastball, and while it’s only 88 MPH, it gets exceptional sink, and it’s a big reason why Duke’s able to produce high ground ball rates. He’s traditionally relied on a curve as his out pitch, but he also mixes in a slider, and he’s got a change-up when asked to face righties. After a down year in 2017, he’s again striking out over 1/4 of the lefties he faces, and more importantly, he’s allowed only 1 HR to a lefty…since 2015, a span of more than 200 PAs against southpaws. Compared to, say, Marc Rzepczynski, Duke’s FB has more sink, and he gets more two-plane break on his slider. He’s got the deeper repertoire overall. Hence, his far superior projections at this point. Yes, comparing him to a DFA’d guy isn’t a high bar to clear, but there are some obvious similarities. It’s just that Duke’s been a bit better overall, and will likely remain so. (It’s *also* because the M’s just signed Rzepczynski on a minor league deal.) This isn’t a game-changing move, but it’s a solid addition in an area of need. M’s relievers have been the best group on the club over the past 30 days, as the hitting’s been non-existent and the starters have been all over the map. But the M’s have to avoid overworking some of their guys, or they’ll get a repeat of the bullpen swoons of 2017 and 2016. Adding Duke should help with that.
They’ll need it, because they’re facing a tough stretch of games here. The next two nights, the M’s will face Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton, #9 and #20 in fWAR, and #2 and #8 in K% among qualified pitchers. For an offense that’s reeling a bit, that’s a tough assignment. The good news, if there is any, is that the M’s don’t seem as likely to strike out as many of the other line-ups Cole/Morton face. Cole was absolutely red hot when the M’s saw him in April, but he K’d only 5 on that day…not that the M’s could do anything with the balls they put in play. But still: Cole’s got an absolutely terrible career K rate against this line-up, and that includes Dee Gordon and Jean Segura, who’ve faced him a combined 46 times, and struck out once each. He’s only struck out three players more than once in his career, and he’s not going to see any of them tonight: James Paxton, Mike Leake, and Andrew Romine. Yes, most of these at-bats came back when he was a sinkerballing pitch-to-contact guy, but again, the 5 Ks he had against the M’s in April are tied for his single game low this year. Am I kind of reaching here? Yeah, maybe, but if you put it in play, you’ve got a chance. Still, this match-up puts a lot of pressure on Paxton to be perfect or near perfect. That’s a lot to ask for a guy coming off the DL, though we’ll see if the rest helps his velocity and stuff, or if he’s rusty and missing his spots.
Lots of talk today on the radio and on twitter about the M’s upcoming decision regarding Felix Hernandez. Do they move him to the pen? DL him with a phantom injury and tell him to work on something? Move him? I’ve been one of Felix’s biggest fans since this blog dubbed him King Felix about 15 years ago, but I understand the M’s dilemma here. What I don’t understand is why the org can’t help him make the kinds of changes that have rejuvenated guys who’ve been even worse in recent years: James Shields, Derek Holland, or hell, Charlie Morton. No one’s asking for a version of Felix that throws 98 again. But to watch the org trash Felix or blame him and not *help him improve* has been frustrating. Yes, it takes two sides, and if Felix steadfastly refuses to change anything, believing he’s above such demands, that’d be one thing. But everything we’ve seen suggests that he is: he changed his FB approach when the team asked him to. He revamped his offseason workouts. He’s been willing to listen; the M’s just need to give him something actionable that will help. I don’t know what that thing is, but someone there must have some ideas. His slider and curve often melt into each other, reducing the effectiveness of both. His sinker’s lost all trace of deception against lefties, who are absolutely teeing off on the thing. It’s still somewhat playable against righties, but he’s going to have to change his pitch mix AND work on disguising all of his pitches a bit better. But that’s all doable. Really good teams are doing these kinds of mechanical tweaks on the fly all the time.
I understand that the margin for error is now limited. But the M’s need to understand that putting all of the onus on Felix to improve or…else is not only a bad look, it’s counterproductive. The M’s have made it clear they’re not looking at other starters, and now with a lefty and righty situational reliever, they’re bullpen should be just about complete. If the M’s had a premium SP prospect beating down the door, that’d be one thing. Instead, they’ve got Rob Whalen and a mostly-healthy Erasmo Ramirez who was destroyed in the handful of innings he’s pitched this year. You help Felix be the best version of himself he can be, or you run the risk of losing the wild card. Personally, I’d doubt that trashing him publicly and saying that Jerry/Scott Servais will have to talk through his role going forward is the best way to motivate him, but they’re obviously closer to the situation than I am. I just think that removing him is an admission of failure, a failure that goes far beyond Felix’s on-field performance. Great players fade away all the time – I know it, and I’m not being sentimental here. I’m disappointed that an organization who’s invested *so much* in mental and physical training, who’s bet on their own ability to motivate and coach, either can’t get through to their franchise icon, or doesn’t know what to tell him.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Span, LF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, CF
6: Gamel, RF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Romine, 3B
SP: Paxton
Ooookay, so I didn’t *think* Cole would get to face Romine, but I guess he does. Apologies for the bad guess.
Erasmo’s making another rehab start for the Rainiers tonight in New Orleans, as he squares off against the Babycakes’ Jeff Brigham, a Federal Way and University of Washington product. A former 4th-round pick, Brigham’s been great when healthy, but has suffered a barrage of injuries that have limited his innings.
The M’s have made a series of moves with another trade (for RHP Adam Warren) and with Paxton coming off the dL. Vogelbach’s back to AAA. Gordon Beckham’s been DFA’d. The M’s brought up IF Zach Vincej, at least until the trade acquisitions arrive. All of this has put some pressure on the Rainiers roster. Mike Curto just tweeted that they have only 9 position players eligible to play tonight – including three catchers.
Game 104, Mariners at Angels
King Felix vs. Jaime Barria, 6:07pm
Happy Felix Day. Last night’s loss was a painful one, as the M’s couldn’t do more against an Angels bullpen that they’ve torched this season, and because they were a finger from taking the lead on a bizarre attempt at a steal of home.
On the plus side, it’s looking like Dee Gordon’s locked in again, which makes it slightly less painful that he’s leading off every game. Gordon’s a classic guy who’ll get undervalued by traditional sabermetrics, but no matter how you value him, I guarantee you Jerry Dipoto values him more.
Think Tuivailala may join the team tomorrow, but we’ll see if he’s in uniform tonight.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Span, LF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: El Cartelua
Game 103 – Mariners at Angels – Welcome, Sam Tuivailala, an Odd Sort of Situational Reliever
Wade LeBlanc vs. Andrew Heaney, 7:00pm
Before we talk about tonight’s game, let’s talk about the big news of the day: the M’s made their long-awaited trade for relief help today, bringing in former Cardinals RHP Sam Tuivailala for RP prospect Seth Elledge.
Tuivailala has been someone I’ve had my eye on for a while, as he showed plus-plus velo a few years ago. He came up to the big leagues averaging over 98 MPH on his fastball, and had the rudiments of a good slider to pair with it. He’s developed a sinker as well, which he uses well to right-handed bats. He absolutely has the raw stuff to be a late-inning reliever, and while his command has failed him at the big league level, it’s nice that his raw stuff is way, way above some of the more traditional situational relievers on the market. This is not Marc Rzepczynski; if everything breaks right, he could be more than a situational reliever in a year or two.
That’s good, because while his platoon splits scream “situational righty” the peripherals are a bit weirder. Lefties have torched him, hitting a combined .279/.380/.461 against him, and it’s even worse this year. Meanwhile, righties have a career OBP under .300 against him. Sounds great, right? Well…I’m not so sure. In his career, *every pitch he throws* has a lower whiff rate against righties than lefties. As a result, his K% is better against lefties. He keeps the ball in the ballpark against righties, to be fair, but BABIP is doing a ton of work in those raw platoon slash lines. How can that be, for a plus velo (it’s not plus plus anymore) righty whose primary breaking ball is a slider?
Well, for one thing, his fastballs have almost perfectly average movement. He has a solid spin rate, but something’s not working in translating that into spin efficiency. I’d say there may be a deception thing with righties, but then you’d expect them to miss the ball more than they do (this brings to mind his old teammate Jordan Hicks’ weird mismatch between raw stuff and K% earlier this year). His slider in particular would have to grade pretty poorly against righties, as they simply don’t swing and miss at it as much as other same-handed sliders. It gets grounders, and that’s worth something, but it’s not the kind of putaway pitch you’d typically want from a situational reliever. Luke Gregerson he’s not.
I said it on twitter and I’ll reiterate it here: for this to really make sense, they can’t be thinking about “developing” Tuivailala. The M’s are in a playoff race *today*, and Tuivailala lacks options in any case. If this works out, it’ll be because the M’s have already identified something in his delivery that they can tweak and improve. In his career, Tuivailala’s been a near replacement-level RP, which is why he’s bounced up and down between the majors and AAA. The M’s do not need a ~ replacement-level RP, no matter what kind of potential he’s got. Thus, they need to know what they’re going to do and that that intervention has a good chance of succeeding. What are some of those potential changes?
Right now, Tuivailala throws a sinker and four-seam fastball. He’d been primarily a four-seam guy until this year, when he’s shifted to throwing the sinker more. He’s also reduced his overall FB usage from ~60% in 2016 to the low 50s now. The M’s could simply amp that trend up and have him throw a ton of sliders and his slurvy curveball to righties, using him to avoid lefty match-ups, and putting him in when they need a grounder from a righty. That’s easiest, but I’m not sure it’ll get them a whole lot. The bigger lift would be to drop his arm angle, both to try to get back some of the 1-2 MPH he’s lost since 2015, and to increase the horizontal movement on the pitch. Not only that, but with some hard work, it could help make his delivery a bit tougher to pick up. Clearly, righties are getting a better look at the ball than they “should,” and the M’s should probably work on that. Third, his “Effective velocity” isn’t great – he doesn’t have a long stride that shortens the reaction time hitters have. Fourth, and perhaps most intriguingly, they could work on his slider. The M’s has success changing Marco Gonzales’ curve, which is a big reason he’s throwing it so much more (as JY mentioned). When he came up, it had a noticeably lower release point than his FB. The Cards have largely fixed that, but adjusting the shape of the pitch (which may come with a release point drop), could help disguise it and produce more whiffs.
JY’s have you the run-down in Elledge, but as in any truly fair trade, losing him hurts. He’s got great numbers, has shown the ability to work more than a single inning, and the scouting reports are great. You can’t get a guy with Tuivailala’s promise for a C prospect, and thus the M’s are sending over probably their top RP prospect.
Today, the M’s face familiar for Andrew Heaney in Anaheim as the red hot A’s travel to Colorado.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Heredia, CF
SP: LeBlanc
A Not-So-Quick Thought on Tuivailala
As is fairly “known” at this point, the Mariners made a trade to bolster their bullpen corps today in acquiring yet another Cardinal, this time RHP Sam Tuivailala in exchange for Modesto RHP Seth Elledge. Very often, I find myself responding in reflexive ways to these trades, preferring what devils I do know instead of the devils I don’t (even if Tampa is now… nevermind). I know stuff about Seth Elledge. I know that his velocity rebounded and that in the scattered mid-season prospect list updates you can find now at your own peril, some have locked Elledge into the back of the top ten as a guy who might contribute to the bullpen next year, just as Festa did this year. I don’t pay much heed to the rest of baseball and certainly not the NL, so Tuivailala is not a guy I’m familiar with and the unknown is threatening to me. My kneejerk here would be to tell you how bad this is and that we’re giving away a minor leaguer of some potential for a team-controlled upgrade who will yield merely marginal gains.
I have also learned from years of doing this that my initial reactions can be very wrong. I was filled with righteous anger about trading Tyler O’Neill for Marco Gonzales because I loved Tank for his stupid home runs and Gonzales was just some Zag who was coming off TJ and had no options left, just as Tuivailala has no options now. Nevertheless, the front office saw something in there that they were able to work with and I don’t think any one of us would complain about the trade at this moment. In Gonzales, they saw some good, some question marks, and believed that they could get more out of him than the Cardinals had, major injury aside.
I’m not going to pretend that I’m among the more numerically savvy posters out there, but I know what tools are out there and I can usually find some practical use for them. That in mind, let’s pop over to Fangraphs and check out Marco Gonzales for his 30+ innings in 2014, his 30+ innings with the Mariners last year, and now. Immediately, certain things start to pop out to us. Marco’s FB usage was consistently four-seam and above 50%, sometimes approaching 60%, but it’s never been a good offering for him. The 2014 season netted him a -1.7 wFB, and last year, -6.0 while in Seattle. The Mariners this season have had him all but jettison the four-seam as an offering, dropping it to a 10% usage with the other 40+ points of difference being split between cutters and sinkers. The weaker four-seam is barely used whereas the more useful two-seams have taken precedence and effectively changed the x- and y-axes for the batters he faces. Additionally, whereas the Cardinals never had Gonzales throw a curve more than 10% of the time, he’s now using it almost every fourth pitch this season. It had never been even a good pitch before, granted, but he’s throwing it a bit harder now and it’s turned into a plus offering, even as something he really picked up late in his development.
Or let’s consider another formerly variable-but-flashy pitcher in James Paxton, the last two years versus his previous, less ace-y incarnation. One of the things that jumps out immediately is that Pax had been throwing the change-up about 10% of the time despite its being the only pitch in his arsenal with a negative career value. Last year, usage dropped to 2.9% and this season it’s all but disappeared. What risks it presented as a rather perfunctory offering have been minimized. To compensate, those gaps have been filled in by curveballs, sinkers, and cutters, all pitches that have netted positive for him. The distribution doesn’t exactly trend cleanly in one direction or the other as far as preference, but ditching the change-up has been huge for his recent success.
Now, let us consider Sam Tuivailala, honing in on the last two years of 30+ innings since anything before that is trifling to work with. The past couple of years, Tuivailala averaged about 60% on total FB usage, while going a bit back and forth as to whether the slider (18.5% -> 24.9%) or the curveball (19.4% -> 16.4%) was a more preferable breaking ball. The Cardinals have gotten some positive value out of the curve this year, but historically, it’s never previously been a positive contributor. Could the Mariners perhaps get him throwing a better one? Indeed they could, if Gonzales is an indicator. That’s one Possible Option.
Another would be to scrap it and distribute the usage elsewhere. What’s tricky about that approach is that we can look at his 2017 season and it’s apparent that his fastball and slider were good pitches for him and the curve dragged him down. That season, his four-seams were used 46.4% of the time, sinker 15.4%, and the slider 18.5% of the time. None of those pitches has been as valuable on its own this season, while we’ve seen the curve look okay for the first time, but it’s notable that the distribution is completely different. He only uses a straight four-seam about a quarter of the time now, the sinker is now being used a third of the time, and the slider almost a quarter as well. This selection hasn’t worked at all in terms of the results for the fastball and slider. Thus, the second Possible Option would be to go back to that plus-velocity four-seam more often while using the slider and sinker as pitch #2a and pitch #2b, absorbing what had been the curveball’s usage until it’s more of a show-me pitch. In either case, keep him away from left-handers until he figures it out.
What will happen? The Mariners are newly into these types of analysis and it appears that they’ve picked up on something that they like. If you buy into the curve’s development, maybe you trust it a little more and try to refine it, or you could get him to throw four-seams more, or you could do both and keep the sinker as a weapon used more sparingly. In any case, just because the Cardinals used him one way doesn’t lock the Mariners into the same patterns. There’s a chance that some real value could come out of some adjustments of usage, just as we’ve seen from other pitchers of the Dipoto era.
Game 102, Giants at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Derek Holland, 1:10pm – This game isn’t on TV; it’s one of those odd Facebook-only deals.
The M’s close out this short two-game set with San Francisco today with an early game. I, like many of you I suspect, won’t be able to watch it, so hopefully it’s a boring, never-in-doubt win without real standout performances. After last night, I think we’d all take a plain vanilla win without much in the way of drama.
This should probably go without saying, but if I didn’t say it, I’d lose one of my leitmotifs here on the blog: pitchers are completely amazing, and are capable of reinventing themselves. We’ve all seen this, we all know this, but it’s worth repeating. Yes, medical care has helped extend careers, giving pitchers the opportunity to change. Advances in training have essentially tossed out what we’d learned from standard, league-wide aging curves. And great coaching does this frequently – there’s a reason we know the names of several pitching coaches, just as we learned Leo Mazzone’s name 20 years ago. I think one of the reasons this resonates with me is that I think sabermetrics may have obscured this fact more than it illuminated it. Regression towards the mean is a hugely important tool with which to examine the game, and it’s true: not every great game or two-week stretch is indicative of an entirely new level of talent. But within the parameters of their natural ability, pitchers are always in the process of becoming something different. If you’re not changing, you’re either one of the game’s truly elite talents (and even they’re still tinkering, I’d suppose), or you’re going to get exposed pretty soon.
Sam Gaviglio, SAM FREAKING GAVIGLIO, has a K/9 that’s nearly the equal of David Price’s. Both start today, so they could flip-flop depending on how each performs. By K%, Price’s lead is more solid, but did I mention we’re talking about SAM GAVIGLIO? Gaviglio never posted a K% over 20% in the M’s minor leagues, and when he came up to the M’s and then the Royals, his K% was under 16%. That’s not a knock on Sam – it’s just who he was. Command/control lefty. Throws 88. No big-time breaking ball or change-up. Keeps you in the game if he can keep the ball in the park, nothing flashy. THAT guy is now striking out basically a batter an inning at the major league level, and has a K% quite close to league average, so he has an *above-average K%* for a starting pitcher. Literally Sam Gaviglio!
Charlie Morton’s starting for Houston. The guy who had a long career in Pittsburgh despite a K% that was generally below 15%, and *always* below 20%. Threw 92-93, with a decent enough curve, but didn’t miss a ton of bats. Lots of grounders, so maybe an oft-injured Mike Leake, or something in that vein. As you know, Morton now throws 97, has a K% over 30%, and is striking out about 12 per 9. Same guy, yet completely unrecognizable.
I mentioned James Shields the other day, but he’s starting again and I’m reminded again of how impressive his career-saving adjustments have been. No, it’s not made him into a star again, but after last year, I legitimately thought he was done, and that he’d either go overseas or be a AAA vagabond this year. He’s fighting MLB to a draw in Chicago instead.
I bring all of this up because one of his teammates from last year’s pulled the same trick. Derek Holland was worth nearly -1 fWAR thanks to a Shields-like HR/9 of 2.07 over 135 putrid innings. The oft-injured Holland didn’t make it to 40 IP in 2014, and was under 60 the next year. He barely passed 100 IP in 2016, but with his K% in free-fall and his extension drawing to a close, there was no way he’d be back. He signed a 1-year deal with Chicago that I think both parties would love to hit the do-over button on, as Holland’s fastball/sinker/slider/curve mix just never fit well in the homer-charged modern game and the homer-charged ballpark on the south side.
This isn’t to say Holland was changing things up. He was – look at the bottom (yellow) lines in this chart. That’s his curveball, the one that started out as a 12-6 offering at around 75 MPH or so.
In the past few years, his curve has been creeping up towards 80 MPH, and the movement on it is very different too. In fact, I think it’s no longer any kind of curve at all – it’s now a slider; it’s a different look, a slight wrinkle on his “old” slider. The horizontal movement on the pitch is almost identical to his old slider, and it’s within a few MPH in velocity. It no longer drops below 0 in vertical movement, and it no longer has any gloveside movement.
So how’s that working out for him? In 2017, not so hot. It was his worst pitch by a mile, as he gave up 13 HRs off of it, good for a SLG%-against of .720. He’s throwing it just as often this year, and it’s sliiiightly more slider like this year, and the results have been completely different. His SLG%-against on it is .321. Derek Holland – DEREK HOLLAND – now has 105 strikeouts in 102 innings. Yes, yes, national league, and spacious ballparks like his new home in SF, and context and the general decline in HRs, etc. I get all of that. But Derek Holland looked like he was headed out of the league. He signed a 1-year deal for less than $2 M, which, depending on your definition, would make him freely-available or kinda sorta replacement level. He’s got a career high in K% and K-BB%.
Like everyone else, he’s throwing a lot fewer FBs than he used to. That approach only works, though, when batters aren’t teeing off on your secondaries. I’m not exactly sure what he’s done to disguise his slurve better, but whatever it is, it’s working. You could project him using his career averages, or his recent year averages, and see a replacement-level pitcher. He’s not exactly like Morton, where everyone can see something fundamental has changed. But the point is that regressing to the mean works great on the overall population. With individuals, true talent is always in flux – you’re regressing towards a moving target. On average, using career numbers works best. It’s often the best way to see what individuals will do going forward, but it can just as often lead you astray. Jon Lester starts today for the Cubs. In his Boston heyday, Lester used to average 50%+ ground balls. It’s one of the attributes that made him successful. With the Cubs, that mark has been falling, and this year it stands at 38%. He’s having a good year (though not by FIP, perhaps). Would you project his GB% to head back towards, say, 46.5%, which is his career average? High five if you replied, “no.”
This is not a veiled shot at Mike Leake, one of the most stable pitchers I’ve ever seen. Leake isn’t flashy, but there’s plenty of value in a standard Mike Leake season, and standard Mike Leake seasons are pretty much his stock in trade. No, there’s another Mariner hurler who could stand to really work on a mid-career reinvention. A guy who’s reinvented himself already, but needs to go further, and faster. Felix owes us nothing. If he retired tomorrow, I would laud an amazingly successful career, and I’d put my kids in their Felix #34 shirseys and tell Felix stories to them for hours. He’s given all of us more than we ever could’ve hoped. But he’s capable of writing some new stories for us to tell, and he’s capable of giving a boost to a club who could use one right about now. I’m not completely convinced the M’s are the best organization to foster and encourage such a transformation, but it’s the only org he’s ever known, and it’s worth a shot.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Span, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Leake
Tacoma’s in Round Rock tonight, where they’ll face off against former Rainier/Mariner Adrian Sampson. Erasmo Ramirez makes another rehab start for the R’s.
Other probables in the system include Anthony Misiewicz, Nick Wells, Ryne Inman, and Jheyson Caraballo.
Round Rock jumped on Christian Bergman early in a 7-2 win last night, while Foster Griffin and NW Arkansas blanked Arkansas 4-0 in Game 1 of their double-header. Arkansas won the 2nd game 8-1, getting a HR from OF Chuck Taylor. Modesto edged Stockton 5-4 on a walk-off single by Beau Branton in the bottom of the 9th. Branton, the ex-Stanford 2B drafted in the 28th round this year, now has 38 hits in 25 career pro games between the AZL and Cal League. Vancouver scored 2 in the 7th to come back and beat Everett 4-3. Orlando Razo was solid for 6 IP for the AquaSox.
Game 101, Giants at Mariners
James Paxton Roenis Elias vs. Andrew Suarez, 7:10pm
The Giants come to Safeco for a brief visit, fresh off some annoying near-misses against the A’s. The A’s, by the way, closed to within 2.5 games with a drubbing of the Rangers last night that saw two position players out-pitch Alex Claudio, so…yeah. Happy Maple Day.
Andrew Suarez is a rookie who’s been remarkably solid – a solid K%, a GB% of over 52%, not too many walks. His FIP reflects all this, and while his ERA’s under 4, it lags his FIP thanks to a high BABIP and some real problems with men on base. Suarez seems to have taken a step forward, as he was seen as a classic lefty command/control guy, but he seems to be offer a bit more than that. A lefty, he’s averaged 93+ on his fastball, which isn’t too bad at all, even in 2018. The movement on it looks pretty normal, and I suppose the outcomes on it are too, but given Suarez’s high 3/4 release point, it gets less rise than you might imagine. Initially, I thought he might be adding a bit of cut to it, but per Statcast at least, he’s just a very low-spin FB guy. Compared to Paxton, Suarez’s fastball spins a lot less, even if their vertical rise/movement ends up in the same general neighborhood.
Suarez also throws a slider, a change, and a curve, as well as a sinker. I wondered if, given his low spin-rate FB, he’d also show really low spin rates on his breaking balls. Instead, it turns out that he’s more or less completely average in spin rate on his breakers. He’s not the inverse of Garrett Richards (ultra-high spin rates on everything he throws), he goes pitch by pitch – low here, normal here. You know who else does that? Here’s the leaderboard on curveball spin – a familiar face comes dead last. Yes, James Paxton’s transformed his fastball from being a low-spin offering to above average. Meanwhile, his curveball – which has been remarkably low spin for years – remains remarkably spinless.
For a team that very intentionally tweaked Marco Gonzales’ yakker (to add spin, to be clear), I think this must be intentional. As he gets away from the 70%-fastball usage pattern that typified his first few years in the majors, he’s throwing more curves than ever. Yes, even though he’s throwing a cutter – a pitch he didn’t throw in, say, 2013 – he’s still throwing curves more frequently because he’s not just tossing FBs in there. Paxton’s curve fares pretty well in whiff rate, and it gets grounders, too. It’s not quite Blake Snell’s or even Charlie Morton’s (two high-spin guys), but there are some other pretty effective curves at low spin rates – when healthy, Drew Pomeranz is a good example, as is Archie Bradley’s.
Paxton’s been effective with a high-spin FB and a very low-spin curve, which just highlights the fact that when he’s healthy, he…excuse me…just getting some late breaking news here at USSM HQ…take it away, Greg Johns:
James Paxton will not be coming off the DL tonight. Roenis Elias instead getting the spot start.
— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) July 24, 2018
Greaaaat. That’s fantastic. Roenis Elias’ curveball used to have well above-average spin rates (nothing in the Seth Lugo/Garrett Richards tier, though), but it’s actually dropped noticeably this year. It’s now a completely different pitch, with plenty of vertical drop, suggesting he’s more efficient with that reduced spin. I’d talk more about what exactly I’d look for, or about his results on the curve, but I’m a bit spooked by this Paxton news. Colin O’Keefe says that it’s nothing serious, and that Jerry Dipoto talks about on today’s Wheelhouse Podcast. Doesn’t sound like it’s time to panic, but it’s just a pattern we’ve seen with Pax before… fingers crossed.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Span, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Paxton
MLB announced its Heart and Hustle award winners on each team yesterday, because nothing shows hustle like announcing a seasonal award before the season ends. The M’s winner? Guillermo Heredia, which is nice, but likely won’t get him his starting job back, but he’s in there tonight against the lefty Suarez.
NW Arkansas scored a couple of runs late to beat Arkansas 4-2 last night. Modesto scored *6* runs late, though, to come back to beat Rancho Cucamonga 8-6 – Gareth Morgan and Nick Zammarelli homered for the Nuts. Fort Wayne beat Clinton 4-2, and Boise beat Everett 11-10. Starting in the system tonight are Christian Bergman, Williams Perez and Spencer Herrman (it’s a AA double-header), Reggie McClain, and Orlando Razo. Everett won the divisional first-half title, so they’re in the NWL playoffs. Arkansas, too, has qualified for the playoffs. Modesto…will not qualify. Tacoma’s close-ish at 7 games back, and Clinton’s had a great overall season, but is still on the outside looking in. There’s a month+ to change things, however.
So…You Want A Situational Reliever?
The M’s have talked publicly about what they want at the deadline this year, and just in case no one got it, Jerry Dipoto reiterated it at the Baseball Prospects night on Saturday. They’re not looking at starters, no matter how well-reasoned by article on that market may (or may not) have been. Instead, with some SP depth, they can limit innings both by moving to a 6-man rotation AND by shortening the games on the back end. Dipoto stated that they’re fine at the end of games, with Edwin Diaz dominating in the 9th, and with Alex Colome…uh…handling the 8th (he’s put up -0.1 fWAR thus far with the M’s which is obviously a ludicrously small sample, but it’s not great to see a negative sign there). Now, they want wipe-out relievers that can come in and handle the 6th/7th innings. They don’t need length out of them, and they don’t need guys who can go multiple innings – they want the situational excellence they thought they were getting from Marc Rzepczinski. Are any situational relievers avaiable in the M’s price range? I’m glad you asked, narrative device!
Righties:
1: The Name-Brand Option
The Marlins are out of it. They’re out of it in a division with two teams loaded with young talent who’ve arrived a bit earlier than expected in Philadelphia and Atlanta. The Nationals are still ever-frustrating, and may look quite different in a year, but they give three really solid competitors, and all of them feature current 40-man rosters that simply outclass Miami’s. There’s a reason why so many of these options currently toil there, is what I’m saying. There’s no real need for the Marlins to hold situational relievers, or shut-down relievers of any stripe, at this point in their development. They need to see if they’re able to develop starters and position players to fill the yawning chasm left by the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna. This isn’t about trying to slash payroll, though I’m sure the Marlins ownership would love that. Rather, it’s about providing some opportunities for players who could conceivably be a part of the next good Marlins team.
Perhaps no one is more miscast on the Marlins than righty Brad Ziegler. Ziegler, the side-arming GB specialist, signed a 2-year, $16 M contract last year, and it expires at the end of 2018. The M’s can easily afford a fraction of $8 M for the rest of the year, and he gives them a very different look than, say, Nick Vincent. I’ve always thought a bullpen needs someone who can come in when a double play ball is in order, and Ziegler’s 73%+ GB% this year would do the trick. In his long career, he’s getting grounders from 2/3 of the batters who put it in play.
Why this makes sense for the M’s: In Ziegler, the M’s would acquire a righty who’s been tough on same-handed bats for a decade, and someone with nearly unparalleled grounder tendencies. If you want “proven” – whatever that phrase means for a reliever – Ziegler is it.
Why this makes sense for the Marlins: Ziegler’s making $8 M this year, and has next to no real utility for them in August/September. His innings could be reallocated to youngsters like Drew Rucinski or Ben Meyer. At this stage, they can’t really expect anything back in terms of talent (low-level lottery ticket), but it would still make sense for everyone.
Why this might give you pause: You know who had a decade-long track record of being tough on same-handed bats? You know who had an amazing GB%? Marc Rzepczynski, that’s who. Also, Ziegler hasn’t been a true shut-down guy against righties this year. He’s been worth -0.5 fWAR – most of that damage has come against lefties, but he’s still giving up a .300 wOBA v. righties, which isn’t exactly what you want from a market-rate ROOGY.
2: The Lesser-Known, Hipster Option
No one in baseball’s induced a higher GB% against right-handed bats this year than one Kevin McCarthy, 26-year old ROOGY for the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are in bad shape right now, but they at least have the lingering memories of their World Series win in 2015 to help them through what may be a painful rebuild. The thing is, most of the hard stuff’s already done – Hosmer followed Dave Cameron to San Diego, Lorenzo Cain’s in Milwaukee – and so it’ll probably be easier for the FO to move guys like Whit Merrifield and, uh, everyone else. McCarthy is a righty reliever who doesn’t miss bats, which is why he could be available. He’s cost controlled for a while, though he’s also the kind of guy who would never command a huge salary given his skillset. But hey, the Royals are interested in Ryon Healy, so I’m sure both teams have already spoken.
McCarthy’s sinker runs just shy of 93, and has solid but not truly remarkable armside run. He pairs it with a change (as well as a slurvy curveball and a tighter slider), which is interesting for a ROOGY. To date, he has not figured out lefties *at all* so again, his ceiling’s quite limited. His change is effective against all hitters, but his fastball is the real story, as lefties apparently get a long look at the pitch and can elevate it. He’s got whatever the opposite of deception is – really debilitating candor, or something.
Why this makes sense for the Mariners: McCarthy does most of what Ziegler does, and he wouldn’t be a rental. If you’re one of the old heads who misses a Sean Green type, well, McCarthy is…not exactly like that, but a 10:1 GB:FB ratio vs. righties could be huge in a bases-loaded, 1-out scenario. I wouldn’t do this for Healy straight up, but if they’re interested in Healy, then make sure we get McCarthy as part of the package coming back.
Why this makes sense for the Royals: Like the Marlins, the Royals simply don’t need situational relievers, and while I’m sure the Royals could build around cost-controlled young players, no one builds around low-K situational relievers. You either need one now or you don’t.
Why this might give you pause: Ziegler’s been around enough to be able to at least fight lefties to a draw. McCarthy’s pretty much sunk if the opposing manager pinch hits, which limits his effectiveness. If you’re targeting big spots in the 6th inning, it could work, but there’s the possibility of a crippling HR to a lefty, or a bunch of intentional walks in his future. The lack of real bat-missing ability is a red flag, too.
3: The Closer-type
Keone Kela, of Highline/Chief Sealth and then Everett Community College, is currently the Rangers closer. He’ll draw plenty of attention as the go-nowhere Rangers retool for another run in a few years. He’s in his first arb year this year, so he’ll get sizable raises over the next few years. Importantly for the M’s, he’s absolute death on a stick against righties, thanks to a fastball/curve combo that’s tough for righties to pick up. In his career, righties are hitting .184 and slugging .276 on his slurvy curveball. He’s a perfectly fine closer for now, but I think he’d be even better as a righty-focused set-up man.
If the fit works well (I’d actually rather have him where Colome’s slotted in now) in terms of role, I’m less sanguine about the fit in trade. The Rangers may get a decent prospect or two for Kela, who’s still cost controlled, and who has the all-important closer tag on him. For a guy with apparent attitude issues for a while, Kela seems to have done well in the closer’s role, though of course the Rangers are about as far from a playoff race as you could get.
Why this makes sense for the Mariners: Kela offers exactly what you want in a righty specialist. He’s got premium velocity and a great breaking ball that righties seemingly can’t quite pick up. He’s fine against lefties, too, so you don’t have to remove him if the opposing manager pinch hits. All in all, he’s better than Alex Colome, so clearly he’d be a great pick-up for the M’s. His price may come down as a result of his recent DL stint with shoulder soreness.
Why this makes sense for the Rangers: The Rangers have already made it clear they’d like to move him, as no team except possibly Miami needs a closer less than Texas. He’ll draw plenty of interest, and should net a solid prospect or two. Dan Vogelbach won’t get it done here, so the M’s are going to need to send over several near-MLB players, and frankly, they don’t have a ton to offer.
Why this might give you pause: Kela’s going to command more in trade than anyone on this list, and has struggled with control at times. Two years ago, he collapsed to a replacement-level season, with an ERA over 6, the product of too many HRs. Since that time, he’s limited dingers remarkably well, but the other side of that coin is that his HR/FB luck could run out at any point. Also: shoulder soreness.
Lefties:
4: High K Potential Relief Ace
Adam Conley, a local kid out of Olympia HS and Wazzu, threw 300 big league innings as a starter. The first 200 were quite good, but the last 100 got him demoted to the minors, and then saw him lose his starting role. He’s worked out of the minors most of the year, but has come up to throw 26+ innings as a reliever, where the Marlins hoped his stuff might play up. It has. Conley’s sinking, running fastball now averages 95+, and with 10″ of armside run, it looks like a true weapon out of the pen. Even better for Conley, it’s made it hard for lefties to elevate. He’s got completely different batted ball profiles against lefties and righties, with lefties pounding the ball into the ground, and righties hitting the occasional fly ball on those rare occasions they don’t strike out.
Unlike the others on this list, Conley isn’t really a true situational guy. He’s just new to relief work, and as of right now, he’s actually fared better against righties. But with that FB boring in on the hands of lefties, and with the makings of a decent slider, there’s no real reason he couldn’t dominate lefties. The problem, such as it is, is that his change-up’s ahead of the slider right now, so he’s striking out righties instead. I can’t speak for Jerry Dipoto, but personally, I’m ok with that.
Why this makes sense for the Mariners: Conley is under team control for three years, costs virtually nothing this season, and looks for all the world like a break-out reliever. Tweaks to his breaking ball akin to the tweaks they made to Marco Gonzales’ should make him even more effective.
Why this makes sense for the Marlins: Conley is now 28, and hits arbitration for the first time next year, meaning he’s due for a big raise. That’s awesome – he’s earned it. He doesn’t have a long track record as a reliever, so he won’t command a ton in trade, but as a guy with three years of arb coming up, the Marlins may decide they’d rather sell high and give those innings to pre-arb players. If that’s what they want to do, the M’s should make a move and happily pay Conley a slightly-higher fraction of what he’s owed.
Why this might give you pause: Conley would cost more than Ziegler in terms of talent. If the Marlins want a legitimate prospect, I can see some wondering if it’s worth it for a non-late-inning reliever. There’s also much less of a track record here. Righties used to hit him fairly hard, and he’s *never* posted decent K rates against lefties. If you want a shut-down guy against same-handed hitters, Conley both might cost too much and do too little. He’s great, but it may just not be the right fit.
5: The classic LOOGY
Alex Claudio is Keone Kela’s teammate with the Rangers right now, and like Conley, he’ll hit arbitration next year. He lacks the velocity and raw stuff of his teammate/fellow lefty Jake Diekman, but he makes up for it in deception and GB tendencies. With a sidearm delivery and a sinker with tons of armside run, Claudio has a GB% over 60%. His slider has loads of horizontal movement, making it a great weapon against lefties. I’d liken his stuff to watching Carson Smith (or Diekman) in slo-mo – it’s doing the same sort of thing, it’s just doing it 10 MPH slower.
Claudio’s been bitten by BABIP this year, and has never really been a swing-and-miss pitcher, even against lefties. That’s largely due to the fact that the slider that has all of that break has been his third pitch. His main secondary pitch is a weird change-up thrown very slow, at around 71. It’s weird because despite its low velo, it actually has *less* sink than his, uh, sinker. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything like that, actually. The M’s could work with him on his slider to be even better against lefties, but even if nothing changes, he’d be a solid option with men on and a lefty at the plate, as he induces tons of grounders against them.
Why this makes sense for the M’s: Claudio gets tons of grounders and lefties have a .204 OBP against him in his career. From a pure results standpoint, Claudio checks the boxes: he gets lefties out, and he doesn’t walk people.
Why this makes sense for the Rangers: I’m mentioned before that a rebuilding team doesn’t really need LOOGYs, but the Rangers actually have two left-handed relievers on the market. Diekman’s better overall, especially as puts his major surgery behind him (he had his colon removed in 2017), and Claudio’s escalating contract may not be as attractive to the Rangers as it would be to the M’s. Even in arb, Claudio’s not going to break the bank. The Rangers should be happy with cost-controlled relievers coming back, and the M’s have plenty to offer.
Why this might give you pause: As funky as his change-up is, it’s not a great bat-missing pitch, and his overall results are down this year. In 2018, the league average reliever strikes out a batter an inning. Even in a specialist role, Claudio will never come close to that, and thus may not be the kind of specialist the M’s really want.
Shane Greene’s now out with shoulder discomfort, Tony Barnette was shut down a while ago with the same problem, so they’re not viable candidates. Zach Britton probably *is*, but as an absolutely dominant former closer coming off of injury, I think he may not quite fit with Seattle. Not only has he not been linked to them in public reports, his stuff’s not quite what it used to be. Britton will help someone, but I doubt it’ll be the M’s. That’s fine, as I’ve shown there are quite a few players who might fit the M’s needs, depending on how you define situational reliever. What would you give up for a 6th-7th inning specialist? How much does that willingness to trade change with the M’s current spot in the race, and how much does club control matter to you?
Game 100 – White Sox at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Reynaldo Lopez, 1:10pm
Last night featured a great discussion with some of my favorite baseball writers, Jerry Dipoto and John Choiniere from the M’s front office talking about their process, some very encouraging innings from Félix, and ultimately a mostly-gross 5-0 loss. It’s nice that good company and a good pace-of-game can overcome a total lack of offense and one poor inning from Felix. I’m trying to avoid the soft bigotry of low expectations in re: El Cartelua, but I honestly think he outpitched his line. He got swings and misses, his change-up looked (from my vantage point high in the 300 level) to have bite/sink, and I thought he generally targeted the weakness of a free-swinging line-up. He also gave up 4 runs in 5, and that was essentially that.
That was that in large part because Dylan Covey, of all people, was nearly unhittable. Before the game, and spurred on by a fan question, reiterated his belief that while strikeouts-plus-grounders is essentially the best possible skillset for pitchers, economic reality pushed the M’s in a different direction. They couldn’t afford guys like that, so they picked up strikethrowers instead, and tried to build a great defense around them that would mitigate the downside of allowing a ton of contact and elevated contact. Dylan Covey is an interesting sort of counter to that strategy. That is, even assuming you can’t just go pick up a peak-Félix or Aaron Nola or whoever in free agency, you *can* find people with skills that lend themselves to high-K, high-GB outcomes. They just come with a bunch of other problems. In Covey’s case, it was a complete lack of control and command. But the White Sox saw that he threw a sinker really hard, and had the workings of a decent slider. Sure, he didn’t know where either was going, and even in a best-case scenario, he’s probably going to struggle with lefties, but his selection in Rule 5 was a bet on their ability to coach him up – to keep his positive attributes while they sanded down his rough edges. By and large, this hasn’t worked; it’s a microcosm of the White Sox massive rebuild – an interesting idea, well-executed at times, that ultimately still looks pretty shitty when viewed from the outside. I don’t know enough about Covey to know if he’s in their long-term plans, and I don’t know what they’ve done with his mechanics. But for a night, it looked pretty darn remarkable. He got grounders *and* a lot of weakly hit pop-ups. That’s a pretty neat trick, even if it was annoying to watch it work against the M’s.
Today, Marco Gonzales makes his first start of the second half. Marco and Mitch Haniger are the two feathers in the cap for this FO, and they’ve earned the right to gloat a bit about it, and Jerry subtly, charmingly, took that opportunity before last night’s game. They talked a bit about changing/refining his curve, which is quite clearly a much different pitch than it was when he was a Cardinal. I had no idea if the new, better, curve was one of the things that attracted them to Gonzo last year, or if it was the product of their coaching – now it seems we have our answer. And honestly, that’s the answer I was hoping for. The M’s need to maximize the ability of all of their players, and the process that went into Marco’s improved curve is something that gives me a bit of hope for the M’s future. Just listening to how they incorporate data (including from third-party providers), make decisions, and then talk with on-the-ground coaches like Brian DeLuna, was fascinating and it’s something to build on. Jerry mentioned Marco’s intelligence as a key reason he was able to make the change so quickly, but I hope they’re able to do more of this.
Reynaldo Lopez was one of the big-name prospects the Sox got when they traded cheap/controlled OF Adam Eaton a year or two ago, and he’s been the brightest light in a dark, dark season for them. The 24 year old throws a 96MPH fastball and backs it up with a change at around 84, a slider at 84-85, and a curve ball at 77. The change-up seems to be his favorite weapon, but purely from a movement point of view, it looks pretty marginal to me. The curve seems to be a work in process, but his slider’s been a decent enough pitch this year. Like Covey, his actual strikeouts lag his stuff, and without Covey’s weird low-spin fastball, Lopez won’t rack up as many ground balls (he’s been an extreme fly ball guy, in fact). But he’s relied on his FB to get mostly weak contact, and if he can develop either his curve or change, the Sox would definitely have something. As it stands, he’s not getting chase-swings, he’s walking a few too many, and he’s getting by with a low BABIP, but you can clearly see why he was such a big prospect.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Span, LF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Gonzales
As you can see, Mike Zunino’s been recalled from AAA, with David Freitas heading back to Tacoma. Guillermo Heredia is back in at CF – against a righty – to give Ben Gamel a break and because Lopez doesn’t have such extreme splits.
It was something of a bleak night in the system last night, as Tacoma lost to Salt Lake 2-1 in 10 IP, Springfield beat up on Arkansas 13-7, Modesto got blasted 11-5 by Rancho Cucamonga, Boise blanked Everett 9-0, and the AZL M’s lost to the AZL Padres. But hey, the DSL M’s picked up a win.