Game 32, Cubs at Mariners – Let’s Hope They Got It Out of Their System
King Felix vs. Cole Hamels, 7:10pm
A most happy Felix Day to all of you this Tuesday. I apologize for missing the last two posts, but if you’re going to miss a couple, could you possibly pick better games to skip? I didn’t even watch, as I fell ill, and spent essentially the entire weekend sleeping in the day and feeling sorry for myself at night. It’s been miserable. It’s almost like the M’s caught something though, too, and if their abysmal play was a gesture of sympathy, uh, that’s…that’s not necessary, guys. If it was just one of those weird things a team will go through during a season, that’s fine; all’s forgiven. Now score the King some runs!
The M’s made a pretty big personnel move, optioning CF Mallex Smith down to Tacoma and bringing back Braden Bishop. The UW product will slide into Smith’s spot, and Smith, who’d recently been working on his defense, will now get to work on his…everything in the lower pressure environment of the PCL. 2019 started so brightly for Smith, but he’s in a funk that quickly took on worrying proportions. Chris Davis spotted him an 0-33 start, but he’s since surpassed Smith’s slash line, and to be clear: Davis’ line is still awful.
I don’t think Smith’s a bust or anything, but whatever the M’s were doing wasn’t working, and when it perhaps started impacting his defense (as we saw in the Texas series), then the M’s made the move. It’s a great opportunity for Bishop, who was hitting .267/.356/.444. Bishop’s always carried a great reputation for his glovework, so the M’s don’t need him to carry the offense. The 10%+ walk rates he’s put the past few years give him even more of a cushion. As Brendan Gawlowski mentioned on Twitter today, he’s the first Mariner who’d also played at the University of Washington since Sean White back in 2010. The M’s org has had a number of Husky products get to AAA but not the majors, like Jeff Heaverlo, Forrest Snow, Andrew Kittredge (who made MLB with Tampa), and Nick Hagadone (who’d previously made the majors with Cleveland, et. al.).
The M’s face veteran lefty Cole Hamels, who I’ll always remember as one of the big prospects who debuted *After* Felix. If we separate baseball into the pre- and post-Felix eras (and we should), you’ve got Felix and Justin Verlander right at the 0 point. Matt Cain was just a bit later that same August of 2005, and Francisco Liriano was a call-up in September. And then, in 2006, the next wave came with Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels.
At the time, Hamels was a straight-over-the-top lefty who released the ball from about as high as he could reach, and that angle produced pure backspin on his fastball, giving it some of the best vertical rise you’ll see. That helped it play up from its so-so 90 MPH velocity. But of course whenever you talk about Hamels, you have to talk about his change up. It’s been his best pitch for well over a decade, and it’s stayed effective even as his arm angle dropped and his fastball doesn’t have quite the rise it once did (on the plus side, he’s throwing faster now than when he came in). He mixes in a cutter that’s been one of his favorite toys in recent years, and he’s thrown his curve more since joining the Cubs.
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SP: FELIX.
It was only, what, a week or so ago that the M’s announced they’d hired former great Mike Cameron to be a roving instructor for the club. Today, the M’s doubled down on legendary coaching hires by making Ichiro Suzuki an instructor who’ll focus on OF play and hitting for both Seattle and Tacoma. Maybe he can help Mallex Smith?
Jarred Kelenic is 2-3 thus far in West Virginia, with a HR and 2B. He’s on a long hitting streak, and now the question is just how long the M’s will keep both Kelenic and Logan Gilbert down in A ball.
Speaking of old friend Forrest Snow, he’s starting tonight against the Rainiers in Salt Lake.
Last night’s action featured a walk-off loss for Tacoma, a nice win for Arkansas capped with a Kyle Lewis HR, and a classic Cal League 14-11 slugfest in which Lancaster outlasted Modesto.
Game 29, Rangers at Mariners – Justus Time
Yusei Kikuchi/Justus Sheffield vs. Shelby Miller, 7:10pm
The Rangers made some roster moves before the game, with the Rangers optioning Wisdom down to the minors and activating Odor to replace him. Odd strategy, but after last night’s game, I guess you have to think outside the box. Seriously, that’s an actual transaction and it is awesome, and please stop booing me.
The M’s own name-as-noun player, Justus Sheffield’s up with the club and he’ll see several innings today after the M’s have Yusei Kikuchi pitch an abbreviated start. This is part of the plan they put in place this winter to limit Kikuchi’s workload, but with the long layoff after the two games in Japan, they haven’t needed to implement it until now.
It opens the door to Sheffield, who looked impressive in the spring, but has struggled with his command mightily in Tacoma. He’s thrown 18 1/3 IP in the PCL and given up 13 hits and *14 walks* against 11 Ks. Command has never been his strong suit, but this is something else entirely. I’d like to blame the ball, but AAA is now using the MLB baseball as opposed to the different baseball used in the rest of the minor leagues. His best pitch is his slider, a swerving pitch at 85 with very good vertical drop. He’s got a change-up as well that’s lagged behind a bit, but may be improving. The command issues seem to be centered on his fastball, which comes in at 92-93-94. When he’s on, he can get strikeouts and grounders thanks to the natural sink on his pitches, which come from a lower-3/4 slot. My worry is that it’s a profile that could struggle with opposite-handed hitters, but we’ll see how the Rangers fare against him.
To make room for Sheffield, the M’s DFA’d reliever Shawn Armstrong, the interesting ex-Clevelander who looked off after coming back from an oblique injury in the early going. Here’s hoping the M’s can slip him through waivers. Of potential interest, Armstrong is at the top of the list on the M’s in fastball spin rate, with a legitimately impressive nearly 2,600 RPM. Unfortunately, he now joins several spin rate champs who’ve opened the season poorly – guys like Chris Stratton and Corbin Burnes.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Santana, LF
3: Vogelbach, DH
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Bruce, RF
6: Beckham, SS
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Kikuchi-then-Sheffield
Jarred Kelenic homered today for WV, supporting Logan Gilbert, who went 5 2/3 IP giving up 3 R on 4 H and he struck out 8.
New Mariner roving instructor Mike Cameron (wooo!) is in Arkansas today, working on OF defense and baserunning with the Travs.
The Rainiers are in a bit of a funk right now, falling to 7-14 after last night’s drubbing at the hands of Sacramento. Tacoma’s gone through a lot of pitchers, and signed Tyler Cloyd, who’ll make his seasonal debut and pitch a few innings. They also called up RP Reggie McLain, who’d been at Modesto, and it sounds like his velo’s ticked up this year like his old teammate Ljay Newsome. The M’s also appear to have signed former Mets SP Jon Niese, who hasn’t pitched since 2019.
Game 28, Rangers at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Taylor Hearn, 7:10pm
The Rangers starting rotation currently has an ERA that starts with a 6. Of the seven players who’ve started a game for Texas, only Mike Minor and Lance Lynn have ERAs under 7. Their FIP is somewhat better, but that’s a low bar. At 5.52, it’s 26th in the league, and remember that the league includes the Orioles. No one really expected the Rangers to contend, but they’ve been so thoroughly bad, it’s remarkable.
They’ve got the worst walk rate in the league, by a wide margin, at 4.55 walks per 9 innings. Atlanta’s in second, but at least their rotation is staffed with up-and-coming prospects, and plus, they generate some strikeouts. The Rangers K/9 ranks 26th, ahead of the Mariners’, who rank last. But again: the M’s don’t give up walks, and their ERA/FIP – while not earth shattering – are perfectly fine. A big, big problem for them has been the home run, and just like the M’s of a few years ago, they built a fly-balling staff (they have the lowest GB% in baseball) only for the ball to get all rubbery and lead to a volley of dingers.
Of course, arguing that their plan had failed due to bad luck may be to stretch the word “plan” past its breaking point. This rotation is pretty much all reclamation projects, from ex-Mariners like Drew Smyly and Adrian Sampson, to MLB vets like Edinson Volquez and Lance Lynn. Nominal ace Mike Minor is 31, and of their original starting 5, only Shelby Miller – another reclamation – was under 30. But with Smyly and Volquez hurt, the Rangers are turning to some of their numerous pitching prospects to log some innings. Rule 5 guy Kyle Dowdy was in the ‘pen, but made a spot start, and now the Rangers have given today’s start to their #9 prospect, Taylor Hearn. Hearn’s a 6’5″ lefty with a very live fastball and a solid curve and change. What he hasn’t shown much of yet is control. Thus far in AAA, he’s racked up 10 walks in 20 innings, though to be fair, that’s balanced by 26 K’s. He’s been solid in the Rangers system, having come over in last year’s Keone Kela deal from Pittsburgh, but he may not be the guy to bring down Texas’ eye-watering walk rate.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Santana, RF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Beckham, SS
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Healy, 3B
7: Narvaez, C
8: Moore, LF
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Modesto’s Ljay Newsome is pitching today, as the Nuts played an early game. He’s at 8Ks through 5 IP, which would tie for his *lowest* number of strikeouts on the season. It’s been a massive, massive improvement for the righty out of Maryland this year, and it’s been helped by an uptick in his velocity. He’d been great from a K:BB ratio standpoint in the past, though that was more the product of a very low denominator than a great numerator. This year, it’s both, and it’s moved him from great org depth to something more. Today’s start doubled his seasonal walks-allowed; he’s now given up 4 in 29 1/3 IP. But it brought his strikeouts up to 46, which is officially insane.
It’s kind of nice that Newsome’s got company in the best story among homegrown pitching prospects. Arkansas’ Darren McCaughan continued his torrid start in yesterday’s 8-1 win, running his season numbers to 1-1 in 4 starts with 23 Ks and 2 walks in 24 IP. He had 7 Ks in last night’s 7 IP performance, giving up just the one run.
Continuing this joyous theme, Vancouver, WA product Damon Casetta-Stubbs got his first professional win last night, spinning 5 hitless/scoreless in West Virginia’s 2-1 win over Columbia. He struck out 4 and didn’t walk anyone.
Sacramento beat Tacoma 4-1 behind a great Ty Blach start. Today, the R’s send veteran Tommy Milone on to start.
Game 27, Mariners at Padres
King Felix vs. Chris Paddack, 12:40pm
Happy Felix Day. It’s an early game today as the M’s try to resume their HR barrage after getting skunked by the Padres last night. Today they face heralded rookie Chris Paddack, who’s been devilishly hard to hit this year, though he’s yet to record his first big league win. Of note, the M’s will be the first team to face him for a second time. No, he hasn’t faced them in a real MLB contest yet, but he just pitched against much the same line-up at T-Mobile park in late March after the M’s returned back from Japan. It doesn’t “count” but it totally counts. How will the M’s adjust? Will they stalk fastballs in particular counts?
I mentioned Paddack in yesterday’s post, so I want to put the focus back on Felix. Everyone knew Felix needed to make some adjustments, and Felix is an interesting lens through which to see the impact of the M’s new pitching coach and the assorted development folks who are new to the org. Felix has had numerous issues over the past few years, but a big one is that as his velocity dropped (or, as his stuff worsened), batters could wait for pitches over the plate. If Felix didn’t throw them, they’d take a base on balls, and thus Felix’s walk rate, which was 5% in 2014, climbed to 7%, then nearly 10% in 2016, and has bounced around 7-9% since. If he DID pipe get-me-over fastballs in the zone, they’d destroy them. He struck out 92 batters on FBs in 2014, and gave up 6 HRs in the last year of the little batting ice age. In 2015, that ratio was down to 62:15, before dropping to 32:11 in 2016 and then 20:11 in fewer innings in 2017. It got slightly better last year (31:14), but this is still a serious problem, and obviously the ball’s juicier this year.
When Felix first came up, he threw a ton of strikes, but still had a high walk rate. He was hittable in and around the zone, despite premium velocity. As Felix learned to pitch more effectively, he was able to drop his walk rate AND the rate of pitches he threw in the zone. This is the best of both worlds, obviously, and something I’ve talked a lot about in regards to Hisashi Iwakuma. When Felix’s change-up was perhaps the best pitch in the game, Felix could throw it for a ball knowing that batters would swing anyway. So, in 2008, Felix could throw 53.3% of his pitches in the zone and produce a walk rate of 9.3%. But by his magisterial 2014 season, he threw just 44.6% of his pitches for strikes, but walked just 5% of hitters. And then, for several years, the plan stopped working.
In 2016, as I mentioned, his walk rate was nearly 10% and he posted his lowest-ever zone%, at just over 40%. Worse, as I showed above, it didn’t really prevent HRs. His two strengths had flipped to weaknesses, and thus began Felix’s long trek through the pitching wilderness, a journey in which he seemed to get very little actionable information from his pitching coach. He’s brought his zone% up in recent years, but the walks are still high, and the dingers…man, the dingers. So what’s the strategy now? Avoid the zone and nibble around a bunch and keep the game close? Or just throw strikes and let the dingers fall where they may?
It’s still early, but thus far, Felix seems to have thrown his lot in with Plan B, and is just going to throw strikes. His zone% is now 55.7%, the highest it’s ever been in the pitch fx era (since 2007). His walk rate is absurdly low, at 2 walks in 18 1/3 IP, though that’s misleading, as he’s plunked 3 as well. Thus far, it hasn’t resulted in a HR barrage, but it’s made him hittable. As I’ve been talking about all year, that seems to be a team-wide philosophy. The M’s have given up the 2nd-most base hits this year to the abysmal Orioles, and while they’ve faced the most batters, they’ve given up 24 more hits than the A’s in 25 more PAs, and 56 more hits than the Padres. But like many of his teammates, Felix is sort of muddling through. True, his BABIP has been awful, so the ERA doesn’t exactly show that this new philosophy is working, but if he can gut through some starts without too many HRs and without walking people, he’ll be doing fine as a 5th starter. In this rotation, he’s just doing what everyone else is doing. Among starters with at least 20 IP, Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, and Mike Leake rank 5th, 6th, and 7th, respectively, in zone% out of 115 pitchers. Felix is just under 20 IP (so he’ll get there today), but would rank fractionally ahead of Gonzales as the team’s preeminent strike thrower.
1: Haniger, RF
2: Vogelbach, 1B
3: Santana, LF
4: Narvaez, C
5: Beckham, SS
6: Gordon, 2B
7: Healy, 3B
8: Smith, CF
9/SP: El Cartelua
The M’s made a trade today, picking up RHP Mike Wright from Baltimore in exchange for 2018 draft pick, shortstop Ryne Ogren. Ogren was with West Virginia, where he homered last night in a big win. Wright had been DFA’d by Baltimore this week, as the fly-baller had never quite adjusted to life in the live-ball era. His career ERA is nearly 6, and his FIP is solidly over 5. There’s no way around the fact that he’s been bad, and bad enough that the worst pitching club in the game DFA’d him. But it’s equally true that Baltimore’s been stunningly bad at developing or helping pitchers recently, and thus if you want to bargain shop, they’re not a bad little thrift store. Jake Arrieta’s the big example, but Wade Miley may be another. Not saying Wright’s going to do that; his stuff isn’t great. He throws a straight FB at 93 or so, has a decent-looking change, but his out pitch is a hard slider at 89. He used to have a curve, too. We’ll see what the M’s want to do with him.
Game 26, Mariners at Padres
Erik Swanson vs. Nick Margevicius, 7:07pm
I’ve talked a lot about the M’s low-strikeout rotation and how Yusei Kikuchi’s doing perhaps a bit too much to fit in, with his fastball not missing many bats despite solid velocity. Today, though, we get someone who really doesn’t fit in. Erik Swanson’s only pitched in two games, and only one start, but what we’ve seen thus far is essentially the anti-Marco Gonzales. Where Marco mixes his pitches and keeps hitters guessing, Swanson’s gonna throw heaters. Where Marco pitches to contact, Swanson wants whiffs. Where Marco manages contact, Swanson wants to eliminate it.
Swanson’s going to throw high fastballs and if batters don’t miss it, they often hit it in the air. That’s a dangerous game to play in the juiced-ball era, but it’s worked in his first handful of innings. It’s a very on-trend way to baseball. Getting whiffs on fastballs and not worrying too much about ground balls is one of the hallmarks of the Indians’ rotation; Trevor Bauer’s GB% has tanked this year, and Mike Clevinger’s was under 40% in the early going as well (before his injury), and both are racking up strikeouts. Gerald Schifman’s got a great article at BP today talking about pitchers abandoning the sinker en masse, with a large drop from 2018 to 2019, accelerating a trend that’s been underway since hitters learned to elevate low pitches and turn them into long balls instead of GBs. What Clevinger and perhaps Swanson are doing exemplifies the countermeasure from pitchers.
While Swanson’s four-seam looks a bit like Clevinger’s (the guy with the best whiff rate on the pitch in the big leagues), it looks even more like another young pitcher we’ve heard a lot about this year, the Padres Chris Paddack. Both pitches have very good vertical “rise” and thus play well at the top of the zone. Paddack’s has 4+” of armside run and 10.4″ of rise, while Swanson’s at 5″ of run and 10.5″ of rise. Both generate more whiffs than average, but Paddack gets a ton of foul balls. With 94-95mph velo, it’s a very helpful pitch to get batters behind or to catch them when they’re looking out for his actual out-pitch, the change. If Swanson has an out-pitch, it’s probably his slider, but he hasn’t needed to throw all that many of them. It’s sitting on an obscene whiff rate now, but he’s thrown less than 20 of them, so it’s hard to know where it’ll settle in. But what’s clear is that his great fastball sets it up, both as a way to get ahead in the count and to change eye-level (the FB’s thrown all over, but especially up in the zone, and the slider can break down and below the zone).
So, vertical rise, plenty of whiffs…this is about spin rate, right? Noooo, it’s not. Out of the 268 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 fastballs, Swanson’s spin rate ranks 148th. Paddack’s ranks 179th. They’re very efficient, but these guys aren’t lighting up the statcast leaderboards. This highlights that spin rate on its own can be an underwhelming skill. One of the top pitchers in the game right now, and one of the highest raw spin rate AND velocity-adjusted spin rate pitchers is the Angels’ Chris Stratton. The guy who’s sporting an ERA of 7 this year, and was over 5 last year in San Francisco. Meanwhile, Clevinger’s got nearly an identical rate to Swanson, and Bauer and Josh Hader are all in the same, middle-of-the-pack area.
Line-up!
1: Haniger, RF
2: Santana, LF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Beckham, SS
5: Healy, 3B
6: Gordon, 2B
7: Murphy, C
8: Smith, CF
9/SP: Swanson
These games with our natural rival are always intense, but the battle’s taken on new significance this year, as USSMariner founder Dave Cameron is now working for the hated Padres. I’m still reeling from the deception, and while he may make them better (and, you know, that Machado guy helps too), I hope his dark arts aren’t enough. Let this serve as my pledge: I shall not abandon you to go work for another team. The fact that no team is remotely interested in me has no bearing on the weight of this solemn vow. I raise a toast to my own honor and rectitude, and also to the Seattle Mariners baseball club.
Game 24, Mariners at Angels
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Trevor Cahill, 6:07pm
I mentioned yesterday that Marco Gonzales, Mike Leake and Wade LeBlanc were three of the starting pitchers with the lowest average and peak velocity in this new strikeout-fueled game. Even after last night’s gem, Marco’s still got the absolute highest contact rate of any qualified starter – it’s almost impossible to come up empty on a swing in the zone against Marco. That doesn’t mean that something good for the batter is going to happen, but the best outcome for the pitcher – the one that’s more and more common every year – is not really in Marco’s game right now. That hasn’t mattered, of course, and I hope it stays irrelevant. But what about Kikuchi? Yusei Kikuchi throws legitimately hard, and is clearly nowhere near the bottom of the league table in terms of velo, especially peak velo.
Well, *still* he’s near the bottom in terms of contact rate. I’m not sure why. He gets tons of swings-and-misses with his slider, but the fastball’s been quite hittable, with balls in play resulting in over half of the swings. It doesn’t have remarkable movement or anything, but solid velo from a lefty who also has a very good slider and good curve… I don’t get why this is happening. Like Gonzales, he isn’t getting hit *hard*, so it’s not the worst thing in the world, but there’s a reason teams look for strikeouts more than HR/FB results or BABIP: they’re more consistent.
Kikuchi’s expected batting average/wOBA etc. in statcast show he’s been slightly lucky thus far, but nothing remarkable. That’s a good sign, as a very low walk rate and fairly low hit rate against him that isn’t the result of a great defense on hard-hit balls should be a skillset that lasts decently well. It’s not exactly a #2 starter ceiling, and I was hoping that’s what we’d get, but if he took a very different path to Marco Gonzales’ results, well, that’ll do, Kikuchi. That’ll do.
Trevor Cahill saw that Marco Gonzales got the most out of his so-so raw stuff by being unpredictable on the mound and is now replicating that strategy. Marco threw four different pitches last season around 23% of the time (each), making it harder to go up and look for, say, a sinker. OK, so Trevor Cahill this year is doing him one better, and throwing *5* different pitches at least 15% of the time, and all between 15-26%. He’s got a four-seam and sinking fastball with fairly big movement differences between them, a change-up, a slider, and a curve. His fastballs are generally around 92, with the change at 83, the slider almost cutter-ish at 86, and the curve at 80. And like Marco, this is confusing enough that batters are swinging at less than 40% of his sinkers, but over 50% on his sliders and curves. Obviously, you want batters to swing and miss, and failing that, to make contact on a pitch out of the zone. A less-good-but-still-good result is to get batters to make contact on breaking stuff and leave your fastballs alone. Cahill’s got a solid K:BB% thanks to a very low walk rate, a good approach…but hey, juiced baseball. He’s given up 5 dingers, and that’s enough for his FIP to be crap, but he’s better than that shows, and probably a touch better than his also-ran ERA. Thanks to the raw stuff, he’s not MUCH better, but there’s still a decent starter in there.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Santana, LF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Bruce, RF
6: Beckham, SS
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The M’s picked up several key additions this off-season, but one I wanted to highlight today is Omar Narvaez. He was coming off a career year at the plate, but his fielding metrics were atrocious. They still pretty much are, but here’s the thing: I don’t really care. His production at the plate has been off-the-charts good at a position the M’s haven’t really had great production from since Kenji Johjima. Thanks to those fielding metrics, he was worth about 1 win over replacement per Fangraphs and was dead-on replacement per BP’s metric, which reflects his poor pitch framing. He’s at 0.8 wins above replacement now by FG, and 0.6 by BP, and it’s still April. I give Dipoto grief about his many trades that’ve blown up on the org, but this one is clearly, clearly in the win column.
Game 23, Mariners at Angels
Marco Gonzales vs. Felix Peña, 7:07pm
The M’s look to shake off their first real struggles of the season by winning a second consecutive game tonight, perhaps one that doesn’t expose their bullpen quite so much as last night’s bizarre late-inning victory. They turn to opening day starter Marco Gonzales, and while I’ve been harping on this all year, I can’t overstate just how bizarre I find his transformation in 2019.
Baseball Prospectus has a cool stat where they measure a pitcher’s 95th-percentile velocity – or an approximation of “peak” velocity. They call it, uh, peak mph. If you look at pitchers this year and set the IP limit to 10, you’ll find 185 pitchers qualify. Of these, Gonzales ranks 182nd (his good buddy Wade LeBlanc comes in last at 185).* Gonzales’ average sinker is around 88 this year, or several MPH below the 91 he was at in 2017, and the 90 he sat at last year. In April of 2018, he was at 90.5, so this isn’t just a normal progression where he’s slower in April and works his way up. But his *peak* velo is just 89, which suggests to me that he’s not taking something off the pitch to accentuate movement; when he rears back and adds something extra, he’s *still* 1.5 MPH slower than his average from last April.
This seems to have plenty of other impacts, as his K rate has dropped markedly from last year’s career high. This year’s is essentially a career low. What’s the point of this? Is this intentional? If so, what’s the point? His average exit velocity and the other newfangled Statcast metrics aren’t that impressive, but it’s worth pointing out that his expected wOBA-allowed is even lower than his actual wOBA-allowed. Statcast thinks he may be UNlucky, whereas I’m out here wondering how he’s not a left-handed Blake Beavan. He’s clearly managing contact, and his old struggles with BABIP seem to have been tamed somewhat, and that’s saying something with a defense that doesn’t look too hot by any measure. He seems to have a plan out there, and that plan is mostly working, so I’ll just say that I have no firm ideas on what that plan might be, and that I worry he took that “crafty lefties” commercial a bit too literally.
My half-formed idea is that he’s good at getting called strikes. Is that a repeatable thing? Maybe? I don’t really know. If there’s additional deception in his delivery now, that could help explain the low expected-batting-average numbers from MLB and also the called strikes, but I’m still not really sure why it doesn’t result in whiffs.
Felix Peña was a fungible bullpen arm in the Cubs org before popping up last year as a starter for the desperate-for-starting-pitching Angels and turning in a pleasant half-year for them. He cut his walk rate, and armed with a so-so 92mph sinker and a very good slider, he ended up striking out 21% of batters. In addition to the FB and SL, he’s also got a change-up at around 85. All in all, he reminds me a bit of a right-handed…Marco Gonzales. At least, the Marco from 2018. Seriously: in 2018, their sinkers had almost identical movement, and Marco’s K% overall was 21.1% compared to Felix’s 21.9%. Their change-ups are different, though, as Pena’s plays a bit more like a splitter, with less armside run, and Marco’s is all about maximizing that armside movement. The slider is a true outpitch, something Marco doesn’t quite have yet. But then, Marco had better control. Peña’s not great at limiting HRs, though it’s really too early in his career to say much about that yet; his elevated HR/9 in 2019 is the result of precisely two dingers yielded. What he HAS shown is platoon split issues, as you might expect from a sinker/slider guy. This is a good match-up for the M’s lefties like Vogelbach and Bruce.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Bruce, LF
6: Beckham, SS
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Marco…
…Polo. I guess it’s time to retire that joke, as the M’s released OF Tito Polo who’d been with Tacoma. He spiked El Paso 1B Alex Dickerson in a game and had been suspended by the PCL. The R’s added SP Christian Bergman, who’s seen time with them the past few years, and sent SP Nabil Crismatt and erstwhile M’s RP Dan Altavilla to AA, replacing them with new-to-the-org guys RP Parker Markel and RP Aaron Northcraft. Tacoma edged El Paso 7-6 in the finale of that series on a 9th-inning HR from Eric Young, Jr. They kick off a series in Albuquerque tonight with Bergman on the hill.
Arkansas beat Tulsa for what feels like the 28th time this year by a score of 8-2. HRs from Dom Thompson-Williams, Logan Taylor, and Donnie Walton helped, and the bullpen kept the Drillers in check until the Travs exploded for 6 in the 6th IP. Reigning Texas league pitcher of the week Darren McCaughan starts today for Arkansas.
Modesto came from behind to beat the Stockton Ports 6-4 last night, scoring 2 in the 7th and 2 in the 9th to make a winner of closer Sam Delaplane, who now has 18 Ks in 9 2/3 IP. Luis Liberato was 2-3 with 2 walks for the Nuts.
West Virginia beat the Asheville Tourists 12-7, with the Power belting out 18 hits. I don’t know much about the Sally League, but one thing many long-time minor league fans know about are the insane park factors in Asheville. MiLB.com gave the park a 1.7 HR park factor in 2016, which makes it kind of stunning that a total of only 2 dingers were hit last night. Today’s game was rained out. More worrisome was the news that top prospect Julio Rodriguez hand injury was more severe than first thought. He’ll hit the IL with a hairline fracture, which contradicts earlier reports that x-rays were negative for fractures. He’ll be out 4-6 weeks.
Finally, the long Gareth Morgan experiment is at an end. The powerful Canadian slugger signed with the M’s out of high school in 2014, but scuffled in the AZL complex league, striking out in 41% of his PAs. Still, he was just 18, and a bit raw. He was better in 2015 at the same level, with a low BA, but a K rate down below 40%, but in 2016, it was up over 46%. Pushed up to the Midwest League in 2017, he had his best season, hitting 17 HRs, but still striking out over 40% of the time and unable to get hardly any non-HR hits. Promoted to high-A in 2018, things went from bad to worse. His K rate soared past 50% (187 in 342 PAs), and while 19 HRs are nice and all, they can’t support a slash line of .157/.246/.382. A slow start this year (he was 2-27 with 20 Ks in the early going) doomed him, and he’s now free to sign elsewhere. The M’s stuck with him, but it’s got to be tough. He was a classic Jack Zduriencik high-ceiling, low-floor slugger, and one of many guys the old FO scouted out of Canada. Much of that didn’t work out, though Tyler O’Neill would make the majors for St. Louis after netting the M’s Marco Gonzales in trade. Morgan was something of an object of macabre fascination for prospect watchers, and I legitimately feel bad for the kid. I hope he finds success somewhere, or goes back to school and has a great, quiet life in something else, where every day’s minor failures are tabulated and broadcast to everyone.
* Mike Leake is #181.
Game 22, Mariners at Angels
King Felix vs. Chris Stratton, 7:07pm
Happy Felix Day. It *almost* feels like old times, doesn’t it? The M’s are in a bit of a nose dive, and turn to Felix to pull out of it. Felix’s K rate doesn’t exactly remind you of 2010-2014, but on this staff, it’s noteworthy (as is Mike Leake’s, which is nuts). It’s been one of the stories of the early season that the M’s have taken pitching to contact and keeping hitters off-balance to new heights, and it’s another way that they’re moving in an opposite direction from the game as a whole. Of course, more starts like the one we saw yesterday from Erik Swanson should boost the M’s team whiff rates.
Swanson’s fastball averaged 92, but with its rise and location, it was easily his best pitch. His slider would’ve been his best if he’d only throw it a bit more; he mixed in more of his change given the handedness of the Tribe’s line-up, but the slider looked intriguing.
Anyway, tonight Felix looks to keep his decent start going. Felix is no longer capable of generating a lot of helpless flailing swings at out-of-zone pitches, but by mixing things up, he can occasionally get called strikes. He leads the team in the percentage of pitches *in* the zone that are swung at (meaning, his rate is the lowest). That’s helping him maintain a low walk rate thus far, though that’s somewhat misleading, as he’s conceded one walk, but plunked three batters in the early going. Still, I’ll take crafty junk-balling Felix if we’re bound and determined to have a rotation full of crafty soft-tossers.
Opposing him is Chris Stratton, whom we’ve had the pleasure of discussing once before. As I said before, Stratton throws a straight FB at 91, and can’t quite get to his useful curve thanks to the general mediocrity of the rest of his arsenal. Like a lot of pitchers this year, Stratton’s exiting the strike zone, as throwing a juiced baseball where batters can do damage is a scary proposition these days. That’s led to 10 walks in 13 IP for him thus far against only 7 K’s. I totally get why a guy like Stratton, who wasn’t too bad for the Giants two years ago, was quickly picked up and placed in a major league rotation, but I can’t quite get why a team that wants to win picked him up instead of, say, Dallas Keuchel.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Beckham, SS
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: EL CARTELUA
Good to see Haniger back after an illness kept him out in yesterday’s game. Gordon missed yesterday’s tilt after fouling a ball off of his foot on Tuesday, but he’s obviously healthy enough to go today, too.
Justus Sheffield had his best outing for the R’s yesterday, but 1) that’s a really low bar and 2) the bullpen had one of those games again and the R’s lost 11-10. Sheffield went 6 2/3, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks versus 6 K’s. 11 walks now in 15 1/3, but hey, progress, I guess. Matt Festa took the loss, giving up 4 runs on 2 dingers in 1 1/3. He and Nick Rumbelow haven’t gotten off to the best start thus far. JP Crawford extended his hitting streak to 12 games, and Austin Nola homered. Today, Nabil Crismatt takes the mound down in El Paso.
Arkansas lost a pitcher’s duel 2-1 to breakaway republic Northwest Arkansas. Dominican righty Ofreidy Gomez allowed just 2 hits over 7 shutout, and while Zac Grotz and the Travs’ pen kept it close, they couldn’t get past the Naturals. The Arkansas staff leads the Texas league in most pitching stats while the offense has been lacking of late. Kyle Lewis is hitting .170/.278/.362 and C Joe DeCarlo’s line is at .059/.238/.059, which is not where you want it. The Travs have the worst hitting stats in the league, but sit at 10-3, so, hey. Anthony Misiewicz starts tonight.
Visalia kept Modesto in check in a 3-1 win. Nick Wells had probably his best start of the year in a losing effort, going 5 IP and giving up 2R, but striking out 9 Rawhides? Raws-hide? No word on the starter tonight.
West Virginia beat the Lakewood BlueClaws 7-1 behind Ryne Inman’s 5 solid IP, giving up 1 run and striking out 7. Jarred Kelenic went 1-5, bringing his line on the year to .280/.410/.440.
Game 20, Indians at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Shane Bieber, 7:10pm
Soooo, the M’s are in a bit of a losing streak. Their once unstoppable offense has been slowed considerably, though that’s against some of the better pitchers in the league. Tonight’s opponent hasn’t pitched all that long, but is aiming to join that group, and after a solid 2018, particularly down the stretch, he’s been brilliant thus far in 2019.
Shane Bieber, a righty, has a four seam fastball averaging a touch over 93, and his best pitch is a hard slider around 85-86. He’s also got a big breaking curve that has serious drop considering it’s thrown at 80mph. His biggest asset is his control, as he’s limited walks at every step in pro ball, and a vanishingly small walk rate in Cleveland last year. What’s been surprising is the extent to which Bieber’s gotten strikeouts. He’s striking out batters at higher rates now than he ever did in the minors.
This both is and is not reminiscent of Yusei Kikuchi. Stuff-wise, they’re almost dead ringers. They rely on the same three pitches, with the slider the best of the bunch for both guys. Each averages 93 and change on their rising four seam, though Bieber adds in more armside run. And as I’ve said, while control wasn’t Kikuchi’s calling card in Japan, he’s been quite stingy with free passes in Seattle.
So why is Kikuchi struggling a bit to put hitters away, and why can Bieber do so despite throwing the same pitches at basically the same speed? How can Bieber get guys to miss his FB while they put it in play against Kikuchi? That’s what I’ll be looking for tonight. Kikuchi got better as the night went on yesterday, using his curve especially well to start putting guys away, but he got in trouble in the first giving up hits because batters put the ball in play against his fastball so often – the 0-2 pitch to Hanley Ramirez was a frustrating example.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Encarnacion, DH
5: Bruce, 1B
6: Beckham, SS
7: Healy, 3B
8: Murphy, C
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Leake
The Rainiers are in El Paso tonight, with Tyler Danish on the mound against Padres prospect Cal Quantrill.
Ricardo Sanchez leads Arkansas against NW Arkansas.
Austin Hutchison will start game 1 of a twin bill for Modesto as they face Visalia.
Clay Chandler’s on the mound in West Virginia, trying to keep up with teammate Logan Gilbert, who tossed another gem last night.
Game 19, Indians at Mariners
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Trevor Bauer, 7:10pm
Befitting a team whose mantra is to control the zone, Mariner starters lead all of MLB in walk rate, at under 5%. That’s quite an impressive mark, especially given the league-wide growth in walk rate this April. In part it reflects some choices in the construction of the rotation, but it seems to be the product of coaching as well, as tonight’s starter, Yusei Kikuchi, was never exactly a control pitcher in Japan. Thus, his projections showed a walk rate much higher than he’s demonstrated in his first few starts.
That said, all of this control has come at a cost. The M’s starters have the second WORST K%. They continue to lead the way in balls in play, and with this defense, that’s something of a problem. So while they have a nice ERA, just under 4, they lead the league in unearned runs, which is why the M’s runs-allowed is as high as it is despite the pleasing ERA totals. And here again, Yusei Kikuchi defies expectations. Armed with a lively fastball and a very good slider, he *should* generate whiffs and strikeouts. It just hasn’t happened yet.
Kikuchi’s walked just 3 in 21 2/3 IP, but he has also struck out under 18% of opposing hitters. That’s not awful; this sort of ratio made Hisashi Iwakuma a minor star for several years. Kikuchi’s even matching Iwakuma’s underrated skill of maintaining a very low BABIP. Kikuchi’s slider works a bit like ‘Kuma’s splitter, in that it generates a ton of swings and also some whiffs. The problem here is that Kikuchi’s fastball has played very hitter-friendly in the early-going, generating next to no whiffs and nearly all of the hits he’s given up. It’s not fooling anyone at the moment, despite the fact that his slider remains confusing to hitters. The lack of whiffs mean that more fastballs are put in play in front of this defense, and thus Kikuchi’s already given up 4 unearned runs himself.
On the positive side, though he’s already faced the rebuilding White Sox and Royals, and though the Red Sox have been awful at the plate this year, tonight’s opponent has been far, far worse. The Indians slash line as a team sits at .194/.282/.316, which is essentially tied with Detroit as the worst in the AL. It’s all the more remarkable given that short-time Mariner Carlos Santana has an OBP over .500 and playing like he did several years ago. Worse, they just got rid of one of their more successful hitters, though that’s obviously a very low bar, by DFA’ing Brad Miller. IF Jose Ramirez was one of baseball’s best players in recent years, but has cratered in the early going, and while BABIP is a big part of the problem with his line, the team as a whole is striking out at remarkably high rates. If Kikuchi could use some strikeouts to get going, this is the opposing line-up that can help with that.
His opponent is Trevor Bauer, the tireless pitching tinkerer and at times tiresome personality. After re-designing his slider last year at Driveline Baseball, his big offseason project this year was to refine his change, and it’s now a pitch he’s throwing much more often. I’ve caught a start or two of Bauers, and it’s looked like a great pitch, and it’s helped out when his slider command was off a bit. Iffy command has plagued him a bit this year, as his walk rate is up substantially. But as I’ve talked about a lot, the change-up is a great pitch in that it generates so many swings no matter where it’s thrown. It can get whiffs for Bauer, but it’s the pitch that’s put in play most often against him, and often on pitches below the zone. It’s one reason Bauer’s BABIP is miniscule, and thus he’s pitched better than his FIP would indicate. The M’s faced some very tough pitchers in the Astros series, and things aren’t getting a lot easier tonight.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Encarnacion, 1B
6: Narvaez, C
7: Beckham, SS
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The Rainiers took an 8-0 lead into the 7th inning last night, and ended up losing the game 17-9 in a true PCL classic. RP Taylor Scott, who’d been so successful early on this year, took the loss in one of those cautionary tales about what can happen in the PCL when your command goes wonky. Tim Lopes homered and JP Crawford doubled. The R’s got their revenge today in an early start, winning 10-0 behind 7 shutout innings from Tommy Milone and 2 from Dominican teenager Deivy Florido, who went the final 2 IP, gave up 3 hits, walked one and K’d one. Who the heck is Deivy Florido? Early on, the full-season teams often need extra players when they’ve got a lot of personnel moves, so they’ll pull up players from short-season teams. We saw this in the home opener when Penn Murfee came in to give them some innings despite only pitching for short-season Everett. Florido’s even more remarkable, as today’s game was his stateside debut; he’s only ever pitched in the DSL, and then instead of starting off in the AZL, he gets thrown up to AAA. Cesar Izturis Jr. played a bit for Tacoma and Arkansas before starting in the AZL (he’s with West Virginia now), and going back many years, future major leaguer Austin Bibens-Dirkx made his debut with Tacoma before starting up the chain in Everett. Why is all of this roster shuffling necessary? In the Jerry Dipoto era, the answer is always minor trades. Yesterday, the M’s traded away catcher David Freitas to Milwaukee in exchange for RP Sal Biasi, a Royals draft pick from a few years ago, who’s 23 and had been in the Midwest League. In addition, the R’s lost a couple of relievers to bolster Seattle’s pen, and then lost SP Erik Swanson when Wade LeBlanc hit the IL with a Grade 2 oblique strain. Anyway, Joey Curletta and Ian Miller homered for Tacoma today in the easy win.
The most interesting game in the system last night took place in Arkansas. The bad news is that the Travelers were no-hit in 10 innings by several Tulsa pitchers. The good news is that they won it on a walk-off walk, as the all-important MiLB rule of a runner starting on 2B doomed Tulsa. Tulsa couldn’t score on 5 hits, as Darren McCaughan dominated in 6 IP, striking out 8 without a walk allowed. Not much to talk about hitting-wise, as you’d expect. Justin Dunn starts for the Travs tonight as they host separatist movement Northwest Arkansas and former 4th-round pick and classic MiLB named pitcher Jace Vines. The Travelers were clearly one of the most talented of the M’s affiliates, and, with West Virginia, one of the more prospect-laden groups. They’re playing like it; they’re 8-2, and the only M’s affiliate to be above .500 (the WV Power are 5-5).
Modesto beat Stockton 5-1 on yet another dominant start from righty Ljay Newsome. Newsome’s been a command-control guy, who’d alternate solid starts with some disastrous ones, as he didn’t have the kind of stuff that reliably got strikeouts. That left him to the whims of the BABIP gods, and that partially explains his volatility. He…he appears to have found the kind of stuff that reliably gets strikeouts. The 22-year old struck out 10 against no walks in 6 2/3 IP, and in three starts on the year, he’s now struck out *30* against just 2 walks in only 16 2/3 IP. That’s pretty remarkable, and a great sign. Tonight, the Nuts host Visalia, the D-backs affiliate that’s been a tough team in recent years, and they’re 7-4 in the early going.
West Virginia got rained out, so Augusta couldn’t hit any more Mariners prospects. Logan Gilbert leads the Power today as they host the Lakewood Blue Claws.