Game 8, Angels at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Trevor Cahill, 7:10pm
The M’s are 6-1 and deservedly so. Sure, their bullpen is, uh, a work in progress, and their rotation doesn’t look great, but none of that matters when opposing teams step into the launchpad that is T-Mobile park and face a line-up that leads MLB in WAR. This is fun, and this is a great time to not worry about the sustainability of the performance and just revel in the pure weirdness of it all.
The M’s are fun, but you know what’s even more fun? When you’re good on both sides of the ball. I remember 2000-2001; I know it can be done. To do that, the rotation’s going to have to get better, and that means some improvement from the M’s Marco Gonzales…who’s 2-0. I don’t want these posts to just be a drum-beat of negativity about his velocity, but in my defense, have you seen his velocity these days? This brings up something when we talk about the M’s development of Marco. So many of the specific changes/improvements given for his success have turned out to be baseballing red herrings. There was his supposedly lower arm-slot, but here, look at his vertical release over time:
There was the matter of his improved velocity, which was legitimately true in 2017, but since then…well…:
His new cutter was going to be the key to his success, and that’s *partially* true, but much of his improvement came from two other changes. First, he bifurcated his fastball into a more traditional four-seamer – much straighter than anything he’d thrown before – and tried to accentuate the run on his old fastball to create a sinker. That led to fewer HRs-allowed on FBs in 2018 than in his abbreviated 2017 campaign. Second, his curveball really did look like a new/better pitch, and it was critical to his 2018. Until it stopped being as effective around the middle of the year. HRs will be an issue, but he’s addressed a lot of it, and if he can maintain some of the gains he’s made, he won’t be another Wade LeBlanc – someone whose HR problems keep him perpetually on the edge of playability. Instead, the bigger issue is that batters are swinging and making contact on pitches they used to watch, and that’s driving up his hits-allowed.
Years ago, the M’s had an unheralded prospect who threw 89 but didn’t walk anyone. Some thought this would make him a viable #4-5, whereas others saw an inflated hits-allowed total and thought that the low walk rate was driven by the fact that he’d just throw fastballs down the middle. Both ended up being right some of the time. His name was Doug Fister, and while a good strand rate got him through his first half-season, he gave up a ton of hits early in his career. In 2010, at the peak of the deadball era in Safeco, that was OK, as he didn’t give up HRs and was thus a perfectly fine #5 starter. But something clicked in 2011, and his hits-allowed dropped (it didn’t hurt that his velo ticked up a bit), and he took his talents to Detroit and became a minor star for a while, only faltering when his stuff faded just a bit and the hits kept on piling up.
As a first-round, college-trained hitter, Gonzales kept his hits below his IP on his way up the chain with the Cardinals, and kept it that way in his initial call-up in 2014. But something happened in 2015 and that ratio flipped big time, sending his runs-allowed sky high. The same thing happened in 2017; while the HRs were the proximate cause of his poor season, the wider context was that he allowed a lot of baserunners, and that made each HR (and each successive hit) more damaging. That wave subsided a bit in 2018, as he posted more IPs than hits thanks to a reduction in his BABIP from “ridiculously high” to merely “high.” The problem is that he’s got to bring that BABIP down, and he’s not going to have a lot of help from his defense this year. If he’s going to give up this many baserunners, he’s going to be vastly overrated by, say, Fangraphs WAR. He’s given up 16 hits in just under 12 innings, and I’d like to see evidence that his old curve is back or that he can halt his velo declines. It sounds weird to say about a pitcher who’s won both of his starts thus far (though 21 runs scored in those two games helps a ton), but I feel like Gonzales could go south in a hurry if some of these peripherals don’t change.
The Angels Trevor Cahill was one of the A’s utterly improbable successful starting pitchers last year, but he was only so-so in his first start for the Halos. Meanwhile, the A’s are doing it again, as even Aaron Brooks – SERIOUSLY, Aaron Brooks – was great for them the other night and Mike Fiers and company shook off their Tokyo shellacking and have pitched well. But back to Cahill: he boasts a true starter’s repertoire with two fastballs, a cutter, a curve and a change-up. None of them are all that eye-popping, and he’ll top out at 92-93, sitting 91. When he’s on, he can get a lot of ground balls thanks to his sinker (his primary fastball) and the natural movement of his other pitches. He seems to be going with a cutter this year, which he hadn’t thrown in a few years (he used a slower slider instead). That’s not a new pitch for him – he picked it up with the D-Backs in 2012-13 – but it’s been a while. More importantly, that pitch does NOT have the movement profile of a pitch that’s going to get grounders. His GB% may drop if he maintains this pitch mix, though maybe that’s what the Angels want seeing as their home park suppresses HRs. It may not be what you want tonight, when you’re facing the Seattle DingerMen in a park that’s playing remarkably HR-friendly for some reason.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Encarnacion, DH
6: Narvaez, C
7: Beckham, SS
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Fast Eddie where are you? Cross fingers
Marco apparently received and accepted Marc’s challenge.
He faced a couple of formidable offenses from Oakland and Boston, so maybe that helps explain the excessive hits in his first couple of starts. But it’s still good to see him handle the Angels so well through 8.
Still convinced we are looking at fool’s gold but hey let’s enjoy it while we can
This team has already met my preseason expectations for win total.
This team will inevitably fall back to earth, but I am not complaining about getting off to the best start in franchise history.