Game 34, Mariners at Indians
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Shane Bieber, 4:10pm
The M’s embark on a 10-game road trip that’ll see them play the Yankees and Red Sox after they finish this three game set with Cleveland. This is big, as the bats have been faltering, the pitching staff under siege, and the defense…no, let’s talk about something else.
Yusei Kikuchi’s coming off of his first shortened start, which means he should be well-rested, or perhaps appropriately rested. He’s not been an ace, but he’s been solid for the M’s thus far, and by BP’s DRA stat, he’s been their most valuable starter. This, of course, is something of a low bar, though to be fair, it rates Felix decently. It just doesn’t have much time for Marco Gonzales, to say nothing of Mike Leake, who rates as the single LEAST valuable pitcher in the game. But this isn’t about DRA, it’s about Kikuchi. As a lefty with a 93 MPH fastball and a quality slider, he shouldn’t need to make too many adjustments in order to become an effective middle-of-the-rotation starter. What he needs, and what the M’s are hopefully giving him, is a roadmap to get there.
I’ve been saying a lot this year that his fastball’s being hit too hard. No, it’s not a Paxton-like blazing heater, but it doesn’t need to be. Anyone else out there with a similar fastball who’s made it play at the big league level? Meet Tampa’s Jalen Beeks, a hidden-starter for the Rays – a guy who pitches several innings after an opener. He’s small, but sits 93 with his four seamer that’s a dead-ringer for Kikuchi’s by pitch tracking data. To top it all off, he’s even got the same hidden-ball delivery:
Beeks had some control issues in the minors, mostly in the Red Sox system, and he brought that with him to the majors last year. Between the walks and some dinger issues, his fastball wasn’t good enough for him to get to his best pitches (his best pitch is a change-up, for the record). This year, he’s moved about 2′ on the rubber – back towards 3B, so he’s delivering the pitch pretty much right on the center line instead of coming from out towards 1B. That seems to have helped him control and command the pitch, and thus he’s getting more first-pitch strikes (though he throws plenty of 1st-pitch curve balls, too). Moving over also helps him keep his FB in on righties, something that’s hard for many lefties.
By contrast, if you look at a heatmap of Kikuchi’s FB usage to righties, it fills the zone. This is a great recipe to never walk anyone, and indeed, Kikuchi’s is toeing the company line regarding the zone and the control thereof. Compare that to Beeks’ usage. I should mention here that Kikuchi’s release point is slightly lower, but very similar to Beeks’ in 2018. I wouldn’t mind seeing Kikuchi make a similar shift on the rubber and see if that helps him keep his fastball in under RHBs’ hands as opposed to starting from far away from right-handed bats and traveling in to them.
Today, the M’s face Shane Bieber, who was a tricky match-up for them when they saw him at home a few weeks ago. He’s since had a solid start against Houston and a disaster against Atlanta, so perhaps the league is booking him somewhat.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, CF
3: Vogelbach, DH
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Santana, LF
6: Bruce, RF
7: Narvaez, C
8: Beckham, SS
9: Healy, 3B
SP: Kikuchi
The M’s have their lefty-heavy line-up in there to face the right-handed Bieber. The Tribe’s got Francisco Lindor back, which is good, as their replacement SS that we saw in Seattle were pretty darn awful. The injury news is still generally poor for Cleveland, who just lost Corey Kluber to a potentially fractured forearm when he was struck by a line drive. With Clevinger and now Kluber out, it gets harder for Cleveland to hold off the charging Minnesota Twins.
Logan Gilbert was promoted to High-A and made his debut with Modesto last night. He had a rough first couple innings, then settled in; his final line was 4 1/3 IP with 5 H, 3 R allowed on 2 BB and 7 Ks.
Justin Dunn and Arkansas took apart Frisco last night 13-2. Dunn went 7, allowed both runs, and struck out 6 against no walks (33:B seasonal K:BB ratio). Jake Fraley had 2 HRs and looks pretty ready for Tacoma, especially if Bishop is going to be in Seattle a while.
Tacoma blanked Salt Lake 4-0 on bullpen day, as Tyler Cloyd, Robin Leyer, David McKay and Parker Markel combined to 4-hit the Bees. The Bees’ pitchers struck out a ton of R’s, but couldn’t prevent Shed Long from going deep.
Clay Chandler takes his Sally-League-Leading 0.31 ERA into Greensboro today, while Ricardo Sanchez takes HIS Texas-League-leading ERA into Frisco to face the RoughRiders. Jon Niese is leading no leagues, but will lead the Rainiers against Albuquerque tonight at Cheney Stadium. Modesto heads to Stockton to face the Ports in a series beginning tonight.
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