Game 48, Twins at Mariners
Wade LeBlanc vs Jose Berrios, 7:10pm
Just as this series taught us that Erik Swanson wasn’t quite ready for regular rotation duty, so it reminded us that Marco Gonzales is *always* on a knife’s edge. When his command is great, he can confuse and confound hitters. But if something isn’t quite right, he’s throwing 89 MPH fastballs without pinpoint command, which…which is hard. To his credit, his command is good enough that he can get by most games. But yesterday reminds us that most is not the same as all.
If anyone knows that struggle, it’s Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc’s velo is among the lowest in the game, and while he has an excellent change, he’s got to contrast it with fastballs. And now he’s got to do so while working his way back from injury.
Tonight, the Mariners face the Twins young ace-in-waiting Jose Berrios. Berrios hasn’t been the most consistent, but he has an interesting, hard curve that can be a true outpitch. It’s half-slider, half-curve, and it seems made for viral gifs on twitter.
Interestingly, it seems to be losing its mojo a bit this year. His fastballs are picking up the slack, especially to righties. But it’s righties are pummeling his odd hybrid breaking ball. Can the M’s righties take advantage?
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Vogelbach, DH
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Narvaez, C
6: Healy, 3B
7: Bruce, LF
8: Crawford, SS
9: Smith, CF
SP: Wade. LeBlanc.
Game 47, Twins at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Martin Perez, 7:10pm
You know, I’m starting to think Erik Swanson may not be the answer right now. After another disastrous start in which he gave up 4 HRs to the admittedly-powerful Twins, Swanson’s ERA is over 8 and his FIP is creeping up near 7. That’s not going to play. I’m not sure if the M’s are going to wait until Wade LeBlanc comes back, which could be quite soon, or swap out his turn in the rotation with either Justus Sheffield (who pitches today, so that’s less likely) or Ricardo Sanchez (who pitched last night, same as Swanson). Swanson’s an interesting arm, but he needs to make adjustments, and may need more AAA seasoning. This is one of the odd cases where the PCL using the same juiced ball as MLB can be helpful; it’d be less useful for his particular struggles if he could get away allowing fly balls in the spacious, somewhat pitcher-friendly confines of Cheney Stadium. With the juiced ball, no matter where he is, he’s going to need to learn to avoid elevated/well-struck contact. Fittingly, he’s been optioned back to Tacoma tonight.
One of the great things about baseball is the way the most unlikely players can make some adjustment and get good. Both BP and Fangraphs had articles this week about Tommy LaStella, the utility guy with the Cubs who’s turned into a power-hitting force with the Angels this year. Justin Turner is a classic example. Jason Vargas had that out-of-nowhere run in the first half of 2017, though he hadn’t been out-and-out bad before then. Brandon McCarthy years ago is another good example, and tonight’s starter Marco Gonzales is trying to turn into another. But for me, there are few such examples more perplexing than what Martin Perez is doing this year.
A prospect darling as a teenager, he made the Rangers in 2012 and had been in Texas ever since, reliably disappointing those who saw him as an uber-prospect. The reasons were pretty simple: he didn’t miss bats and he walked too many. He put a lot of runners on, and in part due to the lack of an outpitch, couldn’t strand them, meaning his ERA was generally worse than his meh FIP. And it wasn’t growing pains, either – not after seven years. Here’s a table of his K% and K%-BB% by year. It’s consistent, and consistently bad:
| Year | K% | K-BB% |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 14.1 | 5.7 |
| 2013 | 15.9 | 8.9 |
| 2014 | 16.9 | 7.7 |
| 2015 | 14.2 | 7.1 |
| 2016 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| 2017 | 14.2 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 13.1 | 4 |
So the M’s are gonna win, right? Well, here’s his numbers THIS year:
| Year | K% | K-BB% |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24.0 | 14.6 |
I don’t get it. Perez signed a one-year, $3.5M deal with Minnesota and started the year in the bullpen. It went poorly, as he gave up 8 runs in 8 1/3 IP, but the Twins faced some injuries, and Perez had tons of starting experience, and…well, he’s pitched 38 IP as a starter, gone 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA and struck out 34 and walked only 9. He walked 9 in his 8 1/3 IP as a reliever! Who is this person, and why is he wearing Martin Perez’s jersey?
There are a couple of ways in which Perez looks different from his Texas days, but I wouldn’t expect either of them – or the combination of them – to be THIS effective. First, he’s throwing harder. He’s been around 95 this year, after several years between 92-94. It’s better, it’s an improvement, but he sucked when he threw 93-94, so going to 94-95 doesn’t seem that transformational. Second, he’s now throwing a cutter, a pitch he’s not used before, as his primary pitch, and sprinking in the sinker and four-seamer that used to be his bread and butter (he’d throw his two fastballs 60% of the time or more with Texas). That sounds like a big deal, but the new cutter is not wholly different from his old slider. It’s slightly faster than the fastest iteration of his slider, but then, so are his fastballs. It’s got a bit of gloveside cut and decent sink compared to his fastball, but that description works for his old slider (or at least one version of it). Whatever happened here, it’s been very effective, as Perez blanked Houston over 8 IP three starts ago, then blanked the Jays in Toronto over 7 IP the next. I have no idea what witchcraft produced this, but I don’t like it. I demand Perez go back to being boringly mediocre, or, failing that, that the M’s force him to divulge his secrets. If this is just small-sample-nothingness, then let the regression begin tonight, and let it begin loudly.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Santana, LF
5: Healy, 1B
6: Beckham, 3B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Smith, CF
SP: Gonzales
The Nick Rumbelow experiment is officially over, as the M’s DFA’d the righty reliever today. With that roster spot, the M’s signed old friend Andrew Moore, who they’d previously traded to Tampa, and who was recently waived by the Giants. In addition, the M’s DFA’d Zac Rosscup, who had persistent difficulties finding the strike zone, but induced a lot of strikeouts when he did. To take their place, the M’s have brought back RP Matt Festa and Ryan Garton. Garton was another reliever who came over in a trade with Tampa, and as I noted when the M’s picked up Rumbelow, Garton’s pitches moved eerily similarly to Rumbelow’s. The M’s were able to keep Garton after DFA’ing him in October of 2017 after a 13-game trial in Seattle. Andrew Moore never got going in the Rays system, and has suffered through an utterly disastrous 2019; the M’s are sending him to AA to see if they can help him find the form he had in 2016-17.
Ljay Newsome is getting bored in the Cal League. The righty went 6 shutout IP last night, yielding 3 H, 1 BB and striking out 9. The Nuts lost it 1-0 to a walk-off HR in the 9th, but maaaan. Newsome needs a new challenge.
The aforementioned Ricardo Sanchez had his third straight rough start in a loss to Tulsa, but he’s a lefty, on the 40-man, and has looked solid at times this year. The winning pitcher in last night’s game was ex-Tacoma Rainier Justin De Fratus, and Tulsa continues the theme tonight, as ex-Rainier Logan Bawcom will make his first start of the year for the Drillers.
Tacoma destroyed Reno 14-5 despite two HRs by the Aces’ Kevin Cron, the brother of Minnesota’s CJ Cron. The Cron boys did a lot of damage against the M’s/their affiliates last night. Thankfully, Cron couldn’t keep up with a Tacoma line-up that bashed 23 hits including 3 HRs. Shed Long and Braden Bishop continue to be as unstoppable at AAA as they were…stoppable in limited MLB action. Justus Sheffield gets the start tonight.
Game 46, Twins at Mariners
Erik Swanson vs. Michael Pineda, 7:10pm
The Twins come to town with a 4 1/2 game lead in the AL Central and the 2nd-best record in the American League. Powered by a deep, potent offense, they’re scoring over 5.2 runs per game and trail the M’s and Astros for the lead in HRs by just 7. And while the M’s have hit more total dingers, they’ve done so in 168 more plate appearances.
But they’re also getting a lot more out of their pitching staff than anyone expected. Jake Odorizzi was an intriguing acquisition last year, but he face-planted a bit as the Twins fell back after the successes of 2017. He’s taken a big step forward this year, though, leading the team in WAR thanks to a much-improved strand rate. That’s the case with Jose Berrios as well, as his ERA is now well below his FIP for the first time as runners are stranded on base. Part of that is their excellent team defense, but another part has been the growth and development in their bullpen. Their overall numbers don’t reflect it thanks to some sketchy work put in by the up-and-down guys, but the core of the bullpen – Taylor Rogers, Trevor May and, inexplicably, ex-M’s org-depth-guy Ryne Harper – have been excellent.
Michael Pineda’s one of a few reclamation projects the Twins have, and the one I’d have bet on working out. But thus far, Pineda’s struggled with the juiced ball and a slower fastball than he’s used to. Instead, ex-Rangers lefty Martin Perez has been the cream of the scrap-heap-crop, but you’ve got to think that Pineda can figure something out if he stays healthy. He’s still a fastball-slider pitcher, and his fastball – while it no longer sits at 95 – still has the same almost cutter-ish movement without a lot of rise. But as always when you think of Pineda, you think of his slider, the one Dave Niehaus famously called “diabolical.” The problem this year, after another long injury layoff, is that his slider is refusing to slide. It’s never been big in terms of horizontal movement, but it would get to the glove side. This year, it’s staying glove side. If his fastball had tons of horizontal/arm-side run, maybe that could work. But with a straight fastball, a straight slider pairs…less well, and batters are hitting better off of his slider this year than his fastball.
Going back to his first season, many of us worried that he’d show platoon splits given his slider-happy ways and so-so change-up. That hasn’t happened; he’s done just as well against lefties in his career. Instead, the decline in effectiveness in his slider has led righties to fare a lot better recently. This isn’t a guy they really need a lefty-line-up for, and with Haniger/Encarnacion, I guess they can’t, really.
Back with the team is CF Mallex Smith, who couldn’t hit at all in the month before his demotion, but could not STOP hitting in AAA. That’ll help, as Braden Bishop looked a touch overmatched in his first taste of MLB. So too did Shed Long, who was optioned back to make room for Smith. Long went 0-9 in 11 PAs, and it’ll be good for him to get regular time again in Tacoma.
Erik Swanson needs a good outing against someone other than the Indians, and I’m not sure this is the line-up that’ll allow that to happen. That said, old friend Nelson Cruz isn’t in the line-up as he works his way back from a wrist injury he picked up on Sunday. He’s not on the IL, so we may see him this series, but I’m sure Swanson won’t mind facing CJ Cron at the DH spot instead tonight.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Santana, LF
6: Narvaez, C
7: Healy, 3B
8: Crawford, SS
9: Smith, CF
SP: Swanson
Game 45, Athletics at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Brett Anderson, 7:10pm
The M’s look to build on an exciting comeback win last night and get a mini-sweep of this two-game set with the A’s. Yusei Kikuchi was solid, but gave up 3 solo HRs, and his relievers yielded 2 more solo shots. The M’s were quiet after Mitch Haniger’s leadoff dinger, but tied the game late on a 3-run shot to CF by Daniel Vogelbach. It does not appear that the ball is any less bouncy in May as it was in April, which is frankly not great news for M’s hurlers, but it may help an offense that’s been stuck for a few weeks.
With all of the talk about the seemingly inexorable rise in strikeouts and average velocity in the league, tonight’s game offers a rare glimpse of an old-school clash between pitch-to-contact guys without big fastballs. The national attention will be on Chris Paddack-vs-Clayton Kershaw or Charlie Morton-vs-Caleb Smith, but we get a different kind of drama: two guys desperately trying to hang on. Graph Mike Leake’s average fastball velocity over time and you get just a simple downward slope. If anything, he’s accelerating, and his average sinker is now under 88 MPH. Only Kyle Hendricks has a slower average fastball among qualified pitchers (at least until Wade LeBlanc comes back). Worse, he’s not getting ground balls anymore, as his GB% has gone from 53.7% in 2016 and 2017 to 48.7% last year and all the way down to 44.4% this year. BrooksBaseball thinks he throwing a four-seamer more, but it’s close enough to his sinker it’s hard to be sure. What IS certain is that the batted ball results on the sinker are manifestly different than they once were; it’s simply no longer a reliable ground ball offering. He’s responded by throwing more secondaried: a change that still IS a great GB% pitch, a slider and a cutter that, like his sinker, has become less and less of a grounder-inducing pitch over time.
So: Leake’s throwing slower and batters are elevating it more in a league with a juiced baseball. What could possibly go wro…oh, right. Leake’s HR/9 is over 2, and it’s killing the value of an increased K rate (the product, I guess, of throwing more breaking balls/offspeed pitches?). He’s stranding runners as well; if he paired his raw results with last year’s strand rate, things would get very ugly in a hurry. All of this is true, but there’s something about watching him work, watching him perform the high-wire act of running through a line-up multiple times armed only with an 87 MPH sinker and assorted slower pitches, that’s pretty compelling.
Brett Anderson, tonight’s opponent, is fighting a similar battle. The oft-injured lefty has hung around the past few years by seemingly reinventing himself at each stop. Last year, he was a pitch-to-contact guy with a very low walk rate, a lefty version of Mike Leake, almost – he had a 55% GB%, so he was perhaps more Leake than Leake. He’d walked too many in previous years and had been essentially replacement level, so the focus on strike-throwing helped, even though at this point in his career, he can’t miss bats (meaning it can be dangerous to be around the plate too much). In 2014-15, he was an extreme GB pitcher, and used that to run low HR rates, which again helped overcome low K rates. This year, the walks have returned and his GB rate *and* K rates have dropped. By K:BB, he looks totally cooked. A freakishly low HR rate has kept him around, but it’s hard to count on something like that. He’s responded to the age-related decline in his natural stuff by pulling an anti-Leake. Instead of abandoning his sinker for a flurry of offspeed stuff, he’s throwing it more. When he’s behind, he doesn’t throw a get-me-over pitch – he’ll allow the batter to walk. He walked 5 batters last year (and plunked 2) on sinkers – the entire year. Thus far in 2019, he’s already walked 8 on sinkers. He’s already matched 2018’s number of walks issued on sliders as well. All of this leads to funny splits. By BBREF’s splits, batters have an OBP over .500 against him in PAs that go through counts in which the batter’s ahead – but critically, they’re slugging under .400. Leake is just the opposite, with a lower OBP, but with batters slugging nearly .800 in those counts. Get ahead, and Anderson will just pitch to the next guy. Leake won’t quit in any PA, but he’s paid a price for that doggedness.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Santana, LF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Healy, 3B
6: Bruce, RF
7: Beckham, 2B
8: Murphy, C
9: Crawford, SS
SP: Leake
The Rainiers came back from a 6-0 deficit to beat Las Vegas today. Christian Bergman was bombed for 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning, but Ryan Garton and then Taylor Scott were great in relief to hold the Aviators while the offense woke up. Braden Bishop hit 2 HRs and Austin Nola added another.
Game 44, Athletics at Mariners
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Mike Fiers, 7:10pm
Ok. So the M’s came back to earth following their amazing start, but at this point, it feels more like they’ve hit the ground and are stuck several feet below the surface. Their offense’s season line is still quite good, but it’s amazing how bad the team looks when they stop scoring 7-8 runs per game.
Of course, even at 7-8 runs, it wouldn’t have helped in that Boston series. That was about as ugly as I’ve seen the M’s in quite a while, and I covered the 2010-2012 M’s. Their starting pitching has regressed, but it’s worth noting that today’s starter, Yusei Kikuchi, may present a small ray of hope.
Here’s a fact that is not fun, but incredibly illuminating: after giving up a few more unearned runs yesterday, Marco Gonzales has now given up more unearned runs on the year than the Angels, Astros, Rays, Reds and Rockies. Like, the entire teams. There’s been a lot written already about the M’s poor defense, and at this rate, there’ll be a lot more as they make their run at history. But maaaaan, is it hard to watch. It was kind of funny when Beckham would hit a HR or two for every error. It’s…it’s less funny now.
The defense *deserves* the blame here, but it’s important to note that the M’s pitching style magnifies the impact of their allergic-to-leather position-player teammates. The M’s allow the most balls in play out of any team, just fractionally ahead of tonight’s opponents, the A’s. As in recent years, the M’s are built around allowing defenders to make plays, it’s just that Jarrod Dyson isn’t here anymore, and they don’t really HAVE defenders. With a staff who missed more bats, the M’s would give their fielders less opportunities for embarrassment, though of course that’d cost more money.
It hasn’t all been a waste. Omar Narvaez was available in part because of a bad defensive reputation that seems pretty well earned, but at this point, I don’t care. I believe he’s cost the staff with poor framing, but again, I wonder if that matters less to teams whose pitchers are just going to give up contact anyway. It would still matter, of course, but I can’t think it would be the same for teams whose pitchers strike people out. But beyond that, he’s hitting so well that I’ll look past suspect defense. The M’s needed to upgrade their batting line at the position, and they’ve done so in spades. Narvaez is one reason why the catching position – lambasted in recent years for low and declining offensive production – is enjoying a bit of a recovery this year. Of course, like everything involving the M’s, that’s a double-edged sword. It’s awesome to see the M’s get an under-the-radar C and watch him go nuts on opposing pitchers, but then you see that hey, so did the Astros, and wait, what the hell’s going on with the Twins?.
The M’s face Mike Fiers, who’s coming off of his second no-hitter, a 130+ pitch effort against Cincinnati. It was a strange game, as it didn’t start until 9pm or so due to problems with the lights at the Oakland coliseum. But it was a reminder of what can happen when you have a pitcher whose true-talent BABIP is one of the lowest in the league, and you play an April game in Oakland. It’s still incredibly rare, but if you’re gonna get a no-hitter, Mike Fiers-in-Oakland has a better chance than most. Which is kind of funny to say about a pitcher who’s been hit really hard this year, but that’s baseball for you.
We’ll have to see if the A’s ask the umps to check Kikuchi’s hat or glove for pine tar…
1: Haniger, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Santana, LF
6: Narvaez, C
7: Bruce, RF
8: Healy, 3B
9: Long, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
Sounds like Kyle Seager is joining the Rainiers in Las Vegas to start his rehab assignment, and that he’ll be ready to come off the IL on schedule later in the month. This club could really, really use him.
Game 43, Mariners at Red Sox – The King Has Fallen
Marco Gonzales vs. Hector Velazquez vs. persistent rain, probably-not-10:05am
The M’s grabbed a 4-0 lead in the first, and then watched it all burn yesterday in a thoroughly dispiriting 9-5 loss. Felix was mostly solid through 2, and then hit a wall in the 3rd, and left with one out and the game tied. The bullpen quickly untied it, and Felix was charged with 7 runs. Worse, he’s now been placed on the IL with shoulder pain, saying he felt “pinching” in his right shoulder on his last few pitches. Thankfully, his velocity didn’t seem to be impacted, as he threw a 90+ fastball a pitch or two before coming out. The flip side is that all of his secondaries aren’t working anymore.
If there’s anything good to come out of this, it’s that this opens the door for the MLB debut of one Parker Markel, a former Rays farmhand who pitched in the independent American Association last year. He always threw hard, but struggled to put batters away, posting K/9 in the 7 range. Despite that, he made it up to AAA in 2016 before getting released. That K rate jumped in independent ball, and the M’s pounced this offseason. Would he look more like the org guy he was in his last taste of affiliated baseball, or more like the power arm strikeout artist in Sioux City? The answer was neither, really. He was good in independent ball, but the guy we’ve seen first in Arkansas and then in Tacoma has been utterly untouchable.
Markel struck out 18 in 7 2/3 IP in AA, or 18 of the 27 hitters to face him. He walked just 2, and gave up 2 hits and no runs. Called up to AAA, he’s struck out 17 in 9 2/3 IP, giving him a K/9 of over 18 on the year. He was not terribly likely to earn a call-up, but he’s made it impossible to keep him down.
The M’s also recalled Dan Altavilla, who struggled in Tacoma before righting the ship a bit in Arkansas. To make room, the M’s are optioning Braden Bishop back to Tacoma after he went 2-20 with 7 Ks and no BBs. He’ll get another shot soon, but with Mallex Smith stinging the ball, it’s likely we’ll see Smith early next week. That means one of Altavilla/Markel will likely head down.
The M’s take on 30-year old righty swingman Hector Velazquez today (if the game gets played). A mexican league vet, the Sox picked him up based on his control and a solid split-fingered fastball. He’s pitched in a few seasons, mostly out of the pen, and has been pretty good for someone with no prospect pedigree. The splitter is one of my favorite pitches, and he shows why: it limits platoon splits, it induces a ton of swings, and it gets ground balls. All of that’s true for Velasquez, who gets a ton of grounders with both his sinker and the split. There’s surprisingly little separation in movement or velo between those two pitches, but he’s largely made it work. Unfortunately, batters are swinging a bit less this year, and that’s pushed his walk rate higher.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Vogelbach, 1B
5: Santana, LF
6: Narvaez, C
7: Bruce, RF
8: Beckham, 3B
9: Long, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Game 42, Mariners at Red Sox
King Felix vs. Rick Porcello, 10:05am
Happy Felix Day. Maybe that feels perfunctory to you, but really do try to summon the joy of watching an M’s legend pitch in Fenway. That near-no hitter in Daisuke’s home debut feels like another century, sure, but I’ll never forget it.
The M’s are officially in a tailspin now, having dropped below .500 on the day the Red Sox finally climb above that mark. The pitching staff is in shambles, but hopefully the additions of JP Crawford and Shed Long add interest to the games as well as improve the team’s cringe-worthy defense.
Today they face Rick Porcello, the former Cy Young winner who personified the Sox disastrous start. He’s never been a model of consistency, but HR troubles mixed with something new for him this April: serious control problems. He’s gotten better, but his season line remains ugly.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Santana, LF
6: Bruce, RF
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Long, 2B
SP: Please, Felix.
Dee Gordon isn’t in the IL as his hand was not broken, as initially feared. Dylan Moore on the other hand IS on the IL which opened the door for Shed Long, who’ll make his MLB debut.
Game 41, Mariners at Red Sox
Erik Swanson vs. Eduardo Rodriguez, 4:10pm
The M’s dropped the final game of their 4-game set with the Yankees, dropping them back to .500 on the year. They head to Boston now, the final stop on this 10-game trek, to face the same Sox team they dominated in their home-opening series. Can the M’s demolish Boston pitching as comprehensively as they did in Seattle? The M’s knocked today’s starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, out of the game in the 5th back in late March, and while he’s improved since a very rough opening week, he’s still been maddeningly inconsistent.
Meanwhile, Erik Swanson is coming off of his best start, another dismantling of the brittle and easily-dismantled Indians. Swanson has now pitched 12 IP of 1 run ball against the Clevelanders, yielding a total of 3 hits. It’s the whole rest-of-the-league thing that’s been a bit trickier, as he’s gone 11 2/3 IP against non-Cleveland teams, giving up 16 runs on 22 hits in that span. Is he one of the M’s more intriguing young starters, or has he just beat up on one of the league’s worst line-ups twice? Today’s game should help us resolve that question.
Swanson features a solid, rising fastball that, when it’s on, seems to sneak up on batters. It’s got solid rise despite average to a bit-below average spin, and he pairs it with a slider and change. Depending on the game, he’ll feature one or the other of those secondaries, largely due to the handedness of the opposing hitters. They had similar grades from talent evaluators, but I suppose I’m a bit partial to his change, which was a revelation in his last start. It doesn’t have the great movement separation from his fastball that I’d like to see, and its velocity separation is, if anything, even worse. That means it’s not going to be a swing-and-miss pitch, and it’s not. But it HAS been a reliable source of ground balls, which is nice when his fastball and slider tend to produce elevated contact.
Rodriguez’s best pitch is a change-up, and that’s more or less the unanimous judgment of scouts. It’s got Swanson-like velocity separation, but it moves more like Marco Gonzales’ version, with lots of horizontal/arm-side run, as opposed to Swanson’s, which tracks his four-seamer. He throws a slider-like cutter at 87, but the change is his best swing-and-miss pitch and the source of his strikeouts. Rodriguez has had injury issues, but put together a very fine season in about 3/4 of a full campaign, setting the stage for what many hoped might be a 3-4-5 WAR year in 2019. So far, that hasn’t really materialized, as a high BABIP and poor strand rate have left his runs-allowed worryingly high. FIP isn’t concerned, and sees him as continuing last year’s mini-breakout. Baseball Prospectus’ DRA thinks he’s been manifestly worse than he was last year, with a 4.62 mark that’s a touch worse than average, and a far cry from the mid-3s that FIP has him at.
1: Haniger, RF
2: Santana, LF
3: Encarnacion, DH
4: Healy, 3B
5: Bruce, 1B
6: Beckham, 2B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Bishop, CF
SP: Swanson
After Dee Gordon injured his hand after being struck by a JA Happ pitch, the M’s were forced to use Edwin Encarnacion at 2B. Today, the M’s rectified this lack of MI depth by calling up both Shed Long and JP Crawford from Tacoma. Long, who came over from the Yankees in a deal for Josh Stowers, has had a solid start to 2019 in Tacoma, leading the team with 5 HRs and posting a SLG% over .500. He’s played lots of 2B with the Rainiers, but has also played 3B. The R’s had scratched JP Crawford last night, leading to speculation that the M’s top SS prospect may be heading up, too. Today, that was confirmed, as Crawford will start today’s game at SS, shifting Tim Beckham back over to 2B, where his defense might play a bit better. Crawford’s the superior defender at SS, but lacks Beckham’s present power.
Long should get a start or two this weekend, and may be available off of the bench. He and Crawford had very similar overall production lines at Tacoma, but they got there differently. Long, who’s struggled a bit with strikeouts, had a lower average and OBP but hit for much more power. Crawford shook off a rough opening week to hit for average and post a well-above .400 OBP thanks to a good walk rate and low strikeouts. That said, his ISO is low for the league (though not for a SS). He’s been a very streaky hitter in his young career, and I hope he gets some help making adjustments to big league pitching. Long may struggle initially with Ks, but he opened some eyes in the Spring, and quite frankly doesn’t need to post a really high average if he can maintain a decent walk rate and knock some extra-base hits.
Arkansas is playing a twin bill with Tulsa today, with Justin Dunn and Reggie McClain starting games 1 and 2, respectively. Tacoma hosts Reno, as Tommy Milone looks to continue a streak of 14+ innings without allowing a run.
Clay Chandler tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball for West Virginia last night. That pushed his ERA *up* to 0.84. Teenager Deivi Florido tossed the 2nd game of a double header for WV and got his first stateside win with 5 Ks in 5 1/3 of 1 run ball. This is the kid who filled in for 2 IP in Tacoma back in April, meaning his very first US-based assignment after playing in the Dominican League last year was at AAA. He’ll be one to watch.
Penn Murfee continues to dominate down in the Cal League, going 4 IP without allowing any runs in a bullpen day game for Modesto. He’s now pitched 13 IP for Modesto with 21 Ks and 2 BBs. He had an up-and-down stint in Tacoma early in the year too, but he can be tough for righties especially to pick up given his low 3/4 or sidearm delivery. Sam Tuivailala pitched in the game last night too as part of his rehab assignment.
Game 40, Mariners at Yankees – Covered in Pine Tar
Mike Leake vs. JA Happ, 3:35pm
The M’s look for a series split today behind Mike Leake as they take on old friend JA Happ and the Yankees. The M’s won last night behind a great start from Yusei Kikuchi, who tossed 7 2/3 IP, and while he didn’t have his strikeout stuff going, he clearly kept the Yankees off balance most of the night.
And Yankee fans think they know why: pine tar. Kikuchi appeared to have a glob of something on the inner brim of his cap, and he went to his cap quite often during the game. Now, why would a pitcher WANT pine tar? About a year ago, baseball was riven by some controversy as Trevor Bauer accused most of the league of using sticky substances to improve spin rates. Bauer claimed that he/Driveline had tested spin rates before/after using pine tar and they found clear, clear evidence that it boosted spin rates by several hundred RPM. Thanks to Statcast, we can now see what happened in last night’s start: did Kikuchi get a boost in fastball/breaking ball spin rates, or was this just a sticky red herring?
According to Statcast, Kikuchi’s four-seam and breaking ball spin rates are below league average, at around 2180 RPM for his fastball. Last night’s start saw his spin rates…drop. His curve (his fastest-spinning pitch) was down about 70 RPM, while his fastball was down about 70-80 RPM. If he was using it to boost his spin rates, the experiment failed. That shouldn’t be a shock, given that he wasn’t getting many whiffs; he had 10 fastball swings-and-misses in his previous start, and just 1 last night (though of course Cleveland’s a terrible hitting team thus far). His average velocity was down slightly last night compared to his start in Cleveland, and given all of the preceding data, it’s no shock that his vertical movement was a bit lower too. All of which points to the fact that spin rate may have been a bit oversold. I think if a specific pitcher can improve his/her spin rate by 300 RPM, that may make batters struggle. But it’s not at all clear that a pitcher with a 2,500RPM fastball has a better heater than a different pitcher with a 2,200RPM fastball.
Today, the M’s face a pitcher with an above-average spin rate in lefty JA Happ, and that rate may have helped him post a few solid seasons with Toronto and with the Yanks last year. This year, though, Happ’s been crushed. His velocity’s down, and with the juiced ball, his HRs-allowed are up sharply, continuing a worrisome trend for him.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Santana, LF
5: Healy, 3B
6: Beckham, SS
7: Vogelbach, DH
8: Murphy, C
9: Bishop, CF
SP: Leake
Game 39, Mariners at Yankees
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Jonathan Loaisiga, 3:35pm
A day after a dispiriting defeat, the M’s try to get back in the win column (and avoid dropping below .500) behind Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is coming off of his best start of the year, a masterful 10K performance against the (admittedly poor-hitting) Indians. He did by studiously avoiding the advice I’d given him about his position on the mound, and we’ll see if he’s able to build on that start and use his fastball to actually miss bats on a regular basis. That’s going to be huge; if he can be a bit more of a power pitcher and a bit less like his crafty lefty pals, the M’s rotation would look rather different.
The M’s offense has been great, but they’ve struggled slightly against velocity. Not too much, mind you, and their wOBA against fastballs at 95 and above ranks 12th in MLB, per statcast, but it’s just a far cry from how well they hit slower fastballs. That seems obvious and all, but every team is different; the Dodgers are hitting velocity much, much better than “regular” fastballs, for instance. Thus, it’s a bit of a concern to see the Yankees hand the ball to Jonathan Loaisiga, one of their seemingly inexhaustible pitching prospects with solid velocity. The righty’s averaging 96 on his straight four-seamer in his brief career, and pairs it with an interesting change at 89 and a hard curve/slider at 84. The change in particular seems good at generating swings/whiffs/grounders, which is a pretty good little trifecta. He saves it for lefties, though, giving righties the breaking ball instead.
That breaking ball’s easier to elevate than the cambio, and thus his overall GB% is quite low. It may not stay in the mid-30s forever, but for now he’s an interesting young arm who gives up a lot of fly balls in his bandbox home park. The route to victory here for the M’s is thus pretty plain, but as we’ve seen, the M’s don’t just need to score more while Loaisiga’s in the game, they need to be winning after their bullpen has had a go. That’s been…an issue, as it was last night. As Rob Mains writes at BP today, we haven’t seen the spread between relievers and starters this narrow in a long, long time. Reliever have traditionally had not only higher K rates, but lower HR/FB rates as well. As teams began building super bullpens, they took innings away from starters and handed them to more and more relievers, and for a while that worked. Starters benefited from more rest, and batters struggled against a parade of seemingly-fungible same-handed guys throwing 95. But that’s starting to slip, both as more innings get spread across a talent pool that may not be deep enough, and as teams sit by and let the actual Craig Kimbrel sit at home and go with a live arm in their system instead.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Haniger, CF
3: Vogelbach, DH
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Santana, LF
6: Bruce, RF
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Moore, SS
SP: Kikuchi