The 2019 Draft: Days Two and Three, Open Thread
As with last year, I feel like the wiser approach for all of us would be to lump together Days Two and Three of the draft rather than come in with a dedicated one for each. Day Three is too madcap anyway to keep proper tabs on. I won’t even really be here to attempt it as I accidentally double-booked myself with a doctor’s appointment Wednesday afternoon, so I’ll probably come in after it’s all over to sweep up and see what’s happened.
To cite a helpful example, ep 51 of The Wheelhouse had some useful commentary on how a GM approaches the draft. Essentially, what Dipoto was told by other general managers is that it’s a real bad idea for the GM to do amateur scouting on their own, because said GM will then weight heavily what they saw and how they were impressed, then use their role as decider-in-chief to overrule members of their team who have a much longer track record to work with. I thought about this a lot during Day One because I know how thin the depth is internally on the infield and got attached to that idea with the good college and prep crop in that specific area. Thus, in private chats I was yelling about wanting to take this or that shortstop, seeing the pick, being confused at another college pitcher in an allegedly thin class, then doing my own poking around and coming to the conclusion that there wasn’t really anything wrong with the selection. I just have to accept that I have my own pet research projects and these dudes have looked at literally hundreds more players than I have. Also consider the fact that last Saturday, West Virginia lost by fifteen and the Rainiers lost by twenty. We need pitching.
If, however, you want your heart broken repeatedly and ride the weird adrenal ups and downs, I’d recommend looking up the “top available” Draft Tracker filter. Some of those dudes, probably more than you might think, are genuinely unsignable (the young Leiter, for example), but others might not be. It’s curious for me in that we’ve backed off the “college first, prep second” mode and now I don’t know whether I ought to expect more preps on day two or more “limited leverage college performers” so that we can scrape together some dollars and go on a real tear through the prep ranks on Day Three. But that’s the draft for you, all sorts of weird rules that keep you from picking the best players in the best order. How unpoetic.
Day Two:
Round Three: RHP Levi Stoudt, 6’1″, 195 lbs, 12/4/97, Lehigh
Round Four: RHP Tim Elliott, 6’1″, 200 lbs, 10/11/97, Georgia
Round Five: 3B Austin Shenton, L/R, 6’0″, 195 lbs, 1/22/98, Florida International
Round Six: RHP Michael Limoncelli, 6’2″, 185 lbs, 5/30/00, Horseheads HS (NY)
Round Seven: LHP Adam Macko, 6’0″, 170 lbs, 12/30/00, Vauxhall HS (AB)
Round Eight: RHP Ty Adcock, 6’0″, 205 lbs, 2/7/97, Elon
Round Nine: SS Mike Salvatore, 6’0″, 185 lbs, 12/27/97, Florida State
Round Ten: RHP Kyle Hill, 5’11”, 200, 5’11, 200 lbs, 5/12/97, Baylor
Analysis:
Again, I have been promised prep picks, for rebuilding. Again, deeply betrayed. I will not soon forget this, I will only forget this about twelve months from now.
As indicated above, my gameplan coming in was to look at infielders and we have instead done pitching, heavily, and I don’t know if we’re the worse for it. My main concern is that nearly all outlets were claiming the college pitching class was not good and that’s exactly where we’ve decided to invest. However, both a really smart org in the Astros and a not-so-smart one in the Giants were drafting only position players at one point, so who knows, really. There’s much to be interested by here, Limoncelli if he’s signable and willing to rehab his TJ with us, Macko likewise if he is willing to forego a college commitment (he’s Slovak and there was talk about him learning how to throw by watching videos of Verlander and mirroring it, I guess). Stoudt and Elliott are both right-handers with some good stuff who for the time being look the part of starters and have no major flaws pressing them into bullpen service. I’m curious what we intend to do with Adcock because we’d have a sense of him as another Elon guy, but he was a backstop in college and only started being a two-way type in his sophomore year. As a Carter Capps fan, I appreciate a dude who can fill in on both sides of a battery. Hill also, belatedly, comes in as your senior college closer, while Salvatore is the Sanders / Walton / whatever type of a lower-dollar shortstop. I suppose that the most interesting of the bunch to me is Shenton, but some of that is off-field as he’s from Bellingham and will presumably play for the Aquasox, is a photographer and an environmentalist, and was projected to be possibly round two or three if not for the fact that he played subpar this spring on account of his mother receiving cancer treatment, which, from personal experience, I get. I think that the kneejerk impression would be “oh, we went college-heavy, again,” but while true, the approach has changed. I would characterize earlier drafts as picking up sure signs on the cheap to make up money elsewhere. While I’m not worried about getting these ones under contract, I would say that the overall quality of this group from one individual to the next is not so wide a spread as we’ve seen in previous years. Except perhaps at the very end, there were no “overdrafts,” nor guys we expect to go far above slot that would keep us from making aggressive Day Three selections. I think that’s wise in that we need pitching depth and it would be better to spread some of that around rather than counting on a few choice individuals. Now if only we could apply the same philosophy to our infield depth….
Day Three:
Round 11: C Carter Bins, R/R, 6’0″, 200 lbs, 5/11/98, Fresno State
Round 12: CF Antoine Mistico, L/R, 6’0″, 180 lbs, 6/30/98, Gateway CC
Round 13: RHP Reid Morgan, 6’0″, 190 lbs, 3/24/97, South Carolina
Round 14: SS Patrick Frick, R/R, 6’2″, 200 lbs, 2/14/97, Wake Forest
Round 15: RHP Anthony Tomczak, 6’2″, 200 lbs, 10/17/00, North Broward Prep (FL)
Round 16: RHP Logan Rineheart, 6’3″, 185 lbs, 9/21/97, Cal Baptist
Round 17: RHP Dutch Landis, 6’2″, 185 lbs, 6/23/01, Liberty HS (NV)
Round 18: RHP Tyler Driver, 6’2″, 185 lbs, 2/4/01, Crossroads FLEX HS (NC)
Round 19: RHP Travis Kuhn, 5’10”, 195 lbs, 5/20/98, San Diego
Round 20: LF Cade Marlowe, L/R, 6’2″, 200 lbs, West Georgia
Round 21: RHP Reeves Martin, 5’8″, 180 lbs, 12/25/96, New Orleans
Round 22: RF Trent Tingelstad, L/R, 5’10”, 215 lbs, 6/14/98, Louisiana-Monroe
Round 23: SS Caleb Ricca, R/R, 5’8″, 165 lbs, 10/21/97, Northwestern State
Round 24: RHP Kipp Rollings, 6’2″, 190 lbs, 9/13/96, North Greenville
Round 25: RHP Fred Villarreal, 5’11”, 190 lbs, 4/7//98, Houston
Round 26: RHP Garrett Westberg, 6’2″, 210 lbs, 2/24/97, Central Florida
Round 27: RHP Brock Minich, 6’6″, 220 lbs, 9/29/96, Nova Southeastern
Round 28: C Anthony Lepre, R/R, 5’10”, 195 lbs, 5/29/97, The Masters
Round 29: SS Utah Jones, S/R, 6’0″, 165 lbs, 5/28/96, North Greenville
Round 30: SS Cody Grosse, L/R, 5’8″, 165 lbs, 12/30/96, Southeastern Louisiana
Round 31: RHP Jacob Meador, 5’10”, 165 lbs, 10/26/00, Centennial HS (TX)
Round 32: CF Jackson Tate, 5’11, 200 lbs, 12/7/98, Lawson State
Round 33: RHP Jarod Bayless, 6’4″, 225 lbs, 12/29/96, Dallas Baptist
Round 34: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, R/R, 6’1″, 215 LBS, 12/1/99, Yavapai
Round 35: C Dominic Tamez, R/R, 5’11”, 195 lbs, 1/12/01, Lady Bird Johnson HS
Round 36: LHP C.J. Mayhue, 6’0″, 185 lbs, 1/22/01, Crest HS (NC)
Round 37: 3B Cole Barr, R/R, 5’11”, 190 lbs, 5/23/98, Indiana
Round 38: CF Jackson Lancaster, L/L, 6’1″, 190 lbs, 3/22/99, Itawamba JC
Round 39: CF Jacob Hurtubise, L/R, 6’0″, 180 lbs, 12/11/97, West Point
Round 40: 2B Perry McMichen, L/R, 5’10”, 180 lbs, 4/18/01, Wyoming HS (OH)
Analysis:
Well, I don’t know what to tell you. Nearly half of our last thirty picks were still pitchers. While looking at the returns somewhere around the late 20s, I thought, “you know, they still have to field eight other positions on the diamond. For two short-season teams.”
I’m not sure entirely where to start with this one. The impulse is generally to draft prep players early in Day Three and see what happens. There wasn’t so much of that here. Tomczak strikes me as the type of prep who doesn’t get scouted too heavily due to a college commitment (Stetson, in this case) and is thus ignored by outlets like BA despite throwing 90+ mph. Ditto Landis, who has better velo and could become more intriguing as he goes from being a two-way type to a full-time pitcher. They both seem to be possible signs. I know less about Driver other than he has a similar build with less velo and thus may benefit from college time. Meador may take too much to buy out of a commitment to TCU though his stuff / spin / command is supposed to be good for a shorter fella, and I’m not much expecting to get Tamez off the Arkansas campus either, nor Mayhue away from Eastern Carolina.
For non-preps, Bins is definitely interesting, and I would add that “Carter” is a good catcher name (or pitcher / catcher) and “Bins” is a good backstop name. He would have been an easy Day Two pick if he had performed at the same level as he did as a sophomore. As it stands, he’d become one of the better in-system backstops and the only “quirk” that leaves me curious is that he hasn’t called his own games yet, which I often forget when it comes to amateur catchers. Mistico, Tate, and Hurtubise are all speedsters who should cover outfield ground and make a mess of things on the basepaths, with Mistico’s combo of LH + speed + arm strength being pretty interesting for a 12th rounder. Perhaps the most fun of our late rounders would be Encarnacion-Strand, whose game overall resembles the guy with the parrot. Barr also has some pop in the bat, but as a draft-eligible sophomore, may not sign. Morgan, Reinhart, and Martin, whom I expect to struggle with getting his names in proper order, all have the look of interesting arms.
* Some surprising local angles came up with Tingelstad being from Marysville and Westberg being from Federal Way, though like Shenton before them, they play across the country. I don’t know if the team still organizes the Mariners Cup where local preps face off against a team of California preps, but I’ll assume that they still did in the range of time all three dudes were in high school.
* Should our 20th round pick do anything that’s unusually distinctive for a baseball player, we would have the opportunity to use an under-utilized adjective in “Marlovian.” God I hope he doesn’t get stabbed in the eye during a bar fight after being accused of being a spy.
* If Utah Jones doesn’t have “Banana Phone” as his walk-up music, wasted opportunity.
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Let me just say I’m pissed that the Rays got to Ben Brecht because I have all these Brecht references I can’t use now. Someone nickname him “Baal,” please. Let him walk out to the best version of “Mack the Knife,” I beg of you.
A good portion of my draft commentary is just an imaginary conversation between myself and Marc or some other literary type so I also lament that Elliott’s middle name begins with an A and not an S (and yes, I know, Tim, not Tom)
As a fan of the occasional cocktail, I like the pick of Michael Limoncelli, with the caveat that he’s a guy who has recently had Tommy John surgery and that we should have no expectation of seeing him on the mound this year, if he’s even signable.
There’s an idea… instead of scouting, we’ll just take picks by a sort of modified Dewey Decimal System for literature.
Other thought/question as we drift further into this Bermuda Triangle of a season on our Raft of the Medusa and given that we were not really expecting to compete this year (right?): what exactly about the core of this restoration job are we supposed to be seeing at this point?
I see bits and pieces laying on the tool bench and scattered across the floor, but for the life of me I can’t see the frame. Maybe I missed something.
As for current skid marks on the garage floor, it’s pretty obvious The Thing is happening, and it’s being both contagious and persistent.
I’ll still go to a few games this summer, but it’s less like watching baseball, and more like watching experimental surgery.
Honestly, I tried to gesture at it above but we had two desperate needs that the draft strengths happened to align with in infield depth and pitching. So far we’ve gone far more to the latter than the former. As far as what sense we’re supposed to be getting from the rebuild job, I think my own is that even though we were talking in the short-term about grooming Shed Long for a super utility role, the reality is that we’re going to be likely using him and Crawford as the middle infield of the immediate future as any internal replacements are years out in Marte and Querecuto. To not have gone back to that just yet puts a whole lot of pressure on those two to be “the guys.” I’d similarly note that I’m worried about Seager having a sort of “early rise, early fall” career and don’t see any sort of heir apparent in system and so I’m curious what we think of our corner infield depth, especially when all is riding on Evan White at the other corner. Outfield looks set with replacements upon replacements for the near-future until something solidifies, and I don’t think that this is necessarily the bad approach in Safeco, but the lack of any form of redundancy on the infield unnerves me.
Thanks Jay. Just reading that… whoah. It’s like, there’s no there there. And you know what’s odd is that any other year this would have generated the usual frustration. But this year: totally inoculated (even, I admit it, about Felix). It’s the strangest thing…
Right, I’m feeling rather similarly about it. I haven’t really objected to any of these pitchers being taken, even though my own priority would have been to snap up a high ceiling infielder.
They have to sign/rehab Limoncelli, or the draft looks a bit conservative.
To put on my literary (kind of) hat, can we call Levi Stoudt “Claude”?
I hope he has a good understanding of the structure of minor league baseball, or his own structure with regard to his mechanics.
I’m jonesing for MI and catcher and breathing into a bag. I do predict that somewhere around Rd 15 we’ll draft Dan Wilson’s kid, Eli.
So that’s something
We’re probably getting Limoncelli
https://www.stargazette.com/story/sports/high-school/2019/06/04/mariners-draft-horseheads-star-mike-limoncelli-sixth-round/1343234001/
For those tracking at home:
M’s Catcher Bins from FSU in 11th. Eli Wilson in 14th to PITT.
It is finished.
So, I’ve had plenty of questions regarding infield depth as well, and with the flurry of extensions, it’s even more surprising that there wasn’t more interest in infielders.
Maybe trading Haniger wouldn’t be the worst idea. That would be one way to nab a solid prospect or two.