Cactus League Game 6, White Sox at Mariners
King Felix vs. Lucas Giolito, 12:10pm
Happy Felix Day to you and yours. I don’t know how many more times I’ll get to type that, so I want to make sure I don’t miss any now.
Looking at the M’s 2019 projections from Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Clay Davenport, there’s a consensus that the M’s won’t be very good. There’s disagreement about where the M’s are on offense, but the real question mark – the thing that could see the M’s ending with some solid growth and a nearly .500 record or crash and burn to 70 wins – is their pitching. The bullpen’s been torn down, but more than that, the rotation’s still somewhat of an unknown, which is fascinating when you think how experienced all of these guys are. There aren’t any rookies, besides Kikuchi, who shouldn’t really count as one. The guys that the projections can’t agree on are guys like Marco Gonazales.
There’s one guy, of course, that all projection systems think they’ve got sussed. Essentially everyone now assumes Felix will be hide-your-eyes awful, and seeing Felix come back strong is perhaps the biggest thing that would help the M’s overachieve. It pains me to say it, but Felix won’t be on the next M’s team that’s an actual contender, so you could argue that his performance in 2019 is completely meaningless to the M’s franchise. That’s a really nihilistic thing to say, though. More accurately, if the overhauled M’s coaching staff, now armed with racks of Rapsodo and Edgertronic cameras, can make meaningful improvements in Felix, then that’s a really good sign that guys like Marco really will become better than the projection systems could dream of.
Lucas Giolito is one of several high-risk/high-reward prospects the White Sox got when they committed to a rebuild and sold off their star players like Adam Eaton and Chris Sale. A rebuild takes time, say GMs, but I’d be pretty worried if I was a Sox fan. Giolito isn’t yet 25, but he’s coming off a below-replacement-level season, and has now thrown 240 abysmal innings in the big leagues. He doesn’t miss bats, the walk rate is awful, and the projection systems see him making only minor improvements in 2019. Yoan Moncada was disappointing-but-average by Fangraphs, but sub-replacement level by BP’s measures. There are serious problems all over that roster, and it’s not clear who you’d identify as the core stars who will lead them back to redemption and contention. As much as the Cubs or Astros are now seen as the models for how to rebuild successfully, I think they’re also paradoxically showing that rebuilds are no longer needed. That player development doesn’t hinge on a transformative #1 overall draft pick but rather with turning some random org-depth guy into Josh James or getting the absolute most from your 17th-overall guy (Forrest Whitley) than your 1-1 (Mark Appel). The White Sox should be a cautionary tale, and while it’s a little early to call the whole thing a failure, it’s starting to look like one.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Bruce, LF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Narvaez, C
7: Crawford, SS
8: Fraley, CF
9: Ackley, DH
SP: EL CARTELUA
Cactus League Game 5, Rangers at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Adrian Sampson, 12:10pm
Well, Kikuchi didn’t really disappoint, and the M’s got a HR from Kyle Lewis, so I really don’t see how the past few days could’ve gone any better. This is the point where I start to get nervous after years of conditioning as an M’s fan.
Marco looked good in his, uh, 1 inning of work in the rained out first game of the spring, so it’ll be fun to see him pitch an entire two innings today. Unfortunately, it’s in Peoria, so we don’t have the kind of information we got on Sunday. In the olden days, Peoria was one of a few pitch fx ballparks in the Cactus League, and that made these games a bit more interesting – we could SEE when people were working on a new pitch, or had velo increases (or decreases), and if the movement numbers were surreal, eh, that was just the price of admission for actual data.
Now, they’ve switched off the public pitch fx feed, and we have to wait until the M’s play in a statcast park, and since their home park ain’t one of them, we’re almost as data starved as we were waaaaaay back in 2007-08.
Adrian Sampson’s the local kid who pitched for the M’s briefly before sustaining a major arm injury. He went to Bellevue College and was with the Pirates org before coming to the M’s as the return for JA Happ a few years back. He signed on with the Rangers and is apparently healthy now. His is a good story, and I’m glad he’s worked his way back.
Today’s line-up:
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Bruce, LF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Nola, C
9: Bishop, CF
SP: Gonzales
Over at LL, Jake Mailhot has come up with a non-results-based pitch quality metric using velo, movement, spin rate, and a command component based on the edge/heart numbers that Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmermann developed. I have some issues with it, but it’s worth a look/your time. As you might expect, no Mariner starter grades out as above average in it. Marco comes closest thanks to his change and curve.
Cactus League Game 4 – Yusei Kikuchi’s Debut
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Alex Wood (Reds), 12:10pm (TV!)
The M’s got everything they could’ve wished for from Justus Sheffield’s debut yesterday, as the lefty brushed aside my concerns about his bat missing ability vs. opposite-handed batters by striking out *4* righties in 2 scoreless innings. Yusei Kikuchi, can you top that?
We get to see the big off-season acquisition against live batters today for the first time, and I’m irrationally excited about it. What will his velo look like (Sheffield sat 92-93, touching 94)? How will he mix his pitches? Does his deceptive delivery hide his breaking pitches?
If that wasn’t enough, former top prospect Kyle Lewis gets the start in RF. After years of injury rehab, Lewis almost feels like a forgotten man, and I’ve worried that he’s lost a step and years of developmental time, but maaaaan would this system look better with a breakout campaign from Lewis.
1: Long, 3B
2: Beckham, SS
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Narvaez, C
5: Santana, LF
6: Healy, 1B
7: Lewis, RF
8: Thompson-Williams, CF
9: Negron, 2B
SP: KIKUCHI
Shed Long gets the start at 3B, as the M’s assess his flexibility/utility value. Also our first look at Edwin Encarnacion.
The Reds re-made their team this offseason, and I’m kind of interested to see how it goes. Ex-Dodger Alex Wood gets the start today, but they’ll see if they can coax a bounceback year from Sonny Gray, too. Good luck, Cincy, and thanks for Shed Long.
Go M’s.
Cactus League Game 3 – Mariners and Rockies
Wade LeBlanc vs. Jon Gray, 12:10pm (no tv)
The M’s face off with the Rockies, who’ll send Jon Gray to the mound. Wade LeBlanc gets the start, but the story of the day is getting our first look at two of the big prospects acquired in the James Paxton trade. Justus Sheffield figures to follow Wade, and then we should see Erik Swanson.
Sheffield’s opened eyes in camp, but I’m still curious to see if his command’s improving or if he’s able to generate some whiffs with his slider and sinking fastball. That’s not really been a problem in the minors, though even there, his K rate isn’t exceptional in this day and age. The issue is opposite handed batters; Sheffield’s K rate was much lower against righties. The slider is a pitch with large platoon splits, and it’s possible his arm angle exacerbates that. It’s also possible that his change-up comes along and renders concerns about the slider-to-righties thing moot. I’d take that.
1: Dee Gordon, 2B
2: Mitch Haniger, RF
3: Jay Bruce, 1B
4: Kyle Seager, 3B
5: Ryon Healy, DH
6: Ichiro! LF
7: Crawford, SS
8: Fraley, CF
9: Lobaton, C
SP: Wade LeBlanc
Hope to see Crawford make some solid contact, see if Seager’s re-worked physique comes with a re-worked approach at the plate and see what Ryon Healy does today. The downside of course is that this more traditional/”real” line-up means Shed Long, who homered yesterday, is relegated to the bench.
Cactus League Game 2 – First Felix
Felix vs. Bryan Mitchell, 12:10pm
Happy Felix Day.
Today’s game against the Padres offers our first look at the question mark that Felix has become. He is still one of my favorite Mariners ever, and I’m still not happy with how the M’s have managed his past two seasons, but with new coaches and perhaps a new approach, I’m eager to see if there’s still some royalty in Felix’s right arm.
The line-up features new prospects like Shed Long and Dom Thompson-Williams as well as drafted/developed guys like Eric Filia and Braden Bishop.
The Padres starter is ex-Yankee Bryan Mitchell, who put up a remarkably poor season last year, walking more than he K’d in 73 IP. He has mid-90s velo on his four seam, but the movement on it is mushy, without real rise or sink. He’s got a curve and cutter, but struggles to miss many bats.
The velo and 2018 results make me think of Justus Sheffield, and I don’t want to say I’m down on the new M’s starter or that he’s not a good prospect. Just IF Sheffield really struggled, it’d look like Mitchell, only left-handed. The M’s will be working with Justus on his fastball command, but they also have an advantage in that Sheffield’s slider is a better pitch than anything Mitchell throws. Still, it’s a reminder in this day and age that mid-90s velo from a starter isn’t enough on its own to make a great starter, even a 4-5.
With Manny Machado in the fold, I’d be stunned if the Pads stuck w/Mitchell in their rotation, but who knows.
1: Long, 2B
2: Beckham, SS
3: Santana, LF
4: Narvaez, C
5: Thompson-Williams, CF
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Negron, 3B
8: Filia, DH
9: Bishop, CF
SP: El Cartelua
The M’s and Being Honest – Cactus League Game 1
The Cactus League “season” will once again attempt to begin shortly with the M’s taking on the A’s. Yesterday’s contest made through 1 1/2 innings before being called off. Unlike in the last few years, though, the M’s are – by their own admission – not really attempting to make the playoffs this year. This is their step-back campaign, and as much as that should take the pressure off of the club, I think we’re beginning an absolutely critical year for the franchise and the game.
Put aside the strategic arguments for the step-back. The fact that Dallas Keuchel and Bryce Harper and any number of really good players remain unsigned as almost-real baseball begins is remarkable. It’s only possible because so few teams are actively trying to get better, or rather, actively trying to use free agency to get better.
Isn’t that good, though? Why not focus on development? After years of lambasting teams for ill-considered free agent splurges (Carlos Lee, where have you gone?), NOW the nerds are mad that teams stopped making them? Well, yes. The lack of a free agent market is just a sign that winning and revenue don’t line up anymore. The league and teams are arguing that payroll doesn’t align with winning percentage, and that’s sort of true. But the bigger problem is on the revenue side: it doesn’t matter what you do, it doesn’t matter who you roll out there, you can still make out like a bandit. We used to worry about inefficient methods of building a winner. Now, more than half the league isn’t terribly interested in trying at all.
This is not to say that the M’s were wrong to move on from their old core. Rather that there’s nothing about Keuchel, to say nothing of Harper, that doesn’t align with their own professed contention window. Does that mean they should go sign them now? I don’t know, but they should give it serious thought.
The M’s have overhauled their player development, and that’s a very welcome sign. But any honest accounting of this would say that they remain a ways behind the likes of Houston and perhaps even Anaheim. No one really knows how quickly this sort of thing can change, and maybe it’s not such a big problem. But one of the things they talked up in the past was the benefit of having a Nelson Cruz around for the youngsters to emulate. Their pitching development needed a ton of work, and hopefully they’re far down that path, but I would imagine Keuchel could help with that effort just by being around. I would love for Keuchel and Felix to talk sinkers for an hour a week, and with the M’s focus on throwing four-seamers up in the zone (as heard on this week’s Hot Stove podcast), guys like Justus Sheffield with some natural sink on their fastball might benefit from picking the brain of a guy like Keuchel. Ah well.
To fire off another cynical note in what’s supposed to be a happy day, I’d just note that in an environment where even FAs in their mid-20s struggled to latch on with a team, the M’s are building around late-bloomers and injury-delayed players. Mitch Haniger will be 32 when he hits free agency, as will Marco Gonzales. If things go right, Justin Dunn and Jake Fraley wouldn’t debut until they were at least 24. The pressure’s now off the team to sign extensions or lock up a chunk of prime-year production for a lot of these guys. Sure, they’ve also got Justus Sheffield (who won’t turn 23 until May) and JP Crawford (24, with over 1 year of service time) as big returns in their off-season deals, but if they play in AAA for a month or so, then the M’s could get an extra year of control.
The M’s faced the A’s today in Peoria that threatened more rain, but turned mostly sunny by the end of the game. The pitchers were very effective, with Mike Leake going 2 IP, Zac Rosscup, Shawn Armstrong, Dan Altavilla, Justin Dunn, Chase Bradford, and Ruben Alaniz keeping the A’s scoreless until the 9th, when the enigmatic Nick Rumbelow gave up a meaningless dinger in the M’s 8-1 win. Mitch Haniger homered, Ichiro singled and knocked in 2, and Kyle Seager went 2-2. Tito Polo made an acrobatic catch in CF, and Tim Lopes doubled off of top prospect Jesus Luzardo, too. If the game’s remembered for anything, though, it may be the debut of the pitch clock, the pace of play innovation that’s rolling out in MLB this year. Fans of the minors have seen them for a few years.