Game 6, Red Sox at Mariners
Wade LeBlanc vs. Rick Porcello, 1:10pm
The M’s go for a big 3-1 series win today against Boston behind lefty Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc’s velocity was down below 87mph last season, and despite a brilliant change, there’s going to be a lower limit to how far that fastball speed can fall. He was fairly consistent last year, though he’d have games where he’d allow multiple HRs, and if they came with runners on base, then his line looked fairly ugly, while if they came with the bases empty (or didn’t show up at all), then he’d put together a quality start.
I was just watching Wade Miley for the Astros a minute ago, another pitcher who looked to be cooked at the MLB level, but developed a decent cutter and saw it breathe new life into their arsenal. LeBlanc always had one, but his usage of it – and especially using it instead of his four-seam “fast”ball – seemed to really help last year. Wade is now mostly a three-pitch guy: sinker, cutter, and cambio, and when the sinker isn’t working, he can lean on the cutter a lot. Batters didn’t swing at it as much as his change, so he could steal a called strike at times, or get a foul ball.
Still, if he’s going to be effective, he needs to have a good change-up working. The M’s have thrown the Sox quite a few in the early going, with Marco Gonzales and Mike Leake throwing quite a few. And it’s worked well, as the starters have been mostly solid thus far. Leake in particular was sharp, and while the results weren’t great on the change, they got batters off of his sinker and cutter…kind of like Wade’s looking to do today.
Was thinking about Brendan Brennan, whom I mentioned in yesterday’s write-up, and then I came across a pitch movement doppleganger who just happens to be one of my favorites. Let’s go to a classic comparison template!
| Sinker Velo | Sinker H Mov | Sinker V Mov | Change Velo | Change H Mov | Change V Mov | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 94.77 | -11.65 | 2.39 | 85.31 | -10.67 | 1.87 |
| Player B | 95.01 | -10.85 | 2.67 | 85.12 | -10.5 | 1.38 |
Like any comparison of this type, I’ve taken some liberties that make it closer than it really is. Player A is a starter, while Player B’s pitched in relief. I used 2019 data for sinkers, but needed to grab 2018+2019 for the change-ups, which makes things closer, as Player A seems to have had a slight arm angle change this year. Ok, enough suspense. Player A is Charlie Morton, now with the Rays, and B is Brennan.
The M’s face Rick Porcello today, a recent Cy Young winner whose K rate and K:BB ratio continue to climb. All of that said, he hasn’t been as effective as you might think given the improvement in those peripherals, and there’s an important reason why. He’s always had trouble stranding runners, and that’s interesting given that we’d expect his strand rate to improve as his K rate does. Instead, it’s staying around 70%, where it’s been for his career. And in his lengthy career, he’s had fairly consistent splits. His career wOBA with the bases empty is .312, and it’s .339 with men on (and even higher with men in scoring position).
Today’s line-up:
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Narvaez, C
6: Beckham, SS
7: Healy, 3B
8: Vogelbach, DH
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: LeBlanc
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12 Responses to “Game 6, Red Sox at Mariners”
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Dingers are nice but how about a little infield D?
So what are our third base options?
I am surprised how much the Mariners have just bludgeoned the Red Sox starters this series. I didn’t see that coming.
A missed DP leads to 3 runs. Why can’t we have offense and defense?
You can’t give up a 3 run homer with the bases empty. However if you walk a couple?????
Of course if you walk the bases loaded the options grow. Maybe I should just head to the golf course now.
Then again you could walk a guy with the bases loaded. Pure entertainment.
Small miracles?
Whew!
I was responding to the comments regarding Healy’s error. That led to a 3-run first.
.833 winning percentage!
…..but only 4 games above .500
Felix has gone from slump buster to rally killer.
Don’t run him out there every 5th day. Sign Dallas Keuchel.
yes, I know I am irrationally over reacting to a small sample size. I don’t care. Baseball is irrational. If we were going to be completely rational we wouldn’t care about this stupid game at all.