Off-day Round-Up
The M’s are off today, heading to Chicago right before a storm that has *already* postponed tomorrow’s contest (which was supposed to be the White Sox’ home opener). Still, a lot’s happening with the team and in baseball, so let’s examine the first week.
1: The M’s may have a new closer in Anthony Swarzak
Swarzak came over from the Mets in the Cano/Edwin deal, and is only a year and a half removed from a brilliant 2017 season that saw him post career highs in strikeout rate and velocity. He spent years as a set-up guy with the Twins, and, following what seemed to be official Twins policy, pitched to contact. For a reliever, his K rate was essentially non-existent, and thus at the mercy of the BABIP gods. They were kind in 2013, but not so much in 2012 or 2014, and he eventually left Minnesota for the Indians org.
The Tribe ditched his sinker for a four-seamer paired with his solid slider, and his K rate spiked, though he still wasn’t exactly effective. He also had trouble staying on the field, so he only pitched 13 innings for them. The following year, he was off to the Yankees, who were in the process of setting records for most sliders thrown and fewest fastballs. Eager to fit in, Swarzak suddenly doubled his slider usage, throwing more breaking balls than fastball in 2016. It didn’t produce results, at least not then, but better velo, more vertical movement, and plenty of strikeouts was too intriguing to stop. So he didn’t, and in 2017, he K’d 91 in 77 IP. He was traded across town to the Mets midway through, as the Yankees simply couldn’t give him enough innings given their cerberus of Chapman/Betances/Robertson a year after Chapman/Betances/Miller.
And then the injuries returned. After a lost season, the Mets moved on, and packaged him with other contracts they were glad to be rid of. If healthy, Swarzak would give the M’s a legitimate bullpen weapon, and his platoon splits aren’t as brutal as you might think for a FB/SL guy. His velo was down a touch last night, but that’s to be expected. If he can get back up to 94-95 by late May, that’d be awesome.
2: The M’s definitely do have a new reliever in Connor Sadzeck, whom they acquired from the Rangers in a minor trade. He’s got premium velocity, averaging nearly 98 last year and sitting 98-99 in an appearance against the M’s late in the year. At 6’7″, he figures to have solid extension, which could further reduce the time batters have to decide to swing. Or, uh, get out of the way. Sadzeck’s had…issues with control, walking 11 in his 9 1/3 IP with Texas. His minor league track record is more encouraging, though he’s not likely to ever be a control pitcher.
He throws a fairly standard four-seamer from a movement perspective, but the velocity could help it play up a bit. His primary breaking ball’s a slider, though he threw a curve in spring training a few years back. That curve shows some intriguing depth and horizontal movement, and I wonder if the M’s will go back to that pitch. The slider’s fine. Slider-y. Obviously, the most important thing is to work on his mechanics to see if he can’t keep the ball in the zone. If he can, he’d be a solid addition to a bullpen that could use some help.
3: The return of Graham MacAree
Former LL writer and long-ago mod at this very site Graham MacAree long ago left the area to work for SBNation, helping produce the uncategorizable brilliance of Jon Bois…content as well as starting the network’s Chelsea FC blog. Graham’s been watching the M’s hot start from his hideout/laboratory in rural France, and has a word of warning for potential M’s bandwagoners: Hope is a trap.
It’s frankly awesome to see Graham write about the M’s again for the first time in a decade or more, but the piece seemed too pessimistic, or perhaps hectoring in its tone for much of M’s twitter. I loved it, but then I’m a pessimist, and includes snippets of Alexander Pope’s translation of the Odyssey, so I’m pretty much the target market for the thing. If you get a chance, I recommend it highly. No one’s saying don’t have fun. We’re saying have fun even if you know the axe will fall.
4: The Brewers are Doing Something
Today, former M’s prospect Freddy Peralta turned in one of the performances of the year, throwing 8 shutout innings at the Reds in a 1-0 win. He struck out 11, walked none, and yielded just 2 hits. That’s cool and all, but the real story was *how* he did it. Peralta threw 106 pitches on the day, and *90* of them were four-seam fastballs.
The Yankees slider-mania that I mentioned above caught on, and as we’ve talked about, baseball’s seeing fewer and fewer fastballs. It’s frankly remarkable that a non-Bartolo pitcher could not just throw a blizzard of FBs at a team, but do so as a way to get strikeouts. The majority of his Ks came on FBs, as they’d pretty much have to. It made his curve that much more effective, but it was something he didn’t want to overexpose, so he’d just paint fast-but-not-THAT-fast four-seamers around the zone and the Reds simply couldn’t touch them.
The thing is, Peralta’s not alone. With Cory Knebel slated for TJ surgery, the Brewers have Josh Hader closing. Just like last year, he’s off to a fast start with 3 saves and 10 Ks in 5 scoreless innings. He’s allowed just 6 balls in play on the young season, just one of which went for a hit. So far, so normal: really good reliever having really good week. That’s not the point. The point is: Hader has thrown 62 pitches this year, and *60* of them have been four-seam fastballs.
It’s a good pitch, and he’s been FB-dominant for a while, at nearly 80% FBs last season. But I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a pitcher get so many whiffs on a pitch that batters absolutely know is coming since Kenley Jansen and Mariano Rivera, who at least had some cut to confuse batters. Hader’s heater has plus rise, and more than he showed last year, but it is neither as fast as a ton of relievers in the game nor as freakishly moving (as, say, this.)
Hader, like Peralta, have to have some deception in their delivery, and I’m wondering if it’s something the Brewers are teaching. Peralta’s movement isn’t too exceptional, though he gets surprising rise from a lower slot. The Brewers lowered his slot this year, giving his pitch a bit of a different shape, though like Hader, he was about as FB-dominant as it’s possible for a starter to be last year.
Something to watch to see if teams start to zig as other teams zag to follow the Yankees/Astros. A related, but distinct, thought came up yesterday as the Angels stared at a ton of Marco Gonzales sinkers but swung like mad against his change and cutter. Gonzales induced only two swings-and-misses on the night, but by getting the Angels to swing at (and thus put in play) HIS pitches and leave his 88mph sinkers alone, he got them to make some terrible contact. Can THAT be taught? Can pitchers use batters’ tendencies (to take on the first pitch, for example), to sneak in-zone fastballs when batters are less likely to swing, and then switch to cambios when they’re more likely to swing? Hopefully.
2019 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
Writing what amounts to 14,000+ words of previews over a short period of time ends up being rather draining on me, to say nothing of the deletions that are needed to streamline reading. I say this as a flimsy apology for free and detailed content. The Rainiers are really a team worth heading down I-5 to see, I just end up loopy and more prone to digressions.
The rotation features two potential major league starters, one MLB vet, and two guys who haven’t made it yet but seemingly could with the right improvements. The bullpen will become more or less familiar depending on the needs of the parent club and has quite a few arms that are viable or near viable major leaguers. Catching, I think is geared more towards pitching development, which again, isn’t bad at this level. There are a few exciting infield starters and the outfield is really, really fast and thus will be limiting the variables there for the flyball pitchers on the roster. So go visit Cheney Stadium, unless the Mariners continue their absurd run, in which case, do it anyway but wait for an off-day or a road trip.
2019 Arkansas Travelers Preview
Here we go for a third season in Arkansas with the Travelers. They have a possum and a horse for mascots. Big fan. More of the possum than the horse. Big on hissing at stuff and playing dead to avoid threats. What were we talking about?
This team is, like the West Virginia squad, a rather talented group and so I found myself with a bit to say. Sure, the catching is a repeat of last year, but that may bring with it some added polish with which to direct the pitchers. For the rotation we have two, two-and-a-half guys who could be strong contributors if things break right for them, though the others are nothing to dismiss. The bullpen has a few standouts and is certainly a diverse bunch of velocities, angles, and ways of getting results. The infield has Evan White plus some likely producers, but the outfield could feature three viable major leaguers in any given day and that’s exciting. Potential and aptitude make for some entertaining baseball.
2019 Modesto Nuts Preview
This roster is… uh… familiar? Of the twenty-five players listed for opening day, fourteen of them had already played on the 2018 Modesto squad, which went 62-78. The Mariners have restocked parts of the system and look to be fairly talented throughout, but this one looks to be filled with miscellany.
The rotation appears to be a blend of “consistency” and “baffling inconsistency,” which I’d expect to lead to lots of ups and downs. The bullpen, when good, has a chance to be quite good, so leads if gained could be retained. Catching, or at least the starting catcher, is probably the biggest star on the roster. The outfield is full of guys who were formerly well-regarded. The infield is cool if you like Gritty Dudes with Dirty Uniforms and Intangibles and less so if you don’t.
2019 West Virginia Power Preview
This was not an offseason move that I was anticipating. Sure, I had been goading the Mariners for years to buy a Cal League franchise and stop with all this High Desert nonsense, but the quirks of the Midwestern League, with its routine early-season snow-outs, had become the price of doing business for me. Moreover, I liked the Midwest League, and had been friends with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers broadcaster since back when they were an affiliate. Now we’re operating a full-season affiliate in a part of the country unfamiliar to me outside of our brief dalliance as the parent club of the Pulaski franchise in the Appalachian League. Now I have to commit to memory a whole new set of park factors.
The West Virginia Power will be among the more exciting teams in a system that can now use that adjective without a smirking irony. Even without Stowers, the outfield is poised to be a star attraction the likes of which we haven’t had in a while. The rotation has some high potential in spots and is competent overall. For catching, we might have the second-best starter on the farm, or one of the more interesting ones. Bullpen could be good, but has a few question marks. The infield looks to be defensively solid and offensively hit or miss. Overall, the look is that of a competitive team with a few fun top prospects.
Game 8, Angels at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Trevor Cahill, 7:10pm
The M’s are 6-1 and deservedly so. Sure, their bullpen is, uh, a work in progress, and their rotation doesn’t look great, but none of that matters when opposing teams step into the launchpad that is T-Mobile park and face a line-up that leads MLB in WAR. This is fun, and this is a great time to not worry about the sustainability of the performance and just revel in the pure weirdness of it all.
The M’s are fun, but you know what’s even more fun? When you’re good on both sides of the ball. I remember 2000-2001; I know it can be done. To do that, the rotation’s going to have to get better, and that means some improvement from the M’s Marco Gonzales…who’s 2-0. I don’t want these posts to just be a drum-beat of negativity about his velocity, but in my defense, have you seen his velocity these days? This brings up something when we talk about the M’s development of Marco. So many of the specific changes/improvements given for his success have turned out to be baseballing red herrings. There was his supposedly lower arm-slot, but here, look at his vertical release over time:
There was the matter of his improved velocity, which was legitimately true in 2017, but since then…well…:
His new cutter was going to be the key to his success, and that’s *partially* true, but much of his improvement came from two other changes. First, he bifurcated his fastball into a more traditional four-seamer – much straighter than anything he’d thrown before – and tried to accentuate the run on his old fastball to create a sinker. That led to fewer HRs-allowed on FBs in 2018 than in his abbreviated 2017 campaign. Second, his curveball really did look like a new/better pitch, and it was critical to his 2018. Until it stopped being as effective around the middle of the year. HRs will be an issue, but he’s addressed a lot of it, and if he can maintain some of the gains he’s made, he won’t be another Wade LeBlanc – someone whose HR problems keep him perpetually on the edge of playability. Instead, the bigger issue is that batters are swinging and making contact on pitches they used to watch, and that’s driving up his hits-allowed.
Years ago, the M’s had an unheralded prospect who threw 89 but didn’t walk anyone. Some thought this would make him a viable #4-5, whereas others saw an inflated hits-allowed total and thought that the low walk rate was driven by the fact that he’d just throw fastballs down the middle. Both ended up being right some of the time. His name was Doug Fister, and while a good strand rate got him through his first half-season, he gave up a ton of hits early in his career. In 2010, at the peak of the deadball era in Safeco, that was OK, as he didn’t give up HRs and was thus a perfectly fine #5 starter. But something clicked in 2011, and his hits-allowed dropped (it didn’t hurt that his velo ticked up a bit), and he took his talents to Detroit and became a minor star for a while, only faltering when his stuff faded just a bit and the hits kept on piling up.
As a first-round, college-trained hitter, Gonzales kept his hits below his IP on his way up the chain with the Cardinals, and kept it that way in his initial call-up in 2014. But something happened in 2015 and that ratio flipped big time, sending his runs-allowed sky high. The same thing happened in 2017; while the HRs were the proximate cause of his poor season, the wider context was that he allowed a lot of baserunners, and that made each HR (and each successive hit) more damaging. That wave subsided a bit in 2018, as he posted more IPs than hits thanks to a reduction in his BABIP from “ridiculously high” to merely “high.” The problem is that he’s got to bring that BABIP down, and he’s not going to have a lot of help from his defense this year. If he’s going to give up this many baserunners, he’s going to be vastly overrated by, say, Fangraphs WAR. He’s given up 16 hits in just under 12 innings, and I’d like to see evidence that his old curve is back or that he can halt his velo declines. It sounds weird to say about a pitcher who’s won both of his starts thus far (though 21 runs scored in those two games helps a ton), but I feel like Gonzales could go south in a hurry if some of these peripherals don’t change.
The Angels Trevor Cahill was one of the A’s utterly improbable successful starting pitchers last year, but he was only so-so in his first start for the Halos. Meanwhile, the A’s are doing it again, as even Aaron Brooks – SERIOUSLY, Aaron Brooks – was great for them the other night and Mike Fiers and company shook off their Tokyo shellacking and have pitched well. But back to Cahill: he boasts a true starter’s repertoire with two fastballs, a cutter, a curve and a change-up. None of them are all that eye-popping, and he’ll top out at 92-93, sitting 91. When he’s on, he can get a lot of ground balls thanks to his sinker (his primary fastball) and the natural movement of his other pitches. He seems to be going with a cutter this year, which he hadn’t thrown in a few years (he used a slower slider instead). That’s not a new pitch for him – he picked it up with the D-Backs in 2012-13 – but it’s been a while. More importantly, that pitch does NOT have the movement profile of a pitch that’s going to get grounders. His GB% may drop if he maintains this pitch mix, though maybe that’s what the Angels want seeing as their home park suppresses HRs. It may not be what you want tonight, when you’re facing the Seattle DingerMen in a park that’s playing remarkably HR-friendly for some reason.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Encarnacion, DH
6: Narvaez, C
7: Beckham, SS
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Game 7, Angels at Mariners
King Felix vs. Chris Stratton, 7:10pm
I don’t know how many more times I’ll get to say it, so to all of you, a very happy Felix day. The M’s rotation has settled in as probably the lowest-velo group in the game, just as they did last year. When Marco Gonzales was acquired, there was a lot of talk about his improved velocity, but that’s all gone now. Mike Leake’s throwing softer, too. Wade LeBlanc never really threw hard to begin with. It hasn’t hurt them per se, Leake is pretty much always Leake, and Marco broke out last year despite that troubling drop.
Felix, though, simply couldn’t adapt to life at 90-91. It’s too bad, because the great high point of his career came AFTER a huge drop in velo, when he slid from 97 to 94-ish. The further drop reduced his margin for error and sapped the effectiveness of his change (though it’s really his FB that’s been tattooed the past few years). The M’s have tried working with him on pitch mix, on different fastballs, and maybe developing a cutter. That’s been…not terribly successful, and as much as I love him, Felix probably shares a modicum of blame there. But the bigger thing that I’m not sure has been tried is just reversing the velo drop. That would’ve sounded like alchemy a few years ago, but it is very much a commmonplace practice now. Brandon McCarthy reversed his regular old age-related velo declines and gained several MPH later in his career. Charlie Morton, too. This isn’t crazy, and it’s possible it’d be more in line with how Felix wants to compete, and to be fair, maybe they’ve tried. But on a staff where velo drops are common and the team seems to put less value on pure miles-per-hour than others, I’m not sure it’s going to happen. Prove me wrong, M’s!
Chris Stratton has been a member of the Angels for roughly 10 days, having come over from the Giants late in spring training after losing his rotation spot. He was traded for a fairly fungible middle-inning reliever, which says a lot about how back-end starters with MLB experience are valued right now. Stratton throws 91 or so with a straight four-seamer, but he’s attracted some attention due to a freakishly high spin-rate curve ball, his best pitch. It’s generally been effective, or at least MORE effective than his other offerings, but that was a low bar in 2018. He wasn’t bad in 2017, so it’s a great pick-up by Anaheim who saw SF with a roster crunch and offered to help them out by sending a pitcher who had MiLB options remaining. A young-ish no-name reliever with options swapped for a #5 starter… that about sums up 2019 baseball, right?
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Encarnacion, DH
6: Narvaez, C
7: Beckham, SS
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: El Cartelua