Game 101, Giants at Mariners
James Paxton Roenis Elias vs. Andrew Suarez, 7:10pm
The Giants come to Safeco for a brief visit, fresh off some annoying near-misses against the A’s. The A’s, by the way, closed to within 2.5 games with a drubbing of the Rangers last night that saw two position players out-pitch Alex Claudio, so…yeah. Happy Maple Day.
Andrew Suarez is a rookie who’s been remarkably solid – a solid K%, a GB% of over 52%, not too many walks. His FIP reflects all this, and while his ERA’s under 4, it lags his FIP thanks to a high BABIP and some real problems with men on base. Suarez seems to have taken a step forward, as he was seen as a classic lefty command/control guy, but he seems to be offer a bit more than that. A lefty, he’s averaged 93+ on his fastball, which isn’t too bad at all, even in 2018. The movement on it looks pretty normal, and I suppose the outcomes on it are too, but given Suarez’s high 3/4 release point, it gets less rise than you might imagine. Initially, I thought he might be adding a bit of cut to it, but per Statcast at least, he’s just a very low-spin FB guy. Compared to Paxton, Suarez’s fastball spins a lot less, even if their vertical rise/movement ends up in the same general neighborhood.
Suarez also throws a slider, a change, and a curve, as well as a sinker. I wondered if, given his low spin-rate FB, he’d also show really low spin rates on his breaking balls. Instead, it turns out that he’s more or less completely average in spin rate on his breakers. He’s not the inverse of Garrett Richards (ultra-high spin rates on everything he throws), he goes pitch by pitch – low here, normal here. You know who else does that? Here’s the leaderboard on curveball spin – a familiar face comes dead last. Yes, James Paxton’s transformed his fastball from being a low-spin offering to above average. Meanwhile, his curveball – which has been remarkably low spin for years – remains remarkably spinless.
For a team that very intentionally tweaked Marco Gonzales’ yakker (to add spin, to be clear), I think this must be intentional. As he gets away from the 70%-fastball usage pattern that typified his first few years in the majors, he’s throwing more curves than ever. Yes, even though he’s throwing a cutter – a pitch he didn’t throw in, say, 2013 – he’s still throwing curves more frequently because he’s not just tossing FBs in there. Paxton’s curve fares pretty well in whiff rate, and it gets grounders, too. It’s not quite Blake Snell’s or even Charlie Morton’s (two high-spin guys), but there are some other pretty effective curves at low spin rates – when healthy, Drew Pomeranz is a good example, as is Archie Bradley’s.
Paxton’s been effective with a high-spin FB and a very low-spin curve, which just highlights the fact that when he’s healthy, he…excuse me…just getting some late breaking news here at USSM HQ…take it away, Greg Johns:
James Paxton will not be coming off the DL tonight. Roenis Elias instead getting the spot start.
— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) July 24, 2018
Greaaaat. That’s fantastic. Roenis Elias’ curveball used to have well above-average spin rates (nothing in the Seth Lugo/Garrett Richards tier, though), but it’s actually dropped noticeably this year. It’s now a completely different pitch, with plenty of vertical drop, suggesting he’s more efficient with that reduced spin. I’d talk more about what exactly I’d look for, or about his results on the curve, but I’m a bit spooked by this Paxton news. Colin O’Keefe says that it’s nothing serious, and that Jerry Dipoto talks about on today’s Wheelhouse Podcast. Doesn’t sound like it’s time to panic, but it’s just a pattern we’ve seen with Pax before… fingers crossed.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Span, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Paxton
MLB announced its Heart and Hustle award winners on each team yesterday, because nothing shows hustle like announcing a seasonal award before the season ends. The M’s winner? Guillermo Heredia, which is nice, but likely won’t get him his starting job back, but he’s in there tonight against the lefty Suarez.
NW Arkansas scored a couple of runs late to beat Arkansas 4-2 last night. Modesto scored *6* runs late, though, to come back to beat Rancho Cucamonga 8-6 – Gareth Morgan and Nick Zammarelli homered for the Nuts. Fort Wayne beat Clinton 4-2, and Boise beat Everett 11-10. Starting in the system tonight are Christian Bergman, Williams Perez and Spencer Herrman (it’s a AA double-header), Reggie McClain, and Orlando Razo. Everett won the divisional first-half title, so they’re in the NWL playoffs. Arkansas, too, has qualified for the playoffs. Modesto…will not qualify. Tacoma’s close-ish at 7 games back, and Clinton’s had a great overall season, but is still on the outside looking in. There’s a month+ to change things, however.
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Looks like the Yankees are getting Briton.
How great would it be if the M’s (or even the A’s) face them in the wild card matchup and send them packing?
*Britton.
Whoa, Healy walked? Mark the time and place.
^His second over the last 30 days.
Well this sucks. 1.5 ahead of the A’s is NOT comfortable.