Game 114, Mariners at Rangers
King Felix vs. Bartolo Colon, 5:05pm
Happy Felix Day. Apparently, Felix did enough in his last start against the Jays to get another. I still can’t quite believe that this day-to-day, start-to-start nonsense is how the team chooses to motivate Felix freaking Hernandez.
It’s interesting – nearly the entire arc of Felix’s career, and certainly since 2007-8 or so, has been a story of declining velocity. It’s not new, it’s just that there was nowhere for his velocity to go. He arrived as a teenager touching triple digits with a four-seam fastball, and, a ton of HRs-allowed later, morphed into the guy we know and love: a sinker/change guy with a FB that settled in around 93-95, then 92-94, then 91-93, then 89-92. His Cy Young year of 2010 he averaged 95, but he was better in 2014, when he threw 93. What’s the point of this historical digression? The point isn’t that Felix never learned to deal with a slower FB; that’s literally all he’s ever done. The point is that when it dipped below 91-92 or so, it stopped being playable.
Felix’s control improved over the course of his career, and his contact management followed suit for a while. But his velocity seemed to cross some invisible line right around when the ball got juiced, and Felix hasn’t adjusted back. That’s at least *partially* on him, but it’s still interesting to me that so much of the decline in his results have come on his sinker, and in particular, against left-handed batters. Back in 2014, Felix had reverse splits, and has many times throughout his career. This isn’t a huge shock for a guy whose best pitch is a change-up of death, and one that looks a hell of a lot like his sinker. But something seemed to change in 2015 that caused lefties to start picking up that pitch much better.
Lefties slugged .423 vs. his sinker in 2014, but since then, that figure’s skyrocketed: .566 in 2015, then .588 in 2016, wayyy up to .706 last year, and .731 this year. Sure, there’s BABIP in there, and there are sample issues, and noise, etc. But you can’t survive in the majors when people are slugging 6-700 on your primary fastball. Shockingly, his change is still effective against lefties, so this isn’t a case where the lower-velo sinker is just getting mushed up with his change. He’s got a good change and an awful fastball. Using the four-seamer could help with this, and that’s what many have been saying (including Jerry Dipoto!) for a few years now.
But I want to draw to your attention just how weird it is that Felix’s SI would just die a horrible death at 90 MPH, *especially* given that his SLG-agaisnt vs. righties is under. 450 this year. Isn’t it possible that the problem here is that he’s either tipping it or that he’s lost whatever kind of deception he had just a few years ago? These are kind of “Strong” and “Weak” forms of the same argument: Felix’s FB is worse, sure, but it’s unusable in games because people are reading it. If that’s the case – and it very well might not be – the problem here isn’t with Felix. It’s using all of the wonderful technology we have to see if we can spot a tell and help him fix it. Instead of carping at him, or grudgingly giving him another start (especially with Erasmo still on the mend), give him a fix, give him an actionable thing to work on.
Look, this may be the end for Felix, and it’s entirely possible that he’s not tipping the pitch, and that lefties simply get too long a look at it in flight. There may be no well to go back to. But if I’m the M’s, and I’m now down in the wildcard, and the A’s picked up some rotation depth…I’d figure out if there wasn’t a way to make 2018 Felix the equivalent of 2018 Mike Fiers. There’s no reason Felix can’t do the high-HR, low-BB sorta-mostly good thing. And if he does, this team gets a whole lot more interesting down the the stretch.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Span, LF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Herrmann, C
8: Maybin, CF
9: Romine, SS
SP: EL CARTELUA
The struggling Jean Segura gets a day off today. Robbie Cano continued his rehab in Tacoma, singling today AND yesterday and making some plays at 1B. The Colorado SkySox beat the R’s tonight in the final game the two franchises will play. Mike Curto reports that this brought the overall series between the clubs – which dates back to 1988 – to a dead heat: both teams have won 174 and lost 174.
Game 112, Jays at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Sam Gaviglio, 1:10pm
I suppose it’s been a while since we’ve had such a crystallizing series. The parallels to 2007’s LollaBlueza against the Angels essentially write themselves. This one’s been marred by the presence of thousands of drunk/annoying Jays fans (Hosebullah?) but then, their arrival wasn’t much of a shock. It’s just that the M’s weren’t really in a position to prevent it, and let’s face it, I don’t think anyone forecast the M’s to be ~20 games over .500 when this series started.
They’re not 20 games over anymore, and the A’s, improbably, are. The A’s have stabilized their decimated rotation by adding guys like Edwin Jackson, first seen dueling peak-era Randy Johnson 15 years ago, and Frankie Montas, the hard-throwing prospect who’s now in his 4th org in the last 5 seasons. I will freely admit that the way we evaluate player development and the overall value of a front office is too often skewed by the last month or two of results. I don’t think the A’s magically “fixed” anything with Jackson, any more than the Padres did when Jackson pitched an absolute gem in the one game I’ve ever seen in Pittsburgh. Still, the contrast between the A’s getting a modicum of production from their waiver-wire crew and the M’s still chirping at Felix is…palpable. We don’t know that the M’s PD has “failed” because we/I don’t know what they’ve tried, what Felix’s reaction has been, and what alternatives they’ve explored. But again, players around the game and, pretty crucially, within the division have turned their careers around because they’ve worked hard and had the right help.
I wrote about Sam Gaviglio, ex-Mariner, in late July, as another example of a pitcher who’d seemingly gained another gear. He pitched poorly that day, and in general, his July went about as bad as possible. After outpitching a miserable FIP in Seattle/KC last year (the ol’ Ryan Franklin deal of giving up tons of solo HRs), he’s now got an ERA worse than a so-so FIP. Neither’s really all that encouraging, but at least they’re *different*. Gaviglio seemed like a classic AAAA guy, without the pure stuff that could miss big league bats. Given that and the overall environment, he seemed like he’d always give up HRs and couldn’t balance that with any positive attribute. He’s still pretty marginal, but incremental improvements in his slider and especially change have at least enabled him to miss a few bats. He’s no longer on David Price’s tail in K% or anything, and may still be a AAAA pitcher, but for a team like this, he’s a decent enough flyer.
Dee Gordon’s missing his 2nd straight day with an injured ankle.
Ben Gamel went 4-5 in yesterday’s game, bringing his line since his demotion to 7 for 13 with 3 doubles and a HR. I completely understand the flexibility that Heredia provides the defense, but the M’s can’t score any runs right now and their active roster management doesn’t seem to suggest that they see this as a problem. Ben Gamel is not a great offensive player, and can’t stop the M’s offensive woes by himself. But when you’re in an offensive funk like this, I’d assume that the M’s would go all-out in trying to put their best offensive line-up out there. They…don’t seem to agree. Even if it’s marginal, you kind of have to go for it, right? There’s a reason Chris Herrmann is up instead of Freitas, and the equivalent reasoning would argue for Gamel. Mini-rant over.
1: Span, LF
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Herrmann, C
8: Heredia, CF
9: Romine, 2B
SP: Leake
Game 110, Jays at Mariners: Big Game Marco, We Need You
Marco Gonzales vs. Ryan Borucki, 7:10pm
Last night’s game was frustrating on so many levels, from losing to a team that’s kicked off a rebuild, to the bullpen continuing their slide, to, uh, the small matter of the Oakland A’s overtaking the M’s in the wildcard race. The fan base is anxious/angry, and the A’s kick off a series at home against the similarly-rebuilding Detroit Tigers. The M’s really, really need a win here. In the first game of the Astros series, the M’s were similarly desperate, and they turned to Big Game James who delivered one of his best performances right when the M’s needed it. Today, the M’s desperately need Marco Gonzales, someone the FO clearly thinks is one of the best SPs in the league, to be on his game tonight, as the playoff expectancy of this game is higher than any the M’s have played this year. To be clear: the FO’s not wrong in their assessment of Gonzales. By Fangraphs fWAR, Gonzales ranks 19th in MLB at 2.6, and by BP’s DRA-based WARP, he’s 26th at 2.9. He’s at 2.7 by BBREF’s RA9-based WAR, but I’m not exactly sure where that ranks him, but he’s in a statistical dead heat with his teammate James Paxton, which is a good spot to be.
Opposing him is Ryan Borucki, a former 15th-round pick and org-depth sort of prospect who’s popped up in a big way this year, tossing 5 quality starts in his 6 MLB opportunities. After being injured off and on for a few years, he broke out in 2016 as an over-aged soft-tossing lefty in A ball, but ran through 3 levels the following year. For Borucki, his game depends on getting to his plus change-up, a pitch with pretty odd movement. Borucki’s fastball is only 91-92, and it’s thrown from a 6′ release point that’s more or less dead on average. It’s just that the thing MOVES like it’s a sinker thrown by a low-3/4 arm slot guy like Adam Conley or Sean Manaea. All in all, his fastball is almost a dead ringer for Manaea’s, right down to the 92-ish velo. Borucki’s gets a touch more horizontal movement and maybe slightly less vertical movement (though it’s really, really close). That’s why it’s so weird that Borucki’s got the slightly more elevated release point. You can see in the gifs of that FG post linked above that his delivery *looks* kind of side-army, but it’s released from 6’+. The dissonance of movement and release point may be making it harder on batters.
The other problem is that his secondaries are just as weird. His signature change has plenty of armside run, but *less* than his four-seam fastball (that’s not unheard of, but it’s not super common). It also has MORE vertical rise (which I’ve almost never seen from an overhand pitcher). His slider sinks a ton, again simulating a pitch thrown by a sidewinder. AAA hitters seemed unfazed by this gap between expected and actual movement, as he threw 77 IP in the IL this year with a FIP of just over 4. That’s not bad, but it doesn’t scream instant success, either. I wonder if MLB hitters get more coaching preparing them to react to arm angles – if they mentally make little adjustments based on cues like release point MORE than minor league hitters, who may not have as much access to video scouting and the like. In any event, he’s been much tougher in the bigs, with a FIP of 2.5 over those 6 starts.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, LF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Maybin, CF
9: Heredia, LF
SP: GONZALES
I get, intellectually, the idea of keeping Guillermo Heredia over Ben Gamel. Tonight’s game with a tough lefty on the hill would seem to validate it. But now the M’s, in a complete offensive tailspin, get to take defense-first Heredia and stick him in an *outfield corner*. I love platoon splits, and they matter and all, but the answer to persistent offensive struggles is not Guillermo Heredia in LF. No, you don’t need your 4th OF to spark the offense, and no, Ben Gamel’s no great shakes vs. lefties. But the M’s seemed to prioritize defensive flexibility here, and I find that kind of strange. Cameron Maybin has reverse splits for his career, which…I don’t know. This is all a very small point, but at this point in the season, with anxiety peaking, we’re all picking at a lot of the small things.
Game 109, Jays at Mariners: Do Not Go Gentle
King Felix vs. Jaime Garcia, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day. I want to write that, because I don’t know if I’ll have the opportunity to do so again. The M’s are in a playoff race, and Felix has struggled, as the M’s point out at every opportunity. Hey, gotta be ruthless, right? Team over individual.
I’m not denying the logic of the M’s tough love approach here (though the love is currently below detectable levels). What I’m really angry about is the way 100% of the blame is directed at Felix. What possible use is a peak performance team, a mental skills team, multiple pitching brains on the coaching staff, if not to help in this precise moment? For better or worse, the M’s built a coaching/development/culture group to interface with players, and they seem unwilling to acknowledge that, if Felix is cooked at 32, then all of those people failed along with El Cartelua.
This is where the game is going. The M’s aren’t behind the Astros because they didn’t have as high of draft picks. They’re behind the Astros because Justin Verlander – with the same miles on the odometer that Felix has – is suddenly an ace again. Because Gerrit Cole uncovered previously unknown levels of ability, just as Charlie Morton (years older than Felix) did. Not all of these changes were implemented in Houston, though they did a few. It’s that they can encourage and maintain progress, they can identify flaws, and work toward improvement. There’s nothing magic about that. It’s hard, hard work, but it can be done. This is, in short, the M’s vision of their own approach. And the M’s are getting their clocks cleaned, comprehensively, at their own approach.
I have always hated the idea of Felix coming into Safeco wearing some unfamiliar gray and dominating the M’s. There’s a reason “Felix is ours and you can’t have him,” was such an effective rallying cry for a woebegone fan base like this one. After the past few weeks, I don’t think I’d hate it anymore. It’d make me happy, angry, sad, hurt, and uplifted all at once. Love is strange like that.
I don’t want Felix to go out with a good game. I want to change the trajectory he’s on, not forestall impact. Yes, yes, that all sounds like a naive little boy who can’t accept the reality that’s screaming as loud as the HR ball off of Mike Trout’s bat, but the modern game is about more than Ks and HRs. It’s about ignoring population-wide stats like aging curves or HR/FB. And if that makes me a naive little fanboy, well love is strange like that, too.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Span, LF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, RF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Maybin, CF
SP: King Felix. Siempre.
Give ‘em hell, Felix.
Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.